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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗

Charging Hub Scenario Sheet Screenshot

The Excel-based CHECT tool estimates the LCOC ($/kWh) by charger type (Level 1, Level 2, and DC fast charging) for a given charging hub scenario. CHECT requires users to input certain charging hub scenario parameters, including the number of chargers, daily utilization, and charger replacement frequency by charger type. Additional inputs such as the charging schedule, local utility rates, capital/operational costs, and financial inputs can be customized by the user, or the tool can generate results using appropriate default values from literature for the charging hub scenario and service location(s). Using the above inputs, CHECT performs a robust techno-economic analysis to generate the LCOC by charger type, broken down by cost category (e.g., capital, operational, utility, taxes) for various combinations of charging hub types (multiunit dwelling or public) and ownership models (residential, utility, or private company). It also outputs the annual discounted cash flows and determines the most sensitive input variables. In addition, the tool allows users to easily compare the LCOC across various ownership models or across different states.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Green Methanol via an Integrated Direct Air Capture, CO 2 Electrolyzer, and Hydrogenation Reactor

This project pioneered a groundbreaking reactor design to produce green methanol by harnessing the electrochemical CO 2 reduction reaction (eCO 2 RR), a cornerstone of power-to-fuels technology. The effort integrated three innovative technologies to achieve carbon-neutral methanol production at a target cost of under $\$$800/ton: 1. Direct Air Capture (DAC): Using a cutting-edge sorbent material developed at Holocene, scalable models were developed to integrate captured atmospheric CO₂ into the reactor system. 2. Intermediate-Temperature CO 2 Electrolyzer: Developed by the University of Tennessee (UTK), this electrolyzer utilizes a cost-effective, proton-conducting solid acid electrolyte (CsH 2 PO 4 , CDP) and a mixed-metal oxide cathode. It achieves high faradaic efficiencies (>98%) by effectively suppressing hydrogen evolution at high current densities, converting CO 2 to CO with remarkable selectivity. 3. Catalysis and Reactor Engineering: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) contributed world-class expertise in heterogeneous catalysis and reactor design. Their advanced ASPEN modeling drove systems integration and supported techno-economic and life cycle analyses. This effort was further bolstered by partnerships with industry leaders Air Company and Plug Power, who provided critical guidance on scaling, systems engineering, and the integration of water electrolyzers into large-scale operations. During Phase 1, the team focused on modeling and validating a lab-scale reactor demonstrating the feasibility of the integrated approach. Key accomplishments include a 52% increase in current density at 0.8 V while maintaining >98% CO faradaic efficiency, successful 10× scale-up of the electrolyzer with performance within 5% of coin-cell results, best-in-class durability (168-hour test at 0.6 V with 0.14 mA/cm 2 -h degradation), validated TEA confirming the $\$$800/ton methanol target, and completed preliminary LCA showing potential for net-negative GHG emissions under renewable energy scenarios.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Geologic Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC) System: Resource Assessment and Techno-Economic Evaluation in Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico's hot, humid climate drives a high and persistent demand for cooling, straining an aging and fuel-dependent energy grid while increasing peak electricity loads. Much of this challenge stems from inefficient air-conditioning systems operating in buildings without passive cooling design, making cooling both costly and vulnerable to disruption - especially during hurricanes. To address these issues, researchers evaluated a new alternative called Geologic Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC), which uses inland wells connected to naturally cold, deep seawater. By avoiding long offshore pipelines and energy-intensive refrigeration cycles, GeoSWAC can cut electricity use by 75-90%, reduce environmental impacts, and operate more reliably during power outages. A case study at the University of Puerto Rico's Rio Piedras campus found that GeoSWAC could deliver significantly lower levelized costs of cooling, reduced operational expenses, and improved water conservation compared to the campus's existing chilled-water plant. The system offers key advantages - including access to a constant cold heat sink, low pumping requirements, and enhanced resilience - for coastal regions such as Puerto Rico, the broader Caribbean, and Florida. However, its effectiveness depends heavily on site-specific geological conditions, such as subsurface connectivity and aquifer characteristics, which require detailed investigation. Future research should refine hydrogeological models, conduct performance and economic analyses, and address regulatory and permitting frameworks to support broader adoption of this promising technology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

