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At least 55 records · Page 3

Examples of data assimilation in mesoscale models

The keynote address was the problem of physical initialization of mesoscale models. The classic purpose of physical or diabatic initialization is to reduce or eliminate the spin-up error caused by the lack, at the initial time, of the fully developed vertical circulations required to support regions of large rainfall rates. However, even if a model has no spin-up problem, imposition of observed moisture and heating rate information during assimilation can improve quantitative precipitation forecasts, especially early in the forecast. The two key issues in physical initialization are the choice of assimilating technique and sources of hydrologic/hydrometeor data. Another example of data assimilation in mesoscale models was presented in a series of meso-beta scale model experiments with and 11 km version of the MASS model designed to investigate the sensitivity of convective initiation forced by thermally direct circulations resulting from differential surface heating to four dimensional assimilation of surface and radar data. The results of these simulations underscore the need to accurately initialize and simulate grid and sub-grid scale clouds in meso- beta scale models. The status of the application of the CSU-RAMS mesoscale model by the NOAA Forecast Systems Lab for producing real-time forecasts with 10-60 km mesh resolutions over (4000 km)(exp 2) domains for use by the aviation community was reported. Either MAPS or LAPS model data are used to initialize the RAMS model on a 12-h cycle. The use of MAPS (Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System) model was discussed. Also discussed was the mesobeta-scale data assimilation using a triply-nested nonhydrostatic version of the MM5 model.

Carr, Fred↗

Unsteady Land-Sea Breeze Circulations in the Presence of a Synoptic Pressure Forcing

Unsteady land-sea breezes (LSBs) that result from time-varying surface temperature contrasts Δθ(t) are explored in the presence of a constant synoptic pressure forcing, M g , oriented from sea to land (α = 0°) or land to sea (α = 180°). Large eddy simulations reveal the development of four distinctive regimes, depending on the joint interaction between M g , α, and Δθ(t) in modulating the fine-scale dynamics. Time lags, computed as the shifts that maximize correlation coefficients of the velocity between the unsteady and the corresponding steady scenarios at Δθ = Δθ max , are found to be significant and to extend 2 hr longer for α = 0° compared to α = 180°. These diurnal dynamics result in nonequilibrium conditions that are significantly affected by the flow history, and that behave differently over the two patches for the different α’s. Turbulence is found to be out of equilibrium with the mean flow, and the mean itself is found to be out of equilibrium with the thermal forcing. The sea surface heat flux is consistently more sensitive than its land counterpart to the time-varying external forcing Δθ(t), and more so for synoptic forcing from land to sea (α = 180°). Hence, although the land reaches equilibrium faster, the sea patch is found to exert a stronger control on the turbulence-mean flow equilibrium response. Finally, the vertical velocity profile at the shore and shore-normal velocity transects at the first grid level are shown to encode the multiscale regimes of the LSBs evolution and can thus be used to identify these regimes using k-means clustering.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

System Level Analysis Software Validation with Argonne's THETA Experimental Facility (Final CRADA Report)

Under this CRADA, the Contractor will be generating and collecting sodium-based experimental data with modern instrumentation. The Contractor will work symbiotically with the Participant to generate SAS4A/SASSYS-1 and SAM computational models of the THETA experimental facility for validation of the system-level analysis codes utilized by Oklo, Inc. This effort will be specifically focused on the design basis event space scoped by Chapter 15 of the NRC’s Standard Review Plan (NUREG-0800) with an emphasis on natural circulation and thermal stratification phenomena in a prototypic sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Activity in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3 (20CRv3) and Its Relationship with Continental Extreme Temperatures

