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NASA NTRS2011

Complexity Management Using Metrics for Trajectory Flexibility Preservation and Constraint Minimization

The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigating air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new surveillance, navigation, and communication technologies are enabling major transformations in the air traffic management system, including net-based information sharing and collaboration, performance-based access to airspace resources, and trajectory-based rather than clearance-based operations. The new system will feature different schemes for allocating tasks and responsibilities between the ground and airborne agents and between the human and automation, with potential capacity and cost benefits. Therefore, complexity management requires new metrics and methods that can support these new schemes. This paper presents metrics and methods for preserving trajectory flexibility that have been proposed to support a trajectory-based approach for complexity management by airborne or ground-based systems. It presents extensions to these metrics as well as to the initial research conducted to investigate the hypothesis that using these metrics to guide user and service provider actions will naturally mitigate traffic complexity. The analysis showed promising results in that: (1) Trajectory flexibility preservation mitigated traffic complexity as indicated by inducing self-organization in the traffic patterns and lowering traffic complexity indicators such as dynamic density and traffic entropy. (2)Trajectory flexibility preservation reduced the potential for secondary conflicts in separation assurance. (3) Trajectory flexibility metrics showed potential application to support user and service provider negotiations for minimizing the constraints imposed on trajectories without jeopardizing their objectives.

Idris, Husni↗

NASA NTRS2009

Convective Weather Avoidance with Uncertain Weather Forecasts

Convective weather events have a disruptive impact on air traffic both in terminal area and in en-route airspaces. In order to make sure that the national air transportation system is safe and efficient, it is essential to respond to convective weather events effectively. Traffic flow control initiatives in response to convective weather include ground delay, airborne delay, miles-in-trail restrictions as well as tactical and strategic rerouting. The rerouting initiatives can potentially increase traffic density and complexity in regions neighboring the convective weather activity. There is a need to perform rerouting in an intelligent and efficient way such that the disruptive effects of rerouting are minimized. An important area of research is to study the interaction of in-flight rerouting with traffic congestion or complexity and developing methods that quantitatively measure this interaction. Furthermore, it is necessary to find rerouting solutions that account for uncertainties in weather forecasts. These are important steps toward managing complexity during rerouting operations, and the paper is motivated by these research questions. An automated system is developed for rerouting air traffic in order to avoid convective weather regions during the 20- minute - 2-hour time horizon. Such a system is envisioned to work in concert with separation assurance (0 - 20-minute time horizon), and longer term air traffic management (2-hours and beyond) to provide a more comprehensive solution to complexity and safety management. In this study, weather is dynamic and uncertain; it is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. Algorithms are implemented in an air traffic simulation environment to support the research study. The algorithms used are deterministic but periodically revise reroutes to account for weather forecast updates. In contrast to previous studies, in this study convective weather is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. The automated system periodically updates forecasts and reassesses rerouting decisions in order to account for changing weather predictions. The main objectives are to reroute flights to avoid convective weather regions and determine the resulting complexity due to rerouting. The eventual goal is to control and reduce complexity while rerouting flights during the 20 minute - 2 hour planning period. A three-hour simulation is conducted using 4800 flights in the national airspace. The study compares several metrics against a baseline scenario using the same traffic and weather but with rerouting disabled. The results show that rerouting can have a negative impact on congestion in some sectors, as expected. The rerouting system provides accurate measurements of the resulting complexity in the congested sectors. Furthermore, although rerouting is performed only in the 20-minute - 2-hour range, it results in a 30% reduction in encounters with nowcast weather polygons (100% being the ideal for perfectly predictable and accurate weather). In the simulations, rerouting was performed for the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon, and for the en-route segment of air traffic. The implementation uses CWAM, a set of polygons that represent probabilities of pilot deviation around weather. The algorithms were implemented in a software-based air traffic simulation system. Initial results of the system's performance and effectiveness were encouraging. Simulation results showed that when flights were rerouted in the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon of air traffic, there were fewer weather encounters in the first 20 minutes than for flights that were not rerouted. Some preliminary results were also obtained that showed that rerouting will also increase complexity. More simulations will be conducted in order to report conclusive results on the effects of rerouting on complexity. Thus, the use of the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon weather avoidance teniques performed in the simulation is expected to provide benefits for short-term weather avoidance.

