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Results for “structural uncertainty quantification”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Active learning of ternary alloy structures and energies

Abstract Machine learning models with uncertainty quantification have recently emerged as attractive tools to accelerate the navigation of catalyst design spaces in a data-efficient manner. Here, we combine active learning with a dropout graph convolutional network (dGCN) as a surrogate model to explore the complex materials space of high-entropy alloys (HEAs). We train the dGCN on the formation energies of disordered binary alloy structures in the Pd-Pt-Sn ternary alloy system and improve predictions on ternary structures by performing reduced optimization of the formation free energy, the target property that determines HEA stability, over ensembles of ternary structures constructed based on two coordinate systems: (a) a physics-informed ternary composition space, and (b) data-driven coordinates discovered by the Diffusion Maps manifold learning scheme. Both reduced optimization techniques improve predictions of the formation free energy in the ternary alloy space with a significantly reduced number of DFT calculations compared to a high-fidelity model. The physics-based scheme converges to the target property in a manner akin to a depth-first strategy, whereas the data-driven scheme appears more akin to a breadth-first approach. Both sampling schemes, coupled with our acquisition function, successfully exploit a database of DFT-calculated binary alloy structures and energies, augmented with a relatively small number of ternary alloy calculations, to identify stable ternary HEA compositions and structures. This generalized framework can be extended to incorporate more complex bulk and surface structural motifs, and the results demonstrate that significant dimensionality reduction is possible in thermodynamic sampling problems when suitable active learning schemes are employed.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

GPR_calculator: An on-the-fly surrogate model to accelerate massive nudged elastic band calculations

We present GPR_calculator, a package based on Python and C++ programming languages to build an on-the-fly surrogate model using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to approximate computationally expensive electronic structure calculations. The key idea is to dynamically train a GPR model during the simulation that can accurately predict energies and forces with uncertainty quantification. When the uncertainty is high, the costly electronic structure calculation is performed to obtain the ground truth data, which is then used to update the GPR model. To illustrate the effectiveness of GPR_calculator, we demonstrate its application in Nudged Elastic Band (NEB) simulations of surface diffusion and reactions, achieving 3-10 times acceleration compared to pure ab initio calculations. The source code is available at https://github.com/MaterSim/GPR_calculator.

Gaussian process regression↗
DOE OSTI2022

A machine learning pipeline for membrane segmentation of cryo-electron tomograms

We describe how to use several machine learning techniques organized in a learning pipeline to segment and identify cell membrane structures from cryo electron tomograms. These tomograms are difficult to analyze with traditional segmentation tools. The learning pipeline in our approach starts from supervised learning via a special convolutional neural network trained with simulated data. It continues with semi-supervised reinforcement learning and/or a region merging technique that tries to piece together disconnected components belonging to the same membrane structure. A parametric or non-parametric fitting procedure is then used to enhance the segmentation results and quantify uncertainties in the fitting. Domain knowledge is used in generating the training data for the neural network and in guiding the fitting procedure through the use of appropriately chosen priors and constraints. We demonstrate that the approach proposed here works well for extracting membrane surfaces in two real tomogram datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards precise and accurate calculations of neutrinoless double-beta decay

We present the results of a National Science Foundation Project Scoping Workshop, the purpose of which was to assess the current status of calculations for the nuclear matrix elements governing neutrinoless double-beta decay and determine if more work on them is required. After reviewing important recent progress in the application of effective field theory, lattice quantum chromodynamics, and ab initio nuclear-structure theory to double-beta decay, we discuss the state of the art in nuclear-physics uncertainty quantification and then construct a roadmap for work in all these areas to fully complement the increasingly sensitive experiments in operation and under development. The roadmap includes specific projects in theoretical and computational physics as well as the use of Bayesian methods to quantify both intra- and inter-model uncertainties. Here, the goal of this ambitious program is a set of accurate and precise matrix elements, in all nuclei of interest to experimentalists, delivered together with carefully assessed uncertainties. Such calculations will allow crisp conclusions from the observation or non-observation of neutrinoless double-beta decay, no matter what new physics is at play.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Inference of Liquid Structure from Scattering Data

We present a nonparametric Bayesian framework to infer radial distribution functions from experimental scattering measurements with uncertainty quantification using nonstationary Gaussian processes. The Gaussian process prior mean and kernel functions are designed to mitigate well-known numerical challenges with the Fourier transform, including discrete measurement binning and detector windowing, while encoding fundamental yet minimal physical knowledge of the liquid structure. We demonstrate uncertainty propagation of the Gaussian process posterior to unmeasured quantities of interest. Experimental radial distribution functions of liquid argon and water with uncertainty quantification are provided as both a proof of principle for the method and a benchmark for molecular models.

