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DOE OSTI2026

A data-driven approach to real-time vertical position estimation for NSTX-U vertical stability control

In this paper, a database of 77 996 plasma equilibrium reconstructions from 727 discharges during the initial operation of the NSTX-U spherical tokamak is analyzed to develop a statistically robust model of the plasma vertical position for real-time control. A variety of regression models are developed and tested, ranging in complexity from linear models to deep neural networks, and including input signals ranging from the four pairs of flux loops used historically on NSTX-U up to the full set of 389 real-time signals available to the plasma control system. A linear model based on 140 real-time magnetics signals is found to offer excellent accuracy, with a coefficient of determination R 2 = 0.906. The robustness of this model to limited training data, new operating scenarios, and signal errors is tested, and a procedure is demonstrated to tune the model parameters to optimize its robustness. A time-dependent plasma equilibrium solver, TokaMaker, is used to simulate vertical stability control in NSTX-U, demonstrating that it should be possible to iteratively tune the parameters of a linear vertical position model to stabilize both positive and negative triangularity plasmas in future experiments.

magnetic diagnostics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of the HAE activity in the TJ-II stellarator using a Landau closure model

The aim of this study is to analyze the stability of helical Alfvén eigenmodes (HAEs) in TJ-II discharges and the stabilizing effect of the energetic particles generated by the neutral beam injector (NBI) on pressure gradient-driven modes (PGDMs). HAE and PGDM stability is studied using the linear version of the gyro-fluid code FAR3d and the continuous structure by the STELLGAP code. First, Alfvén eigenmode (AE) and PGDM activity observed in the experiments is reproduced by the simulations, identifying unstable m/n = 4/7 − 2/3 and 7/12 − 5/8 HAEs triggered around ρ = 0.66 showing a frequency of 209 and 204 kHz, respectively, as well as 5/3 PGDM. Next, a parametric study is performed with respect to the thermal ion density and iota profile in the middle-outer plasma region to verify the robustness of the simulation results with respect to the uncertainty of experimental profiles. The analysis confirms that experimental uncertainty does not cause large deviations in the simulation results, showing the destabilization of the same HAEs for all the configurations tested. The simulations also indicate the decay of the 5/3 PGDM growth rate as the energetic particle (EP) population in the plasma increases, consistent with the experiment. Stability analysis of the n = 3, 7, 11, n = 5, 9, 13, n = 6, 10, 14, and n = 8, 12 helical families is performed with respect to the NBI operational regime for different EP energies, β as well as deposition profiles. The most unstable configuration is the radially localized on-axis NBI operation (stiff EP density profile gradients nearby the magnetic axis). Using the simulation model that reproduces the observed Alfvén activity, we extend the study to analyze NBI performance within a theoretical framework. It shows that increasing NBI voltage (which raises EP energy) leads to a degradation in NBI performance for a given power (related to EP β and their density). To achieve better NBI operation, higher voltage must be balanced with lower injection power, ensuring stable AEs while keeping the same EP β.

Plasma confinement↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stress Testing California's Hydroclimatic Whiplash: Potential Challenges, Trade‐Offs and Adaptations in Water Management and Hydropower Generation

Abstract Inter‐annual precipitation in California is highly variable, and future projections indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydroclimatic “whiplash.” Understanding the implications of these shocks on California's water system and its degree of resiliency is critical from a planning perspective. Therefore, we quantify the resilience of reservoir services provided by water and hydropower systems in four basins in the western Sierra Nevada. Using downscaled runoff from 10 climate model outputs, we generated 200 synthetic hydrologic whiplash sequences of alternating dry and wet years to represent a wide range of extremes and transitional conditions used as inputs to a water system simulation model. Sequences were derived from upper (wet) and lower (dry) quintiles of future streamflow projections (2030–2060). Results show that carryover storage was negatively affected in all basins, particularly in those with lower storage capacity. All basins experienced negative impacts on hydropower generation, with losses ranging from 5% to nearly 90%. Reservoir sizes and inflexible operating rules are a particular challenge for flood control, as in extremely wet years spillage averaged nearly the annual basins' total discharge. The reliability of environmental flows and agricultural deliveries varied depending on the basin, intensity, and duration of whiplash sequences. Overall, wet years temporarily rebound negative drought effects, and greater storage capacity results in higher reliability and resiliency, and lesser volatility in services. We highlight potential policy changes to improve flexibility, increase resilience, and better equip managers to face challenges posed by whiplash while meeting human and environmental needs.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design of a separate effects MiniFuel irradiation experiment investigating microstructure evolution in high burnup UO 2

