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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Ship-based Observations and Climate Model Simulations of Cloud Phase over the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean (SO) clouds exert a significant influence on the Earth’s radiation budget. Here we analyzed ship-based remote sensing observations of SO clouds over a five-month long DOE ARM Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Oceans (MARCUS) field campaign to better understand cloud phase variability. We developed a method to classify eight categories of hydrometeors (ice, liquid, mixed phase, rain, drizzle, snow, aerosols, and clear sky) based on measurements of lidar, radar and radiosondes. Cloud thermodynamic phases (liquid, ice and mixed phase) at coarser scales were further derived to compare with the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) simulation and the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC 2 ) instrument simulator. For a scale-aware comparison with climate model simulations, we found that spatially averaging the raw remote sensing data (e.g., backscatter, reflectivity) results in increased cloud cover and cloud liquid, whereas, directly averaging cloud phase from higher to lower resolution maintains clear air regions and is thus recommended for in-cloud frequency comparisons. For cloud thermodynamic phases in stratiform clouds, the E3SM underestimates cloud ice and overestimates cloud liquid at temperatures between -40 and 0°C. When latitudes increase, both observations and simulations show a transition of dominant phase from liquid to ice for cloud tops as well as for the entire cloud columns, but the model underestimation of ice phase is more severe at higher latitudes. Such model bias is unlikely caused by spatial scale differences or lack of heterogeneity in cloud vertical structure in the simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Testing of a Hybrid Machine Learning‐Physics Global Atmosphere Model

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in capturing synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics, their performance across timescales and under out-of-distribution forcing, such as +3K or +4K uniform-warming forcings, and the sources of biases remain elusive, to establish the model's reliability for Earth science. Here, we design three sets of experiments targeting synoptic-scale phenomena, interannual variability, and out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings. We evaluate the Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM), a hybrid model integrating a dynamical core with ML-based component, against observations and physics-based Earth system models (ESMs). At the synoptic scale, NeuralGCM captures the evolution and propagation of extratropical cyclones with performance comparable to ESMs. At the interannual scale, when forced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, NeuralGCM successfully reproduces associated teleconnection patterns but exhibits deficiencies in capturing nonlinear response. Under out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings, NeuralGCM simulates similar responses in global-average temperature and precipitation and reproduces large-scale tropospheric circulation features similar to those in ESMs. Notable weaknesses include overestimating the tracks and spatial extent of extratropical cyclones, biases in the teleconnected wave train triggered by tropical SST anomalies, and differences in upper-level warming and stratospheric circulation responses to SST warming compared to physics-based ESMs. The causes of these weaknesses were explored. Despite the noted weaknesses, NeuralGCM reproduces responses across experiments reasonably and performs comparably to ESMs. By integrating a dynamical core with ML, NeuralGCM shows potential for developing ML-based ESMs.

global warming↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning and ligand binding predictions: A review of data, methods, and obstacles

We report that computational predictions of ligand binding is a difficult problem, with more accurate methods being extremely computationally expensive. The use of machine learning for drug binding predictions could possibly leverage the use of biomedical big data in exchange for time-intensive simulations. This paper reviews current trends in the use of machine learning for drug binding predictions, data sources to develop machine learning algorithms, and potential problems that may lead to overfitting and ungeneralizable models. A few popular datasets that can be used to develop virtual high-throughput screening models are characterized using spatial statistics to quantify potential biases. We can see from evaluating some common benchmarks that good performance correlates with models with high-predicted bias scores and models with low bias scores do not have much predictive power. A better understanding of the limits of available data sources and how to fix them will lead to more generalizable models that will lead to novel drug discovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Beyond interpolation: Physics-inspired gating transformers for extrapolating irradiation conditions to novel nuclear fuels

