Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “stratospheric dynamics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of the latitude of the westerly jet stream to climate forcing

The latitude of the westerly jet stream is influenced by a variety of climate forcings. Their effects often manifest as a tug-of-war between tropical forcing, characterized by tropical upper-tropospheric warming, and polar forcing, with a signature of Antarctic stratospheric cooling or Arctic amplification. Here we present a unified forcing-feedback frame work relating different climate forcings to their forced jet changes, in which the interactions between the westerly jet and synoptic storms are synthesized by a zonal advection feedback, analogous to the feedback framework for assessing climate sensitivity. This framework is supported by a prototype feedback analysis in the atmospheric dynamical core of a climate model with diverse thermal and mechanical forcings. Our analysis indicates that the latitude of a westerly jet is most sensitive to the thermally-induced jet speed changes near the tropopause. The jet shift also displays a larger sensitivity than linearity for the equatorward shift.

atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric variability, cli↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tropical Cirrus in Global Storm-Resolving Models: 1. Role of Deep Convection

Pervasive cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) influence the climate by altering the top-of-atmosphere radiation balance and stratospheric water vapor budget. These cirrus are often associated with deep convection, which global climate models must parameterize and struggle to accurately simulate. By comparing high-resolution global storm-resolving models from the Dynamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) intercomparison that explicitly simulate deep convection to satellite observations, we assess how well these models simulate deep convection, convectively generated cirrus, and deep convective injection of water into the TTL over representative tropical land and ocean regions. The DYAMOND models simulate deep convective precipitation, organization, and cloud structure fairly well over land and ocean regions, but with clear intermodel differences. All models produce frequent overshooting convection whose strongest updrafts humidify the TTL and are its main source of frozen water. Intermodel differences in cloud properties and convective injection exceed differences between land and ocean regions in each model. We argue that, with further improvements, global storm-resolving models can better represent tropical cirrus and deep convection in present and future climates than coarser-resolution climate models. To realize this potential, they must use available observations to perfect their ice microphysics and dynamical flow solvers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Australian wildfire smoke in the stratosphere: the decay phase in 2020/2021 and impact on ozone depletion

Abstract. Record-breaking wildfires raged in southeastern Australia in late December 2019 and early January 2020. Rather strong pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) convection developed over the fire areas and lofted enormous amounts of biomass burning smoke into the tropopause region and caused the strongest wildfire-related stratospheric aerosol perturbation ever observed around the globe. We discuss the geometrical, optical, and microphysical properties of the stratospheric smoke layers and the decay of this major stratospheric perturbation. A multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar at Punta Arenas (53.2∘ S, 70.9∘ W), southern Chile, and an elastic backscatter Raman lidar at Río Grande (53.8∘ S, 67.7∘ W) in southern Argentina, were operated to monitor the major record-breaking event until the end of 2021. These lidar measurements can be regarded as representative for mid to high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. A unique dynamical feature, an anticyclonic, smoke-filled vortex with 1000 km horizontal width and 5 km vertical extent, which ascended by about 500 m d−1, was observed over the full last week of January 2020. The key results of the long-term study are as follows. The smoke layers extended, on average, from 9 to 24 km in height. The smoke partly ascended to more than 30 km height as a result of self-lofting processes. Clear signs of a smoke impact on the record-breaking ozone hole over Antarctica in September–November 2020 were found. A slow decay of the stratospheric perturbation detected by means of the 532 nm aerosol optical thickness (AOT) yielded an e-folding decay time of 19–20 months. The maximum smoke AOT was around 1.0 over Punta Arenas in January 2020 and thus 2 to 3 orders of magnitude above the stratospheric aerosol background of 0.005. After 2 months with strongly varying smoke conditions, the 532 nm AOT decreased to 0.03-0.06 from March–December 2020 and to 0.015–0.03 throughout 2021. The particle extinction coefficients at 532 nm were in the range of 10–75 Mm−1 in January 2020 and, later on, mostly between 1 and 5 Mm−1. Combined lidar–photometer retrievals revealed typical smoke extinction-to-backscatter ratios of 69 ± 19 sr (at 355 nm), 91 ± 17 sr (at 532 nm), and 120 ± 22 sr (at 1064 nm). An ozone reduction of 20 %–25 % in the 15–22 km height range was observed over Antarctica and New Zealand ozonesonde stations in the smoke-polluted air, with particle surface area concentrations of 1–5 µm2 cm−3.

