Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “statistical fluctuations”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Fermilab Muon $g - 2$ experiment: Current status

The Muon $g$ - 2 experiment at Fermilab (E989) is currently measuring the muon magnetic anomaly with a goal precision of 140 part per billion, which will be a fourfold precision improvement over the current best measurement by the previous Muon $g$ -2 experiment at the Brookhaven Laboratory (BNL). The BNL-measured value of the muon magnetic anomaly and the corresponding Standard Model (SM) best estimate differ by more than three standard deviation which inspired the current measurement as well as a theoretical drive for a significantly more precise calculation of the muon magnetic anomaly to rule out (or establish) statistical fluctuation as the origin of such a huge discrepancy. Stable central values along with 4-fold precision improvements in both theoretical (SM) and experimental fronts, would imply a ~ 7σ discrepancy and that will be a clear hint of the physics beyond the Standard Model. Such an unprecedented precision demands state-of-the-art technological improvements in all involved components to keep the systematic uncertainty below 70 ppb. This paper reports the current status of the E989 experiment after two years of data acquisition.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Conditional quantum plasmonic sensing

The possibility of using weak optical signals to perform sensing of delicate samples constitutes one of the main goals of quantum photonic sensing. Furthermore, the nanoscale confinement of electromagnetic near fields in photonic platforms through surface plasmon polaritons has motivated the development of highly sensitive quantum plasmonic sensors. Despite the enormous potential of plasmonic platforms for sensing, this class of sensors is ultimately limited by the quantum statistical fluctuations of surface plasmons. Indeed, the fluctuations of the electromagnetic field severely limit the performance of quantum plasmonic sensing platforms in which delicate samples are characterized using weak near-field signals. Furthermore, the inherent losses associated with plasmonic fields levy additional constraints that challenge the realization of sensitivities beyond the shot-noise limit. Here, we introduce a protocol for quantum plasmonic sensing based on the conditional detection of plasmons. We demonstrate that the conditional detection of plasmonic fields, via plasmon subtraction, provides a new degree of freedom to control quantum fluctuations of plasmonic fields. This mechanism enables improvement of the signal-to-noise ratio of photonic sensors relying on plasmonic signals that are comparable to their associated field fluctuations. Consequently, the possibility of using weak plasmonic signals to sense delicate samples, while preserving the sample properties, has important implications for molecule sensing, and chemical detection.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

False Indications of Dose-Response Nonlinearity in Large Epidemiologic Cancer Radiation Cohort Studies; A Simulation Exercise

This study explores the likely prevalence of false indications of dose-response nonlinearity in large epidemiologic cancer radiation cohort studies (A-bomb survivors, INWORKS, Techa River). Reasons: Increasing numbers of tests of nonlinearity are being made in studies. Hypothesized nonlinear dose-response models have been justified to policy makers by analyses that rely in part on isolated findings that could be statistical fluctuations. After removing dose nonlinearity (linearization) by adjusting person-years of observation at each dose category, indications of nonlinearity, necessarily false, were counted in 5,000 randomized replications of six datasets. The average frequency of any false positive for five indicators of nonlinearity tested against a linear null was roughly 25% in Monte Carlo simulations per study, consistent with binomial calculations, increasing to ~50% within 6 studies assessed. Comparable frequencies were found using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) for model selection or multi-model averaging. False above-zero threshold doses were found more than 50% of the time, averaging to 0.05 Gy, consistent with findings in the 6 studies. Such bias, uncorrected, could distort meta-analyses of multiple studies, because meta-analyses can incorporate high P value findings. AIC-based correction for the extra threshold parameter lowered these false occurrences to 8 to 19%. Given the simulation rates, the possibility of false positives might be noted when isolated findings of nonlinearity are discussed in a regulatory context. When reporting a threshold dose with a P value > 0.05, it would be informative to note the expected high false prevalence rate due to bias.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Analysis of Fermilab’s Safety Data