The qualification of advanced nuclear fuels relies on irradiation experiments in test reactors that emulate commercial conditions. Designing these tests requires accurate prediction of key irradiation quantities, particularly heat generation rate and burnup, yet obtaining them typically involves computationally expensive multi-step simulation workflows. We propose a physics-inspired gating transformer (PIGT) that integrates an inverse-square, distance-based attenuation into the encoder representation to bias attention toward physically relevant spatial relationships while retaining data-driven flexibility. Using MiniFuel irradiation data from the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, we benchmark against ensemble methods, feedforward and recurrent networks, convolutional models, and standard transformers. While baseline models perform well under interpolation, they exhibit a pronounced generalization gap when evaluated on fuels not included in the training set. The proposed model consistently improves extrapolative accuracy and stability, yielding the strongest performance on unseen fuel configurations. These results indicate that a lightweight physics structure embedded within attention mechanisms can substantially improve robustness, enabling more reliable surrogate predictions to accelerate the design of nuclear fuel irradiation experiments.

Fuel qualification↗
DOE OSTI2020

Unification of nonequilibrium molecular dynamics and the mode-resolved phonon Boltzmann equation for thermal transport simulations

Nano-size confinement induces many intriguing non-Fourier heat conduction phenomena, such as nonlinear temperature gradients, temperature jumps near the contacts, and size-dependent thermal conductivity. Over the past decades, these effects have been studied and interpreted by nonequilibrium molecular dynamics (NEMD) and phonon Boltzmann transport equation (BTE) simulations separately, but no theory that unifies these two methods has ever been established. In this work, we unify these methods using a quantitative mode-level comparison and demonstrate that they are equivalent for various thermostats. We show that different thermostats result in different non-Fourier thermal transport characteristics due to the different mode-level phonon excitations inside the thermostats, which explains the different size-dependent thermal conductivities calculated using different reservoirs, even though they give the same bulk thermal conductivity. Specifically, the Langevin thermostat behaves like a thermalizing boundary in phonon BTE and provides mode-level thermal-equilibrium phonon outlets, while the Nose-Hoover chain thermostat and velocity rescaling method behave like biased reservoirs, which provide a spatially uniform heat generation and mode-level nonequilibrium phonon outlets. These findings explain why different experimental measurement methods can yield different size-dependent thermal conductivity. They also indicate that the thermal conductivity of materials can be tuned for various applications by specifically designing thermostats. Finally, the unification of NEMD and phonon BTE will largely facilitate the study of thermal transport in complex systems in the future by, e.g., replacing computationally unaffordable first-principles NEMD simulations with computationally less expensive spectral BTE simulations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

SCALE 6.2 Lattice Physics Performance Assessment

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relies on the lattice physics analysis capabilities of the SCALE code system to perform confirmatory licensing analyses. Either SCALE lattice physics code—TRITON/NEWT or Polaris—can be used to generate cross section data used by the PARCS nodal core simulator for full-core neutronics calculations. This report presents an assessment of the accuracy of SCALE lattice physics codes for preparation of lattice physics data that are used to support simulator codes such as the NRC’s PARCS, for UO 2 -mixed oxide (MOX)/Zr fueled light water reactor (LWR) analyses. Due to the nature of lattice physics calculations, critical reactor experiment benchmarks cannot be modeled in explicit detail in a lattice physics code. However, this limitation does not mean that these measurement data are not usable for lattice physics studies. Therefore, either geometry approximations or axial buckling must be implemented to determine the critical water height. These modeling limitations have led to development of a three-phase assessment strategy. In the first phase, selected critical experiment benchmarks are modeled using the SCALE 3D continuous-energy (CE) Monte Carlo (MC) code KENO, which is the most rigorous neutron transport method available in SCALE, with no approximations in the spatial, angle, or energy treatments. Biases and statistical uncertainties in quantities of interest such as k eff and pin power distributions are determined by comparing CE KENO results to experimental data. This first phase in the accuracy assessment is to demonstrate and establish the use of CE KENO as a reference solution for the second phase. In the second phase, 14 numerical test suites are used to compare SCALE lattice physics calculations with CE KENO as a reference solution. In the third phase, SCALE lattice physics depletion calculations are performed, and the spent fuel isotopic results are compared with available radiochemical assay measurements. Isotopic measurement comparisons provide quantitative assessment of isotopic density distribution predictions with the depletion models in SCALE lattice physics codes. This report documents results for all test suites. The assessment was performed using standard production techniques unless otherwise noted. Both TRITON/NEWT and Polaris exhibited acceptable accuracy for most test cases. For the few test cases in which acceptable accuracy criteria were not met, further code and data development are planned. The computer codes used in this assessment are as follows: SCALE 6.2 rev19189 (pre-release of 6.2.1) was used for CE KENO, TRITON/NEWT and Polaris (PWR only) calculations; SCALE 6.2.2 was used for Polaris calculations to address several updates in support of support boiling water reactor (BWR) lattice geometries. For this work, there is no difference between SCALE 6.2.1 and SCALE 6.2.2 beyond the inclusion of the Polaris BWR analysis capability; The ENDF/B-VII.1 continuous energy and 252 group libraries deployed in SCALE 6.2 were generated with AMPX 6.2 that is distributed with SCALE.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Scalable Gaussian Process Approach to Shear Mapping with MuyGPs

