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Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft- and Satellite-based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on Estimates of Hurricane Intensity

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor currently under development to enhance real-time hurricane ocean surface wind observations. HIRAD builds on the capabilities of the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which now operates on NOAA P-3, G-4, and AFRC C-130 aircraft. Unlike the SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (approximately 3 times the aircraft altitude). To demonstrate potential improvement in the measurement of peak hurricane winds, we present a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing platforms (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a high-resolution (approximately 1.7 km) numerical model. Simulated retrieval errors due to both instrument noise as well as model function accuracy are considered over the expected range of incidence angles, wind speeds and rain rates. Based on numerous simulated flight patterns and data source combinations, statistics are developed to describe relationships between the observed and true (from the model s perspective) peak wind speed. These results have implications for improving the estimation of hurricane intensity (as defined by the peak sustained wind anywhere in the storm), which may often go un-observed due to sampling limitations.

Uhlhorn, Eric↗

TIGER Burned Brightly in JAMIC

The Transition From Ignition to Flame Growth Under External Radiation in 3D (TIGER- 3D) experiment, which is slated to fly aboard the International Space Station, conducted a series of highly successful tests in collaboration with the University of Hokkaido using Japan's 10-sec JAMIC drop tower. The tests were conducted to test engineering versions of advanced flight diagnostics such as an infrared camera for detailed surface temperature measurements and an infrared spectroscopic array for gas-phase species concentrations and temperatures based on detailed spectral emissions in the near infrared. Shown in the top figure is a visible light image and in the bottom figure is an infrared image at 3.8 mm obtained during the microgravity tests. The images show flames burning across cellulose samples against a slow wind of a few centimeters per second (wind is from right to left). These flow velocities are typical of spacecraft ventilation systems that provide fresh air for the astronauts. The samples are ignited across the center with a hot wire, and the flame is allowed to spread upwind and/or downwind. As these images show, the flames prefer to spread upwind, into the fresh air, which is the exact opposite of flames on Earth, which spread much faster downwind, or with the airflow, as in forest fires.

Olson, Sandra L.↗

Aerosol Source Plume Physical Characteristics from Space-based Multiangle Imaging

Models that assess aerosol effects on regional air quality and global climate parameterize aerosol sources in terms of amount, type, and injection height. The multiangle imaging spectroradiometer (MISR) aboard NASA's Terra satellite retrieves total column aerosol optical thickness (AOT), and aerosol type over cloud-free land and water. A stereo-matching algorithm automatically retrieves reflecting-layer altitude wherever clouds or aerosol plumes have discernable spatial contrast, with about 500-m accuracy, at 1.1-km horizontal resolution. Near-source biomass burning smoke, volcanic effluent, and desert dust plumes are observed routinely, providing information about aerosol amount, particle type, and injection height useful for modeling applications. Compared to background aerosols, the plumes sampled have higher AOT, contain particles having expected differences in Angstrom exponent, size, single-scattering albedo, and for volcanic plume and dust cloud cases, particle shape. As basic thermodynamics predicts, thin aerosol plumes lifted only by regional winds or less intense heat sources are confined to the boundary layer. However, when sources have sufficient buoyancy, the representative plumes studied tend to concentrate within discrete, high-elevation layers of local stability; the aerosol is not uniformly distributed up to a peak altitude, as is sometimes assumed in modeling. MISR-derived plume heights, along with meteorological profile data from other sources, make it possible to relate radiant energy flux observed by the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), also aboard the Terra spacecraft, to convective heat flux that plays a major role in buoyant plume dynamics. A MISR climatology of plume behavior based on these results is being developed.

