Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “space weather”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

Kronecker-structured covariance models for multiway data

Many applications produce multiway data of exceedingly high dimension. Modeling such multi-way data is important in multichannel signal and video processing where sensors produce multi-indexed data, e.g. over spatial, frequency, and temporal dimensions. We will address the challenges of covariance representation of multiway data and review some of the progress in statistical modeling of multiway covariance over the past two decades, focusing on tensor-valued covariance models and their inference. We will illustrate through a space weather application: predicting the evolution of solar active regions over time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Solitary Magnetic Structures Developed From Gyro-Resonance With Solar Wind Ions at Mars and Earth

We investigate solitary magnetic structures in the foreshock of Mars and Earth. The structures exhibit pulse-like magnetic field and density enhancements along with plasma heating and local solar wind (SW) ion reflection. The structures at Mars resemble the foreshock structures developed from ultra-low-frequency electromagnetic waves gyro-resonant with SW ions at Earth, and propagate toward the magnetosphere. We perform fully kinetic simulations to reproduce the solitary structures and the nonlinear evolution of ion distribution functions, illustrating their resonance with SW ions. The structures present self-induced foreshock turbulence that can have space weather effects. Our results advance the fundamental understanding of how SW interacts with planetary magnetospheres, and have potential impact on the current picture of planet-origin ion escape.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Calibration and Initial Results of Space Radiation Dosimetry Using the iMESA-R

The integrated Miniaturized Electrostatic Analyzer-Reflight (iMESA-R) is a space weather instrument designed to measure plasma density, temperature, and spacecraft charging, along with total ionizing dose and dose rate. A constellation consisting of five nearly identical instruments has been designed and developed to act as science payloads hosted on-board Department of Defense satellites operating in low-Earth orbit. To validate the dosimetry component of the iMESA-R, a radiation test study was performed to calibrate the dosimeter and ascertain the attenuation due to the instrument aluminum housing. An 80 curie Cobalt-60 radioisotope source emitting beta, X-ray, and gamma ray radiation decay products was used to calibrate the dosimeter response as a function of distance and instrument shielding. We present results of the calibration study along with initial on-orbit data presented from the first operational iMESA-R hosted on-board Space Test Program Satellite 5 in a polar Earth orbit. The initial on-orbit data demonstrate the ability to map the radiation environment, particularly the South Atlantic Anomaly and the auroral regions using total ionizing dose rate due to electrons of E > 1.5 MeV and protons of E > 25 MeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document For PreMevE 2.0 Model

Man-made satellites operating in medium- and high-altitude Earth orbits are continuously exposed to hazardous space radiation originated from different sources. Among them, one major contributor is the relativistic electron population—with kinetic energies comparable to or larger than their rest energy of 0.511 Megaelectron-volt (MeV)—trapped inside Earth’s outer Van Allen belt. Owing to their high penetration capability, these MeV electrons are difficult to be fully stopped by normal shielding. Particularly, during MeV electron events when electron intensities across the outer belt are greatly elevated to sustaining high levels—up to 10 3 - 10 4 times as observed in the geosynchronous (GEO) orbit and low-Earth-orbits (LEOs), space-borne electronic systems with inadequate hardening are susceptible to deep-dielectric charging and discharging phenomenon caused by those electrons, and thus may suffer severe damages or even stop functioning. Therefore, protecting critical space infrastructures from harsh space weather conditions– including MeV electron events – has high priority for many space sectors, such as the aerospace industry, service providers and government agencies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Pro‐ L * ‐ A Probabilistic L * Mapping Tool for Ground Observations

Abstract Both ground and space observations are used extensively in the modeling of space weather processes within the Earth’s magnetosphere. In radiation belt physics modeling, one of the key phase‐space coordinates is L *, which indicates the location of the drift paths of energetic electrons. Global magnetic field models allow a subset of locations on the ground (mainly subauroral) to be mapped along field lines to a location in space and transformed into L *, provided that the initial ground location maps to a closed drift path. This allows observations from ground, or low‐altitude space‐based platforms to be mapped into space in order to inform radiation belt modeling. Many data‐based magnetic field models exist; however, these models can significantly disagree on mapped L * values for a single point on the ground, during both quiet times and storms. We present a state of the art probabilistic L * mapping tool, Pro‐ L *, which produces probability distributions for L * corresponding to a given ground location. Pro‐ L * has been calculated for a high resolution magnetic latitude by magnetic local time grid in the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere. We have developed the probabilistic model using 11 years of L * calculations for seven widely used magnetic field models. Usage of the tool is highlighted for both event studies and statistical models, and we demonstrate a number of potential applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Lunar soil record of atmosphere loss over eons

