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At least 55 records · Page 3

Stratospheric conductivity variations over thunderstorms

This paper reports the first in-situ observation of variations in the electrical conductivity over thunderstorms at 26 km altitude. The vector electric field, positive and negative polar conductivity, and optical lightning power/flash were measured by payloads on superpressure balloons in the Southern Hemisphere in early 1984. It is found that in 72 percent of the thunderstorm periods observed (or in 23 of 32 periods) there were clear cases of conductivity variations while the balloons were over the thunderstorms. Examples from two separate balloons at widely separated dates and locations showing both daytime and nighttime events are presented. The conductivity measurements are made with the relaxation technique, and the vector field measurements are based on the double Langmuir probe high-impedance method. It is found that the positive and negative conductivity measurements vary independently and have a different temporal profile than the dc electric field. The polar conductivity variations can exceed a factor of 2 at this altitude. In seven of the nine most intense thunderstorm events the total conductivity increased, while in only one of these nine events did it decrease (one event had no change). Implications of these observations for global current patterns are discussed.

Holzworth, R. H.↗

The use of Doppler radar to help forecast the development of thunderstorms

The role of Doppler radars in forecasting the location and timing of the initiation of thunderstorms both over Kennedy Space Center and central Florida is analyzed. The data used in this analysis was collected with two Doppler radars with high temporal and spatial resolution throughout the troposphere. Previous studies of thunderstorm initiation in the vicinity of Kennedy Space Center, including synoptic and site-specific observations are outlined. As a result of the analysis of nine cases of thunderstorm initiation, it is concluded that an expert system could be developed that would take input data from the existing field mill network, instrumented tower network, lightning detection system, from sounding, and from Doppler-radar-based algorithms. Such a system would be able to determine a probability of thunderstorm development in the next 10, 20, and 30 minutes for the area of interest.

Eilts, Michael D.↗

Observations of severe turbulence near thunderstorm tops

Data derived from the flight tapes of two airliners that experienced severe turbulence near thunderstorm tops are used to produce quantitative descriptions of the turbulence and its environment. The likely turbulence-producing processes include a three-dimensional turbulent wake in the lee of a squall line and an updraft in the top of a thunderstorm. Results suggest that current procedures for using surface and airborne weather radar for routing aircraft near thunderstorm tops should be reexamined. Also, although useful rules for safe flight near thunderstorm tops already exist, there is evidence that they are not universally applied.

Pantley, K. C.↗

Thunderstorm coupling to the magnetosphere and associated ionospheric effects

This project deals with the coupling of electromagnetic energy released during a thunderstorm to the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. Both the effects of an individual lightning event as well the aggregate of all the lightning events during a thunderstorm are considered. Energy in the very low frequency (VLF) band can play a variety of roles in the magnetospheric and ionospheric physics: generation of plasmaspheric hiss believed to be responsible for the slot region in the radiation belts, generation of lower hybrid waves that can heat ions in the auroral and subauroral regions, precipitation of energetic electrons, ionospheric heating etc. While these phenomena have been identified, and characterized to some extent, the influence and role of thunderstorm energy on the magnetosphere and ionosphere at a global scale is not known. Only recently, simultaneous high resolution (temporal and spatial) data sets from ground based lightning detectors and space and ground based VLF detectors have become available, and thus it has become possible to raise a question of the kind mentioned above and try to answer it quantitatively. Work on the correlation between individual lightning discharges in a thunderstorm as detected by the lightning network and the whistlers observed on the DE-1 satellite continued during this period. Results are summarized.

Inan, Umran S.↗

Red Sprites and Blue Jets: Transient Electrical Effects of Thunderstorms on the Middle and Upper Atmospheres

Four new and diverse classes of energetic electrical effects of thunderstorms have been documented over the past 5 years. Two of these classes, called red sprites and blue jets, are large-scale optical emissions excited by lightning. Together they span the entire distance between tops of some thunderstorms and the ionosphere. Gamma-ray (1 MeV) bursts and extremely intense VHF radio bursts some 10(exp 4) times larger than normally produced by lightning have been observed from low Earth orbit and are also believed to originate in thunderstorms. Taken together, these newly discovered classes of natural electrical phenomena provide evidence that thunderstorms are both more energetic and capable of electrically interacting with the upper atmosphere and ionosphere to a far greater degree than has been appreciated in the past. Here, characteristics of red sprites and blue jets are summarized.

