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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Precision test of statistical dynamics with state-to-state ultracold chemistry

Chemical reactions represent a class of quantum problems that challenge both the current theoretical understanding and computational capabilities1. Reactions that occur at ultralow temperatures provide an ideal testing ground for quantum chemistry and scattering theories, because they can be experimentally studied with unprecedented control, yet display dynamics that are highly complex. Here we report the full product state distribution for the reaction 2KRb → K 2 + Rb 2 . Ultracold preparation of the reactants allows us complete control over their initial quantum degrees of freedom, whereas state-resolved, coincident detection of both products enables the probability of scattering into each of the 57 allowed rotational state-pairs to be measured. Our results show an overall agreement with a state-counting model based on statistical theory, but also reveal several deviating state-pairs. In particular, we observe a strong suppression of population in the state-pair closest to the exoergicity limit as a result of the long-range potential inhibiting the escape of products. Finally, the completeness of our measurements provides a benchmark for quantum dynamics calculations beyond the current state of the art.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1982

A bootstrap approach to bump hunting

An important question in cluster analysis and pattern recognition is the determination of the number of clusters into which a given population should be divided. Frequently, particularly when certain specific clustering methods are being used, the number of clusters is taken to be equal to the number of modes, or local maxima, in the probability density function underlying the given data set. The use of kernal density estimates in mode estimation is discussed. The test statistic to be used is defined and a bootstrap technique for assessing significance is given. An illustrative application is followed by an examination of the asymptotic behavior of the test statistic.

Silverman, B. W.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A coronagraphic search for brown dwarfs around nearby stars

Brown dwarf companions have been searched for around stars within 10 pc of the Sun using the Johns-Hopkins University Adaptive Optics Coronagraph (AOC), a stellar coronagraph with an image stabilizer. The AOC covers the field around the target star with a minimum search radius of 1 sec .5 and a field of view of 1 arcmin sq. We have reached an unprecedented dynamic range of Delta m = 13 in our search for faint companions at I band. Comparison of our survey with other brown dwarf searches shows that the AOC technique is unique in its dynamic range while at the same time just as sensitive to brown dwarfs as the recent brown dwarf surveys. The present survey covered 24 target stars selected from the Gliese catalog. A total of 94 stars were detected in 16 fields. The low-latitude fields are completely dominated by background star contamination. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests were carried out for a sample restricted to high latitudes and a sample with small angular separations. The high-latitude sample (b greater than or equal to 44 deg) appears to show spatial concentration toward target stars. The small separation sample (Delta Theta less than 20 sec) shows weaker dependence on Galactic coordinates than field stars. These statistical tests suggest that both the high-latitude sample and the small separation sample can include a substantial fraction of true companions. However, the nature of these putative companions is mysterious. They are too faint to be white dwarfs and too blue for brown dwarfs. Ignoring the signif icance of the statistical tests, we can reconcile most of the detections with distant main-sequence stars or white dwarfs except for a candidate next to GL 475. Given the small size of our sample, we conclude that considerably more targets need to be surveyed before a firm conclusion on the possibility of a new class of companions can be made.

Nakajima, T.↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Exact and Near-Exact Distribution Approach to the Behrens–Fisher Problem

The Behrens–Fisher problem occurs when testing the equality of means of two normal distributions without the assumption that the two variances are equal. This paper presents approaches based on the exact and near-exact distributions for the test statistic of the Behrens–Fisher problem, depending on different combinations of even or odd sample sizes. We present the exact distribution when both sample sizes are odd and the near-exact distribution when one or both sample sizes are even. The near-exact distributions are based on a finite mixture of generalized integer gamma (GIG) distributions, used as an approximation to the exact distribution, which consists of an infinite series. The proposed tests, based on the exact and the near-exact distributions, are compared with Welch’s t-test through Monte Carlo simulations, in particular for small and unbalanced sample sizes. The results show that the proposed approaches are competent solutions to the Behrens–Fisher problem, exhibiting precise sizes and better powers than Welch’s approach for those cases. Numerical studies show that the Welch’s t-test tends to be a bit more conservative than the test statistics based on the exact or near-exact distribution, in particular when sample sizes are small and unbalanced, situations in which the proposed exact or near-exact distributions obtain higher powers than Welch’s t-test.