aerosol plumes↗

Climate Change Adaptation Science Activities at NASA Johnson Space Center

The Johnson Space Center (JSC), located in the southeast metropolitan region of Houston, TX is the prime NASA center for human spaceflight operations and astronaut training, but it also houses the unique collection of returned extraterrestrial samples, including lunar samples from the Apollo missions. The Center's location adjacent to Clear Lake and the Clear Creek watershed, an estuary of Galveston Bay, puts it at direct annual risk from hurricanes, but also from a number of other climate-related hazards including drought, floods, sea level rise, heat waves, and high wind events all assigned Threat Levels of 2 or 3 in the most recent NASA Center Disaster/Risk Matrix produced by the Climate Adaptation Science Investigator Working Group. Based on prior CASI workshops at other NASA centers, it is recognized that JSC is highly vulnerable to climate-change related hazards and has a need for adaptation strategies. We will present an overview of prior CASI-related work at JSC, including publication of a climate change and adaptation informational data brochure, and a Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Risks Workshop that was held at JSC in early March 2012. Major outcomes of that workshop that form a basis for work going forward are 1) a realization that JSC is embedded in a regional environmental and social context, and that potential climate change effects and adaptation strategies will not, and should not, be constrained by the Center fence line; 2) a desire to coordinate data collection and adaptation planning activities with interested stakeholders to form a regional climate change adaptation center that could facilitate interaction with CASI; 3) recognition that there is a wide array of basic data (remotely sensed, in situ, GIS/mapping, and historical) available through JSC and other stakeholders, but this data is not yet centrally accessible for planning purposes.

Stefanov, William L.↗

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Moon and Mercury

The session" Moon and Mercury" included the following reports:Helium Production of Prompt Neutrinos on the Moon; Vapor Deposition and Solar Wind Implantation on Lunar Soil-Grain Surfaces as Comparable Processes; A New Lunar Geologic Mapping Program; Physical Backgrounds to Measure Instantaneous Spin Components of Terrestrial Planets from Earth with Arcsecond Accuracy; Preliminary Findings of a Study of the Lunar Global Megaregolith; Maps Characterizing the Lunar Regolith Maturity; Probable Model of Anomalies in the Polar Regions of Mercury; Parameters of the Maximum of Positive Polarization of the Moon; Database Structure Development for Space Surveying Results by Moon -Zond Program; CM2-type Micrometeoritic Lunar Winds During the Late Heavy Bombardment; A Comparison of Textural and Chemical Features of Spinel Within Lunar Mare Basalts; The Reiner Gamma Formation as Characterized by Earth-based Photometry at Large Phase Angles; The Significance of the Geometries of Linear Graben for the Widths of Shallow Dike Intrusions on the Moon; Lunar Prospector Data, Surface Roughness and IR Thermal Emission of the Moon; The Influence of a Magma Ocean on the Lunar Global Stress Field Due to Tidal Interaction Between the Earth and Moon; Variations of the Mercurian Photometric Relief; A Model of Positive Polarization of Regolith; Ground Truth and Lunar Global Thorium Map Calibration: Are We There Yet?;and Space Weathering of Apollo 16 Sample 62255: Lunar Rocks as Witness Plates for Deciphering Regolith Formation Processes.

Source record↗

Catalog of solar wind events identified from observations by ISTP spacecraft

The ISTP Science Planning and Operations Facility (SPOF), in collaboration with ISTP investigators, is developing a catalog of solar wind events and features. The catalog is primarily based on plasma and magnetic field observations from the WIND and IMP-8 spacecraft. Interplanetary events that may trigger magnetospheric activity are included as well as features of interest for using the solar wind as a plasma laboratory. Catalog coverage begins on September 8, 1992, the start of ISTP science data collection. The catalog is based on Key Parameter data sets (preliminary summary data at approximately 1 min time resolution produced quickly for survey purposes) and as such has limited citability in formal scientific work. Its primary intent is to serve as a reference for identifying candidate periods for further study, such as may be the focus of coordinated data analysis efforts during ISTP and/or IACG Science Campaigns. To facilitate access by members of the ISTP and wider space physics communities, the catalog will be available on the World Wide Web. The contents of the catalog will be described, and samples of catalog information will be presented.

Peredo, M.↗

Distributed Observations of Auroral Electrodynamics From the Geospace Dynamics Constellation

The Geospace Dynamics Constellation (GDC), with an anticipated launch by the end of thedecade, can provide a unique dataset and modeling effort to support heterogeneousdistributed studies of auroral electrodynamics. On its own, GDC will fully characterize thelarger scale context for auroral electrodynamics, including the electric Meld/ion drift, plasmawaves and irregularities/small-scale structure, Meld-aligned and horizontal current, andenergetic electron and ion populations, with multipoint measurements that can assesslongitudinal gradients on scales of 300+ km, and in-track/latitudinal scales of approximately10 km, on timescales ranging from seconds to tens of minutes. In addition, GDC will fullycharacterize the thermosphere and ionosphere populations, including new capabilities likemeasurements of 3-d neutral wind, and detailed assessment of the neutral and ioncomposition and the plasma density proMles.When added to other space-based and ground-based assets, which may provide Mne-scaleelectrodynamics, time history of energy inputs and forcing, or altitude proMles of plasma driftsand density, the combined heterogeneous dataset will represent a groundbreaking opportunityto advance the science of auroral electrodynamics. GDC is particularly well suited as a'strategic hub' that can be leveraged by other observation campaigns with focus on GDC-adjacent science. For example, constellations of satellites able to measure Mne-scalestructure, or sounding rocket missions, or dedicated ground-based observing campaigns, inconjunction with advanced local-scale and regional-scale modeling show great promise incoordination with GDC.We will present the current status of GDC, its sampling scheme, measurement parameters,and a summary of instrumentation, in addition to several potential sampling scenarios thatmay be of particular interest for studies of auroral electrodynamics.

