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Impact analysis of heating electrification in US buildings with geothermal heat pumps

Few studies have investigated the impacts of large-scale deployment of geothermal heat pumps (GHPs, also called ground source heat pumps) on the electric grid. GHPs utilize the ground as a heat source to warm buildings more efficiently than other space-heating systems. The coupling with the ground offers seasonal thermal storage so that GHPs can also cool buildings in summer more efficiently than other space-cooling systems. This study simulated the performance of GHP systems for various commercial and residential buildings in 15 climate zones in the United States. Combined with the latest End-Use Load Profiles of the US building stock and grid modeling, this study aims to assess the impacts of a national deployment of GHP systems on the US electric grid in terms of energy consumption, emissions, and operational resilience. The preliminary results show that the GHP deployment can save 429 billion kWh of electricity (a 19% reduction from baseline) and reduce carbon emissions by 496 million tons per year (a 31 % reduction from baseline). A geographical view of the results indicates that retrofitting existing HVAC systems with new GHP systems can lead to further reductions in annual electricity consumption and peak electricity demand in the southern regions of the United States than in other parts of the country. On the other hand, GHP retrofits result in higher percentages of site energy savings and carbon emission reduction in the north (cold climates) than in the south (warm climates).

Liu, Xiaobing↗

In Hot Water! The Challenges and Barriers of Decarbonizing Water Heating in Multifamily Buildings: Preprint

Domestic hot water heating is responsible for 32% of the total energy consumption in multifamily buildings and offers a significant decarbonization opportunity. An extensive market assessment was conducted to understand and document key technical and economic barriers to electrification of domestic water heating in multifamily buildings throughout the U.S. Through the program, 77 interviews were conducted to understand key market drivers and technical challenges associated with electrification of water heating systems in both retrofit and new construction scenarios. Interviewees encompassed a wide range of stakeholders in the ecosystem surrounding water heating systems, including suppliers, manufacturers, designers, owners, utilities, and developers. This paper documents key interview takeaways, including an extensive list of market barriers, technical challenges, and sought-after technology attributes that can inform pertinent design criteria for electric water heating research, development, and deployment efforts. Among economics and energy efficiency features, interviewees overwhelmingly alluded to space constraints, cold air exhaust, and lack of clear guidance regarding distributed versus centralized design selections as key challenges associated with mass adoption of electric water heating. Owners and developers seek systems with minimal footprint, which maximize rentable space and profits. Moreover, distributed heat pump solutions should balance ducting costs that mitigate cold exhaust entrainment into conditioned zones. Lastly, the market needs clear guidance regarding the selection of distributed versus central electric hot water systems.

challenges of water heating electrification↗

Valuing Residential Energy Efficiency: Analysis for a Prototypical Southeastern Utility [Slides]

The increasing amount of variable renewable energy resources and shifts towards more end-use and vehicle electrification suggests profound changes to power system planning and operation. Specifically, renewable energy is expected to shift net peak demand from late afternoon to early evening and end-use electrification may significantly increase winter peak demand. Residential energy efficiency is likely to align well with these shifts as it tends to produce savings in the early evening (e.g., from lighting measures) and coincident with heating loads (e.g., from envelope and space conditioning measures). Despite the opportunity to decrease system costs and emissions, residential energy efficiency is often limited by static valuation methods and its economic potential is considerably less than its technical potential. Using hourly residential energy efficiency characterizations, utility program cost data, and a capacity expansion model, we estimate the benefits of residential energy efficiency for a prototypical, summer-peaking utility in the Southeastern region. We first establish the cost-effective residential energy efficiency portfolio through “competition” with supply-side resources in a forward-looking capacity expansion model. Importantly, we then evaluate several scenarios intended to drive an increasing amount of cost-effective residential energy efficiency through measure cost reductions, increased customer adoption, policy goals (e.g., carbon price), and delivery of an integrated package of measures. The results quantify total system cost and emissions reductions, fossil-fuel plant retirements, and peak demand reductions. Results suggest the design and prioritization of policies and programs to access the untapped amount of cost-effective residential energy efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Active and passive cooling approaches for a Southern California residential community

