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DOE OSTI2021

Automatic Traffic Queue-End Identification using Location-Based Waze User Reports

Traffic queues, especially queues caused by non-recurrent events such as incidents, are unexpected to high-speed drivers approaching the end of queue (EOQ) and become safety concerns. Though the topic has been extensively studied, the identification of EOQ has been limited by the spatial-temporal resolution of traditional data sources. This study explores the potential of location-based crowdsourced data, specifically Waze user reports. It presents a dynamic clustering algorithm that can group the location-based reports in real time and identify the spatial-temporal extent of congestion as well as the EOQ. The algorithm is a spatial-temporal extension of the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) algorithm for real-time streaming data with an adaptive threshold selection procedure. Here, the proposed method was tested with 34 traffic congestion cases in the Knoxville, Tennessee area of the United States. It is demonstrated that the algorithm can effectively detect spatial-temporal extent of congestion based on Waze report clusters and identify EOQ in real-time. The Waze report-based detection are compared to the detection based on roadside sensor data. The results are promising: The EOQ identification time of Waze is similar to the EOQ detection time of traffic sensor data, with only 1.1 min difference on average. In addition, Waze generates 1.9 EOQ detection points every mile, compared to 1.8 detection points generated by traffic sensor data, suggesting the two data sources are comparable in respect of reporting frequency. The results indicate that Waze is a valuable complementary source for EOQ detection where no traffic sensors are installed.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Identifying High Ionic Conductivity Compositions of Ionic Liquid Electrolytes Using Features of the Solvation Environment

Binary mixtures of ionic liquids with molecular solvents are gaining interest in electrochemical applications due to the improvement in their performance over neat ionic liquids. Dilution with suitable molecular solvents can reduce the viscosity and facilitate faster diffusion of ions, thereby yielding substantially higher ionic conductivity than that for a pure ionic liquid. Although viscosity and diffusion coefficients typically behave as monotonic functions of concentration, ionic conductivity often passes through a peak value at an optimum molar ratio of the molecular solvent to the ionic liquid. The ionic conductivity maximum is generally explained in terms of a balance between the ease of charge transport and the concentration of the charge carriers. In this work, fluctuation in the local environment surrounding an ion is invoked as a plausible explanation for the ionic conductivity mechanism with a binary mixture of 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium tetrafluoroborate and ethylene glycol as an example. The magnitude of the dynamism in the local environment is captured by measuring the spatial and temporal features of the solvation environment. Standard deviation in the number of ions in the solvation environment serves as a spatial feature, while the cage correlation lifetimes for oppositely charged ions within the first solvation shell serve as a temporal feature. Large standard deviations in the cluster ion population and short cage correlation lifetimes are indicators of highly dynamic ionic environment at the molecular level and consequently yield high ionic conductivity. Such compositions were found to be in good agreement with the optimum ionic liquid mole fractions obtained through experimental measurement. Short cage correlation lifetimes enable the identification of optimum mixture compositions using simulation trajectories significantly shorter than those required to implement the Nernst–Einstein or Einstein formalisms for calculating ionic conductivity. We validated the applicability of this approach across force fields and in six ionic liquid-molecular solvent electrolytes formed with combination of cations, anions, and solvents. We offer a computationally efficient approach of screening ionic liquid-molecular solvent binary mixture electrolytes to identify molar ratios that yield high ionic conductivity.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Untangling the Galaxy. II. Structure within 3 kpc

We present the results of the hierarchical clustering analysis of the Gaia DR2 data to search for clusters, comoving groups, and other stellar structures. The current paper builds on the sample from the previous work, extending it in distance from 1 to 3 kpc and increasing the number of identified structures up to 8292. To aid in the analysis of the population properties, we developed a neural network called Auriga to robustly estimate the age, extinction, and distance of a stellar group based on the input photometry and parallaxes of the individual members. We apply Auriga to derive the properties of not only the structures found in this paper, but also previously identified open clusters. Through this work, we examine the temporal structure of the spiral arms. Specifically, we find that the Sagittarius Arm has moved by >500 pc in the last 100 Myr and the Perseus Arm has been experiencing a relative lull in star formation activity over the last 25 Myr. We confirm the findings of the previous paper on the transient nature of the spiral arms, with the timescale of transition of a few 100 Myr. Finally, we find a peculiar ~1 Gyr old stream of stars that appears to be heliocentric. Its origin is unclear.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Methods and systems for analysis

Provided herein are systems and methods for the detection, quantification, and/or monitoring of analytes in samples. The systems and methods can be used, for example, to track the deposition and electrochemical behavior of individual nanoparticles and nanoparticles clusters clusters in situ with high spatial and temporal resolution. The systems and methods can be used to track the deposition and oxidation of several hundreds to thousands of nanoparticles simultaneously and reconstruct their voltammetric curves at the single nanoparticle level.