High yield production of 3-hydroxypropionic acid using Issatchenkia orientalis

Biomanufacturing provides a more sustainable alternative to fossil-based chemical manufacturing. 3-Hydroxypropionic acid (3HP) is a top Department of Energy value-added chemical and precursor to bioplastics, yet cost-effective microbial production remains elusive. Here, we establish the acid-tolerant yeast Issatchenkia orientalis as a robust host for low-pH 3HP biosynthesis. Genome-scale modeling identifies the β-alanine pathway as optimal, offering the highest theoretical yield and lowest oxygen requirement. Thermodynamic analysis confirms its favorability under acidic conditions. Using sequence similarity network analysis, we discover highly active aspartate 1-decarboxylase (PAND), β-alanine-pyruvate aminotransferase (BAPAT), and 3HP dehydrogenase (YDFG), which significantly improve the pathway efficiency. Next, to further elevate the production, pathway optimization through multi-copy PAND integration, byproduct elimination (knockouts of pyruvate decarboxylase and glycerol-3-phosphate dehydrogenase), and reinforcement of aspartate flux by overexpression of pyruvate carboxylase and aspartate amino transferase improves the titer to 29 g/L in shake flasks. Fed-batch fermentation at pH 4 with low-cost corn steep liquor medium further increases the production to 92 g/L with 0.7 g/g yield and 0.55 g/L/h productivity. Techno-economic analysis indicates that such performance could potentially enable a financially viable process for sustainable acrylic acid production. This work establishes I. orientalis as a next-generation platform for cost-effective 3HP production and paves the way toward industrial commercialization.

Biotechnology↗

Integrated Life Cycle and Techno-Economic Assessments of Central Appalachian Legacy Mine Sites for Biomass Development and Waste Coal Utilization

This project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy – National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL) under award DE-FE0032212, evaluated how legacy coal mine lands and coal refuse piles in Central Appalachia (West Virginia and Pennsylvania) can be reclaimed and repurposed to support biomass development and beneficial utilization of waste coal, with the long-term goal of supporting net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) pathways. The project had two primary objectives: 1. Characterize legacy mine sites (including site conditions, waste coal/refuse resources, and soil/ecosystem indicators) and develop reclamation and best management practices (BMPs) for biomass cultivation; and 2. Conduct integrated machine learning (ML)-assisted life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) to quantify environmental and economic outcomes for multiple biomass and waste-coal utilization pathways. Across West Virginia, the team identified ~625 coal refuse sites covering ~19,705 acres, and developed methods to estimate refuse pile volume using digital elevation models (DEMs) and geospatial workflows. A large subset of sites received volume estimates totaling ~1.6 billion m³.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

SimH 2 : an integrated techno-economic modeling framework for hydrogen pipeline infrastructure and network optimization

Large-scale hydrogen (H 2 ) pipeline transport design and network optimization have seldom been reported due to the lack of a cost model accounting for the relationship between transport cost and hydrogen mass flow rate. Here, this work introduced a system-level cost model for hydrogen pipeline transport at supercritical state and integrated it with an existing CO 2 pipeline network tool, SimCCS, for hydrogen-specific pipeline design and optimization. The Intermountain West (I-West) region of the U.S., historically dependent on fossil fuel-based economies, is chosen to demonstrate the capabilities of our H 2 pipeline cost model and transport network optimization platform called SimH 2 . Two scenarios are examined: one where the pipeline is not allowed to pass through disadvantaged communities and the other where it is permitted. The results highlight that incorporating disadvantaged-community constraints lead to longer pipeline routes and increased transport costs, reflecting the trade-offs involved in equitable infrastructure development. It is demonstrated that the newly developed SimH 2 tool not only enables the efficient design of H 2 transportation pipelines but also optimizes the network by accounting for local terrain and the presence of disadvantaged areas.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Comprehensive assessment of metrology techniques for heliostat efficiency and performance evaluation