Douglas E Rowland↗

Sampling and Representativeness for a Spaceborne Wind Lidar

The capability of an Earth-orbiting lidar to produce a reliable windfield sampling with an error of 1-3 ms(exp -1) and that is relevant to numerical forecasting and climate studies is discussed. The spatial and temporal resolutions range from 100 km to 1000 km and 3 hr to 1 month respectively. In this respect cloud obstruction is of great concern, as it can prevent the lidar probing whole parts of the atmosphere, for both short and long periods of time. A worldwide analysis of cloudiness from either visual observations made from the ground or else from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) instrument, has shown that the average cloud cover is 60 percent. This analysis is only valid at large scales (time and space) compatible with the currently operating satellites. However, a lidar footprint is only about a hundred meters or less, and it was observed from ground based lidars that, even when the cloudiness is 100 percent, some lidar shots get through. A complete analysis of the probability of probing through clouds by a spaceborne lidar is presently beyond our capacities. Hence, no small scale cloudiness data set is yet available representing all kinds of meteorological situations at all latitudes.

Lieutaud, F.↗

Coherent lidar design and performance verification

The verification of LAWS beam alignment in space can be achieved by a measurement of heterodyne efficiency using the surface return. The crucial element is a direct detection signal that can be identified for each surface return. This should be satisfied for LAWS but will not be satisfied for descoped LAWS. The performance of algorithms for velocity estimation can be described with two basic parameters: the number of coherently detected photo-electrons per estimate and the number of independent signal samples per estimate. The average error of spectral domain velocity estimation algorithms are bounded by a new periodogram Cramer-Rao Bound. Comparison of the periodogram CRB with the exact CRB indicates a factor of two improvement in velocity accuracy is possible using non-spectral domain estimators. This improvement has been demonstrated with a maximum-likelihood estimator. The comparison of velocity estimation algorithms for 2 and 10 micron coherent lidar was performed by assuming all the system design parameters are fixed and the signal statistics are dominated by a 1 m/s rms wind fluctuation over the range gate. The beam alignment requirements for 2 micron are much more severe than for a 10 micron lidar. The effects of the random backscattered field on estimating the alignment error is a major problem for space based lidar operation, especially if the heterodyne efficiency cannot be estimated. For LAWS, the biggest science payoff would result from a short transmitted pulse, on the order of 0.5 microseconds instead of 3 microseconds. The numerically errors for simulation of laser propagation in the atmosphere have been determined as a joint project with the University of California, San Diego. Useful scaling laws were obtained for Kolmogorov atmospheric refractive turbulence and an atmospheric refractive turbulence characterized with an inner scale. This permits verification of the simulation procedure which is essential for the evaluation of the effects of refractive turbulence on coherent Doppler lidar systems. The analysis of 2 micron Doppler lidar data from Coherent Technologies, Inc. (CTI) has demonstrated many of the advantages of doppler lidar measurements of boundary layer winds. The effects of wind shear and wind turbulence over the pulse volume are probably the dominant source of the reduced performance. The effects of wind shear and wind turbulence on the statistical description of doppler lidar data has been derived and calculated.

Frehlich, Rod↗

Operational evaluation of thunderstorm penetration test flights during project Storm Hazards '80

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is conducting a research project called Storm Hazards '80 in order to study the prediction, detectability and avoidance of the hazards of severe storms for aircraft operations. The project, using a highly instrumented NASA F-106B airplane to penetrate thunderstorms, gathered and correlated data from both airborne and ground based instrumentation. The objectives of this project are to determine the effects of lightning on the design and operation of aircraft composite structures and digital electronic systems. The data will be used to determine the correlation of lightning hazards with other severe storm hazards, such as heavy precipitation, hail, turbulence and wind-shear, in order to develop an initial data base for use in design and avoidance. The NASA F-106B was equipped with a weather radar, stormscope, lightning measurement instrumentation and air sampling equipment. This paper will focus on the operational aspects of thunderstorm penetrations and the pilot techniques used to avoid the extremely hazardous portions of the storm such as the tornadoes and hail. It will deal with the effects of the storm elements on the aircraft hardware, avionics and the crew.

