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Full-Coverage High-Resolution Daily PM(sub 2.5) Estimation using MAIAC AOD in the Yangtze River Delta of China

Satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been used to assess population exposure to fine particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5)). The emerging high-resolution satellite aerosol product, Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction(MAIAC), provides a valuable opportunity to characterize local-scale PM(sub 2.5) at 1-km resolution. However, non-random missing AOD due to cloud snow cover or high surface reflectance makes this task challenging. Previous studies filled the data gap by spatially interpolating neighboring PM(sub 2.5) measurements or predictions. This strategy ignored the effect of cloud cover on aerosol loadings and has been shown to exhibit poor performance when monitoring stations are sparse or when there is seasonal large-scale missngness. Using the Yangtze River Delta of China as an example, we present a Multiple Imputation (MI) method that combines the MAIAC high-resolution satellite retrievals with chemical transport model (CTM) simulations to fill missing AOD. A two-stage statistical model driven by gap-filled AOD, meteorology and land use information was then fitted to estimate daily ground PM(sub 2.5) concentrations in 2013 and 2014 at 1 km resolution with complete coverage in space and time. The daily MI models have an average R(exp 2) of 0.77, with an inter-quartile range of 0.71 to 0.82 across days. The overall Ml model 10-fold cross-validation R(exp 2) (root mean square error) were 0.81 (25 gm(exp 3)) and 0.73 (18 gm(exp 3)) for year 2013 and 2014, respectively. Predictions with only observational AOD or only imputed AOD showed similar accuracy.Comparing with previous gap-filling methods, our MI method presented in this study performed bette rwith higher coverage, higher accuracy, and the ability to fill missing PM(sub 2.5) predictions without ground PM(sub 2.5) measurements. This method can provide reliable PM(sub 2.5)predictions with complete coverage that can reduce biasin exposure assessment in air pollution and health studies.

PM2.5↗

File Specification for M2AMIP Products: Version Number - 1.0

The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) is an atmospheric reanalysis computed with the Goddard Earth Observing (EOS) System, Version 5.12.4 (GEOS) data assimilation system (Gelaro et al., 2017). To supplement the reanalysis, the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) used in MERRA-2 has been used to generate a 10-member ensemble of simulations, configured following the convention of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP; Gates et al., 1992). Each ensemble member was initialized using meteorological fields from a different date in November 1979. The AMIP simulations used the sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary conditions that were used in MERRA-2 (Bosilovich et al., 2016). This 10-member ensemble of AMIP simulations, denoted M2AMIP, is available for download in a group of self-describing files, which are documented in this office note. All data collections are provided on the same horizontal grid as MERRA-2. This grid has 576 points in the longitudinal direction and 361 points in the latitudinal direction, corresponding to a resolution of 0.625 degrees by 0.5 degrees. Although data collections are available at this grid, all fields are computed on a cubed-sphere grid with an approximate resolution of 50 km by 50 km and are then spatially interpolated to the latitude-longitude grid. There are no changes in the vertical grids used: variables are provided on either the native vertical grid of 72 model layers, or interpolated to 42 standard pressure levels. Unlike MERRA, no data collections are available at the vertical layer edges. More details on the grid are provided in Section 4. MERRA-2 introduced observation-based precipitation forcing for the land surface parameterization and the corresponding variable PRECTOTCORR in the MERRA-2 FLX (surface turbulent fluxes and related quantities) and LFO (land-surface forcing) collections (see Section 6; Reichle et al., 2017). While this variable is still available for M2AMIP, there was no observation-based forcing, making the value identical to the model derived precipitation, PRECTOT. Similarly, without data assimilation, the values for the analysis increments, D*DTANA, in the tendency and vertically integrated file collections are zero. The M2AMIP data are available for download online through the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) DataPortal (https://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/datashare/gmao_m2amip/). Data are arranged in subdirectories based on ensemble member, followed by year and month. Control files that are compatible with the Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) are available in the ctl_daily and ctl_monthly directories for the hourly, three hourly, and monthly mean data. Control files for the monthly mean diurnal cycle can be found in the ctl_diurnal subdirectory within the directory for each individual ensemble member.