Chemical structure↗
DOE OSTI2016

Composite laminate failure parameter optimization through four-point flexure experimentation and analysis

Fiber-reinforced composite materials offer light-weight solutions to many structural challenges. In the development of high-performance composite structures, a thorough understanding is required of the composite materials themselves as well as methods for the analysis and failure prediction of the relevant composite structures. However, the mechanical properties required for the complete constitutive definition of a composite material can be difficult to determine through experimentation. Therefore, efficient methods are necessary that can be used to determine which properties are relevant to the analysis of a specific structure and to establish a structure's response to a material parameter that can only be defined through estimation. The objectives of this paper deal with demonstrating the potential value of sensitivity and uncertainty quantification techniques during the failure analysis of loaded composite structures; and the proposed methods are applied to the simulation of the four-point flexural characterization of a carbon fiber composite material. Utilizing a recently implemented, phenomenological orthotropic material model that is capable of predicting progressive composite damage and failure, a sensitivity analysis is completed to establish which material parameters are truly relevant to a simulation's outcome. Then, a parameter study is completed to determine the effect of the relevant material properties' expected variations on the simulated four-point flexural behavior as well as to determine the value of an unknown material property. This process demonstrates the ability to formulate accurate predictions in the absence of a rigorous material characterization effort. Finally, the presented results indicate that a sensitivity analysis and parameter study can be used to streamline the material definition process as the described flexural characterization was used for model validation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty Quantification of Activation Due to Cross Section Data in Neutron Shielding Calculation

Quantification of activation in structure materials around the nuclear reactor through calculation is necessary before start of decommissioning. Then a neutron shielding calculation is carried out to estimate activation of structural materials. Neutron shielding calculation is performed out for spatially large regions around a reactor through deep penetration calculation, calculation result would have significant uncertainty. In order to minimize total amount of structure materials treated as radioactive waste, quantitative estimation on uncertainty of structural activation and its reduction is important. The uncertainties due to calculation arises from that of input data and that of calculation method. Examples of uncertainty of input data is those for nuclear reaction cross section and atom density of the nuclide in the structure. In this study, we focus on the uncertainty of cross section, which would be one of the dominant uncertainties, and try to estimate uncertainty of activation due to cross section data in a neutron shielding calculation. The random sampling method (RS) is used as the uncertainty quantification method. With the RS method, uncertainty estimation can be carried out without modification of computer codes for a neutron shielding calculation. (authors)

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

From noise to information: The transfer function formalism for uncertainty quantification in reconstructing the nuclear density

The neutron distribution of neutron-rich nuclei provides critical information on the structure of finite nuclei and neutron stars. Parity violating experiments—such as PREX and CREX—provide a clean and largely model-independent determination of neutron densities. Such experiments, however, are challenging and expensive, which is why sound statistical arguments are required to maximize the information gained. We introduce a new framework, the “transfer function formalism,” aimed at uncertainty quantification, model selection, and experimental design in the context of neutron densities. The transfer functions (TFs) are built analytically by expressing the linear response of the objective function (e.g., χ2) to small perturbations of the data. Using the TF formalism, we are able to analyze the expected overall uncertainty—quantified in terms of bias and variance—of the mean square radius and interior density of 48 Ca and 208 Pb. Using relativistic mean field models as a proxy for the weak-charge density—and assuming that a total of five measurements could be performed on the weak form factor of 48 Ca and 208 Pb—we identify the optimal models and experimental locations that minimize the uncertainty in the extraction of the radius and interior density. We also explore the use of the TF formalism to understand the influence of prior distributions for the model parameters, as well as the optimization of model hyperparameters not constrained by the data. Here,we establish how the choice of experimental locations and the model that is used can have a significant impact on the final uncertainties of the extracted quantities of interest. For challenging experiments such as CREX and PREX, a proper quantification of such uncertainties is critical. We have demonstrated how the TF formalism provides several advantages for this type of analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Concrete Structural Health Monitoring in Nuclear Power Plants

