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Structural complexity and primary production resistance are coupled in a temperate forest

The capacity of forests to resist structural change and retain material legacies–the biotic and abiotic resources that persist through disturbance–is crucial to sustaining ecosystem function after disturbance. However, the role of forest structure as both a material legacy and feature supporting carbon (C) cycling stability following disturbance has not been widely investigated. We used a large-scale disturbance manipulation to ask whether legacies of lidar-derived canopy structures drive 3-year primary production responses to disturbance. As part of the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment (FoRTE) in northern Michigan, USA we simulated phloem-disrupting disturbances producing a range of severities and affecting canopy trees of different sizes. We quantified the legacies of forest structure using two approaches: one measuring the change in structure and primary production from pre-to post-disturbance and the second estimating resistance as log transformed ratios of control and treatment values. We found that total aboveground wood net primary production (ANPP w ) was similar across disturbance severities as legacy trees rapidly increased rates of primary production. Experiment-wide, the disturbance had limited effects on change in mean structural complexity values; however, high variance underscored large differences in the magnitude and direction of complexity's response at the plot-scale. Plot-scale structural complexity, but not vegetation area index (VAI), resistance strongly predicted ANPP w resistance while temporal VAI and structural complexity changes did not. We conclude that the presence of material legacies in the form of forest structure may affect primary production stability following disturbance and that how legacies are quantified may affect the interpretation of disturbance response.

lidar—remote sensing↗

U.S. Department of Energy Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment Experiments: FACE Results, Lessons, and Legacy

In the 1970s, growing concern about potential long-range consequences of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels prompted the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to begin developing a CO 2 research program. The goal was to obtain the scientific information needed to reduce uncertainty and develop a knowledgebase for decision-making. At its start in 1980, this program had three components: the global carbon cycle, climate effects, and vegetation effects. The vegetation effects component recognized that increased atmospheric CO 2 could be a potential benefit to vegetation and crops because CO 2 is an essential resource for plant growth. In addition to increasing crop yield, program developers and researchers recognized that this fertilizer effect could also result in greater storage of fossil fuel CO 2 by forests. Initial experiments were small in scale and scope and focused on the photosynthesis, physiology, and water use of crop plants, but the focus shifted toward responses of plants in natural systems, as needed for connections to the global carbon cycle. Program research investigated CO 2 interactions with other environmental variables, emphasizing field research whenever possible and recognizing that exposure to elevated CO 2 concentrations under realistic field conditions should lead to better predictions of plant response. Whole-ecosystem field experiments were instituted in low-stature ecosystems, but experiments to address forest responses necessarily relied on tree seedlings or saplings in open-top chambers (OTCs) and not within intact forest ecosystems. The need for larger-scale, longer-duration experiments in each of the world’s six major biomes (tundra, boreal forest, temperate forest, tropical forest, grassland, and desert) became clear, and for these experiments, free-air CO 2 exposure facilities were necessary. This report summarizes the objectives and main results of DOE-sponsored experiments employing such facilities, along with the outcomes from research on ecosystem responses using field chambers (see Fig. ES.1, p. x). Additionally, this report highlights the many successes of DOE CO 2 enrichment studies and considers the lessons learned that can be used to guide future initiatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Urbanization and edge effects interact to drive mutualism breakdown and the rise of unstable pathogenic communities in forest soil

Temperate forests are threatened by urbanization and fragmentation, with over 20% (118,300 km 2 ) of U.S. forest land projected to be subsumed by urban land development. We leveraged a unique, well-characterized urban-to-rural and forest edge-to-interior gradient to identify the combined impact of these two land use changes—urbanization and forest edge creation—on the soil microbial community in native remnant forests. We found evidence of mutualism breakdown between trees and their fungal root mutualists [ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi] with urbanization, where ECM fungi colonized fewer tree roots and had less connectivity in soil microbiome networks in urban forests compared to rural forests. However, urbanization did not reduce the relative abundance of ECM fungi in forest soils; instead, forest edges alone led to strong reductions in ECM fungal abundance. At forest edges, ECM fungi were replaced by plant and animal pathogens, as well as copiotrophic, xenobiotic-degrading, and nitrogen-cycling bacteria, including nitrifiers and denitrifiers. Urbanization and forest edges interacted to generate new “suites” of microbes, with urban interior forests harboring highly homogenized microbiomes, while edge forest microbiomes were more heterogeneous and less stable, showing increased vulnerability to low soil moisture. When scaled to the regional level, we found that forest soils are projected to harbor high abundances of fungal pathogens and denitrifying bacteria, even in rural areas, due to the widespread existence of forest edges. Our results highlight the potential for soil microbiome dysfunction—including increased greenhouse gas production—in temperate forest regions that are subsumed by urban expansion, both now and in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reviving the carbon sink: The influence of moderate wind disturbance in a secondary temperate mixed forest