In the past ten months, since the Safety and Security pauses of May 31$^{st}$ and June 29$^{th}$ of 2023, there has been an increase in the number of Total Recordable Counts to the point that there are already more incidents in ten months that at any given year in the past decade. The purpose of this study is to try to determine if this increase could be explained as a statistical fluctuation. We will show that it is very unlikely (essentially 4$\sigma$ unlikely) that the increase is a fluctuation, and therefore there must be a cause. The Safety and Security pauses of the past May and June, and many events thereafter, have been impactful events at Fermilab, so we should feel an obligation to assess their benefit, or detriment, to the safety of our people.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prediction and compression of lattice QCD data using machine learning algorithms on quantum annealer

We present regression and compression algorithms for lattice QCD data utilizing the efficient binary optimization ability of quantum annealers. In the regression algorithm, we encode the correlation between the input and output variables into a sparse coding machine learning algorithm. The trained correlation pattern is used to predict lattice QCD observables of unseen lattice configurations from other observables measured on the lattice. In the compression algorithm, we define a mapping from lattice QCD data of floating-point numbers to the binary coefficients that closely reconstruct the input data from a set of basis vectors. Since the reconstruction is not exact, the mapping defines a lossy compression, but, a reasonably small number of binary coefficients are able to reconstruct the input vector of lattice QCD data with the reconstruction error much smaller than the statistical fluctuation. In both applications, we use D-Wave quantum annealers to solve the NP-hard binary optimization problems of the machine learning algorithms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of the Polarization Beam Response of SPT-3G Using Point Sources

Precise measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization require rigorous control of instrumental systematics. For the South Pole Telescope's third-generation camera (SPT-3G), which observes in three bands centered near 95, 150, and 220 GHz, accurate beam characterization is critical for interpreting the polarized mm-wave sky. We present direct measurements of SPT-3G's polarized beam response from observations of 100 bright extragalactic point sources. Previous SPT-3G power spectrum analyses introduced a phenomenological parameter, $β_{\rm pol}$, to describe the polarization preserved in beam sidelobes, and found evidence for significant depolarization from the requirement of inter-frequency polarization power spectrum consistency. Our direct measurements yield $β_{\rm pol}=0.89\pm0.10$ at 95 GHz, $1.08\pm0.10$ at 150 GHz, and $0.90\pm0.22$ at 220 GHz, indicating minimal sidelobe depolarization. We validate these results with systematic tests of posterior sampling versus bootstrap resampling, real-space versus Fourier-space analysis, temperature-to-polarization leakage handling, covariance determination, and source selection. Compared to values inferred from previous cosmological analyses, our results differ by an effective $1.3σ$. This apparent discrepancy is model dependent, because the point source analysis derives much of its $β_{\rm pol}$ constraining power from higher multipoles than the power spectrum analysis. These measurements therefore admit three explanations for the frequency-dependent residuals observed in the power spectrum analysis: a statistical fluctuation, the need for more sophisticated polarized beam models, or systematics other than beam depolarization.

de Haan, T. [KEK, Tsukuba]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Large Global Significances with a New Monte Carlo Extrapolation Method

In particle physics, it is needed to evaluate the possibility that excesses of events in mass spectra are due to statistical fluctuations as quantified by the standards of local and global significances. Without prior knowledge of a particle’s mass, it is especially critical to estimate its global significance. The usual approach is to count the number of times a significance limit is exceeded in a collection of simulated Monte Carlo (MC) “toy experiments”. To demonstrate this conventional method for global significance, we performed simulation studies according to a recent Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) result to show its effectiveness. However, this counting method is not practical for computing large global significances. To address this problem, we developed a new “extrapolation” method to evaluate the global significance. We compared the global significance estimated by our new method with that of the conventional approach, and verified its feasibility and effectiveness. This method is also applicable for cases where only small toy MC samples are available. In this approach, the significance is calculated based on p-values, assuming symmetrical Gaussian distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resolved Dwarf Galaxy Searches within ~5 Mpc with the Vera Rubin Observatory and Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam*