Ohneiser, Kevin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanisms in Regulating the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in Exascale Earth System Model Version 2

Abstract The update to the deep convection parameterization in the energy exascale Earth system model version 2 (E3SMv2) makes the simulated quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) have a shorter period than without the update when other tunable parameters the same since the update makes convection more intense but less frequent while leaving the time‐mean convective heating tendency almost unchanged. Amplitudes of momentum fluxes of parameterized gravity waves (GWs) are intensified since they are determined by the square of convective heating tendency. In addition, stronger planetary waves are simulated in E3SMv2 with the convection scheme update, partially due to the tropospheric precipitation change. Furthermore, there is evidence that planetary waves are intensified in the stratosphere due to the dissipation of enhanced parameterized GWs. These factors are found to be responsible for modulating the QBO simulated in E3SMv2.

Li, Yuanpu [Climate and Global Dynamics Division U↗
DOE OSTI2024

Applying the Velocity Gradient Technique in NGC 1333: Comparison with Dust Polarization Observations

Magnetic fields (B-fields) are ubiquitous in the interstellar medium (ISM), and they play an essential role in the formation of molecular clouds and subsequent star formation. However, B-fields in interstellar environments remain challenging to measure, and their properties typically need to be inferred from dust polarization observations over multiple physical scales. In this work, we seek to use a recently proposed approach called the velocity gradient technique (VGT) to study B-fields in star-forming regions and compare the results with dust polarization observations in different wavelengths. The VGT is based on the anisotropic properties of eddies in magnetized turbulence to derive B-field properties in the ISM. We investigate that this technique is synergistic with dust polarimetry when applied to a turbulent diffused medium for the purpose of measuring its magnetization. Specifically, we use the VGT on molecular line data toward the NGC 1333 star-forming region ( 12 CO, 13 CO, C 18 O, and N 2 H + ), and we compare the derived B-field properties with those inferred from 214 and 850 μm dust polarization observations of the region using Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy/High-Resolution Airborne Wide-band Camera Plus and James Clerk Maxwell Telescope/POL-2, respectively. We estimate both the inclination angle and the 3D Alfvénic Mach number M A from the molecular line gradients. Crucially, testing this technique on gravitationally bound, dynamic, and turbulent regions, and comparing the results with those obtained from polarization observations at different wavelengths, such as the plane-of-sky field orientation, is an important test on the applicability of the VGT in various density regimes of the ISM. We in general do not find a close correlation between the velocity gradient inferred orientations and the dust inferred magnetic field orientations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 1. Overview of the Atmospheric Component

This paper describes the atmospheric component of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 3. Significant updates have been made to the atmospheric physics compared to earlier versions. Specifically, interactive gas chemistry has been implemented, along with improved representations of aerosols and dust emissions. A new stratiform cloud microphysics scheme more physically treats ice processes and aerosol‐cloud interactions. The deep convection parameterization has been largely improved with sophisticated microphysics for convective clouds, making model convection sensitive to large‐scale dynamics, and incorporating the dynamical and physical effects of organized mesoscale convection. Improvements in aerosol wet removal processes and parameter re‐tuning of key aerosol and cloud processes have improved model aerosol radiative forcing. The model's vertical resolution has increased from 72 to 80 layers with the extra eight layers added in the lower stratosphere to better simulate the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation. These improvements have enhanced E3SM's capability to couple aerosol, chemistry, and biogeochemistry and reduced some long‐standing biases in simulating tropical variability. Compared to its predecessors, the model shows a much stronger signal for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby‐gravity waves, and eastward inertia‐gravity waves. Aerosol radiative forcing has been considerably reduced and is now better aligned with community best estimates, leading to significantly improved skill in simulating historical temperature records. Its simulated mean‐state climate is largely comparable to E3SMv2, but with some notable degradation in shortwave cloud radiative effect, precipitable water, and surface wind stress, which will be addressed in future updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Path Properties of Atmospheric Transitions: Illustration with a Low-Order Sudden Stratospheric Warming Model

Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the limited data that are available. Here we describe transition path theory (TPT), a framework originally developed for molecular simulation, and argue that it is a useful paradigm for developing mechanistic understanding of rare climate events. TPT provides a method to calculate statistical properties of the paths into the event. As an initial demonstration of the utility of TPT, we analyze a low-order model of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), a dramatic disturbance to the polar vortex that can induce extreme cold spells at the surface in the midlatitudes. SSW events pose a major challenge for seasonal weather prediction because of their rapid, complex onset and development. Climate models struggle to capture the long-term statistics of SSW, owing to their diversity and intermittent nature. We use a stochastically forced Holton–Mass-type model with two stable states, corresponding to radiative equilibrium and a vacillating SSW-like regime. In this stochastic bistable setting, from certain probabilistic forecasts TPT facilitates estimation of dominant transition pathways and return times of transitions. These “dynamical statistics” are obtained by solving partial differential equations in the model’s phase space. With future application to more complex models, TPT and its constituent quantities promise to improve the predictability of extreme weather events through both generation and principled evaluation of forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental protocol for phase 1 of the APARC QUOCA (QUasibiennial oscillation and Ozone Chemistry interactions in the Atmosphere) working group

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the main mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere, influencing the predictability of other regions in the atmosphere through its teleconnections to the stratospheric polar vortices and coupling to surface tropical and extratropical variability. However, climate and forecasting models consistently underestimate QBO amplitudes in the lower stratosphere, likely contributing to their failure to simulate these teleconnections. One underexplored contributor to model biases is missing representation of ozone-radiative feedbacks, which enhance temperature variability in the lower stratosphere, particularly at periods at and greater than the QBO (>28 months). While previous studies suggest that ozone-radiative feedbacks can impact QBO periods, amplitudes and the associated secondary circulation in the lower stratosphere, the reported impacts differ widely among models and are hard to interpret due to differences in methodology. To this end, here we propose a coordinated experimental protocol – held joint between the Atmospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (APARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Initiative (QBOi) and Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) activities – which is aimed at assessing the coupling between stratospheric ozone, temperature and the circulation. We use the proposed experiments to define the ozone feedback on the QBO in both present-day and idealized (abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide) climates. While primary focus is on the QBO, the proposed protocol also enables analysis of other aspects of ozone-radiative-dynamical coupling in the atmosphere, including impacts on the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and tropospheric eddy-driven jet responses to future climate change. Here we document the scientific rationale and design of the QUOCA Phase 1 experiments, summarize the data request, and give a brief overview of participating models. Preliminary results using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies E2-2 climate model are used to illustrate sensitivities to certain methodological choices.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reducing uncertainty of polar to midlatitude linkages using DOE’s E3SM in a coordinated model-experiment setting