Analysis of cosmic shear is an integral part of understanding structure growth across cosmic time, which in turn provides us with information about the nature of dark energy. Conventional methods generate shear maps from which we can infer the matter distribution in the universe. Current methods (e.g., Kaiser–Squires inversion) for generating these maps, however, are tricky to implement and can introduce bias. Recent alternatives construct a spatial process prior for the lensing potential, which allows for inference of the convergence and shear parameters given lensing shear measurements. Realizing these spatial processes, however, scales cubically in the number of observations—an unacceptable expense as near-term surveys expect billions of correlated measurements. Therefore, we present a linearly scaling shear map construction alternative using a scalable Gaussian process prior called MuyGPs. MuyGPs avoids cubic scaling by conditioning interpolation on only nearest neighbors and fits hyperparameters using batched leave-one-out cross-validation. This work is the first step toward a full, scalable mass mapping method. We work in a simplified regime where we validate our method by interpolating and analyzing maps given noisy point-estimate data from all three shear fields, taken from a suite of N -body ray-tracing simulations. We also show that we can perform these operations at the scale of billions of galaxies on high-performance computing platforms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: improved mitigation of spatially varying observational systematics with masking

As photometric surveys reach unprecedented statistical precision, systematic uncertainties increasingly dominate large-scale structure probes relying on galaxy number density. Defining the final survey footprint is critical, as it excludes regions affected by artefacts or suboptimal observing conditions. For galaxy clustering, spatially varying observational systematics, such as seeing, are a leading source of bias. Template maps of contaminants are used to derive spatially dependent corrections, but extreme values may fall outside the applicability range of mitigation methods, compromising correction reliability. The complexity and accuracy of systematics modelling depend on footprint conservativeness, with aggressive masking enabling simpler, robust mitigation. We present a unified approach to define the DES Year 6 joint footprint, integrating observational systematics templates and artefact indicators that degrade mitigation performance. This removes extreme values from an initial seed footprint, leading to the final joint footprint. By evaluating the DES Year 6 lens sample MagLim++ plus plus on this footprint, we enhance the Iterative Systematics Decontamination (ISD) method, detecting non-linear systematic contamination and improving correction accuracy. While the mask's impact on clustering is less significant than systematics decontamination, it remains non-negligible, comparable to statistical uncertainties in certain w(theta) scales and redshift bins. Supporting coherent analyses of galaxy clustering and cosmic shear, the final footprint spans 4031.04 deg2, setting the basis for DES Year 6 1x2pt, 2x2pt, and 3x2pt analyses. This work highlights how targeted masking strategies optimise the balance between statistical power and systematic control in Stage-III and -IV surveys.