In this study, we detect and track extratropical cyclones using 6-hourly mean sea level pressure data taken from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3) over the period 1951–2015 and compare them with those in the Interim and fifth generation of ECMWF reanalyses over the period 1979–2018. Three indices were employed to characterize cyclone activity, including cyclone count, cyclone intensity, and a cyclone activity index (CAI) that combines the count and intensity. The results show that the cyclone indices in the three datasets have comparable annual climatologies and seasonal evolution over the northern extratropical land and ocean in recent decades. Based on the cyclone indices over the period 1951–2010 in 80 ensemble members of 20CRv3, cyclone count and intensity are negatively correlated in winter and tend to be positively and weakly correlated in summer. The interannual CAI variability is dominated by the cyclone count variability. Regional mean cyclone activity can be well represented using the ensemble average cyclone index. We then examined the linkage of the cyclone activity in 20CRv3 and observed cold and warm extremes over Eurasia and North America over the period 1951–2010. In winter, the principal components of interannual cold and warm extreme anomalies are more correlated with the regional mean cyclone count index over Eurasia, while they are more correlated with the cyclone intensity index over North America. The temperature anomalies associated with the regional and ensemble mean cyclone count index explain about 10% (20%) of interannual cold (warm) extreme variances averaged over Eurasia. The temperature anomalies associated with the mean cyclone intensity explain about 10% of interannual cold and warm extreme variances over North America. Large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in association with cyclone activity and the induced temperature advection drive temperature anomalies over Eurasia and North America. In summer, circulation and thermal advection anomalies associated with cyclone activity are weak over the two continents. Hence, that season’s relationship between cyclone activity and extreme temperature variability is weak.

20CRv3↗

Some aspects of the circulation of Mars

Estimates of vertical temperature structure, heat balance, solstice circulation, and thermally driven tides on Mars in comparison with like conditions on Earth

HEAT BALANCE↗

Possible rainfall reduction through reduced surface temperatures due to overgrazing

Surface temperature reduction in terrain denuded of vegetation (as by overgrazing) is postulated to decrease air convection, reducing cloudiness and rainfall probability during weak meteorological disturbances. By reducing land-sea daytime temperature differences, the surface temperature reduction decreases daytime circulation of thermally driven local winds. The described desertification mechanism, even when limited to arid regions, high albedo soils, and weak meteorological disturbances, can be an effective rainfall reducing process in many areas including most of the Mediterranean lands.

Otterman, J.↗

Planets of the solar system

Venera and Mariner spacecraft and ground based radio astronomy and spectroscopic observations of the atmosphere and surface of venus are examined. The composition and structural parameters of the atmosphere are discussed as the basis for development of models and theories of the vertical structure of the atmosphere, the greenhouse effect, atmospheric circulation and cloud cover. Recommendations for further meteorological studies are given. Ground based and Pioneer satellite observation data on Jupiter are explored as well as calculations and models of the cloud structure, atmospheric circulation and thermal emission field of Jupiter.

Kondratyev, K. Y.↗

Numerical simulation of a sudden stratospheric warming with a three-dimensional, spectral, quasi-geostrophic model

An analysis of a sudden stratospheric warming which developed spontaneously during a winter simulation with a three-dimensional quasi-geostrophic model is described. Changes in the circulation and thermal structure of the winter polar stratosphere that occurred during the warming are shown to be in close agreement with observed behavior: enhanced vertical flux of eddy energy into the stratosphere, rapid temperature increase in high latitudes with a reversal of the zonal mean temperature gradient between midlatitude and pole, destruction of the circumpolar cyclonic vortex, and a marked deceleration of the westerly jet and the appearance of zonal mean easterlies. Energies of the warming are also consistent with observed characteristics. Many aspects of the dynamical development of the present model simulation are shown to agree with a previous model simulation, but there are also areas of disagreement.

Grose, W. L.↗

A numerical model simulation of the regional air pollution meteorology of the greater Chesapeake Bay area - Summer day case study

The mesoscale numerical model of the University of Virginia (UVMM), has been applied to the greater Chesapeake Bay area in order to provide a detailed description of the air pollution meteorology during a typical summer day. This model provides state of the art simulations for land-sea thermally induced circulations. The model-predicted results agree favorably with available observed data. The effects of synoptic flow and sea breeze coupling on air pollution meteorological characteristics in this region, are demonstrated by a spatial and temporal presentation of various model predicted fields. A transport analysis based on predicted wind velocities indicated possible recirculation of pollutants back onto the Atlantic coast due to the sea breeze circulation.