We present a preview of the faint dwarf galaxy discoveries that will be possible with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam in the next decade. In this work, we combine deep ground-based images from the Panoramic Imaging Survey of Centaurus and Sculptor (PISCeS) and extensive image simulations to investigate the recovery of faint, resolved dwarf galaxies in the Local Volume with a matched-filter technique. We adopt three fiducial distances - 1.5, 3.5, 5 Mpc, and quantitatively evaluate the effects on dwarf detection of varied stellar backgrounds, ellipticity, and Milky Way foreground contamination and extinction. We show that our matched-filter method is powerful for identifying both compact and extended systems, and near-future surveys will be able to probe at least ~4.5 mag below the tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) for a distance of up to 1.5 Mpc, and ~2 mag below the TRGB at 5 Mpc. This will push the discovery frontier for resolved dwarf galaxies to fainter magnitudes, lower surface brightnesses, and larger distances. Our simulations show the secure census of dwarf galaxies down to $M_{V}$$\approx$-5, -7, -8, will be soon within reach, out to 1.5 Mpc, 3.5 Mpc, and 5 Mpc, respectively, allowing us to quantify the statistical fluctuations in satellite abundances around hosts, and parse environmental effects as a function of host properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intermittency and Dissipative Structures Arising from Relativistic Magnetized Turbulence

Abstract Kinetic simulations of relativistic turbulence have significantly advanced our understanding of turbulent particle acceleration. Recent progress has highlighted the need for an updated acceleration theory that can account for particle acceleration within the plasma’s coherent structures. Here, we investigate how intermittency modeling connects statistical fluctuations in turbulence to regions of high-energy dissipation. This connection is established by employing a generalized She–Leveque model to characterize the exponents ζ p for the structure functions S p ∝ l ζ p . The fitting of the scaling exponents provides us with a measure of the codimension of the dissipative structures, for which we subsequently determine the filling fraction. We perform our analysis for a range of magnetizations σ and relative fluctuation amplitudes δ B 0 / B 0 . We find that increasing values of σ and δ B 0 / B 0 allow the turbulent cascade to break sheetlike structures into smaller regions of dissipation that resemble chains of flux ropes. However, as their dissipation measure increases, the dissipative regions become less volume filling. With this work, we aim to inform future turbulent acceleration theories that incorporate particle energization from interactions with coherent structures within relativistic turbulence.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimisation of the Search for CP-symmetry Violation at the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation long baseline experiment, which will be situated in South Dakota. Its detectors will utilise liquid-argon time projection chamber technology, which is able to capture neutrino interactions with an incredible spatial and calorimetric resolution. With what will become the world’s most intense neutrino beam, a highly capable near detector, and four (10kt fducial mass) far detector modules, DUNE will be able to achieve an ambitious physics programme. Most notably, DUNE will determine whether charge-parity symmetry is broken in neutrino oscillations - a finding that would have significant implications for the understanding of the matter-antimatter asymmetry in our Universe.This thesis presents the optimisation of a CP-violation analysis at DUNE using thePandora pattern-recognition software. The analysis assumes a 3.5 year exposure (1.36 × 1023 protons on target) to a neutrino and an antineutrino beam (7 year total). Only the predicted data of the far detector modules is used; near detector samples are not included. The initial sensitivity to CP-violation is found to be 3.8σ+0.9σ−1.1σ in an estimate that includes oscillation parameter uncertainties, systematic uncertainties and statistical fluctuations, and assumes a normal-ordering of the neutrino mass hierarchy. The performance of the Pandora event reconstruction is linked to that of the analysis, which is found to be limited by the reconstruction of the initial track-like region of electrons and photons. The ShowerRefinement algorithm is developed in response to this and its implementation into the analysis workflow results in an improved sensitivity to CP-violation of 4.6σ+0.9σ−1.0σ. With a perfected neutrino interaction vertex placement, this is further increased to 5.1σ+1.0σ−1.1σ.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long-term stability-degradation analysis of DUNE SiPMs in Liquid Nitrogen

