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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2014

Predicting Ground Delay Program at an Airport Based on Meteorological Conditions

In this paper, we present two supervised-learning models, logistic regression and decision tree, to predict occurrence of ground delay program at an airport based on meteorological conditions and scheduled traffic demand. Such predictive capabilities can help the Federal Aviation Administration traffic managers and airline dispatchers to prepare mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of adverse weather. The models are applied to predict ground delay program occurrence at two major U.S. airports: Newark Liberty Intl. and San Francisco Intl. airports. The logistic regression model estimates the probability that a ground delay program will occur during a given hour. Decision tree, on the other hand, classifies an hour as a ground delay program or not based on the input variables. Results indicate that both models perform significantly better than a purely random prediction of ground delay program occurrence at the two airports. The logistic regression model performs better than the decision tree model. The degree to which various input variables impact the probability of ground delay program vary between the two airports. While the enroute convective weather is a dominant factor causing ground delay programs at New York airports, poor visibility and low cloud ceiling caused by marine stratus are major drivers of ground delay programs at San Francisco Intl. airport.

traffic flow management↗
NASA NTRS2012

Near real-time traffic routing

A near real-time physical transportation network routing system comprising: a traffic simulation computing grid and a dynamic traffic routing service computing grid. The traffic simulator produces traffic network travel time predictions for a physical transportation network using a traffic simulation model and common input data. The physical transportation network is divided into a multiple sections. Each section has a primary zone and a buffer zone. The traffic simulation computing grid includes multiple of traffic simulation computing nodes. The common input data includes static network characteristics, an origin-destination data table, dynamic traffic information data and historical traffic data. The dynamic traffic routing service computing grid includes multiple dynamic traffic routing computing nodes and generates traffic route(s) using the traffic network travel time predictions.

Yang, Chaowei↗
NASA NTRS1994

Differential GPS and system integration of the Low Visibility Landing and Surface Operations (LVLASO) demonstration

The LVLASO Flight Demonstration of ASTA concepts (FDAC) integrates NASA-Langley's electronic moving map display and Transport Systems Research Vehicle (TSRV) (a modified Boeing 737 aircraft); ARINC's VHF data link, GPS ground station, and automated controller workstation; and Norden's surface radar/airport movement safety system. Aircraft location is shown on the electronic map display in the cockpit. An approved taxi route as well as other aircraft and surface traffic are also displayed. An Ashtech Z12 Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver on the TSRV estimates the aircraft's position. In Differential mode (DSPS), the Ashtech receiver accepts differential C/A code pseudorange corrections from a GPS ground station. The GPS ground station provides corrections up to ten satellites. The corrections are transmitted on a VHF data link at a 1 Hz. rate using the RTCM-104 format. DGPS position estimates will be within 5 meters of actual aircraft position. DGPS position estimates are blended with position, velocity, acceleration, and heading data from the TSRV Air Data/Inertial Reference System (ADIRS). The ADIRS data is accurate in the short-term, but drifts over time. The DGPS data is used to keep the ADIRS position accurate. Ownship position, velocity, heading, and turn rate are sent at a 20 Hz. rate to the electronic map display. Airport traffic is detected by the airport surface radar system. Aircraft and vehicles such as fuel trucks and baggage carts are detected. The traffic's location, velocity, and heading are sent to the TSRV. To prevent traffic symbology from jumping each second when a location update arrives, velocity and heading are used to predict a new traffic location for each display update. Possible runway incursions and collisions can be shown on the electronic map. Integrating the different systems used in the FDAC requires attention to the underlying coordinate systems. The airport diagram displayed on the electronic map is obtained from published navigational charts. The charts reference the North American Datum of 1927 (NAD27) or a local state-plane coordinate system. GPS uses the World Geodetic Standard of 1984 (WGS84). Both NAD27 and WGS84 model the Earth as an ellipsoid, however, they use a different origin and different size ellipsoids. Latitudes and longitudes given in these systems can be converted to a Cartesian system with the origin at the Earth's center. The surface radar detects traffic in a locally-level, rho-theta coordiante system. The electronic airport diagram is stored using a flat XY coordinate system. The map origin is at the tower and is referenced as True North up. All ownship and other traffic positions must be converted to the electronic map's frame of reference for display.

Rankin, James M.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantification of Uncertainty and Risk Sensitivity for Safety of Emerging Operations

The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.