Segal, M.↗

Gravity waves in the middle atmosphere: Recent progress and needed studies

The recent recognition of the important role played by gravity waves in the large-scale circulation and thermal structure of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has stimulated considerable research on their properties and their middle atmosphere effects. For example, these studies have begun to provide important information on gravity wave scales, propagation, filtering, and the processes responsible for saturation and turbulent diffusion. There remain, however, many areas in which our current understanding of middle atmosphere gravity waves is deficient. The purpose here is to review the progress that has been made to date and to suggest areas in which additional studies are most needed. Gravity wave scales, gravity wave saturation mechanisms, turbulence production and turbulent diffusion, and distribution of gravity wave energies and momentum fluxes with height and time are discussed.

Fritts, D. C.↗

Trace element and isotope geochemistry of Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary sediments: identification of extra-terrestrial and volcanic components

Trace element and stable isotope analyses were performed on a series of sediment samples crossing the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary from critical sections at Aumaya and Sopelano, Spain. The aim is to possibly distinguish extraterrestrial vs. volcanic or authigenic concentration of platinum group and other elements in K-T boundary transitional sediments. These sediments also have been shown to contain evidence for step-wise extinction of several groups of marine invertebrates, associated with negative oxygen and carbon isotope excursions occurring during the last million years of the Cretaceous. These isotope excursions have been interpreted to indicate major changes in ocean thermal regime, circulation, and ecosystems that may be related to multiple events during latest Cretaceous time. Results to date on the petrographic and geochemical analyses of the Late Cretaceous and Early Paleocene sediments indicate that diagenesis has obviously affected the trace element geochemistry and stable isotope compositions at Zumaya. Mineralogical and geochemical analysis of K-T boundary sediments at Zumaya suggest that a substantial fraction of anomalous trace elements in the boundary marl are present in specific mineral phases. Platinum and nickel grains perhaps represent the first direct evidence of siderophile-rich minerals at the boundary. The presence of spinels and Ni-rich particles as inclusions in aluminosilicate spherules from Zumaya suggests an original, non-diagenetic origin for the spherules. Similar spherules from southern Spain (Caravaca), show a strong marine authigenic overprint. This research represents a new approach in trying to directly identify the sedimentary mineral components that are responsible for the trace element concentrations associated with the K-T boundary.

Margolis, S. V.↗

Satellite observations of variations in tropical cyclone convection caused by upper-tropospheric troughs

Satellite observations and numerical model results have been used to study the relationship between upper-tropospheric forcing and the oscillation of convection of tropical cyclones Florence (1988) and Irene (1981) during their mature stage over open warm oceans (SST greater than or equal to 26 C). It is suggested that the initiation and maintenance of intense convective outbreaks in tropical cyclones are related to the channeling and strengthening of their outflow by upper-tropospheric troughs. It is possible to enhance the convection in response to the outflow jet-induced import of eddy relative angular momentum and ascending motion associated with the thermally direct circulation. Both Florence and Irene are found to intensify after the onset of these convective episodes. It is also suggested that the cessation in the convection of the two tropical cyclones occurs when the upper-tropospheric troughs move near or over the tropical cyclones, resulting in the weakening of their outflow and the entrainment of dry upper-tropospheric air into their inner core.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗

Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model for Weather Support to the United States Space Program

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) conducted a year-long evaluation of NCEP's 29-km mesoscale Eta (meso-eta) weather prediction model in order to identify added value to forecast operations in support of the United States space program. The evaluation was stratified over warm and cool seasons and considered both objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective verification results generally indicate that meso-eta model point forecasts at selected stations exhibit minimal error growth in terms of RMS errors and are reasonably unbiased. Conversely, results from the subjective verification demonstrate that model forecasts of developing weather events such as thunderstorms, sea breezes, and cold fronts, are not always as accurate as implied by the seasonal error statistics. Sea-breeze case studies reveal that the model generates a dynamically-consistent thermally direct circulation over the Florida peninsula, although at a larger scale than observed. Thunderstorm verification reveals that the meso-eta model is capable of predicting areas of organized convection, particularly during the late afternoon hours but is not capable of forecasting individual thunderstorms. Verification of cold fronts during the cool season reveals that the model is capable of forecasting a majority of cold frontal passages through east central Florida to within +1-h of observed frontal passage.

