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NASA NTRS2017

Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Throughput

Time-based flow management provides arrival aircraft schedules based on arrival airport conditions, airport capacity, required spacing, and weather conditions. In order to meet a scheduled time at which arrival aircraft can cross an airport arrival meter fix prior to entering the airport terminal airspace, air traffic controllers make regulations on air traffic. Severe weather may create an airport arrival bottleneck if one or more of airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by the weather and the arrival demand has not been reduced accordingly. Under these conditions, aircraft are frequently being put in holding patterns until they can be rerouted. A model that predicts the weather impacted meter fix throughput may help air traffic controllers direct arrival flows into the airport more efficiently, minimizing arrival meter fix congestion. This paper presents an analysis of air traffic flows across arrival meter fixes at the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). Several scenarios of weather impacted EWR arrival fix flows are described. Furthermore, multiple linear regression and regression tree ensemble learning approaches for translating multiple sector Weather Impacted Traffic Indexes (WITI) to EWR arrival meter fix throughputs are examined. These weather translation models are developed and validated using the EWR arrival flight and weather data for the period of April-September in 2014. This study also compares the performance of the regression tree ensemble with traditional multiple linear regression models for estimating the weather impacted throughputs at each of the EWR arrival meter fixes. For all meter fixes investigated, the results from the regression tree ensemble weather translation models show a stronger correlation between model outputs and observed meter fix throughputs than that produced from multiple linear regression method.

Machine Learning Model.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Development of the L-1011 four-dimensional flight management system

The development of 4-D guidance and control algorithms for the L-1011 Flight Management System is described. Four-D Flight Management is a concept by which an aircraft's flight is optimized along the 3-D path within the constraints of today's ATC environment, while its arrival time is controlled to fit into the air traffic flow without incurring or causing delays. The methods developed herein were designed to be compatible with the time-based en route metering techniques that were recently developed by the Dallas/Fort Worth and Denver Air Route Traffic Control Centers. The ensuing development of the 4-D guidance algorithms, the necessary control laws and the operational procedures are discussed. Results of computer simulation evaluation of the guidance algorithms and control laws are presented, along with a description of the software development procedures utilized.

Lee, H. P.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Flight Test Results: CTAS Cruise/Descent Trajectory Prediction Accuracy for En route ATC Advisories

The Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), under development at NASA Ames Research Center, is designed to assist controllers with the management and control of air traffic transitioning to/from congested airspace. This paper focuses on the transition from the en route environment, to high-density terminal airspace, under a time-based arrival-metering constraint. Two flight tests were conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) to study trajectory-prediction accuracy, the key to accurate Decision Support Tool advisories such as conflict detection/resolution and fuel-efficient metering conformance. In collaboration with NASA Langley Research Center, these test were part of an overall effort to research systems and procedures for the integration of CTAS and flight management systems (FMS). The Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle Boeing 737 airplane flew a combined total of 58 cruise-arrival trajectory runs while following CTAS clearance advisories. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared to CTAS and FMS predictions to measure trajectory-prediction accuracy and identify the primary sources of error for both. The research airplane was used to evaluate several levels of cockpit automation ranging from conventional avionics to a performance-based vertical navigation (VNAV) FMS. Trajectory prediction accuracy was analyzed with respect to both ARTCC radar tracking and GPS-based aircraft measurements. This paper presents detailed results describing the trajectory accuracy and error sources. Although differences were found in both accuracy and error sources, CTAS accuracy was comparable to the FMS in terms of both meter-fix arrival-time performance (in support of metering) and 4D-trajectory prediction (key to conflict prediction). Overall arrival time errors (mean plus standard deviation) were measured to be approximately 24 seconds during the first flight test (23 runs) and 15 seconds during the second flight test (25 runs). The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. Position and velocity estimates of the airplane provided to CTAS by the ATC Host radar tracker were found to be a relatively insignificant error source for the trajectory conditions evaluated. Airplane performance modeling errors within CTAS were found to not significantly affect arrival time errors when the constrained descent procedures were used. The most significant effect related to the flight guidance was observed to be the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. Lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and aircraft performance model errors.

