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At least 55 records · Page 3

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) gridded data products

A well documented, publicly available, global data set for surface ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) parameters has been called for by international groups for nearly two decades. The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) project was initiated by the international marine carbon science community in 2007 with the aim of providing a comprehensive, publicly available, regularly updated, global data set of marine surface CO2, which had been subject to quality control (QC). SOCAT version 1.5 was made public in September 2011 and holds 6.3 million quality controlled surface CO2 data from the global oceans and coastal seas, spanning four decades (1968 2007). The SOCAT gridded data is the second data product to come from the SOCAT project. Recognizing that some groups may have trouble working with millions of measurements, the SOCAT gridded product was generated to provide a robust regularly spaced fCO2 product with minimal spatial and temporal interpolation which should be easier to work with for many applications. Gridded SOCAT is rich with information that has not been fully explored yet, but also contains biases and limitations that the user needs to recognize and address.

gridded data↗

The FLOod Probability Interpolation Tool (FLOPIT): A Simple Tool to Improve Spatial Flood Probability Quantification and Communication

Understanding flood probabilities is essential to making sound decisions about flood-risk management. Many people rely on flood probability maps to inform decisions about purchasing flood insurance, buying or selling real-estate, flood-proofing a house, or managing floodplain development. Current flood probability maps typically use flood zones (for example the 1 in 100 or 1 in 500-year flood zones) to communicate flooding probabilities. However, this choice of communication format can miss important details and lead to biased risk assessments. Here we develop, test, and demonstrate the FLOod Probability Interpolation Tool (FLOPIT). FLOPIT interpolates flood probabilities between water surface elevation to produce continuous flood-probability maps. FLOPIT uses water surface elevation inundation maps for at least two return periods and creates Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) as well as inundation maps for new return levels. Potential advantages of FLOPIT include being open-source, relatively easy to implement, capable of creating inundation maps from agencies other than FEMA, and applicable to locations where FEMA published flood inundation maps but not flood probability. Using publicly available data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood risk databases as well as state and national datasets, we produce continuous flood-probability maps at three example locations in the United States: Houston (TX), Muncy (PA), and Selinsgrove (PA). We find that the discrete flood zones generally communicate substantially lower flood probabilities than the continuous estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automated Estimation of the DARHT Radiographic Spot Size from Spatially Modulated Images

We wrote a software routine to find local extrema and calculate the contrast in the image for each feature set. The input is a KTO image in the standard DARHT orientation, pre-processed by flat-fielding, dark frame subtraction and de-warping. Table 1 shows contrast results for five contemporaneous DARHT images of the KTO. For some very dense feature sets, contrast measurements are not possible due to a lack of local extrema, and in this case no contrast value is given in the table. Highlighted in bold are the contrast values for each image that bound the threshold C = 0.01. The contrast is varying rapidly enough with spatial frequency that we can interpolate between these values to find an estimate of the spatial frequency at the threshold value.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Selection of polynomial chaos bases via Bayesian model uncertainty methods with applications to sparse approximation of PDEs with stochastic inputs

Generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions allow us to represent the solution of a stochastic system using a series of polynomial chaos basis functions. The number of gPC terms increases dramatically as the dimension of the random input variables increases. When the number of the gPC terms is larger than that of the available samples, a scenario that often occurs when the corresponding deterministic solver is computationally expensive, evaluation of the gPC expansion can be inaccurate due to over-fitting. We propose a fully Bayesian approach that allows for global recovery of the stochastic solutions, in both spatial and random domains, by coupling Bayesian model uncertainty and regularization regression methods. It allows the evaluation of the PC coefficients on a grid of spatial points, via (1) the Bayesian model average (BMA) or (2) the median probability model, and their construction as spatial functions on the spatial domain via spline interpolation. The former accounts for the model uncertainty and provides Bayes-optimal predictions; while the latter provides a sparse representation of the stochastic solutions by evaluating the expansion on a subset of dominating gPC bases. Moreover, the proposed methods quantify the importance of the gPC bases in the probabilistic sense through inclusion probabilities. We design a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler that evaluates all the unknown quantities without the need of ad-hoc techniques. The proposed methods are suitable for, but not restricted to, problems whose stochastic solutions are sparse in the stochastic space with respect to the gPC bases while the deterministic solver involved is expensive. We demonstrate the accuracy and performance of the proposed methods and make comparisons with other approaches on solving elliptic SPDEs with 1-, 14- and 40-random dimensions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SHARP: A Spatially Higher-order, Relativistic Particle-in-cell Code