Rajnish Bhusal↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of Flight Deck-Based Interval Management Crew Procedure Feasibility

Air traffic demand is predicted to increase over the next 20 years, creating a need for new technologies and procedures to support this growth in a safe and efficient manner. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration - 1 (ATD-1) will operationally demonstrate the feasibility of efficient arrival operations combining ground-based and airborne NASA technologies. The integration of these technologies will increase throughput, reduce delay, conserve fuel, and minimize environmental impacts. The ground-based tools include Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering for precise time-based scheduling and Controller Managed Spacing decision support tools for better managing aircraft delay with speed control. The core airborne technology in ATD-1 is Flight deck-based Interval Management (FIM). FIM tools provide pilots with speed commands calculated using information from Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast. The precise merging and spacing enabled by FIM avionics and flight crew procedures will reduce excess spacing buffers and result in higher terminal throughput. This paper describes a human-in-the-loop experiment designed to assess the acceptability and feasibility of the ATD-1 procedures used in a voice communications environment. This experiment utilized the ATD-1 integrated system of ground-based and airborne technologies. Pilot participants flew a high-fidelity fixed base simulator equipped with an airborne spacing algorithm and a FIM crew interface. Experiment scenarios involved multiple air traffic flows into the Dallas-Fort Worth Terminal Radar Control airspace. Results indicate that the proposed procedures were feasible for use by flight crews in a voice communications environment. The delivery accuracy at the achieve-by point was within +/- five seconds and the delivery precision was less than five seconds. Furthermore, FIM speed commands occurred at a rate of less than one per minute, and pilots found the frequency of the speed commands to be acceptable at all times throughout the experiment scenarios.

Wilson, Sara R.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Future of Air Traffic Management

A system for the control of terminal area traffic to improve productivity, referred to as the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS), is being developed at NASA's Ames Research Center under a joint program with the FAA. CTAS consists of a set of integrated tools that provide computer-generated advisories for en-route and terminal area controllers. The premise behind the design of CTAS has been that successful planning of traffic requires accurate trajectory prediction. Data bases consisting of representative aircraft performance models, airline preferred operational procedures and a three dimensional wind model support the trajectory prediction. The research effort has been the design of a set of automation tools that make use of this trajectory prediction capability to assist controllers in overall management of traffic. The first tool, the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA), provides the overall flow management between the en route and terminal areas. A second tool, the Final Approach Spacing Tool (FAST) provides terminal area controllers with sequence and runway advisories to allow optimal use of the runways. The TMA and FAST are now being used in daily operations at Dallas/Ft. Worth airport. Additional activities include the development of several other tools. These include: 1) the En Route Descent Advisor that assist the en route controller in issuing conflict free descents and ascents; 2) the extension of FAST to include speed and heading advisories and the Expedite Departure Path (EDP) that assists the terminal controller in management of departures; and 3) the Collaborative Arrival Planner (CAP) that will assist the airlines in operational decision making. The purpose of this presentation is to review the CTAS concept and to present the results of recent field tests. The paper will first discuss the overall concept and then discuss the status of the individual tools.

Denery, Dallas G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Fast-Time Simulation Tool for Analysis of Airport Arrival Traffic

The basic objective of arrival sequencing in air traffic control automation is to match traffic demand and airport capacity while minimizing delays. The performance of an automated arrival scheduling system, such as the Traffic Management Advisor developed by NASA for the FAA, can be studied by a fast-time simulation that does not involve running expensive and time-consuming real-time simulations. The fast-time simulation models runway configurations, the characteristics of arrival traffic, deviations from predicted arrival times, as well as the arrival sequencing and scheduling algorithm. This report reviews the development of the fast-time simulation method used originally by NASA in the design of the sequencing and scheduling algorithm for the Traffic Management Advisor. The utility of this method of simulation is demonstrated by examining the effect on delays of altering arrival schedules at a hub airport.

