Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “state prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

The effects of rotation on initially anisotropic homogeneous flows

Rotation of initially anisotropic homogeneous flows is studied using a model spectral tensor. It is shown that the anisotropy changes because of the influence of rotation through phase scrambling. Phase scrambling causes the Reynolds stresses to develop with damped oscillations. The final Reynolds stress anisotropy is found to be proportional to the initial structural tensor anisotropy. Closure models for the rapid pressure strain terms should reflect this change in anisotropy, and should drive the anisotropy to reach its final predicted state. Finally, it is shown that long-time integration using direct numerical simulations should be treated with care because phase scrambling effects on a discrete wave space can cause loss of resolution when time becomes large.

Mansour, Nagi N.↗

Lunar gravitational field estimation and the effects of mismodeling upon lunar satellite orbit prediction

Lunar spherical harmonic gravity coefficients are estimated from simulated observations of a near-circular low altitude polar orbiter disturbed by lunar mascons. Lunar gravity sensing missions using earth-based nearside observations with and without satellite-based far-side observations are simulated and least squares maximum likelihood estimates are developed for spherical harmonic expansion fit models. Simulations and parameter estimations are performed by a modified version of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory's Planetary Ephemeris Program. Two different lunar spacecraft mission phases are simulated to evaluate the estimated fit models. Results for predicting state covariances one orbit ahead are presented along with the state errors resulting from the mismodeled gravity field. The position errors from planning a lunar landing maneuver with a mismodeled gravity field are also presented. These simulations clearly demonstrate the need to include observations of satellite motion over the far side in estimating the lunar gravity field. The simulations also illustrate that the eighth degree and order expansions used in the simulated fits were unable to adequately model lunar mascons.

Davis, John H.↗

Overview of Transonic to Hypersonic Stage Separation Tool Development for Multi-Stage-to-Orbit Concepts

An overview of research efforts at NASA in support of the stage separation and ascent aerothermodynamics research program is presented. The objective of this work is to develop a synergistic suite of experimental, computational, and engineering tools and methods to apply to vehicle separation across the transonic to hypersonic speed regimes. Proximity testing of a generic bimese wing-body configuration is on-going in the transonic (Mach numbers 0.6, 1.05, and 1.1), supersonic (Mach numbers 2.3, 3.0, and 4.5) and hypersonic (Mach numbers 6 and 10) speed regimes in four wind tunnel facilities at the NASA Langley Research Center. An overset grid, Navier-Stokes flow solver has been enhanced and demonstrated on a matrix of proximity cases and on a dynamic separation simulation of the bimese configuration. Steady-state predictions with this solver were in excellent agreement with wind tunnel data at Mach 3 as were predictions via a Cartesian-grid Euler solver. Experimental and computational data have been used to evaluate multi-body enhancements to the widely-used Aerodynamic Preliminary Analysis System, an engineering methodology, and to develop a new software package, SepSim, for the simulation and visualization of vehicle motions in a stage separation scenario. Web-based software will be used for archiving information generated from this research program into a database accessible to the user community. Thus, a framework has been established to study stage separation problems using coordinated experimental, computational, and engineering tools.

Murphy, Kelly J.↗

Orbit Determination Covariance Analyses for the Parker Solar Probe Mission

This paper details pre-launch navigation covariance analyses for the Parker Solar Probe mission. Baseline models and error assumptions are outlined. The results demonstrate how navigation will satisfy requirements and are used to define operational plans. A few sensitivities are identified and the accompanying investigations are described. Predicted state uncertainty results show that most requirements are met with substantial margin. Moreover, navigation sensitivities may be accommodated operationally and this has been incorporated into project planning. Detailed results are presented only for select launch dates, however twenty unique trajectories (one per launch opportunity) have been assessed.

Jones, Drew Ryan↗

Covariance Realism Is Not Enough

A great deal of effort has been put into improving the practice of space situational awareness such that covariance data associated with predicted close approaches is more “realistic.” However, “realistic” usually has meant “larger” and this presents a problem. In many cases, there exist multiple sources for predictive ephemerides, which may be fused to produce predictive states with smaller associated covariances. Ancillary to the fusion computation is the capability to assess consistency of the estimates. If actionable covariance information becomes available, interval estimates for the miss distance provide a more informative alternative to collision probability for risk assessment.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

InSight orbit determination

The InSight mission relied on accurate deep-space navigation for a successful Mars landing on November 26, 2018. In this paper, we discuss the role of the cruise Orbit Determination team, whose responsibilities included determining the spacecraft state, predicting the future trajectory, and quantifying the uncertainty associated with those estimates. In particular, we will focus on spacecraft dynamic modeling, small forces due to attitude control, radiometric tracking data, filter strategies, uncertainty quantification, and responses to unexpected flight situations. We will also provide analysis of reconstructed maneuvers, small forces, and delivery accuracy at Mars arrival.

