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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1989

A predictive guidance algorithm for Mars entry

This report presents the derivation, logic, and performance of a Mars entry guidance algorithm for the Mars Rover Sample Return Mission. This algorithm guides the Mars entry vehicle along an equilibrium glide trajectory designed to satisfy a set of equality and inequality constraints at chute deploy. An equilibrium glide assumption permits analytic prediction of terminal state conditions and eliminates the need for determining numeric state sensitivities. Trajectory deviations due to dispersions or uncertainties in Martian atmosphere, vehicle aerodynamics, or entry interface conditions are accommodated simply by predicting the compensating equilibrium glide profile and achieving this profile with the available lift control. This Mars Predictive Equilibrium Glide guidance scheme was tested on a range of vehicle configurations with a variety of aerodynamic, atmosphere, and trajectory dispersions with a high degree of success.

Tigges, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Laboratory Evaluation of Dynamic Routing of Air Traffic in an En Route Arrival Metering Environment

Arrival air traffic operations in the presence of convective weather are subject to uncertainty in aircraft routing and subsequently in flight trajectory predictability. Current management of arrival operations in weather-impacted airspace results in significant flight delay and suspension of arrival metering operations. The Dynamic Routing for Arrivals in Weather (DRAW) concept provides flight route amendment advisories to Traffic Management Coordinators to mitigate the impacts of convective weather on arrival operations. DRAW provides both weather conflict and schedule information for proposed route amendments, allowing air traffic managers to simultaneously evaluate weather avoidance routing and potential schedule and delay impacts. Subject matter experts consisting of retired Traffic Management Coordinators and retired Sector Controllers with arrival metering experience participated in a simulation study of Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center arrival operations. Data were collected for Traffic Management Coordinator and Sector Controller participants over three weeks of simulation activities in October, 2017. Traffic Management Coordinators reported acceptable workload levels, a positive impact on their ability to manage arrival traffic while using DRAW, and initiated weather mitigation reroutes earlier while using DRAW. Sector Controllers also reported acceptable workload levels while using DRAW.

Air Traffic Management↗
NASA NTRS2018

Laboratory Evaluation of Dynamic Routing of Air Traffic in an En Route Arrival Metering Environment

Arrival air traffic operations in the presence of convective weather are subject to uncertainty in aircraft routing and subsequently in flight trajectory predictability. Current management of arrival operations in weather-impacted airspace results in significant flight delay and suspension of arrival metering operations. The Dynamic Routing for Arrivals in Weather (DRAW) concept provides flight route amendment advisories to Traffic Management Coordinators to mitigate the impacts of convective weather on arrival operations. DRAW provides both weather conflict and schedule information for proposed route amendments, allowing air traffic managers to simultaneously evaluate weather avoidance routing and potential schedule and delay impacts. Subject matter experts consisting of retired Traffic Management Coordinators and retired Sector Controllers with arrival metering experience participated in a simulation study of Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center arrival operations. Data were collected for Traffic Management Coordinator and Sector Controller participants over three weeks of simulation activities in October, 2017. Traffic Management Coordinators reported acceptable workload levels, a positive impact on their ability to manage arrival traffic while using DRAW, and initiated weather mitigation reroutes earlier while using DRAW. Sector Controllers also reported acceptable workload levels while using DRAW.

Air Traffic Management↗
NASA NTRS2013

Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) En Route Trajectory Predictor Requirements and Capabilities

This requirements framework document is designed to support the capture of requirements and capabilities for state-of-the-art trajectory predictors (TPs). This framework has been developed to assist TP experts in capturing a clear, consistent, and cross-comparable set of requirements and capabilities. The goal is to capture capabilities (types of trajectories that can be built), functional requirements (including inputs and outputs), non-functional requirements (including prediction accuracy and computational performance), approaches for constraint relaxation, and input uncertainties. The sections of this framework are based on the Common Trajectory Predictor structure developed by the FAA/Eurocontrol Cooperative R&D Action Plan 16 Committee on Common Trajectory Prediction. It is assumed that the reader is familiar with the Common TP Structure.1 This initial draft is intended as a first cut capture of the En Route TS Capabilities and Requirements. As such, it contains many annotations indicating possible logic errors in the CTAS code or in the description provided. It is intended to work out the details of the annotations with NASA and to update this document at a later time.