We developed a cryogenic photon readout system to monitor arrays of DUNE SiPMs operating at various over-voltages in liquid nitrogen (LN2) for over three months. Photoelectron signals were read out simultaneously via weak capacitive coupling to the micro-FEMB, a 32-channel charge sensitive readout board designed for 77 K to 300 K operation in liquid argon time projection chambers (LAr-TPCs). A waveform snippet acquisition scheme was implemented to capture waveform signals whenever they exceeded a predetermined trigger level; consequently, empty waveforms were discarded. Selected SiPM parameters were monitored to detect any deviations beyond statistical fluctuations. While some parameters exhibited ~1σ variations over the 3-month test period, there was no evidence of drift being enhanced when operating at 4 V or 5 V compared to a 3 V over-voltage. However, a discernible PDE drop was observed across all channels, which warrants further investigation. In addition, we demonstrated that our system can simultaneously read out single photons from a selected group of SiPMs at room temperature.

Tsang, Thomas [Brookhaven]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Avalanche statistics of fluctuation-induced fluxes from the SLPM and the W7-AS stellarator

Measurements of fluctuating floating potentials and ion saturation currents at different radial locations in the Santander Linear Plasma Machine (Castellanos et al 2005 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion47 2067) and at the edge of the W7-AS stellarator by means of radially movable Langmuir probes allow to infer the corresponding fluctuation-induced radial flux temporal series. Avalanche-like transport events are identified in the time series and statistically characterized in terms of avalanche size/duration/quiet-time distributions and size-duration scaling relations. Transport is diffusive in the inner and intermediate radial region of the SLPM r < r tr ≈ 2.6 cm, undergoing a transition at r tr , becoming non-diffusive in the outermost region of the device, r > r tr . Here, the results obtained at the edge of the W7-AS stellarator are similar to those found in SLPM for r > r tr , i.e. consistent with what would be expected for scale-free, self-similar plasma transport dynamics near a critical state.

Avalanches↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistics of internal stress fluctuations in dislocated crystals and relevance to density-based dislocation dynamics models

A statistical analysis of internal stress fluctuations, defined as the difference between the local mean stress and stress on dislocations, is presented for deforming crystals with 3D discrete dislocation systems. Dislocation realizations are generated using dislocation dynamics simulations and the associated stress field is computed as a superposition of a regularized stress field of dislocation lines within the domain of the solution and a complementary stress field computed via a finite-element boundary value problem. The internal stress fluctuations of interest are defined by an ensemble of the difference between the stress on dislocation lines and the local mean field stress in the crystal. The latter is established in a piecewise fashion over small voxels in the crystal thus allowing the difference between the local average stress and stress on segments to be easily estimated. The results show that the Schmid stress (resolved shear stress) and Escaig stress fluctuations on various slip systems sampled over a random set of points follow a Cauchy (Lorentz) distribution at all strain levels, with the amplitude and width of the distribution being dependent on the strain. Finally, the implications of the Schmid and Escaig internal stress fluctuations are discussed from the points of view of dislocation cross-slip and the dislocation motion in continuum dislocation dynamics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Symmetry-breaking-induced rare fluctuations in a time-delay dynamic system

Inspired by the experimental and numerical findings, we study the dynamic instabilities of two coupled nonlinear delay differential equations that are used to describe the coherent oscillations between the top and bottom boundary layers in turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection. By introducing two sensitivity parameters for the instabilities of the top and bottom boundary layers, we find three different types of solutions, namely in-phase single-period oscillations, multi-period oscillations and chaos. The chaos solution contains rare but large amplitude fluctuations. The statistical properties of these fluctuations are consistent with those observed in the experiment for the massive eruption of thermal plumes, which causes random reversals of the large-scale circulation in turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection. Finally, our study thus provides new insights into the origin of rare massive eruptions and sudden changes of large-scale flow pattern that are often observed in convection systems of geophysical and astrophysical scales.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Outlier classification using autoencoders: application for fluctuation driven flows in fusion plasmas

