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Results for “state prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of $t\overline{t}$ production in association with additional b -jets in the eμ final state in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents measurements of top-antitop quark pair ($t\overline{t}$) production in association with additional b-jets. The analysis utilises 140 fb -1 of proton–proton collision data collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. Fiducial cross-sections are extracted in a final state featuring one electron and one muon, with at least three or four b-jets. Results are presented at the particle level for both integrated cross-sections and normalised differential cross-sections, as functions of global event properties, jet kinematics, and b-jet pair properties. Observable quantities characterising b-jets originating from the top quark decay and additional b-jets are also measured at the particle level, after correcting for detector effects. The measured integrated fiducial cross sections are consistent with $t\overline{t}$$b\overline{b}$ predictions from various next-to-leading-order matrix element calculations matched to a parton shower within the uncertainties of the predictions. State of-the-art theoretical predictions are compared with the differential measurements; none of them simultaneously describes all observables. Differences between any two predictions are smaller than the measurement uncertainties for most observables.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of a Discrepancy Checker for the Digital Twin in a Supervisory Control System for a Thermal Energy Delivery System

Defined as a virtual representation of a physical object, process, or service, and used to support real-world decision-making, a digital twin (DT) can be utilized to combine classical and novel frameworks in sensors, state predictions, and multi-input/multi-output systems, and to enable optimal autonomous operations. However, a DT’s usefulness largely depends on its ability to adequately mirror the state of its physical counterpart, and this adequacy should be reflected by the level of uncertainty in the underlying simulation models when estimating and predicting quantities of interest (QOIs). Moreover, simulation models in a DT may involve multiple fidelities of representations—ranging from physics-based models to data-driven ones—but classical uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods struggle to handle numerous uncertainty sources, nor are they designed for real-time applications. This work presents a UQ-based discrepancy checking and diagnosis tool for a DT-based supervisory control system applied to a thermal energy delivery system (TEDS) at Idaho National Laboratory. The discrepancy checker was developed using metadata from an automated DT development process, and these metadata included different combinations of physical model forms and model parameters, training data and hyperparameters for surrogate models, and design parameters for supervisory control systems. Next, correlations between the uncertainty results and the metadata were established and then applied to the DT operations. The discrepancy checker evaluates the discrepancies between model predictions from virtual and sensor measurements and backtraces them to the corresponding major sources of uncertainty. The discrepancy checker showed reasonable performance in detecting discrepancies and diagnosing sources of uncertainty in testing scenarios.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Coexistence of Spin States in [Fe(tpy-Ph) 2 ] 2+ Complexes on Au(111) Using DFT Calculations

In this work, we systematically study the electronic structure and stability of spin states of the [Fe-(tpy-ph) 2 ] 2+ molecule in both the gas phase and on a Au(111) substrate using density functional theory + U (DFT+ U ) calculations. We find that the stability of the Fe 2+ ion’s spin states predicted by the computations is significantly influenced by the Hubbard U parameter. In the gas phase, the low-spin (LS, S = 0) state is found to be energetically favorable for U (Fe) ≤ 3 eV, whereas the high-spin (HS, S = 2) state is stabilized for U (Fe) > 3 eV. Interaction with the Au(111) substrate is found to elevate the critical U for the spin-state transition to 3.5 eV. Additionally, we perform L-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) calculations for both HS and LS states. The calculated XAS suggests that the HS state more closely aligns with the experimental observations, indicating the potential coexistence of the HS state as the initial state during the X-ray excitation process. These findings enrich our understanding of spin-state dynamics in [Fe(tpy-Ph) 2 ] 2+ .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Anomalous Photoelectron Angular Distributions in the Photoelectron Spectra of Gd 3 O 3 – : Study of Gd 3 O 2 – and Gd 3 O 3 – Using Photoelectron Spectroscopy and Density Functional Theory Calculations

Anion photoelectron (PE) spectra of lanthanide oxide clusters obtained previously have exhibited anomalous photoelectron angular distributions which were attributed to strong PE–valence electron (PEVE) interactions. Here, to further explore this effect, we have obtained the PE spectra of Gd 3 O 2 – and Gd 3 O 3 – , two clusters that have similarly complex electronic structures but contrasting symmetries. The spectra exhibit manifolds of detachment transitions at similar binding energies in a 0.5 eV window of energy. The electron affinity of Gd 3 O 2 is measured to be 1.29 ± 0.05 eV, and that of Gd 3 O 3 is 1.31 ± 0.05 eV. As seen in previous studies on lanthanide oxide cluster anions in lower than conventional oxidation states, transitions in spectra obtained lower photon energies are more congested than those obtained with higher photon energy, a signature of strong PEVE interactions. While the detachment transitions have predominantly parallel photoelectron angular distributions (PAD), the PAD varies across the manifold of transitions in the PE spectrum of Gd 3 O 3 – in a way that suggests four different subgroups of transitions. Results of calculations on Gd 3 O 2 – suggest kite or V-shape structures with antiferromagnetic coupling between one of the 4f 7 subshells with the two others. Calculations on Gd 3 O 3 – more definitively point to ring structures with a nearly isoenergetic ferromagnetically coupled high spin (24-tet) state and a dectet state in which one of the 4f 7 subshells is antiferromagnetically coupled with the other two. Taking these results as qualitative, we propose that strong mixing between the unperturbed states predicted computationally leads to overlapping transitions with different PADs.

