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NASA NTRS1992

Predicting Mission Success in Small Satellite Missions

In our global society with its increasing international competition and tighter financial resources, governments, commercial entities and other organizations are becoming critically aware of the need to ensure that space missions can be achieved on time and within budget. This has become particularly true for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Office of Space Science (OSS) which has developed their Discovery and Explorer programs to meet this need. As technologies advance, space missions are becoming smaller and more capable than their predecessors. The ability to predict the mission success of these small satellite missions is critical to the continued achievement of NASA science mission objectives. The NASA Office of Space Science, in cooperation with the NASA Langley Research Center, has implemented a process to predict the likely success of missions proposed to its Discovery and Explorer Programs. This process is becoming the basis for predicting mission success in many other NASA programs as well. This paper describes the process, methodology, tools and synthesis techniques used to predict mission success for this class of mission.

Saunders, Mark↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Vendian-Cambrian boundary succession from the northwestern margin of the Siberian Platform: stratigraphy, palaeontology, chemostratigraphy and correlation

Siberia contains several key reference sections for studies of biological and environmental evolution across the Proterozoic-Phanerozoic transition. The Platonovskaya Formation, exposed in the Turukhansk region of western Siberia, is an uppermost Proterozoic to Cambrian succession whose trace and body fossils place broad limits on the age of deposition, but do not permit detailed correlation with boundary successions elsewhere. In contrast, a striking negative carbon isotopic excursion in the lower part of the Platonovskaya Formation permits precise chemostratigraphic correlation with upper-most Yudomian successions in Siberia, and possibly worldwide. In addition to providing a tool for correlation, the isotopic excursion preserved in the Platonovskaya and contemporaneous successions documents a major biogeochemical event, likely involving the world ocean. The excursion coincides with the palaeontological breakpoint between Ediacaran- and Cambrian-style assemblages, suggesting a role for biogeochemical change in evolutionary events near the Proterozoic Cambrian boundary.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2006

Integrating International Engineering Organizations For Successful ISS Operations

The International Space Station (ISS) is a multinational orbiting space laboratory that is built in cooperation with 16 nations. The design and sustaining engineering expertise is spread worldwide. As the number of Partners with orbiting elements on the ISS grows, the challenge NASA is facing as the ISS integrator is to ensure that engineering expertise and data are accessible in a timely fashion to ensure ongoing operations and mission success. Integrating international engineering teams requires definition and agreement on common processes and responsibilities, joint training and the emergence of a unique engineering team culture. ISS engineers face daunting logistical and political challenges regarding data sharing requirements. To assure systematic information sharing and anomaly resolution of integrated anomalies, the ISS Partners are developing multi-lateral engineering interface procedures. Data sharing and individual responsibility are key aspects of this plan. This paper describes several examples of successful multilateral anomaly resolution. These successes were used to form the framework of the Partner to Partner engineering interface procedures, and this paper describes those currently documented multilateral engineering processes. Furthermore, it addresses the challenges experienced to date, and the forward work expected in establishing a successful working relationship with Partners as their hardware is launched.

Blome, Elizabeth↗

NASA NTRS2010

Mission Operations Directorate - Success Legacy of the Space Shuttle Program

In support of the Space Shuttle Program, as well as NASA's other human space flight programs, the Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center has become the world leader in human spaceflight operations. From the earliest programs - Mercury, Gemini, Apollo - through Skylab, Shuttle, ISS, and our Exploration initiatives, MOD and its predecessors have pioneered ops concepts and emphasized a history of mission leadership which has added value, maximized mission success, and built on continual improvement of the capabilities to become more efficient and effective. MOD's focus on building and contributing value with diverse teams has been key to their successes both with the US space industry and the broader international community. Since their beginning, MOD has consistently demonstrated their ability to evolve and respond to an ever changing environment, effectively prepare for the expected and successfully respond to the unexpected, and develop leaders, expertise, and a culture that has led to mission and Program success.

Azbell, Jim↗

NASA NTRS2011

Mission Operations Directorate - Success Legacy of the Space Shuttle Program

In support of the Space Shuttle Program, as well as NASA s other human space flight programs, the Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center has become the world leader in human spaceflight operations. From the earliest programs - Mercury, Gemini, Apollo - through Skylab, Shuttle, ISS, and our Exploration initiatives, MOD and its predecessors have pioneered ops concepts and emphasized a history of mission leadership which has added value, maximized mission success, and built on continual improvement of the capabilities to become more efficient and effective. MOD s focus on building and contributing value with diverse teams has been key to their successes both with the US space industry and the broader international community. Since their beginning, MOD has consistently demonstrated their ability to evolve and respond to an ever changing environment, effectively prepare for the expected and successfully respond to the unexpected, and develop leaders, expertise, and a culture that has led to mission and Program success.

