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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Trends in the Vertical Distribution of Ozone

Analyses of satellite, ground-based, and balloon measurements allow updated estimates of trends in the vertical profile of ozone since 1979. The results show overall consistency among several independent measurement systems, particularly for northern hemisphere midlatitudes where most balloon and ground-based measurements are made. Combined trend estimates over these latitudes for the period 1979-96 show statistically significant negative trends at all attitudes between 10 and 45 km, with two local extremes: -7.4 +/- 2.0% per decade at 40 km and -7.3 +/- 4.6% per decade at 15 km attitude. There is a strong seasonal variation in trends over northern midlatitudes in the attitude range of 10 to 18 km. with the largest ozone loss during winter and spring. The profile trends are in quantitative agreement with independently measured trends in column ozone, the amount of ozone in a column above the surface. The vertical profiles of ozone trends provide a fingerprint for the mechanisms of ozone depletion over the last two decades,

Cunnold, Derek M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Estimating stratospheric temperature trends using satellite microwave radiances

The objective was to evaluate and intercompare stratospheric temperatures using Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) data as a basis data set. The MSU, aboard the NOAA polar orbiter satellite series, provides twice daily global coverage over a layer (50-150 mb) at approximately a (170km)(exp 2) resolution. Conventional data sets will be compared to the satellite data in the lower stratosphere in order to assess their quality for trend computations.

Hudson, Robert D.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Estimates of AOD Trends (2002 - 2012) Over the World's Major Cities Based on the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis - Volume 32

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has extended the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) tool with five atmospheric aerosol species (sulfates, organic carbon, black carbon, mineral dust and sea salt). This inclusion of aerosol reanalysis data is now known as MERRAero. This study analyses a ten-year period (July 2002 - June 2012) MERRAero aerosol reanalysis applied to the study of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its trends for the aforementioned aerosol species over the world's major cities (with a population of over 2 million inhabitants). We found that a proportion of various aerosol species in total AOD exhibited a geographical dependence. Cities in industrialized regions (North America, Europe, central and eastern Asia) are characterized by a strong proportion of sulfate aerosols. Organic carbon aerosols are dominant over cities which are located in regions where biomass burning frequently occurs (South America and southern Africa). Mineral dust dominates other aerosol species in cities located in proximity to the major deserts (northern Africa and western Asia). Sea salt aerosols are prominent in coastal cities but are dominant aerosol species in very few of them. AOD trends are declining over cities in North America, Europe and Japan, as a result of effective air quality regulation. By contrast, the economic boom in China and India has led to increasing AOD trends over most cities in these two highly-populated countries. Increasing AOD trends over cities in the Middle East are caused by increasing desert dust.

AOD↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vulnerability of Wetlands Due to Projected Sea-Level Rise in the Coastal Plains of the South and Southeast United States

Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise, yet knowledge about their extent and distribution is often limited. We developed a land cover classification of wetlands in the coastal plains of the southern United States along the Gulf of Mexico (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida) using 6161 very-high (2 m per pixel) resolution WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images from 2012 to 2015. Area extent estimations were obtained for the following vegetated classes: marsh, scrub, grass, forested upland, and forested wetland, located in elevation brackets between 0 and 10 m above sea level at 0.1 m intervals. Sea-level trends were estimated for each coastal state using tide gauge data collected over the period 1983–2021 and projected for 2100 using the trend estimated over that period. These trends were considered conservative, as sea level rise in the region accelerated between 2010 and 2021. Estimated losses in vegetation area due to sea level rise by 2100 are projected to be at least 12,587 km 2 , of which 3224 km 2 would be coastal wetlands. Louisiana is expected to suffer the largest losses in vegetation (80%) and coastal wetlands (75%) by 2100. Such high-resolution coastal mapping products help to guide adaptation plans in the region, including planning for wetland conservation and coastal development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

A statistical trend analysis of ozonesonde data

A detailed statistical analysis of monthly averages of ozonesond readings is performed to assess trends in ozone in the troposphere and the lower to midstratosphere. Regression time series models, which include seasonal and trend factors, are estimated for 13 stations located mainly in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. At each station, trend estimates are calculated for 14 'fractional' Umkehr layers covering the altitude range from 0 to 33 km. For the 1970-1982 period, the main findings indicate an overall negative trend in ozonesonde data in the lower stratosphere (15-21 km) of about -0.5 percent per year, and some evidence of a positive trend in the troposphere (0-5 km) of about 0.8 percent per year. An in-depth sensitivity study of the trend estimates is performed with respect to various correction procedures used to normalize ozonesonde readings to Dobson total ozone measurements. The main results indicate that the negative trend findings in the 15- to 21-km altitude region are robust to the normalization procedures considered.