Seubert, Jill↗

EARLY INFORMATION PARAMETER-SET ANALYSIS FOR SATELLITE CLOSE APPROACHES USING MACHINE LEARNING

In spaceflight navigation applications, understanding and accurately applying orbital mechanics by leveraging force models for trajectory predictions will always remain an important aspect in space mission design and operations. In the process of capturing the dynamics and perturbations in the space environment, the force models are not all encompassing in that these models are subject to errors, commonly referred to as process noise. Therefore, in predicting state vectors of space objects such as spacecraft or debris over long periods of time, these errors in the process noise tend to grow over time.

machine learning↗

Development of Improved Thermal Analysis Capabilities at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has been developing a framework of additional analysis capabilities to aid in the verification, development, and execution of thermal models using the OpenTD Application Programming Interface (API). This paper provides a brief overview of the data structures, properties, methods, and relationships between the objects accessible through the current API and describes some of the algorithms necessary to implement the desired functions at GSFC. Some example code snippets are also provided to aid potential users in the development of their own utilities. Following the overview are descriptions and algorithm methodologies of the new capabilities added to the GSFC framework, including: a new PI heater/controller approach for improved steady state predictions, selective copying of symbol over-rides from one source CaseSet to destination CaseSet(s), comparison of submodel object counts between a source and destination model to verify model integration, comparison of thermo-optical and thermo-physical properties between models, and improved display of extracted thermo-optical and thermo-physical properties for documentation.

ThermalDesktop↗

Development of Improved Thermal Analysis Capabilities at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has been developing a framework of additional analysis capabilities to aid in the verification, development, and execution of thermal models using the OpenTD Application Programming Interface (API). This paper provides a brief overview of the data structures, properties, methods, and relationships between the objects accessible through the current API and describes some of the algorithms necessary to implement the desired functions at GSFC. Some example code snippets are also provided to aid potential users in the development of their own utilities. Following the overview are descriptions and algorithm methodologies of the new capabilities added to the GSFC framework, including: a new PI heater/controller approach for improved steady state predictions, selective copying of symbol over-rides from one source CaseSet to destination CaseSet(s), comparison of submodel object counts between a source and destination model to verify model integration, comparison of thermo-optical and thermo-physical properties between models, and improved display of extracted thermo-optical and thermo-physical properties for documentation.

ThermalDesktop, API, v6.2, OpenTD↗

Modeling of Particle Transport and Impact in Transient, Multiphase Oxidizer-Rich Environments Using Computational Fluid Dynamics and Lagrangian Particle Tracking

Particle impacts from foreign object debris (FOD) in an oxidizer-rich environment have been shown to be a credible and significant risk for ignition and failure of components and vehicles. The risk of particle ignition is dependent on many factors, including particle impact velocity/energy and fluid composition (i.e. fluid phase, species presence, and state). Prediction of particle transport and particle impacts in relevant environments, including transient, multiphase flows, is important for assessing the risk and avoiding repeated expensive system level tests. The capability to model both the fluid dynamics and particle transport in complex three-dimensional geometries and multiphase environments has been developed at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in the propulsion fluid dynamic branch (ER42) by utilizing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and Lagrangian particle tracking. Using CFD tools, including density-based Loci/CHEM with a cavitation model and pressure-based Loci/STREAM with a volume of fluids model, MSFC/ER42 has provided particle impact predictions to multiple projects for oxidizer compatibility assessments. Simulations of transient, multiphase environments such as liquid slugs flowing through tubing and cavitating flow in valves have been completed alongside one-way coupled Lagrangian particle tracking to predict particle impacts.