Sentman, D. D.↗

Electric Field Profiles over Hurricanes, Tropical Cyclones, and Thunderstorms with an Instrumented ER-2 Aircraft

Over the past several years, we have flown a set of calibrated electric field meters (FMs) on the NASA high altitude ER-2 aircraft over oceanic and landbased storms in a number of locations. These included tropical oceanic cyclones and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Atlantic ocean during the Third and Fourth Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-3,1998; CAMEX-4, 2001), thunderstorms in Florida during the TExas FLorida UNderflight (TEFLUN, 1998) experiment, tropical thunderstorms in Brazil during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (TRMM LBA, 1999), and finally, hurricanes and tropical cyclones in the Caribbean and Western Pacific and thunderstorms in Central America during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP, 2005) mission. Between these various missions we have well over 50 sorties that provide a unique insights on the different electrical environment, evolution and activity occurring in and around these various types of storms. In general, the electric fields over the tropical oceanic storms and hurricanes were less than a few kilovolts per meter at the ER-2 altitude, while the lightning rates were low. Land-based thunderstorms often produced high lightning activity and correspondingly higher electric fields.

Mach, Doug M.↗

Nowcasting Thunderstorm Anvil Clouds Over KSC/CCAFS

Electrified thunderstorm anvil clouds extend the threat of natural and triggered lightning to space launch and landing operations far beyond the immediate vicinity of thunderstorm cells. The deep convective updrafts of thunderstorms transport large amounts of water vapor, super-cooled water droplets and ice crystals into the upper troposphere, forming anvil clouds, which are then carried downstream by the prevailing winds in the anvil formation layer. Electrified anvil clouds have been observed over the space launch and landing facilities of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), emanating from thunderstorm activity more than 200 km distant. Space launch commit criteria and flight rules require launch and landing vehicles to avoid penetration of the non-transparent portion of anvil clouds. The life cycles of 167 anvil clouds over the Florida peninsula and its coastal waters were documented using GOES-8 visible imagery on 50 anvil case days during the months of May through July 2001. Anvil clouds were found to propagate at the speed and direction of upper-tropospheric winds in the layer from 300-to-l50 mb, approximately 9.4 km to 14 km, with an effective average transport lifetime of 2 hours and a standard deviation of approximately 30 minutes. The effective lifetime refers to the time required for the nontransparent leading edge of an anvil cloud to reach its maximum extent before beginning to dissipate. The propagation and lifetime information was incorporated into the design, construction and implementation of an objective short-range anvil forecast tool based on upper-air observations, for use on the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System within the Range Weather Operations facility of the 45th Weather Squadron at CCAFS and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group at Johnson Space Center.

Short, David A.↗

Lightning Jump Algorithm and Relation to Thunderstorm Cell Tracking, GLM Proxy and Other Meteorological Measurements

The lightning jump algorithm has a robust history in correlating upward trends in lightning to severe and hazardous weather occurrence. The algorithm uses the correlation between the physical principles that govern an updraft's ability to produce microphysical and kinematic conditions conducive for electrification and its role in the development of severe weather conditions. Recent work has demonstrated that the lightning jump algorithm concept holds significant promise in the operational realm, aiding in the identification of thunderstorms that have potential to produce severe or hazardous weather. However, a large amount of work still needs to be completed in spite of these positive results. The total lightning jump algorithm is not a stand-alone concept that can be used independent of other meteorological measurements, parameters, and techniques. For example, the algorithm is highly dependent upon thunderstorm tracking to build lightning histories on convective cells. Current tracking methods show that thunderstorm cell tracking is most reliable and cell histories are most accurate when radar information is incorporated with lightning data. In the absence of radar data, the cell tracking is a bit less reliable but the value added by the lightning information is much greater. For optimal application, the algorithm should be integrated with other measurements that assess storm scale properties (e.g., satellite, radar). Therefore, the recent focus of this research effort has been assessing the lightning jump's relation to thunderstorm tracking, meteorological parameters, and its potential uses in operational meteorology. Furthermore, the algorithm must be tailored for the optically-based GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), as what has been observed using Very High Frequency Lightning Mapping Array (VHF LMA) measurements will not exactly translate to what will be observed by GLM due to resolution and other instrument differences. Herein, we present some of the promising aspects and challenges encountered in utilizing objective tracking and GLM proxy data, as well as recent results that demonstrate the value added information gained by combining the lightning jump concept with traditional meteorological measurements.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