anions↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systematic improvement of redox potential calculation of Fe(III)/Fe(II) complexes using a three-layer micro-solvation model

Electrochemical transformations of metal ions in aqueous media are challenging to model accurately due to the dynamic solvation structure surrounding ions at different charge states. Predictive modeling at the atomistic scale is essential for understanding these solvation architectures but is often computationally prohibitive. In this contribution, we present a simple, fast, and accurate three-layer micro-solvation model to evaluate the redox potential of metal ions in aqueous solutions. Our model, developed and validated for Fe 3+ /Fe 2+ redox potentials, combines the DFT-based geometry optimizations of the octahedral Fe complex with two layers of explicit water molecules to capture solute–solvent interactions and an implicit solvation model to account for bulk solvent effects. This approach yields accurate predictions for Fe 3+ /Fe 2+ redox potentials in water, achieving errors of 0.02 V with ωB97X-V, 0.01 V with ωB97X-D3, 0.04 V with ωB97M-V, and 0.02 V with B3LYP-D3 functionals. We further demonstrate the generality of our model by applying it to additional metal complexes, including the challenging Fe(CN) 6 3−/4− system, where our model successfully achieves close agreement with experimental values, with an error of 0.07 V and an average error of 0.21 V for all five systems. In summary, the presented simple solvation model has broad applicability and potential for enhancing computational efficiency in redox potential predictions across various chemical and industrial processes of metal ions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reflecting on Planning Models: A Challenge for Verification and Validation of Planning Systems

We discuss the opportunities for autonomous sys- tems to perform reflection on their planners by adapting the models used to build plans. We first describe model-based planning systems, a form of automated planning system driven by declarative models of the planning domain. These models include descriptions of the conditions and effects of actions on the state of the world. When planning the activities of cyber-physical systems, the command and data representation of the system must be formally abstracted to the actions and states described in the planning system model. When the execution of a plan either fails or produces unexpected outcomes, the execution trace can be abstracted and compared to the predicted state according to the planning model, producing a list of discrepancies; these discrepancies can then be used to fix the model. This provides part of a reflection capability, namely, a set of well-formed problems with the domain model, the abstractions, or both. The challenge lies in the rest of the reflection capability, namely, a set of techniques for changing the models or the abstractions. We discuss these challenges and describe some of the options for addressing them

Mission Planning↗
NASA NTRS1983

Potential impact of remote sensing data on sea-state analysis and prediction

The severe North Atlantic storm which damaged the ocean liner Queen Elizabeth 2 (QE2) was studied to assess the impact of remotely sensed marine surface wind data obtained by SEASAT-A, on sea state specifications and forecasts. Alternate representations of the surface wind field in the QE2 storm were produced from the SEASAT enhanced data base, and from operational analyses based upon conventional data. The wind fields were used to drive a high resolution spectral ocean surface wave prediction model. Results show that sea state analyses would have been vastly improved during the period of storm formation and explosive development had remote sensing wind data been available in real time. A modest improvement in operational 12 to 24 hour wave forecasts would have followed automatically from the improved initial state specification made possible by the remote sensing data in both numerical and sea state prediction models. Significantly improved 24 to 48 hour wave forecasts require in addition to remote sensing data, refinement in the numerical and physical aspects of weather prediction models.

Cardone, V. J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Indirect M-MRAC for Systems with Time Varying Parameters and Bounded Disturbances

The paper presents a prediction-identification model based adaptive control method for uncertain systems with time varying parameters in the presence of bounded external disturbances. The method guarantees desired tracking performance for the system s state and input signals. This is achieved by feeding back the state prediction error to the identification model. It is shown that the desired closed-loop properties are obtained with fast adaptation when the error feedback gain is selected proportional to the square root of the adaptation rate. The theoretical findings are confirmed via a simulation example.

