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Attenuated direct and scattered wave propagation on simulated land mobile satellite service paths in the presence of trees

Measurements were made of direct path with no trees, attenuated direct, and tree scattered signal levels at 1.3 GHz. Signals were received in two small groves of mixed hardwood trees. In the groves studied, average total signal levels were about 13 dB below adjacent no-trees locations, with attenuated direct signal levels about 14.6 dB below the no-trees case and scattered signals about 17.3 dB below the no-trees case. A simple model for land mobile satellite service (LMSS) propagation in groves of trees is proposed. The model assumes a constant scattered signal contribution at 17 dB below no-trees levels added to an attenuated direct signal which varies, depending on the number and density of trees in the direct path. When total signal levels are strong, the attenuated direct signal dominates. When total signal levels are more than 15 dB below no-trees levels, the scattered signals dominate.

Campbell, Richard L.↗

Effect of tree structure on X-band microwave signature of conifers

Experimental studies are performed on some coniferous trees (Austrian pine, Nordmann spruce, and Norway spruce) to investigate the relation between the tree architecture and radar signal at X-band. For a single tree, the RCS is measured as a function of the scatterer location at 90 deg incidence. It is found that the main scatterers are the leafy branches and the difference between sigma(vv) and sigma(hh) is significant at the upper portion of the tree. At the lower portion of the tree, sigma(vv) and sigma(hh) have almost the same level. For a group of trees the angular trends of sigma(vv) and sigma(hh) are measured. It is found that the levels of sigma(vv) and sigma(hh) are of the same order, but their angular trends vary from one tree species to the other depending on the tree species structure. The interpretation of these experimental results is carried out with the help of a theoretical model which accounts for the structure of the tree. According to this theoretical study, the major scattering trend is due to the leaves, while the perturbation to the angular trend and the level difference between sigma(vv) and sigma(hh) are due to the branch orientation distributions (i.e., the tree architecture).

Mougin, Eric↗

Improving Carbon Estimation of Large Tropical Trees by Linking Airborne Lidar Crown Size to Field Inventory

Quantifying tropical aboveground biomass (agb) is an outstanding challenge that requires knowledge on the 3D structure of forests. Recent studies suggest that the uncertainty in estimating agb of large trees is significantly reduced if tree height and crown size are accounted for in addition to the traditional trunk diameter and wood density. Due to the fact that field inventory techniques are not adapted to characterize the 3D forest structure, crown size metrics (e.g. height and radius) are commonly estimated as a function of trunk diameter using allometric models with limitations in explaining crown variability. Airborne lidar techniques have the potential for characterizing tree height and crown size but are not adapted to estimate trunk diameter, which is a strong predictor of agb. Here, we investigate the synergy of field inventory and airborne lidar techniques to characterize the forest structure by assessing the uncertainty introduced by the field-based allometric models in the estimation of agb at the tree-level. We focus in 1454 large individual trees (trunk diameter > 60 cm) located within the La Selva Biological Station for which we dispose of field observations (trunk diameter and wood density) and lidar derived metrics (tree height and crown radius). We show that the field-based allometric models overestimate tree height and underestimate crown radius. As a result, the allometric approach overestimates the tree-level agb in 0.8 Mg when considering the 1454 individuals and the errors can reach more than 50% of the agb of individual trees. These errors on the large trees agb highly impact on the plot-level results and then propagate to the estimation of carbon stocks at the regional and national-levels.