Understanding the statistics of fluctuation driven flows in the boundary layer of magnetically confined plasmas is desired to accurately model the lifetime of the vacuum vessel components. Mirror Langmuir probes (MLPs) are a novel diagnostic that uniquely allow us to sample the plasma parameters on a time scale shorter than the characteristic time scale of their fluctuations. Sudden large-amplitude fluctuations in the plasma degrade the precision and accuracy of the plasma parameters reported by MLPs for cases in which the probe bias range is of insufficient amplitude. While some data samples can readily be classified as valid and invalid, we find that such a classification may be ambiguous for up to 40% of data sampled for the plasma parameters and bias voltages considered in this study. In this contribution, we employ an autoencoder (AE) to learn a low-dimensional representation of valid data samples. By definition, the coordinates in this space are the features that mostly characterize valid data. Ambiguous data samples are classified in this space using standard classifiers for vectorial data. In this way, we avoid defining complicated threshold rules to identify outliers, which require strong assumptions and introduce biases in the analysis. By removing the outliers that are identified in the latent low-dimensional space of the AE, we find that the average conductive and convective radial heat fluxes are between approximately 5% and 15% lower as when removing outliers identified by threshold values. For contributions to the radial heat flux due to triple correlations, the difference is up to 40%.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Statistical analysis of the fluctuations of an initial-state model with independently distributed hot spots

Abstract We determine the uncorrelated modes that characterize the fluctuations in a semi-realistic model for the initial state of high-energy nuclear collisions, consisting of hot spots whose positions are distributed independently. Varying the number of hot spots, their size, and the weights with which they contribute to the initial state, we find that the parameter that has the largest influence on the relative importance of the fluctuation modes is the source size, with more extended hot spots leading to a more marked predominance of the principal modes.

Borghini, Nicolas↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modified Fermi’s golden rule rate expressions

Fermi’s golden rule (FGR) serves as the basis for many expressions of spectroscopic observables and quantum transition rates. The utility of FGR has been demonstrated through decades of experimental confirmation. However, there still remain important cases where the evaluation of a FGR rate is ambiguous or ill-defined. Examples are cases where the rate has divergent terms due to the sparsity in the density of final states or time dependent fluctuations of system Hamiltonians. Strictly speaking, assumptions of FGR are no longer valid for such cases. However, it is still possible to define modified FGR rate expressions that are useful as effective rates. The resulting modified FGR rate expressions resolve a long standing ambiguity often encountered in using FGR and offer more reliable ways to model general rate processes. Finally, simple model calculations illustrate the utility and implications of new rate expressions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forces from Stochastic Density Functional Theory under Nonorthogonal Atom-Centered Basis Sets

We develop a formalism for calculating forces on the nuclei within the linear-scaling stochastic density functional theory (sDFT) in a nonorthogonal atom-centered basis set representation (Fabian et al. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Comput. Mol. Sci. 2019, 9, e1412, 10.1002/wcms.1412) and apply it to the Tryptophan Zipper 2 (Trp-zip2) peptide solvated in water. We use an embedded-fragment approach to reduce the statistical errors (fluctuation and systematic bias), where the entire peptide is the main fragment and the remaining 425 water molecules are grouped into small fragments. We analyze the magnitude of the statistical errors in the forces and find that the systematic bias is of the order of 0.065 eV/Å (~1.2 × 10 -3 E h / a 0 ) when 120 stochastic orbitals are used, independently of system size. This magnitude of bias is sufficiently small to ensure that the bond lengths estimated by stochastic DFT (within a Langevin molecular dynamics simulation) will deviate by less than 1% from those predicted by a deterministic calculation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