Pan, Shanlin↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatio-temporal patterning of extensile active stresses in microtubule-based active fluids

Abstract Microtubule-based active fluids exhibit turbulent-like autonomous flows, which are driven by the molecular motor powered motion of filamentous constituents. Controlling active stresses in space and time is an essential prerequisite for controlling the intrinsically chaotic dynamics of extensile active fluids. We design single-headed kinesin molecular motors that exhibit optically enhanced clustering and thus enable precise and repeatable spatial and temporal control of extensile active stresses. Such motors enable rapid, reversible switching between flowing and quiescent states. In turn, spatio-temporal patterning of the active stress controls the evolution of the ubiquitous bend instability of extensile active fluids and determines its critical length dependence. Combining optically controlled clusters with conventional kinesin motors enables one-time switching from contractile to extensile active stresses. These results open a path towards real-time control of the autonomous flows generated by active fluids.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Coarse-grain cluster analysis of tensors with application to climate biome identification

A tensor provides a concise way to codify the interdependence of complex data. Treating a tensor as a d-way array, each entry records the interaction between the different indices. Clustering provides a way to parse the complexity of the data into more readily understandable information. Clustering methods are heavily dependent on the algorithm of choice, as well as the chosen hyperparameters of the algorithm. However, their sensitivity to data scales is largely unknown. In this work, we apply the discrete wavelet transform to analyze the effects of coarse-graining on clustering tensor data. We are particularly interested in understanding how scale affects clustering of the Earth's climate system. The discrete wavelet transform allows classification of the Earth's climate across a multitude of spatial-temporal scales. The discrete wavelet transform is used to produce an ensemble of classification estimates, as opposed to a single classification. Each element of the ensemble is a clustering at a different spatial-temporal scale. Information theoretic approaches are used to identify important scale lengths in clustering the L15 Climate Datset. We also discover a sub-collection of the ensemble that spans the majority of the variance observed, allowing for efficient consensus clustering techniques that can be used to identify climate biomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

DICER: Data Intensive Computing Environment and Runtime for Evaluating Unprecedented Scale of Geospatial-Temporal Human Mobility Data

With the significant increase in sources and volume of human mobility data through commercial data vendors as well as microsimulation of cities, the scale of geospatial-temporal data to analyze and assess for mobility characterization has grown to the level of Big Data. There are mobility related commercial organizations deploying scalable computing, but often the system architecture, workflow, and intermediate processing components are not fully disclosed in relevant scope. Current research literature has a notable lack of studies demonstrating architectures and workflows for human mobility analytics that are implemented on a TeraByte scale of geospatial-temporal data. In this context, this paper presents a hyperscale-level system solution named DICER (Data Intensive Computing Environment and Runtime) for processing and analytics of geospatial-temporal data at big data scale. Although the cluster computing architecture of DICER with Apache Spark job running on Kubernetes cluster is not new, there are innovations in the workflow, hierarchical processing logic, and a wide range of intermediate preprocessing and mobility metrics calculation. We have performed case studies to validate the effectiveness of DICER system solution by performing detailed analytics and assessment of human mobility microsimulation output at three different scopes and scale, including a usecase with 16.97 TeraByte and 259.2 Billion rows of data. In addition, we have presented another case study of utilizing DICER to perform the same mobility processing and comparative analytics on large-scale commercially available geospatial-temporal data. All these case studies validate the efficiency and usefulness of DICER in computing population mobility characteristics from geospatial-temporal trajectory data at an unprecedented scale (not only just data volume, but also combination of: number of user entities, temporal frequency, spatial resolution, data duration).

De, Debraj↗

DOE OSTI2020

Identifying Different Classes of Seismic Noise Signals Using Unsupervised Learning

Abstract Proper classification of nontectonic seismic signals is critical for detecting microearthquakes and developing an improved understanding of ongoing weak ground motions. We use unsupervised machine learning to label five classes of nonstationary seismic noise common in continuous waveforms. Temporal and spectral features describing the data are clustered to identify separable types of emergent and impulsive waveforms. The trained clustering model is used to classify every 1 s of continuous seismic records from a dense seismic array with 10–30 m station spacing. We show that dominate noise signals can be highly localized and vary on length scales of hundreds of meters. The methodology demonstrates the complexity of weak ground motions and improves the standard of analyzing seismic waveforms with a low signal‐to‐noise ratio. Application of this technique will improve the ability to detect genuine microseismic events in noisy environments where seismic sensors record earthquake‐like signals originating from nontectonic sources.

