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Social Sciences and Space Exploration

The relationship between technology and society is a subject of continuing interest, because technological change and its effects confront and challenge society. College students are especially interested in technological change, knowing that they must cope with the pervasive and escalating effect of wide-ranging technological change. The space shuttle represents a technological change. The book's role is to serve as a resource for college faculty and students who are or will be interested in the social science implications of space technology. The book is designed to provide introductory material on a variety of space social topics to help faculty and students pursue teaching, learning, and research. Space technologies, perspectives on individual disciplines (economics, history, international law, philosophy, political science, psychology, and sociology) and interdiscipline approaches are presented.

Source record↗

Forward for the new edition of: “What Every Engineer Should Know About Risk Engineering and Management"

In aerospace and engineering in general, the major metrics are capability, cost, and safety/risk. With the increasingly rapid emergence and utilization of new technologies and systems of increasing complexity, ensuring safety becomes more difficult. The technology and practice/applications of safety/risk technologies require updating in concert with capability and systems technology changes. Hence the new, updated edition of this risk engineering book. Major changes in technology and applications, now and going forward, increasingly involve artificial intelligence (AI)/autonomy and complex systems, which are rapidly developing and moving targets when it comes to risk/safety analysis. These introduce both new risks and safety issues, and they alter more usual ones. The current reality is that often the best AI is when it is “Black Boxed”, developed “independently”, without detailed human understanding of how and by what processes decisions and results are produced. There are ongoing efforts to make the AI processes more understandable by humans, with results to be determined. Also, trusted and true autonomy is free of human intervention, which would require machines to ideate to solve in real time issues that arise due to unknown unknowns and even known unknowns. Machines using generative adversarial network (GANs) and other approaches are beginning to ideate. Overall, the capabilities and practice of AI/autonomy utilization is a work in progress with the rate of progress substantial and the impacts upon system risk/safety major.

Dennis M. Bushnell↗

Learning from Automation Surprises and "Going Sour" Accidents: Progress on Human-Centered Automation

Advances in technology and new levels of automation on commercial jet transports has had many effects. There have been positive effects from both an economic and a safety point of view. The technology changes on the flight deck also have had reverberating effects on many other aspects of the aviation system and different aspects of human performance. Operational experience, research investigations, incidents, and occasionally accidents have shown that new and sometimes surprising problems have arisen as well. What are these problems with cockpit automation, and what should we learn from them? Do they represent over-automation or human error? Or instead perhaps there is a third possibility - they represent coordination breakdowns between operators and the automation? Are the problems just a series of small independent glitches revealed by specific accidents or near misses? Do these glitches represent a few small areas where there are cracks to be patched in what is otherwise a record of outstanding designs and systems? Or do these problems provide us with evidence about deeper factors that we need to address if we are to maintain and improve aviation safety in a changing world? How do the reverberations of technology change on the flight deck provide insight into generic issues about developing human-centered technologies and systems (Winograd and Woods, 1997)? Based on a series of investigations of pilot interaction with cockpit automation (Sarter and Woods, 1992; 1994; 1995; 1997a, 1997 b), supplemented by surveys, operational experience and incident data from other studies (e.g., Degani et al., 1995; Eldredge et al., 1991; Tenney et al., 1995; Wiener, 1989), we too have found that the problems that surround crew interaction with automation are more than a series of individual glitches. These difficulties are symptoms that indicate deeper patterns and phenomena concerning human-machine cooperation and paths towards disaster. In addition, we find the same kinds of patterns behind results from studies of physician interaction with computer-based systems in critical care medicine (e.g., Moll van Charante et al., 1993; Obradovich and Woods, 1996; Cook and Woods, 1996). Many of the results and implications of this kind of research are synthesized and discussed in two comprehensive volumes, Billings (1996) and Woods et al. (1994). This paper summarizes the pattern that has emerged from our research, related research, incident reports, and accident investigations. It uses this new understanding of why problems arise to point to new investment strategies that can help us deal with the perceived "human error" problem, make automation more of a team player, and maintain and improve safety.

Woods, David D.↗

Development Challenges of Game-Changing Entry System Technologies from Concept to Mission Infusion

Realization within the US and NASA that future exploration both Human and Robotic will require innovative new technologies led to the creation of the Space Technology Mission Directorate and investment in game changing technologies with high pay-off. Some of these investments will see success and others, due to many of the constraints, will not attain their goal. The co-authors of this proposed presentation have been involved from concept to mission infusion aspects of entry technologies that are game changing. The four example technologies used to describe the challenges experienced along the pathways to success are at different levels of maturity. They are Conformal, 3-D MAT, HEEET and ADEPT. The four examples in many ways capture broad aspects of the challenges of maturation and illustrate what led some to be exceptionally successful and how others had to be altered in order remain viable game changing technologies. Subsystem technologies for robotic and human missions