The microstructural evolution of UO 2 fuel pellets during commercial operation in light water reactors (LWRs) is known to vary significantly across the pellet radius due to spatial variations in local temperature and burnup. The primary obstacle to extending LWR refueling cycles to 24-month intervals is the susceptibility of certain high burnup fuel microstructures to fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) during a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). Although FFRD of the high burnup structure in the rim region of a pellet is well studied, the fine fragmentation that has been observed in a second region, near the midradius of the pellet (termed the “dark zone”) following mock LOCA testing of high burnup commercial fuel rods is less understood. This paper describes the design, analysis, and execution of a separate effects MiniFuel irradiation experiment that aims to identify the specific temperature and burnup regimes under which FFRD-susceptible dark zone microstructures form. The small disc specimens (3 mm diameter by ∼0.3 mm thick) enable more precise control of the relatively uniform temperature and burnup conditions. A total of 42 specimens were fabricated with typical LWR fuel densities (∼96%–98% of theoretical density) and grain sizes (∼12 μm) and are being irradiated over a range of temperatures (600°C–1000°C) and discharge burnups (50–72 MWd/kg-U) that bound the midradius region of high burnup LWR fuel. Fuel specimens with identical 235 U enrichments were inserted in two irradiation locations in the High Flux Isotope Reactor and are currently undergoing irradiation to further evaluate the impact of rate effects (fission rate, time at temperature) on the microstructural evolution. The fuel fabrication and the thermal and neutronic simulations used for designing the experiment are detailed in this paper. A secondary objective of the experiment is to observe fission gas release (FGR) under the various irradiation conditions, and this work provides first-order predictions of FGR from all fuel specimens. The insights gained from these experiments will inform future high burnup core designs that could minimize the formation of susceptible microstructures and ultimately enable 24-month refueling cycles while minimizing the fraction of the fuel susceptible to FFRD.

FFRD↗

DOE OSTI2025

River Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Using Machine Learning Models and Wireless Sensor Measurements

Simultaneous flooding&heat and droughts&heat events can potentially destabilize hydro-meteorological conditions to deteriorate the water quality of Neches River. Machine learning (ML) models utilizing wireless sensor measurements have been applied to predict water quality and optimize various water management strategies. This study aims to develop ML models to predict dissolved oxygen (DO) prediction under various hydro-meteorological conditions and enhance water management decision-making. Wireless sensor measurements of DO, water temperature, sample depth, conductivity, turbidity, and pH, along with discharge from the United States Geological Survey stations, are collected for model inputs at the Pine Island Bayou C749 station (PIB-C749) and Neches River Saltwater Barrier (SWB). Multilayer perceptron neural networks, recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory (LSTM), and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) with and without attention mechanism (AT) are tested to determine the best model, which is applied the rolling forecast method to predict 14-day DO. Traditional and recurrent transfer learning (TL and RTL) methods are adopted to overcome insufficient data at the SWB. The input feature importance analysis using the integrated gradients (IG) algorithm is applied to determine dominant inputs. The results show LSTM-based models are capable handling long sequential data. AT-BiLSTM and RTL-LSTM demonstrate the best performance at the PIB-C749 (RMSE=0.054) and the SWB (RMSE=0.028), respectively. TL and RTL methods significantly improve model performance at the SWB. DO, temperature, and pH show higher importance, consistent with hydrodynamics and water chemistry. Both best models are applied to predict 14-day DO and demonstrate reasonable performance for decision-making. Hydro-meteorological conditions of 2017 flood and 2012 drought events are simulated and reveal that possible hypoxia occurs after flooding due to increasing temperature and turbidity, and DO concentration decreases significantly under heat and drought conditions. In conclusion, LSTM-based models utilizing wireless sensor data can be a timely and effective approach to make appropriate decisions on water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Dataset