Keyser, G. L., Jr.↗

Discovery and Analysis of Rare High-Impact Failure Modes using Adversarial RL-Informed Sampling

Adaptive learning agents have tremendous potential to handle critical tasks currently performed by humans. Unfortunately, due to their complexity, it can be difficult to verify that these learning agents do not have critical failure modes. Standard verification and validation methods often do not apply directly to learning agents and Monte Carlo methods have difficulty covering even a small fraction of the state space, especially in multiagent systems or over long time horizons. To overcome this difficulty, we demonstrate an adaptive stress-testing method based on reinforcement learning of correlations that raise the probability of failure. This approach has three key properties: (1) it is able to find rare failure modes with far greater sample efficiency than Monte Carlo methods, (2) it can estimate the true probability of a failure mode despite the inherent bias in the learning method, and (3) it is capable of learning and resampling compact representations of multimodal failure spaces. These properties are important in practice as we need to find disparate failure modes while accounting for their actual relevance. This is a significant advantage over traditional adaptive stress testing methods that give abstract likelihoods of particular failure instances, but cannot estimate the probability of a broader failure mode. We test our algorithm on a simple problem from the aviation domain where an autonomous aircraft lands in gusty wind conditions. The results suggest that we can find failure modes with far fewer samples than the Monte Carlo approach and simultaneously estimate the probability of failure.

reinforcement learning↗

Discovery and Analysis of Rare High-Impact Failure Modes using Adversarial RL-Informed Sampling

Adaptive learning agents have tremendous potential to handle critical tasks currently performed by humans. Unfortunately, due to their complexity, it can be difficult to verify that these learning agents do not have critical failure modes. Standard verification and validation methods often do not apply directly to learning agents and Monte Carlo methods have difficulty covering even a small fraction of the state space, especially in multiagent systems or over long time horizons. To overcome this difficulty, we demonstrate an adaptive stress-testing method based on reinforcement learning of correlations that raise the probability of failure. This approach has three key properties: (1) it is able to find rare failure modes with far greater sample efficiency than Monte Carlo methods, (2) it can estimate the true probability of a failure mode despite the inherent bias in the learning method, and (3) it is capable of learning and resampling compact representations of multimodal failure spaces. These properties are important in practice as we need to find disparate failure modes while accounting for their actual relevance. This is a significant advantage over traditional adaptive stress testing methods that give abstract likelihoods of particular failure instances, but cannot estimate the probability of a broader failure mode. We test our algorithm on a simple problem from the aviation domain where an autonomous aircraft lands in gusty wind conditions. The results suggest that we can find failure modes with far fewer samples than the Monte Carlo approach and simultaneously estimate the probability of failure.

Validation↗

Discovery and Analysis of Rare High-Impact Failure Modes using Adversarial RL-Informed Sampling

Adaptive learning agents have tremendous potential to handle critical tasks currently performed by humans. Unfortunately, due to their complexity, it can be difficult to verify that these learning agents do not have critical failure modes. Standard verification and validation methods often do not apply directly to learning agents and Monte Carlo methods have difficulty covering even a small fraction of the state space, especially in multiagent systems or over long time horizons. To overcome this difficulty, we demonstrate an adaptive stress-testing method based on reinforcement learning of correlations that raise the probability of failure. This approach has three key properties: (1) it is able to find rare failure modes with far greater sample efficiency than Monte Carlo methods, (2) it can estimate the true probability of a failure mode despite the inherent bias in the learning method, and (3) it is capable of learning and resampling compact representations of multimodal failure spaces. These properties are important in practice as we need to find disparate failure modes while accounting for their actual relevance. This is a significant advantage over traditional adaptive stress testing methods that give abstract likelihoods of particular failure instances, but cannot estimate the probability of a broader failure mode. We test our algorithm on a simple problem from the aviation domain where an autonomous aircraft lands in gusty wind conditions. The results suggest that we can find failure modes with far fewer samples than the Monte Carlo approach and simultaneously estimate the probability of failure.