This study assesses cooling strategies in a low-income community in Southern California that lacks air conditioning and struggles with heat and air pollution. We used an urban building energy model and an electric distribution system model to evaluate active and passive cooling measures. The most effective space cooling measures were high-performance air-source heat pumps, cool coatings, window films, and harnessing the space cooling effect from heat pump water heaters. The results show that combining heat pump water heaters with window films and cool coatings reduces heat index hazard hours within buildings by 95 % to 99 % but increases total energy costs (equipment costs plus changes in utility bills) by 20 % to 60 % where the higher end includes building electrical upgrades. These measures also led to increased space heater use during colder months to avoid overcooling. Replacing conventional heaters with air source heat pumps eliminated unsafe indoor temperatures and reduced total energy use, but increased cost by 125 % to 150 %. In total, using heat pumps for space and water heating could reduce primary energy use by up to 57 %. The higher cost of active and passive cooling measures can be mitigated by existing and emerging incentive programs, especially those that support heat pumps. Electric distribution upgrades to support community electrification are estimated to increase utility costs by $\$$25 to $\$$40 per ratepayer per year. The results underscore the potential and challenges of adapting building infrastructure in communities at risk from climate and environmental stressors.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Challenges and Opportunities for Basic Efficiency Measures in Low-Income Homes: A Southeast Alaska Case Study

Juneau, Alaska is the state's capital city and has a renewable energy goal to reach 80% renewable energy for the space heating and transportation sectors by 2045. In practical terms, this indicates a need to electrify both sectors, to take advantage of the inexpensive hydropower available from the local electric utility, Alaska Energy Light & Power. In an effort to complement and enable electrification, researchers examined the feasibility to deploy storm windows via a case study of installing storm windows in two local low-income homes. Newer models of storm windows provide an extra layer of insulation over existing windows, while preserving operability and views. They can also improve comfort and reduce noise. Researchers worked with the regional housing authority and a local builder to install the storm windows and replace inoperable windows in the two houses in 2021, in addition to conducting pre- and post-installation air leakage tests, energy monitoring, and occupant interviews. The team encountered several challenges, including a lack of egress windows, energy data from a wide variety of heating systems, extremely leaky homes, and installation issues such as windows that were not square. These results point to several barriers to widespread deployment of storm windows in the area, but also open the door to opportunities to design deployment programs that improve safety as well as efficiency.

cold climate↗

Numerical Investigation of High Delta T Sensible Storage Integrated CO2 Heat Pump: Preprint

To assist building heating electrification, this paper numerically investigates a load flexible heat pump system for commercial buildings. The system consists of a CO2 vapor compression cycle, a sensible thermal storage tank, and an air handling unit. The thermal storage medium is inexpensive, non-toxic and stable anti-freeze solution (30% potassium acetate). The air handing unit has an indoor coil and a ventilation coil. The system can be used to manage building electric load. During peak hours, the heat pump is off and the hot solution water is discharged from the tank to heat up the indoor air and ventilation air. During the hour of charge, the heat pump delivers hot solution water to the tank and to the air. The tank can also stand by while the heat pump provides space heating directly. We selected a medium sized office building located in Minnesota as the representative building and used EnergyPlus to obtain its 24 hour load data. We designed three storage tank volumes assuming 50 degrees C, 65 degrees C and 80 degrees C tank temperatures to independently provide the building load for 4 hours in the morning. The higher the tank temperature, the smaller the required volume, and thus higher energy density. The effective energy density is 78 with an 80 degrees C tank, and 40 kWhth/m3 with 50 degrees C. We simulated the tank integrated heat pump performance subjected to the 24-hour building load profile and ambient data. The baseline is the same system without storage tank. There was a trade-off between the storage energy density and the charging COP. The charge hour COP was 2.77 to charge the tank to 80 degrees C, and 3.01 to 50 degrees C. The proposed system could shift building load from the peak hours (8:00 - 12:00) to off-business hour (23:00 - 7:00+1). It eliminated 100% compressor electricity use during the peak hours, and avoided a peak electric power of 34 kW. The 65 degrees C tank saved 9.5 kWhe (4%) considering all day operation, which was the best balance between energy density and the system operation efficiency among the three options.

