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At least 55 records · Page 3

Stratospheric wind errors, initial states and forecast skill in the GLAS general circulation model

Relations between stratospheric wind errors, initial states and 500 mb skill are investigated using the GLAS general circulation model initialized with FGGE data. Erroneous stratospheric winds are seen in all current general circulation models, appearing also as weak shear above the subtropical jet and as cold polar stratospheres. In this study it is shown that the more anticyclonic large-scale flows are correlated with large forecast stratospheric winds. In addition, it is found that for North America the resulting errors are correlated with initial state jet stream accelerations while for East Asia the forecast winds are correlated with initial state jet strength. Using 500 mb skill scores over Europe at day 5 to measure forecast performance, it is found that both poor forecast skill and excessive stratospheric winds are correlated with more anticyclonic large-scale flows over North America. It is hypothesized that the resulting erroneous kinetic energy contributes to the poor forecast skill, and that the problem is caused by a failure in the modeling of the stratospheric energy cycle in current general circulation models independent of vertical resolution.

Tenenbaum, J.↗

Interhemispheric interactions

Diagnoses of global data sets are presented that indicate strong coupling between the regions of enhanced tropical convection of the summer hemisphere and subtropical jet stream maxima of the winter hemisphere. One curious aspect of this coupling is that it tends to occur through zones of easterly winds at upper tropospheric levels. This characterizes the El Nino event of 1983, an upper connection of the Asian monsoon to the Australian jet in FGGE and DST data and shorter term transitions during the First Special Observing Period of FGGE. The reasons for the apparent propagation through easterly wind zones remain to be clarified.

Paegle, J.↗

The Southern Hemisphere circulation during the FGGE and its representativeness

An analysis of the global redistribution of mass during the FGGE year indicates that the global circulation was highly anomalous in several respects, especially from April to July 1979. For the 56 to year period 1924-1980, sea-level pressures over the northern hemisphere during the FGGE year were second highest in spring and highest in summer. In April and June, the anomalies were 1-in-100-year events. At the same time, sea-level pressure deficits and an exceptionally deep circumpolar trough were recorded over the Southern Hemisphere. Such compensation between the hemispheres, through the constraint of conservation of mass, provides support for the highly typical nature of the circulation analyzed to exist over the Southern Hemisphere throughout the FGGE year. The Southern Hemisphere circulation was characterized by an exceptionally deep circumpolar trough, an increase in westerlies from 40 deg to 70 deg S, and a decrease in westerlies to the north. In winter, the subtropical jet was weaker and the polar jet stronger than normal, so that a pronounced double jet structure prevailed. In summer, the jet was shifted south by 3 deg latitude. A southward shift in storm tracks accompanied these changes year round in a manner consistent with theory.

Trenberth, K. E.↗

The response of the tropical atmosphere to low frequency thermal forcing

The tropical response to a localized thermal forcing with approximately 45-day period is investigated for several models of increasing complexity consisting of two equivalent shallow water systems and two fully stratified systems. The fully stratified models appear to be able to reproduce a number of observed features of the tropical 40-50 day oscillation including the modulation of the subtropical jet and the eastward and poleward propagation of zonal wind anomalies.

Anderson, John R.↗

An eastern Pacific tropical plume

The synoptic structure of the atmosphere in the vicinity of a tropical cloud surge (or plume) is described on the basis of a single case study (the case study plume occurred during the Special Observing Period 1 of the FGGE), which was augmented with details of studies of three other systems. The tropical plume was accompanied by intense drying and subsidence within the trough to the northwest, and a strong subtropical jet within the plume, which originated near the equator. It is shown that the plume developed simultaneously out of several disturbances along its axis.

Mcguirk, James P.↗

The sensitivity of stationary waves to variations in the basic state zonal flow

A linear, primitive equation stationary wave model having high vertical and meridional resolution is used to examine the sensitivity of orographically forced (primarily by Himalayas) stationary waves at middle and high latitudes to variations in the basic state zonal wind distribution. We find relatively little sensitivity to the winds in high latitudes, but remarkable sensitivity to small variations in the subtropical jet. Fluctuations well within the range of observed variability in the jet can lead to large variations in the stationary waves of the high latitude stratosphere, and to large changes even in tropospheric stationary waves. Implications for both sudden warmings and large-scale weather are discussed.