framework↗
NASA NTRS2017

Preliminary Investigation of Impact of Technological Impairment on Trajectory-Based Operations

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) incorporates collaborative air traffic management and Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) in order to significantly increase the capacity, efficiency, and predictability of operations in the National Airspace System (NAS), without decreasing safety. This is enabled by airspace users and service providers sharing knowledge about operations that allows prediction of the complete 4D flight trajectory with as little uncertainty as possible. Additionally, new software and hardware technology is critical to reaching NextGen goals, especially with regard to TBO. What if the technologies that are critical for TBO were to be impaired or fail completely? Should there be a malfunction of a piece of the technology, it must be ensured that the whole system does not break down completely or suffer severe impairment. Instead, operations need to be maintained proportionally to the problem and safety needs to be ensured (graceful degradation). This paper proposes a systematic framework to investigate the vulnerability of TBO to technology disruption, and determine the impact of technological impairment on TBO. Two representative technologies are chosen for detailed investigation and the impact of their impairment on the degradation of TBO is illustrated using a weather-related scenario. XXXX There are several possible directions of future work. We believe it is desirable to develop methods to quantitatively assess the impact of technological disruption on TBO and to have the simulation tools to validate the impact. The availability of prognostics and health management methods could be leveraged to predict technological failure/disruption, thus predicting how TBO will be a ected, and possibly pro-actively mitigating the impact. It is important to develop large-scale scenarios where the e ect of technological impairment is prominent, and identify methods to quantitatively assess the extent of TBO degradation. An important goal of such an investigation is the development of failure-resistant resilient trajectory-based oper- ations. Resilience14, 15 is the property of a system to \bounce back" and resume at least a signi cant portion of its functionalities after degradation due to technological impairment(s). A systems resilience includes properties such as \bu ering capacity" (quantifying disruptions the system can absorb or adapt to without a fundamental breakdown in performance or in the systems structure), \ exibility" (ability to restructure itself in response to external changes or pressures), "margin" (how closely the system is currently operating rela- tive to one or another kind of performance boundary), \tolerance" (whether the system gracefully degrades as stress/pressure increase, or collapses quickly when pressure exceeds adaptive capacity), etc. Future work needs to focus on quantifying and improving the resilience of TBO, and identifying resilient design solutions for aviation.

TBO↗
NASA NTRS2011

Ares I-X Best Estimated Trajectory and Comparison with Pre-Flight Predictions

The Ares I-X trajectory reconstruction produced best estimated trajectories of the flight test vehicle ascent through stage separation, and of the first and upper stage entries after separation. The trajectory reconstruction process combines on-board, ground-based, and atmospheric measurements to produce the trajectory estimates. The Ares I-X vehicle had a number of on-board and ground based sensors that were available, including inertial measurement units, radar, air- data, and weather balloons. However, due to problems with calibrations and/or data, not all of the sensor data were used. The trajectory estimate was generated using an Iterative Extended Kalman Filter algorithm, which is an industry standard processing algorithm for filtering and estimation applications. This paper describes the methodology and results of the trajectory reconstruction process, including flight data preprocessing and input uncertainties, trajectory estimation algorithms, output transformations, and comparisons with preflight predictions.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Study of Uncertainties of Predicting Space Shuttle Thermal Environment

Quantitative estimates of the uncertainty in predicting aerodynamic heating rates for a fully reusable space shuttle system are developed and the impact of these uncertainties on Thermal Protection System (TPS) weight are discussed. The study approach consisted of statistical evaluations of the scatter of heating data on shuttle configurations about state-of-the-art heating prediction methods to define the uncertainty in these heating predictions. The uncertainties were then applied as heating rate increments to the nominal predicted heating rate to define the uncertainty in TPS weight. Separate evaluations were made for the booster and orbiter, for trajectories which included boost through reentry and touchdown. For purposes of analysis, the vehicle configuration is divided into areas in which a given prediction method is expected to apply, and separate uncertainty factors and corresponding uncertainty in TPS weight derived for each area.