Rodríguez-Monroy, M. [Madrid, IFT; IJCLab, Orsay]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tensor factorization for elucidating mechanisms of piezoresponse relaxation via dynamic Piezoresponse Force Spectroscopy

Spatially resolved time and voltage-dependent polarization dynamics in PbTiO 3 thin films is explored using dynamic piezoresponse force microscopy (D-PFM) in conjunction with interferometric displacement sensing. This approach gives rise to 4D data sets containing information on bias-dependent relaxation dynamics at each spatial location without long-range electrostatic artifacts. To interpret these data sets in the absence of defined physical models, we employ a non-negative tensor factorization method which clearly presents the data as a product of simple behaviors allowing for direct physics interpretation. Correspondingly, we perform phase-field modeling finding the existence of ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ domain wall edges. This approach can be extended to other multidimensional spectroscopies for which even exploratory data analysis leads to unsatisfactory results due to many components in the decomposition.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Future Climate Projections for South Florida: Improving the Accuracy of Air Temperature and Precipitation Extremes With a Hybrid Statistical Bias Correction Technique

Projecting future climate variables is essential for comprehending the potential impacts on hydroclimatic hazards like floods and droughts. Evaluating these impacts is challenging due to the coarse spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs); therefore, bias correction is widely used. Here, we applied two statistical methods—standard empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and a hybrid approach, EQM with linear correction (EQM-LIN)—to bias correct precipitation and air temperature simulated by nine GCMs. We used historical observations from 20 weather stations across South Florida to project future climate under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Compared to the EQM, the hybrid EQM-LIN method improved R 2 of daily quantiles by up to 30% over the historical period and improved MAE up to 70% in months that contain most extreme values. Projected extreme precipitation at the weather stations showed that, compared to the EQM-LIN, the EQM method underestimates the high quantiles by up to 26% in SSP585. The projected changes in annual maximum precipitation from historical period (1985–2014) to near future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2100) were between 2% and 16% across the study area. Projected future precipitation suggested a slight decrease during summer but an increase in fall. This, along with rising summer temperatures, suggested that South Florida can experience rapid oscillations from warmer summers and increased flooding in fall under future climate. Additionally, our comparative analyses with globally and nationally downscaled studies showed that such coarse scale studies do not represent the climatic extremes well, particularly for high quantile precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electroluminescence Characterization of Recombination in Back Junction Silicon Heterojunction Test Structures: Role of the Inversion Layer

Electroluminescence (EL) characterization technique is used to quantify recombination properties in back junction silicon (Si) heterojunction (HJ) solar cell test structures with interdigitated back contact (IBC) emitters and metal contacts. These test structures are three terminal devices that allow the selective biasing and injection of minority carriers into spatially isolated emitter strips having different widths. This allows the study of minority carriers' current transport, flow, and recombination in these regions, which can, then, be applied to full IBC cells. EL is used to verify that emission is proportional to the minority carriers' concentration in the corresponding regions of the device, thus providing information relevant to minority carriers' collection when compared with laser beam induced current technique in considerably less time and with a higher spatial resolution. Current transport through the inversion layer that occurs due to the band bending at the n crystalline Si and p amorphous Si interface is discussed relying on the distance that minority carriers travel in different configurations and on their diffusion length. Laser defect spots (LDS) were, then, introduced in the emitter regions to analyze the spatial profile of minority carriers as they recombine at the LDS due to their high surface recombination velocity. Ideality factors in different configurations are spatially mapped from EL before and after introducing LDS and are used to show the effect of the inversion layer on the different recombination mechanisms. Current transport through the inversion layer is studied at different biasing conditions and correlated with current transport after LDS.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