Concentrating solar power plants, specifically central receiver type systems and their heliostat field, are struggling with negative reputation in the USA, due to perceived underperformance and reliability issues. This is in part due to a lack of standards for performance assessment as well as overly simplified techno-economical models. A better understanding of influences and losses along the solar radiation path from the sun, across the solar collector to the receiver, increases the fidelity of heliostat efficiency assessment as well as solar field performance predictions. Such data are currently scarce and require a complete set of metrology capabilities to evaluate direct solar irradiance, sun shape, atmospheric attenuation, reflectance, collector shape, slope errors and total beam dispersion. In preparation for establishing a 3rd party metrology platform in collaboration with Sandia National Labs, NLR conducted a scoping study on available metrology. We present an extensive overview of techniques and commercial systems for each category. Our work includes an analysis to increase understanding of strengths and limitations of the many techniques used for surface shape and slope measurement. This applies to a controlled, indoor or outdoor laboratory environment assessing a single heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

An Analysis of Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

Wind power is a growing source of energy generation that relies on complex global atmospheric and earth system processes. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run wind energy models with possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States. Changes in mean annual energy production from 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will change and to what extent system costs can be reduced. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, uncertainty in future wind resources can influence the cost of wind energy nearly as much as uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Heliostat Sizing Methodology for Solar Heat for Industrial Processes

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for industrial process heat (IPH) applications at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550 degrees Celsius. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWhth. Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the levelized cost of heat (LCOH), producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 8 - 12 m2; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats under deployment at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Alcoholysis of nylon 6 waste to ε-caprolactam promoted by phosphoric acid

Nylon 6 is widely used in high-performance materials. However, the inherent structural rigidity of nylon 6 inhibits catalytic depolymerization to its monomer, ε-caprolactam. Here, in this study, we demonstrate an acid-catalyzed alcoholysis process that depolymerizes nylon 6 to ε-caprolactam, achieving yields up to 74% using n-propanol as solvent and phosphoric acid as catalyst at 220°C for 2 h. We further applied the process to commercial nylon-containing products, demonstrating ε-caprolactam yields of 67% to 76%. Process modeling and techno-economic analysis estimated a minimum selling price of recycled nylon 6 at $\$$1.79/kg, 30% lower than the 5-year average market price of virgin nylon 6. These estimates depend on assumed costs and process performance and may vary with future conditions. Life cycle assessment indicated that nylon 6 produced via alcoholysis can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 63% compared with primary production. Overall, this study demonstrates a facile, cost-effective, and environmentally beneficial process for nylon 6 chemical recycling.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1): A New Decision Support Tool for Solar Industrial Process Heat Applications

Solar thermal technologies are a promising technology to supply low-cost thermal energy to industrial processes, but there are often significant barriers to entry to industrial owners considering these technologies for their energy demands. To overcome this barrier and convey economic value to customers, NREL and Sandia National Laboratories developed Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1), a new web-based decision support tool for solar industrial process heat systems. At SolarPACES 2024, the STEP 1 tool was still under development; progress, methodologies, and a preliminary case study was presented. With the STEP 1 tool launch in May 2025, in this work, the initial version of the full public tool will be presented with demonstrations of its capabilities using a few case studies. First, the user's process heat needs such as location, process media (e.g., steam, air), process temperature, land availability, electricity and fuel costs, among other parameters. STEP 1 features a mapping interface that allows users to draw land and roof boundaries. The process media and temperature inform technology selection criteria modules that determine the appropriate solar thermal collection technologies, as well as congruent heat transfer media (e.g., hot water, oil, salt). Once the solar thermal technology selected, its nominal thermal production for the given site is characterized using NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM). Then, a modified version of NREL's REopt optimal sizing and dispatch optimization tool determines cost-optimal sizing. Within minutes, the user receives the results of the technoeconomics analysis, including the size and performance of the cost-optimal solar-plus-storage system. The cost of the system is compared to business-as-usual (e.g., an existing, standalone natural gas boiler). Users can download key results to store for sensitivity analyses. Examples of flat plate collector, parabolic trough, and molten salt tower applications with and without PV hybridization for different industrial facility types are presented in this work. The STEP 1 tool aims to reduce barriers to the adoption of solar heating solutions stemming from a lack of familiarity and technical background with solar system design options and costs among industry stakeholders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Development of a Techno-Economic Analysis Framework for a Solar Thermochemical Fuel Production Process