Fehrman, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Ares I-X Best Estimated Trajectory Analysis and Results

The Ares I-X trajectory reconstruction produced best estimated trajectories of the flight test vehicle ascent through stage separation, and of the first and upper stage entries after separation. The trajectory reconstruction process combines on-board, ground-based, and atmospheric measurements to produce the trajectory estimates. The Ares I-X vehicle had a number of on-board and ground based sensors that were available, including inertial measurement units, radar, air-data, and weather balloons. However, due to problems with calibrations and/or data, not all of the sensor data were used. The trajectory estimate was generated using an Iterative Extended Kalman Filter algorithm, which is an industry standard processing algorithm for filtering and estimation applications. This paper describes the methodology and results of the trajectory reconstruction process, including flight data preprocessing and input uncertainties, trajectory estimation algorithms, output transformations, and comparisons with preflight predictions.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Predictability of Top of Descent Location for Operational Idle-Thrust Descents

To enable arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the flight management system (FMS) in congested airspace, ground automation must accurately predict descent trajectories. To support development of the trajectory predictor and its uncertainty models, commercial flights executed idle-thrust descents at a specified descent speed, and the recorded data included the specified descent speed profile, aircraft weight, and the winds entered into the FMS as well as the radar data. The FMS computed the intended descent path assuming idle thrust after top of descent (TOD), and the controllers and pilots then endeavored to allow the FMS to fly the descent to the meter fix with minimal human intervention. The horizontal flight path, cruise and meter fix altitudes, and actual TOD location were extracted from the radar data. Using approximately 70 descents each in Boeing 757 and Airbus 319/320 aircraft, multiple regression estimated TOD location as a linear function of the available predictive factors. The cruise and meter fix altitudes, descent speed, and wind clearly improve goodness of fit. The aircraft weight improves fit for the Airbus descents but not for the B757. Except for a few statistical outliers, the residuals have absolute value less than 5 nmi. Thus, these predictive factors adequately explain the TOD location, which indicates the data do not include excessive noise.

Stell, Laurel L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multi-Model Monte Carlo Estimators for Trajectory Simulation

Predicting landing radius and other quantities of interest (QoI) for entry, descent, andlanding (EDL) applications requires a viable uncertainty propagation method for quantifying the impact of uncertainties in aerodynamics, atmosphere, mass properties, etc. While standard Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is the de facto standard for producing robust and unbiasedstatistical estimators, it is often infeasible for expensive, high-fidelity models. Low-fidelity models are commonly constructed to replace the high-fidelity model in MC simulation for computational speedup, but at the expense of accuracy and unbiasedness. Emerging multi-model MC methods are bridging this gap by combining predictions from two or more modelsof varying fidelity and computational cost for efficient and unbiased uncertainty propagation.This works establishes a proof of concept for using multi-model MC to increase the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. It is shown that combining a high-fidelity EDL model with low-fidelity models (e.g., data-driven, reduced physics) in this manner has the potential to yield significant efficiency and accuracy gains for certain EDL QoIs versusa standard MC approach. Moreover, the unbiasedness of multi-model MC predictions ishighlighted by showing increased accuracy versus an approach that leverages a low-fidelity model alone.

James E Warner↗
NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Flight Management System Predictions of Idle-Thrust Descents

To enable arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the flight management system (FMS) in congested airspace, ground automation must accurately predict descent trajectories. To support development of the predictor and its uncertainty models, descents from cruise to the meter fix were executed using vertical navigation in a B737-700 simulator and a B777-200 simulator, both with commercial FMSs. For both aircraft types, the FMS computed the intended descent path for a specified speed profile assuming idle thrust after top of descent (TOD), and then it controlled the avionics without human intervention. The test matrix varied aircraft weight, descent speed, and wind conditions. The first analysis in this paper determined the effect of the test matrix parameters on the FMS computation of TOD location, and it compared the results to those for the current ground predictor in the Efficient Descent Advisor (EDA). The second analysis was similar but considered the time to fly a specified distance to the meter fix. The effects of the test matrix variables together with the accuracy requirements for the predictor will determine the allowable error for the predictor inputs. For the B737, the EDA prediction of meter fix crossing time agreed well with the FMS; but its prediction of TOD location probably was not sufficiently accurate to enable idle-thrust descents in congested airspace, even though the FMS and EDA gave similar shapes for TOD location as a function of the test matrix variables. For the B777, the FMS and EDA gave different shapes for the TOD location function, and the EDA prediction of the TOD location is not accurate enough to fully enable the concept. Furthermore, the differences between the FMS and EDA predictions of meter fix crossing time for the B777 indicated that at least one of them was not sufficiently accurate.