CO2 heat pump↗

Design Considerations for Phase Change Material-Incorporated Heat Exchangers in Water Heating

In recent years, the buildings sector has seen major pushes towards decarbonization through innovations that promote deep electrification. 20% of an average household's energy use comes from water heating, and in the US, over half of all households still use gas water heaters. Of those that use electricity for water heating, the majority use resistive elements rather than heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), the latter of which use 60-70% less energy than the former. However, HPWHs tend to have larger dimensions, preventing current 50-80-gallon tanks on the market from fitting into smaller utility closets sized for 30-40 gallons, such as those found in manufactured housing. Additionally, these smaller HPWHs tend to underperform relative to their larger counterparts. One solution that addresses both space and performance concerns is thermal energy storage, and in particular, phase change materials (PCMs). This study outlines the design process used to produce novel PCM heat exchangers for use in small-volume HPWH tanks, including the identification of design constraints and performance targets relevant to real-world applications. To ensure optimal PCM utilization and tank storage capacity, this works seeks to co-maximize surface area and PCM volume; therefore, this research targets triply periodic minimal surface (TPMS) lattices, which boast enhanced heat transfer capabilities compared to traditional heat exchanger geometries. Starting with a suite of TPMS lattices, we demonstrate a systematic approach for narrowing down feasible designs that comply with identified constraints while meeting PCM performance objectives. Our current results indicate that tuning lattice properties can effectively produce geometries that provide enough energy storage to achieve a 50-gallon capacity out of a 40-gallon HPWH, even when placing the PCM heat exchanger inside the tank. Additionally, we demonstrate successful fabrication of lattices with these tuned properties.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Multifunctional Heat Pump with Energy Storage Capability

Replacing gas furnaces with heat pumps on a large scale can pose challenges to the electrical grid. It will significantly increase the demand, strain the electrical grid, especially during peak usage times. To ensure that heat pumps contribute to reducing emissions, it's essential to increase the share of renewable energy in the grid. However, the supply of renewable energy is unstable. Large scale of electrification must address the concern of grid resilience to meet necessary heating/cooling demands and shift peak electric load. All these require future heat pumps having energy storage capability. These systems can store excess energy during low-demand periods and release it during high-demand periods, reducing stress on the grid. This paper will introduce an innovative configuration, control, and laboratory investigations of a multifunctional packaged heat pump. In addition to the original indoor and outdoor air coils, the heat pump has a parallel hydronic loop with a brazed plate heat exchanger (BHP). The hydronic loop circulates hot/chilled water to store heating/cooling energy in phase change material (PCM). It is capable of space cooling, space heating, cooling energy storage/defrosting, water heating/heating energy storage with outdoor air source or indoor air source, and cooling/heating energy free discharge. The laboratory studies and breadboard unit are presented. Additionally, building energy simulation demonstrates utility cost reduction potential via charging PCM panels/ceilings during off-peak hours and releasing the energy during peak hours to mitigate the peak power consumption.

Shen, Bo↗

Alaska's First Thermalize Campaign: An Effort to Reduce Fuel Reliance in Juneau, AK

In 2018, the Bureau and City of Juneau set the goal of reaching 80% renewable energy in the sectors of transportation and space heating by 2045. This effort will minimize their reliance on fossil fuels, reduce their carbon footprint and increase their resilience in the event of a natural disaster as fuel oil reaches Juneau by boat and such shipments may be disrupted in a disaster. The community's resilience in the face of a disaster and lower carbon footprint goes hand-in-hand with public safety and health. The Cold Climate Housing and Research Center (CCHRC) partnered with several local and statewide groups, including Alaska Heat Smart and Information Insights, Inc, to lead Alaska's first thermalize campaign. Thermalize Juneau 2021 is an energy campaign working to lower the cost of heating homes in Juneau through beneficial electrification and increased energy efficiency. The goal of the campaign was to offer homeowners a streamlined and more affordable way to install heat pumps and energy efficiency improvements into their homes. Converting household heating from fuel to electricity also helps improve indoor and outdoor air quality and reduces maintenance requirements. The campaign had over 160 participants. As of Fall 2021, it is in its final stages of heat pump installations and energy efficiency improvements. In addition to tracking the energy savings and carbon reduction attributed to the campaign, the social equity was an important aspect. Thermalize Juneau attempted to include all the demographics present in Juneau in the campaign. The presentation will cover the goals and implementation of the campaign, current data on how it is improving community and household resilience, lessons learned, and next steps.