Clark, David↗

2024 IUFRO Tree Biotechnology Conference (Aug 4-8, 2024)

The 2024 IUFRO Tree Biotechnology Conference is the biennial meeting on genomics, molecular biology, and biotechnology of forest trees, associated with the IUFRO Working Party 2.04.06. This year's meeting was held in Annapolis, MD, USA from August 4th to 8th and was hosted by Yiping Qi (University of Maryland), Edward Eisenstein (University of Maryland), Gary Coleman (University of Maryland), and Heather Coleman (Syracuse University). The conference covered seven topics over the course of five days: 1) Biological and ecological insights from OMICS, 2) Advancing technologies for targeted trait manipulation and acceptability to diverse tree species, 3) Genes, development, and physiology, 4) Translating genomics and biotechnology to practice, 5) Trees in a changing world, 6) Genetic and phenotypic diversity for breeding and genomic selection, and 7) Biotechnology for biomaterials and bioeconomy. In addition to the sessions, there were two plenary sessions, provided by John Ralph (University of Wisconsin) and Tanja Pyrhäjärvi (University of Helsinki). The meeting celebrated the second awardees of the newly created IUFRO WG 2.04.06 Award: Excellence in Forest Molecular Biology and Genomics, which was presented to Chung-Jui (C.J.) Tsai (University of Georgia). Greg Goralogia (Oregon State University) was the recipient of the associated Early Career Award. The scientific presentations at the conference highlighted cutting-edge advancements in many facets of forest biotechnology research, including applications of genomic selection in forest genetics and breeding, the use of genetic editing, tree physiology, stress response, molecular breeding, wood development, "omics" technologies, and the social and economic impacts of genetically modified (GM) trees. Scientific take homes from the meeting include the power of NMR to dissect the composition of lignin, the genomic diversity of forest trees that has enormous potential for tree improvement and the integration of systems biology with climate and geographical data. The conference attracted a mix of students (25), postdoctoral fellows (32), and scientists from academia (66) and industry (18). In all, the conference was attended by 141 registered participants, representing 20 countries that participated in 23 invited lectures (including 6 'early-career' keynotes), 27 voluntary talks and 61 poster presentations. Support for the conference was drawn from a wide variety of Academia, Industry, and Government sources, and included financial support from several tree improvement companies. Overall, the conference was a great success, providing an exceptional mix of science and social activities in a relaxed and collegial atmosphere. More information about the meeting can be found at treebiotech.org. The next meeting will be held in Stellenbosch, South Africa, in 2026, hosted jointly by Zander Myburg, Dave Drew (University of Stellenbosch,) and Sanushka Naidoo (University of Pretoria, FABI).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Monitoring of Volcanogenic CO2-Induced Tree Kills with AVIRIS Image Data at Mammoth Mountain, California

Elevated cold CO2 emissions from the flank of Mammoth Mountain volcano on the southwest rim of the Long Valley Caldera, eastern California, have been the cause of over 100 acres of dead trees in that area since 1990. The source of the CO2 gas is thought to be from one or more magmatic intrusion(s) beneath Mammoth Mountain and is probably related to a period of seismic unrest that began in 1989. The gas rises to the surface probably from depths of a few kilometers, along faults and fracture zones. The gas is at ambient temperature and diffuses from the soil rather than discharging from distinct vents. Typically, soil gas concentrations in tree-kill areas range from 10% to over 90% CO2 by volume, as compared to normal background of < 1% in healthy forest. The gas composition is predominantly CO2 mixed with air (sulfur gases are not elevated), and C and He isotopic ratios are consistent with a magmatic origin for the gas. The total CO2 emission has been estimated at 1200 tons/day, comparable to the emissions at Kilauea. Some of the dead trees are as old as 250 years, suggesting that similar anomalous gas discharge has not occurred over the previous few hundred years. The delta C-13/12 ratio in the Mammoth Mountain CO2 emission averages about -4.5 (PDB standard). This is consistent with a mantle source for the carbon. However, the large volume of the emission suggests that not all of the CO2 is necessarily being generated from the 1989 intrusion. The voluminous gas could be leaking from a vapor-rich zone, capped by an impermeable layer, that was supplied CO2 from degassing of many small magma bodies that intruded beneath the mountain over a period of decades or centuries. Earthquakes in 1989 could have fractured the capping layer and provided pathways for the escape Of CO2 to the surface. Alternatively, some of the CO2 could be derived from contact metamorphism of carbonate rocks intruded by magma. Carbonate-bearing Paleozoic roof pendents crop out in close proximity to Mammoth Mountain. It is possible that similar rocks could occur at depth beneath Mammoth Mountain, and could have contributed CO2 from thermal decomposition caused from recent intrusions. We hope to determine the C-13/12 ratio of a suite of samples to demonstrate if the carbonate rocks could be the source of at least part of the 1990-97 CO2 emission. To better understand the behavior of the CO2 gas, we have used hyperspectral imagery data of Mammoth Mountain acquired from the Airborne Visual/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) to map out areas of dead trees. The areas of tree kill have increased in size from about 50 acres in 1994 to about 100 acres in 1997. Tree kill is the major surface manifestation of the carbon dioxide flux at Mammoth Mountain, is widely dispersed, and has been cursorily mapped by regular field mapping techniques in the area. Initial investigations using airborne digital imagery from the Thematic Mapper Simulator (NS001) and AVIRIS instruments have shown extremely encouraging results for complete delineation of the vegetation anomalies. The most successful maps (when compared with ground truth) were developed using AVIRIS data with spectral angle mapper and matched filter algorithms with a data set that was reduced to maximum variance via the minimum noise fraction transformation. The result of this work is a series of maps that show the tree kill areas occurring in an halo-pattern surrounding the base of Mammoth Mountain. We are applying these same techniques to earlier AVIRIS images of Mammoth Mountain to examine the progression of the tree kill areas over time. Temporal maps of the tree kill areas may assist in constructing a picture of the structure beneath Mammoth Mountain.