Hong, Serim↗
NASA NTRS1989

The distribution of galaxies in Abell 1975

The distribution of galaxies in the field of Abell 1795 is studied, based on a red photograph obtained with the Palomar 1.2 m Schmidt telescope. A battery of statistical tests has been applied to the positional data of galaxies in A 1795, in order to assess the significance of asymmetry and subclustering. The large-scale distribution of galaxies is asymmetric, with an elongation to the north. Although there appear to be two, or possibly three, clumps of galaxies in the cluster core, various statistical tests provide no convincing evidence for subclustering. This may be due to the small number of galaxies in the core. These results are discussed in light of the recent observations by Hill et al. (1988) that the cD galaxy in A 1795 has a large peculiar velocity with respect to the cluster mean.

Oegerle, William R.↗
NASA NTRS1996

On the Relationship Between Transit Velocity of Interplanetary Shocks and Solar Active Processes

Recently, it was reported that preferential relationships exist between the transit velocity V(sub T) of earthward-directed interplanetary shocks and solar active processes, in particular, eruptive filaments outside active regions (the size of the erupting filament L(sub f)) and solar flares (the value of the X-ray characteristic J). Unfortunately, statistical testing of the proposed associations was not accomplished, nor was the 'geo-effectiveness' of the events adequately described. Reported here are the results of a re-examination of the 21 eruptive filaments (SSC-EF events) and 26 X-ray flares (SSC-F events) that have been associated with storm sudden commencements (SSCs) at Earth. Simple statistical testing refutes the claim that a preferential relationship exists between V(sub T) and L(sub F), while it supports the claim that one exists between V(sub T) and J. More importantly, the inferred relationship between V(sub T) and J is found to be more complicated than previously thought. In particular, it now appears that SSC-F events may be separable into two groups, based on the value of J: a low-J group (J less than 56), in which V(sub T) varies directly with J, and a high-J group (J greater than 56), in which V(sub T) varies inversely with J. As a whole, high-J events are associated with shocks of higher average transit velocity than those of low-J events, and SSC-F events with shocks of higher average transit velocity than those of SSC-EF events. Further, high-J events tend to be of greater X-ray class ( greater than M3), longer duration (greater then 80 min), and are more likely to be associated with type II/IV radio emission (9 of 12) than low-J events. They also tend to occur in magnetically complex (gamma/delta configuration) active regions (10 of 12) that are large in area extent (area greater than 445 millionths of a solar hemisphere) on the day of flaring (9 of 12). Of the 9 solar proton events that affected the Earth's environment that were found to be associated with SSC-F events, six were high-J events. Concerning 'geo-effectiveness', there appears to be no preferential relationship between the value of the J-parameter and the most negative value of the Dst geomagnetic index Dst(min) following the SSC, which is found to usually occur at 6-14 h after SSC onset (18 of 26) and which ranged in value from -1 to -249 (having a median value of about -75). Of the 26 SSC-F events, only 14 can be associated with a Dst(min) less than or equal to -75, and of these only 7 were high-J events. Of the 14 storm-related events (i.e. Dst(min) less than or equal to -75), three have previously been identified as being either 'magnetic clouds' or 'bidirectional flows', both manifestations of earthward-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Superposed epoch analyses of selected solar wind parameters and Dst during the interval of storm-related SSC-F events demonstrate that geoeffective SSC-F events tend to be associated with solar wind flows that are faster, greater in magnetic field strength, and have a rotating field which has a strong southward component shortly after SSC onset, in comparison to SSC-F events that do not have Dst(min) less than or equal to 75. Therefore, it is inferred that geoeffective SSC-F events are probably fast earthward-directed CMEs. Although no single parameter is found that can serve as a predictor of high-skill level for determining the geoeffectiveness of an SSC-F event prior to its occurrence at Earth, one finds that knowledge of the flare's hemispheric location and appearance or lack of appearance of a two-ribbon structure is sufficient to correctly predict the geoeffectiveness of 20 out of 25 of the SSC-F events (80%). Surprisingly, the association or lack of association of metric type II/IV radio emission as a characteristic for determining the geoeffectiveness of the SSC-F events proved unfruitful, as did, to a lesser extent, the duration of the X-ray emission.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Can we identify lensed gamma-ray bursts?