Azbell, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Assessing the Success of Postfire Reseeding in Semiarid Rangelands Using Terra MODIS

Successful postfire reseeding efforts can aid rangeland ecosystem recovery by rapidly establishing a desired plant community and thereby reducing the likelihood of infestation by invasive plants. Although the success of postfire remediation is critical, few efforts have been made to leverage existing geospatial technologies to develop methodologies to assess reseeding success following a fire. In this study, Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data were used to improve the capacity to assess postfire reseeding rehabilitation efforts, with particular emphasis on the semiarid rangelands of Idaho. Analysis of MODIS data demonstrated a positive effect of reseeding on rangeland ecosystem recovery, as well as differences in vegetation between reseeded areas and burned areas where no reseeding had occurred (P,0.05). We conclude that MODIS provides useful data to assess the success of postfire reseeding.

wildfire↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Value of Successful MBSE Adoption

The value of successful adoption of Model Based System Engineering (MBSE) practices is hard to quantify. Most engineers and project managers look at the success in terms of cost. But there are other ways to quantify the value of MBSE and the steps necessary to achieve adoption. The Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been doing Model-Based Engineering (design, structural, etc.) for years, but the system engineering side has not. Since 2010, GRC has been moving from documents centric to MBSE/SysML. Project adoption of MBSE has been slow, but is steadily increasing in both MBSE usage and complexity of generated products. Sharing of knowledge of lessons learned in the implementation of MBSE/SysML is key for others who want to be successful. Along with GRC's implementation, NASA is working hard to increase the successful implementation of MBSE across all the other centers by developing guidelines, templates and libraries for projects to utilize. This presentation will provide insight into recent GRC and NASA adoption efforts, lessons learned and best practices.

MBSE↗

NASA NTRS2018

Optimization of Second Fault Detection Thresholds to Maximize Mission Probability of Success

In order to support manned spaceflight safety requirements, the Space Launch System (SLS) has defined program-level requirements for key systems to ensure successful operation under single fault conditions. The SLS program has also levied requirements relating to the capability of the Inertial Navigation System to detect a second fault. This detection functionality is required in order to feed abort analysis and ensure crew safety. Increases in navigation state error due to sensor faults in a purely inertial system can drive the vehicle outside of its operational as-designed environmental and performance envelope. As this performance outside of first fault detections is defined and controlled at the vehicle level, it allows for the use of system level margins to increase probability of mission success on the operational edges of the design. A top-down approach is utilized to assess vehicle sensitivity to second sensor faults. A wide range of failure scenarios in terms of both fault magnitude and time is used for assessment. The approach also utilizes a schedule to change fault detection thresholds autonomously. These individual values are optimized along a nominal trajectory in order to maximize probability of mission success in terms of system-level insertion requirements while minimizing the probability of false positives. This paper will describe an approach integrating Genetic Algorithms and Monte Carlo analysis to tune the threshold parameters to maximize vehicle resilience to second fault events over an ascent mission profile. The analysis approach and performance assessment and verification will be presented to demonstrate the applicability of this approach to second fault detection optimization to maximize mission probability of success through taking advantage of existing margin.

Anzalone, Evan J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Trusted Communication: Utilizing Speech Communication to Enhance Human-Machine Teaming Success

An area of increasing interest for the next generation of aircraft is autonomy and the integration of increasingly autonomous systems into the national airspace. Such an integration requires humans to work closely with autonomous systems, forming teams. Our hypothesis is that a team composed of both humans and autonomous systems will operate better than either entity alone. We have existing procedures for certifying pilots to operate in the national airspace and are currently working on methods for validating the function of autonomous systems, however we have no method in place for assessing the interaction of these two disparate systems. Communication is one avenue. This paper will examine the use of language as a metric for ascertaining human-machine teaming effectiveness. A proof-of-concept of the application of two communication-based analysis techniques, Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) and Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA), for the prediction of success in human/chatbot teaming was conducted. By running these analyses over data from the 2014 and 2015 Loebner Prize competitions of human/chatbot teaming, numerical scores were obtained that can be associated with scores provided by human judges during the competition. Correlating their LIWC and LSA data with the scores provided by the judges, and using linear regression over this correlation, formulae were obtained that predict the score of human/chatbot interaction. These formulae were tested over the 2013 Loebner Prize transcripts, determining that, though there was strong correlation between predicted and actual scores, the predictive success of this method was not strong. However, with specialized topic spaces and lexica, as well as larger data sets, the predictive power of these metrics will improve. Given the importance of providing metrics for human-machine system team success and given the promise shown by the communication-basedLIWCand LSAmethods, continuing research in this area is necessary. After examining the potential for using communication and spoken language as a metric for the success of human/autonomous system teaming, this paper then examines aspects inherent to communication systems that may contribute to unreliability and reduced trust. Modern natural language processing tools rely on deep learning algorithms to create language rules that produce accurate results, but these rules are uninterpretable. The resulting blackbox system lacks transparency necessary for full validation and complete trust. Additionally, speech-based interfaces pose other difficulties to developing coordinated teamwork between humans and autonomous systems. Human communication is infrequently limited to speech only, instead usually relying on a combination of verbal, gestural, and general body language communication. Reducing an analysis of team effectiveness to a study of spoken language alone is problematic as it leaves these other equally important forms of communication out. This paper will examine these problems and the general deficiencies in speech-based metrics for human-machine teaming.