Synthetic liquid fuels can provide a drop-in substitute for fossil-based fuels in sectors such as aviation and maritime, where electrification is not a viable option due to the need for high specific energy density. However, for these alternative fuels to be adopted at a commercial scale, their price must be competitive compared to their fossil-based counterparts. The reverse water-gas shift (RWGS) reaction offers a promising pathway, using hydrogen (sourced from electrolysis) and carbon dioxide as the feed and reacting to produce syngas - a mixture of H2 and CO at a specific ratio. Syngas is a useful precursor that can be converted into fuels and chemicals via known downstream processes, such as liquid transportation fuels via Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis. The RWGS reaction is currently not applied in commercial scale, unlike the rest of the components in the process chain (electrolyzers and syngas-to-fuel synthesis units). The RWGS reaction poses several challenges due to its restrictive thermodynamics. Being an equimolar reaction, high temperatures and a large excess of H2 are needed to achieve reasonable CO2 conversion at equilibrium. This has detrimental effects on practical process implementation and the quality of syngas that can be produced, with direct effect on the energy and capital requirements, as well as the need for expensive downstream separation. In this work, we are proposing to develop a new concentrating solar thermal (CST) compatible RWGS reactor, performing the reaction in a 2-step chemical looping process using metal oxide at a temperature range of 600-800 degrees Celsius. By decoupling the reactor from the solar receiver, the Generation 3 (Gen3) CST technology could be utilized, together with its proposed thermal energy storage (TES) technology, benefitting from a good match to the required temperatures. CST technology is a viable option for supplying the heat that could be rapidly deployed in scale, thus being a good match to the gas-to-liquid (GTL) process which requires a large minimal scale to be commercially viable. The integration of TES with CST also allows operating the plant at large annual capacity factors and avoids multiple shutdown/startup cycles, thus fitting into the steady-state operation mode that most GTL processes require. The main innovation in the proposed design hinges on a countercurrent reaction design using a packed bed reactor. In 2019 Metcalfe et al. showed the benefits of countercurrent species exchange could be realized in a redox chemical-looping processes, by storing the favorable countercurrent chemical potential profiles in a packed bed of non-stoichiometric oxide. Metcalfe et al. applied this breakthrough concept to the WGS reaction, which is conventionally a co-feed catalytic process, showing a dramatic improvement. Bulfin et al. (2023) performed a similar proof-of-concept demonstration for the RWGS reaction using CeO2, achieving cumulative and peak CO2 conversions of 88% and 95%, respectively, compared to a thermodynamic limit of 58% for the co-feed catalytic process at the same conditions. In our new REGENLOOP project, we are developing a reactor prototype from the heat-exchange packed bed reactor-type, a commonly used reactor in the chemical industry. The endothermic heat of reduction will be supplied to the reactor using CST, while the same heat transfer fluid (HTF) mechanism will be used to extract the exothermic heat of oxidation. An array of multiple reactors is used to supply constant high-purity CO stream, that is then mixed with H2 from electrolysis to produce a high-purity syngas at the required composition. By removing the CO-CO2 separation after the RWGS process, significant energy and cost reduction can be achieved. A physics-based TEA framework is currently being developed, covering all the major plant processes, from the solar collection through storage, chemical looping RWGS, GTL, and auxiliary unit operations, up to the liquid hydrocarbon product. This modeling framework will utilize reduced-order models for the chemical looping RWGS and TES, CST modeling using SolarPILOT, and Aspen Plus for the GTL. By using this combined physics-based approach, the effects of design/operating parameters on the performance and cost can be elucidated. In our presentation, the modeling framework will be presented in detail, including preliminary cost predictions of using this plant configuration under a few selected relevant case studies. This study will be used to identify the major cost drivers, informing further system design and optimization needed to chart the way for a commercially viable pathway.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Roadmap to Advance Heliostat Technologies for High Temperature Solar-Thermal Systems