Tiao, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Uncertainty in Tropical Ocean Latent Heat Flux Variability During the Last 25 Years

When averaged over the tropical oceans (30deg N/S), latent heat flux anomalies derived from passive microwave satellite measurements as well as reanalyses and climate models driven with specified seal-surface temperatures show considerable disagreement in their decadal trends. These estimates range from virtually no trend to values over 8.4 W/sq m decade. Satellite estimates also tend to have a larger interannual signal related to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events than do reanalyses or model simulations. An analysis of wind speed and humidity going into bulk aerodynamic calculations used to derive these fluxes reveals several error sources. Among these are apparent remaining intercalibration issues affecting passive microwave satellite 10 m wind speeds and systematic biases in retrieval of near-surface humidity. Likewise, reanalyses suffer from discontinuities in availability of assimilated data that affect near surface meteorological variables. The results strongly suggest that current latent heat flux trends are overestimated.

Robertson, F. R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detection of local-scale changes in greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments using micrometeorological methods and comparison to a high-resolution inventory

We used the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) flux-variance relationship to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from high-precision mole fraction measurements at 3 instrumented urban communication towers over several years, demonstrating the ability of this method to detect and quantify changes in emissions. Depending on data availability, we used carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements and/or tracer ratios to estimate fluxes at 1 urban site (Site 3) and 1 suburban site (Site 7) in Indianapolis, IN, USA, and 1 urban site (COM) in Los Angeles, CA, USA. We also compared the estimated fluxes of CO 2 from fossil fuel sources (CO 2 ff) at Sites 3 and 7 and the total CO 2 fluxes at Site 3 to 20 m, hourly resolution subdomains of the high-resolution CO 2 emissions inventory, Hestia, for the year 2020, introducing a new way to evaluate emissions inventories at small spatial and temporal scales. Using the flux-variance relationship, we detected and quantified abrupt decreases in CO and CO 2 fluxes at Site 3 and COM in April 2020, coinciding with the stay-at-home order due to COVID-19 pandemic, as well as abrupt decreases in CO and CO 2 fluxes at Site 3 in July 2018 coinciding with a highway closure next to the site. The Hestia emissions inventory detected a decrease in emissions in April 2020 at Sites 3 and 7, but this decrease differed in magnitude from those detected in the atmospheric estimates. Seasonal trends in emissions are similar between Hestia and the atmospheric estimates at Site 7. We use differences in seasonal and spatial trends between the flux estimation methods to identify potential sources of uncertainty in both the atmospheric and inventory methods. The results from this study show that the flux-variance estimation method is a useful tool to monitor local-scale emissions and evaluate high-resolution emissions inventories.

Carbon dioxide↗
NASA NTRS2014

Long-Term Changes in Lower Tropospheric Baseline Ozone Concentrations:

Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northernmidlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by approximately 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only approximately 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture approximately 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NO(sub x), an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.

atmospheric composition↗
NASA NTRS2019

Changes in Vegetation Cover of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Estimated from MODIS Greenness Trends, 2000 to 2018

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) was established in 1980 and covers 19 million acres (77,000 km2) in northeast Alaska. Wildlife habitats in the ANWR are vulnerable to long-lasting effects from any disturbance, in part because short growing seasons in the arctic provide limited time for species to recover. Trends and transitions in the growing season MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series at 250-m resolution were analyzed for the period from 2000 to 2018 to understand recent patterns of vegetation change in all ecoregions of the ANWR. Statistical analysis of changes in each MODIS pixel NDVI time series was conducted using the "Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend" method (BFAST) to map regional change rates. Results suggested that most negative NDVI anomalies in the tundra-covered river drainages of the Brooks Range Mountains and coastal plain have been associated with early spring thawing and elevated levels of surface moisture in low elevation drainages of the northern ANWR ecoregions.

Arctic National Wildlife Refuge↗
NASA NTRS2019

Changes in Vegetation Cover of Yukon River Drainages in Interior Alaska Estimated from MODIS Greenness Trends, 2000 to 2018

Trends and transitions in the growing season MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series at 250-m resolution were analyzed for the period from 2000 to 2018 to understand recent patterns of vegetation change in ecosystems of the Yukon River basin in interior Alaska. Statistical analysis of changes in the NDVI time series was conducted using the "Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend" method (BFAST). This structural change analysis indicated that NDVI breakpoints and negative 18-yr trends in vegetation greenness over the years since 2000 could be explained in large part by the impacts of severe wildfires, commonly affecting shrubland and forested ecosystems at relatively low elevations (< 300 m).