An Examination of Aviation Accidents Associated with Turbulence, Wind Shear and Thunderstorm

The focal point of the study reported here was the definition and examination of turbulence, wind shear and thunderstorm in relation to aviation accidents. NASA project management desired this information regarding distinct subgroups of atmospheric hazards, in order to better focus their research portfolio. A seven category expansion of Kaplan's turbulence categories was developed, which included wake turbulence, mountain wave turbulence, clear air turbulence, cloud turbulence, convective turbulence, thunderstorm without mention of turbulence, and low altitude wind shear, microburst or turbulence (with no mention of thunderstorms).More than 800 accidents from flights based in the United States during 1987-2008 were selected from a National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database. Accidents were selected for inclusion in this study if turbulence, thunderstorm, wind shear or microburst was considered either a cause or a factor in the accident report, and each accident was assigned to only one hazard category. This report summarizes the differences between the categories in terms of factors such as flight operations category, aircraft engine type, the accident's geographic location and time of year, degree of injury to aircraft occupants, aircraft damage, age and certification of the pilot and the phase of flight at the time of the accident.

Evans, Joni K.↗

The Deep Space Gateway Lightning Mapper (DLM) - Monitoring Global Change and Thunderstorm Processes Through Observations of Earth's High-Latitude Lightning from Cis-Lunar Orbit

Function: Monitor global change and thunderstorm processes through observations of Earth's high-latitude lightning. This instrument will combine long-lived sampling of individual thunderstorms with long-term observations of lightning at high latitudes: How is global change affecting thunderstorm patterns; How do high-latitude thunderstorms differ from low-latitude? Why is the Gateway the optimal facility for this instrument / research: Expected DSG (Deep Space Gateway) orbits will provide nearly continuous viewing of the Earth's high latitudes (50 degrees latitude and poleward); These regions are not well covered by existing lightning mappers (e.g., Lightning Imaging Sensor / LIS, or Geostationary Lightning Mapper / GLM); Polar, Molniya, Tundra, etc. Earth orbits have significant drawbacks related to continuous coverage and/or stable FOVs (Fields of View).

Climate↗

A Survey of Thunderstorms That Produce Megaflashes Across the Americas

We previously observed that long-horizontal lightning flashes exceeding 100 km in length, known as “megaflashes,” occur preferentially in certain thunderstorms. In this study, we develop a cluster feature approach for automatically documenting the evolutions of thunderstorm systems from continuous lightning observations provided by the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). We apply this methodology to GOES-16 GLM observations from 2018 to mid-2022 to improve our understanding of megaflash-producing storms. We find that megaflashes occur in long-lived (median: 14 hr) storms that grow to exceptional sizes (median: 11,984 km 2 ) while they propagate across long distances (median: 622 km) compared to ordinary storms. The first megaflashes are typically produced within 15 min of the storm reaching its peak intensity and extent. However, most megaflashes occur ≥13 hr after the initial megaflash activity, and are sufficiently close to convection to suggest initiation in the thunderstorm core (where GLM has difficulty detecting faint early light sources from megaflashes). Megaflashes generated outside of convection are rare, accounting for 2.7% of the sample using a 50 km convective distance threshold, but also tend to be larger than normal megaflashes, possibly due to having direct access to electrified stratiform clouds through which megaflashes propagate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Illumination of Thunderclouds by Lightning: 4. Volumetric Thunderstorm Imagery

Optical instruments such as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) detect lightning based on transient changes in cloud illumination. The horizontal location of lightning is determined from the coordinates of the pixels on the imaging array illuminated during the flash. However, the vertical position of the lightning pulses (approximated by GLM “groups”) below the cloud top cannot be routinely measured from a single space-based instrument. In our prior work, we have developed a machine learning algorithm that can infer optical source altitude for a given pulse based on how the optical energy is distributed across the group footprint and the local Advanced Baseline Imager Cloud-Top Height (CTH). In this fourth part of our thundercloud illumination study, we leverage these source altitudes to generate volumetric GLM imagery of a Colombia thunderstorm. We find that 3D versions of the current GLM meteorological imagery products (that describe thunderstorm kinematics) and thundercloud imagery products (that depict how the flashes appear from space) provide additional insights into lightning activity in the thunderstorm that are lost in the vertical integration used to generate the current 2D GLM gridded products. This new volumetric imaging capability provides a more comprehensive picture of where lightning occurs in the storm, how its physical characteristics vary across three-dimensional space, and how its optical emissions interact with surrounding the cloud medium.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ground-based observations of thunderstorm-correlated fluxes of high-energy electrons, gamma rays, and neutrons