M2AMIP↗

Spatial and Temporal Interpolation Analysis Process of Shock Loading

The following document serves to describe the current process that is utilized by W-13 analysts to approximate the pressure-time boundary condition seen by a test object from shock tube loading. The intent of this report is to capture the current capability and to encourage continued growth and development. Information on the required input variables, mapping process, and generated output information is covered in the following sections. Throughout the document, gaps and weaknesses of the mapping process are noted to encourage future development efforts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Geostatistical interpolation of streambed hydrologic attributes with addition of left censored data and anisotropy

Spatial geostatistical interpolation of point measurements of streambed attributes in the hyporheic zone may be constrained by the streambed anisotropy, and data density and spatial distribution may significantly impact the results. Spatial clustering and low spatial data density can be caused by bedrock outcropping at the streambed limiting installation of in-stream piezometers. This study examines parameter error variability of the geostatistical interpolation using anisotropic interpolation methods and increasing the data density by adding left censored values (i.e., data below measurement limit) to locations where measurements were limited by exposed bedrock lining the streambed. The reduction in relative standard error of the interpolation was determined for the spatial distributions of streambed attributes including hydraulic conductivity, seepage flux, and mercury solute flux measured in two different years along a study reach in East Fork Poplar Creek, Tennessee, USA. Here, two methods to impute the left censored values were compared including the conventional half the detection limit substitution method, and the Stochastic Approximation of Expectation-Maximization (SAEM) algorithm, which both had comparable results. Imputing left censored data increased the data density to recommended ranges, reduced data clustering, increased the spatial dependence for some attributes, and reduced the standard error for each of the three attributes. For the reach considered herein, addition of the left censored values resulted in a larger error reduction than the consideration of anisotropy within the interpolation, which confirms the benefit of data addition to increase data density within data-limited river corridors.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessing the Uncertainty Impact of CERES Fast Longwave and SHortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux) Level 3 Product With and Without Terra Observations

The Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides satellite-based observations of how Earth’s energy flows are varying in time and space and how clouds and aerosols are affecting the Earth’s radiation budget. Nominally, CERES data products require months of validation and calibration before releasing a climate quality data. The Fast Longwave And SHortwave radiative Flux (FLASHFlux) data product was developed to provide data for applied science research involving the renewable energy and agricultural sectors within a week of observation. FLASHFlux achieves this by using simplified calibration, an operational meteorological product from Global Monitoring and Assimilation Office (GMAO), and a surface parameterizations model. The CERES FLASHFlux provides two data products: 1) an hourly Level 2 Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data separately for Terra and NOAA-20 observations. 2) a daily Level 3 Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged (TISA) gridded data that combines NOAA-20 and Terra observations on a one-degree equal angle grid. FLASHFlux TISA data product interpolate on a diurnal model that assumes a satellite equilateral crossing time of 10:30 AM and 1:30 PM from Terra and Aqua, respectively. Aqua was replaced by NOAA-20 starting on September 2022. Terra is planned to be replace by the Satellite ClOud and Radiation Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) soon. We are currently using the Terra observations as it continues to drift. We assess the impact of FLASHFlux TISA data when Terra is removed. An uncertainty estimate of the Top-Of-Atmosphere (TOA) fluxes are given of FLASHFlux Version4A (before Terra drift) and Version4B (current), and Version4B (no Terra) in comparison to the CERES EBAF and SYN1deg. In addition, we compare FLASHFlux Version4B and Version4B (no Terra) surface radiative fluxes to ground base measurements to determine the impact of running without Terra data.

PC Sawaengphokhai↗

On the uncertainty of estimating photovoltaic soiling using nearby soiling data

The accumulation of dust on the surface of photovoltaic modules can reduce their performance and affect the cost competitiveness of this technology. This phenomenon is known as soiling and can be mitigated through appropriate corrective and/or preventive actions. In order to maximize its effectiveness, it is important to plan the soiling mitigation strategy even before the PV system is operational. This is typically done through a nearest neighbor approach, by estimating soiling using data from the nearest operational photovoltaic system. This work focuses on understanding the uncertainty related to this practice. For this purpose, the semi-variance function is used to study the dissimilarity between the soiling losses of two locations in California depending on their distance. The results show that, when the soiling loss at a nearby system is used to estimate soiling of a site, the uncertainty can be approximated to increase linearly at a rate of 0.08-0.10%/km up to 60 or 80 km. After this distance, the use of a nearest neighbor approach is no longer justified, as it produces an uncertainty as big as the average soiling loss of the sites in the dataset used in this study. In some conditions, uncertainties > 0% are found also for sites located within 25 km, meaning that even close-by systems might soil differently.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Space and time aliasing structure is monthly mean polar-orbiting satellite data