Global forests are increasingly exposed to climate-driven perturbations, which may in turn alter their climate mitigation potential. As tropical cyclones expand poleward due to climate warming, wind disturbances in temperate forests have become increasingly frequent. The consequences of moderate wind disturbances remain poorly understood, hindering efforts to quantify their role in the global carbon cycle. Here, we used 16 years of continuous eddy covariance and biometric measurements to investigate the impacts of moderate wind disturbances on the structure and carbon sink dynamics of a temperate forest in Northeast China. Following Typhoon Maysak in 2020, the mortality of large trees (particularly the aging pioneer species) increased ninefold, whereas that of small trees decreased by nearly half. Both stand basal area and leaf area index were reduced between 2019 and 2023, with aging pioneer tree species being more vulnerable than mid-to-late species to wind disturbances. Shifts in species composition altered the environmental sensitivity of forest carbon sink function. Unexpectedly, wind disturbances reversed the declining trends in net ecosystem production and ecosystem carbon use efficiency of this secondary forest. A novel composite structural indicator—the standardized leaf area index (the maximum leaf area supported by per basal area of the stand)—provided robust predictions (R 2 > 0.4) of carbon sink dynamics throughout the study period. The selective removal of less efficient pioneer trees accelerated succession and reversed the aging-related decline in forest carbon sink strength and carbon use efficiency. In conclusion, these findings highlight the potential role of moderate wind disturbances in enhancing forest carbon sink function and offer a framework for understanding, assessing, and predicting forest carbon dynamics under increasing disturbance frequencies driven by climate change.

Carbon sink↗

Functional variability in specific root respiration translates to autotrophic differences in soil respiration in a temperate deciduous forest

CO 2 release from forest soils (R s ) is a prominent flux in the global carbon cycle. Rs is derived from roots (autotrophic respiration, R a ) and microbial (heterotrophic) respiration and is highly dynamic, as it depends on edaphic and environmental conditions as well as root functional traits and microbial community composition. It is unclear how root functional traits affect root and microbial respiration rates; however, their consideration may help parse out the relative contributions of root and microbial respiration to R s . At a temperate forest site, root systems of 3–4 functional root orders and their surrounding surface soil were carefully excavated and placed into custom trays designed to repeatedly measure R s in situ on eight temperate tree species that varied in their root functional strategies and mycorrhizal affinity. R s was measured bi-weekly to monthly for nearly one year using a custom chamber attached to a gas exchange system. R s varied over time, ranging from 0.3 to 12 µmol m -2 s -1 . Comparable root systems of the same species were excised from the soil and specific root respiration rates (R r ) were measured. Rr ranged from 2.5 to 9.0 nmol g -1 s -1 and was negatively correlated with root tissue density and positively related to root tissue nitrogen concentration. Using R r to estimate R a , we estimate that R a accounts for <10%, on average 2–3%, of R s for individual root systems (averaging 1.2 g dry biomass) housed in surrounding soil (average 1.3 kg dry mass) in situ; thus, Ra was roughly 20 times greater than Rh per unit mass. The contribution of R a peaked in the fall and coincided with leaf senescence of the forest canopy. A soil-sterilizing experimental treatment designed to help isolate R a in situ reduced bacterial biomass and shifted fungal community composition, but there was no reduction in Rs of the in-situ root-soil tray systems. The relative R a to R s ratio increased with root functional strategies characterized by greater specific root length and tip abundance, but also to greater root tissue density. The ratio of R a to R s also increased with warmer soil temperatures and decreased slightly with increasing soil moisture. We discuss how incorporating root functional traits as modulators of the autotrophic contribution to R s could be considered when modeling total soil CO 2 efflux from forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamics of Fungal and Bacterial Biomass Carbon in Natural Ecosystems: Site-level Applications of the CLM-Microbe Model