A gravitationally lensed gamma-ray burst (GRB) would appear as multiple bursts with identical light curves, separated in time and differing only by the scaling of their amplitudes. In reality, the detected bursts will be noisy, and therefore they may be difficult to identify as lensed images. Furthermore, faint, intrinsically similar, yet distinct light curves may be falsely identified as lensing events. In this paper we develop two statistical tests to distinguish noisy burst light curves. We use Fourier analysis techniques to analyze the signals for both intrinsic variability and variability due to noise. We are able to determine the noise level, and we compare the bursts only at frequency channels that are signal dominated. Utilizing these methods, we are able to make quantitative statements about whether two bursts are distinct. We apply these statistics to scaled versions of two subbursts of GRB 910503 -- subbursts previously investigated by Wambsganss using a different statistical test. We find that our methods are able to distinguish these bursts at slightly smaller amplitudes than those at which Wambsganss's method succeeds. We then apply our techniques to 'candidate' lensing events taken from the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) catalog, and we find that nearly all of them, except for the very shortest ones (durations approx. less than 3 sec), are distinguishable. We therefore expect that a majority of bursts will be distinguishable from one another.

Nowak, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Quantitative Validation of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) for ISS Missions

Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) provided observed medical event data on 33 ISS and 111 STS person-missions for use in further improving and validating the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). Using only the crew characteristics from these observed missions, the newest development version, IMM v4.0, will simulate these missions to predict medical events and outcomes. Comparing IMM predictions to the actual observed medical event counts will provide external validation and identify areas of possible improvement. In an effort to improve the power of detecting differences in this validation study, the total over each program ISS and STS will serve as the main quantitative comparison objective, specifically the following parameters: total medical events (TME), probability of loss of crew life (LOCL), and probability of evacuation (EVAC). Scatter plots of observed versus median predicted TMEs (with error bars reflecting the simulation intervals) will graphically display comparisons while linear regression will serve as the statistical test of agreement. Two scatter plots will be analyzed 1) where each point reflects a mission and 2) where each point reflects a condition-specific total number of occurrences. The coefficient of determination (R2) resulting from a linear regression with no intercept bias (intercept fixed at zero) will serve as an overall metric of agreement between IMM and the real world system (RWS). In an effort to identify as many possible discrepancies as possible for further inspection, the -level for all statistical tests comparing IMM predictions to observed data will be set to 0.1. This less stringent criterion, along with the multiple testing being conducted, should detect all perceived differences including many false positive signals resulting from random variation. The results of these analyses will reveal areas of the model requiring adjustment to improve overall IMM output, which will thereby provide better decision support for mission critical applications.

validation↗
NASA NTRS2014

Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013

This Technical Publication (TP) is part 2 of a two-part study of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that occurred during the weather satellite era, 1960-2013. In particular, this TP examines the inferred statistical relationships between 25 tropical cyclone parameters and 9 specific climate-related factors, including the (1) Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), (2) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), (3) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, (4) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) index, (5) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), (6) NAO index of the Climate Research Unit (CRU), (7) Armagh surface air temperature (ASAT), (8) Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), and (9) Mauna Loa carbon dioxide (CO2) (MLCO2) index. Part 1 of this two-part study examined the statistical aspects of the 25 tropical cyclone parameters (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.) and provided the results of statistical testing (i.e., runs-testing, the t-statistic for independent samples, and Poisson distributions). Also, the study gave predictions for the frequencies of the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), number of hurricanes (NH), number of major hurricanes (NMH), and number of United States land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH) expected for the 2014 season, based on the statistics of the overall interval 1960-2013, the subinterval 1995-2013, and whether the year 2014 would be either an El Niño year (ENY) or a non-El Niño year (NENY).

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Testing for periodicity of extinction

The statistical techniques used by Raup and Sepkoski (1984 and 1986) to identify a 26-Myr periodicity in the biological extinction record for the past 250 Myr are reexamined, responding in detail to the criticisms of Stigler and Wagner (1987). It is argued that evaluation of a much larger set of extinction data using a time scale with 51 sampling intervals supports the finding of periodicity. In a reply by Sigler and Wagner, the preference for a 26-Myr period is attributed to a numerical quirk in the Harland et al. (1982) time scale, in which the subinterval boundaries are not linear interpolations between the stage boundaries but have 25-Myr periodicity. It is stressed that the results of the stringent statistical tests imposed do not disprove periodicity but rather indicate that the evidence and analyses presented so far are inadequate.