Johnson, Christopher W.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Kilometer-Scale Hydrologic Exchange Flows in a Gravel Bed River Corridor and Their Implications to Solute Migration

In this work, a well-characterized field site along a major river corridor was used to investigate the dynamic pathways and impacts of subsurface hydrogeologic structures on kilometer-scale hydrologic exchange flows between river water and groundwater. A aqueous uranium (U aq ) plume exists at the site that discharges to the Columbia River. We performed temporally intensive monitoring of specific conductance (SpC) and U aq concentrations within the plume at increasing distances from the river shoreline and at locations both within and outside a presumed subsurface pathway of lateral hydrologic exchange. Specific conductance and U aq were utilized as in-situ tracers of hydrologic exchange and associated groundwater-surface water mixing. Monitoring data was collected for an approximate two year period during which seasonal river elevations varied by more than 2 m causing distinct events of river water intrusion and retreat from the near-shore aquifer, and large temporal variations in well-water analyte concentrations. Statistical clustering analysis was applied to identify well groupings exhibiting common time series behaviors. PFLOTRAN was implemented within a modeling domain of 3.3 x 1.9 km with dynamic flow boundary conditions and accurate subsurface topography for the basal aquitard underlying the aquifer. In-silico calculations of river water tracer behavior were performed to assess predominant flow directions and velocities influenced by river stage variations and variable aquitard topography, and their collective influences on SpC and U aq concentrations. We demonstrate complicated multidirectional flow behaviors at the kilometer scale resulting from hydrologic exchange and subsurface structure that influence plume dynamics and determine the overall system behavior.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Combining biomarker and virus phylogenetic models improves HIV-1 epidemiological source identification

To identify and stop active HIV transmission chains new epidemiological techniques are needed. Here, we describe the development of a multi-biomarker augmentation to phylogenetic inference of the underlying transmission history in a local population. HIV biomarkers are measurable biological quantities that have some relationship to the amount of time someone has been infected with HIV. To train our model, we used five biomarkers based on real data from serological assays, HIV sequence data, and target cell counts in longitudinally followed, untreated patients with known infection times. The biomarkers were modeled with a mixed effects framework to allow for patient specific variation and general trends, and fit to patient data using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Subsequently, the density of the unobserved infection time conditional on observed biomarkers were obtained by integrating out the random effects from the model fit. This probabilistic information about infection times was incorporated into the likelihood function for the transmission history and phylogenetic tree reconstruction, informed by the HIV sequence data. To critically test our methodology, we developed a coalescent-based simulation framework that generates phylogenies and biomarkers given a specific or general transmission history. Testing on many epidemiological scenarios showed that biomarker augmented phylogenetics can reach 90% accuracy under idealized situations. Under realistic within-host HIV-1 evolution, involving substantial within-host diversification and frequent transmission of multiple lineages, the average accuracy was at about 50% in transmission clusters involving 5–50 hosts. Realistic biomarker data added on average 16 percentage points over using the phylogeny alone. Using more biomarkers improved the performance. Shorter temporal spacing between transmission events and increased transmission heterogeneity reduced reconstruction accuracy, but larger clusters were not harder to get right. More sequence data per infected host also improved accuracy. We show that the method is robust to incomplete sampling and that adding biomarkers improves reconstructions of real HIV-1 transmission histories. The technology presented here could allow for better prevention programs by providing data for locally informed and tailored strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

DONKEY: A Flexible and Accurate Algorithm for Clustering

We propose an accurate clustering algorithm suitable for the varied and multidimensional data sets that correspond to temporal snapshots from on-the-fly nonadiabatic trajectory-based simulations of photoexcited dynamics. The algorithm approximates the underlying probability density function using variable kernel density estimation, with local maxima corresponding to cluster centers. Each data point is then assigned to one of the maxima by employing a maximization procedure. Finally, clusters artificially separated by minor fluctuations in the probability density are merged. The algorithm does not require parameter tuning, which ensures flexibility and reduces the risk of bias. It is tested on several synthetic data sets, where it consistently outperforms conventional clustering algorithms. As a final example, the algorithm is applied to the excited dynamics of the norbornadiene ⇌ quadricyclane (C 7 H 8 ) molecular photoswitch, demonstrating how distinct reaction pathways can be identified.

algorithms↗

DOE OSTI2021

Displacement Analysis of Geothermal Field Based on PSInSAR And SOM Clustering Algorithms A Case Study of Brady Field, Nevada—USA