TPS↗

Development Challenges of Game-Changing Entry System Technologies From Concept to Mission Infusion

Realization within the US and NASA that future exploration both Human and Robotic will require innovative new technologies led to the creation of the Space Technology Mission Directorate and investment in game changing technologies with high pay-off. Some of these investments will see success and others, due to many of the constraints, will not attain their goal. The co-authors of this proposed presentation have been involved from concept to mission infusion aspects of entry technologies that are game changing. The four example technologies used to describe the challenges experienced along the pathways to success are at different levels of maturity. They are Conformal, 3-D MAT, HEEET and ADEPT. The four examples in many ways capture broad aspects of the challenges of maturation and illustrate what led some to be exceptionally successful and how others had to be altered in order remain viable game changing technologies.

Technology↗

Applications of aerospace technology in industry. A technology transfer profile: Cryogenics

Cryogenics is especially interesting when viewed from the perspective of technology transfer. Its recent rapid growth has been due to demands of both industry and aerospace. This environment provides an unusual opportunity to identify some of the forces active during a period of broad technological change and at the same time further the understanding of the technology transfer process. That process is specifically defined here as the ways in which technology, generated in NASA programs, contributes to technological change. In addition to presenting a brief overview of the cryogenics field and describing certain representative examples of the transfer of NASA-generated technology to the private sector, this presentation explores a singular relationship between NASA and another federal agency, the National Bureau of Standards. The relationship has operated both to generate and disseminate information fundamental to the broad growth of the cryogenics field.

Source record↗

Interface standards for integrated forward-looking/predictive/reactive windshear systems

Forward-looking windshear systems are developing to a point (particularly the infrared sensors) where their interface with the cockpit and reactive windshear systems needs to be defined. As airlines retrofit their aircraft with reactive windshear systems, it is important to recognize that onboard windshear systems of the future will be a combination of both forward-looking and reactive elements. Today's reactive systems need to be built with the capability to interface with the forward-looking systems of tomorrow. This presentation is a first step at looking at the requirements and defining interface standards for integrated forward-looking and reactive windshear systems. Undoubtedly the requirements for interfacing these types of windshear systems will change as the technology changes.

Mcglinchey, Mark M.↗

Space Technology Game Changing Development Human Exploration Telerobotics 2

The purpose of the Human Exploration Tele robotics 2 (HET2) project is to mature telerobotics technology to increase the performance, reduce the cost, and improve the success of human space exploration. To do this, HET2 will develop a new robot, the Astrobee free-flying robot, and mature Robonaut 2 to offload routine and repetitive work from astronauts and extend and enhance crew capabilities. HET2 will test these robots in laboratories on the ground and on the International Space Station (ISS).

Robotics↗

Space Technology Game Changing Development- Next Generation Life Support: Spacecraft Oxygen Recovery (SCOR)

The Next Generation Life Support Spacecraft Oxygen Recovery (SCOR) project element is dedicated to developing technology that enables oxygen recovery from metabolically produced carbon dioxide in space habitats. The state-of-the-art system on the International Space Station uses Sabatier technology to recover (is) approximately 50% oxygen from carbon dioxide. The remaining oxygen required for crew respiration is supplied from Earth. For long duration manned missions beyond low-Earth orbit, resupply of oxygen becomes economically and logistically prohibitive. To mitigate these challenges, the SCOR project element is targeting development of technology to increase the recovery of oxygen to 75% or more, thereby reducing the total oxygen resupply required for future missions.

Abney, Morgan↗

Use of New Communication Technologies to Change NASA Safety Culture: Incorporating the Use of Blogs as a Fundamental Communications Tool

The purpose of this paper is to explore an innovative approach to culture change at NASA that goes beyond reorganizations, management training, and a renewed emphasis on safety. Over the last five years, a technological social revolution has been emerging from the internet. Blogs (aka web logs) are transforming traditional communication and information sharing outlets away from established information sources such as the media. The Blogosphere has grown from zero blogs in 1999 to approximately 4.5 million as of November 2004 and is expected to double in 2005. Blogs have demonstrated incredible effectiveness and efficiency with regards to affecting major military and political events. Consequently, NASA should embrace the new information paradigm presented by blogging. NASA can derive exceptional benefits from the new technology as follows: 1) Personal blogs can overcome the silent safety culture by giving voice to concerns or questions that are not well understood or seemingly inconsequential to the NASA community at-large without the pressure of formally raising a potential false alarm. Since blogs can be open to Agency-wide participation, an incredible amount of resources from an extensive pool of experience can focus on a single issue, concern, or problem and quickly vetted, discussed and assessed for feasibility, significance, and criticality. The speed for which this could be obtained cannot be matched through any other process or procedure currently in use. 2) Through official NASA established blogs, lessons learned can be a real-time two way process that is formed and implemented from the ground level. Data mining of official NASA blogs and personal blogs of NASA personnel can identify hot button issues and concerns to senior management. 3) NASA blogs could function as a natural ombudsman for the NASA community. Through the recognition of issues being voiced by the community and taking a proactive stance on those issues, credibility within NASA Management can be restored. For NASA to harness the capabilities of blogs, NASA must develop an Agency-wide policy on blogging to encourage use and provide guidance. This policy should describe basic rules of conduct and content as well as a policy of non-retribution and/or anonymity. The Agency must provide sever space within their firewalls, provide appropriate software tools, and promote blogs in newsletters and official websites. By embracing the use of blogs, a potential pool of 19,000 experts could be available to address each posted safety issue, concern, problem, or question. Blogs could result in real NASA culture change.