Stell, Laurel↗
NASA NTRS2011

Trajectory-Based Takeoff Time Predictions Applied to Tactical Departure Scheduling: Concept Description, System Design, and Initial Observations

Current aircraft departure release times are based on manual estimates of aircraft takeoff times. Uncertainty in takeoff time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route streams and lead to lost throughput. However, technology exists to improve takeoff time estimates by using the aircraft surface trajectory predictions that enable air traffic control tower (ATCT) decision support tools. NASA s Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) is designed to use automated surface trajectory-based takeoff time estimates to improve en route tactical departure scheduling. This is accomplished by integrating an ATCT decision support tool with an en route tactical departure scheduling decision support tool. The PDRC concept and prototype software have been developed, and an initial test was completed at air traffic control facilities in Dallas/Fort Worth. This paper describes the PDRC operational concept, system design, and initial observations.

Engelland, Shawn A.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Voyager 1 Saturn targeting strategy

A trajectory targeting strategy for the Voyager 1 Saturn encounter has been designed to accomodate predicted uncertainties in Titan's ephemeris while maximizing spacecraft safety and science return. The encounter is characterized by a close Titan flyby 18 hours prior to Saturn periapse. Retargeting of the nominal trajectory to account for late updates in Titan's estimated position can disperse the ascending node location, which is nominally situated at a radius of low expected particle density in Saturn's ring plane. The strategy utilizes a floating Titan impact vector magnitude to minimize this dispersion. Encounter trajectory characteristics and optimal tradeoffs are presented.

Cesarone, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Air Traffic Track Data with the AutoBayes Synthesis System

The Next Generation Air Traffic System (NGATS) is aiming to provide substantial computer support for the air traffic controllers. Algorithms for the accurate prediction of aircraft movements are of central importance for such software systems but trajectory prediction has to work reliably in the presence of unknown parameters and uncertainties. We are using the AutoBayes program synthesis system to generate customized data analysis algorithms that process large sets of aircraft radar track data in order to estimate parameters and uncertainties. In this paper, we present, how the tasks of finding structure in track data, estimation of important parameters in climb trajectories, and the detection of continuous descent approaches can be accomplished with compact task-specific AutoBayes specifications. We present an overview of the AutoBayes architecture and describe, how its schema-based approach generates customized analysis algorithms, documented C/C++ code, and detailed mathematical derivations. Results of experiments with actual air traffic control data are discussed.

Schumann, Johann Martin Philip↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison between Hayabusa 2 Spectral Measurements and Simulations

Recent Hayabusa 2 spectral measurements are compared with state-of-the-art shock-layer radiation simulations resulting from the LAURA/HARA code suite. These simulations include coupled ablation, which accounts for the injection of ablation products into the flowfield, and coupled radiation, which accounts for radiative energy loss in the flowfield. To enable the cou- pled ablation simulations, a best-estimate model is developed for Hayabusa’s carbon-phenolic ablator based on available published information. The comparison between the simulations and measurements focuses on three atomic nitrogen lines, two atomic oxygen lines, one atomic hydrogen line, and the CN Violet band system. Parametric uncertainties are evaluated for these features using a recently developed capability in LAURA/HARA. These uncertainties capture the impact of flowfield and radiation modeling uncertainties on the observed radiation simulations, and include the impact of coupled radiation and ablation product emission. The resulting parametric uncertainties range from 50 to over 100% for the atomic lines, and 80% for CN Violet. Uncertainties in flowfield kinetics and non-Boltzmann modeling provide the dominant contribution to these uncertainties. For the atomic nitrogen and oxygen lines, com- parisons between the nominal simulations and measurements show agreement well within these simulation uncertainty bounds, with the measurements within 20% of the nominal simulation over most of the trajectory, and within 10% at peak emission. This excellent agreement is un- precedented for observed radiation measurements of atomic lines, where previous Stardust and Hayabusa 1 comparisons were significantly worse. The improved agreement for these Hayabusa 2 comparisons is both the result of improved measurement quality and enhanced flowfield and radiation modeling. For the ablation product emission from the 656 nm atomic hydrogen line, the agreement between measurements and simulations is within ±20% for all trajectory points except one outlier. This good comparison is surprising considering this species depends on the ablation rate and is shown to have strong wake contribution, which both contribute to the large ≈±70% parametric uncertainty. For the ablation product emission from CN Violet, the simulations over-predict the measurements by over a factor of two early in the trajectory, with the comparison improving later in the trajectory. This disagreement for CN Violet is consistent with the ≈±80% parametric uncertainty bounds evaluated for the simulations. To utilize the excellent agreement between the atomic line simulations and measurements in the assessment of the radiative heating margin for a future flight vehicle, the flowfield property binning (FPB) approach is applied. Using the Mars Sample Return (MSR) Earth Entry System (EES) as an example, the combination of the excellent Hayabusa comparisons and the FPB analysis justify nearly a 10% reduction in the radiative heating margin from an assumed baseline margin of 30%. This direct quantitative link between observed radiation measurements and the radia- tive heating margin of future flight vehicles demonstrates the value of these observed radiation measurements.