Green, S.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of Flight Deck-Based Interval Management Crew Procedure Feasibility

Air traffic demand is predicted to increase over the next 20 years, creating a need for new technologies and procedures to support this growth in a safe and efficient manner. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration - 1 (ATD-1) will operationally demonstrate the feasibility of efficient arrival operations combining ground-based and airborne NASA technologies. The integration of these technologies will increase throughput, reduce delay, conserve fuel, and minimize environmental impacts. The ground-based tools include Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering for precise time-based scheduling and Controller Managed Spacing decision support tools for better managing aircraft delay with speed control. The core airborne technology in ATD-1 is Flight deck-based Interval Management (FIM). FIM tools provide pilots with speed commands calculated using information from Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast. The precise merging and spacing enabled by FIM avionics and flight crew procedures will reduce excess spacing buffers and result in higher terminal throughput. This paper describes a human-in-the-loop experiment designed to assess the acceptability and feasibility of the ATD-1 procedures used in a voice communications environment. This experiment utilized the ATD-1 integrated system of ground-based and airborne technologies. Pilot participants flew a high-fidelity fixed base simulator equipped with an airborne spacing algorithm and a FIM crew interface. Experiment scenarios involved multiple air traffic flows into the Dallas-Fort Worth Terminal Radar Control airspace. Results indicate that the proposed procedures were feasible for use by flight crews in a voice communications environment. The delivery accuracy at the achieve-by point was within +/- five seconds and the delivery precision was less than five seconds. Furthermore, FIM speed commands occurred at a rate of less than one per minute, and pilots found the frequency of the speed commands to be acceptable at all times throughout the experiment scenarios.

Wilson, Sara R.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Air Traffic Management Technology Demostration: 1 Research and Procedural Testing of Routes

NASA's Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration-1 (ATD-1) will operationally demonstrate the feasibility of efficient arrival operations combining ground-based and airborne NASA technologies. The ATD-1 integrated system consists of the Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering which generates precise time-based schedules to the runway and merge points; Controller Managed Spacing decision support tools which provide controllers with speed advisories and other information needed to meet the schedule; and Flight deck-based Interval Management avionics and procedures which allow flight crews to adjust their speed to achieve precise relative spacing. Initial studies identified air-ground challenges related to the integration of these three scheduling and spacing technologies, and NASA's airborne spacing algorithm was modified to address some of these challenges. The Research and Procedural Testing of Routes human-in-the-loop experiment was then conducted to assess the performance of the new spacing algorithm. The results of this experiment indicate that the algorithm performed as designed, and the pilot participants found the airborne spacing concept, air-ground procedures, and crew interface to be acceptable. However, the researchers concluded that the data revealed issues with the frequency of speed changes and speed reversals.

Wilson, Sara R.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Simulation evaluation of TIMER, a time-based, terminal air traffic, flow-management concept

A description of a time-based, extended terminal area ATC concept called Traffic Intelligence for the Management of Efficient Runway scheduling (TIMER) and the results of a fast-time evaluation are presented. The TIMER concept is intended to bridge the gap between today's ATC system and a future automated time-based ATC system. The TIMER concept integrates en route metering, fuel-efficient cruise and profile descents, terminal time-based sequencing and spacing together with computer-generated controller aids, to improve delivery precision for fuller use of runway capacity. Simulation results identify and show the effects and interactions of such key variables as horizon of control location, delivery time error at both the metering fix and runway threshold, aircraft separation requirements, delay discounting, wind, aircraft heading and speed errors, and knowledge of final approach speed.

Credeur, Leonard↗

NASA NTRS2012

NASA's ATM Technology Demonstration-1: Integrated Concept of Arrival Operations

This paper describes operations and procedures envisioned for NASA s Air Traffic Management (ATM) Technology Demonstration #1 (ATD-1). The ATD-1 Concept of Operations (ConOps) demonstration will integrate three NASA technologies to achieve high throughput, fuel-efficient arrival operations into busy terminal airspace. They are Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering (TMA-TM) for precise time-based schedules to the runway and points within the terminal area, Controller-Managed Spacing (CMS) decision support tools for terminal controllers to better manage aircraft delay using speed control, and Flight deck Interval Management (FIM) avionics and flight crew procedures to conduct airborne spacing operations. The ATD-1 concept provides de-conflicted and efficient operations of multiple arrival streams of aircraft, passing through multiple merge points, from top-of-descent (TOD) to touchdown. It also enables aircraft to conduct Optimized Profile Descents (OPDs) from en route altitude to the runway, using primarily speed control to maintain separation and schedule. The ATD-1 project is currently addressing the challenges of integrating the three technologies, and implantation into an operational environment. Goals of the ATD-1 demonstration include increasing the throughput of high-density airports, reducing controller workload, increasing efficiency of arrival operations and the frequency of trajectory-based operations, and promoting aircraft ADS-B equipage.