Huls, Dale thomas↗

Integrating Ground System Tools From Multiple Technologies Into a Single System Environment

With rapid technology changes and new and improved development techniques, it becomes extremely difficult to try to add capabilities to existing ground systems without wanting to replace the entire system. Replacing entire systems is not usually cost effective so there is a need to be able to slowly improve systems without long development times that introduce risk due to large amounts of change. The Marshall Space Flight Center s (MSFC) Payload Operations Integration Center (POIC) ground system provides command, telemetry, and payload planning systems in support of the International Space Station. Our systems have continuously evolved with technology changes due to hardware end of life issues, and also due to user requirement changes. As changes have been implemented, we have tried to take advantage of some of the latest technologies while at the same time maintaining certain legacy capabilities that are not cost affective to replace. One of our biggest challenges is to integrate all of these implementations into a single system that is usable, maintainable, and scalable. Another challenge is to provide access to our tools in such a way that users are not aware of all the various implementation methods and tools being used. This approach not only makes our system much more usable, it allows us to continue to migrate capabilities and to add capabilities without impacting system usability. This paper will give an overview of the tools used for MSFC ISS payload operations and show an approach for integrating various technologies into a single environment that is maintainable, flexible, usable, cost effective, and that meets user needs.

Ritter, George H.↗

How Emerging Technologies are Changing the Rules of Spacecraft Ground Support

As part of its effort to develop the flight dynamics distributed system (FDDS), NASA established a program for the continual monitoring of the developments in computer and software technologies, and for assessing the significance of constructing and operating spacecraft ground data systems. In relation to this, technology trends in the computing industry are reviewed, exploring their significance for the spacecraft ground support industry. The technologies considered are: hardware; object computing; Internet; automation, and software development. The ways in which these technologies have affected the industry are considered.

Boland, Dillard↗

The future evolution of energy-water-agriculture interconnectivity across the US

Abstract Energy, water, and agricultural resources across the globe are highly interconnected. This interconnectivity poses science challenges, such as understanding and modeling interconnections, as well as practical challenges, such as efficiently managing interdependent resource systems. Using the US as an example, this study seeks to define and explore how interconnectivity evolves over space and time under a range of influences. Concepts from graph theory and input–output analysis are used to visualize and quantify key intersectoral linkages using two new indices: the ‘Interconnectivity Magnitude Index’ and the ‘Interconnectivity Spread Index’. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), we explore the future evolution of these indices under four scenarios that explore a range of forces, including socioeconomic and technological change. Analysis is conducted at both national and state level spatial scales from 2015 to 2100. Results from a Reference scenario show that resource interconnectivity in the US is primarily driven by water use amongst different sectors, while changes in interconnectivity are driven by a decoupling of the water and electricity systems, as power plants become more water-efficient over time. High population and GDP growth results in relatively more decoupling of sectors, as a larger share of water and energy is used outside of interconnected sector feedback loops. Lower socioeconomic growth results in the opposite trend. Transitioning to a low-carbon economy increases interconnectivity because of the expansion of purpose-grown biomass, which strengthens the connections between water and energy. The results highlight that while some regions may experience similar sectoral stress projections, the composition of the intersectoral connectivity leading to that sectoral stress may call for distinctly different multi-sector co-management strategies. The methodology we introduce here can be applied in diverse geographical and sectoral contexts to enable better understanding of where, when, and how coupling or decoupling between sectors could evolve and be better managed.