The Xanthos-Lake v1.0 dataset provides the input data, trained machine-learning models, and simulation outputs needed to characterize lake water balance, snow and ice conditions, and mixing-layer temperature within the Xanthos global hydrological modeling framework. The dataset supports lake representation across a wide range of lake sizes and hydroclimatic conditions by combining xLSIM, a basin-specific machine-learning emulator of lake snow, ice, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature, with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance model. The archive contains NetCDF datasets used to train and evaluate xLSIM, trained model weights, processed meteorological and lake-property inputs, and basin- and lake-category-specific simulation outputs. These materials are organized into four primary data groups, described below. Snowice_model_inputs: Contains the NetCDF input data used to train xLSIM. The xLSIM machine-learning framework uses three lake-based datasets. The meteorological forcing dataset provides monthly relative humidity, specific humidity, surface wind speed, maximum and minimum air temperature, downward longwave and shortwave radiation, snowfall, surface air pressure, and total precipitation. Lake surface area is included as an additional static predictor. The target-state dataset provides lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, and lake mixing-layer temperature, while a companion lake-surface dataset provides the lake ice-cover fraction. Before training, ice thickness and snow depth are converted from meters to centimeters, mixing-layer temperature is converted from kelvin to degrees Celsius and constrained to nonnegative values, and ice-cover fraction is converted from a fraction to a percentage. The predictor variables are normalized using statistics calculated across the selected lakes and time steps. Snowice_model_outputs: Contains the NetCDF outputs generated by xLSIM. For each basin, xLSIM produces a file containing observed and predicted lake-state variables for the training, validation, and testing periods. The modeled variables include lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice-cover fraction. For basins without a sufficiently persistent snow-and-ice signal, the emulator predicts only mixing-layer temperature. The outputs also include training and validation loss histories, the selected model configuration, identifiers of the lakes used in training, and SHAP-based feature-importance information at the global, lake, and seasonal-regime levels. The trained machine-learning model weights are provided separately within the dataset archive. Together, these files support model evaluation and subsequent coupling with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance framework. XanthosLAKES: Contains the NetCDF input data used by the Xanthos-Lake framework. Monthly meteorological inputs include relative and specific humidity, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, snowfall, and surface air pressure. Static lake-property datasets provide lake identifiers, geographic locations, surface area, volume, mean depth, elevation, drainage area, fetch, outlet-routing information, and associated Xanthos grid-cell attributes. Separate bathymetric datasets provide the coefficients of the area–depth and volume–depth relationships for each aggregated lake unit. GLEV-based records provide observed lake surface area and evaporation data used to initialize lake states, define reference conditions, and calibrate and evaluate the model. Xanthos-Lake Outputs: Contains the basin- and lake-category-specific NetCDF outputs generated by Xanthos-Lake. Monthly variables include lake surface area, storage volume, outlet discharge, evaporation rate, evaporation volume, lake–groundwater exchange, lake inflow, ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature. The files also contain lake-specific calibration and validation statistics, including normalized root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling–Gupta efficiency, and percent bias. Stored calibrated and derived parameters include the weir discharge coefficient, fractional freeboard, groundwater exchange coefficient, reference water level, corresponding reference surface area and storage volume, weir-width adjustment factor, and the fraction of routed inflow entering the lake. Basin identifiers, lake category, simulation period, calibration and validation periods, and parameter-schema information are retained as NetCDF metadata.

Abeshu, Guta [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2024

Validation of prediction capability of operating space for plasma initiation in MAST-U

DYON is a plasma initiation modelling code that solves the differential equation system of the full circuit equations (plasma current, active coil currents and eddy currents in full passive structures) and 0D global energy and particle balance equations (Kim 2022 Nucl. Fusion 62 126012). In order to test the capability of the full electromagnetic plasma initiation model to predict individual discharges in experiments and thus the operating space in the device, a dedicated experimental database was built in MAST-U by scanning the prefilled gas pressure p 0 and the induced loop voltage V loop . In the experimental operating space of p 0 and V loop the lower and the upper limits of p 0 are determined by the plasma breakdown failure and the plasma burn-through failure, respectively. The lower limit of V loop is determined by the plasma burn-through failure. By directly reading the control room data used in each discharge (i.e. currents in the solenoid, poloidal field coils, and toroidal field coils, p 0 , and gas puffing rate), the full electromagnetic DYON consistently predicted the failed breakdown, failed burn-through, and successful plasma initiation discharges in the experimental database, demonstrating its capability to predict the operating space for inductive plasma initiation. The Paschen curve calculated with the effective connection length in MAST-U indicates a much higher p 0 required for plasma breakdown than the experimental data, indicating that individual field line evaluation is necessary to calculate the quantitative requirements for Townsend breakdown. The demonstration in this paper shows that the full electromagnetic DYON could be a useful simulation tool to assess the feasibility of inductive plasma initiation and to optimise operating scenarios in future devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Linear gyrokinetic simulations of toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes in the Mega-Amp Spherical Tokamak