Karahan, Sinan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Visualizing Vehicle Acceleration and Braking Energy at Intersections along a Major Traffic Corridor

Automobiles approaching a controlled intersection need to brake and come to a full stop when the signal transitions from green to red, and the vehicle must later accelerate to normal speeds after the signal changes back to green. These stops and starts associated with normal signal changes lead to unnecessary energy consumption and vehicle emissions. Previous studies have revealed that the optimization of traffic intersections' signal controls and coordination facilitates smoother traffic flows with reduced stop-and-go driving, which can significantly reduce traffic congestion and unnecessary fuel waste. This paper presents an interactive visual analytics dashboard that allows transportation planners to explore and analyze energy consumption patterns resulting from temporally varying traffic signal phases at multiple intersections along a major transportation corridor using traffic simulation outputs. The visual dashboard is implemented as an accessible and responsive web application and employs a combination of visualization techniques to cover multiple aspects of vehicle acceleration and braking at multiple adjacent intersections along a corridor. The paper presents a case study of a simulated traffic scenario on the Shallowford Road traffic corridor located in Chattanooga, Tennessee to demonstrate the capability of the visual dashboard.

Xu, Haowen↗

NASA NTRS2002

Aeronautical Communications Research and Development Needs for Future Air Traffic Management Applications

Continuing growth in regional and global air travel has resulted in increasing traffic congestion in the air and on the ground. In spite of occasional temporary downturns due to economic recessions and catastrophic events, average growth rates of air travel have remained high since the 1960s. The resulting congestion, which constrains expansion of the air transportation industry, inflicts schedule delays and decreases overall system efficiency, creating a pressing need to develop more efficient methods of air traffic management (ATM). New ATM techniques, procedures, air space automation methods, and decision support tools are being researched and developed for deployment in time frames stretching from the next few years to the year 2020 and beyond. As these methods become more advanced and increase in complexity, the requirements for information generation, sharing and transfer among the relevant entities in the ATM system increase dramatically. However, current aeronautical communications systems will be inadequate to meet the future information transfer demands created by these advanced ATM systems. Therefore, the NASA Glenn Research Center is undertaking research programs to develop communication, methods and key technologies that can meet these future requirements. As part of this process, studies, workshops, testing and experimentation, and research and analysis have established a number of research and technology development needs. The purpose of this paper is to outline the critical research and technology needs that have been identified in these activities, and explain how these needs have been determined.

Kerczewski, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of the Terminal Area Precision Scheduling and Spacing System for Performance-Based Navigation Arrivals

The growth of global demand for air transportation has put increasing strain on the nation's air traffic management system. To relieve this strain, the International Civil Aviation Organization has urged all nations to adopt Performance-Based Navigation (PBN), which can help to reduce air traffic congestion, decrease aviation fuel consumption, and protect the environment. NASA has developed a Terminal Area Precision Scheduling and Spacing (TAPSS) system that can support increased use of PBN during periods of high traffic, while supporting fuel-efficient, continuous descent approaches. In the original development of this system, arrival aircraft are assigned fuel-efficient Area Navigation (RNAV) Standard Terminal Arrival Routes before their initial descent from cruise, with routing defined to a specific runway. The system also determines precise schedules for these aircraft that facilitate continuous descent through the assigned routes. To meet these schedules, controllers are given a set of advisory tools to precisely control aircraft. The TAPSS system has been evaluated in a series of human-in-the-loop (HITL) air traffic simulations during 2010 and 2011. Results indicated increased airport arrival throughput up to 10 over current operations, and maintained fuel-efficient aircraft decent profiles from the initial descent to landing with reduced controller workload. This paper focuses on results from a joint NASA and FAA HITL simulation conducted in 2012. Due to the FAA rollout of the advance terminal area PBN procedures at mid-sized airports first, the TAPSS system was modified to manage arrival aircraft as they entered Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON). Dallas-Love Field airport (DAL) was selected by the FAA as a representative mid-sized airport within a constrained TRACON airspace due to the close proximity of a major airport, in this case Dallas-Ft Worth International Airport, one of the busiest in the world. To address this constraint, RNAV routes and Required Navigation Performance with the particular capability known as Radius-to-Fix (RNP-RF) approaches to a short final were used. The purpose of this simulation was to get feedback on how current operations could benefit with the TAPSS system and also to evaluate the efficacy of the advisory tools to support the broader use of PBN in the US National Airspace System. For this NASA-FAA joint experiment, an Air Traffic Control laboratory at NASA Ames was arranged to simulate arrivals into DAL in Instrument Meteorological Conditions utilizing parallel dependent approaches, with two feeder positions that handed off traffic to one final position. Four FAA controllers participated, alternately covering these three positions. All participants were Full-Performance Level terminal controllers and members of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association. During the simulation, PBN arrival operations were compared and contrasted in three conditions. They were the Baseline, where none of the TAPSS systems TRACON controller decision support advisories were provided, the Limited Advisories, reflecting the existing but dormant capabilities of the current terminal automation equipment with providing a subset of the TAPSS systems advisories; numerical delay, landing sequence, and runway assignment information, and the Full Advisories, with providing the following in addition to the ones in the Limited condition; trajectory slot markers, timelines of estimated times of arrivals and sched