Khan, Zarrar (ORCID:0000000281478553)↗

GIS Visualization of Transportation Energy Consumption

Transportation is witnessing unprecedented transformation, where emerging technologies are disrupting the way we travel. Be it sharing economy, or micro-mobility, the landscape of urban transportation is undergoing a much-needed paradigm shift. In order to capture and model these shifts, researchers need to be agile in their studies of the current and future transportation landscape. The need for agility in turn calls for sophisticated, intuitive, and reliable means to visualize and share transportation data. Travel is inherently spatial, so methods of visualizing transportation information should also be rooted in spatial analysis. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are the premier technological framework to analyze and display spatial data. GIS tools have been used in the past to depict flow of vehicles, and display of network conditions (speed, congestion, etc.). However, in an ever-changing technological landscape, spanning advancements in vehicle as well as information systems, depicting vehicle flows falls short of providing a comprehensive picture of the impact these advancements have on travel related energy consumption. To address this issue, this research effort presents a web-based mapping application to visualize how travel related energy flows across a city. The application is being developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory researchers to integrate various transportation energy consumption models within a GIS schema. This has the goal of enabling rapid analysis of energy impacts of the dramatically evolving transportation environment. The application is being developed using a Python framework for ArcGIS Online. Using road network data from the City of Columbus, Ohio and traffic data from CATT Laboratory's Regional Integrated Transportation Information System, transportation energy consumption will be modeled at a macro level. The application aims to provide highly accurate data while still maintaining the flexibility needed to adapt the model when new technologies arise. The methodology presented through this effort is expected to provide insights into how light-duty vehicles use energy on a large scale based on the road network they use. The application will also provide data exports to enable sharing and collaboration. " need for agility in turn calls for sophisticated, intuitive, and reliable means to visualize and share transportation data. Travel is inherently spatial, so methods of visualizing transportation information should also be rooted in spatial analysis. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are the premier technological framework to analyze and display spatial data. GIS tools have been used in the past to depict flow of vehicles, and display of network conditions (speed, congestion, etc.). However, in an ever-changing technological landscape, spanning advancements in vehicle as well as information systems, depicting vehicle flows falls short of providing a comprehensive picture of the impact these advancements have on travel related energy consumption. To address this issue, this research effort presents a web-based mapping application to visualize how travel related energy flows across a city. The application is being developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory researchers to integrate various transportation energy consumption models within a GIS schema. This has the goal of enabling rapid analysis of energy impacts of the dramatically evolving transportation environment. The application is being developed using a Python framework for ArcGIS Online. Using road network data from the City of Columbus, Ohio and traffic data from CATT Laboratory's Regional Integrated Transportation Information System, transportation energy consumption will be modeled at a macro level. The application aims to provide highly accurate data while still maintaining the flexibility needed to adapt the model when new technologies arise. The methodology presented through this effort is expected to provide insights into how light-duty vehicles use energy on a large scale based on the road network they use. The application will also provide data exports to enable sharing and collaboration.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Adapting to a Changing World: Managing the Promise and Peril of Emerging Technologies and the Nuclear Nexus

This paper is focused on emerging technologies in three areas: outer space, cyberspace, and artificial intelligence. Technologies in each of these areas share a number of characteristics that make them a challenge for legally-binding approaches to arms control. For example, they each have significant definitional challenges. They are also dual use and within the reach of non-state actors. Verifying compliance with any legally-binding agreements in these areas poses significant challenges, at least at this time. Moreover, the rapid pace of technological change also contributes to the difficulty of crafting legally-binding arms control measures. The United States has generally championed a more normative approach to the governance of emerging technologies—the idea being that international agreement on norms serves as the basis for collective action to respond to activities that deviate from those norms.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

An economic model of the manufacturers' aircraft production and airline earnings potential, volume 3

A behavioral explanation of the process of technological change in the U. S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries is presented. The model indicates the principal factors which influence the aircraft (airframe) manufacturers in researching, developing, constructing and promoting new aircraft technology; and the financial requirements which determine the delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk airlines. Following specification and calibration of the model, the types and numbers of new aircraft were estimated historically for each airline's fleet. Examples of possible applications of the model to forecasting an individual airline's future fleet also are provided. The functional form of the model is a composite which was derived from several preceding econometric models developed on the foundations of the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change and represents an important contribution to the improved understanding of the economic and financial requirements for aircraft selection and production. The model's primary application will be to forecast the future types and numbers of new aircraft required for each domestic airline's fleet.

Kneafsey, J. T.↗

Determination of the key parameters affecting historic communications satellite trends

Data representing 13 series of commercial communications satellites procured between 1968 and 1982 were analyzed to determine the factors that have contributed to the general reduction over time of the per circuit cost of communications satellites. The model by which the data were analyzed was derived from a general telecommunications application and modified to be more directly applicable for communications satellites. In this model satellite mass, bandwidth-years, and technological change were the variable parameters. A linear, least squares, multiple regression routine was used to obtain the measure of significance of the model. Correlation was measured by coefficient of determination (R super 2) and t-statistic. The results showed that no correlation could be established with satellite mass. Bandwidth-year however, did show a significant correlation. Technological change in the bandwidth-year case was a significant factor in the model. This analysis and the conclusions derived are based on mature technologies, i.e., satellite designs that are evolutions of earlier designs rather than the first of a new generation. The findings, therefore, are appropriate to future satellites only if they are a continuation of design evolution.

Namkoong, D.↗