Explicitly representing microbial processes has been recognized as a key improvement to Earth system models for the realistic projections of soil carbon (C) and climate dynamics. The CLM-Microbe model builds upon the CLM4.5 and explicitly represents two major soil microbial groups, fungi and bacteria. Based on the compiled time-series data of fungal (FBC) and bacterial (BBC) biomass C from nine biomes, we parameterized and validated the CLM-Microbe model, and further conducted sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis for simulating C cycling. The model performance was evaluated with mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) for relative change in FBC and BBC. The CLM-Microbe model is able to reasonably capture the seasonal dynamics of FBC and BBC across biomes, particularly for tropical/subtropical forest, temperate broadleaf forest, and grassland, with MAE < 0.49 for FBC and <0.36 for BBC and RMSE <0.52 FBC and <0.39 for BBC, while R2 values are relatively smaller in some biomes (e.g., shrub) due to small sample sizes. We found good consistencies between simulated and observed FBC (R 2 =0.70, P<0.001) and BBC (R 2 =0.26, P<0.05) on average across biomes, but the model is not able to fully capture the large variation in observed FBC and BBC. Sensitivity analysis shows the most critical parameters are turnover rate, carbon-to-nitrogen ratio of fungi and bacteria, and microbial assimilation efficiency. This study confirms that the explicit representation of soil microbial mechanisms enhances model performance in simulating C variables such as heterotrophic respiration and soil organic C density. The further application of the CLM-Microbe model would deepen our understanding of microbial contributions to the global C cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variation in hyphal production rather than turnover regulates standing fungal biomass in temperate hardwood forests

Abstract Soil fungi link above‐ and belowground carbon (C) fluxes through their interactions with plants and contribute to C and nutrient dynamics through the production, turnover, and activity of fungal hyphae. Despite their importance to ecosystem processes, estimates of hyphal production and turnover rates are relatively uncommon, especially in temperate hardwood forests. We sequentially harvested hyphal ingrowth bags to quantify the rates of Dikarya (Ascomycota and Basidiomycota) hyphal production and turnover in three hardwood forests in the Midwestern United States, where plots differed in their abundance of arbuscular (AM)‐ vs. ectomycorrhizal (ECM)‐associated trees. Hyphal production rates increased linearly with the percentage of ECM trees and annual production rates were 66% higher in ECM‐ than AM‐dominated plots. Hyphal turnover rates did not differ across the mycorrhizal gradient (plots varying in their abundance of AM vs. ECM trees), suggesting that the greater fungal biomass in ECM‐dominated plots relates to greater fungal production rather than slower fungal turnover. Differences in hyphal production across the gradient aligned with distinctly different fungal communities and activities. As ECM trees increased in dominance, fungi inside ingrowth bags produced more extracellular enzymes involved in degrading nitrogen (N)‐bearing relative to C‐bearing compounds, suggesting greater fungal (and possibly plant) N demand in ECM‐dominated soils. Collectively, our results demonstrate that shifts in temperate tree species composition that result in changes in the dominant type of mycorrhizal association may have strong impacts on Dikarya hyphal production, fungal community composition and extracellular enzyme activity, with important consequences for soil C and N cycling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Sustainable forest management for carbon, wood and biodiversity must consider natural disturbance regimes

Abstract Forests provide multiple benefits that include sequestering carbon, supporting biodiversity, and providing wood products. Managing temperate forests to achieve these benefits sustainably is challenging given the legacy of past human impacts, the complexity of forest development, and increasing but unpredictable disturbances. These intricacies prompted debate about the most effective management of temperate forests to achieve climate mitigation while sustaining forest productivity, regeneration, and diversity. Most research focused on management impacts under relatively stable environmental conditions, whereas forests are facing increasingly frequent and more severe climatic and biotic disturbances. Here, we used a regionally calibrated forest growth model to simulate the effects of forest management on carbon, biodiversity, and wood production under prevalent natural disturbances in the northeastern US. We developed scenarios combining forest management and disturbance regimes based on assumptions of species-specific tree regeneration and mortality rates. We compared passive management with no cutting that prioritizes maintaining existing forest trees with two common regional harvest practices: exploitative timber harvest that prioritizes short-term wood production and regenerative timber harvest that prioritizes regenerating biodiverse native forest tree seedlings. In the absence of natural disturbance, no cutting provides 41% higher forest carbon storage and 50% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than exploitative or regenerative practices. The presence of drought, windstorm, pest, and disease disturbances altered these outcomes. Regenerative forest management provides 25% higher forest carbon storage and 26% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than no cutting. Our results demonstrate that wood products and their carbon storage and fossil emission avoidance are important for determining the total climate benefits of forest management under natural disturbances. Our findings highlight that natural disturbance regimes should be considered when selecting management to promote multiple forest benefits, suggesting the need for tailored as opposed to one-size-fits-all policies to sustainably manage temperate forests worldwide.