Numerical heating in particle-in-cell (PIC) codes currently precludes the accurate simulation of cold, relativistic plasma over long periods, severely limiting their applications in astrophysical environments. We present a spatially higher-order accurate relativistic PIC algorithm in one spatial dimension, which conserves charge and momentum exactly. We utilize the smoothness implied by the usage of higher-order interpolation functions to achieve a spatially higher-order accurate algorithm (up to the fifth order). We validate our algorithm against several test problems—thermal stability of stationary plasma, stability of linear plasma waves, and two-stream instability in the relativistic and non-relativistic regimes. Comparing our simulations to exact solutions of the dispersion relations, we demonstrate that SHARP can quantitatively reproduce important kinetic features of the linear regime. Our simulations have a superior ability to control energy non-conservation and avoid numerical heating in comparison to common second-order schemes. We provide a natural definition for convergence of a general PIC algorithm: the complement of physical modes captured by the simulation, i.e., those that lie above the Poisson noise, must grow commensurately with the resolution. This implies that it is necessary to simultaneously increase the number of particles per cell and decrease the cell size. We demonstrate that traditional ways for testing for convergence fail, leading to plateauing of the energy error. This new PIC code enables us to faithfully study the long-term evolution of plasma problems that require absolute control of the energy and momentum conservation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Local time–space mesh refinement for simulation of elastic wave propagation in multi-scale media

This paper presents an original approach to local time–space grid refinement for the numerical simulation of wave propagation in models with localized clusters of micro-heterogeneities. The main features of the algorithm are –the application of temporal and spatial refinement on two different surfaces; –the use of the embedded-stencil technique for the refinement of grid step with respect to time; –the use of the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT)-based interpolation to couple variables for spatial mesh refinement. The latter makes it possible to perform filtration of high spatial frequencies, which provides stability in the proposed finite-difference schemes. In the present work, the technique is implemented for the finite-difference simulation of seismic wave propagation and the interaction of such waves with fluid-filled fractures and cavities of carbonate reservoirs. However, this approach is easy to adapt and/or combine with other numerical techniques, such as finite elements, discontinuous Galerkin method, or finite volumes used for approximation of various types of linear and nonlinear hyperbolic equations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Measurement and Modeling of Solar and PV Output Variability: Preprint

This paper seeks to understand what temporal and spatial scales of variability in global horizontal radiation are important to a PV plants and what measurements are needed to be able to characterize them. As solar radiation measuring instruments are point receivers it is important to understand how those measurements translate to energy received over a larger spatial extent. Also of importance isthe temporal natural of variability over large spatial areas. In this research we use high temporal and spatial resolution measurements from multiple sensors at a site in Hawaii to create solar radiation fields at various spatial and temporal scales. Five interpolation schemes were considered and the high resolution solar fields were converted to power production for a PV power plant. It wasfound that the interpolation schemes are robust and create ramp distributions close to what would be computed if the average solar radiation field was used. We also investigated the possibility of using time averaged solar data from 1 sensor to recreate the ramp distribution from the 17 sensors. It was found that the ramping distribution from using appropriately time averaged data from 1 sensorcan reasonably match the distribution created using the 17 sensor network.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Measurement and Modeling of Solar and PV Output Variability

This paper seeks to understand what temporal and spatial scales of variability in global horizontal radiation are important to a PV plants and what measurements are needed to be able to characterize them. As solar radiation measuring instruments are point receivers it is important to understand how those measurements translate to energy received over a larger spatial extent. Also of importance is the temporal natural of variability over large spatial areas. In this research we use high temporal and spatial resolution measurements from multiple sensors at a site in Hawaii to create solar radiation fields at various spatial and temporal scales. Five interpolation schemes were considered and the high resolution solar fields were converted to power production for a PV power plant. It was found that the interpolation schemes are robust and create ramp distributions close to what would be computed if the average solar radiation field was used. We also investigated the possibility of using time averaged solar data from 1 sensor to recreate the ramp distribution from the 17 sensors. It was found that the ramping distribution from using appropriately time averaged data from 1 sensor can reasonably match the distribution created using the 17 sensor network.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Supervised Learning-Based Spatial Position Estimation with Vertical Displacement for Hovering UAV Wireless Power Transfer