The Aragats Space Environmental Center facilities continuously measure fluxes of neutral and charged secondary cosmic ray incidents on the Earth's surface. Since 2003 in the 1-minute time series we have detected more than 100 enhancements in the electron, gamma ray, and neutron fluxes correlated with thunderstorm activities. During the periods of the count rate enhancements, lasting tens of minutes, millions of additional particles were detected. Based on the largest particle event of September 19, 2009, we show that our measurements support the existence of long-lasting particle multiplication and acceleration mechanisms in the thunderstorm atmosphere. For the first time we present the energy spectra of electrons and gamma rays from the particle avalanches produced in the thunderstorm atmosphere, reaching the Earth's surface.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Use of the negative binomial-truncated Poisson distribution in thunderstorm prediction

A probability model is presented for the distribution of thunderstorms over a small area given that thunderstorm events (1 or more thunderstorms) are occurring over a larger area. The model incorporates the negative binomial and truncated Poisson distributions. Probability tables for Cape Kennedy for spring, summer, and fall months and seasons are presented. The computer program used to compute these probabilities is appended.

Cohen, A. C.↗

Variation of the low level winds during the passage of a thunderstorm gust front

Three time histories of wind profiles in thunderstorm gust fronts at Cape Kennedy and three at Oklahoma City are analyzed. Wind profiles at maximum wind strength below 100 m follow logarithmic laws, so that winds above the surface layer can be estimated from surface winds once the roughness length is known. A statistical analysis of 81 cases of surface winds during thunderstorms at Tampa revealed no predictor with skill to predict the time of maximum gust. Some 34% of the variance of the strength of the gust is accounted for by a stability index and surface wind prior to the gust; the regression equations for these variables are given. The coherence between microscale wind speed variations at the different levels has the same proportions as in non-thunderstorm cases.

Sinclair, R. W.↗

The effect of cosmic rays on thunderstorm electricity

The inflow of charges of small ions, formed by cosmic rays, into thunderstorm cells is estimated on the basis of rocket measurements of ionic concentrations below 90 km. Out of the two processes that form the thunderstorm charge (generation and separation of charges), the former is supposed to be caused by cosmic rays, and the nature of separation is assumed to be the same as in other thunderstorm theories.

Bragin, Y. A.↗

Thunderstorms observed by radio astronomy Explorer 1 over regions of low man made noise

Radio Astronomy Explorer (RAE) I observations of thunderstorms over regions of low man-made noise levels are analyzed to assess the satellite's capability for noise source differentiation. The investigation of storms over Australia indicates that RAE can resolve noise generation due to thunderstorms from the general noise background over areas of low man-made noise activity. Noise temperatures observed by RAE over stormy regions are on the average 10DB higher than noise temperatures over the same regions in the absence of thunderstorms. In order to determine the extent of noise contamination due to distant transmitters comprehensive three dimensional computer ray tracings were generated. The results indicate that generally, distant transmitters contribute negligibly to the total noise power, being 30DB or more below contributions arriving from an area immediately below the satellite.

Caruso, J. A.↗

Wind shear and wet and dry thermodynamic indices as predictors of thunderstorm motion and severity and application to the AVE 4 experimental data

Two types of parameters are computed and mapped for use in assessing their individual merits as predictors of occurrence and severity of thunderstorms. The first group is comprised of equivalent potential temperature, potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and wind speed. Equivalent potential temperature maxima and strong gradients of equivalent potential temperature at the surface correlate well with regions of thunderstorm activity. The second type, comprised of the energy index, shear index, and energy shear index, incorporates some model dynamics of thunderstorms, including nonthermodynamic forcing. The energy shear index is found to improve prediction of tornadic and high-wind situations slightly better than other indices. It is concluded that further development and refinement of nonthermodynamic aspects of predictive indices are definitely warranted.

Connell, J. R.↗