Liu, Weier (ORCID:0000000265914239)↗

Accounting for Changes in Radiation Improves the Ability of SIF to Track Water Stress-Induced Losses in Summer GPP in a Temperate Deciduous Forest

Global observations of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) are available from multiple satellite platforms, and SIF is increasingly used as a proxy for photosynthetic activity and ecosystem productivity. Because the relationship between SIF and gross primary productivity (GPP) depends on a variety of factors including ecosystem type and environmental conditions, it is necessary to study SIF observations across various spatiotemporal scales and ecosystems. To explore how SIF signals relate to productivity over a temperate deciduous forest, we deployed a PhotoSpec spectrometer system at the University of Michigan Biological Station AmeriFlux site (US-UMB) in the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan during the 2018 and 2019 growing seasons. We found that SIF correlated with GPP across diurnal and seasonal cycles (R 2 = 0.61 and 0.64 for 90-min- and daily-averaged data), but that SIF signals were more strongly related to downwelling radiation than GPP (R 2 = 0.91 for daily-averaged data). The dependence of SIF on radiation obscured the impact of intraseasonal drought in the SIF timeseries, but drought stress was apparent as a decrease in relative SIF, which exhibited a stronger correlation with GPP (R 2 = 0.56) than other remotely sensed data over the drought period. These results highlight the potential of SIF for detecting stress-induced losses in forest productivity. Additionally, we found that the red:far-red SIF ratio did not exhibit a response to water stress-induced losses in productivity, but was largely driven by seasonal and interannual changes in canopy structure, as well as by synoptic changes in downwelling radiation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The toughest animals of the Earth versus global warming: Effects of long‐term experimental warming on tardigrade community structure of a temperate deciduous forest

Abstract Understanding how different taxa respond to global warming is essential for predicting future changes and elaborating strategies to buffer them. Tardigrades are well known for their ability to survive environmental stressors, such as drying and freezing, by undergoing cryptobiosis and rapidly recovering their metabolic function after stressors cease. Determining the extent to which animals that undergo cryptobiosis are affected by environmental warming will help to understand the real magnitude climate change will have on these organisms. Here, we report on the responses of tardigrades within a five‐year‐long, field‐based artificial warming experiment, which consisted of 12 open‐top chambers heated to simulate the projected effects of global warming (ranging from 0 to 5.5°C above ambient temperature) in a temperate deciduous forest of North Carolina (USA). To elucidate the effects of warming on the tardigrade community inhabiting the soil litter, three community diversity indices (abundance, species richness, and Shannon diversity) and the abundance of the three most abundant species ( Diphascon pingue , Adropion scoticum , and Mesobiotus sp.) were determined. Their relationships with air temperature, soil moisture, and the interaction between air temperature and soil moisture were tested using Bayesian generalized linear mixed models. Despite observed negative effects of warming on other ground invertebrates in previous studies at this site, long‐term warming did not affect the abundance, richness, or diversity of tardigrades in this experiment. These results are in line with previous experimental studies, indicating that tardigrades may not be directly affected by ongoing global warming, possibly due to their thermotolerance and cryptobiotic abilities to avoid negative effects of stressful temperatures, and the buffering effect on temperature of the soil litter substrate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tracking Seasonal and Interannual Variability in Photosynthetic Downregulation in Response to Water Stress at a Temperate Deciduous Forest

Abstract The understanding and modeling of photosynthetic dynamics affected by climate variability can be highly uncertain. In this paper, we examined a well‐characterized eddy covariance site in a drought‐prone temperate deciduous broadleaf forest combining tower measurements and satellite observations. We find that an increase in spring temperature usually leads to enhanced spring gross primary production (GPP), but a GPP reduction in late growing season due to water limitation. We evaluated how well a coupled fluorescence‐photosynthesis model (SCOPE) and satellite data sets track the interannual and seasonal variations of tower GPP from 2007 to 2016. In SCOPE, a simple stress factor scaling of Vcmax as a linear function of observed predawn leaf water potential ( ψ pd ) shows a good agreement between modeled and measured interannual variations in both GPP and solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment‐2 (GOME‐2). The modeled and satellite‐observed changes in SIF yield are ~30% smaller than corresponding changes in light use efficiency (LUE) under severe stress, for which a common linear SIF to GPP scaling would underestimate the stress reduction in GPP. Overall, GOME‐2 SIF tracks interannual tower GPP variations better than satellite vegetations indices (VIs) representing canopy “greenness.” However, it is still challenging to attribute observed SIF variations unequivocally to greenness or physiological changes due to large GOME‐2 footprint. Higher‐resolution SIF data sets (e.g., TROPOMI) already show the potential to well capture the downregulation of late‐season GPP and could pave the way to better disentangle canopy structural and physiological changes in the future.