M.V. Fischels↗

A Modular Conjugate Heat Transfer Optimization Framework for Thermal Management of Electric Aircraft

Conjugate heat transfer (CHT) analysis and optimization is a powerful method for improving thermal management, as it simultaneously resolves the temperature distribution in both fluid and solid domains. This paper presents a modular, discrete adjoint-based CHT optimization capability integrated within the OpenMDAO/MPhys framework. A unique feature of the proposed framework is its flexibility to extend to multidisciplinary optimization, including aero-structural-thermal applications. The fluid domain is modeled using a finite-volume Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solver, and the solid domain with a conduction heat transfer solver. A mixed Neumann-Dirichlet boundary condition is developed to enable full submersion of the solid geometry within the fluid domain, while ensuring consistent temperature and heat flux coupling at the CHT interface. Gradient-based optimization is performed; the gradients are efficiently computed using the discrete adjoint solvers implemented in DAFoam. To demonstrate the method, this paper considers two cases related to electric aircraft thermal management: a U-bend heat exchanger and an actively cooled battery pack. The U-bend case aims to minimize pressure loss while maximizing heat flux by changing the pipe geometry. The optimized design reduces pressure loss by 52.7% and increases total heat flux by 2.3%. In the battery pack case, a 3-by-3 cell configuration is cooled by ambient airflow, with constant heat generation prescribed in the cells. The battery casing shape serves as the design variable, and the objective function is a weighted sum of pressure loss and pack weight, subject to a maximum temperature constraint. The optimized design achieves a 44.6% reduction in pressure loss and a 1.5% reduction in weight, while satisfying the thermal constraint. To ensure the reliability of the optimized designs, this study validates coarse-mesh, steady-state predictions against fine-mesh unsteady simulations, demonstrating consistency within acceptable errors. This work demonstrates the potential of the developed framework to enable rapid, high-fidelity design of thermal management systems for electric aircraft.

heat transfer↗

Increasing Pilot’s Understanding of Future Automation State – an Evaluation of an Automation State and Trajectory Prediction System

A pilot in the loop flight simulation study was conducted at NASA Langley Research Center to evaluate a trajectory prediction system. The trajectory prediction system computes a five-minute prediction of the lateral and vertical path of the aircraft given the current and intent state of the automation. The prediction is shown as a graphical representation so the pilots can form an accurate mental model of the future state. Otherwise, many automation changes and triggers are hidden from the flight crew or need to be consolidated to understand if a change will occur and the exact timing of the change. Varying dynamic conditions like deceleration can obscure the future trajectory and the ability to meet constraints, especially in the vertical dimension. Current flight deck indications of flight path assume constant conditions and do not adequately support the flight crew to make correct judgments regarding constraints. The study was conducted using ten commercial airline crews from multiple airlines, paired by airline to minimize procedural effects. Scenarios spanned a range of conditions that provided evaluation in a realistic environment with complex traffic and weather conditions. In particular, scenarios probed automation state and loss of state awareness. The technology was evaluated and contrasted with current state-of-the-art flight deck capabilities modeled from the Boeing 787. Objective and subjective data were collected from aircraft parameters, questionnaires, audio/video recordings, head/eye tracking data, and observations. This paper details findings about the trajectory prediction system including recommendations about further study.

Etherington, Timothy J.↗

Graphical Method for Predicting Steady-State Temperature

Temperature that heated or cooled passive system will reach is predicted from temperature-versus-time curves. Intersection of two lines in graphical construction gives asymptotic temperature of system. Developed for analyzing thermal anomalies during flights of Space Shuttle, graphical method also applicable to everyday heating and cooling problems.

Case, Robert L., Jr.↗

Early Information Parameter-Set Analysis for Satellite Close Approaches using Machine Learning

Understanding orbital mechanics is essential in space flight and navigation applications, and leveraging modern force models for flight path projection remains an important aspect in space mission design and operation. However, force models do not capture all the dynamics or perturbations in the space environment and thus are subject to errors in predicting the state vectors. The further out the predicted miss distance between spacecraft is from the time of closest approach (TCA), the larger the propagated errors in the predicted miss distance at TCA is. The dependency on these force models for spacecraft flight state prediction calls for a more reliable method that can quantify, or even reduce, these propagated errors. With recent advances in the field artificial intelligence, specifically in machine and deep learning algorithms, a model that implements these approaches can improve on the modern force model approach. The goal for this work is to provide an early-information decision-making threshold, in order to prioritize risk assessment implementation, given the ongoing increase of space objects. In analyzing the relationship of several parameters from conjunction data messages(CDMs) and solar information, early information becomes viable in miss distance prediction with unsupervised learning techniques, which learn the parameters that are linked together with miss distance and probability of collision (Pc) variables. Another approach implemented for identifying relationships within CDMs is supervised learning, in which a shallow neural network binary classifier learns to distinguish events with Pc values¡108. These parameters detected in the unsupervised process are then applied to a regression neural network, which predicts the miss distance at TCA for a specific event within a given uncertainty bound. For the regression neural network, a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is implemented, which yields memory about each time step in an event. Using an LSTM network, the model learns to predict miss distance within 0.2km of the value measured at TCA. Although there is a limited amount of "close miss" data to train a network, the network learns to associate parameters, like large energy dissipation rates with the secondary object, with an elevated Pc