Performance based navigation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Joint Planning of EV Fast Charging Stations and Power Distribution Systems With Balanced Traffic Flow Assignment

To tackle the challenges introduced by the fast-growing charging demand of electric vehicles (EVs), the power distribution systems (PDSs) and fast charging stations (FCSs) of EVs should be planned and operated in a more coordinated fashion. However, existing planning approaches generally aim to minimize investment costs in PDSs while ignoring the risk of worsening traffic conditions. To overcome this research gap, this article integrates the interests of traffic networks into PDS and FCS joint planning model to mitigate negative impacts on traffic conditions caused by installing FCSs. First, a novel microscopic method that is different from traditional assignment methods is proposed to simulate the influences of FCSs on traffic flows and EV charging loads. Then, a multiobjective joint planning model is developed to minimize both the planning costs and unbalanced traffic flows. A new bilayer Benders decomposition algorithm is designed to solve the proposed joint planning model. Numerical results on two practical systems in China validate the feasibility of our microscopic method by comparing the simulated results with real data. Compared with existing approaches, it is also demonstrated that the proposed joint planning approach helps to balance traffic flow assignments and relieve traffic congestion.

bilayer expanded Benders decomposition↗

NASA NTRS2018

Methods to Reduce Communication Workload for UAM Operations

Implementation of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations, or air passenger transportation systems within densely populated metropolitan areas, seeks to mitigate increasing traffic congestion. However, the development and integration of UAM operations into the national airspace system comes with its own unique challenges, such as vehicle requirements, flight planning and scheduling, and coordination between UAM flights and air traffic controllers. In particular, verbal coordination will play an integral part in the determined success of UAM operations and its ability to meet projected high consumer demands. In order to meet demands and higher traffic volumes on UAM routes, verbal communication between the UAM pilot and controller must be streamlined to reduce the controller's workload while helping to maintain safety within a given airspace. One method of reducing verbal workload are Letters Of Agreement (LOAs) that outline responsibilities and procedures for operations in an airspace. These LOAs will specify the operations, procedures, and routes for UAM flights. The proposed study will examine the usability of two route formatting styles for LOAs; (i) Verbal route descriptions and (ii) Tower En Route Control (TECs) routes. Verbal route descriptions will include the route name and associated visual cues on the route. The TEC route versions will include relevant waypoints and charts outlining the route with waypoints marked. The study will be part of a UAM X1 human in the loop (HITL) simulation. Controller participants will handle traditional air traffic including moderate levels of UAM traffic on current and modified helicopter routes within the Dallas Fort-Worth area. Scenarios will be counterbalanced and repeated to test both route formatting versions. After each trial, participants will rate the usability of the LOA used in the previous trial via a subjective questionnaire. We expect that controllers will prefer the LOA with TEC routes due to simplicity and visual elements available.

aerospace human factors↗

DOE OSTI2023

Smart Mobility in the Cloud: Enabling Real-Time Situational Awareness and Cyber-Physical Control Through a Digital Twin for Traffic