Hausback, Brian P.↗

Understanding the Scalability of Bayesian Network Inference using Clique Tree Growth Curves

Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to represent and efficiently compute with multi-variate probability distributions in a wide range of disciplines. One of the main approaches to perform computation in BNs is clique tree clustering and propagation. In this approach, BN computation consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. There is a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time, and BN computation time in more general, depends on variations in BN size and structure. On the one hand, complexity results tell us that many interesting BN queries are NP-hard or worse to answer, and it is not hard to find application BNs where the clique tree approach in practice cannot be used. On the other hand, it is well-known that tree-structured BNs can be used to answer probabilistic queries in polynomial time. In this article, we develop an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN's non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, or (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Our approach is based on combining analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, we consequently have two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, we systematically increase the degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, and find that root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves. It is believed that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering, provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms, and presents an aid for analytical trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves.

Mengshoel, Ole Jakob↗

Using Decision Trees to Detect and Isolate Simulated Leaks in the J-2X Rocket Engine

The goal of this work was to use data-driven methods to automatically detect and isolate faults in the J-2X rocket engine. It was decided to use decision trees, since they tend to be easier to interpret than other data-driven methods. The decision tree algorithm automatically "learns" a decision tree by performing a search through the space of possible decision trees to find one that fits the training data. The particular decision tree algorithm used is known as C4.5. Simulated J-2X data from a high-fidelity simulator developed at Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne and known as the Detailed Real-Time Model (DRTM) was used to "train" and test the decision tree. Fifty-six DRTM simulations were performed for this purpose, with different leak sizes, different leak locations, and different times of leak onset. To make the simulations as realistic as possible, they included simulated sensor noise, and included a gradual degradation in both fuel and oxidizer turbine efficiency. A decision tree was trained using 11 of these simulations, and tested using the remaining 45 simulations. In the training phase, the C4.5 algorithm was provided with labeled examples of data from nominal operation and data including leaks in each leak location. From the data, it "learned" a decision tree that can classify unseen data as having no leak or having a leak in one of the five leak locations. In the test phase, the decision tree produced very low false alarm rates and low missed detection rates on the unseen data. It had very good fault isolation rates for three of the five simulated leak locations, but it tended to confuse the remaining two locations, perhaps because a large leak at one of these two locations can look very similar to a small leak at the other location.

Schwabacher, Mark A.↗

MODIS Tree Cover Validation for the Circumpolar Taiga-Tundra Transition Zone

A validation of the 2005 500m MODIS vegetation continuous fields (VCF) tree cover product in the circumpolar taiga-tundra ecotone was performed using high resolution Quickbird imagery. Assessing the VCF's performance near the northern limits of the boreal forest can help quantify the accuracy of the product within this vegetation transition area. The circumpolar region was divided into longitudinal zones and validation sites were selected in areas of varying tree cover where Quickbird imagery is available in Google Earth. Each site was linked to the corresponding VCF pixel and overlaid with a regular dot grid within the VCF pixel's boundary to estimate percent tree crown cover in the area. Percent tree crown cover was estimated using Quickbird imagery for 396 sites throughout the circumpolar region and related to the VCF's estimates of canopy cover for 2000-2005. Regression results of VCF inter-annual comparisons (2000-2005) and VCF-Quickbird image-interpreted estimates indicate that: (1) Pixel-level, inter-annual comparisons of VCF estimates of percent canopy cover were linearly related (mean R(sup 2) = 0.77) and exhibited an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 10.1 % and an average root mean square difference (RMSD) of 7.3%. (2) A comparison of image-interpreted percent tree crown cover estimates based on dot counts on Quickbird color images by two different interpreters were more variable (R(sup 2) = 0.73, RMSE = 14.8%, RMSD = 18.7%) than VCF inter-annual comparisons. (3) Across the circumpolar boreal region, 2005 VCF-Quickbird comparisons were linearly related, with an R(sup 2) = 0.57, a RMSE = 13.4% and a RMSD = 21.3%, with a tendency to over-estimate areas of low percent tree cover and anomalous VCF results in Scandinavia. The relationship of the VCF estimates and ground reference indicate to potential users that the VCF's tree cover values for individual pixels, particularly those below 20% tree cover, may not be precise enough to monitor 500m pixel-level tree cover in the taiga-tundra transition zone.