The Moon has a tenuous atmosphere produced by space weathering. The short-lived nature of the atoms surrounding the Moon necessitates continuous replenishment from lunar regolith through mechanisms such as micrometeorite impacts, ion sputtering, and photon-stimulated desorption. Despite advances, previous remote sensing and space mission data have not conclusively disentangled the contributions of these processes. Using high-precision potassium (K) and rubidium (Rb) isotopic analyses of lunar soils from the Apollo missions, our study sheds light on the lunar surface-atmosphere evolution over billions of years. The observed correlation between K and Rb isotopic ratios (δ 87 Rb = 0.17 δ 41 K) indicates that, over long timescales, micrometeorite impact vaporization is the primary source of atoms in the lunar atmosphere.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Ohm’s Law, the Reconnection Rate, and Energy Conversion in Collisionless Magnetic Reconnection

Magnetic reconnection is a ubiquitous plasma process that transforms magnetic energy into particle energy during eruptive events throughout the universe. Reconnection not only converts energy during solar flares and geomagnetic substorms that drive space weather near Earth, but it may also play critical roles in the high energy emissions from the magnetospheres of neutron stars and black holes. In this review article, we focus on collisionless plasmas that are most relevant to reconnection in many space and astrophysical plasmas. Guided by first-principles kinetic simulations and spaceborne in-situ observations, we highlight the most recent progress in understanding this fundamental plasma process. We start by discussing the non-ideal electric field in the generalized Ohm’s law that breaks the frozen-in flux condition in ideal magnetohydrodynamics and allows magnetic reconnection to occur. We point out that this same reconnection electric field also plays an important role in sustaining the current and pressure in the current sheet and then discuss the determination of its magnitude (i.e., the reconnection rate), based on force balance and energy conservation. This approach to determining the reconnection rate is applied to kinetic current sheets with a wide variety of magnetic geometries, parameters, and background conditions. We also briefly review the key diagnostics and modeling of energy conversion around the reconnection diffusion region, seeking insights from recently developed theories. Finally, future prospects and open questions are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Magnetic Reconnection

Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental plasma physics process ubiquitous in astrophysics, and important in both magnetic confinement fusion and space weather. The MARZ fundamental science program was recently established on Z to enable the first laboratory astrophysics platform able to access and study the strongly radiatively cooled magnetic reconnection regime. Simulations of this system have successfully used a resistive-MHD approach, but in some regions of parameter space Hall physics has the potential to be important. We describe implementation of a Hall method on a staggered grid resistive-MHD method (compatible with the approach used to model MARZ experiments. We then present a different Hall method based on cell-centered field quantities. Both approaches have been implemented in the Sandia KRAKEN code, to enable us to contrast different numerical Hall-MHD methods within the same HED code.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Revealing the Moon's Taurus‐Littrow Landslide via Integrated Analysis of Pristine Apollo 17 Soil Core 73001/2

The “light mantle” deposit at the base of South Massif in the Moon's Taurus‐Littrow Valley was a primary science target for the Apollo 17 exploration. The possibility that it was a landslide triggered by ejecta from Tycho Crater is critical for establishing the age of Tycho and constraining recent lunar impact chronology; however, the mechanism of emplacement of the deposit has recently been questioned. The newly opened 73001/73002 double drive tube from Station 3 sampled 70.6 cm deep into the regolith and represents the first stratigraphic section of an extraterrestrial landslide deposit returned to Earth. Here we provide an overview of the stratigraphy of the 73001/73002 core based on top to bottom variations revealed by coordinated laboratory analyses and explore constraints on the emplacement of the light mantle deposit. Briefly, the upper ∼10 cm of 73002 contains a disturbed zone from space weathering and emplacement of ejecta from a nearby crater that excavated and ejected basaltic material. Below 10 cm is a nearly uniform unit of immature regolith. These data support a single event for the emplacement of the deposit at this location, followed by weathering and mixing of materials from nearby crater ejecta in the upper 10 cm. Slight variations in chemistry and clast components may reflect the relative stratigraphy of the South Massif slope, with material toward the bottom of 73001 originating from lower slopes and material from higher up in the core representing regolith from higher up the South Massif slopes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Pluto's Ultraviolet Spectrum, Surface Reflectance, and Airglow Emissions