This project brought DOE’s climate modeling effort with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model into the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which is part of the sixth and latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. PAMIP examines the causes and consequences of polar amplification, when external forcing results in a larger temperature increase in high latitudes than the global average, in a coordinated set of model experiments with a common modeling protocol. Our teams from UC Irvine and the University of Toronto have designed, carried out, analyzed, and disseminated PAMIP output from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). PAMIP’s ongoing stream of significant new results have advanced progress in the community’s understanding and led to new outstanding research questions that have motivated further work. PAMIP has led to improved consensus on the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. The important finding is that for a similar sea ice anomaly forcing, the simulated atmospheric response in the troposphere is remarkably consistent among the 16 models’ runs analyzed. The zonal-mean tropospheric response consists of a very robust equatorward shift of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. However, while the multi-model mean response is robust, it has a weak amplitude relative to internal variability. We identified a weakness in the models (including E3SM) in terms of their response to sea-ice forcing that is related to eddy forcing (or nonlinear dynamical effects) at mid- to high latitudes. In fact, E3SM is an outlier in terms of the models participating, and in that sense, it turned out to be a vital participant model. We found that reductions in energy transport due sea-ice loss and involving dry air only are compensated by increases in moist energy transport from warmer sea surface temperature in midlatitudes. This leads to a large spread in energy transport into the Arctic and is a potential source of spread in Arctic amplification. We identified an important role that climate modes, including tropical modes of variability (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)) play in the response to sea-ice anomalies, including in ocean coupled experiments. Similarly, we identified and quantified the contribution of sea-ice thickness to the atmospheric response compared to the response to sea-ice extent only. We found that it is important to run large ensembles and even with an ensemble size of 100 simulations the response is largely influenced by internal variability. We demonstrated convincingly that Ural blocking, not sea-ice loss, provides the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in fall/early winter and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that can last for up to two months. However, sea-ice anomalies can influence the background flow so that the response to Ural blocking is more persistent under low sea-ice conditions in the Barents/Kara Sea than high sea ice Atmospheric model hierarchies that progressively add individual processes have a long history in providing dynamical insight for modeling the atmosphere. Similarly, coupled model hierarchies that progressively add individual ocean processes can provide insights into the workings of the coupled climate system, however such hierarchies have not been available except for a non-dynamical slab ocean model. Because of the missing processes, surface flux corrections must be added to produce a target climate. In this project, we managed to overcome this problem and develop a globally coupled ocean model hierarchy in CESM that can turn on and off the processes of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow. We used the hierarchy to study the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the climate system. We find that the effect of mixed-layer entrainment on ocean heat uptake influences the atmospheric circulation by shifting the latitudinal positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In quadrupled CO 2 experiments, we studied how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. In order to identify the importance of individual ocean processes, we used the hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows, and frictional flows. We showed that including Ekman and frictional flows allows our simulation to produce the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern and equatorward ITCZ contraction noted in previous climate simulations. We also showed that the frictional flow, which has yet to receive much attention, is as important as the Ekman flow in generating equatorial heat convergence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting rare events using neural networks and short-trajectory data

Estimating the likelihood, timing, and nature of events is a major goal of modeling stochastic dynamical systems. When the event is rare in comparison with the timescales of simulation and/or measurement needed to resolve the elemental dynamics, accurate prediction from direct observations becomes challenging. In such cases a more effective approach is to cast statistics of interest as solutions to Feynman-Kac equations (partial differential equations). Here, we develop an approach to solve Feynman-Kac equations by training neural networks on short-trajectory data. Our approach is based on a Markov approximation but otherwise avoids assumptions about the underlying model and dynamics. This makes it applicable to treating complex computational models and observational data. Additionally, we illustrate the advantages of our method using a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization, and this analysis motivates an adaptive sampling strategy that allows on-the-fly identification of and addition of data to regions important for predicting the statistics of interest. Finally, we demonstrate that we can compute accurate statistics for a 75-dimensional model of sudden stratospheric warming. This system provides a stringent test bed for our method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Changes in Hadley circulation and intertropical convergence zone under strategic stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering has been proposed as a potential solution to reduce climate change and its impacts. Here, we explore the responses of the Hadley circulation (HC) intensity and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) using the strategic stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, in which sulfur dioxide was injected into the stratosphere at four different locations to maintain the global-mean surface temperature and the interhemispheric and equator-to-pole temperature gradients at present-day values (baseline). Simulations show that, relative to the baseline, strategic stratospheric aerosol geoengineering generally maintains northern winter December–January–February (DJF) HC intensity under RCP8.5, while it overcompensates for the greenhouse gas (GHG)-forced southern winter June–July–August (JJA) HC intensity increase, producing a 3.5 ± 0.4% weakening. The residual change of southern HC intensity in JJA is mainly associated with stratospheric heating and tropospheric temperature response due to enhanced stratospheric aerosol concentrations. Geoengineering overcompensates for the GHG-driven northward ITCZ shifts, producing 0.7° ± 0.1° and 0.2° ± 0.1° latitude southward migrations in JJA and DJF, respectively relative to the baseline. These migrations are affected by tropical interhemispheric temperature differences both at the surface and in the free troposphere. Further strategies for reducing the residual change of HC intensity and ITCZ shifts under stratospheric aerosol geoengineering could involve minimizing stratospheric heating and restoring and preserving the present-day tropical tropospheric interhemispheric temperature differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Re-evaluating cloud chamber constraints on depositional ice growth in cirrus clouds – Part 1: Model description and sensitivity tests