pyTDGL: Time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau in Python

Time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau (TDGL) theory is a phenomenological model for the dynamics of superconducting systems. Due to its simplicity in comparison to microscopic theories and its effectiveness in describing the observed properties of the superconducting state, TDGL is widely used to interpret or explain measurements of superconducting devices. Here, we introduce pyTDGL, a Python package that solves a generalized TDGL model for superconducting thin films of arbitrary geometry, enabling simulations of vortex and phase dynamics in mesoscopic superconducting devices. pyTDGL can model the nonlinear magnetic response and dynamics of multiply connected films, films with multiple current bias terminals, and films with a spatially inhomogeneous critical temperature. We demonstrate these capabilities by modeling quasi-equilibrium vortex distributions in irregularly shaped films, and the dynamics and current-voltage-field characteristics of nanoscale superconducting quantum interference devices (nanoSQUIDs).

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation derived from different observed datasets and their possible causes

As a leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic in both observations and model simulations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can have a substantial influence on regional and global climate. By using Low-Frequency Component Analysis, we explore the uncertainties of the resulting AMO indices and the corresponding spatial patterns derived from three observational SST datasets. We found that the known coherent spatial pattern of the AMO at the basin scale over the North Atlantic appears in two out of the three datasets. Further analysis indicates that both the warming trend and the different techniques used to construct these observed gridded SSTs contribute to the AMO’s spatial coherence over the North Atlantic, especially during periods of sparse data sampling. The SST in the Extended Reconstructed SST dataset version 5 (ERSSTv5), changes from being systematically below the other datasets during the dense sampling periods on either side of the Second World War (WWII), to systematically above the other datasets during WWII, thereby introducing an artificial 10–20-year variability that affects the AMO’s spatial coherence. This coherence in the AMO’s spatial pattern is also affected by bias adjustment in ERSSTv5 at relative cool (i.e., non-summer) seasons, and by the heterogeneous North Atlantic warming pattern. The different AMO patterns can induce the different effects of wind, surface heat fluxes, and then drive ocean circulation and its heat transport convergence, especially for some seasons. For AMO indices, both the different detrending methods and different observational data result in uncertainty for the period 1935–1950. Such SST uncertainty is important to detect the relative role of the atmosphere and ocean in shaping the AMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

In-Situ Luminescence Imaging of Perovskite Solar Cells Demonstrates Increasing Spatial Nonuniformity Upon Light-Soaking Degradation

In this work we investigate degradation rates of triplecation mixed-halide perovskite p-i-n solar cells. We present an accelerated stress testing procedure using periodic blue light-soaking at elevated temperatures until devices reach ~80% of their initial efficiency. We track light-induced degradation via in-situ: photoluminescence (PL), current-voltage (I-V) curves, and transient photovoltage. Devices underwent 165 hours of light bias at 65degrees C. Results suggest that spatial uniformity in PL intensity decreases as device degradation increases. This investigation lays the groundwork to address the current gap in understanding the interplay between device performance and the evolution of macroscopic features in perovskite solar cells. Thus, we believe spatial characterization techniques will play a crucial role in the commercialization of perovskite solar cells.

imaging↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatially resolved absolute quantitation in thin tissue by mass spectrometry

Mass spectrometry (MS) has become the de facto tool for routine quantitative analysis of biomolecules. MS is increasingly being used to reveal the spatial distribution of proteins, metabolites, and pharmaceuticals in tissue and interest in this area has led to a number of novel spatially resolved MS technologies. Most spatially resolved MS measurements are qualitative in nature due to a myriad of potential biases, such as sample heterogeneity, sampling artifacts, and ionization effects. As applications of spatially resolved MS in the pharmacological and clinical fields increase, demand has become high for quantitative MS imaging and profiling data. As a result, several varied technologies now exist that provide differing levels of spatial and quantitative information. Furthermore, this review provides an overview of MS profiling and imaging technologies that have demonstrated quantitative analysis from tissue. Focus is given on the fundamental processes affecting quantitative analysis in an array of MS imaging and profiling technologies and methods to address these biases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of an Unbiased Future Solar Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Research Over CONUS