He, Liyin↗

Harvest Intensity Effects on Carbon Stocks and Biodiversity Are Dependent on Regional Climate in Douglas-Fir Forests of British Columbia

Temperate forests provide crucial ecosystems services as living sinks for atmospheric carbon (C) and repositories of biodiversity. Applying harvesting at intensities that minimize losses offers one means for mitigating global change. However, little is known of overstory retention levels that best conserve ecosystem services in different regional climates, and likewise as climate changes. To quantify the effect of harvest intensity on C stocks and biodiversity, we compared five harvesting intensities (clearcutting, seedtree retention, 30% patch retention, 60% patch retention, and uncut controls) across a climatic aridity gradient that ranged from humid to semi-arid in the Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests of British Columbia. We found that increased harvesting intensity reduced total ecosystem, above ground, and live tree C stocks 1 year post-harvest, and the magnitude of these losses were negatively correlated with climatic aridity. In humid forests, total ecosystem C ranged from 50% loss following clearcut harvest, to 30% loss following large patch retention harvest. In arid forests this range was 60 to 8% loss, respectively. Where lower retention harvests are sought, the small patch retention treatment protected both C stocks and biodiversity in the arid forests, whereas the seedtree method performed as well or better in the humid forests. Below ground C stocks declined by an average of 29% after harvesting, with almost all of the loss from the forest floor and none from the mineral soil. Of the secondary pools, standing and coarse deadwood declined in all harvesting treatments regardless of cutting intensity or aridity, while C stocks in fine fuels and stumps increased. The understory plant C pool declined across all harvesting intensities in the humid forests, but increased in arid forests. Shannon’s diversity and richness of tree and bryoid species declined with harvesting intensity, where tree species losses were greatest in the humid forests and bryoid losses greatest in arid forests. Shrub and herb species were unaffected. This study showed that the highest retention level was best at reducing losses in C stocks and biodiversity, and clearcutting the poorest, and while partial retention of canopy trees can reduce losses in these ecosystem services, outcomes will vary with climatic aridity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global patterns of forest autotrophic carbon fluxes

Carbon (C) fixation, allocation, and metabolism by trees set the basis for energy and material flows in forest ecosystems and define their interactions with Earth’s changing climate. However, we lack a cohesive synthesis on how forest carbon fluxes vary globally with respect to climate and one another. Here, we draw upon 1,319 records from the Global Forest Carbon Database (ForC), representing all major forest types and the nine most significant autotrophic carbon fluxes, to comprehensively explore how C cycling in mature, undisturbed forests varies with latitude and climate on a global scale. We show that, across all flux variables analyzed, C cycling decreases continuously with absolute latitude – a finding that confirms multiple previous studies but contradicts the idea that net primary productivity of temperate forests rivals that of tropical forests. C flux variables generally displayed similar trends across latitude and multiple climate variables, with no differences in allocation detected at this global scale. Temperature variables in general, and mean annual temperature and temperature seasonality in particular, were the best univariate predictors of C flux, explaining 19 - 71% of variation in the C fluxes analyzed. The effects of temperature were modified by moisture availability, with C flux reduced under hot and dry conditions and sometimes under very high precipitation. C fluxes increased with growing season length, but this was never the best univariate predictor. Within the growing season, the influence of climate on C cycling was small but significant for a number of flux variables. These findings clarify how forest C flux varies with latitude and climate on a global scale. In a period of accelerating climatic change, this improved understanding of the fundamental climatic controls on forest C cycling sets a foundation for understanding patterns of change.