Since its establishment, the Heliostat Consortium (HelioCon) has made substantial progress toward closing many of the gaps in concentrating solar power (CSP) research. Numerous techno-economic studies have been performed, investigating topics ranging from the trade-off between size and temperature for industrial process heat applications to optimization of the heliostat design itself for various applications. Significant improvements have been made in optical metrology techniques, with first steps toward in situ measurement of heliostat fields. Several standards have been, and continue to be, developed with the coordination of an international group of CSP industry participants. Training programs have been developed, with universities including CSP in their engineering curricula, and many public webinars have been held to provide broad access to the latest CSP research. Improved CSP components such as mirror facets and wireless communication systems have been developed, and the solar tower at Sandia National Laboratories has been upgraded with a testbed for closed-loop controls research and development. Field deployment challenges involving heliostat foundations and sensitive wildlife habitats have been explored, with progress made toward methods for streamlining project development and permitting. Additional knowledge has been added to the body of work on wind behavior of heliostats and arrays of heliostats, with progress made toward a holistic understanding of wind design methods. Finally, techniques have been developed and demonstrated for assessing soiling conditions at a proposed project site, with predictive models for the soiling rate showing good results. Taking these results together, HelioCon has contributed greatly to the global CSP research and development effort over the past several years.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Simulating competition in the US bioeconomy to produce hard‐to‐electrify transportation fuels using limited biomass resources

This study presents a novel bioeconomy optimization framework, BiOpt, designed to address critical questions regarding the strategic use of limited US biomass resources for biofuel production. By integrating detailed techno-economic analyses, life cycle assessments, and resource assessment data, BiOpt optimizes resource distributions across competing technologies to maximize economic performance and/or minimize greenhouse gas emissions. Using feedstock scenarios from the 2023 Billion Ton Study, the analysis explores optimal biomass allocations across sustainable aviation fuel, diesel, and marine biofuel conversion pathways given varying production targets and policy incentives. Results demonstrate distinct feedstock preferences and pathway utilizations when prioritizing economic returns vs. emissions reductions. For instance, fats, oils, and greases were highly favored in cost-optimized scenarios, while low-carbon feedstocks such as wet waste dominated greenhouse gas-minimized strategies. The findings underscore the pivotal role of policy incentives and technological advances in shaping biofuel supply chains and provide actionable insights for scaling sustainable biofuel production to decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors. This framework offers a robust tool for policymakers and stakeholders to evaluate biofuel strategies that balance energy output, economic viability, and environmental impact.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Model-based economic analysis under uncertainty for PFAS treatment by granular activated carbon and ion exchange technologies

Recent drinking water regulations have imposed the need for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) remediation. In response, treatment facilities may be required to retrofit existing treatment schemes to treat PFAS below maximum contaminant levels (MCLs). Adsorption technologies such as granular activated carbon (GAC) and ion exchange (IX) have been demonstrated to be effective; however, there are limited techno-economic metrics available which provide guidance on technology selection and design for diverse PFAS-containing source water conditions. Process systems engineering (PSE) tools which can traditionally perform these analyses are hindered by the data availability, model validity, and understanding of treatment phenomena for emerging contaminants. This work employs published data regressions, statistical models, process models, techno-economic analyses, and other process systems tools in a model-based uncertainty framework to consider the limitations of emerging contaminant research. Through this analysis framework, economic results are provided as probabilistic distributions based on the uncertainty of the models and diverse conditions that treatment facilities experience.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling the PV System Level Economic Impact of PV Connector Failure Modes

Photovoltaic (PV) connectors must maintain mechanical integrity for over 25 years while operating under UV exposure, elevated temperature, and mechanical loading. Connector degradation increases with electrical resistance, leading to energy losses, unplanned downtime, and higher operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and in severe cases, safety risks from overhearing or arcing. Connector related failures remain among the most frequent causes of disruption in utility-scale PV (UPV) systems, yet their lifetime economic impacts are poorly quantified. This work presents a techno-economic analysis (TEA) framework that links identified connector failure modes to system level energy losses and lifetime cost impacts using identified resistance measurements and failure rates from 6,2761 PV connectors inspected. Connector failures increase system level O&M costs, raising LCOE by roughly 5%. Downtime driven availability losses dominate economic impact. Resistance-driven I2R and IV-curve losses are secondary, but remain non-negligible. Thermal damage, bend-radius violations, and loose connections drive the majority of LCOE uplift Improving connector reliability through better installation quality, inspection, and design can meaningfully reduce lost energy, O&M costs, and LCOE.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