Potter, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS2020

Global Estimates and Long-Term Trends of Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations (1998-2018)

Exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a leading risk factor for mortality. We develop global estimates of annual PM2.5 concentrations and trends for 1998–2018 using advances in satellite observations, chemical transport modeling, and ground-based monitoring. Aerosol optical depths (AODs) from advanced satellite products including finer resolution, increased global coverage, and improved long-term stability are combined and related to surface PM2.5 concentrations using geophysical relationships between surface PM2.5 and AOD simulated by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model with updated algorithms. The resultant annual mean geophysical PM2.5 estimates are highly consistent with globally distributed ground monitors (R2 = 0.81; slope = 0.90). Geographically weighted regression is applied to the geophysical PM2.5 estimates to predict and account for the residual bias with PM2.5 monitors, yielding even higher cross validated agreement (R2 = 0.90–0.92; slope = 0.90–0.97) with ground monitors and improved agreement compared to all earlier global estimates. The consistent long-term satellite AOD and simulation enable trend assessment over a 21 year period, identifying significant trends for eastern North America (−0.28 ± 0.03 μg/m3/yr), Europe (−0.15 ± 0.03 μg/m3/yr), India (1.13 ± 0.15 μg/m3/yr), and globally (0.04 ± 0.02 μg/m3/yr). The positive trend (2.44 ± 0.44 μg/m3/yr) for India over 2005–2013 and the negative trend (−3.37 ± 0.38 μg/m3/yr) for China over 2011–2018 are remarkable, with implications for the health of billions of people.

Melanie S. Hammer↗
NASA NTRS2020

SNPP VIIRS RSB on-orbit radiometric calibration algorithms Version 2.0 and the performances. Part II: The performances

In Part I (Lei et. al, submitted to J. of Appl. Rem. Sens.),we gave detailed reviews of the algorithms Version 2.0 used for the on-orbit radiometric calibration of the reflective solar bands (RSBs) of the first Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite instrument. These algorithms improve the accuracy of the measured on-orbit change factor of the solar diffuser bidirectional reflectance distribution function, the H-factor, and reveal that the H-factor is angle dependent. With the help of lunar observations and the improved H-factor, the algorithms give more accurate values for the RSB detector on-orbit F-factor changes (F-factor is a correction factor to the initially retrieved scene spectral radiance). In this paper we review the RSB radiometric calibration performances. We show the H-factor temporal trend, the estimated uncertainty of the retrieved H-factor, and the F-factor temporal trend. Additionally we show the detector signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), the estimated uncertainty of the top-of-the-atmosphere solar spectral reflectance, the reflectance temporal trend for the Libya 4 desert, and the differences in the reflectances among the SNPP and the NOAA-20 VIIRS, and the Aqua MODIS. Our results show that although the SNRs trend downwards, they exceed the requirements by large margins. The reflectances from the Libya 4 desert show that the SNPP VIIRS’ reflectance is higher than those of the Aqua MODIS and the NOAA-20 VIIRS.

on-orbit calibration↗
NASA NTRS2020

SNPP VIIRS RSB on-orbit radiometric calibration algorithms Version 2.0 and the performances. Part II: The performances

In Part I (Lei et. al, submitted to J. of Appl. Rem. Sens.),we gave detailed reviews of the algorithms Version 2.0 used for the on-orbit radiometric calibration of the reflective solar bands (RSBs) of the first Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite instrument. These algorithms improve the accuracy of the measured on-orbit change factor of the solar diffuser bidirectional reflectance distribution function, the H-factor, and reveal that the H-factor is angle dependent. With the help of lunar observations and the improved H-factor, the algorithms give more accurate values for the RSB detector on-orbit F-factor changes (F-factor is a correction factor to the initially retrieved scene spectral radiance). In this paper we review the RSB radiometric calibration performances. We show the H-factor temporal trend, the estimated uncertainty of the retrieved H-factor, and the F-factor temporal trend. Additionally we show the detector signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), the estimated uncertainty of the top-of-the-atmosphere solar spectral reflectance, the reflectance temporal trend for the Libya 4 desert, and the differences in the reflectances among the SNPP and the NOAA-20 VIIRS, and the Aqua MODIS. Our results show that although the SNRs trend downwards, they exceed the requirements by large margins. The reflectances from the Libya 4 desert show that the SNPP VIIRS’ reflectance is higher than those of the Aqua MODIS and the NOAA-20 VIIRS