Validation↗

An Overview of the NASA ADM-Aeolus Cal/Val Test Flight Campaign

Lidars are uniquely capable of collecting high precision and high spatio-temporal observations that have been used for atmospheric process studies from the ground, aircraft, and space for over 30 years. The Atmospheric Dynamics Mission Aeolus (ADM-Aeolus), the first-ever spaceborne Doppler wind lidar, was developed by the European Space Agency and launched in August 2018. The ADM-Aeolus Atmospheric Laser Doppler Instrument (ALADIN) observes profiles of the component of the wind vector and aerosol optical properties along the instrument’s line-of-sight direction on a global scale. Two airborne lidar systems have been developed at NASA Langley Research Center in recent years that collect measurements in support of several NASA Earth Science Division focus areas. The Doppler Aerosol WiNd (DAWN) lidar measures vertical profiles of horizontal wind speed and direction. The High Altitude Lidar Observatory (HALO) measure high resolution profiles of atmospheric water vapor (WV) and aerosol and cloud optical properties. Though new space-based missions with advanced capabilities such as Aeolus are continuously being conceived and developed, there are limitations in terms of spatial and vertical detail and measurement precision that can be accomplished from space, thus airborne remote sensing observations like those from DAWN and HALO are required to fill these observational gaps as well as to calibrate and validate space-based measurements. Over a two-week period in April 2019 during their Aeolus Cal/Val Test Flight campaign, NASA conducted five research flights over the Eastern Pacific Ocean with the DC-8 aircraft to 1) demonstrate the DAWN Doppler wind lidar, HALO high spectral resolution lidar aerosol/cloud measurement and differential absorption lidar WV measurement capabilities across a range of atmospheric conditions, 2) demonstrate Aeolus Cal/Val flight strategies and compare DAWN and HALO measurements with Aeolus to gain an initial perspective of Aeolus performance, and 3) demonstrate how atmospheric dynamic processes can be resolved and better understood through simultaneous observations of wind, WV, and aerosol profile observations, coupled with numerical model and other remote sensing observations. This paper provides a brief description of the DAWN and HALO instruments, discusses the synergistic observations collected across a wide range of atmospheric conditions sampled during the DC-8 flights, and a summary of the validation of DAWN, HALO, and Aeolus observations and comparisons.

Kristopher M. Bedka↗

A Comparison of the Automated Meteorological Profiling System High Resolution Flight Element to the Kennedy Space Center 50 MHz Doppler Wind Profiler

Wind profile measurement and the simulation of aerodynamic loads on a launch vehicle play an important role in determining launch capability and post launch assessment of the vehicle's performance. To date, all United States range certified wind profile measurement systems have been based on balloon tracking. Since the 1960's, the standard used by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Air Force at the Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) for detailed wind profile measurements has been the radar tracked, aerodynamically stabilized Jimsphere balloon system. Currently, the Air Force is nearing certification and operational implementation of the Automated Meteorological Profiling System (AMPS) at CCAS and Vandenburg Air Force Base (VAFB). AMPS uses the Global Positioning System for tracking the Jimsphere balloon. It is anticipated that the AMPS/Jimsphere, named the High Resolution Flight Element (HRFE), will have equivalent, or better resolution than the radar tracked Jimsphere, especially when the balloon is far downrange, at a low elevation angle. By the 1980's, the development of Doppler Wind Profilers (DWP) had become sufficiently advanced to justify an experimental measurement program at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In 1989 a 50 MHz DWP was installed at KSC. In principal, the 50 MHz DWP has the capability to track the evolution of wind profile dynamics within 5 minutes of a launch. Because of fundamental differences in the measurement technique, there is a significant time and space differential between 50 MHz DWP and HRFE wind profiles. This paper describes a study to quantify these differences from a sample of 50 MHz DWP/HRFE pairs obtained during the AMPS certification test program.