The availability of free and high temporal resolution satellite data and advanced SAR techniques allows us to analyze ground displacement cost-effectively. Our aim was to properly define subsidence and uplift areas to delineate a geothermal field and perform time-series analysis to identify temporal trends. A Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) algorithm was used to estimate vertical displacement in the Brady geothermal field located in Nevada by analyzing 70 Sentinel-1A Synthetic-Aperture Radar (SAR) images, between January 2017 and December 2019. To classify zones affected by displacement, an unsupervised Self-Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm was applied to classify points based on their behavior in time, and those clusters were used to determine subsidence, uplift, and stable regions automatically. Finally, time-series analysis was applied to the clustered data to understand the inflection dates. The maximum subsidence is –19 mm/yr with an average value of –6 mm/yr within the geothermal field. The maximum uplift is 14 mm/yr with an average value of 4 mm/yr within the geothermal field. The uplift occurred on the NE of the field, where the injection wells are located. On the other hand, subsidence is concentrated on the SW of the field where the production wells are located. The coupling of the PSInSAR and the SOM algorithms was shown to be effective in analyzing the direction and pattern of the displacements observed in the field.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of temporal resolution selection approaches in energy systems models

Capacity expansion models for the power sector are used to project future decisions over the coming decades by simulating investment and operation decisions for the use of electricity. Due to model performance constraints, these models typically do not explicitly simulate every hour within a year, but instead simulate representative time segments (groups of hours). This paper evaluates different approaches for selecting time segments across three methods: sequential, categorical, and clustering, across a wide range of time-segment quantities, for a total of 204 temporal profiles. To measure the performance of each profile's ability to accurately represent data, the root-mean-square-error of each profile's time segments are compared to the data's original hourly data. The temporal alignment across regions is also measured (i.e., how often windy days align across regions). Different spatial resolutions were applied for a subset of the temporal selection methods to investigate the impact spatial resolution has on performance. This paper provides a framework for measuring the value of different temporal selection methods and of adding more granular data to energy system models. Overall, multi-criteria clustering yields the lowest root-mean-square-error across all datasets evaluated and provides a holistic view of the intertwined relationships between renewable generation and electricity demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Incorporating space and time into random forest models for analyzing geospatial patterns of drug-related crime incidents in a major U.S. metropolitan area

The opioid crisis has hit American cities hard, and research on spatial and temporal patterns of drug-related activities including detecting and predicting clusters of crime incidents involving particular types of drugs is useful for distinguishing hot zones where drugs are present that in turn can further provide a basis for assessing and providing related treatment services. In this study, we investigated spatiotemporal patterns of more than 52,000 reported incidents of drug-related crime at block group granularity in Chicago, IL between 2016 and 2019. We applied a space-time analysis framework and machine learning approaches to build a model using training data that identified whether certain locations and built environment and sociodemographic factors were correlated with drug-related crime incident patterns, and establish the top contributing factors that underlaid the trends. Space and time, together with multiple driving factors, were incorporated into a random forest model to analyze these changing patterns. We accommodated both spatial and temporal autocorrelation in the model learning process to assist with capturing the changes over time and tested the capabilities of the space-time random forest model by predicting drug-related activity hot zones. Overall, we focused particularly on crime incidents that involved heroin and synthetic drugs as these have been key drug types that have highly impacted cities during the opioid crisis in the U.S.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Intermittent Criticality Multi‐Scale Processes Leading to Large Slip Events on Rough Laboratory Faults

Abstract We discuss data of three laboratory stick‐slip experiments on Westerly Granite samples performed at elevated confining pressure and constant displacement rate on rough fracture surfaces. The experiments produced complex slip patterns including fast and slow ruptures with large and small fault slips, as well as failure events on the fault surface producing acoustic emission bursts without externally‐detectable stress drop. Preparatory processes leading to large slips were tracked with an ensemble of ten seismo‐mechanical and statistical parameters characterizing local and global damage and stress evolution, localization and clustering processes, as well as event interactions. We decompose complex spatio‐temporal trends in the lab‐quake characteristics and identify persistent effects of evolving fault roughness and damage at different length scales, and local stress evolution approaching large events. The observed trends highlight labquake localization processes on different spatial and temporal scales. The preparatory process of large slip events includes smaller events marked by confined bursts of acoustic emission activity that collectively prepare the fault surface for a system‐wide failure by conditioning the large‐scale stress field. Our results are consistent overall with an evolving process of intermittent criticality leading to large failure events, and may contribute to improved forecasting of large natural earthquakes.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Progenitor and close-in circumstellar medium of type II supernova 2020fqv from high-cadence photometry and ultra-rapid UV spectroscopy