Manobianco, John↗

Design and Testing of a Cryogenic Capillary Pumped Loop Flight Experiment

This paper details the flight configuration and pre-flight performance test results of the fifth generation cryogenic capillary pumped loop (CCPL-5). This device will fly on STS-95 in October 1998 as part of the CRYOTSU Flight Experiment. This flight represents the first in-space demonstration of a CCPL, a miniaturized two-phase fluid circulator for thermally linking cryogenic cooling sources to remote cryogenic components. CCPL-5 utilizes N2 as the working fluid and has a practical operating range of 75-110 K. Test results indicate that CCPL-5, which weighs about 200 grams, can transport over 10 W of cooling a distance of 0.25 m (or more) with less than a 5 K temperature drop.

Bugby, David C.↗

Design and Testing of a Cryogenic Capillary Pumped Loop Flight Experiment

This paper details the flight configuration and pre-flight performance test results of the fifth generation cryogenic capillary pumped loop (CCPL-5). This device will fly on STS-95 in October 1998 as part of the CRYOTSU Flight Experiment. This flight represents the first in-space demonstration of a CCPL; a miniaturized two-phase fluid circulator for thermally linking cryogenic components. CCPL-5 utilizes N2 as the working fluid and has a practical operating range of 75-110 K. Test results indicate that CCPL-5, which weighs about 200 grams, can transport over 10 W of cooling a distance of 0.25 m (or more) with less than a 5 K temperature drop.

Bugby, David C.↗

Gravity Wave Forcing of the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere: Mountain and Convective Waves Ascending Vertically (MaCWAVE)

The specific objectives of this research effort included the following: 1) Quantification of gravity wave propagation throughout the lower and middle atmosphere in order to define the roles of topographic and convective sources and filtering by mean and low-frequency winds in defining the wave field and wave fluxes at greater altitudes; 2) The influences of wave instability processes in constraining wave amplitudes and fluxes and generating turbulence and transport; 3) Gravity wave forcing of the mean circulation and thermal structure in the presence of variable motion fields and wave-wave interactions, since the mean forcing may be a small residual when wave interactions, anisotropy, and momentum and heat fluxes are large; 4) The statistical forcing and variability imposed on the thermosphere at greater altitudes by the strong wave forcing and interactions occurring in the MLTI.

Fritts, David C.↗

A Review of Radiolysis Concerns for Water Shielding in Fission Surface Power Applications

This paper presents an overview of radiolysis concerns with regard to water shields for fission surface power. A review of the radiolysis process is presented and key parameters and trends are identified. From this understanding of the radiolytic decomposition of water, shield pressurization and corrosion are identified as the primary concerns. Existing experimental and modeling data addressing concerns are summarized. It was found that radiolysis of pure water in a closed volume results in minimal, if any net decomposition, and therefore reduces the potential for shield pressurization and corrosion. With the space program focus m emphasize more on permanent return to the Moon and eventually manned exploration of Mars, there has been a renewed look at fission power to meet the difficult technical & design challenges associated with this effort. This is due to the ability of fission power to provide a power rich environment that is insensitive to solar intensity and related aspects such as duration of night, dusty environments, and distance from the sun, etc. One critical aspect in the utilization of fission power for these applications of manned exploration is shielding. Although not typically considered for space applications, water shields have been identified as one potential option due to benefits in mass savings and reduced development cost and technical risk (Poston, 2006). However, the water shield option requires demonstration of its ability to meet key technical challenges including such things as adequate natural circulation for thermal management and capability for operational periods up to 8 years. Thermal management concerns have begun to be addressed and are not expected to be a problem (Pearson, 2007). One significant concern remaining is the ability to maintain the shield integrity through its operational lifetime. Shield integrity could be compromised through shield pressurization and corrosion resulting from the radiolytic decomposition of water.

Schoenfeld, Michael P.↗