Monthly mean wind fields from the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS1) scatterometer are presented. A banded structure which resembles the satellite subtrack is clearly and consistently apparent in the isotachs as well as the u and v components of the routinely produced fields. The structure also appears in the means of data from other polar-orbiting satellites and instruments. An experiment is designed to trace the cause of the banded structure. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) gridded surface wind analyses are used as a control set. These analyses are also sampled with the ERS1 temporal-spatial samplig pattern to form a simulated scatterometer wind set. Both sets are used to create monthly averages. The banded structures appear in the monthly mean simulated data but do not appear in the control set. It is concluded that the source of the banded structure lies in the spatial and temporal sampling of the polar-orbiting satellite which results in undersampling. The problem involves multiple timescales and space scales, oversampling and under-sampling in space, aliasing in the time and space domains, and preferentially sampled variability. It is shown that commonly used spatial smoothers (or filters), while producing visually pleasing results, also significantly bias the true mean. A three-dimensional spatial-temporal interpolator is designed and used to determine the mean field. It is found to produce satisfactory monthly means from both simulated and real ERS1 data. The implications to climate studies involving polar-orbiting satellite data are discussed.

Zeng, Lixin↗

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation

Accurate knowledge of soil moisture at the continental scale is important for improving predictions of weather, agricultural productivity and natural hazards, but observations of soil moisture at such scales are limited to indirect measurements, either obtained through satellite remote sensing or from meteorological networks. Land surface models simulate soil moisture processes, using observation-based meteorological forcing data, and auxiliary information about soil, terrain and vegetation characteristics. Enhanced estimates of soil moisture and other land surface variables, along with their uncertainty, can be obtained by assimilating observations of soil moisture into land surface models. These assimilation results are of direct relevance for the initialization of hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting systems. The success of the assimilation depends on the choice of the assimilation technique, the nature of the model and the assimilated observations, and, most importantly, the characterization of model and observation error. Systematic differences between satellite-based microwave observations or satellite-retrieved soil moisture and their simulated counterparts require special attention. Other challenges include inferring root-zone soil moisture information from observations that pertain to a shallow surface soil layer, propagating information to unobserved areas and downscaling of coarse information to finer-scale soil moisture estimates. This chapter summarizes state-of-the-art solutions to these issues with conceptual data assimilation examples, using techniques ranging from simplified optimal interpolation to spatial ensemble Kalman filtering. In addition, operational soil moisture assimilation systems are discussed that support numerical weather prediction at ECMWF and provide value-added soil moisture products for the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive mission.

radar backscatter↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-33912-DND

The agricultural, renewable energy management, and science communities need global surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes on a near real-time basis for uses such as building energy performance monitoring and seasonal crop yield modeling. The Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) FLASHFlux (Fast Longwave and SHortwave radiative Flux) data products address this need by enhancing the speed of CERES processing using simplified calibration, averaging techniques and fast radiation parameterizations to produce global fluxes within a week of satellite observations. The CERES FLASHFlux provides two data products: 1) an hourly Level 2 Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data separately for Aqua and Terra observations, and 2) a daily Level 3 Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged (TISA) 1degree x 1degree gridded data that combines Aqua and Terra observations. The CERES FLASHFlux Version4A includes an update to process MODIS Collection 6.1 in an improved cloud retrieval algorithm, and an update to the CERES Edition 4 angular distribution models. We inter-compared FLASHFlux Version4A, FLASHFlux Version3C, and CERES EBAF (Energy Balanced and Filled) Top-of-Atmosphere fluxes to evaluate these improvements. We also compare both SSF overpass and TISA radiative flux products to a set of surface measurement sites that are globally distributed and assess agreement. FLASHFlux TISA and CERES EBAF are used in the analysis of TOA anomalies for the annual State of Climate report. This also poster highlights the methodology use to merge the two data products by correcting the bias in FLASHFlux TISA and inter-calibrate to CERES EBAF.

Parnchai K Sawaengphokhai↗

CERES Fast Longwave And SHortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux): Research to Operation

The Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides satellite-based observations of how Earth’s energy flows are varying in time and space and how clouds and aerosols are affecting the Earth’s radiation budget. Nominally, CERES data products require months of validation and calibration before releasing a climate quality data. The Fast Longwave and Shortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux) data product was developed as to provide key radiative flux data products within a week of observations for scientific, applied science research and educational usage. FLASHFlux achieves this by using simplified calibration process and optimized CERES data fusion production system, an operation meteorology product from Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO), and surface parameterized radiative flux models. The CERES FLASHFlux provides two data products: 1) an hourly Level 2 Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data separately for Aqua and Terra observations, and 2) a daily Level 3 Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged (TISA) 1ox1o gridded data that combines Aqua and Terra observations.The current operational Version 3C is being transitioned to Version4A. We compare the FLASHFlux Version4A fluxes using the specialized calibration to Version3C and to the climate quality CERES Edition4A TOA and surface fluxes over time for Terra and Aqua to determine the uncertainties of the calibration process. In addition, we also compare the impact of the fluxes by using the near real-time GMAO GEOS FP-IT instead of GMAO G5-CERES meteorology data.We also compare both SSF overpass products (for Terra and Aqua) and TISA radiative flux products to a set of surface measurement sites that are globally distributed and assess agreement.Lastly, we introduce the first CERES FF SSF data products from the CERES instrument on board NOAA-20.