Baxley, Brian T.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration-1 Concept of Operations (ATD-1 ConOps), Version 2.0

This document is an update to the operations and procedures envisioned for NASA s Air Traffic Management (ATM) Technology Demonstration #1 (ATD-1). The ATD-1 Concept of Operations (ConOps) integrates three NASA technologies to achieve high throughput, fuel-efficient arrival operations into busy terminal airspace. They are Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering (TMA-TM) for precise time-based schedules to the runway and points within the terminal area, Controller-Managed Spacing (CMS) decision support tools for terminal controllers to better manage aircraft delay using speed control, and Flight deck Interval Management (FIM) avionics and flight crew procedures to conduct airborne spacing operations. The ATD-1 concept provides de-conflicted and efficient operations of multiple arrival streams of aircraft, passing through multiple merge points, from top-of-descent (TOD) to the Final Approach Fix. These arrival streams are Optimized Profile Descents (OPDs) from en route altitude to the runway, using primarily speed control to maintain separation and schedule. The ATD-1 project is currently addressing the challenges of integrating the three technologies, and their implantation into an operational environment. The ATD-1 goals include increasing the throughput of high-density airports, reducing controller workload, increasing efficiency of arrival operations and the frequency of trajectory-based operations, and promoting aircraft ADS-B equipage.

Baxley, Brian T.↗

NASA NTRS2015

The String Stability of a Trajectory-Based Interval Management Algorithm in the Midterm Airspace

NASA's first Air Traffic Management (ATM) Technology Demonstration (ATD-1) was created to facilitate the transition of mature ATM technologies from the laboratory to operational use. The technologies selected for demonstration are the Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering (TMA-TM), which provides precise time-based scheduling in the terminal airspace; Controller Managed Spacing (CMS), which provides terminal controllers with decision support tools enabling precise schedule conformance; and Interval Management (IM), which consists of flight deck automation that enables aircraft to achieve or maintain a precise spacing interval behind a target aircraft. As the percentage of IM equipped aircraft increases, controllers may provide IM clearances to sequences, or strings, of IM-equipped aircraft. It is important for these strings to maintain stable performance. This paper describes an analytic analysis of the string stability of the latest version of NASA's IM algorithm and a fast-time simulation designed to characterize the string performance of the IM algorithm. The analytic analysis showed that the spacing algorithm has stable poles, indicating that a spacing error perturbation will be reduced as a function of string position. The fast-time simulation investigated IM operations at two airports using constraints associated with the midterm airspace, including limited information of the target aircraft's intended speed profile and limited information of the wind forecast on the target aircraft's route. The results of the fast-time simulation demonstrated that the performance of the spacing algorithm is acceptable for strings of moderate length; however, there is some degradation in IM performance as a function of string position.

Swieringa, Kurt A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

System Performance of an Integrated Airborne Spacing Algorithm with Ground Automation

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) first Air Traffic Management (ATM) Technology Demonstration (ATD-1) was created to facilitate the transition of mature ATM technologies from the laboratory to operational use. The technologies selected for demonstration are the Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering (TMA-TM), which provides precise time-based scheduling in the Terminal airspace; Controller Managed Spacing (CMS), which provides controllers with decision support tools to enable precise schedule conformance; and Interval Management (IM), which consists of flight deck automation that enables aircraft to achieve or maintain precise spacing behind another aircraft. Recent simulations and IM algorithm development at NASA have focused on trajectory-based IM operations where aircraft equipped with IM avionics are expected to achieve a spacing goal, assigned by air traffic controllers, at the final approach fix. The recently published IM Minimum Operational Performance Standards describe five types of IM operations. This paper discusses the results and conclusions of a human-in-the-loop simulation that investigated three of those IM operations. The results presented in this paper focus on system performance and integration metrics. Overall, the IM operations conducted in this simulation integrated well with ground-based decisions support tools and certain types of IM operational were able to provide improved spacing precision at the final approach fix; however, some issues were identified that should be addressed prior to implementing IM procedures into real-world operations.