Montesano, P. M.↗

Object-based Mapping of the Circumpolar Taiga-Tundra Ecotone with MODIS Tree Cover

The circumpolar taiga-tundra ecotone was delineated using an image segmentation based mapping approach with multi-annual MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields (VCF) tree cover data. Circumpolar tree canopy cover (TCC) throughout the ecotone was derived by averaging MODIS VCF data from 2000 - 2005 and adjusting the averaged values using linear equations relating MODIS TCC to Quickbird-derived tree cover estimates. The adjustment helped mitigate VCF's overestimation of tree cover in lightly forested regions. An image segmentation grouped pixels representing similar tree cover into polygonal features (objects) that form the map of the transition zone. Eachfeature represents an area much larger than the 500m MODIS pixel to characterize thepatterns of sparse forest patches on a regional scale. Comparisons of the adjusted average tree cover data were made with (1) two existing tree line definitions aggregated for each 1deg longitudinal interval in North America and Eurasia and (2) Landsat-derived Canadianproportion of forest cover for Canada. The adjusted TCC from MODIS VCF shows, on average, greater than 12% TCC for all but one regional zone at the intersection with independently delineated tree lines. Adjusted values track closely with Canadian proportion of forest cover data in areas of low tree cover. Those polygons near the boreal/tundra interface with either (1) mean adjusted TCC values between 5-20% , or (2) mean adjusted TCC values <5% but with a standard deviation > 5% were used to identify the ecotone.

Ransom, Kenneth J.↗

Object-Based Mapping of the Circumpolar Taiga-Tundra Ecotone with MODIS Tree Cover

The circumpolar taiga tundra ecotone was delineated using an image-segmentation-based mapping approach with multi-annual MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields (VCF) tree cover data. Circumpolar tree canopy cover (TCC) throughout the ecotone was derived by averaging MODIS VCF data from 2000 to 2005 and adjusting the averaged values using linear equations relating MODIS TCC to Quickbird-derived tree cover estimates. The adjustment helped mitigate VCF's overestimation of tree cover in lightly forested regions. An image segmentation procedure was used to group pixels representing similar tree cover into polygonal features (segmentation objects) that form the map of the transition zone. Each polygon represents an area much larger than the 500 m MODIS pixel and characterizes the patterns of sparse forest patches on a regional scale. Those polygons near the boreal/tundra interface with either (1) mean adjusted TCC values from5 to 20%, or (2) mean adjusted TCC values greater than 5% but with a standard deviation less than 5% were used to identify the ecotone. Comparisons of the adjusted average tree cover data were made with (1) two existing tree line definitions aggregated for each 1 degree longitudinal interval in North America and Eurasia, (2) Landsat-derived Canadian proportion of forest cover for Canada, and (3) with canopy cover estimates extracted from airborne profiling lidar data that transected 1238 of the TCC polygons. The adjusted TCC from MODIS VCF shows, on average, less than 12% TCC for all but one regional zone at the intersection with independently delineated tree lines. Adjusted values track closely with Canadian proportion of forest cover data in areas of low tree cover. A comparison of the 1238 TCC polygons with profiling lidar measurements yielded an overall accuracy of 67.7%.