Roberts, Barry C.↗

Reliability analysis in the Office of Safety, Environmental, and Mission Assurance (OSEMA)

The technical personnel in the SEMA office are working to provide the highest degree of value-added activities to their support of the NASA Langley Research Center mission. Management perceives that reliability analysis tools and an understanding of a comprehensive systems approach to reliability will be a foundation of this change process. Since the office is involved in a broad range of activities supporting space mission projects and operating activities (such as wind tunnels and facilities), it was not clear what reliability tools the office should be familiar with and how these tools could serve as a flexible knowledge base for organizational growth. Interviews and discussions with the office personnel (both technicians and engineers) revealed that job responsibilities ranged from incoming inspection to component or system analysis to safety and risk. It was apparent that a broad base in applied probability and reliability along with tools for practical application was required by the office. A series of ten class sessions with a duration of two hours each was organized and scheduled. Hand-out materials were developed and practical examples based on the type of work performed by the office personnel were included. Topics covered were: Reliability Systems - a broad system oriented approach to reliability; Probability Distributions - discrete and continuous distributions; Sampling and Confidence Intervals - random sampling and sampling plans; Data Analysis and Estimation - Model selection and parameter estimates; and Reliability Tools - block diagrams, fault trees, event trees, FMEA. In the future, this information will be used to review and assess existing equipment and processes from a reliability system perspective. An analysis of incoming materials sampling plans was also completed. This study looked at the issues associated with Mil Std 105 and changes for a zero defect acceptance sampling plan.

Kauffmann, Paul J.↗

MESSENGER Searches for Less Abundant or Weakly Emitting Species in Mercury's Exosphere

Mercury's exosphere is composed of material that originates at the planet's surface, whether that material is native or delivered by the solar wind and micrometeoroids. Many exospheric species have been detected by remote sensing, including H and He by Mariner 10, Na, K, and Ca by ground-based observations, and H, Na, Ca, Mg, and Ca+ by the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft. Other exospheric species, including Fe, AI, Si, 0, S, Mn, CI, Ti, OH, and their ions, are expected to be present on the basis of MESSENGER surface measurements and models of Mercury's surface chemistry. Here we report on searches for these species made with the Ultraviolet and Visible Spectrometer (UVVS) channel of the Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer (MASCS). No obvious signatures of the listed species have yet been observed in Mercury's exosphere by the UVVS as of this writing. It is possible that detections are elusive because the optimum regions of the exosphere have not been sampled. The Sun-avoidance constraints on MESSENGER place tight limits on instrument boresight directions, and some regions are probed infrequently. If there are strong spatial gradients in the distribution of weakly emitting species, a high-resolution sampling of specific regions may be required to detect them. Summing spectra over time will also aid in the ability to detect weaker emission. Observations to date nonetheless permit strong upper limits to be placed on the abundances of many undetected species, in some cases as functions of time and space. As those limits are lowered with time, the absence of detections can provide insight into surface composition and the potential source mechanisms of exospheric material.

Vervack, Ronald J., Jr.↗

Total Lightning Observations of Extreme Weather Events over the Contiguous United States

The overall objective is to investigate total lightning characteristics of extreme weather events over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) LIS (Lightning Image Sensor) and OTD (Optical Transient Detector) satellite observations. A large LIS (10+ years) and OTD (5 years) data base is available to study the instantaneous total or cloud-to-ground (CG) plus intracloud (IC) lightning characteristics of extreme weather events. More specifically, the LIS and OTD data are combined with National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) observations to examine the total and CG lightning flash rate and density, the IC:CG ratio, and positive CG percentage. These instantaneous lightning characteristics can be used for basic science studies to better understand the physical and dynamical linkages between lightning and precipitation and their environmental controls. They can also provide a first-look of extreme weather events leading up to future satellite observations (e.g., NOAA GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper [GLM]) for use in climate studies and the short-term prediction and warning process. Extreme weather events are defined by the NOAA Storm Data reports of tornadoes, large hail (at least 0.75 inch) and strong straight-line winds (at least 50 kts). Over CONUS, there are over 70,000 severe storm reports in the TRMM spatial domain (< 35 N) from 1998-2007 and over 100,000 storm reports in the OTD spatial domain (5/1995-4/2000). Temporal co-location is on the order of 1% (i.e., 1000 s of coincident overpasses), providing a statistically significant sample of instantaneous total lightning properties. This instantaneous behavior of lightning in extreme weather is then compared to that of typical thunderstorm events, or randomly sampled LIS/OTD events in which the extreme events have been eliminated from the population. Results describing the instantaneous behavior of total lightning within a large sample of extreme and typical thunderstorms over CONUS will be presented. When possible, coincident VHF lightning observations from the ground-based Northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) are compared to the LIS/OTD optical lightning signatures, providing a validation source for instantaneous space-based optical lightning properties and a means to extend lightning inferences over the life-cycle of extreme weather.

Carey, Lawrence D.↗