Linear gyrokinetic (GK) simulations using the Gyrokinetic Toroidal Code (GTC) have been performed to investigate Toroidicity-driven Alfvén Eigenmodes (TAEs) driven by the neutral beam injection (NBI) induced fast ions in the Mega-Amp Spherical Tokamak (MAST) to identify the non-perturbative and kinetic effects of thermal plasma. A specific TAE in MAST discharge 26887, with an on-axis NBI power of approximately 1.5 MW and plasma current around 800 kA, exhibited frequency chirping, and the tangential soft x-ray camera array resolved the radial mode structure peaked near |q|=1.5. Various excitation methods were used in the GTC linear simulations, illustrating this code's capability to realistically represent the mechanisms and behaviors of fast ion-driven TAEs in spherical tokamaks. The radial structures from these GK simulations closely match measurements and calculations performed using the NOVA ideal MHD code, though with the frequencies approximately 10 kHz lower, likely due to various kinetic and non-perturbative effects. The simulations measured the damping rates due to continuum damping, radiative damping, and ion Landau damping, revealing that ion Landau damping has the most significant contribution to the total damping rate of the TAE. A comparison of growth rates of TAEs excited by fast ion Maxwellian and slowing-down distributions shows that the TAEs excited by a fast ion anisotropic pitch distribution (as part of the slowing-down distributions) are more unstable compared to those excited by a Maxwellian distribution with an equivalent fast ion beta. This shows that the use of fast ion anisotropy alters the number of fast ions to be in shear Alfvén resonance, and hence, it can greatly affect the stability of TAEs. These tests can be performed with the GTC but impossible with ideal MHD simulations, highlighting the necessity of kinetic simulations such as the GTC for a precise prediction of the TAE stability.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the thermal effect and methyl radical production in nanosecond repetitively pulsed glow discharges applied to a methane-air flame

In this work, we investigated non-equilibrium plasma produced by nanosecond repetitively pulsed glow discharges applied across a lean premixed methane-air flame. The flame is stationary, axisymmetric, and laminar. The discharges are applied on the symmetry axis crossing the reactant gases, flame front, and product gases, allowing phase-locked averaged measurements and comparisons with axisymmetric numerical simulations. The thermal effect and methyl radical production are quantified in the discharge in the reactant gas region. One-dimensional, two-beam, hybrid, femtosecond-picosecond, coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering is used to acquire spatial and temporal profiles of temperature and oxygen-to-nitrogen concentration ratio. Photo-fragmentation laser-induced fluorescence is used to acquire quantitative two-dimensional profiles of methyl radicals in the discharge providing the first quantitative imaging of methyl produced ahead of a flame by plasma-induced methane dissociation. The spatial profiles of temperature and oxygen-to-nitrogen concentration ratio are in steady state, indicating that individual discharges have an insignificant heating effect. Upper and lower bounds of the produced mole fraction of methyl radicals in the plasma are obtained due to uncertainties in the collisional quenching rates of excited state methylidyne radicals in the plasma. The discharges produce a maximum of 600–1100 ppm of methyl radicals upstream of the flame front within 25 ns. This amount is similar to the predicted methyl mole fraction for the flame without plasma and thus represents a significant chemical perturbation to the reactants upstream of the flame front. The produced methyl follows an exponential decay in the first microsecond after the discharge with a decay constant of 8 µs close to the flame, and 0.8 µs further from the flame. The decay then deviates from the exponential curve and the methyl persists for tens of microseconds. The results suggest that for the tested configuration, the thermal effect of individual discharges through fast gas heating is negligible, while active chemical species are produced in large quantities in the reactant gases, upstream of the flame front.

