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DOE OSTI2025

A mixed-integer PDE-constrained optimization formulation for constructing electromagnetic cloaks with multiple materials

We study the design of an electromagnetic cloak from multiple materials with an additional constraint on the mass of the cloak. Our problem is an example of a topology optimization problem, and we formulate this problem as a mixed-integer partial-differential equation constrained optimization (MIPDECO) problem, where Maxwell’s equation models the propagation of the wave through the cloak and surrounding medium. We use binary variables to model the assignment of the different materials, and their relevant properties (permittivity and density). The mass constraint adds a nontrivial constraint to this problem. We propose a two-phase strategy to solve this problem. In the first phase, we solve a continuous relaxation, and then propose a new variant of the feasibility pump that exploits the structure of the PDE to obtain an initial integral solution candidate. In the second phase, we use a trust-region approach to improve this incumbent. We also consider a continuation or mesh-sequencing approach to find better solutions faster on consecutively finer meshes. We present detailed numerical results to illustrate the effectiveness of our approaches for constructing multi-material cloaks with a mass constraint.

Calculus of Variations and Optimization↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enabling BWR fuel rod analysis in the BISON fuel performance code

Nuclear fuel vendors around the world are pursuing approaches to sustain the existing nuclear reactor fleet consisting primarily of pressurized-water reactors (PWRs) and boiling-water reactors (BWRs). To support the industry's efforts, advanced modeling and simulation tools need to be capable of analyzing both legacy reactor concepts. BWR fuel rods are significantly different than those used in PWRs, which can affect fuel performance analysis. BWR fuel rods include: (1) an extensive use of gadolinia dopant as a burnable absorber, (2) an axial variation in fuel enrichment and gadolinia content, (3) the inclusion of a liner on the inner cladding surface to mitigate the impact of pellet-clad mechanical interaction (which impacts hydrogen and hydride distribution), (4) a lower initial fill gas pressure, (5) bottom-entry control rods, and (6) a lower coolant pressure that results in the two-phase flow boiling phenomenon. Although the primary focus of BISON has been in the area of PWR and advanced reactor fuel analyses, this paper presents the developments in BISON to support BWR fuel performance analysis. An overview of the models that account for the effects of gadolinia is highlighted. Internal mesh generation capabilities to include a liner is presented. Normal operating and transient (reactivity insertion accident) demonstration problems are presented to illustrate the impact of gadolinia, the hydrogen and hydride evolution due to the presence of the liner, and BISON's ability to simulate axially varying enrichments and dopant concentration. Bottom-entry control effects are captured by the axial power peaking factors present in the demonstration cases. Comparisons to integral experiments from the Halden IFA-681 experiments are discussed as initial validation. Reasonable comparisons are obtained for fuel centerline temperature and rod internal pressure as a function of time. In conclusion, simulations of additional experiments containing Gd 2 O 3 -bearing fuel are necessary to completely validate the code for BWR applications.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Two-phase flow numerical analysis of electrode geometry for alkaline water electrolyzers

Hydrogen is a promising component of a future energy-secure and efficient economy, but its competitiveness depends on reducing production costs. One strategy is to operate alkaline water electrolyzers at higher current densities to increase output. However, this intensifies performance losses due to gas bubble accumulation, which blocks transport pathways and deactivates electrochemically active surfaces. Enhancing bubble evacuation through electrode design is therefore essential. Previous studies have explored various approaches — such as modifying surface morphology, applying sonication or pressure modulation, and introducing surfactants — but these efforts have addressed a limited range of conditions due to the complexity of two-phase flow and electrode geometries. Experiments have also largely been focused on either cell level improvements, which lack the information necessary to isolate each contributing factor, or on modified geometries that are not relevant to practical cell operation. From a modeling perspective, conventional Eulerian multiphase models do not track the complex gas–liquid interfacial dynamics and often neglect surface tension and contact angle effects, reducing their predictive accuracy. To provide insights on the effects of different electrode geometries on the performance of alklaine water electrolyzers this work employs an immersed boundary volume-of-fluid method to simulate bubble behavior in 3D porous electrodes. Multiple base electrode geometries, typically used in practice, with varying porosity are evaluated under a constant surface gas generation rate. Simulation data is analyzed to quantify electrode gas coverage, bubble size dynamics and other relevant metrics. Results show that porosity strongly influences bubble accumulation on electrode surfaces, with higher porosity reducing gas coverage, and its not strictly dependent on the electrode geometry. However, the electrode’s base geometry significantly affects gas accumulation at the separator gap, independent of porosity. A foam electrode geometry resulted in the lowest gas coverage of all electrodes with a median volumetric gas coverage of 11%, but at the cost of a 70% reduction in active area compared with the largest surface area electrode, while gyroid electrodes showed the best trade-off between gas coverage, particularly at the separator surface, and electrochemically active area. In conclusion, the results highlight the need for holistic electrode design strategies.