E L Meszaros↗

NASA NTRS2022

Henrich Focke —Inventor of the First Successful Helicopter

In 1924, Henrich Focke, Georg Wulf and Dr. Werner Naumann started Focke-Wulf Flugzeugbau GmbH (Focke-Wulf Aircraft Manufacturing Ltd.). Focke-Wulf constructed Juan de la Cierva’s C.19 and C.30 Autogiros under license from 1930 until 1937. This led Focke to design the first successful and fully controllable helicopter, the Fw-61. Model tests in his wind tunnel supported the configuration and in 1932 Focke proposed a helicopter project to the ministry with drawings and calculations, which was granted in that same year. Impressed with the success of the Fw-61, the German Air Ministry suggested that Focke establish a new company dedicated to helicopter development and issued him a requirement for an improved design, capable of carrying a 700 kg (1,500 lbs) payload. Focke and Gerd Achgelis (a test pilot) partnered to establish the Focke–Achgelis company in 1938. The Fw-61 became the Fa-61. Historically, Henrich Focke and his Focke-Achgelis company must surely be considered as the developer of the world’s first successful helicopter. They began development of the Focke Wulf company’s Model Fw-61 helicopter, which had a side-by-side rotor system, in 1932. First flight was achieved on June 26, 1936 with test pilot Ewald Rohlfs at the controls. With the Fw-61’s flight demonstrated success, Professor Focke went on to present three early papers: 1. Das Trag- und Hubschrauberproblem (Autogyro and Helicopter Problems), November 1937 2. Forschung und Entwicklung der Drehflügelflugzeuge (Research and Development of Rotating Wing Aircraft), April 1942 3. Fortschritte des Hubschraubers (Progress of the Helicopter), October 1943 The first paper was also published by the German Museum (Munich) in 1938 and it was translated into English on the order of the Ministry of Aircraft Production by J. Helledoren as R.T.P No. 2128 at the end of 1937. The other two reports, however, appear not to have been translated during or after World War II and thus are made public here – probably for the first time. Translations of the three Focke papers are provided in this report. A careful translation from German to English of the papers has been made. Many of original photos have been recovered from the German Museum (Munich). In several cases, the original graphs have been redrawn to enhance each paper’s technical value. The editors have added footnotes where appropriate. The editors consider Focke’s papers to be of such immense technical and historical value that they deserve wide distribution to the rotorcraft industry. Finally, the editors believe that readers of the many technical points Henrich Focke makes about his development program will see that Focke’s program anticipated even today’s best rotorcraft industry efforts.