This study presents a supervised learning-based spatial position estimation approach for wireless power transfer (WPT) systems supporting hovering unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) charging. Unlike stationary charging scenarios, hovering UAVs introduce continuous lateral misalignment and vertical displacement, leading to variations in magnetic coupling and reduced power transfer efficiency. To address this challenge, the proposed method estimates the relative spatial position of the receiver coil using only electrical measurements obtained at the secondary side. A supervised learning model is trained to map output voltage and current features to spatial coordinates, enabling position awareness without requiring external sensors, vision systems, or communication links. The sensing functionality is inherently integrated into the WPT system, allowing simultaneous power transfer and localization through the same magnetic interface. Experimental validation is conducted on a laboratory-scale prototype under varying lateral offsets and air-gap conditions. In addition, spline-based interpolation is employed to increase spatial data density for training. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework can capture spatial variations associated with both lateral and vertical displacement, providing reliable position estimation under hovering conditions. This work establishes a hardware-efficient, sensorless solution for UAV wireless charging and serves as a baseline for advanced data-driven position estimation methods in dynamic WPT systems.

Asa, Erdem [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190884812)↗

Detection of surface water temperature variations of Mongolian lakes benefiting from the spatially and temporally gap-filled MODIS data

Lakes provide critical water resources for human activities and ecosystems, particularly in the Mongolian Plateau (MP), which is characterized by a dry climate and a harsh environment. As a region that is sensitive to anthropogenic warming, tracking lake surface water temperature (LSWT) changes in Mongolian lakes is crucial for understanding the consequences of a warming climate on lake ecosystems. However, the long-term monitoring of LSWT is restricted by the spatiotemporal gaps in the raw imagery of remote sensing-based land surface temperature (LST), e.g., the commonly used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST products. This study applied an improved gap-filling method by utilizing the discrete cosine transform-based penalized least squares (DCT-PLS) strategy in the spatial domain combined with the linear interpolation (LI) algorithm in the temporal domain. The method was applied to fill gaps in the LSWT imagery of 12 representative lakes across MP. The randomly sampled high-quality MODIS LSWT values in the spatial and temporal domains were excavated as false data gaps and considered “virtual true” validation datasets. The spatial validation results showed that the estimated LSWT for all the lake cases were comparable with the “virtual true” LSWT values, with the average values of the coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, mean square error, and root mean square error being 0.98, 0.38 °C, 0.45 °C, and 0.59 °C, respectively. Meanwhile, the error of nighttime LSWT results was relatively lower than that of daytime LSWT. For temporal interpolation validation, the LI algorithm exhibited relatively better performance and could more objectively indicate the variation in LSWT. Benefiting from the spatially and temporally well-constrained data, we analyzed the interannual and intra-annual change characteristics of the LSWTs of the 12 lakes. The long-term variations of annual and seasonal mean LSWTs in the 12 selected lakes exhibited no evident trends in 2000–2020, while presented apparent interannual fluctuations. The slight changes in the average LSWTs of the 12 selected lakes were in excellent synchronization with the surrounding LST derived from the reanalysis datasets, confirming the widely reported phenomenon of “global warming hiatus” that occurred in the early 21st century. This study improves the understanding of the LSWT variations in Mongolian lakes in response to global climate change. It has the potential to provide an effective approach for monitoring LSWT changes in other large-scale studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improved spectral data unfolding for radiochromic film imaging spectroscopy of laser-accelerated proton beams

An improved method to unfold the space-resolved proton energy distribution function of laser-accelerated proton beams using a layered, radiochromic film (RCF) detector stack has been developed. The method takes into account the reduced RCF response near the Bragg peak due to a high linear energy transfer (LET). This LET dependence of the active RCF layer has been measured, and published data have been re-interpreted to find a nonlinear saturation scaling of the RCF response with stopping power. Accounting for the LET effect increased the integrated particle yield by 25% after data unfolding. An iterative, analytical, space-resolved deconvolution of the RCF response functions from the measured dose was developed that does not rely on fitting. After the particle number unfold, three-dimensional interpolation is performed to determine the spatial proton beam distribution for proton energies in-between the RCF data points. Here, image morphing has been implemented as a novel interpolation method that takes into account the energy-dependent, changing beam topology.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Rapid subsurface analysis of frequency-domain thermoreflectance images with K-means clustering