Alkaline↗

DOE OSTI2026

Alchemy: A Model-Based Approach for 2D to 3D Autonomous Nuclear System Design

Engineering design of nuclear power plant (NPP) piping and equipment systems frequently bypasses crucial 2D system planning, instead moving straight to 3D modeling. This often leads to designs that exceed building envelope constraints, forcing expensive and time-consuming redesigns. When 2D modeling is employed, it typically involves labor-intensive manual workflows that convert 2D drawings into 3D models, resulting in inefficiencies and errors across design iterations. These workflows further suffer from poor software interoperability and dependence on proprietary software ecosystems, thereby contributing to schedule delays and cost overruns. This paper presents Alchemy, an autonomous framework that transforms 2D system definitions into Industry Foundation Classes (IFC)-compliant 3D building information models (BIMs) for expediting nuclear facility design at the conceptual preliminary phase. Using a model-based approach, the framework treats the 2D system diagram as the central reference model employed to automatically generate all subsequent outputs, ensuring consistency between the system definition and the resulting physical design. A web-based interface enables engineers to define hierarchical system topologies including associated equipment, geometric properties, and connectivity requirements. A two-phase equipment layout optimization algorithm automatically computes collision-free spatial configurations within predefined building envelopes. An artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted pipe routing module then generates orthogonal, collision-free routing paths, allowing the user to select either an A* search-based method or an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO)-based method. All outputs are authored natively in IFC format, relying on open-source technologies and standardized formats in order to ensure extensibility and eliminate proprietary software dependencies. The proposed framework is validated on two representative pressurized-water reactor (PWR)-based case studies, for which it autonomously generates IFC-compliant 3D models in minutes, drastically reducing workflows that typically require hours of manual effort. The generated model demonstrates topologically correct equipment placement, physically plausible spatial relationships, and collision-free pipe routing consistent with known PWR loop configurations. This work represents a foundational step toward digital engineering for nuclear facility preliminary design, with future ongoing development targeting design code compliance and expanded system complexity.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Flow Boiling Pressure Drop Characteristics of Next-generation Refrigerants in a Micro‑fin Copper Tube

This paper presents experimental frictional pressure-drop data for flow boiling of R-410A, R-134a, and next-generation alternatives R-454C, R-455A, R-1234yf, and R-1234ze(E) in a horizontal micro-fin copper tube. Tests were conducted over a range of mass fluxes and evaporation temperatures to characterize refrigerant-dependent two-phase pressure-drop behavior. The results show that frictional pressure gradient increased with mass flux and vapor quality and generally increased as evaporation temperature decreased, with liquid viscosity strongly affecting the observed trends. Among the evaluated correlations, the Goto et al. (2001) model gave the best overall agreement with the measurements before optimization. Further optimization of the Kuo and Wang (1996) and Goto et al. (2001) models reduced the overall mean absolute deviation to below 15%, with the optimized Goto (2001) model providing the most consistent predictions across all six refrigerants. The results support improved pressure-drop prediction and evaporator design for next-generation refrigerants in micro-fin tubes.

Hu, Yifeng [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242875185)↗

DOE OSTI2025

A compartmentalized model of multiphase chemical kinetics

There are significant challenges in predicting multiphase chemical kinetics due to the complex coupling of reaction and mass transport across a phase boundary (i.e., interface). Here, we describe a framework for predicting multiphase kinetics that embeds the elementary kinetic steps of reaction, solvation, and diffusion into a coarse grain spatial description of two phases. The model is constructed to bridge the short-timescale interfacial dynamics observed in molecular simulations with the longer timescales observed in kinetic experiments. A simple set of governing differential equations is derived, which, when solved numerically or analytically, yield accurate predictions of multiphase kinetics in microdroplets. Although the equations are formulated for gas-liquid reactions, the underlying conceptual framework is general and can be applied to transformations in other two-phase systems (solid-liquid, liquid-liquid, etc.).

Chemical kinetics and dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Three-Dimensional Pore Networks in Miocene Stevens Sandstone of California: Implications for CO 2 Geologic Storage