This article presents the design, implementation, and use cases of the Chattanooga Digital Twin (CTwin) towards the vision for next-generation smart city applications for urban mobility management. CTwin is an end-to-end web-based platform that incorporates various aspects of the decision-making process for optimizing urban transportation systems in Chattanooga, Tennessee, to reduce traffic congestion, incidents, and vehicle fuel consumption. The platform serves as a cyberinfrastructure to collect and integrate multi-domain urban mobility data from various online repositories and Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, covering multiple urban aspects (e.g., traffic, natural hazards, weather, and safety) that are relevant to urban mobility management. The platform enables advanced capabilities for: (a) real-time situational awareness on traffic and infrastructure conditions on highways and urban roads, (b) cyber-physical control for optimizing traffic signal timing, and (c) interactive visual analytics on big urban mobility data and various metrics for traffic prediction and transportation performance evaluation. The platform is designed using a multi-level componentization paradigm and is implemented using modular and adaptive architecture, rendering it as a generalizable and extendable prototype for other urban management applications. We present several use cases to demonstrate CTwin's core capabilities for supporting decision-making in smart urban mobility management.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS2009

Distributed Trajectory Flexibility Preservation for Traffic Complexity Mitigation

The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigation of air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new information and automation technologies are enabling the distribution of tasks and decisions from the service providers to the users of the air traffic system, with potential capacity and cost benefits. This distribution of tasks and decisions raises the concern that independent user actions will decrease the predictability and increase the complexity of the traffic system, hence inhibiting and possibly reversing any potential benefits. In answer to this concern, the authors propose the introduction of decision-making metrics for preserving user trajectory flexibility. The hypothesis is that such metrics will make user actions naturally mitigate traffic complexity. In this paper, the impact of using these metrics on traffic complexity is investigated. The scenarios analyzed include aircraft in en route airspace with each aircraft meeting a required time of arrival in a one-hour time horizon while mitigating the risk of loss of separation with the other aircraft, thus preserving its trajectory flexibility. The experiments showed promising results in that the individual trajectory flexibility preservation induced self-separation and self-organization effects in the overall traffic situation. The effects were quantified using traffic complexity metrics based on Lyapunov exponents and traffic proximity.

Idris, Husni↗

NASA NTRS2009

Analysis of Trajectory Flexibility Preservation Impact on Traffic Complexity

The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigation of air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new information and automation technologies are enabling the distribution of tasks and decisions from the service providers to the users of the air traffic system, with potential capacity and cost benefits. This distribution of tasks and decisions raises the concern that independent user actions will decrease the predictability and increase the complexity of the traffic system, hence inhibiting and possibly reversing any potential benefits. In answer to this concern, the authors proposed the introduction of decision-making metrics for preserving user trajectory flexibility. The hypothesis is that such metrics will make user actions naturally mitigate traffic complexity. In this paper, the impact of using these metrics on traffic complexity is investigated. The scenarios analyzed include aircraft in en route airspace with each aircraft meeting a required time of arrival in a one-hour time horizon while mitigating the risk of loss of separation with the other aircraft, thus preserving its trajectory flexibility. The experiments showed promising results in that the individual trajectory flexibility preservation induced self-separation and self-organization effects in the overall traffic situation. The effects were quantified using traffic complexity metrics, namely dynamic density indicators, which indicated that using the flexibility metrics reduced aircraft density and the potential of loss of separation.

Idris, Husni↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sliding Mode Network Perimeter Control

Urban traffic congestion is a chronic problem faced by many cities in the US and worldwide. It results in inefficient infrastructure use as well as increased vehicle fuel consumption and emission levels. Congestion is intertwined with delay, as road users waste precious hours on the road, which in turn reduces productivity. Researchers have developed, and continue to design, tools and systems to alleviate this problem. Network perimeter control is one such tool that has been studied extensively. It attempts to control the flow of vehicles entering a protected area to ensure that the congested regime predetermined by the Network Fundamental Diagram (NFD) is not reached. In this paper, a method derived from sliding mode control theory is presented. Its main advantages over proportional-integral controllers include (1) minimal tuning, (2) no linearization of the governing equations, (3) no assumptions with regard to the shape of the NFD, and (4) ability to handle various demand profiles without the need to retune the controller. A sliding mode controller was implemented and tested on a congested grid network. The results show that the proposed controller produces network-wide delay savings and disperses congestion effectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2020