clean energy↗

Potential State Regulatory Pathways to Facilitate Low-Carbon Fuels

States and the federal government are increasingly engaged in the challenges around decarbonizing the electric grid. In particular, regulators, consumers, stakeholders, and utilities recognize the need to carefully consider the role natural gas will play in a decarbonized future. A variety of technology and policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with natural gas use are available, including energy efficiency programs, demand reduction tools, strategic electrification, and strategies to reduce emissions from natural gas production, transportation, and consumption. Low-carbon fuels – mainly renewable natural gas (RNG) and clean hydrogen – are being considered an important component of decarbonization goals. RNG and hydrogen may be able to meaningfully reduce emissions from processes independent of geologic natural gas, displacing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Although RNG and hydrogen are not cost-competitive today with geologic natural gas and are smaller in scale and potential than other decarbonization options, they can be explored as potential critical tools to decarbonize sectors that are difficult to electrify or shift off of natural gas entirely, such as air travel, industrial processes, maritime transport, long-distance trucking, space heating on cold days, and railroads (Nadel, 2022). The role of this report is to provide informational context for state utility regulators to understand the impacts of and challenges associated with broader integration of low-carbon fuels, followed by examples of state regulatory actions taken to date to facilitate the development of low-carbon fuels. Setting clear guidance to calculate the environmental benefits of low-carbon fuels and continuing federal and state investments in research and development to reduce costs relative to fossil fuels will be important steps to take to signal the desire to grow the market for these fuels. State public utility commissions may play a key role in setting regulatory frameworks for low-carbon fuels and ensuring that ratepayer funds, if utilized, are done so to further the public interest. This report is intended to summarize decisions that states have made to date on low-carbon fuels. In the spirit of understanding the current market and sharing information, this report provides success stories, and lessons learned across states as regulators implement varying strategies to achieve decarbonization objectives while maintaining their focus on affordability, safety, and reliability of the energy system. The report begins with an introduction of the role of natural gas in the U.S. economy (Section I) and background information on natural gas use, decarbonization, and low-carbon fuels (Section II). Next, the report describes the current market by discussing the scale of current production, emissions intensity, resource potential, and costs of low-carbon fuels compared to geologic natural gas (Section III). Following these sections, the report describes four strategies states have employed to facilitate low-carbon fuels: opening exploratory dockets, approving voluntary tariffs for customers, approving interconnection tariffs for producers, and considering portfolio-wide procurement targets (Section IV). This section lists states that have taken actions in each category, citing utility filings, commission decisions, stakeholder comments, and other relevant sources. Finally, the report concludes with suggested questions regulators may wish to consider regarding low-carbon fuels, in the interest of preparing to make decisions in the future (Section V). These questions include: Are there existing regulatory or technical barriers to voluntary purchases of low-carbon fuels? Can customers work with utilities to procure low-carbon fuels; are producers able to interconnect projects without significant barriers to entry? Should the infrastructure and/or commodity costs of low-carbon fuels be socialized among all ratepayers, or borne solely by the large commercial and industrial (C&I) customers currently driving the market? Should regulated natural gas and/or electric utilities own and operate low-carbon fuel production? How should regulators consider the unique decarbonization potential of low-carbon fuels, particularly for hard-to-abate sectors, in decision-making? Is additional direction or clarity from state policymakers needed? What no-regrets approaches can help facilitate both near-term RNG development and long-term development of hydrogen and other zero-carbon fuels? We collectively wish to express our gratitude to the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, for supporting this report and other technical assistance resources for state regulators on natural gas topics. State regulators operate under a variety of policy environments, and states have vastly different types of energy resources, infrastructure, and customers. While there is no optimal regulatory, policy, or technological solution that will be successful in every state, state regulators can benefit by exchanging lessons learned with their peers across the country. We look forward to continued engagement with our fellow commissioners, commission staff, NARUC, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other stakeholders to develop sound regulation in the public interest.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Optimizing Hydronic Heating for Comfort and Performance in Multifamily Housing