hybrid fs-ps CARS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimized V1G and V2G Electric Vehicle Fleet Management and Grid Transaction at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego, CA

The overall technical goal of the project was to demonstrate an all-electric bi-directional non-tactical fleet at Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Miramar that was integrated and controlled with other distributed energy resources (DERs) (i.e., PV, stationary battery, and building loads) to provide resilience to critical electric loads in the event of grid outages, to minimize charging costs, and to provide economic energy resources to electricity markets. In this project, the specific, technical objectives were: 1. Demonstrate that bi-directional electric vehicles can provide critical complementary services to fixed storage batteries in microgrid applications while performing function as non-tactical vehicles. 2. Demonstrate participation of bi-directional (V2G) and unidirectional (V1G) PEVs for demand management and minimization of charging costs. 3. Demonstrate integration of multiple DERs for grid service participation. US Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Miramar in San Diego was the site of this electric vehicle-to-microgrid-utility grid test and demonstration project. Existing microgrid assets in this study included (1) a public works building; (2) a 30-kW rooftop photovoltaic (PV) system and (3) a separate 250 kW carport PV system. In this project, six bi-directional V2G vans were located at the MCAS Miramar’s showcase building-scale microgrid to develop and test technical capabilities that V2G can provide in microgrid applications (e.g., cost reduction and resiliency). These resources provided aggregated demand management and simulated participation in current retail DR programs. The vehicles used in this demonstration were selected because they provided functionality that MCAS Miramar needed, 15 passenger transport and facilities work cargo carrying capacity, and bi-directional charging capability that the research project required. All vehicles in this study were manufactured and distributed by VIA Motors, Inc. There were six vehicles total and each was VIA’s VTRUX eREV V2G model, a modified General Motors Chevrolet 2500 2WD van. Three of the vans were configured as passenger vans and the other three were configured as cargo vans. Each van had an on-board bi-direcrtional inverter/charger, Bel Power Solutions model 350INVCHGT150-120-240-8G nominally rated at +/-15 kW. The VIA van’s charging connector follows the J1772 charging protocol. The bi-directional EVSEs demonstrated in this study were manufactured by Coritech, Inc. Each VGI-80-AC charging station enabled enhanced V2G charging capability to a Clipper Creek CS-100 charging module. The enhanced capabilities included ethernet communication following the SEP2.0 protocol with a distributed energy resource function set and an operator screen displaying real-time SOC, voltage, and current. The VGI-80-AC charging stations are classified as level 2 with a maximum current output of 80 A or effectively 19 kW. The VIA van’s onboard charger limited the charging and discharging power to 15 kW in each direction. A control computer was installed in the EWOC and connected to an existing monitor. The V2G control communication network was a completely stand-alone closed system that did not have any connection to any other networks on the base. A cybersecure remote communication connection was created with a cellular modem, firewall hardware, and a virtual private network configuration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