P Sawaengphokhai↗

CERES Fast Longwave And SHortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux): Research to Operation

The Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides satellite-based observations of how Earth’s energy flows are varying in time and space and how clouds and aerosols are affecting the Earth’s radiation budget. Nominally, CERES data products require months of validation and calibration before releasing a climate quality data. The Fast Longwave and Shortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux) data product was developed as to provide key data for applied science research involving the renewable energy and agricultural sectors within a week of observations. FLASHFlux achieves this by using simplified calibration, an operation meteorology product from Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), and its own surface parameterizations model. The CERES FLASHFlux provides two data products: 1) an hourly Level 2 Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data separately for Aqua and Terra observations, and 2) a daily Level 3 Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged (TISA) 1ox 1ogridded data that combines Aqua and Terra observations. We inter-compared of FLASHFlux Version4A calibration to the climate quality CERES Edition4A data product over time. In addition, we also inter-compared the impact of the fluxes by using the near real-time GMAO GEOS FP-IT instead of GMAO G5-CERES meteorology data. We also compare both SSF overpass and TISA radiative flux products to a set of surface measurement sites that are globally distributed and assess agreement.

P. C. Sawaengphokhai↗

CERES FLASHFlux: Low Latency Data Product for Education and Applied Science Uses

The Fast Longwave and Shortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux) data product was developed to provide a rapid release version of the CERES results, which are made available to the GLOBE (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment) program and the applied science research communities involving in the renewable energy and agricultural sectors within a week of the satellite observations by exchanging some accuracy for speed. FLASHFlux provides two data products: 1) an hourly Level 2 Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data separately for Terra, Aqua, and NOAA-20 observations, and 2) a daily Level 3 Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged (TISA) 1-degree equal angle gridded data the combines Terra and Aqua observations. However, since both Terra and Aqua satellites are nearing end of life, the FLASHFlux data product will begin to transition to utilizing NOAA-20 observation in the TISA data product. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on board the NOAA-20 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Aqua satellites have different optics and spectral channels. We quantify the differences in the Level 2 SSF data products between the two satellites over a few sample months for cloud and radiative flux quantities for both the shortwave (solar wavelengths) and longwave (thermal infrared wavelengths) at TOA and surface. In addition, we also assess the impact of using NOAA-20 in place of Aqua in the Level 3 FLASHFlux TISA daily product on the TOA and surface radiative fluxes. Additionally, we highlight use case of FLASHFlux data product in combination with CERES EBAF to assess the Earth’s Radiation Budget, the accuracy of FLASHFlux data product compares to Surface sites measurement, and users of the FLASHFlux data through the POWER (Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) program.

PC Sawaengphokhai↗

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Surface Longwave and Shortwave Fluxes Trained on CERES Observations

The Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides satellite-based observations of the radiative fluxes and clouds systems. CERES climate quality data products typically take several months of calibration and validation before release to the public. The Fast Longwave and Shortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux) data product was developed to provide key data for the applied sciences and educational users within a week of observation. FLASHFlux achieves this by using simplified calibration, an operational meteorological product from Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), and its own surface parameterizations model. The CERES FLASHFlux provides two data products: 1) an hourly Level 2 Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data separately for Terra and NOAA-20 observations, and 2) a daily Level 3 Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged (TISA) 1o x 1o gridded data that combines Terra and NOAA-20 observations. Currently, FLASHFlux uses the Langley Parameterized Shortwave Algorithm (LPSA) and Langley Parameterized Longwave Algorithm (LPLA) to derive its surface fluxes (Kratz et al., 2010; Gupta et al, 2001). A new Machine Learning (ML) based approach using Artificial Neural Networks to derive Surface Longwave (LW) & Shortwave (SW) fluxes based on training data from the CERES Clouds Radiative Swath (CRS) product is being investigated to replace LPSA and LPLA in the SSF surface flux products. One of the biggest hurdles in training ML model is model fitting. To overcome the problem of overfitting we use feature engineering that helps in finding the important feature and remove features that are irrelevant to the model. In our training we employed the Leave-One-Feature-Out Importance (LOFO) to evaluate the significance of each feature in our training. We intercompare ANN fluxes against surface fluxes produced from the Fu-Liou model in CRS and the LPSA/LPLA in FLASHFlux SSF. Furthermore, we validated ANN derived fluxes to the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN).