Inefficient control settings in multifamily boilers often lead to substantial energy and cost penalties. To address this, a Fault Detection and Diagnostic (FDD) tool was developed to automate data analysis and identify operational faults such as suboptimal outdoor temperature sensor placement, misconfigured outdoor air reset (OAR) curves, excess boiler cycling, and domestic hot water (DHW) setpoint errors. By comparing pre- and post-implementation periods and applying engineering models, the tool quantifies energy savings and reduces manual analysis time by over 90%. Testing on over 100 monitored sites and a targeted subset of 12 buildings showed an average 11% energy savings from remote optimization; further validation across 19 OAR curve changes confirmed the tool’s accuracy, predicting actual savings within ±5% for most cases. Simple payback can be under three years for many multifamily buildings, though rising hardware, labor, and fuel costs create uncertainties, and decarbonization goals increasingly shift focus to electrification. The FDD tool remains invaluable for optimizing existing boilers, enhancing future electrification measures, and adapting to new technologies by refining building load estimates. In doing so, it supports both near-term efficiency and long-term transitions to low-carbon alternatives, ensuring buildings achieve substantial cost and energy benefits throughout their system lifecycles.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Reducing the cost of home energy upgrades in the US: An industry survey

Decarbonizing the US residential building stock requires a substantial acceleration in home energy upgrades. Numerous barriers exist to accelerating adoption of efficient and electric building technologies, but foremost among these is high upfront costs. This study uses an industry survey delivered to a sample of home energy professionals to examine promising cost reduction strategies across a range of project types, including HVAC, water heating, and envelope/insulation projects. The survey included quantitative and qualitative questions to collect evidence on the estimated cost reduction potential of these strategies and their likelihood of use in the construction industry. The 167 survey respondents included contractors, energy consultants, architects, manufacturers, and others with experience in delivering energy upgrades in single-family and multifamily buildings in the US. Results show that significant cost reductions are achievable by minimizing additional infrastructure costs (such as replacing electric panels), streamlining project planning/management, and deploying innovations that simplify installation. We find that for a typical deep retrofit project, including heat pumps for space and water heating in addition to envelope upgrades, the strategies could result in a total installed cost reduction of nearly 50%, dramatically improving the customer economics of such a project. This research makes a novel contribution to the literature on strategies to reduce the costs of residential retrofits. We discuss how our study's insights on the highest-value cost reduction strategies for home energy upgrades can further accelerate their uptake in the US housing stock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Boiler Replacement with Air-Source Heat Pump Boiler and Electric Boiler Backup

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock TM and ComStock TM models over the past three years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each timestep. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure—boiler replacement by air-source heat pump boiler. This measure replaces space heating natural gas boilers by air-source heat pump boilers when applicable and helps quantify the decarbonization as well as the energy savings potential from the replacement. The measure resulted higher savings in natural gas consumption compared to the increase in electricity consumption, with a ratio of 2.9. The total natural gas energy consumption was reduced by 20%, whereas the total electricity consumption was increased by 2.5%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

Aerosols are a critical.factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major agent for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosols have a major impact on the dynamics, microphysics, and electrification properties of continental mixed-phase convective clouds. In addition, high aerosol concentrations in urban environments could affect precipitation variability by providing a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Such pollution . effects on precipitation potentially have enormous climatic consequences both in terms of feedbacks involving the land surface via rainfall as well as the surface energy budget and changes in latent heat input to the atmosphere. Basically, aerosol concentrations can influence cloud droplet size distributions, the warm-rain process, the cold-rain process, cloud-top heights, the depth of the mixed-phase region, and the occurrence of lightning. Recently, many cloud resolution models (CRMs) have been used to examine the role of aerosols on mixed-phase convective clouds. These modeling studies have many differences in terms of model configuration (two- or three-dimensional), domain size, grid spacing (150-3000 m), microphysics (two-moment bulk, simple or sophisticated spectral-bin), turbulence (1st or 1.5 order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)), radiation, lateral boundary conditions (i.e., closed, radiative open or cyclic), cases (isolated convection, tropical or midlatitude squall lines) and model integration time (e.g., 2.5 to 48 hours). Among these modeling studies, the most striking difference is that cumulative precipitation can either increase or decrease in response to higher concentrations of CCN. In this presentation, we review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on convective precipitation processes. Specifically, this paper addresses the following topics: observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, and results from (CRM) simulations. Note that this presentation is mainly based on a recent paper published in Geophy. Rev. (Tao et al. 2012).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act on Consumer Energy Expenditures