Swieringa, Kurt A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of the Controller-Managed Spacing Tools, Flight-Deck Interval Management and Terminal Area Metering Capabilities for the ATM Technology Demonstration #1

NASA has developed a suite of advanced arrival management technologies combining time-based scheduling with controller- and flight deck-based precision spacing capabilities that allow fuel-efficient arrival operations during periods of high throughput. An operational demonstration of these integrated technologies, i.e., the ATM Technology Demonstration #1 (ATD-1), is slated for 2016. Human-in-the-loop simulations were conducted to evaluate the performance of the ATD-1 system and validate operational feasibility. The ATD-1 system was found to be robust to scenarios with saturated demand levels and high levels of system delay. High throughput, 10 above baseline demand levels, and schedule conformance less than 20 seconds at the 75th percentile were achievable. The flight-deck interval management capabilities also improved the median schedule conformance at the final approach fix from 5 to 3 seconds with less variance.

terminal metering↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analyzing Double Delays at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR)

When weather or congestion impacts the National Airspace System, multiple different Traffic Management Initiatives can be implemented, sometimes with unintended consequences. One particular perceived inequity that is commonly identified is in the interaction between Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and time based scheduling of internal departures by the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) (now operationally superseded by the FAA's the Time-Based Flow Management system). Internal departures under TMA scheduling can take large GDP delays, followed by large TMA scheduling delays, because they cannot easily fit into the arrival flow at the runway. In this paper we examine the causes of these double delays through an analysis of arrival operations at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) from June to August 2010. TMA scheduling delays are found to be generally higher than TMA airborne metering delays, regardless of prior GDP delays. Depending on how the double delay is defined, between 42 and 62 of all internal departures in GDP and TMA scheduling experienced double delays in this period. A deep dive into the data reveals that contributors to double delays include upstream flights departing before their Expect Departure Clearance Times (EDCTs); differences in the rates used for setting EDCTs and TMA Scheduled Times of Arrival; differences in the arrival demand expected based on EDCTs and the arrival demand entering TMA; and shorter en route times between takeoff and entry into TMA than assumed in the calculation of flight EDCTs, all of which undermine the sequencing and spacing underlying flight EDCTs. Double delays are also found to coincide with periods in which the virtual runway arrival queue being served by a TMA is large, there are periods of high demand relative to capacity, and there are high airborne metering delays. Data mining techniques are used to confirm that each of these factors contribute to the occurrence of double delay andor high internal departure scheduling delay across three months of data from June to August 2010. Predictors of the occurrence of double delay and high TMA scheduling delay are built using logistic regression, providing prediction accuracies of 69 and 73, respectively.

traffic flow management↗

NASA NTRS2015

Arrival Scheduling with Shortcut Path Options and Mixed Aircraft Performance

Previous work introduced the concept of using tactical shortcut options to improve schedule conformance in terminal airspace. When a scheduling point is congested, aircraft are scheduled to longer nominal paths, holding shortcut path options in reserve for tactical use if an aircraft is late, thereby improving the schedule conformance, reducing the required scheduling buffer, and increasing throughput. When the scheduling point is less congested, aircraft may be scheduled to the shorter path with original larger scheduling buffers. Previous work focused on a single generic merge point serving aircraft with uniform arrival precision. This paper extends the previous concept to enhance the performance of time-based arrival management and consider mixed aircraft performance. Aircraft equipped to achieve a high degree of schedule conformance may be scheduled to the shorter path under the same conditions that a less equipped aircraft would be scheduled to the longer path, giving the equipped aircraft an advantage that can be seamlessly integrated into the scheduler. The arrival scheduler with shortcut path options for mixed aircraft performance is applied to a model of first-come first-served terminal metering at Los Angeles International Airport. Whereas clear system benefits were found for tactical shortcut routing and higher percentages of equipped aircraft, very little advantage could be seen for equipped over unequipped aircraft that could be used to incentivize early equipage.

Equipage operations↗

NASA NTRS1990

A description and evaluation of TIMER: A time-based terminal flow-control concept