Assessment and management of aging concrete structures in nuclear power plants require a more systematic approach than simple reliance on existing code margins of safety. Health monitoring of concrete structures is performed in order to understand the current condition of a structure based on heterogeneous measurements and then produce high confidence actionable information regarding structural integrity; this information can then be used to support operational and maintenance decisions. The paper describes a framework of research activities for the health monitoring of nuclear power plant concrete structures. The proposed framework consists of four elements: health monitoring, data analytics, uncertainty quantification, and prognosis. The goal of this framework is to enable plant operators to make risk-informed decisions on structural integrity, remaining useful life, and performance of concrete structures across the nuclear fleet. Among several concrete degradations, the research focuses on the degradation caused by the Alkali-Silica Reaction (ASR). ASR is a chemical reaction that in presence of sufficient moisture forms a gel that increases in volume and exerts an expansive pressure inside the material causing micro- to macro-cracks. The paper also presents development of controlled concrete samples with reactive aggregates to cause ASR degradation and application of different non-destructive evaluation techniques to detect the damage caused by ASR. Initial results are presented in the paper along with potential path forward.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) method for long-time integration of second-order stochastic dynamical systems

For decades, uncertainty quantification techniques based on the spectral approach have been demonstrated to be computationally more efficient than the Monte Carlo method for a wide variety of problems, particularly when the dimensionality of the probability space is relatively low. The time-dependent generalized polynomial chaos (TD-gPC) is one such technique that uses an evolving orthogonal basis to better represent the stochastic part of the solution space in time. Here in this paper, we present a new numerical method that uses the concept of enriched stochastic flow maps to track the evolution of the stochastic part of the solution space in time. The computational cost of this proposed flow-driven stochastic chaos (FSC) method is an order of magnitude lower than TD-gPC for comparable solution accuracy. This gain in computational cost is realized because, unlike most existing methods, the number of basis vectors required to track the stochastic part of the solution space does not depend upon the dimensionality of the probability space. Four representative numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the FSC method for long-time integration of second-order stochastic dynamical systems in the context of stochastic dynamics of structures.

FSC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Model Inadequacy in TRISO Nuclear Fuel Fission Products Release Models: Empirical and Mechanistic Approaches

The increasing use of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel in both advanced and existing reactors necessitates a thorough evaluation of uncertainties and shortcomings in TRISO fission product release models. These inadequacies arise from the simplifications made in computational models compared to experimental data. Utilizing the BISON fuel performance code and experimental data from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program provides a unique chance to rigorously assess these inadequacies within a Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. This study contrasts the standard Bayesian framework with the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly accounts for modeling inadequacies, in the context of UQ for TRISO silver release models. It examines both the traditional Arrhenius equation and a more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model that incorporates microstructure information. The inverse UQ process applied to AGR-2 and AGR-3/4 datasets identified modeling inadequacy as the primary source of uncertainty, with experimental noise also being significant, while model parameter uncertainty was minimal. Both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models showed similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For forward predictive UQ using the AGR-1 dataset, the KOH framework enhanced the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties by approximately 30% and 40%, respectively, compared to the standard Bayesian framework. This improvement was observed for both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models. At the engineering scale, both models performed similarly, but the LLS-informed model outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These findings underscore the importance of explicitly considering modeling inadequacy in the UQ process and highlight the need for ongoing refinement of physics-based models to address these shortcomings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unpacking model inadequacy: The quantification of silver release from TRISO fuel by considering empirical and mechanistic approaches

Increasing adoption of the proposed tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel for both advanced and existing reactors makes it critical to assess and address any uncertainties and inadequacies of TRISO fission product release models. Model inadequacy stems from simplifications made to the computational model when compared to the experiments. The modeling and simulation efforts conducted using the BISON fuel performance code, along with the experimental campaigns carried out under the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program, afford a unique opportunity to conduct a rigorous modeling inadequacy assessment within the Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. Here, this study compares the standard Bayesian framework against the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly represents modeling inadequacy, in regard to UQ for TRISO silver release models. For this purpose, both the traditional Arrhenius equation fitted to experimental data and the more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model, which considers microstructure information, are independently considered. Applying the inverse UQ process on the AGR-2 and -3/4 datasets revealed modeling inadequacy to be the most dominant source of uncertainty. Experimental noise uncertainty is also significant; however, model parameter uncertainty can be considered negligible. Interestingly, both the Arrhenius equation and the LLS-informed model demonstrated similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For the forward predictive UQ, the KOH framework improved both the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties in comparison to the standard Bayesian framework. This is true for both the Arrhenius equation and the LLS-informed model. In comparing these modeling approaches, both demonstrated similar performance at the engineering scale, while the LLS-informed model expectedly outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These conclusions highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for modeling inadequacy in the UQ process, and reinforce the need for continuous refinement of physics-based models in order to address the modeling inadequacy.