Banbury Morgan, Rebecca↗

Coupling of Tree Growth and Photosynthetic Carbon Uptake Across Six North American Forests

Linking biometric measurements of stand-level biomass growth to tower-based measurements of carbon uptake—gross primary productivity and net ecosystem productivity—has been the focus of numerous ecosystem-level studies aimed to better understand the factors regulating carbon allocation to slow-turnover wood biomass pools. However, few of these studies have investigated the importance of previous year uptake to growth. We tested the relationship between wood biomass increment (WBI) and different temporal periods of carbon uptake from the current and previous years to investigate the potential lagged allocation of fixed carbon to growth among six mature, temperate forests. We found WBI was strongly correlated to carbon uptake across space (i.e., long-term averages at the different sites) but on annual timescales, WBI was much less related to carbon uptake, suggesting a temporal mismatch between C fixation and allocation to biomass. We detected lags in allocation of the previous year's carbon uptake to WBI at three of the six sites. Sites with higher annual WBI had overall stronger correlations to carbon uptake, with the strongest correlations to carbon uptake from the previous year. Only one site had WBI with strong positive relationships to current year uptake and not the previous year. Forests with low rates of WBI demonstrated weak correlations to carbon uptake from the previous year and stronger relationships to current year climate conditions. Our work shows an important, but not universal, role of lagged allocation of the previous year's carbon uptake to growth in temperate forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy and Neutron Scattering Data, Mineral Incubation Experiment, Walker Branch Watershed, TN (2020 - 2021)

Iron (Fe) (oxyhydr)oxides are well-recognized contributors to soil carbon (C) storage, but the effects of manganese (Mn) oxides on carbon storage and transformation are relatively unexplored. Here, the relative capacities of Fe and Mn oxides to bind and stabilize soil organic C were directly compared using an in-situ incubation experiment. Quartz sands coated with either poorly crystalline Mn(III/IV) oxides or Fe(III) oxides, or left uncoated, were buried in a temperate forest soil for up to one year. This data package contains processed data outputs of carbon near edge x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (C NEXAFS), iron and manganese x-ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy (XANES), and small angle neutron scattering (SANS) data collected for initial oxide-coated and uncoated quartz sands and for those buried in the temperate forest soil for 365 days.

Energy (eV)↗

Quantitative, trait-based microbial ecology to accurately model the impacts of nitrogen deposition on soil carbon cycling in the Anthropocene (Final Technical Report)

Atmospheric nitrogen pollution has altered fundamental soil processes, challenging our understanding of the extent to which soils will continue to sequester carbon and slow the pace of future environmental change. While most evidence shows that increases in soil nitrogen have enhanced carbon storage in temperate forests, it remains unclear whether these effects will persist as nitrogen pollution continues to decline. Moreover, there remains uncertainty as to why some forests gain more carbon in response to nitrogen pollution than others. At the heart of this knowledge gap is a failure to link nitrogen–induced shifts in microbial biodiversity with gains or losses in their functional ability to decompose, assimilate, and ultimately stabilize soil carbon. Given that this uncertainty impedes the ability of predictive models to project future soil carbon stocks, there is a critical need to determine how key microbial traits drive soil carbon responses to nitrogen pollution. As such the goals of this project were to: (1) Quantify variation in taxon–specific and community–level microbial traits across gradients in microbial community composition, mycorrhizal symbioses, and nitrogen availability. (2) Integrate empirical data into a novel predictive framework that enhances our ability to project the regional soil carbon consequences of historical nitrogen pollution in temperate forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Midwest US Croplands Determine Model Divergence in North American Carbon Fluxes

Large uncertainties in North American terrestrial carbon fluxes hinder regional climate projections. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), the essential tools for understanding continental-scale carbon cycle, diverge on whether temperate forests or croplands dominate carbon uptake in North America. Evidence from novel photosynthetic proxies, such as those based on chlorophyll fluorescence, has cast doubt on the “weak cropland, strong forest” carbon uptake patterns simulated by most TBMs. However, no systematic evaluation of TBMs has yet been attempted to pin down space-time patterns that are most consistent with regional CO 2 observational constraints. Here, we leverage atmospheric CO 2 observations and satellite-observed photosynthetic proxies to understand emergent space-time patterns in North American carbon fluxes from a large suite of TBMs and data-driven models. To do so, we evaluate how well the atmospheric signals resulting from carbon flux estimates reproduce the space-time variability in atmospheric CO 2 , as is observed by a network of continuous-monitoring towers over North America. Models with gross or net carbon fluxes that are consistent with the observed CO 2 variability share a salient feature of growing-season carbon uptake in Midwest US croplands. Conversely, the remaining models place most growing-season uptake in boreal or temperate forests. Differences in model explanatory power depend mainly on the simulated annual cycles of cropland uptake—especially, the timing of peak uptake—rather than the distribution of annual mean fluxes across biomes. Our results suggest that improved model representation of cropland phenology is crucial to robust, policy-relevant estimation of North American carbon exchange.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