During the New Horizons spacecraft’s encounter with Pluto, the Alice ultraviolet spectrograph conducted a series of observations that detected emissions from both the interplanetary medium (IPM) and Pluto. In the direction of Pluto, the IPM was found to be 133.4 ± 0.6 R at Lyα, 0.24 ± 0.02 R at Lyβ, and <0.10 R at He i 584 Å. We analyzed 3900 s of data obtained shortly before closest approach to Pluto and detect airglow emissions from H i, N i, N ii, N{sub 2}, and CO above the disk of Pluto. We find Pluto’s brightness at Lyα to be 29.3 ± 1.9 R, in good agreement with preencounter estimates. The detection of the N ii multiplet at 1085 Å marks the first direct detection of ions in Pluto’s atmosphere. We do not detect any emissions from noble gases and place a 3σ upper limit of 0.14 R on the brightness of the Ar i 1048 Å line. We compare preencounter model predictions and predictions from our own airglow model, based on atmospheric profiles derived from the solar occultation observed by New Horizons, to the observed brightness of Pluto’s airglow. Although completely opaque at Lyα, Pluto’s atmosphere is optically thin at wavelengths longer than 1425 Å. Consequently, a significant amount of solar far-UV light reaches the surface, where it can participate in space weathering processes. From the brightness of sunlight reflected from Pluto, we find the surface has a reflectance factor (I/F) of 17% between 1400 and 1850 Å. We also report the first detection of a C{sub 3} hydrocarbon molecule, methylacetylene, in absorption, at a column density of ∼5 × 10{sup 15} cm{sup −2}, corresponding to a column-integrated mixing ratio of 1.6 × 10{sup −6}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Astraea: Predicting Long Rotation Periods with 27 Day Light Curves

The rotation periods of planet-hosting stars can be used for modeling and mitigating the impact of magnetic activity in radial velocity measurements and can help constrain the high-energy flux environment and space weather of planetary systems. Millions of stars and thousands of planet hosts are observed with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). However, most will only be observed for 27 contiguous days in a year, making it difficult to measure rotation periods with traditional methods. This is especially problematic for field M dwarfs, which are ideal candidates for exoplanet searches, but which tend to have periods in excess of the 27 day observing baseline. We present a new tool, Astraea, for predicting long rotation periods from short-duration light curves combined with stellar parameters from Gaia DR2. Using Astraea, we can predict the rotation periods from Kepler 4 yr light curves with 13% uncertainty overall (and a 9% uncertainty for periods >30 days). By training on 27 day Kepler light-curve segments, Astraea can predict rotation periods up to 150 days with 9% uncertainty (5% for periods >30 days). After training this tool on these 27 day Kepler light-curve segments, we applied Astraea to real TESS data. For the 195 stars that were observed by both Kepler and TESS, we were able to predict the rotation periods with 55% uncertainty despite the wild differences in systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Meso-Scale Electrodynamic Coupling of the Earth Magnetosphere-Ionosphere System

Within the fully integrated magnetosphere-ionosphere system, many electrodynamic processes interact with each other. We review recent advances in understanding three major meso-scale coupling processes within the system: the transient field-aligned currents (FACs), mid-latitude plasma convection, and auroral particle precipitation. (1) Transient FACs arise due to disturbances from either dayside or nightside magnetosphere. As the interplanetary shocks suddenly compress the dayside magnetosphere, short-lived FACs are induced at high latitudes with their polarity successively changing. Magnetotail dynamics, such as substorm injections, can also disturb the current structures, leading to the formation of substorm current wedges and ring current disruption. (2) The mid-latitude plasma convection is closely associated with electric fields in the system. Recent studies have unraveled some important features and mechanisms of subauroral fast flows. (3) Charged particles, while drifting around the Earth, often experience precipitating loss down to the upper atmosphere, enhancing the auroral conductivity. Recent studies have been devoted to developing more self-consistent geospace circulation models by including a better representation of the auroral conductance. It is expected that including these new advances in geospace circulation models could promisingly strengthen their forecasting capability in space weather applications. The remaining challenges especially in the global modeling of the circulation system are also discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Hypervelocity impact flash expansion geometry under various spacecraft surface electrical conditions