Shock-Layer Radiative Heating↗
NASA NTRS1991

Trajectory and navigation system design for robotic and piloted missions to Mars

Future Mars exploration missions, both robotic and piloted, may utilize Earth to Mars transfer trajectories that are significantly different from one another, depending upon the type of mission being flown and the time period during which the flight takes place. The use of new or emerging technologies for future missions to Mars, such as aerobraking and nuclear rocket propulsion, may yield navigation requirements that are much more stringent than those of past robotic missions, and are very difficult to meet for some trajectories. This article explores the interdependencies between the properties of direct Earth to Mars trajectories and the Mars approach navigation accuracy that can be achieved using different radio metric data types, such as ranging measurements between an approaching spacecraft and Mars orbiting relay satellites, or Earth based measurements such as coherent Doppler and very long baseline interferometry. The trajectory characteristics affecting navigation performance are identified, and the variations in accuracy that might be experienced over the range of different Mars approach trajectories are discussed. The results predict that three sigma periapsis altitude navigation uncertainties of 2 to 10 km can be achieved when a Mars orbiting satellite is used as a navigation aid.

Thurman, S. W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Trajectory and navigation system design for robotic and piloted missions to Mars

Future Mars exploration missions, both robotic and piloted, may utilize Earth to Mars transfer trajectories that are significantly different from one another, depending upon the type of mission being flown and the time period during which the flight takes place. The use of new or emerging technologies for future missions to Mars, such as aerobraking and nuclear rocket propulsion, may yield navigation requirements that are much more stringent than those of past robotic missions, and are very difficult to meet for some trajectories. This article explores the interdependencies between the properties of direct Earth to Mars trajectories and the Mars approach navigation accuracy that can be achieved using different radio metric data types, such as ranging measurements between an approaching spacecraft and Mars orbiting relay satellites, or Earth based measurements such as coherent Doppler and very long baseline interferometry. The trajectory characteristics affecting navigation performance are identified, and the variations in accuracy that might be experienced over the range of different Mars approach trajectories are discussed. The results predict that three sigma periapsis altitude navigation uncertainties of 2 to 10 km can be achieved when a Mars orbiting satellite is used as a navigation aid.

Thurman, S. W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Fast and Precise Trajectory Simulation for Entry, Descent, and Landing Using A Multi-Model Monte Carlo Approach

Predicting landing radius and other quantities of interest (QoI) for entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications requires a viable uncertainty propagation method for quantifying the impact of uncertainties in wind pattern variations, atmospheric uncertainties, etc. While standard MC simulation is the defacto standard for providing robust and unbiased predictions,it is often infeasible for expensive, high-fidelity EDL models. Low-fidelity models are commonly constructed to replace the high-fidelity model in MC simulation for computational speedup,but at the expense of accuracy and unbiasedness. Emerging multi-model MC methods are bridging this gap by combining predictions from two or more models of varying fidelity and computational cost for efficient and unbiased uncertainty propagation. This work explores the use of multi-model MC for increasing the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. It is shown that combining a high-fidelity EDL model with low-fidelity models (e.g,data-driven, reduced physics) yields substantial computational speedup versus standard MCwith only the high-fidelity model. Moreover, the unbiasedness of multi-model MC predictions is highlighted by showing increased accuracy versus an approach that leverages a low-fidelity surrogate model alone.

James E. Warner↗