K-means clustering analysis is applied to frequency-domain thermoreflectance (FDTR) hyperspectral image data to rapidly screen the spatial distribution of thermophysical properties at material interfaces. Performing FDTR while raster scanning a sample consisting of 8.6 μm of doped-silicon (Si) bonded to a doped-Si substrate identifies spatial variation in the subsurface bond quality. Routine thermal analysis at select pixels quantifies this variation in bond quality and allows assignment of bonded, partially bonded, and unbonded regions. Performing this same routine thermal analysis across the entire map, however, becomes too computationally demanding for rapid screening of bond quality. To address this, K-means clustering was used to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset from more than 20 000 pixel spectra to just K = 3 component spectra. The three component spectra were then used to express every pixel in the image through a least-squares minimized linear combination providing continuous interpolation between the components across spatially varying features, e.g., bonded to unbonded transition regions. Fitting the component spectra to the thermal model, thermal properties for each K cluster are extracted and then distributed according to the weighting established by the regressed linear combination. Thermophysical property maps are then constructed and capture significant variation in bond quality over 25 μm length scales. The use of K-means clustering to achieve these thermal property maps results in a 74-fold speed improvement over explicit fitting of every pixel.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Assessment of the hydromechanical higher-order MPM for the simulation of geotechnical problems

The Material Point Method (MPM) has been increasingly used to simulate large strain deformations. Linear interpolation functions are commonly used to perform the spatial integration. It is well-known that the discontinuities in the interpolation function derivatives induce shock-like artifacts known as ‘cell-crossing’ error. These errors compound with volumetric locking errors when used with hydromechanical formulations for porous media, where different velocity fields are used for each phase. The capabilities of higher-order MPM frameworks have not been explored for real-scale geotechnical problems. As such, this paper aims to assess, validate, and further discuss a higher-order B-spline MPM (BS-MPM) framework. First, the BS-MPM framework is verified against the large-strain oedometer consolidation problem. Second, the framework is validated against a real-scale slope failure experiment triggered by pore water pressure recharge. Landslide features that are captured using the higher-order framework are specifically highlighted, and results (e.g., pore water pressure and deformation) are validated with field measurements. A generally convergent numerical solution is observed when using cubic interpolation functions. Third, a footing penetration problem is simulated using the multi-patch BS-MPM. Trends are examined with respect to penetration velocity and variation in hydraulic conductivity. The BS-MPM framework ultimately presents a stabilized numerical solution that captures plausible hydromechanical interaction trends important in geotechnical engineering applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Simple, Fast and Effective Correction for Irradiance Spatial Nonuniformity in Measurement of IVs of Large Area Cells at NREL

The NREL cell measurement lab measures the IV parameters of cells of multiple sizes and configurations. A large contributing factor to errors and uncertainty in Jsc, Imax, Pmax and efficiency can be the irradiance spatial nonuniformity. Correcting for this nonuniformity through its precise and frequent measurement can be very time consuming. This paper explains a simple, fast and effective method based on bicubic interpolation for determining and correcting for spatial nonuniformity and verification of the method's efficacy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Multivariate Dynamic Spatial Factor Model for Speciated Pollutants and Adverse Birth Outcomes

Evidence suggests that exposure to elevated concentrations of air pollution during pregnancy is associated with increased risks of birth defects and other adverse birth outcomes. While current regulations put limits on total PM2.5 concentrations, there are many speciated pollutants within this size class that likely have distinct effects on perinatal health. However, due to correlations between these speciated pollutants, it can be difficult to decipher their effects in a model for birth outcomes. To combat this difficulty, we develop a multivariate spatio-temporal Bayesian model for speciated particulate matter using dynamic spatial factors. These spatial factors can then be interpolated to the pregnant women’s homes to be used to model birth defects. The birth defect model allows the impact of pollutants to vary across different weeks of the pregnancy in order to identify susceptible periods. Here, the proposed methodology is illustrated using pollutant monitoring data from the Environmental Protection Agency and birth records from the National Birth Defect Prevention Study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