Abstract. Ice growth from vapor deposition is an important process for the evolution of cirrus clouds, but the physics of depositional ice growth at the low temperatures (<235 K) characteristic of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is not well understood. Surface attachment kinetics, generally parameterized as a deposition coefficient αD, control ice crystal habit and also may limit growth rates in certain cases, but significant discrepancies between experimental measurements have not been satisfactorily explained. Experiments on single ice crystals have previously indicated the deposition coefficient is a function of temperature and supersaturation, consistent with growth mechanisms controlled by the crystal's surface characteristics. Here we use observations from cloud chamber experiments in the Aerosol Interactions and Dynamics in the Atmosphere (AIDA) aerosol and cloud chamber to evaluate surface kinetic models in realistic cirrus conditions. These experiments have rapidly changing temperature, pressure, and ice supersaturation such that depositional ice growth may evolve from diffusion limited to surface kinetics limited over the course of a single experiment. In Part 1, we describe the adaptation of a Lagrangian parcel model with the Diffusion Surface Kinetics Ice Crystal Evolution (DiSKICE) model (Zhang and Harrington, 2014) to the AIDA chamber experiments. We compare the observed ice water content and saturation ratios to that derived under varying assumptions for ice surface growth mechanisms for experiments simulating ice clouds between 180 and 235 K and pressures between 150 and 300 hPa. We found that both heterogeneous and homogeneous nucleation experiments at higher temperatures (>205 K) could generally be modeled consistently with either a constant deposition coefficient or the DiSKICE model assuming growth on isometric crystals via abundant surface dislocations. Lower-temperature experiments showed more significant deviations from any depositional growth model, with different ice growth rates for heterogeneous and homogeneous nucleation experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model

Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale Wildfire Simulation Framework and Remote Sensing

Wildfire as one type of climate extreme events causes huge socioeconomic losses and damages. Large wildfires (i.e., generated pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb)) can inject tremendous amounts of smoke into the stratosphere, where black carbon and organic carbon aerosols can persist months to years and influence climate by imposing a significant reduction in the radiative forcing like that associated with large volcanic eruptions or proposed via climate interventions such as geoengineering. Both observations and numerical modeling results clearly indicate an increasing trend in wildfire frequency and intensity in many regions during the recent decades with climate change. However, current understanding of wildfire remains largely uncertain owing to limitations of modeling capabilities in representing the multiscale wildfire physics and dynamics and a scarcity of observations constraining important wildfire and environmental variables. This study primarily aims to improve the wildfire simulation capabilities in the state-of-the-art climate model by filling in two major gaps: (1) model resolution is typically too coarse to resolve fine scale processes associated with fires, and (2) chemistry and aerosol processes in fire smoke are poorly represented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonlinear Response of Atmospheric Blocking to Early Winter Barents–Kara Seas Warming: An Idealized Model Study

Wintertime Ural blocking (UB) has been shown to play an important role in cold extremes over Eurasia, and thus it is useful to investigate the impact of warming over the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) on the behavior of Ural blocking. In our study the response of UB to stepwise tropospheric warming over the BKS is examined using a dry dynamic core model. Nonlinear responses are found in the frequency and local persistence of UB. The frequency and local persistence of the UB increase with the strength of BKS warming in a less strong range and decrease with the further increase of BKS warming, which is linked to the UB propagation influenced by upstream background atmospheric circulation. For a weak BKS warming, the UB becomes more persistent due to its less westward movement associated with intensified upstream zonal wind and meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) in the North Atlantic mid-high latitudes, which corresponds to a negative height response over the North Atlantic high latitudes. When BKS warming is strong, a positive height response appears in the early winter stratosphere, and its subsequent downward propagation leads to a negative NAO response or increased Greenland blocking events, which reduces zonal wind and PVy in the high latitudes from North Atlantic to Europe, thus enhancing the westward propagation of UB and reducing its local persistence. The transition to the negative NAO phase and the retrogression of UB are not found when numerically suppressing the downward influence of weakened stratospheric polar vortex, suggesting a crucial role of the stratospheric pathway in nonlinear responses of UB to the early winter BKS warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity of “Middle Atmosphere” Chemistry Configurations of the Community Earth System Model Version 2, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (CESM2(WACCM6))