MPEX AI Digital Twins

All magnetically confined plasma fusion power plant concepts (Tokamak, Spherical Tokamak, Stellarator, Mirror, ...) must exhaust the heat and plasma from the core confinement region to the material walls. The primary channel for this exhaust is through a plasma divertor which directs plasma along open magnetic field lines to a material target. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) illustrated in Figure 1, is a high-power, steady-state linear plasma device designed to produce the plasma material interaction (PMI) conditions of the divertor of future magnetic confinement fusion power plants: energy flux 20MW/m 2 , ion fluence 1031/m 2 , pulse duration 106 sec. These goals of plasma exposure in MPEX are well beyond those achieved in magnetic fusion experimental devices. Successfully achieving these high power steady state conditions for long pulses requires operational control of the heating and particle sources and the plasma flux to the walls and target. The MPEX AI Hot Spot Controller, proposed in this project, will help achieve the operational milestones of MPEX. The MPEX device will begin commissioning at the end of FY26. A smaller proto-MPEX was operated for 14,666 plasma discharges and will resume operation in September of 2025 as proto-MPEX-lite, with reduced capability, to test a new window for the Helicon plasma source. The proto-MPEX data has undergone surrogate modeling with machine learning methods (R. Archibald, 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data). This proto-MPEX data will be used to begin development of the AI digital twins described in this white paper. The scientific mission of MPEX is to qualify materials of different composition for use in the high energy and plasma flux conditions of a fusion power plant. The materials exposed in MPEX will in some cases be exposed to high neutron fluxes at other ORNL facilities to measure the changes to their PMI properties. The targets exposed in MPEX will be transported under vacuum to a Surface Analysis Station (SAS). The SAS will be equipped with the following diagnostics: Focused Ion Beam (FIB) for trench milling, 100-400 angstrom resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM), surface mapping x-ray spectrometer, high resolution camera, and a future upgrade to a laser induced breakdown spectroscopy quadruple mass spectrometer (LIBS-QMS). The MPEX experiments will generate diverse pre- and post-exposure measurement data of detailed material properties down to the crystal grain level in 3D for post-exposure assessment of PMI damage (e.g. cracking, melting, erosion and redeposition of the material). Physics models for the PMI, and how the material composition and manufacturing impact its performance under high energy plasma exposure, need to be validated with MPEX data to guide the selection of new candidate materials. Our vision for the MPEX AI Digital Twins project is to supply experimental and physics model simulation data to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for data processing, analysis, operational control, PMI and materials simulation to maximize the scientific output of the MPEX device. Ultimately, an AI digital twin of MPEX material assessment metrics for tested and synthetic material types with simulated PMI will be trained by the AI Modeling Teams on the experimental and physics simulation data submitted to the American Science Cloud by this project. A purely empirical search for the best material is inefficient given the finite number of samples that can be tested on MPEX. In order to expand the material properties database for training the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin, and to gain physics understanding of the PMI processes, physics models of the material properties and PMI processes are required. The physics simulations provide detailed simulation data, like impact angles for plasma ions, sputtering yields, transport of the ionized sputtered target material in the plasma, and redeposition locations. This simulation data expands the measurement data for deeper physics understanding. The experimental data is essential to validate the PMI and material structure simulation models. The validated models can then be used to generate new simulation data of MPEX material assessments for synthetic material compositions that have not been exposed in MPEX. These predictive simulations, plus the whole experimental dataset, will be used to train the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin allowing a rapid generative AI search for new materials with reduced PMI damage by interpolating the domain of the training set. These new optimum materials can be simulated with the physics codes and/or tested in MPEX. The ability of AI neural networks to interpolate multi-dimensional parameter spaces and generate virtual data is exploited for a more efficient search for optimum materials. The advent of the Transformational AI Models Consortium (TAIMC) is an opportunity to engage with state of the art private and public AI developers to achieve the goals of the AI digital twins and AI accelerated physics models proposed in this project. Our partners at ORNL from the Advance Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) organization will collaborate in accelerating the integrated plasma material interaction simulation framework. This simulation framework will provide a platform for generating simulation data across a range of physical fidelities, including hybrid methods that produce multi-fidelity results. This data will be leveraged for AI model development, both for generation of surrogates and the automation of simulation campaigns. A part of the research below will include collaborative efforts with the TAIMC to (i) adapt data storage approaches to ensure AI-readiness, (ii) provide a protypical exemplar to inform and exercise constructed workflows, and (iii) generate and share data, using the TAIMC unified AI data standard, for foundational models that will be trained from multiple sources across the DOE complex. We will also collaborate with the TAIMC, as well as the planned AI modeling teams, to develop approaches for reducing the cost of data generation. These include tailored multi-fidelity approaches as well as fine-tuning strategies to augment general, large-scale foundational models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global Gyrokinetic Simulations of Isotope Effects under Ambipolar Electric Fields and Advances Toward Whole-Volume Modeling

We review global gyrokinetic simulation studies on plasma transport in the Large Helical Device using XGC-S. XGC-S is an extended version of X-point Gyrokinetic Code for stellarators and has been progressively verified throughout the code development process. Verification tests of neoclassical transport successfully demonstrate the generation of an ambipolar electric field due to ripple-trapped particles. We perform quasi-linear analyses of the ion temperature gradient mode under the influence of the ambipolar electric field. The results reveal that the ambipolar electric field and the heavy hydrogen component in mixed isotope plasmas can lead to the favorable isotope effect observed in recent deuterium experiments. We also present recent efforts in code development toward whole-volume simulations, including the helical divertor region. A mesh generation scheme based on field-line tracing and the construction of curved surfaces perpendicular to the magnetic field would be promising for global field calculations in the whole-volume simulations.

