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Basic Mechanisms of Solar Variability

In order to simulate the behavior of a changing Sun in a realistic way, researchers have used a perturbation analysis (the results are summarized in Endal et al. 1985). In this approach, they use a standard solar model and then vary several of the model parameters to mimic the sudden or gradual change of some physical property within the Sun. The evolution following the perturbation is followed in a physically self-consistent way, that is, hydrostatic and thermal processes occur in their normal timescales. This treatment has allowed us to determine the sensitivity of the various global parameters to physical processes affecting the solar interior, and it has guided us in defining the least complex global solar model which can address the question of climatically significant variability. Not surprisingly, magnetic fields play the crucial role. The current status of the model, what researchers have already learned from it, and the future prospects are discussed.

Sofia, Sabatino↗

Solar irradiance variability during solar cycles 21 and 22

Total solar irradiance observations by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) on the Solar Maximum Mission, the Nimbus 7/Earth Radiation Budget (ERB), the NASA/Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS), and NOAA 9/Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) are combined to demonstrate the characteristics of the variation of solar luminosity over the solar cycles 21 and 22 between 1978 and 1990. Observations of solar Lyman Alpha and 10.7 MHz fluxes are used to demonstrate a total irradiance variability asymmetry relative to the maximum of solar activity.

Willson, Richard C.↗

A brief review of the evidence for solar variability on the planets

An outline of the most recent and complete reviews on the history of Martian climate is presented and compared to the history of terrestrial climate. Suggestions are made on how solar luminosity changes may have affected both planets. Observations of the albedo of Titan occurring over a solar cycle are discussed, and the solar mechanisms that might be responsible for the observed albedo changes are considered.

Toon, O. B.↗

Periodicities in the occurrence of aurora as indicators of solar variability

A compilation of records of the aurora observed in China from the Time of the Legends (2000 - 3000 B.C.) to the mid-18th century has been used to infer the frequencies and strengths of solar activity prior to modern times. A merging of this analysis with auroral and solar activity patterns during the last 200 years provides basically continuous information about solar activity during the last 2000 years. The results show periodicities in solar activity that contain average components with a long period (approx. 412 years), three middle periods (approx. 38 years, approx. 77 years, and approx. 130 years), and the well known short period (approx. 11 years).

Nian-Zu, D.↗

A search for short-term meteorological effects of solar variability in an atmospheric circulation model

A set of numerical experiments is carried out to test the short-range sensitivity of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global atmospheric general-circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. These experiments consist of forecasts initiated with actual atmospheric data. One set of forecasts is made with a standard version of the model; another set uses the model modified by very different values of the solar constant (two-thirds and three-halves of the standard value) and of the ozone amount (zero and twice the standard amount). Twelve-day integrations with these very large variations show such small effects that the effects of realistic variations would almost certainly be insignificant meteorologically on this time scale.

Somerville, R. C. J.↗

Solar variability and ozone

Stratospheric temperature and concentration of ozone above 26 km, as measured by rocket-borne instruments, showed an increase from 1964 to 1969-70, and a decline between 1970 and 1975, closely following the solar cycle, which peaked in 1969 (+0.89 correlation at both 35 and 50 km). Similar correlations were found between the ozone density and the 10.7 cm solar radio flux (as measured by the Nimbus IV satellite), and between ozone column density and the Lyman-alpha flux, both observations being taken over the same 10 month period. A mechanism is hypothesized which would link solar flux variation with both changes in stratospheric temperature and concentration of ozone (which is produced by the photodissociation of stratospheric oxygen molecules by solar radiation in the ultraviolet wavelength region).

Callis, L. B.↗

Influence of magnetic pressure on stellar structure: A Mechanism for solar variability

A physical mechanism is proposed that couples the Sun's dynamo magnetic field to its gravitational potential energy. The mechanism involves the isotropic field pressure resulting in a lifting force on the convective envelope, thereby raising its potential energy. Decay of the field due to solar activity allows the envelop to subside and releases this energy, which can augment the otherwise steady solar luminosity. Equations are developed and applied to the Sun for several field configurations. The best estimate model suggests that uniform luminosity variations as large as 0.02% for half a sunspot cycle may occur. Brief temporal variations or the rotation of spatial structures could allow larger excursions in the energy released.

Schatten, K. H.↗

Solar variability and terrestrial weather

The present review article indicates that the past four years have been very active in the field of sun-weather research in the U.S. Some quite specific questions which have arisen from recent research include the time variation of the VAL vs SB effect; the nature of the clear-air electric field; the relationship of the ionospheric potential to thunderstorm formation; and the constancy of the solar 'constant' both in terms of the total luminosity on the climatic time scale and for near UV radiation on the time scale of days to 11 years.