Stepanyan, Vahram↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparing Pre-Launch Assumptions to In-Flight Navigation Performance of OSIRIS-REx

The Sample Return Capsule (SRC) onboard the NASA Origins, Spectral Inter-pretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx)spacecraft is currently carrying samples of the B-type asteroid Bennu for safe re-turn to Earth at the Utah Test and Training Range on September 24, 2023. These samples were collected during the Touch And Go (TAG) sampling event on October 20, 2020, when the spacecraft contacted the surface for a few seconds at a location less than 1 meter from the target. The unprecedented navigation performance achieved during that event was the culmination of experience gained during two years of cruise and two years of increasingly challenging operation sat Bennu. As we had hoped, the proximity navigation performance at Bennu exceeded pre-launch analysis. This paper will compare the navigation performance through the proximity operation phases to our pre-launch analysis and will quantify how refinements of the small force models governing the spacecraft motion near Bennu considerably improved the down-track state predictions leading up to the successful TAG event. It was evident to the team and to expert peer reviewers during the design phase that exquisite model fidelity and aggressive operational concepts, which challenged and advanced the state of the art for deep space proximity operations, would be required to meet the mission’s objectives. This paper summarizes the superlative achievements of the team in rising to and overcoming these challenges.

Peter G Antresian↗
NASA NTRS2017

CAST Safety Enhancement Research on Airplane State Awareness and Prediction Technologies

Loss of control in flight (LOC-I) is the leading cause of fatal aircraft accidents. A study of LOC accidents and incidents, commissioned by the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) identified a growing trend in loss of Airplane State Awareness (ASA) by the flight crew. This has led to recommended safety enhancements that include flight deck technologies for improving current and predicted energy state awareness. In this talk, we discuss recent CAST motivated efforts to develop new information systems for predicting and assessing the future aircraft energy state and auto-flight configuration. The outputs from these systems can serve multiple purposes, including improved pilot alerting for anticipating and recovering from problematic flight conditions, as well as higher level flight safety assurance for autonomous operations.

Schuet, Stefan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synthesis of inter‐lanthanide sesquioxides LnLn'O 3 by polymeric steric entrapment

Lanthanide oxides are well known in the fields of optical, electronic, and magnetic materials. Even so, there are many application spaces yet to be explored. Previous modeling of inter-lanthanide sesquioxides, in which the compound contains two lanthanide cations, predicts the lowest level energy structure as a function of chemistry, which this work seeks to verify. Three materials of interest, ErLuO 3 , LaLuO 3 , and SmLuO 3 , were synthesized for the first time by the polymeric steric entrapment (PSE) method. X-ray diffraction confirms the stable state predictions of ErLuO 3 and SmLuO 3 forming a bixbyite type structure and LaLuO 3 forming a perovskite type structure. This work demonstrates PSE as a viable and reliable route toward the synthesis of these unique materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2001

Are Droughts in the United States Great Plains Predictable on Seasonal and Longer Time Scales?

The United States Great Plains has experienced numerous episodes of unusually dry conditions lasting anywhere from months to several years, In this presentation, we will examine the predictability of such episodes and the physical mechanisms controlling the variability of the summer climate of the continental United States. The analysis is based on ensembles of multi-year simulations and seasonal hindcasts generated with the NASA Seasonal to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) General Circulation Model.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deviations from the Isobaric Multiplet Mass Equation due to Threshold States

Recent studies have completed the A=16 isospin quintets for states with J π =0 + and 2 + . The dependence of their masses as a function of isospin projection shows evidence for deviations from quadratic behavior indicating isospin violation beyond the expectation from two-body forces. The deviation is most pronounced for the 2 + states. Predictions from the shell model embedded in the continuum (SMEC) allow us to explain that this isospin violation is associated with a modification of the nuclear structure due to the open-quantum-system nature of the proton-rich members of the quintet. In particular, the 0 + and 2 + states in 16 Ne and the 2 + state in 16 F are threshold resonances located just above a proton-decay threshold where s-wave coupling to the continuum is expected. The measured deviations of these threshold states from the quadratic behavior of the remaining members of the multiplets makes it possible to obtain information on the magnitude and the energy dependence of the continuum-coupling energy correction. Finally, continuum coupling is also indicated for the ground state of 8 C, but this time through p-wave coupling

coulomb energies & analogue states↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Planning Satellite Swarm Measurements for Climate Models: Comparing Dynamic Constraint Processing and MILP Methods

We present D-SHIELD, a challenging climate science application to plan coordinated measurements (observations) for a constellation of satellites, each containing two different sensors, each with 61 pointing angle options. The L-band and P-band radar sensors collect data fed into a soil moisture model which tracks and predicts soil moisture across 1.67 million Ground Positions (GP). Soil moisture is an important predictor of wildfires, and then a predictor of floods, landslides and debris flow after a fire. Each measurement covers multiple GP due to the sensor footprint. Each GP has a "model error" which represents the uncertainty of the the soil moisture state prediction. Model error changes at different rates for each GP as the time since last observation increases and after significant events like rain. The planner's goal is to select measurements which maximize soil moisture model improvement (reduce model uncertainty). This problem is combinatorically explosive, involving many degrees of freedom for planner choices. Good domain heuristics can find solutions within a reasonable time for our application needs but cannot be proven optimal. In this paper we compare two different planning approaches to this problem: Dynamic Constraint Processing (DCP) and Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). We match inputs and metrics for both DCP and MILP algorithms to enable a direct apples-to-apples comparison. We demonstrate and discuss the trades between DCP flexibility and performance vs. MILP's promise of provable optimality.