Basic Plasma Phenomena and Gas Discharges↗

DOE OSTI2025

Three-Dimensional Heat Flux and Thermal Analysis of Angled Tungsten Samples on DIII-D

ITER-grade tungsten and dispersoid-strengthened tungsten samples with the top surface angled at ~15° towards the incident plasma flux were exposed to 9 H-mode discharges with edge-localized modes (ELMs) in the lower divertor of DIII-D tokamak using the Divertor Material Evaluation System (DiMES). Surface damage included cracking and flaking of material on the two samples farthest away from the plasma strike point, and significant melting of the two samples closest to the strike point. Heat flux and thermal analysis tools new to DIII-D have been applied to better understand this material response and to help optimize the exposure conditions for future experiments. SMITER field-line tracing simulations based on IRTV data and EFIT equilibria estimate an average inter-ELM perpendicular heat flux, 𝑞⊥,𝑖nter−𝐸LM , on the angled surfaces of 10.1 – 19.6 MW/m² for a majority of the 9 discharges, increasing to 15.6 – 24.5 MW/m² for the single, higher-power shot where samples melted. Fast camera data showed shallow intra-ELM melting and re-solidification, which transitioned to bulk inter-ELM melting with melt motion in the 𝐽⃗ 𝑥 𝐵⃗ direction. About 50% of the protruding volume of the most affected sample was displaced via melt-motion. SIERRA thermal modeling software was able to reproduce an onset time of melting consistent with fast camera data and final sample conditions, within < 200 ms. Maximum surface temperatures of 3122 K and 2787 K are estimated for the samples farthest away from the strike point, while the closest samples achieve melting at 4067 ms and 4750 ms into the ~5000 ms plasma exposure. A +10% increase in both the SMITER 𝑞⊥,𝑖nter−𝐸LM calculations and the estimated ELM heat loads 𝑞⊥, 𝐸LM was required to achieve this result, which is within the uncertainty of the diagnostic data but likely accounts for non-ideal geometry effects plus other physics uncertainties not included in this first iteration of modeling. This work provided valuable estimates of the 3D temperature evolution to help better understand the observed surface morphology and internal recrystallization of samples, which are discussed in detail in a complementary manuscript [1]. Benchmarking efforts with more diagnosed DIII-D experiments are underway to further refine the SMITER and SIERRA models for DiMES. Future use of these tools will enable researchers to precisely target heat flux exposure conditions in DIII-D to test, but not exceed, the thermomechanical limitations of novel plasma-facing materials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

1D modeling of plasma streamers at ammonia-air flame conditions

Abstract Self-consistent 1D modeling of streamers in ammonia-oxygen-nitrogen-water mixtures has been performed in this work. A fluid model that includes species transport, electrostatic potential, and detailed chemistry was developed and verified. This model is then used to simulate the avalanche, streamer formation and propagation phases, driven by a nanosecond voltage pulse, at different thermochemical conditions derived from a 1D laminar premixed ammonia-air flame. The applicability of the Meek’s criterion in predicting the streamer inception location was successfully confirmed. Streamer formation and propagation duration were found to vary significantly with different thermochemical conditions, due to the difference in ionization rates. The thermochemical state also affected the breakdown characteristics which was tested by maintaining the background reduced electric field constant. Detailed kinetic analyses revealed the importance of O ( 1 D ) in the production of key radicals, such as O, OH, and NH 2 . Furthermore, the contributions of the dissociative electronic excitation of NH 3 towards the production of H and NH 2 radicals have also been reported. Spatial and temporal evolution of the electron energy loss fractions for various inelastic collision processes at different thermochemical states uncovered the input plasma energy spent of fuel dissociation and the large variability in the dominant processes during the avalanche and streamer propagation phases. The methodology and analyses reported in this work are key towards developing effective strategies for controlled nanosecond-pulsed non-equilibrium plasma sources used for ammonia ignition and flame stabilization.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