Scherrer, P. H.↗

The Global Infrared Energy Budget of the Thermosphere from 1947 to 2016 and Implications for Solar Variability

We present an empirical model of the global infrared energy budget of the thermosphere over the past 70 years. The F(sub 10.7), Ap, and Dst indices are used in linear regression fits to the 14.5 year time series of radiative cooling by carbon dioxide and nitric oxide measured by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the TIMED satellite. Databases of these indices are used to develop the radiative cooling time series from 1947. No consistent relation between the occurrence of peak sunspot number and peak infrared cooling is found over the past six solar cycles. The total infrared energy radiated by the thermosphere, integrated over a solar cycle, is nearly constant over five complete solar cycles studied. This is a direct consequence of the geoeffective solar energy also being nearly constant over the same intervals. These results provide a new metric for assessing the terrestrial context of the long‐term record of solar‐related indices.

Mlynczak, Martin G.↗

The K2-dwarf V471 TAU: a Stellar Version of Solar Variability

Simultaneous observations of the rotational modulation with a 1/2 day period of chromospheric H alpha emission and of broadband irradiance for the K2-dwarf in V471 Tau are presented. The observations cover eight rotation periods but do not cover the full surface of the dwarf because of timing constraints. Preliminary results show a phase relation between enhanced chromospheric emission and continuum darkening similar to that observed on the Sun. A comparison with chromospheric Mg II resonance emission modulation observed about 2 1/4 years earlier by Guinan and Sion shows that the same active longitude is involved. This is either coincidental due to lucky phasing or it signifies a stable longitude that has persisted for hundreds of rotations.

Skumanich, A.↗

Substorm recurrence during steady and variable solar wind driving: Evidence for a normal mode in the unloading dynamics of the magnetosphere

Farrugia et al (1993) have recently studied substorm activity driven by the passage of an interplanetary magnetic cloud during which the interplanetary magnetic field turned southward for approximately 18 hours. It was shown that both the epsilon and the VB(sub s) parameters varied slowly on the timescale of a substorm but changed considerably over the interval as a whole. The substorm occurrence rate did not reflect the variation in magnetospheric energy loading rate as measured by these parameters but, rather, remained roughly constant with a 50-min average period. Klimas et al. (1992) showed that the Faraday loop analog model of geomagnetic activity predicts this single unloading rate under various constant loading rates. However, various model parameters were adjusted to yield a 1-hour unloading period in agreement with the Bargatze et al. (1985) linear prediction filters and in approximate agreement with the Farrugia et al. (1993) results. It has since been found necessary to add a slow relaxation mechanism to the Faraday loop model to allow for its approach to a ground state during long periods of inactivity. It is proposed that the relaxation mechanism is provided by slow convection of magnetic flux out of the magnetotail to the dayside magnetosphere. In addition, a rudimentary representation of magnetotail-ionosphere coupling has been added to enable comparison of model output to measured AL. The present study is of the modified Faraday loop model response to solar wind input from the Bargatze et al. data set with comparison of its output to concurrent AL. This study has removed the degree of freedom in parameter choice that had earlier allowed adjustments toward the 1-hour unloading period and has, instead, yielded the 1-hour unloading period under various constant loading rates. It is demonstrated that the second peak of the bimodal Bargatze et al. linear prediction filters at approximately equal 1-hour lag and the approximately constant substorm recurrence rate observed by Farrugia et al. can be interpreted as both being due to the existence of a normal unloading recurrence period in the dynamics of the magnetosphere.

Klimas, A. J.↗

Solar Variability and the Near-Earth Environment: Mining Enhanced Low Dose Rate Sensitivity Data From the Microelectronics and Photonics Test Bed Space Experiment

This effort is a detailed analysis of existing microelectronics and photonics test bed satellite data from one experiment, the bipolar test board, looking to improve our understanding of the enhanced low dose rate sensitivity (ELDRS) phenomenon. Over the past several years, extensive total dose irradiations of bipolar devices have demonstrated that many of these devices exhibited ELDRS. In sensitive bipolar transistors, ELDRS produced enhanced degradation of base current, resulting in enhanced gain degradation at dose rates <0.1 rd(Si)/s compared to similar transistors irradiated at dose rates >1 rd(Si)/s. This Technical Publication provides updated information about the test devices, the in-flight experiment, and both flight-and ground-based observations. Flight data are presented for the past 5 yr of the mission. These data are compared to ground-based data taken on devices from the same date code lots. Information about temperature fluctuations, power shutdowns, and other variables encountered during the space flight are documented.

Turflinger, T.↗

A Footprint of Solar Variability Variability on Climate

An 11-year variation is shown here to exist in an index of the atmospheric variability defined as the difference between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices.

UV North Atlantic Oscillation El Nino↗