P C Sawaengphokhai↗

MAGIC: A Tool for Combining, Interpolating, and Processing Magnetograms

Transients in the solar coronal magnetic field are ultimately the source of space weather. Models which seek to track the evolution of the coronal field require magnetogram images to be used as boundary conditions. These magnetograms are obtained by numerous instruments with different cadences and resolutions. A tool is required which allows modelers to fmd all available data and use them to craft accurate and physically consistent boundary conditions for their models. We have developed a software tool, MAGIC (MAGnetogram Interpolation and Composition), to perform exactly this function. MAGIC can manage the acquisition of magneto gram data, cast it into a source-independent format, and then perform the necessary spatial and temporal interpolation to provide magnetic field values as requested onto model-defined grids. MAGIC has the ability to patch magneto grams from different sources together providing a more complete picture of the Sun's field than is possible from single magneto grams. In doing this, care must be taken so as not to introduce nonphysical current densities along the seam between magnetograms. We have designed a method which minimizes these spurious current densities. MAGIC also includes a number of post-processing tools which can provide additional information to models. For example, MAGIC includes an interface to the DA VE4VM tool which derives surface flow velocities from the time evolution of surface magnetic field. MAGIC has been developed as an application of the KAMELEON data formatting toolkit which has been developed by the CCMC.

Allred, Joel↗

DSGAN

This study develops a neural network-based approach for emulating high-resolution modeled precipitation data with comparable statistical properties but at greatly reduced computational cost. The key idea is to use combination of low-and high- resolution simulations to train a neural network to map from the former to the latter. Specifically, we define two types of CNNs, one that stacks variables directly and one that encodes each variable before stacking, and we train each CNN type both with a conventional loss function, such as mean square error (MSE), and with a conditional generative adversarial network (CGAN), for a total of four CNN variants. We compare the four new CNN-derived high-resolution precipitation results with precipitation generated from original high resolution simulations, a bilinear interpolater and the state-of-the-art CNN-based super-resolution (SR) technique. Results show that the SR technique produces results similar to those of the bilinear interpolator with smoother spatial and temporal distributions and smaller data variabilities and extremes than the original high resolution simulations. While the new CNNs trained by MSE generate better results over some regions than the interpolator and SR technique do, their predictions are still not as close as the original high resolution simulations. The CNNs trained by CGAN generate more realistic and physically reasonable results, better capturing not only data variability in time and space but also extremes such as intense and long-lasting storms. The new proposed CNN-based downscaling approach can downscale precipitation from 50~km to 12~km in 14~min for 30~years

LIU, ZHENGCHUN↗

Fast and accurate learned multiresolution dynamical downscaling for precipitation

Abstract. This study develops a neural-network-based approach for emulating high-resolution modeled precipitation data with comparable statistical properties but at greatly reduced computational cost. The key idea is to use combination of low- and high-resolution simulations (that differ not only in spatial resolution but also in geospatial patterns) to train a neural network to map from the former to the latter. Specifically, we define two types of CNNs, one that stacks variables directly and one that encodes each variable before stacking, and we train each CNN type both with a conventional loss function, such as mean square error (MSE), and with a conditional generative adversarial network (CGAN), for a total of four CNN variants. We compare the four new CNN-derived high-resolution precipitation results with precipitation generated from original high-resolution simulations, a bilinear interpolater and the state-of-the-art CNN-based super-resolution (SR) technique. Results show that the SR technique produces results similar to those of the bilinear interpolator with smoother spatial and temporal distributions and smaller data variabilities and extremes than the original high-resolution simulations. While the new CNNs trained by MSE generate better results over some regions than the interpolator and SR technique do, their predictions are still biased from the original high-resolution simulations. The CNNs trained by CGAN generate more realistic and physically reasonable results, better capturing not only data variability in time and space but also extremes such as intense and long-lasting storms. The new proposed CNN-based downscaling approach can downscale precipitation from 50 to 12 km in 14 min for 30 years once the network is trained (training takes 4 h using 1 GPU), while the conventional dynamical downscaling would take 1 month using 600 CPU cores to generate simulations at the resolution of 12 km over the contiguous United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