The Inflation Reduction Act introduced or expanded a suite of federal tax credits for clean electricity generation and customer adoption of electric (and other highly efficient) end-use equipment. These incentives are expected to drive changes in both the electricity generation mix and demand for electricity (especially for space heating and light-duty vehicles), which are highly interconnected. In this session, Caitlin Murphy, Group Manager and Senior Analyst in NREL's Strategic Energy Analysis Center, will present findings from her team's recent state-level analysis on the combined effects of various IRA incentives on customer expenditures for electricity, natural gas, and gasoline. She will present and explain the regional variations observed in their analysis, based on interactions between end-use equipment cost and performance and projections for future energy prices.

air source heat pump↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Variable Refrigerant Flow with Heat Recovery and Dedicated Outdoor Air System

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) end-use savings shape measure - a variable refrigerant flow with heat recovery (VRF HR) heating and cooling system coupled with a dedicated outdoor air system (DOAS) for ventilation. This measure replaces existing multi-zone variable air volume (VAV) systems or single-zone rooftop units (RTU) with a VRF HR system coupled with a DOAS that includes an energy/heat recovery ventilator (E/HRV). The measure covers 53% of exisiting building stock's floor area and is not applicable to HVAC system types using district heating or cooling or buildings/spaces that include high-ventilation spaces such as kitchens where the amount of exhaust air is large. A DOAS with E/HRV is used to provide required outdoor ventilation air to spaces since ventilation air is generally not supplied by a VRF HR system. An exhaust air energy recovery ventilator (ERV ) with sensible and latent heat exchange is added to humid climate zones while a heat recovery ventilator (HRV ) with sensible only exchange is added to drier climate zones. The ERV is modeled as a fixed membrane plate counterflow heat exchanger, while the HRV is modeled as a sensible-only fixed aluminum plate counterflow heat exchanger. Both systems include a bypass (for temperature control and economizer lockout) and minimum exhaust temperature control for frost prevention.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Unlocking the Path to Decarbonized Building Thermal Systems: Strategies for Designers and Contractors: Preprint

The design and construction community plays a pivotal role in facilitating the transition to decarbonized thermal systems that maintain human comfort while reducing building emissions. Through the U.S. Department of Energy Better Buildings initiative's Design and Construction Allies, a cohort of leading architecture, engineering, and construction firms have identified top ranked barriers that designers and contractors face when implementing solutions for building owners. These barriers to decarbonizing thermal - especially heating - systems include equipment availability; electrical capacity constraints; space allocations; complex system configurations; and lack of experience in designing, installing, and maintaining heat pumps. These impediments significantly amplify the risk and financial burden associated with the adoption of decarbonized solutions. The barriers also decrease the likelihood that designers, contractors, and owners will adopt decarbonization strategies without clear plans and guidance on how to implement these solutions, mitigate risk, and overcome the identified barriers. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the Design and Construction Allies, and the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers have developed "how to" thermal decarbonization guidance based on best practices. The subjects covered range from the role of energy efficiency in facilitating decarbonized heating solutions to strategies for decarbonizing new and existing heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning systems. The focus is on overcoming barriers so that energy-efficient, electrified buildings - both new and retrofit - become the industry standard. This paper outlines 1) the method used to collect and organize this guidance, 2) industry barriers to decarbonization, and 3) decarbonization techniques that have broad market applicability.

building heating↗