Erzberger, Heinz↗
NASA NTRS2019

Complex Dynamics of Air Traffic Flow

Air traffic in the United States has continued to grow at a steady pace since 1980, except for a dip immediately after the tragic events of September 11, 2001. There are different growth scenarios associated both with the magnitude and the composition of the future air traffic. The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), prepared every year by the FAA, projects the growth of traffic in the United States. Both Boeing and Airbus publish market outlooks for air travel annually. Although predicting the future growth of traffic is difficult, there are two significant trends: heavily congested major airports continue to see an increase in traffic, and the emergence of regional jets and other smaller aircraft with fewer passengers operating directly between non-major airports. The interaction between air traffic demand and the ability of the system to provide the necessary airport and airspace resources can be modeled as a network. The size of the resulting network varies depending on the choice of its nodes. It would be useful to understand the properties of this network to guide future design and development. Many questions, such as the growth of delay with increasing traffic demand and impact of the en route weather on future air traffic, require a systematic understanding of the properties of the air traffic network. There has been a major advance in the understanding of the behavior of networks with a large number of components. Several theories have been advanced about the evolution of large biological and engineering networks by authors in diversified disciplines like physics, mathematics, biology and computer science. Several networks exhibit a scale-free property in the sense that the probabilistic distribution of their nodes as a function of connections decreases slower than an exponential. These networks are characterized by the fact that a small number of components have a disproportionate influence on the performance of the network. Scale-free networks are tolerant to random failure of components, but are vulnerable to selective attack on components. This paper examines two network representations for the baseline air traffic system. A network defined with the 40 major airports as nodes and with standard flight routes as links has a characteristic scale: all nodes have 60 or more links and no node has more than 460 links. Another network is defined with baseline aircraft routing structure exhibits an exponentially truncated scale-free behavior. Its degree ranges from 2 connections to 2900 connections, and 225 nodes have more than 250 connections. Furthermore, those high-degree nodes are homogeneously distributed in the airspace. A consequence of this scale-free behavior is that the random loss of a single node has little impact, but the loss of multiple high-degree nodes (such as occurs during major storms in busy airspace) can adversely impact the system. Two future scenarios of air traffic growth are used to predict the growth of air traffic in the United States. It is shown that a three-times growth in the overall traffic may result in a ten-times impact on the density of traffic in certain parts of the United States.

Scale-free Networks↗
NASA NTRS2020

Will We Control the Automation, or Will It Control Us?

The purpose of air traffic control (ATC) is to provide a safe and efficient service for all air traffic. Since its inception, ATC has evolved in response to user needs, achieving exceptionally high standards of safety in a context of shifting complexity and density of air traffic operations. But predicted changes in societal demands, technological advancements and airspace-user needs create new challenges as we look to the mid and far term. This portion of the white paper presents some of the mid and far term visions, out to 2050, for upcoming challenges and changes to air traffic control demands and how Human Factors can support the development of air traffic control to safely and efficiently meet the needs of airspace users.

air traffic control↗
NASA NTRS2011

Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Integration, Evaluation and Transition

NASA's Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) research activity is assessing the use of surface trajectory-based takeoff (OFF) time estimates for en route domain departure scheduling in Call For Release situations. Current aircraft departure release times computed by an Air Traffic Management decision support tool to meet Call For Release constraints are based on coarse estimates of aircraft OFF times. Uncertainty in OFF time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into an overhead stream and lost throughput. However, technology exists to improve OFF time estimates by using more accurate aircraft trajectory predictions available in NextGen airport surface management decision support tools. PDRC findings are expected to be broadly applicable to NextGen integrated arrival/departure/surface implementations. For concept development and evaluation purposes this research activity integrates NASA's Surface Management System (SMS) OFF time prediction capabilities with Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) departure scheduling functions. PDRC field evaluations are being conducted at the North Texas (NTX) Research Station. The NASA/FAA Integrated Arrival/Departure/Surface Research Transition Team is using PDRC as a pathfinder for developing technology transfer mechanisms and procedures.

Engelland, Shawn A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Cruise-Efficient Short Takeoff and Landing (CESTOL): Potential Impact on Air Traffic Operations