Abstract Simulating whole atmosphere dynamics, chemistry, and physics is computationally expensive. It can require high vertical resolution throughout the middle and upper atmosphere, as well as a comprehensive chemistry and aerosol scheme coupled to radiation physics. An unintentional outcome of the development of one of the most sophisticated and hence computationally expensive model configurations is that it often excludes a broad community of users with limited computational resources. Here, we analyze two configurations of the Community Earth System Model Version 2, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (CESM2(WACCM6)) with simplified “middle atmosphere” chemistry at nominal 1 and 2° horizontal resolutions. Using observations, a reanalysis, and direct model comparisons, we find that these configurations generally reproduce the climate, variability, and climate sensitivity of the 1° nominal horizontal resolution configuration with comprehensive chemistry. While the background stratospheric aerosol optical depth is elevated in the middle atmosphere configurations as compared to the comprehensive chemistry configuration, it is comparable among all configurations during volcanic eruptions. For any purposes other than those needing an accurate representation of tropospheric organic chemistry and secondary organic aerosols, these simplified chemistry configurations deliver reliable simulations of the whole atmosphere that require 35% and 86% fewer computational resources at nominal 1 and 2° horizontal resolution, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts, processes and projections of the quasi-biennial oscillation

In the tropical stratosphere, deep layers of eastward and westward winds encircle the globe and descend regularly from the upper stratosphere to the tropical tropopause. With a complete cycle typically lasting almost 2.5 years, this quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is arguably the most predictable mode of atmospheric variability that is not linked to the changing seasons. Here, the QBO affects climate phenomena outside the tropical stratosphere, including ozone transport, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and its high predictability could enable better forecasts of these phenomena if models can accurately represent the coupling processes. Climate and forecasting models are increasingly able to simulate stratospheric oscillations resembling the QBO, but exhibit common systematic errors such as weak amplitude in the lowermost tropical stratosphere. Uncertainties about the waves that force the oscillation, particularly the momentum fluxes from small-scale gravity waves excited by deep convection, make its simulation challenging. Improved representation of the processes governing the QBO is expected to lead to better forecasts of the oscillation and its impacts, increased understanding of unusual events such as the two QBO disruptions observed since 2016, and more reliable future projections of QBO behaviour under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Responses in the Subpolar North Atlantic in Two Climate Model Sensitivity Experiments with Increased Stratospheric Aerosols

Abstract The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) shows contrasting responses in two sensitivity experiments with increased stratospheric aerosols, offering insight into the physical processes that may impact the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in a warmer climate. In one, the upper ocean becomes warm and salty, but in the other it becomes cold and fresh. The changes are accompanied by diverging AMOC responses. The first experiment strengthens the AMOC, opposing the weakening trend in the reference simulation. The second experiment shows a much smaller impact. Both simulations use the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model component (CESM-WACCM) but differ in model versions and stratospheric aerosol specifications. Despite both experiments using similar approaches to increase stratospheric aerosols to counteract the rising global temperature, the contrasting SPNA and AMOC responses indicate a considerable dependency on model physics, climate states, and model responses to forcings. This study focuses on examining the physical processes involved with the impact of stratospheric aerosols on the SPNA salinity changes and their potential connections with the AMOC and the Arctic. We find that in both cases, increased stratospheric aerosols act to enhance the SPNA upper-ocean salinity by reducing freshwater export from the Arctic, which is closely tied to the Arctic sea ice changes. The impact on AMOC is primarily through the thermal component of the surface buoyancy fluxes, with negligible contributions from the freshwater component. These experiments shed light on the physical processes that dictate the important connections between the SPNA, the Arctic, the AMOC, and their subsequent feedbacks on the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