Advanced reactors↗
DOE OSTI2025

A high-throughput approach for statistical process optimization in Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Process variability is inherent in metal additive manufacturing (AM). However, it is often overlooked in process optimization frameworks, constraining the understanding of process uncertainties and their influence on parameter selection. To address this, we present an integrated framework that combines high-throughput single-track experiments, GAN-based melt pool geometry extraction, robust statistical and machine learning modeling, and uncertainty-quantified process mapping. Process variability is characterized through single-track melt pool behaviors, and its influence on defect formation is systematically quantified to enable statistically guided process parameter optimization. This approach is demonstrated on Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) of stainless steel 316L, effectively capturing the interplay between process parameters, melt pool variability, and defect probability. By integrating uncertainty quantification into process optimization, this study provides a structured methodology for addressing variability challenges in AM quality control, ultimately contributing to enhanced manufacturing reliability.

Laser Powder Bed Fusion↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear properties with semilocal momentum-space regularized chiral interactions beyond N 2 LO

We present a comprehensive investigation of few-nucleon systems as well as light and medium-mass nuclei up to A = 48 using the current Low Energy Nuclear Physics International Collaboration two-nucleon interactions in combination with the third-order (N 2 LO) three-nucleon forces. To address the systematic overbinding of nuclei starting from A ≈ 10 found in our earlier study utilizing the N 2 LO two- and three-nucleon forces, we take into account higher-order corrections to the two-nucleon potentials up through fifth order in chiral effective field theory. Here, the resulting Hamiltonian can be completely determined using the A = 3 binding energies and selected nucleon-deuteron cross sections as input. It is then shown to predict other nucleon-deuteron scattering observables and spectra of light p-shell nuclei, for which a detailed correlated truncation error analysis is performed, in agreement with experimental data. Moreover, the predicted ground state energies of nuclei in the oxygen isotopic chain from 14 O to 26 O as well as 40 Ca and 48 Ca show a remarkably good agreement with experimental values, given that the Hamiltonian is fixed completely from the A ≤ 3 data, once the fourth-order (N 3 LO) corrections to the two-nucleon interactions are taken into account. On the other hand, the charge radii are found to be underpredicted by ≈10% for the oxygen isotopes and by almost 20% for 40 Ca and 48 Ca.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗
DOE OSTI2025

Block-Structured Operator Inference for Coupled Multiphysics Model Reduction

This work presents a block-structured formulation of Operator Inference as a way to learn structured reduced-order models for multiphysics systems. The approach specifies the governing equation structure for each physics component and the structure of the coupling terms. Once the multiphysics structure is specified, the reduced-order model is learned from snapshot data following the nonintrusive Operator Inference methodology. In addition to preserving physical system structure, which in turn permits preservation of system properties such as stability and second-order structure, the block-structured approach has the advantages of reducing the overall dimensionality of the learning problem and admitting tailored regularization for each physics component. The numerical advantages of the block-structured formulation over a monolithic Operator Inference formulation are demonstrated for aeroelastic analysis, which couples aerodynamic and structural models. For the benchmark test case of the AGARD 445.6 wing, block-structured Operator Inference provides an average 20% online prediction speedup over monolithic Operator Inference across subsonic and supersonic flow conditions in both the stable and fluttering parameter regimes while preserving the accuracy achieved with monolithic Operator Inference.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Uncertainty quantification in multiscale simulation of woven fiber composites

We report woven fiber composites have been increasingly employed as light-weight materials in aerospace, construction, and transportation industries due to their superior properties. These materials possess a hierarchical structure that necessitates the use of multiscale simulations in their modeling. To account for the inherent uncertainty in materials, such simulations must be integrated with statistical uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation (UP) methods. However, limited advancement has been made in this regard due to the significant computational costs and complexities in modeling spatially correlated structural variations coupled at different scales. In this work, a non-intrusive approach is proposed for multiscale UQ and UP to address these limitations. We introduce the top-down sampling method that allows to model non-stationary and continuous (but not differentiable) spatial variations of uncertainty sources by creating nested random fields (RFs) where the hyperparameters of an ensemble of RFs is characterized by yet another RF. We employ multi-response Gaussian RFs in top-down sampling and leverage statistical techniques (such as metamodeling and dimensionality reduction) to address the considerable computational costs of multiscale simulations. We apply our approach to quantify the uncertainty in a cured woven composite due to spatial variations of yarn angle, fiber volume fraction, and fiber misalignment angle. Finally, our results indicate that, even in linear analysis, the effect of uncertainty sources on the material’s response could be significant.

42 ENGINEERING↗