Inventor↗

DOE OSTI2020

Waste Management Project Success - Regulatory Assurance Systems - 20118

Waste management (WM) and remediation projects are essential within a restorative environmental culture. Despite years of experience, challenges and obstacles associated with efficient and effective WM project execution remain. Although some obstacles are project specific, a common challenge is navigating the regulatory landscape from planning through execution, particularly with first of a kind (FOAK) and first in a while (FIAW) projects. The absence of a comprehensive regulatory assurance strategy places significant hurdles in the path of project success. To clear a path for the successful execution of increasingly complex WM projects, this paper focuses on development of a comprehensive regulatory assurance strategy and implementation plan that effectively engages stakeholders, agencies, and performers to produce project plans that fully and cost effectively integrate applicable regulatory requirements. The most reliable way to align regulatory processes and decisions needed for mission success is through a regulatory assurance system. This system establishes a healthy interface with regulatory decision makers, to work in a collaborative manner, to create a common vision for regulatory decisions on an agreed upon schedule. A regulatory assurance system consists of several elements. Although the mission may vary from cleanup to site closure to nuclear component production, the elements of a regulatory assurance system remain essentially constant and must include: 1) identifying a common vision or end state, 2) developing a long-term, integrated strategy and schedule, 3) establishing a regulatory partnering team consisting of key decision-makers, 4) regular and frequent communication with decision-makers, 5) ensuring consistent surveillance for early identification of issues and changes that may impact the project, 6) quick resolution of emerging issues to prevent schedule impact, 7) identifying core compliance functions, 8) periodically assessing progress of the project as it relates to regulatory assurance and, 9) providing constructive feedback to improve the process. A regulatory assurance system provides a living, multi-faceted approach to planning, visioning, communicating and tracking to avoid surprises and ensure smooth and timely progress to the project. The overall success measures will be whether the system produces common sense regulatory decisions supporting the vision on time without appeal. Effective regulatory frameworks rarely happen on their own. Balanced, common-sense regulatory decisions stem from teams that are trained to work together to achieve shared goals. In this paper, particular attention is placed on the importance of starting with a shared vision for a regulatory assurance and execution strategy that leverages experience to establish optimal approaches. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2015

Success Factors in Human Space Programs - Why Did Apollo Succeed Better Than Later Programs?

The Apollo Program reached the moon, but the Constellation Program (CxP) that planned to return to the moon and go on to Mars was cancelled. Apollo is NASA's greatest achievement but its success is poorly understood. The usual explanation is that President Kennedy announced we were going to the moon, the scientific community and the public strongly supported it, and Congress provided the necessary funding. This is partially incorrect and does not actually explain Apollo's success. The scientific community and the public did not support Apollo. Like Apollo, Constellation was announced by a president and funded by Congress, with elements that continued on even after it was cancelled. Two other factors account for Apollo's success. Initially, the surprise event of Uri Gagarin's first human space flight created political distress and a strong desire for the government to dramatically demonstrate American space capability. Options were considered and Apollo was found to be most effective and technically feasible. Political necessity overrode both the lack of popular and scientific support and the extremely high cost and risk. Other NASA human space programs were either canceled, such as the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI), repeatedly threatened with cancellation, such as International Space Station (ISS), or terminated while still operational, such as the space shuttle and even Apollo itself. Large crash programs such as Apollo are initiated and continued if and only if urgent political necessity produces the necessary political will. They succeed if and only if they are technically feasible within the provided resources. Future human space missions will probably require gradual step-by-step development in a more normal environment.

Success factors↗

DOE OSTI2022

Abundance and Migration Success of Overshoot Steelhead in the Upper Columbia River

Abstract Summer steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss may enter freshwater almost a year before spawning and potentially make long migrations (>1,000 km) to interior headwater habitats. However, in response to suboptimal freshwater habitat conditions (e.g., warmer water temperatures), adult summer steelhead may exhibit complex behaviors during upstream migration in the Columbia River basin. Steelhead may migrate upstream of their natal tributary (hereafter, referred to as “overshoot”) and spend days to several months before subsequently migrating downstream (hereafter, referred to as “fallback”) to their natal tributary to spawn. An expansion of an existing Bayesian patch occupancy model, derived from observations of adult steelhead that were PIT-tagged to estimate population-specific abundance upstream of the tagging location, incorporated downstream detection locations to estimate the abundance of overshoot fallbacks. Overshoot steelhead abundance at the tagging location was estimated based on the relationship between the number of known overshoot fallbacks (i.e., the number of steelhead that overshot and successfully migrated downstream to their natal tributary) and their model-estimated abundance. During the study period (2010–2017), the annual mean proportion of overshoot steelhead that successfully migrated downstream of the tagging location (Priest Rapids Dam) was 0.59 (SD = 0.14). The number of dams encountered by overshoot steelhead during their downstream migration was negatively correlated with their downstream migration success probability. Improved downstream passage survival for adult steelhead will increase the abundance of affected populations while reducing potential genetic introgression of upstream populations (i.e., strays). This is the first study to estimate the abundance of overshoot and fallback steelhead, providing the data necessary for scientists to estimate potential conservation benefits of improved downstream survival. For example, surface flow passage routes (e.g., sluiceways and temporary spillway weirs) are very effective in guiding and passing adult steelhead downstream of Columbia River hydroelectric projects and data from this assessment show that changes in dam operations throughout the downstream migration period may maximize conservation benefits.