Rich Levinson↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenge Problem 1: Preliminary Results of the Direct Numerical Simulation of Transient Flows

This report presents the first direct numerical simulations (DNS) of transient mixed convection in an idealized downcomer-like channel (Challenge Problem 1, Phase II). Using the GPU-accelerated NekRS solver, we modeled a sudden decay in driving pressure, mimicking loss-of-flow events, and tracked the resulting evolution of Reynolds number, boundary-layer structure, turbulence statistics, and heat-transfer metrics. Key findings include the systematic thickening and eventual asymmetry of velocity and thermal boundary layers under buoyant deceleration; minimal “memory” lag in Reynolds shear stress and TKE profiles when sampled at matching Re, yet clear shifts of peak locations toward the cooled wall; overshoots in transient eddy-viscosity and eddy-diffusivity (and corresponding sub-unity turbulent Prandtl numbers) on the cooled side; and a pronounced transient Nusselt-number enhancement driven by wall-temperature inertia and residual eddy mixing. These effects combined to offer a temporary cooling margin above steady-state predictions during reactor LOF transients. Future work will extend this work to a more complex “Case II” geometry (90° turn + lower plenum) and generate multi-Re/Pr datasets for data-driven turbulence closures.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1992

An expert system for monitoring dynamic aspects of RCS

An expert system (ARC) based on the MIMIC(2) framework is being developed for assistance in monitoring the Space Shuttle reaction control system (RCS) and in training RCS mission controllers. ARC has four components: a hypothesis generator, a model-constructor, a model-simulator and a matcher. The hypothesis generator examines current readings of sensors to generate a set of hypotheses. The model constructor generates models from these hypotheses. The simulator predicts future behaviors of the system. The matcher validates hypotheses by testing the predicted states against real data. The hypothesis generator postulates faults using model-based reasoning (MBR), learned rules from real data, and expert-defined rules. The simulator uses a qualitative QSIM model of the RCS which can handle both nominal modes as well as a variety of fault models. This allows the simulator to simulate the system even when one or more components have degraded. Finally, the matcher is responsible for comparing readings against predictions and calculating confidence in a particular hypothesis.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable discrepancy checker and diagnosis for digital Twin-based supervisory control system

By virtually representing a physical object and process, a digital twin (DT) enables optimal autonomous operations by combining classical and novel frameworks in sensors, state predictions, and multi-input/multi-output systems. A DT’s values depend on how well models estimate quantities of interest and on how uncertainty is handled. Moreover, DTs often combine physics-based and data-driven models with mixed fidelities, where classical uncertainty quantification (UQ) struggles with many sources of uncertainty and real-time constraints. Here, this work presents a UQ-based discrepancy checking and diagnosis tool for a DT-based supervisory control system. The tool is developed using metadata from an automated DT development process to learn correlations between sources of uncertainties and outcomes. During operation, it compares predictions with measurements, attributes discrepancies to dominant sources, and recommends parameter and configuration updates. We verify the workflow on a synthetic temperature-control problem and deploy it on a virtual Thermal Energy Delivery System, reducing mismatch and improving control robustness.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Absolute Hugoniot measurements in low-density plastic foams on the NIKE shock compression platform

The propagation of Mbar-range shock waves in low-density foam materials is of interest to target design in all approaches to inertial confinement fusion, high energy density physics, and laboratory astrophysics. We report absolute Hugoniot measurements for CH 1.72 N 0.086 O 0.37 plastic foams with 73 and 94 mg/cm 3 densities in the 32–107 km/s shock velocity range. The experiments were performed on the shock compression platform developed on the NIKE KrF laser facility at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. NIKE's 4 or 8-ns long flat-top laser pulses drive steady shock waves into foam targets at the ablative pressures of 1–7 Mbar. The propagation of the ablation and shock fronts is tracked continuously in time using streaked side-on monochromatic x-ray imaging radiography. The straight x−t trajectories of the shock and ablation fronts in the recorded streak images confirmed their steadiness. The SESAME tabulated equation of state predictions generally agrees with our Hugoniot data within a 95% confidence band. The experimental uncertainty of the evaluated shock density compression ratios remains large, indicating the need for more experiments and improved theoretical understanding of the strong shock propagation mechanisms in dry foams.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