Urban Air Mobility System Testbed Using CAVE Virtual Reality Environment

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) refers to a system of air passenger and small cargo transportation within an urban area. The UAM framework also includes other urban Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) services that will be supported by a mix of onboard, ground, piloted, and autonomous operations. Over the past few years UAM research has gained wide interest from companies and federal agencies as an on-demand innovative transportation option that can help reduce traffic congestion and pollution as well as increase mobility in metropolitan areas. The concepts of UAM/UAS operation in the National Airspace System (NAS) remains an active area of research to ensure safe and efficient operations. With new developments in smart vehicle design and infrastructure for air traffic management, there is a need for methods to integrate and test various components of the UAM framework. In this work, we report on the development of a virtual reality (VR) testbed using the Cave Automatic Virtual Environment (CAVE) technology for human-automation teaming and airspace operation research of UAM. Using a four-wall projection system with motion capture, the CAVE provides an immersive virtual environment with real-time full body tracking capability. We created a virtual environment consisting of San Francisco city and a vertical take-off-and-landing passenger aircraft that can fly between a downtown location and the San Francisco International Airport. The aircraft can be operated autonomously or manually by a single pilot who maneuvers the aircraft using a flight control joystick. The interior of the aircraft includes a virtual cockpit display with vehicle heading, location, and speed information. The system can record simulation events and flight data for post-processing. The system parameters are customizable for different flight scenarios; hence, the CAVE VR testbed provides a flexible method for development and evaluation of UAM framework.

Marayong, Panadda↗

NASA NTRS2013

Operational Evaluatioin of Dynamic Weather Routes at American Airlines

Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR) is a search engine that continuously and automatically analyzes inflight aircraft in en route airspace and proposes simple route amendments for more efficient routes around convective weather while considering sector congestion, traffic conflicts, and active Special Use Airspace. NASA and American Airlines (AA) are conducting an operational trial of DWR at the AA System Operations Center in Fort Worth, TX. The trial includes only AA flights in Fort Worth Center airspace. Over the period from July 31, 2012 through August 31, 2012, 45% of routes proposed by DWR and evaluated by AA users - air traffic control coordinators and flight dispatchers - were rated as acceptable as proposed or with some modifications. The wind-corrected potential flying time savings for these acceptable routes totals 470 flying min, and results suggest another 1,500 min of potential savings for flights not evaluated due to staffing limitations. A sector congestion analysis shows that in only two out of 83 DWR routes rated acceptable by AA staff were the flights predicted to fly through a congested sector inside of 30 min downstream of present position. This shows that users considered sector congestion data provided by DWR automation and in nearly all cases did not accept routes through over-capacity sectors. It is estimated that 12 AA flights were given reroute clearances as a direct result of DWR for a total savings of 67 flying min.

air traffic trajectory automation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating Energy Efficiency Opportunities from Connected and Automated Vehicle Deployments Coupled with Shared Mobility in California

Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) can be considered to be a disruptive transportation technology, with the potential to significantly improve overall transportation system efficiency; however, CAVs may increase induce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and bring on greater energy consumption. Further, shared mobility is another disruptive transportation event that is reshaping our travel patterns. The primary goal of this project was to extensively collect data from vehicles and associated infrastructure equipped with CAV technologies from both real-world experiments and simulation studies mainly deployed in California, and develop a comprehensive framework for evaluating energy efficiency opportunities from large-scale (e.g., statewide) introduction of CAVs and a wide deployment of shared mobility systems in a variety of scenarios. To quantify the combined impact of CAV and shared mobility on travel behavior, traffic performance, and energy efficiency, a unique mesoscopic simulation-based model was developed for mobility and energy efficiency evaluation considering these disruptive transportation technologies. As a complement to existing studies on nationwide evaluation of CAVs’ energy impacts, this project was focused on data collection efforts and CAV applications under congested traffic environments that are frequently experienced on a massive scale across the major metropolitan areas in California. Extensive real-world data collection supplemented with simulation studies were conducted to cover a variety of CAV and shared mobility scenarios, particularly on scenarios less-explored in the existing research. Another key component of this project was to consider the interaction between different CAV technologies and shared mobility models, and the compound effect on energy efficiency. A comprehensive modeling suite was developed to quantify the impact of new mobility technologies on travel behavior and traffic performance. The developed modeling framework includes an energy intensity module, mode choice module and activity generation module that are integrated into an agent-based BEAM simulation platform to perform impact analysis based on a variety of scenarios. In addition, the RouteE model has been upgraded to incorporate the impact of CAVs on traffic flow, VMT and energy intensity, using micro-simulation data collected from both freeways and urban arterials. A novel fundamental influencing factor (FIF) mode choice model was developed to link CAV and shared mobility components with travel behaviors, and adapted into the BEAM-centered model framework. A statewide energy inventory was constructed under various CAV technology deployment scenarios by incorporating datasets and models for predicting vehicle market share and vehicle usage, which are tightly associated with the penetration of shared mobility systems. Based applying this modeling suite to a calibrated network in Riverside California, it was found that cooperative automated driving in general will improve mobility, but automated vehicles, even when deployed in a shared autonomous fleet, will likely bring an increase of VMT (up to 36%) due to mode shifts and deadheading. Ride-hailing vehicles typically have better energy efficiency and a higher share of electric vehicles, which helps offset the negative impact from VMT increases when estimating the system-level energy consumption. In general, simulation results show a 6% increase in energy consumption for the scenarios with an increasing shift to ride-hailing modes. The statewide analysis based on the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) sample data is consistent with the findings from the Riverside network and validate the developed clustering-prediction modeling methodology. The outcomes from this project will help close the knowledge gap on recognizing the potential performance and energy impacts of a broad deployment of CAV and shared mobility technologies across a wide range of roadway infrastructure with varying levels of congestion. Results from this project: 1) will support policymakers in steering CAV development and deployment towards an energy favorable direction; 2) reduce uncertainties in estimating energy saving opportunities from new mobility technologies and services; 3) increase the confidence of CAV technology investors both on the infrastructure side (i.e., transportation agencies) and on the vehicle side (i.e., OEMs); and 4) expedite the deployment of energy-efficient CAV and shared mobility applications.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS2006

Time Relevance of Convective Weather Forecast for Air Traffic Automation

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is handling nearly 120,000 flights a day through its Air Traffic Management (ATM) system and air traffic congestion is expected to increse substantially over the next 20 years. Weather-induced impacts to throughput and efficiency are the leading cause of flight delays accounting for 70% of all delays with convective weather accounting for 60% of all weather related delays. To support the Next Generation Air Traffic System goal of operating at 3X current capacity in the NAS, ATC decision support tools are being developed to create advisories to assist controllers in all weather constraints. Initial development of these decision support tools did not integrate information regarding weather constraints such as thunderstorms and relied on an additional system to provide that information. Future Decision Support Tools should move towards an integrated system where weather constraints are factored into the advisory of a Decision Support Tool (DST). Several groups such at NASA-Ames, Lincoln Laboratories, and MITRE are integrating convective weather data with DSTs. A survey of current convective weather forecast and observation data show they span a wide range of temporal and spatial resolutions. Short range convective observations can be obtained every 5 mins with longer range forecasts out to several days updated every 6 hrs. Today, the short range forecasts of less than 2 hours have a temporal resolution of 5 mins. Beyond 2 hours, forecasts have much lower temporal. resolution of typically 1 hour. Spatial resolutions vary from 1km for short range to 40km for longer range forecasts. Improving the accuracy of long range convective forecasts is a major challenge. A report published by the National Research Council states improvements for convective forecasts for the 2 to 6 hour time frame will only be achieved for a limited set of convective phenomena in the next 5 to 10 years. Improved longer range forecasts will be probabilistic as opposed to the deterministic shorter range forecasts. Despite the known low level of confidence with respect to long range convective forecasts, these data are still useful to a DST routing algorithm. It is better to develop an aircraft route using the best information available than no information. The temporally coarse long range forecast data needs to be interpolated to be useful to a DST. A DST uses aircraft trajectory predictions that need to be evaluated for impacts by convective storms. Each time-step of a trajectory prediction n&s to be checked against weather data. For the case of coarse temporal data, there needs to be a method fill in weather data where there is none. Simply using the coarse weather data without any interpolation can result in DST routes that are impacted by regions of strong convection. Increasing the temporal resolution of these data can be achieved but result in a large dataset that may prove to be an operational challenge in transmission and loading by a DST. Currently, it takes about 7mins retrieve a 7mb RUC2 forecast file from NOAA at NASA-Ames Research Center. A prototype NCWF6 1 hour forecast is about 3mb in size. A Six hour NCWFG forecast with a 1hr forecast time-step will be about l8mb (6 x 3mb). A 6 hour NCWF6 forecast with a l5min forecast time-step will be about 7mb (24 x 3mb). Based on the time it takes to retrieve a 7mb RUC2 forecast, it will take approximately 70mins to retrieve a 6 hour NCWF forecast with 15min time steps. Until those issues are addressed, there is a need to develop an algorithm that interpolates between these temporally coarse long range forecasts. This paper describes a method of how to use low temporal resolution probabilistic weather forecasts in a DST. The beginning of this paper is a description of some convective weather forecast and observation products followed by an example of how weather data are used by a DST. The subsequent sections will describe probabilistic forecasts followed by a descrtion of a method to use low temporal resolution probabilistic weather forecasts by providing a relevance value to these data outside of their valid times.