Nigam, Sumant↗

The role of diabatic heating in maintaining the upper-tropospheric baroclinic zone in the South Pacific

The four-dimensional structure of a region that encompasses the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is presently examined using a modified set of FGGE level III-b analyses, during the January 10-18, 1979 period when two cyclones formed in the tropics and propagated southeastward along the SPCZ to middle latitudes. An effort is made to ascertain the significance of kinematic and thermodynamic processes in maintaining the the upper baroclinic region coincident with the subtropical jet. A partitioned form of the frontogenetical function, used to diagnose the adiabatic and diabatic contributions to the maintenance of baroclinicity in the SPCZ's vicinity, indicates a major balance between the frontogenetical contribution by differential diabatic heating and the opposing diabatic tilting processes.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

The role of diabatic heating in maintaining the upper-tropospheric baroclinic zone in the South Pacific

The four-dimensional structure of the region in the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) during January 10-18, 1979 is studied using a modified set of ECMWF FGGE level III-b analyses. The effects of kinematic and thermodynamic processes on maintaining the upper baroclinic region corresponding with the subtropical jet are analyzed. The role of adiabatic and diabatic processes in the maintenance of baroclinicity in the area of the SPCZ is examined using the frontogenetical function. It is observed that the processes affecting the evolution of baroclinicity in the SPCZ region differ from those in the middle latitude; possible reasons for these differences are proposed.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Evidence for asymmetric inertial instability in the FIRE satellite dataset

One of the main goals of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) is obtaining the basic knowledge to better interpret satellite image of clouds on regional and smaller scales. An analysis of a mesoscale circulation phenomenon as observed in hourly FIRE satellite images is presented. Specifically, the phenomenon of interest appeared on satellite images as a group of propagating cloud wavelets located on the edge of a cirrus canopy on the anticylonic side of a strong, upper-level subtropical jet. These wavelets, which were observed between 1300 and 2200 GMT on 25 February 1987, are seen most distinctly in the GOES-West infrared satellite picture at 1800 GMT. The purpose is to document that these wavelets were a manifestation of asymmetric inertial instability. During their lifetime, the wavelets were located over the North American synoptic sounding network, so that the meteorological conditions surrounding their occurrence could be examined. A particular emphasis of the analysis is on the jet streak in which the wavelets were imbedded. The characteristics of the wavelets are examined using hourly satellite imagery. The hypothesis that inertial instability is the dynamical mechanism responsible for generating the observed cloud wavelets was examined. To further substantiate this contention, the observed characteristics of the wavelets are compared to, and found to be consistent with, a theoretical model of inertia instability by Stevens and Ciesielski.

Stevens, Duane E.↗

South Pacific convergence zone and global scale circulations (Jul. 1987 - Jul. 1991). Observational and modeling studies of heat, moisture, precipitation, and global-scale circulation patterns (Jul. 1990 - Jul. 1993)

Several research projects were worked on between August 1990 and May 1991. Topics covered included observational and modeling studies of relationships between tropical heat sources and subtropical jet streams, the intraseasonal (30 to 60 day) oscillation near the equator, and precipitation over tropical oceans. Current research activities and plans for the coming year are outlined.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

Low-frequency intraseasonal tropical-extratropical interactions

Using seven years (1981-1987) of ECMWF initialized analyses, the low-frequency (20-70 day) intraseasonal variability during Northern Hemisphere winter is examined, with emphasis on the zonal wind variability in the Pacific sector and on its relationship to the tropical convection and the middle-altitude wave propagation. Particular consideration is given to changes in the propagation characteristics associated with variations in the subtropical jet and the implications for low-frequency variability in middle latitudes. Also investigated is the relationship between the Pacific sector u-wind fluctuations and tropical convection anomalies.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

Zonal contributions to global momentum variations on intraseasonal through interannual time scales

The variability in a 13-year time series of daily values of the relative angular momentum of the atmosphere (M) is separated into three frequency bands: intraseasonal, seasonal, and interannual. Two methods are used to achieve this separation, and the amount of variance attributable to intraseasonal fluctuations, in particular, is sensitive to the choice made. Seasonal time scales clearly dominate the global momentum series; included in this frequency band is a notable dip in the series early in almost every calendar year. To localize the sources of the frequency band-dependent fluctuations in M, the data were decomposed into series of angular momentum values within each of 46 equal-area zonal belts over the globe and covariances were formed between these belt series and M. Seasonal variations in M represent the residual of opposing contributions from the subtropical jets of the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres. Both intraseasonal and interannual variations in M result mostly from behavior in the tropics.

Rosen, Richard D.↗

Observational and modeling studies of heat, moisture, precipitation, and global-scale circulation patterns

The research sponsored by this grant is a continuation and an extension of the work conducted under a previous contract, 'South Pacific Convergence Zone and Global-Scale Circulations'. In the prior work, we conducted a detailed investigation of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ), and documented many of its significant features and characteristics. We also conducted studies of its interaction with global-scale circulation features through the use of both observational and modeling studies. The latter was accomplished toward the end of the contract when Dr. James Hurrell, then a Ph.D. candidate, successfully ported the NASA GLA general circulation model (GCM) to Purdue University. In our present grant, we have expanded our previous research to include studies of other convectively-driven circulation systems in the tropics besides the SPCZ. Furthermore, we have continued to examine the relationship between these convective systems and global-scale circulation patterns. Our recent research efforts have focused on three objectives: (1) determining the periodicity of large-scale bands of organized convection in the tropics, primarily synoptic to intraseasonal time scales in the Southern Hemisphere; (2) examining the relative importance of tropical versus mid-latitude forcing for Southern Hemisphere summertime subtropical jets, particularly over the Pacific Ocean; and (3) estimating tropical precipitation, especially over oceans, using observational and budget methods. A summary list of our most significant accomplishments in the past year is given.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