A description of a time-based ATC concept called TIMER (Traffic Intelligence for the Management of Efficient Runway-scheduling) and the results of a fast time and real time computer evaluation are presented. The concept was designed to improve the efficiency of extended terminal area operations (en route approach, transition, and terminal flight to the runway). TIMER integrates en route metering, fuel efficient cruise and profile descents, terminal sequencing and spacing together with computer-generated controller aids, in order to fully use runway capacity and improve efficiency of delay absorption. The concept, by using simplified aircraft models, accommodates both 4-D and non 4-D equipped aircraft and is designed for integration into the manual, voice linked ATC system in an evolutionary manner and still be able to accommodate proposed system upgrade features such as data link and further ground automation. Fast time and real time computer simulation results identify and show the effects and interactions of such key variables as horizon of control, metering fix and final approach delivery time errors, aircraft separation requirements, delay discounting, wind, flight technical error, and knowledge of aircraft final approach speed. The current ATC system has a runway interarrival-error standard deviation of approx. 26 seconds. Simulation results indicate that, with computer aiding, the runway interarrival-error standard deviation for non 4-D equipped traffic can be reduced to the region of 8 to 12 seconds if expected final approach speed is known; however, the reduction is only in the region of 16 to 20 seconds if expected final approach speed is unknown. Another major finding is that en route metering fix delivery-error standard deviation should be kept to less than a number somewhere between 35 to 45 seconds to achieve full runway capacity. This requirement implies the need for either airborne automation or assistance to the controller since the current manual performance in today's en route metering environment is in the order of 1.5 minutes.

Credeur, Leonard↗

NASA NTRS1991

Airborne Four-Dimensional Flight Management in a Time-based Air Traffic Control Environment

Advanced Air Traffic Control (ATC) systems are being developed which contain time-based (4D) trajectory predictions of aircraft. Airborne flight management systems (FMS) exist or are being developed with similar 4D trajectory generation capabilities. Differences between the ATC generated profiles and those generated by the airborne 4D FMS may introduce system problems. A simulation experiment was conducted to explore integration of a 4D equipped aircraft into a 4D ATC system. The NASA Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle cockpit simulator was linked in real time to the NASA Ames Descent Advisor ATC simulation for this effort. Candidate procedures for handling 4D equipped aircraft were devised and traffic scenarios established which required time delays absorbed through speed control alone or in combination with path stretching. Dissimilarities in 4D speed strategies between airborne and ATC generated trajectories were tested in these scenarios. The 4D procedures and FMS operation were well received by airline pilot test subjects, who achieved an arrival accuracy at the metering fix of 2.9 seconds standard deviation time error. The amount and nature of the information transmitted during a time clearance were found to be somewhat of a problem using the voice radio communication channel. Dissimilarities between airborne and ATC-generated speed strategies were found to be a problem when the traffic remained on established routes. It was more efficient for 4D equipped aircraft to fly trajectories with similar, though less fuel efficient, speeds which conform to the ATC strategy. Heavy traffic conditions, where time delays forced off-route path stretching, were found to produce a potential operational benefit of the airborne 4D FMS.

Williams, David H.↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Fast-Time Study of Aircraft Reordering in Arrival Sequencing and Scheduling

In order to ensure that the safe capacity of the terminal area is not exceeded, Air Traffic Management ATM often places restrictions on arriving flights transitioning from en route airspace to terminal airspace. This restriction of arrival traffic is commonly referred to as arrival flow management, and includes techniques such as metering, vectoring, fix-load balancing, and the imposition of miles-in-trail separations. These restrictions are enacted without regard for the relative priority which airlines may be placing on individual flights based on factors such as crew criticality, passenger connectivity, critical turn times, gate availability, on-time performance, fuel status, or runway preference. The development of new arrival flow management techniques which take into consideration priorities expressed by air carriers will likely reduce the economic impact of ATM restrictions on the airlines and lead to increased airline economic efficiency by allowing airlines to have greater control over their individual arrival banks of aircraft. NASA and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have designed and developed a suite of software decision support tools (DSTs) collectively known as the Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS). One of these tools, the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) is currently being used at the Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center to perform arrival flow management of traffic into the Dallas/Fort Worth airport (DFW). The TMA is a time-based strategic planning tool that assists Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) and En Route Air Traffic Controllers in efficiently balancing arrival demand with airport capacity. The primary algorithm in the TMA is a real-time scheduler which generates efficient landing sequences and landing times for arrivals within about 200 no a. from touchdown. This scheduler will sequence aircraft so that they arrive in a first- come - first-served (FCFS) order. While FCFS sequencing establishes a fair order based on estimated times of arrival, it does not take into account individual airline priorities among incoming flights. NASA is exploring the possibility of allowing airlines to express relative arrival priorities to air traffic management through the development of new CTAS scheduling algorithms which take into consideration airline arrival preferences. The accommodation of airline priorities in arrival sequencing and scheduling would under most circumstances result in a deviation from a "natural" or FCFS arrival order. As a First step toward developing airline influenced sequencing algorithms, an investigation was conducted to determine the feasibility of reordering arrival traffic from a strict FCFS sequence. A fast-time simulation has been developed which allows statistical evaluation of sequencing and scheduling algorithms for arrival traffic at the Dallas/Fort Worth Airport. In contrast to real-time simulation or field tests, which would require on the order of ninety minutes to examine a single traffic rush period, the fast-time simulation allows examination of multiple rush periods in a matter of seconds.