ABSTRACT We present observations of SN 2020fqv, a Virgo-cluster type II core-collapse supernova (CCSN) with a high temporal resolution light curve from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) covering the time of explosion; ultraviolet (UV) spectroscopy from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) starting 3.3 d post-explosion; ground-based spectroscopic observations starting 1.1 d post-explosion; along with extensive photometric observations. Massive stars have complicated mass-loss histories leading up to their death as CCSNe, creating circumstellar medium (CSM) with which the SNe interact. Observations during the first few days post-explosion can provide important information about the mass-loss rate during the late stages of stellar evolution. Model fits to the quasi-bolometric light curve of SN 2020fqv reveal 0.23 M⊙ of CSM confined within 1450 R⊙ (1014 cm) from its progenitor star. Early spectra (<4 d post-explosion), both from HST and ground-based observatories, show emission features from high-ionization metal species from the outer, optically thin part of this CSM. We find that the CSM is consistent with an eruption caused by the injection of ∼5 × 1046 erg into the stellar envelope ∼300 d pre-explosion, potentially from a nuclear burning instability at the onset of oxygen burning. Light-curve fitting, nebular spectroscopy, and pre-explosion HST imaging consistently point to a red supergiant (RSG) progenitor with $M_{\rm ZAMS}\approx 13.5\!-\!15 \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$, typical for SN II progenitor stars. This finding demonstrates that a typical RSG, like the progenitor of SN 2020fqv, has a complicated mass-loss history immediately before core collapse.

Tinyanont, Samaporn (ORCID:0000000214814676)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data for "Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the shared socioeconomic pathways"

Datasets supporting findings and visualizations behind McManamay et al. (2024) Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the shared socioeconomic pathways. Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2eec Using a spatial modeling experiment at high resolution (1-km), this study compared how two alternative US population projections, varying in the spatially explicit nature of demographic patterns and migration, affect urban land dynamics simulated by the Spatially Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City development (SELECT) model for SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5. The numerical experiment, inputs and outputs are fully described in McManamay et al. (2024). The datasets summarize SELECT model simulations within urban areas and rural areas of the conterminous United States. For code to reproduce the results, please refer to https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/mcmanamay_etal_2024_erl Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details. Descriptions of the datasets are provided below. Dataset(s) Descriptions: Urban_Land_delta_UA_County.csv: Urban land area for original (default) population, updated population, and urban land delta (difference between the two) according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and year. Urban land is summarized for U.S. counties (FIPS code) and urban areas (GEOID) as unique areas within various counties. JO_Gao_pop_ufdelta.csv: Comparison of population differences and urban land differences between the origial (default) and updated population projections. City_Case_studies.csv: Differences in urban land areas arising from different population projections summarized for selected cities (Atlanta, Los Angeles, Houston, and New York) and their surrounding rural areas UA_county_FID.zip: Zipped folder of .tiff file depicting unique combination of urban areas and US counties used for summarizing urban land differences in urban and rural areas based on different population projections. ULD_clusters.zip: Zipped folder of .csv files depicting normalized changes in urban land delta (difference in urban land arising from population projections) and the respective Ward's hierarchical clusters, which group urban and rural areas based on similarities in temporal trends. Urban_Percent_change_2100.zip: Zipped folder of .csv files depicting percent changes in urban land area for year 2100 based on differences in the original (default) population and updated population. Each file is for SSPs and urban or rural areas.

Land↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning To Assess Patterns of Areal Change in Waterbodies across the Contiguous United States

Lake and reservoir surface areas are an important proxy for freshwater availability. Advancements in machine learning (ML) techniques and increased accessibility of remote sensing data products have enabled the analysis of waterbody surface area dynamics on broad spatial scales. However, interpreting the ML results remains a challenge. While ML provides important tools for identifying patterns, the resultant models do not include mechanisms. Thus, the “black-box” nature of ML techniques often lacks ecological meaning. Using ML, we characterized temporal patterns in lake and reservoir surface area change from 1984 to 2016 for 103,930 waterbodies in the contiguous United States. We then employed knowledge-guided machine learning (KGML) to classify all waterbodies into seven ecologically interpretable groups representing distinct patterns of surface area change over time. Many waterbodies were classified as having “no change” (43%), whereas the remaining 57% of waterbodies fell into other groups representing both linear and nonlinear patterns. This analysis demonstrates the potential of KGML not only for identifying ecologically relevant patterns of change across time but also for unraveling complex processes that underpin those changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