Ning Lei↗
NASA NTRS2005

Optimal Estimation of Clock Values and Trends from Finite Data

We show how to solve two problems of optimal linear estimation from a finite set of phase data. Clock noise is modeled as a stochastic process with stationary dth increments. The covariance properties of such a process are contained in the generalized autocovariance function (GACV). We set up two principles for optimal estimation: with the help of the GACV, these principles lead to a set of linear equations for the regression coefficients and some auxiliary parameters. The mean square errors of the estimators are easily calculated. The method can be used to check the results of other methods and to find good suboptimal estimators based on a small subset of the available data.

stationary increments↗
NASA NTRS1992

Subsonic flight test evaluation of a propulsion system parameter estimation process for the F100 engine

An adaptive-performance-seeking control system which optimizes the quasi-steady-state performance of the F-15 propulsion system is discussed. This paper presents flight- and ground-test evaluations of the propulsion system parameter-estimation process used by the performance seeking control system. The estimator consists of a compact propulsion system model and an extended Kalman filter. The extended Kalman filter estimates five engine component deviation parameters from measured inputs. The compact model uses measurements and Kalman-filter estimates as inputs to predict unmeasured propulsion parameters such as net propulsive force and fan stall margin. The ability to track trends and estimate absolute values of propulsion system parameters was demonstrated. For example, thrust stand results show a good correlation especially in trends between the performance seeking control estimated and measured thrust.

Orme, John S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Subsonic flight test evaluation of a propulsion system parameter estimation process for the F100 engine

Integrated engine-airframe optimal control technology may significantly improve aircraft performance. This technology requires a reliable and accurate parameter estimator to predict unmeasured variables. To develop this technology base, NASA Dryden Flight Research Facility (Edwards, CA), McDonnell Aircraft Company (St. Louis, MO), and Pratt & Whitney (West Palm Beach, FL) have developed and flight-tested an adaptive performance seeking control system which optimizes the quasi-steady-state performance of the F-15 propulsion system. This paper presents flight and ground test evaluations of the propulsion system parameter estimation process used by the performance seeking control system. The estimator consists of a compact propulsion system model and an extended Kalman filter. The extended Laman filter estimates five engine component deviation parameters from measured inputs. The compact model uses measurements and Kalman-filter estimates as inputs to predict unmeasured propulsion parameters such as net propulsive force and fan stall margin. The ability to track trends and estimate absolute values of propulsion system parameters was demonstrated. For example, thrust stand results show a good correlation, especially in trends, between the performance seeking control estimated and measured thrust.

Orme, John S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

20 Years of ClO Measurements in the Antarctic Lower Stratosphere

We present 20 years (1996-2015) of austral springtime measurements of chlorine monoxide (ClO) over Antarctica from the Chlorine Oxide Experiment (ChlOEl) ground-based millimeter wave spectrometer at Scott Base, Antarctica, as well 12 years (2004-2015) of ClO measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). From August onwards we observe a strong increase in lower stratospheric ClO, with a peak column amount usually occurring in early September. From mid-September onwards we observe a strong decrease in ClO. In order to study interannual differences, we focus on a 3-week period from 28 August to 17 September for each year and compare the average column ClO anomalies. These column ClO anomalies are shown to be highly correlated with the average ozone mass deficit for September and October of each year. We also show that anomalies in column ClO are strongly anti-correlated with 30 hPa temperature anomalies, both on a daily and an interannual timescale. Making use of this anti-correlation we calculate the linear dependence of the interannual variations in column C1O on interannual variations in temperature. By making use of this relationship, we can better estimate the underlying trend in the total chlorine (Cl(sub y) = HCl + ClONO2 + HOCl + 2 x Cl2 + 2 x Cl2+ ClO + Cl). The resultant trends in Cl(sub y), which determine the long-term trend in ClO, are estimated to be -0.5 +/-0.2, -1.40.9, and -0.60.4% per year, for zonal MLS, Scott Base MLS (both 2004-2015), and ChlOE (1996-2015) respectively. These trends are within 1sigma of trends in stratospheric Cl(sub y) previously found at other latitudes. The decrease in ClO is consistent with the trend expected from regulations enacted under the Montreal Protocol.

temperature anomalies↗