Murdoch, Andrew R. (ORCID:0000000324827689)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Achievements and Lessons Learned From Successful Small Satellite Missions for Space Weather‐Oriented Research

Abstract When the first CubeSats were launched nearly two decades ago, few people believed that the miniature satellites would likely prove to be a useful scientific tool. Skeptics abounded. However, the last decade has seen the highly successful implementation of space missions that make creative and innovative use of fast‐advancing CubeSat and small satellite technology to carry out important science experiments and missions. Several projects now have used CubeSats to obtain first‐of‐their‐kind observations and findings that have formed the basis for high‐profile engineering and science publications, thereby establishing without doubt the scientific value and broad utility of CubeSats. In this paper, we describe recent achievements and lessons learned from a representative selection of successful CubeSat missions with a space weather focus. We conclude that these missions were successful in part because their limited resources promoted not only mission focus but also appropriate risk‐taking for comparatively high science return. Quantitative analysis of refereed publications from these CubeSat missions and several larger missions reveals that mission outcome metrics compare favorably when publication number is normalized by mission cost or if expressed as a weighted net scientific impact of all mission publications.

Spence, Harlan E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Learning to Predict and Improve Build Successes in Package Ecosystems

Software has become increasingly complex, with a typical application depending on tens or hundreds of packages. Finding compatible versions and build configurations of these packages is challenging. This paper presents a method to learn the likelihood of software build success, and techniques for leveraging this information to guide dependency solvers to better software configurations. We leverage the heavily parameterized package recipes from the Spack package manager to produce a training data set of builds, and we use Graph Neural Networks to learn whether a given package configuration will build successfully or not. We apply our tool to the U.S. Exascale Computing Project’s software stack. We demonstrate its effectiveness in predicting whether a given package will build successfully. We show that our technique can be used to improve the solutions generated by dependency solvers, reducing the need for developers to find working builds by trial and error.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1986

Success potential of automated star pattern recognition

A quasi-analytical model is presented for calculating the success probability of automated star pattern recognition systems for attitude control of spacecraft. The star data is gathered by an imaging star tracker (STR) with a circular FOV capable of detecting 20 stars. The success potential is evaluated in terms of the equivalent diameters of the FOV and the target star area ('uniqueness area'). Recognition is carried out as a function of the position and brightness of selected stars in an area around each guide star. The success of the system is dependent on the resultant pointing error, and is calculated by generating a probability distribution of reaching a threshold probability of an unacceptable pointing error. The method yields data which are equivalent to data available with Monte Carlo simulatins. When applied to the recognition system intended for use on the Space IR Telescope Facility it is shown that acceptable pointing, to a level of nearly 100 percent certainty, can be obtained using a single star tracker and about 4000 guide stars.

Van Bezooijen, R. W. H.↗

NASA NTRS1991

On the Concept of Varying Influence Radii for a Successive Corrections Objective Analysis

There has been a long standing concept by those who use successive corrections objective analysis that the way to obtain the most accurate objective analysis is first, to analyze for the long wavelengths and then to build in the details of the shorter wavelengths by successively decreasing the influence of the more distant observations upon the interpolated values. Using the Barnes method, the filter characteristics were compared for families of response curves that pass through a common point at a reference wavelength. It was found that the filter cutoff is a maximum if the filter parameters that determine the influence of observations are unchanged for both the initial and corrections passes. This information was used to define and test the following hypothesis. If accuracy is defined by how well the method retains desired wavelengths and removes undesired wavelengths, then the Barnes method gives the most accurate analyses if the filter parameter on the initial and corrections passes are the same. This hypothesis does not follow the usual conceptual approach to successive corrections analysis.

Achtemeier, Gary L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Mass storage: The key to success in high performance computing

There are numerous High Performance Computing & Communications Initiatives in the world today. All are determined to help solve some 'Grand Challenges' type of problem, but each appears to be dominated by the pursuit of higher and higher levels of CPU performance and interconnection bandwidth as the approach to success, without any regard to the impact of Mass Storage. My colleagues and I at Data Storage Technologies believe that all will have their performance against their goals ultimately measured by their ability to efficiently store and retrieve the 'deluge of data' created by end-users who will be using these systems to solve Scientific Grand Challenges problems, and that the issue of Mass Storage will become then the determinant of success or failure in achieving each projects goals. In today's world of High Performance Computing and Communications (HPCC), the critical path to success in solving problems can only be traveled by designing and implementing Mass Storage Systems capable of storing and manipulating the truly 'massive' amounts of data associated with solving these challenges. Within my presentation I will explore this critical issue and hypothesize solutions to this problem.

Lee, Richard R.↗