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is investigating technological and operational concepts for introducing Cruise-Efficient Short Takeoff and Landing (CESTOL) aircraft into a future US National Airspace System (NAS) civil aviation environment. CESTOL is an aircraft design concept for future use to increase capacity and reduce emissions. CESTOL provides very flexible takeoff, climb, descent and landing performance capabilities and a high-speed cruise capability. In support of NASA, this study is a preliminary examination of the potential operational impact of CESTOL on airport and airspace capacity and delay. The study examines operational impacts at a subject site, Newark Liberty Intemational Airport (KEWR), New Jersey. The study extends these KEWR results to estimate potential impacts on NAS-wide network traffic operations due to the introduction of CESTOL at selected major airports. These are the 34 domestic airports identified in the Federal Aviation Administration's Operational Evolution Plan (OEP). The analysis process uses two fast-time simulation tools to separately model local and NAS-wide air traffic operations using predicted flight schedules for a 24-hour study period in 2016. These tools are the Sen sis AvTerminal model and NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES). We use both to simulate conventional-aircraft-only and CESTOL-mixed-with-conventional-aircraft operations. Both tools apply 4-dimension trajectory modeling to simulate individual flight movement. The study applies AvTerminal to model traffic operations and procedures for en route and terminal arrival and departures to and from KEWR. These AvTerminal applications model existing arrival and departure routes and profiles and runway use configurations, with the assumption jet-powered, large-sized civil CESTOL aircraft use a short runway and standard turboprop arrival and departure procedures. With these rules, the conventional jet and CESTOL aircraft are procedurally separated from each other geographically and in altitude during tenninal airspace approach and departure operations, and each use a different arrival runway. AvTeminal implements its unique Focal-point Scheduling Process to sequence, space and delay aircraft to resolve spacing and overtake conflicts among flights in the airspace and airport system serving KEWR. This Process effectively models integrated arrival and departure operations. AvTerminal assesses acceptance rates and delay magnitude and causality at selected locations, including en route outer boundary fixes, tenninal airspace arrival and departure boundary fixes, terminal airspace arrival merge and departure diverge fixes, and runway landing and takeoff runways. The analysis compares the resulting capacity impacts, flight delays and delay sources between CESTOL and conventional KEWR operations. AvTerminal quantitative results showed that CESTOL has significant capability to increase airport arrival acceptance rates (35-40% at KEWR) by taking advantage of otherwise underused airspace and runways where available. The study extrapolates the AvTerminal-derived KEWR peak arrival and departure acceptance rates to estimate capacity parameter values for each of the OEP airports in the ACES modeling of traffic through the entire NAS network. The extrapolations of acceptance rates allow full, partial or no achievement of CESTOL capacity gains at an OEP airport as determined by assessments of the degree to which local procedures allow leveraging of CESTOL capabilities. These assessments consider each OEP airport's runway geometries, runway system configurations, airport and airspace operations, and potential CESTOL traffic loadings. The ACES modeling, simulates airport and airspace spacing constraints imposed by airport runway system, terminal and en route air traffic control and traffic flow management operations using airport acceptance rates representing conventional-aircraft-only and CESTOL-mixed operations. CEOL aircraft are assumed to have Mach 0.8, and alternatively Mach 0.7, cruise speeds to examine compatibility with conventional aircraft operations in common airspace. The ACES results provides estimates of CESTOL delay impact NAS-wide and at OEP airports due to changes in OEP airport acceptance rates and changes in en route airspace potential conflict rates. Preliminary results show meaningful nationwide delay reductions (20%) due to CESTOL operations at 34 major domestic airports.

Couluris, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

An Evaluation and Redesign of the Conflict Prediction and Trial Planning Planview Graphical User Interface

The Planview Graphical User Interface (PGUI) is the primary display of air traffic for the Conflict Prediction and Trial Planning, function of the Center TRACON Automation System. The PGUI displays air traffic information that assists the user in making decisions related to conflict detection, conflict resolution, and traffic flow management. The intent of this document is to outline the human factors issues related to the design of the conflict prediction and trial planning portions of the PGUI, document all human factors related design changes made to the PGUI from December 1996 to September 1997, and outline future plans for the ongoing PGUI design.

Laudeman, Irene V.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Influence of the number of vehicles in the emergence of sound events on the annoyance expressed - experimental study

The acoustical index leg was studied to determine its accuracy in predicting annoyance from traffic noise. Annoyance was tested in experimental situations where the frequency of the number of heavy vehicles varied from 3 to 30 HV/30 min for different classes of the Leg level at 50, 55, 60 dB(A) of traffic noise. The results showed that: (1) for a constant Leg level the annoyance increases as a function of the number of HV up to a certain threshold at which the annoyance is stabilized; (2) for a constant frequency of passage of HV, the annoyance increases with the Leg level; (3) composite indexes of the type Leg + Log NHV, L1 + EMER or L1 + L10 give a predictive value greater than that of the Leg pr Log nHV taken alone.