A high-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for capturing the variability of solar energy resources and informing strategies to ensure grid reliability and resilience in systems with high levels of solar energy integration. This study focuses on generating unbiased, high-resolution projections of solar irradiance through a statistical downscaling framework, using Earth system model (ESM) simulations obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate statistical downscaling models. The newly developed dataset provides solar irradiance, surface air temperature, and surface wind speed at 4-km and hourly resolutions across the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This study outlines key steps in developing the high-resolution future solar dataset, including (1) regridding ESM data to a common 20-km resolution grid, (2) correcting ESM biases using the NSRDB, and (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar projections. Preliminary results indicate that downscaled projections (4-km) captured reasonable spatial patterns when compared to observations across CONUS for four variables. On average across all pixels, 4-km daily-total GHI and DNI projections showed normalized bias (nBias) less than 1% and 6% for GHI and DNI against NSRDB, respectively (nBias less than 1% and 5% for daily-average surface air temperature and surface wind speed). In terms of long-term trend for GHI and DNI, there was no strong increasing or decreasing trend (when compared to surface air temperature), but it showed a very weak decreasing trend.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

MODIS Aerosol and Low‐Cloud Retrievals: Orographic Effects in the Wake of Macquarie Island

Abstract Visible/infrared imagery from passive satellites is commonly relied upon to study low cloud microphysics over oceanic regions, including for the Southern Ocean (SO), but relatively little validation has been undertaken for the SO. In this article, we compare low‐cloud effective radius ( r e ), cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) and cloud liquid water path (LWP) retrievals from the NASA Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) with surface measurements collected during the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE). MODIS 3.7‐μm band retrievals show little bias and moderately good correlation relative to MICRE retrievals for liquid‐phase low clouds when restricted to Solar Zenith Angles <65° on spatial scales of 50–100 km. However, the low overall bias in 3.7‐μm band effective radius ( r e 3.7 ) retrievals partly results from cancellation of errors: r e 3.7 is overestimated for non‐to‐lightly precipitating clouds, and underestimated for heavier drizzling clouds by ∼1–1.5 μm. 1.6‐μm and 2.1‐μm band r e retrievals are biased high. N d may likewise be slightly under‐ or overestimated depending on the concentration, but there is insufficient data to provide confidence in this result. Interestingly, a composite of MODIS retrievals from 2002 to 2020 show a distinct region of enhanced cloud cover and N d (and lower r e ) in the wake of Macquarie Island associated with orographic cloud formation. MODIS retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Angstrom Exponent (AE) upwind and downwind of the island do not differ significantly. Comparison with MICRE measurements suggests that MODIS Collection 6 AOD retrievals are reasonable, while AE is problematically large.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric teleconnection associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability in summer: assessment of the CESM1 model

Observational analysis shows that the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is associated with climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere through a zonal atmospheric teleconnection extending from the North Atlantic Ocean and propagating eastward around the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we studied the fidelity of model simulations in reproducing the observed summer AMV and the associated impacts on the mid-latitude climate by analysing simulations using the National Centre for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1), including CESM1 North Atlantic idealized and pacemaker simulations, CESM1 large ensemble twentieth century uninitialized simulations and large ensemble initialized CESM1 decadal predictions. To further compare the fidelity of CESM1, we also analysed large ensemble simulations from three other models. Our results suggest that the uninitialized large ensemble simulations from all models can produce an AMV time evolution and its regional climate impacts similar to the observations to certain degree. By initializing the observed oceanic condition in decadal prediction simulations, the simulated AMV and its regional impacts are closer to the observed ones than those in uninitialized ensemble simulations. In addition, the pacemaker simulations that nudged the time-evolving observed North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies produce spatiotemporal characteristics of the AMV and AMV climate impacts closer to the observed ones than the uninitialized simulations. We conclude that although coupled models can produce AMV and its regional impacts similar to observed, proper initialization and bias correction of the sea surface temperature spatial and temporal structure can improve this capability.

Initialization↗