Brianna I. Robertson↗

Emerging Technologies for Airplane State Awareness and Prediction

Loss of control in flight (LOC-I) is consistently the leading cause of fatal aircraft accidents. A study of LOC accidents and incidents, commissioned by the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) identified a growing trend in loss of Airplane State Awareness (ASA) by the flight crew. This has led to recommended safety enhancements that include flight deck technologies with the potential of enhancing flight crew awareness of airplane energy state. The goal of this research is to develop and evaluate technologies that predict and assess the future aircraft energy state and auto-flight configuration, and provide appropriate alerting to anticipated problematic auto-flight inputs, with the aim of enhancing pilots situational awareness.

Aircraft Safety↗

Use of Landsat data to predict the trophic state of Minnesota lakes

Near-concurrent Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and ground data were obtained for 60 lakes distributed in two Landsat scene areas. The ground data included measurement of secchi disk depth, chlorophyll-a, total phosphorous, turbidity, color, and total nitrogen, as well as Carlson Trophic State Index (TSI) values derived from the first three parameters. The Landsat data best correlated with the TSI values. Prediction models were developed to classify some 100 'test' lakes appearing in the two analysis scenes on the basis of TSI estimates. Clouds, wind, poor image data, small lake size, and shallow lake depth caused some problems in lake TSI prediction. Overall, however, the Landsat-predicted TSI estimates were judged to be very reliable for the secchi-derived TSI estimation, moderately reliable for prediction of the chlorophyll-a TSI, and unreliable for the phosphorous value. Numerous Landsat data extraction procedures were compared, and the success of the Landsat TSI prediction models was a strong function of the procedure employed.

Lillesand, T. M.↗

Earthquake prediction

The state of the art in earthquake prediction is discussed. Short-term prediction based on seismic precursors, changes in the ratio of compressional velocity to shear velocity, tilt and strain precursors, electromagnetic precursors, hydrologic phenomena, chemical monitors, and animal behavior is examined. Seismic hazard assessment is addressed, and the applications of dynamical systems to earthquake prediction are discussed.

Turcotte, Donald L.↗

Prediction of Cognitive States During Flight Simulation Using Multimodal Psychophysiological Sensing

The Commercial Aviation Safety Team found the majority of recent international commercial aviation accidents attributable to loss of control inflight involved flight crew loss of airplane state awareness (ASA), and distraction was involved in all of them. Research on attention-related human performance limiting states (AHPLS) such as channelized attention, diverted attention, startle/surprise, and confirmation bias, has been recommended in a Safety Enhancement (SE) entitled "Training for Attention Management." To accomplish the detection of such cognitive and psychophysiological states, a broad suite of sensors was implemented to simultaneously measure their physiological markers during a high fidelity flight simulation human subject study. Twenty-four pilot participants were asked to wear the sensors while they performed benchmark tasks and motion-based flight scenarios designed to induce AHPLS. Pattern classification was employed to predict the occurrence of AHPLS during flight simulation also designed to induce those states. Classifier training data were collected during performance of the benchmark tasks. Multimodal classification was performed, using pre-processed electroencephalography, galvanic skin response, electrocardiogram, and respiration signals as input features. A combination of one, some or all modalities were used. Extreme gradient boosting, random forest and two support vector machine classifiers were implemented. The best accuracy for each modality-classifier combination is reported. Results using a select set of features and using the full set of available features are presented. Further, results are presented for training one classifier with the combined features and for training multiple classifiers with features from each modality separately. Using the select set of features and combined training, multistate prediction accuracy averaged 0.64 +/- 0.14 across thirteen participants and was significantly higher than that for the separate training case. These results support the goal of demonstrating simultaneous real-time classification of multiple states using multiple sensing modalities in high fidelity flight simulators. This detection is intended to support and inform training methods under development to mitigate the loss of ASA and thus reduce accidents and incidents.

Harrivel, Angela R.↗