Raup, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Detection of large-scale alignment of Lick counts around Abell clusters

The possible tendency of galaxies to be distributed in an aligned fashion, on sheets or filaments, on scales greater than the Abell radius, has been tested by a variety of statistics. The subject remains controversial because the statistical tests have either not been sensitive to the alignment or capable of unambiguously signalling alignment in a general, clumpy distribution of galaxies. The present approach combines ideas of Bingelli (1982) and Fry and Peebles (1980) in an examination of the cross correlation of Lick counts relative to the preferred direction defined by the cluster. This can substantially reduce the noise, and it is suggested on this basis that alignment has been found on large scales for Lick galaxy counts and Abell cluster positions and their angles.

Argyres, P. C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Power Curve Working Group's assessment of wind turbine power performance prediction methods

Wind turbine power production deviates from the reference power curve in real-world atmospheric conditions. Correctly predicting turbine power performance requires models to be validated for a wide range of wind turbines using inflow in different locations. The Share-3 exercise is the most recent intelligence-sharing exercise of the Power Curve Working Group, which aims to advance the modeling of turbine performance. The goal of the exercise is to search for modeling methods that reduce error and uncertainty in power prediction when wind shear and turbulence digress from design conditions. Herein, we analyze data from 55 wind turbine power performance tests from nine contributing organizations with statistical tests to quantify the skills of the prediction-correction methods. We assess the accuracy and precision of four proposed trial methods against the baseline method, which uses the conventional definition of a power curve with wind speed and air density at hub height. The trial methods reduce power-production prediction errors compared to the baseline method at high wind speeds, which contribute heavily to power production; however, the trial methods fail to significantly reduce prediction uncertainty in most meteorological conditions. For the meteorological conditions when a wind turbine produces less than the power its reference power curve suggests, using power deviation matrices leads to more accurate power prediction. We also determine that for more than half of the submissions, the data set has a large influence on the effectiveness of a trial method. Overall, this work affirms the value of data-sharing efforts in advancing power curve modeling and establishes the groundwork for future collaborations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1983

Cleanroom certification model

The Cleanroom software development methodology is designed to take the gamble out of product releases for both suppliers and receivers of the software. The ingredients of this procedure are a life cycle of executable product increments, representative statistical testing, and a standard estimate of the MTTF (Mean Time To Failure) of the product at the time of its release. A statistical approach to software product testing using randomly selected samples of test cases is considered. A statistical model is defined for the certification process which uses the timing data recorded during test. A reasonableness argument for this model is provided that uses previously published data on software product execution. Also included is a derivation of the certification model estimators and a comparison of the proposed least squares technique with the more commonly used maximum likelihood estimators.

Currit, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

On Determining the Rise, Size, and Duration Classes of a Sunspot Cycle

The behavior of ascent duration, maximum amplitude, and period for cycles 1 to 21 suggests that they are not mutually independent. Analysis of the resultant three-dimensional contingency table for cycles divided according to rise time (ascent duration), size (maximum amplitude), and duration (period) yields a chi-square statistic (= 18.59) that is larger than the test statistic (= 9.49 for 4 degrees-of-freedom at the 5-percent level of significance), thereby, inferring that the null hypothesis (mutual independence) can be rejected. Analysis of individual 2 by 2 contingency tables (based on Fisher's exact test) for these parameters shows that, while ascent duration is strongly related to maximum amplitude in the negative sense (inverse correlation) - the Waldmeier effect, it also is related (marginally) to period, but in the positive sense (direct correlation). No significant (or marginally significant) correlation is found between period and maximum amplitude. Using cycle 22 as a test case, we show that by the 12th month following conventional onset, cycle 22 appeared highly likely to be a fast-rising, larger-than-average-size cycle. Because of the inferred correlation between ascent duration and period, it also seems likely that it will have a period shorter than average length.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model validation and error attribution for a drifting qubit

Qubit performance is often reported in terms of a variety of single-value metrics, each providing a facet of the underlying noise mechanism limiting performance. However, the value of these metrics may drift over long timescales, and reporting a single number for qubit performance fails to account for the low-frequency noise processes that give rise to this drift. Here, in this work, we demonstrate how we can use the distribution of these values to validate or invalidate candidate noise models. We focus on the case of randomized benchmarking (RB), where typically a single error rate is reported but this error rate can drift over time when multiple passes of RB are performed. We show that using a statistical test as simple as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic on the distribution of RB error rates can be used to rule out noise models, assuming the experiment is performed over a long enough time interval to capture relevant low frequency noise. With confidence in a noise model, we show how care must be exercised when performing error attribution using the distribution of drifting RB error rate.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