Ranson, K. J.↗

Calibration and Validation of Landsat Tree Cover in the Taiga-Tundra Ecotone

Monitoring current forest characteristics in the taiga-tundra ecotone (TTE) at multiple scales is critical for understanding its vulnerability to structural changes. A 30 m spatial resolution Landsat-based tree canopy cover map has been calibrated and validated in the TTE with reference tree cover data from airborne LiDAR and high resolution spaceborne images across the full range of boreal forest tree cover. This domain-specific calibration model used estimates of forest height to determine reference forest cover that best matched Landsat estimates. The model removed the systematic under-estimation of tree canopy cover greater than 80% and indicated that Landsat estimates of tree canopy cover more closely matched canopies at least 2 m in height rather than 5 m. The validation improved estimates of uncertainty in tree canopy cover in discontinuous TTE forests for three temporal epochs (2000, 2005, and 2010) by reducing systematic errors, leading to increases in tree canopy cover uncertainty. Average pixel-level uncertainties in tree canopy cover were 29.0%, 27.1% and 31.1% for the 2000, 2005 and 2010 epochs, respectively. Maps from these calibrated data improve the uncertainty associated with Landsat tree canopy cover estimates in the discontinuous forests of the circumpolar TTE.

Montesano, Paul Mannix↗

Sub-Continental-Scale Carbon Stocks of Individual Trees in African Drylands

The distribution of dryland trees and their density, cover, size, mass and carbon content are not well known at sub-continental to continental scales. This information is important for ecological protection, carbon accounting, climate mitigation and restoration efforts of dryland ecosystems. We assessed more than 9.9 billion trees derived from more than 300,000 satellite images, covering semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa north of the Equator. We attributed wood, foliage and root carbon to every tree in the 0–1,000 mm year −1 rainfall zone by coupling field data, machine learning, satellite data and high-performance computing. Average carbon stocks of individual trees ranged from 0.54 Mg C ha −1 and 63 kg C tree −1 in the arid zone to 3.7 Mg C ha −1 and 98 kg tree −1 in the sub-humid zone. Overall, we estimated the total carbon for our study area to be 0.84 (±19.8%) Pg C. Comparisons with 14 previous TRENDY numerical simulation studies23 for our area found that the density and carbon stocks of scattered trees have been underestimated by three models and overestimated by 11 models, respectively. This benchmarking can help understand the carbon cycle and address concerns about land degradation. We make available a linked database of wood mass, foliage mass, root mass and carbon stock of each tree for scientists, policymakers, dryland-restoration practitioners and farmers, who can use it to estimate farmland tree carbon stocks from tablets or laptops.

Compton Tucker↗

Roadside tree attenuation measurements at UHF for land mobile satellite systems

Tree attenuation results at 870 MHz are described for experiments conducted in October 1985 and March 1986 in Central Maryland. These experiments employed a helicopter as a source platform and a van with receiver and data acquisition instrumentation. Tree attenuation results were obtained for the cases in which the van was stationary and in motion. The experiments were performed for the purpose of providing the designers of planned land mobile satellite systems with important elements in the determination of link parameter requirements; namely, the expected fading statistics due to roadside trees for both mobile and stationary vehicles. Single tree attenuation results gave worst case median fades as high as 15 dB although roadside tree values were noted to produce fades in excess of 20 dB for small percentages of time. The cumulative fade distributions and their relative contributions as a function of path elevation angle, right side versus left side driving, and different road types are derived from the field measurements. Upon comparing the attenuations from bare deciduous trees (March 1986) with those due to trees in full foliage (October 1985), the increase in dB attenuations were, in general, less than 25 percent for the dynamic cases, and less than 40 percent for the worst case static configuration. This result demonstrates that the dominant fading is caused by the wooded tree branches as opposed to the leaves on these branches. The tail end of the observed fade distributions was observed to follow lognormal distributions with respect to dB attenuation.

Goldhirsh, Julius↗

Object-oriented fault tree evaluation program for quantitative analyses

Object-oriented programming can be combined with fault free techniques to give a significantly improved environment for evaluating the safety and reliability of large complex systems for space missions. Deep knowledge about system components and interactions, available from reliability studies and other sources, can be described using objects that make up a knowledge base. This knowledge base can be interrogated throughout the design process, during system testing, and during operation, and can be easily modified to reflect design changes in order to maintain a consistent information source. An object-oriented environment for reliability assessment has been developed on a Texas Instrument (TI) Explorer LISP workstation. The program, which directly evaluates system fault trees, utilizes the object-oriented extension to LISP called Flavors that is available on the Explorer. The object representation of a fault tree facilitates the storage and retrieval of information associated with each event in the tree, including tree structural information and intermediate results obtained during the tree reduction process. Reliability data associated with each basic event are stored in the fault tree objects. The object-oriented environment on the Explorer also includes a graphical tree editor which was modified to display and edit the fault trees.