Chan, William N.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Implementing and Simulating Dynamic Traffic Assignment with Intelligent Transportation Systems in Cube Avenue

As urban populations and traffic congestion levels increase, effective use of information and communication tools and intelligent transportation systems as becoming increasingly important in order to maximize the efficiency of transportation networks. The appropriate placement and employment of these tools within a network is critical to their effectiveness. This presentation proposes and demonstrates the use of a commercial transportation simulation tool to simulate dynamic traffic assignment and rerouting to model route modifications as a result of traffic information.

Foytik, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2022

A data-centric weak supervised learning for highway traffic incident detection

Using the data from loop detector sensors for near-real-time detection of traffic incidents on highways is crucial to averting major traffic congestion. While recent supervised machine learning methods offer solutions to incident detection by leveraging human-labeled incident data, the false alarm rate is often too high to be used in practice. Specifically, the inconsistency in the human labeling of the incidents significantly affects the performance of supervised learning models. To that end, we focus on a data-centric approach to improve the accuracy and reduce the false alarm rate of traffic incident detection on highways. We develop a weak supervised learning workflow to generate high-quality training labels for the incident data without the ground truth labels, and we use those generated labels in the supervised learning setup for final detection. This approach comprises three stages. First, we introduce a data preprocessing and curation pipeline that processes traffic sensor data to generate high-quality training data through leveraging labeling functions, which can be domain knowledge-related or simple heuristic rules. Second, we evaluate the training data generated by weak supervision using three supervised learning models-random forest, k-nearest neighbors, and a support vector machine ensemble-and long short-term memory classifiers. The results show that the accuracy of all of the models improves significantly after using the training data generated by weak supervision. Third, we develop an online real-time incident detection approach that leverages the model ensemble and the uncertainty quantification while detecting incidents. Finally, we show that our proposed weak supervised learning workflow achieves a high incident detection rate (0.90) and low false alarm rate (0.08).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Factors for Incorporating User Preferences in Air Traffic Management: A system Perspective

This paper presents an analysis of factors that impact user flight schedules during air traffic congestion. In pre-departure flight planning, users file one route per flight, which often leads to increased delays, inefficient airspace utilization, and exclusion of user flight preferences. In this paper, first the idea of filing alternate routes and providing priorities on each of those routes is introduced. Then, the impact of varying planning interval and system imposed departure delay increment is discussed. The metrics of total delay and equity are used for analyzing the impact of these factors on increased traffic and on different users. The results are shown for four cases, with and without the optional routes and priority assignments. Results demonstrate that adding priorities to optional routes further improves system performance compared to filing one route per flight and using first-come first-served scheme. It was also observed that a two-hour planning interval with a five-minute system imposed departure delay increment results in highest delay reduction. The trend holds for a scenario with increased traffic.

Sheth, Kapil S.↗