A simulation of the Cerro Hudson SO2 cloud

An isentropic trajectory model is used to simulate the evolution of the southern hemisphere SO2 cloud associated with the eruption of Cerro Hudson. By matching the parcel trajectories with total ozone mapping spectrometer SO2 retrievals, the principal stratospheric injection region is determined to be between 11 and 16 km in altitude. This region is characterized by weak wind shears and is located just poleward of the subtropical jet in the outer fringe of the stratospheric polar vortex. The lack of wind shear in the injection region explains the slow zonal dispersal of the SO2 cloud which was still clearly observed 19 days after the eruption. The trajectory model simulation of the SO2 cloud shows good agreement with observations for 7 days after the eruption. Using the potential vorticity and potential temperature estimates of the initial eruption cloud, the cloud position relative to the polar night jet is shown to be nearly fixed up to September 2, 1991, which was as long as the cloud was observed. This result suggests that the lower stratospheric polar and midlatitude regions are nearly isolated from each other during the late August period.

Schoeberl, Mark R.↗

Baroclinic neutrality and the tropopause

It is noted that the atmosphere has a baroclinically neutral state that permits strong temperature gradients at the ground. In this state, the concentrated potential vorticity gradient at the ground is separated from the concentrated potential vorticity gradient at the tropopause by a region where the potential vorticity gradient is zero. The resulting basic state is analogous to the basic state in the Eady problem. A minimum meridional wavenumber is established by the width of the subtropical jet, and neutrality is established by moving the tropopause to a sufficient height so that the total wavenumber corresponds to the short-wave cutoff in the Eady problem. The resulting height is approximately the observed tropopause height.

Lindzen, Richard S.↗

Examination of the observed synoptic scale cirrus cloud environment: The December 3-6 FIRE cirrus case study

Recently, Sassen provided evidence for supercooled water droplets in cirrus uncinus cell heads at temperatures between 40 and -50 C. Chemistry related to volcanic aerosol of stratospheric origin was evoked as an explanation for this phenomenon. Sassen speculated that injections of sulfuric acid droplets into the upper troposphere were accomplished by tropopause folds associated with subtropical jet streams. He also postulated global climatic perturbations due to the effect of these cirrus microphysical perturbations on radiative fluxes. Using data processing and objective analysis techniques described by Mace and Ackerman, the synoptic scale environment was examined for evidence of tropopause folds that may have served as a source mechanism of stratospheric aerosol in the upper troposphere.

Mace, Gerald G.↗

Diagnostic budgets of analyzed and modelled tropical plumes

Blackwell et al. successfully simulated tropical plumes in a global barotropic model valid at 200 mb. The plume evolved in response to strong equatorial convergence which simulated a surge in the Walker Circulation. The defining characteristics of simulated plumes are: a subtropical jet with southerlies emanating from the deep tropics; a tropical/mid-latitude trough to the west; a convergence/divergence dipole straddling the trough; and strong cross contour flow at the tropical base of the jet. Diagnostic budgets of vorticity, divergence, and kinetic energy are calculated to explain the evolution of the modelled plumes. Budgets describe the unforced (basic) state, forced plumes, forced cases with no plumes, and ECMWF analyzed plumes.

Mcguirk, James P.↗

Observational and modeling studies of heat, moisture, precipitation and global-scale circulation patterns

This research grant was a revised version of an original proposal. The period of the grant was for three years with a six-month no-cost extension; thus, it was from 20 July 1990 to 19 January 1994. The objectives of the grant were to identify periods and locations of active convection centers, primarily over the Southern Hemisphere tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans; determine reasons for any periodic behavior found in the first objective; identify cases where subtropical jets over the South Pacific persisted for several days and examine the influences of tropical versus extra-tropical mechanisms in maintaining them; obtain estimates of precipitation by Q(sub 1) and Q(sub 2) budgets, including the importance of terms in each of the respective budgets, and compare these estimates to those obtained by other methods; and diagnose the distributions of moisture and precipitable water over the North Atlantic Ocean using routine analyses and satellite microwave data. To accomplish these objectives, we used grant funds to purchase several data sets, including the Global Precipitation Climate Project (GPCP) observations of station precipitation, ECMWF WCRP/TOGA archive two analyses for January 1985 - December 1990, ECMWF WMO analyses for January 1980 - December 1987, and OLR data for July 1974 - December 1991. We already had some SSM/I data and GLA analyses from a previous grant. In addition, to improve our computing power, we also used grant funds to purchase an IBM PS/2 with accessories, a NEC laser jet printer, and a microcomputer system for word processing. This report is organized as follows. Our research team is listed first. Section two contains a summary of our significant accomplishments; however, a detailed discussion of research results is not included since this information can be found in the accompanying reprints and preprints. Section three offers some concluding remarks, and a complete bibliographic summary is given in Section four.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