Carr, Greg↗

NASA NTRS2015

Methodology to Define Delivery Accuracy Under Current Day ATC Operations

In order to enable arrival management concepts and solutions in a NextGen environment, ground- based sequencing and scheduling functions have been developed to support metering operations in the National Airspace System. These sequencing and scheduling algorithms as well as tools are designed to aid air traffic controllers in developing an overall arrival strategy. The ground systems being developed will support the management of aircraft to their Scheduled Times of Arrival (STAs) at flow-constrained meter points. This paper presents a methodology for determining the undelayed delivery accuracy for current day air traffic control operations. This new method analyzes the undelayed delivery accuracy at meter points in order to understand changes of desired flow rates as well as enabling definition of metrics that will allow near-future ground automation tools to successfully achieve desired separation at the meter points. This enables aircraft to meet their STAs while performing high precision arrivals. The research presents a possible implementation that would allow delivery performance of current tools to be estimated and delivery accuracy requirements for future tools to be defined, which allows analysis of Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) accuracy for Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) and the FAA's Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). TMA is a deployed system that generates scheduled time-of-arrival constraints for en- route air traffic controllers in the US. This new method of automated analysis provides a repeatable evaluation of the delay metrics for current day traffic, new releases of TMA, implementation of different tools, and across different airspace environments. This method utilizes a wide set of data from the Operational TMA-TBFM Repository (OTTR) system, which processes raw data collected by the FAA from operational TMA systems at all ARTCCs in the nation. The OTTR system generates daily reports concerning ATC status, intent and actions. Due to its availability, ease of use, and vast collection of data across several airspaces it was determined that the OTTR data set would be the best method to utilize moving forward with this analysis. The particular variables needed for further analysis were determined along with the necessary OTTR reports, by working closely with the repository team additional analysis reports were developed that provided key ETA and STA information at the freeze horizon. One major benefit of the OTTR data is that using the correct reports the data across several airports could be analyzed over large periods of time. The OTTR data processes the TBFM data daily and is stored in various formats across several airspaces. This allowed us to develop our own parsing methods and raw data processing that would not rely on other computationally expensive tools that perform more in depth analysis of similar sets of data. The majority of this work consisted of the development of the ability to filter flights to create a subset of flights that could be considered undelayed, which is defined as a flight at the freeze horizon with an ETA and STA difference that was minimal or close to zero. This was a broad method that allowed the consideration of a large data set which consisted of all the traffic across a two month period in 2013, the hottest and coldest months, arriving into four airports: George Bush Intercontinental, Denver International, Los Angeles International, and Phoenix Sky Harbor.

delivery accuracy↗

NASA NTRS2018

Using an Automated Air Traffic Simulation Capability for a Parametric Study in Traffic Flow Management

Flight delays occur when demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports exceeds predicted capacity. Demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports can be controlled by a series of Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs), which use departure and airborne delays, as well as pre-departure and airborne reroutes, to manage access to the constrained resources. Two systems exist in current and planned future operations to address imbalances between demand and capacity. The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) reduces demand to constrained resources by assigning strategic departure delay and pre-departure reroutes. Reroutes are selected from Trajectory Options Sets (TOSs) submitted by airlines. As flights approach the constrained resource, the Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM) is used to assign tactical delay to satisfy constraints. This paper describes experiments performed to study the impact of varying levels of airline participation in CTOP via submission of TOSs on ground delay and flight time, and the impact of departure uncertainty on TBFM delays. Results suggest that as CTOP participation increases, average ground delays decrease for all airlines, but to the greatest extent for airlines participating in CTOP. A threshold in CTOP participation, which varies with the constraint capacity, is identified beyond which there is relatively little further reduction in average ground delays. Similarly, given the likely level of CTOP participation, the capacity reduction for which CTOP would be an appropriate TMI is also identified. Results also suggest that high average departure errors and high variability in departure error can make the prioritization of TBFM internal departures in TBFM metering and scheduling infeasible. Departure errors at current levels are, however, acceptable.

CTOP↗