A more congested space environment due to increasing space activities introduces new threats to spacecraft operators. Among these threats include hypervelocity impacts from microparticles (< 1 µg) in the form of meteoroids and space debris. These microparticles travel at speeds between 11.2 and 72.8 km/s with respect to the Earth and can impact spacecraft forming a small (~1 µm) and dense (~ 10 26 m -3 ) plasma. This plasma can generate a strong optical emission (impact flash) and a radio frequency (RF) emission. These emissions can lead to spacecraft electrical anomalies when the impacted spacecraft surface (target) carries high electrical potential due to various space weather effects. To understand the microparticle hypervelocity impact plasma and its associated threat to spacecraft electronics, we studied the hypervelocity impact flash expansion geometry under various spacecraft surface electrical conditions. Three high-speed broadband photomultiplier tubes (PMT) are used to capture the temporal evolution of the impact flash and the temporal evolution of the angular distribution of the impact flash expansion geometry in a 3 MV electrostatic dust accelerator during a ground-based experiment. Overall, results indicate that the impact surface electrical condition has a statistically significant influence on the impact flash geometry, and a strong similarity between the impact plasma and flash expansion geometry. Thus, this paper provides new experimental support for the impact flash origin from and connection with the impact plasma, and serves as the first impact flash expansion geometry characterization under various impact surface electrical conditions in a collisionless environment (< 10 -5 Torr).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Forecasting Megaelectron-Volt Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt: PreMevE 2.0 Based on Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms

We present the recent progress in upgrading a predictive model for megaelectron-volt (MeV) electrons inside the Earth's outer Van Allen belt. This updated model, called PreMevE 2.0, provides improved forecasts, particularly at outer L-shells, by adding upstream solar wind speeds to the model's input parameter list that originally includes precipitating electrons observed at low Earth orbits and MeV electron fluxes in situ measured by a geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, based on several kinds of linear and artificial neural networks algorithms, a list of models was constructed, trained, validated, and tested with 42-month MeV electron observations from Van Allen Probes. Out-of-sample test results from these models show that, with optimized model hyperparameters and input parameter combinations, the top performer from each category of models has the similar capability of making reliable 1-day (2-day) forecasts of 1-MeV electron flux distributions with performance efficiency values ~0.87 (~0.82) averaged over the L-shell range of 2.8–6.6, significantly outperforming the previous version of PreMevE particularly at L-shells > ~4.5. Interestingly, the linear regression model is often the most successful when compared to other models, which suggests the relationship between dynamics of trapped 1-MeV electrons and precipitating electrons is dominated by linear components. Results also show that PreMevE 2.0 can reasonably well predict the onsets of MeV electron events in 2-day forecasts. PreMevE 2.0 is designed to be driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure to make high-fidelity forecasts for MeV electrons, thus can be an invaluable space weather forecasting tool for the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A Machine Learning Model

The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120–600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Comparison of Energetic Electron Fluxes Measured by GPS and THEMIS Spacecraft in the Inner Magnetosphere

Key elements of space weather models are energetic electron fluxes in the inner magnetosphere and the outer radiation belt. Flux depletion is driven by various loss processes: scattering into atmosphere, magnetopause shadowing. Flux enhancement is driven by various acceleration processes: local wave-particle interactions, radial transport, plasma sheet injections. Many of these processes operate on ~ hour timescales. Such mesoscale flux variations are not well traced by equatorial spacecraft with much longer orbits. Energetic electron detectors onboard the Global Positioning System (GPS) constellation provide a unique opportunity for probing such ~ hour-scale flux variations. Measurements from up to 23 identically instrumented GPS satellites cover a wide energy and L-shell range with a subhour time resolution. However, their orbits are inclined and thus all measurements at L-shell >4.3 are off-equatorial. Here, in this report, we present a comparison of equatorial THEMIS and nonequatorial GPS measurements of omnidirectional ≤600 keV electron fluxes. Such a comparison allows us to derive coefficients for using off-equatorial GPS fluxes to infer the equatorial values. These coefficients depend on particle energy and L-shell. We demonstrate a new data set derived from GPS measurements and discuss how it can be used to investigate mesoscale dynamics of energetic electron fluxes in the inner magnetosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ionospheric Disturbances in GNSS TEC Data: SpaceX Falcon 9 Deorbit Maneuvers Over CONUS in April–May 2024

Traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) driven by a large number of internal and external sources are detectable with dense networks of ground‐based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers' measurements of total electron content (TEC). We present the newly developed System for Rapid Analysis of Ionospheric Dynamics (S‐RAID), providing data and visual GNSS TEC products of TIDs of periods ~2–120 min and horizontal resolution up to tens of kilometers for years 2017–2024. The S‐RAID data reveal myriad natural and anthropogenic TIDs from meteorology and space weather, and from human spaceflight activities. In this report, we focus on new prominent disturbances found during SpaceX second stage deorbit maneuvers in April–May 2024. Signatures include waves emanating from the Falcon's trajectory above California and depletions following its deorbit and passage over Arizona. These findings suggest further opportunities to detect and quantify small‐scale events in the ionosphere as well as to understand the responses of the atmosphere‐ionosphere system to known inputs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