Patterson-Hine, F. A.↗

Automatic translation of digraph to fault-tree models

The author presents a technique for converting digraph models, including those models containing cycles, to a fault-tree format. A computer program which automatically performs this translation using an object-oriented representation of the models has been developed. The fault-trees resulting from translations can be used for fault-tree analysis and diagnosis. Programs to calculate fault-tree and digraph cut sets and perform diagnosis with fault-tree models have also been developed. The digraph to fault-tree translation system has been successfully tested on several digraphs of varying size and complexity. Details of some representative translation problems are presented. Most of the computation performed by the program is dedicated to finding minimal cut sets for digraph nodes in order to break cycles in the digraph. Fault-trees produced by the translator have been successfully used with NASA's Fault-Tree Diagnosis System (FTDS) to produce automated diagnostic systems.

Iverson, David L.↗

Tree Classification Software

This paper introduces the IND Tree Package to prospective users. IND does supervised learning using classification trees. This learning task is a basic tool used in the development of diagnosis, monitoring and expert systems. The IND Tree Package was developed as part of a NASA project to semi-automate the development of data analysis and modelling algorithms using artificial intelligence techniques. The IND Tree Package integrates features from CART and C4 with newer Bayesian and minimum encoding methods for growing classification trees and graphs. The IND Tree Package also provides an experimental control suite on top. The newer features give improved probability estimates often required in diagnostic and screening tasks. The package comes with a manual, Unix 'man' entries, and a guide to tree methods and research. The IND Tree Package is implemented in C under Unix and was beta-tested at university and commercial research laboratories in the United States.

Buntine, Wray↗

An implementation of a tree code on a SIMD, parallel computer

We describe a fast tree algorithm for gravitational N-body simulation on SIMD parallel computers. The tree construction uses fast, parallel sorts. The sorted lists are recursively divided along their x, y and z coordinates. This data structure is a completely balanced tree (i.e., each particle is paired with exactly one other particle) and maintains good spatial locality. An implementation of this tree-building algorithm on a 16k processor Maspar MP-1 performs well and constitutes only a small fraction (approximately 15%) of the entire cycle of finding the accelerations. Each node in the tree is treated as a monopole. The tree search and the summation of accelerations also perform well. During the tree search, node data that is needed from another processor is simply fetched. Roughly 55% of the tree search time is spent in communications between processors. We apply the code to two problems of astrophysical interest. The first is a simulation of the close passage of two gravitationally, interacting, disk galaxies using 65,636 particles. We also simulate the formation of structure in an expanding, model universe using 1,048,576 particles. Our code attains speeds comparable to one head of a Cray Y-MP, so single instruction, multiple data (SIMD) type computers can be used for these simulations. The cost/performance ratio for SIMD machines like the Maspar MP-1 make them an extremely attractive alternative to either vector processors or large multiple instruction, multiple data (MIMD) type parallel computers. With further optimizations (e.g., more careful load balancing), speeds in excess of today's vector processing computers should be possible.

Olson, Kevin M.↗

Fault Tree in the Trenches, A Success Story

Getting caught up in the explanation of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) minutiae is easy. In fact, most FTA literature tends to address FTA concepts and methodology. Yet there seems to be few articles addressing actual design changes resulting from the successful application of fault tree analysis. This paper demonstrates how fault tree analysis was used to identify and solve a potentially catastrophic mechanical problem at a rocket motor manufacturer. While developing the fault tree given in this example, the analyst was told by several organizations that the piece of equipment in question had been evaluated by several committees and organizations, and that the analyst was wasting his time. The fault tree/cutset analysis resulted in a joint-redesign of the control system by the tool engineering group and the fault tree analyst, as well as bragging rights for the analyst. (That the fault tree found problems where other engineering reviews had failed was not lost on the other engineering groups.) Even more interesting was that this was the analyst's first fault tree which further demonstrates how effective fault tree analysis can be in guiding (i.e., forcing) the analyst to take a methodical approach in evaluating complex systems.

Long, R. Allen↗