Vallet, M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Analysis of Airport Ground Delay Program Decisions Using Data Mining Techniques

Air traffic service providers have to make decisions regarding changes to air traffic flow in the event of major weather disturbances and traffic congestions to maintain safety of the system. The behavior of the air traffic management system will be more predictable if consistent decisions are made under similar traffic and weather conditions. Consistency of deciding on control action depends on the weather and traffic conditions as well as accuracy in predicting these conditions. Weather parameters (defined in terms of forecast and actual weather and traffic conditions) on different days can be used to categorize days into days with little decision consistency, days with moderate decision consistency and days with high decision consistency. Four years of traffic, weather and ground delay program decisions data at major airports in the United States are used in the analysis. This paper examines performance of different data mining methods in the three regions of decision consistency. Not surprisingly, data mining methods have the best performance in the region of most decision consistency and have the poorest performance in the region of little decision consistency. In applications where data mining methods have differing performance in differing regions, it would be more useful to characterize the region specific performance instead of characterizing performance by a single parameter. Finally, the results show no significant variation in the performance of different data mining methods for this particular problem. The fact that different mining methods show no significant variation also provides further confidence in the results of data mining methods. Work in this abstract discusses initial results. This paper describes the results in terms of both forecast and actual environmental conditions and discusses how prediction errors impact decision consistency.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗
NASA NTRS2019

Management by Trajectory: Improving Predictability for Airspace Operations

In the present-day National Airspace System, the air traffic management system attempts to predict the trajectory for each flight based on the flight plan and scheduled or controlled departure time. However, gaps in trajectory data and models, coupled with tactical control actions that are not communicated to automation systems or other stakeholders, lead to trajectory predictions that are less accurate than they could be. This affects traffic flow management performance. Management by Trajectory (MBT) is a NASA concept for air traffic management in which every flight operates in accordance with a 4D trajectory that is negotiated between the airspace user and the FAA to account for the airspace user’s goals while complying with NAS constraints. The primary benefit of MBT is an improvement in system performance due to increased trajectory predictability and stability, which result from managing traffic in all four dimensions (2D route, vertical, and time), ensuring that changes to the flight’s trajectory are incorporated into the assigned trajectory, and utilizing improved time or arrival control standards. Importantly, the performance improvements support increasing efficiency without increasing collision risk. This paper provides an overview of MBT and describes fast-time simulation results evaluating the safety, performance, and efficiency effects of MBT.

Fernandes, Alicia B.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Human-Centered Technologies and Procedures for Future Air Traffic Management

The use of various methodologies to predict the impact of future Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts and technologies is explored. The emphasis has been on the importance of modeling coordination and cooperation among multiple agents within this system, and on understanding how the interactions among these agents will be influenced as new roles, responsibilities, procedures and technologies are introduced. To accomplish this, we have been collecting data on performance under the current air traffic management system, identifying critical problem areas and looking for examples suggestive of general approaches for solving such problems. Using the results of these field studies, we have developed a set of concrete scenarios centered around future designs, and have studied performance in these scenarios with a set of 40 controllers, dispatchers, pilots and traffic managers.

Smith, Philip↗
NASA NTRS1995

A Multiple Agent Model of Human Performance in Automated Air Traffic Control and Flight Management Operations

A predictive model of human operator performance (flight crew and air traffic control (ATC)) has been developed and applied in order to evaluate the impact of automation developments in flight management and air traffic control. The model is used to predict the performance of a two person flight crew and the ATC operators generating and responding to clearances aided by the Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS). The purpose of the modeling is to support evaluation and design of automated aids for flight management and airspace management and to predict required changes in procedure both air and ground in response to advancing automation in both domains. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Corker, Kevin↗
NASA NTRS1992

The 1990 high-speed civil transport studies

This summary report contains the results of the Douglas Aircraft Company system studies related to High-Speed Civil Transports (HSCT's). The tasks were performed under an 18-month extension of NASA Langley Research Center Contract NAS1-18378. The system studies were conducted to assess the emission impact of HSCT's at design Mach numbers ranging from 1.6 to 3.2. The tasks specifically addressed an HSCT market and economic assessment, development of supersonic route networks, and an atmospheric emissions scenario. The general results indicated: (1) market projections predict sufficient passenger traffic for the 2000 to 2025 time period to support a fleet of economically viable and environmentally compatible HSCT's; (2) the HSCT route structure to minimize supersonic overland traffic can be increased by innovative routing to avoid land masses; and (3) the atmospheric emission impact on ozone would be significantly lower for Mach 1.6 operations than for Mach 3.2 operations.

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