The Miocene Stevens Sandstone in the San Joaquin Basin of California is increasingly recognized as a promising candidate for CO 2 geological storage due to the enormous storage capacity, proven sealing, and existing infrastructure. In this study, computed microtomography imaging and pore network modeling were employed to investigate the influence of pore geometry and wettability on the CO 2 injectivity and residual trapping. Image analysis revealed that a significant fraction of the cement and matrix consists of microporous regions. The microporosity can substantially increase the overall pore space, yet its contribution to permeability remains modest, particularly in samples with low permeability. The intrinsic heterogeneity of turbidite reservoirs further complicates the reservoir properties among different layers. Two-phase flow simulations under varying wettability conditions (water-wet, weak water-wet, and neutral-wet) demonstrated that the CO 2 injection is predominantly controlled by macropores. CO 2 invades microporous regions only after these larger pores are filled. The presence of microporosity leads to a decrease in both initial and residual CO 2 saturations, with the magnitude of the reduction being influenced by wettability. Neutral-wet scenarios exhibit higher CO 2 mobility and thus lower residual trapping than water-wet scenarios. The results imply that heterogeneity in pore geometry and cement distribution across different layers can result in stratified CO 2 flow pathways, complicating efforts to predict injection performance. Overall, the Stevens Sandstone shows considerable promise for CO 2 geologic storage, but effective implementation will require detailed characterization of the pore structure as well as the integration of reactive fluid flow to account for potential mineral dissolution and fines migration.

fluids↗

DOE OSTI2025

Next Generation Heat Transfer Fluids for Two-Phase Immersion Cooling of Data Centers

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of next generation dielectric fluids in a Two-Phase Immersion Cooling (2PIC) system, which was designed for use in data centers. Hence, this report contains the performance evaluations of a new developmental dielectric fluid, Opteon™ 2P50, in a commercially available small-scale 2PIC system under typical and off-design range of operating conditions. Accordingly, ambient temperature and thermal loads were varied to simulate different ambient conditions. Additionally, this research report describes the development of a semi-empirical lumped model to predict the energy efficiency of the 2PIC system using Opteon™ 2P50 across a wide range of conditions. The model aims to offer a comprehensive understanding of the system’s efficiency and potential improvements. The outcomes of this study are expected to contribute to the adoption of sustainable 2PIC cooling technologies in data centers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Resource-Adaptive Federated Text Generation with Differential Privacy

In cross-silo federated learning (FL), sensitive text datasets remain confined to local organizations due to privacy regulations, making repeated training for each downstream task both communication-intensive and privacy-demanding. A promising alternative is to generate differentially private (DP) synthetic datasets that approximate the global distribution and can be reused across tasks. However, pretrained large language models (LLMs) often fail under domain shift, and federated finetuning is hindered by computational heterogeneity: only resource-rich clients can update the model, while weaker clients are excluded, amplifying data skew and the adverse effects of DP noise. We propose a flexible participation framework that adapts to client capacities. Strong clients perform DP federated finetuning, while weak clients contribute through a lightweight DP voting mechanism that refines synthetic text. To ensure the synthetic data mirrors the global dataset, we apply control codes (e.g., labels, topics, metadata) that represent each client’s data proportions and constrain voting to semantically coherent subsets. This two-phase approach requires only a single round of communication for weak clients and integrates contributions from all participants. Experiments show that our framework improves distribution alignment and downstream robustness under DP and heterogeneity.

Wang, Jiayi [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Fuel-to-Coolant Heat Transfer During Reactivity-Initiated Accidents Using Tightly Coupled Thermal Hydraulics and Fuel Thermomechanics

The reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) is a complex scenario with several tightly interacting physical phenomena. Accurately predicting fuel behavior during these transients is difficult due to limitations in the modeling of fuel-to-coolant heat transfer. Common approaches to simulate RIAs involve standalone calculations using either a fuel performance code or a thermal-hydraulic code. The complex interdependencies of thermal-hydraulic and fuel mechanical behavior suggest that a tight coupling between these codes may provide more accurate predictions of fuel-to-coolant heat transfer and cladding mechanical response. Here, RELAP5-3D and BISON are coupled in this paper to simulate RIAs, and a sensitivity analysis is performed to rank key thermal properties and two-phase heat transfer parameters relevant for fuel-to-coolant heat transfer and cladding failure mechanisms in UO 2 –Zircaloy-4 systems. Gas gap conductance, film boiling heat transfer uncertainty, pulse width, fuel-specific heat capacity, and cladding-specific heat capacity were identified as important parameters. Variations in figures of merit resulting from changes to pulse width and the material thermal properties indicate that time-dependent heat transfer rates are significant for safety-relevant mechanical parameters due to the time dependence of cladding ductility and pellet-cladding mechanical interaction loading. The results suggest that the thermal-hydraulic factors have a nonnegligible influence on the thermomechanical solution and vice versa. Tight coupling of both sets of physics is recommended to improve prediction of fuel behavior during RIAs. Highlights include the following: 1. The RELAP5-3D thermal-hydraulic code and the BISON fuel performance code are tightly coupled for simulation of RIA transients with energy depositions at the Zircaloy-4 cladding failure threshold. 2. Departure from nucleate boiling occurred for all simulated cases. Due to the ductility of fresh fuel, substantial ballooning occurred in most cases. 3. Gas gap conductance, fuel-specific heat capacity, cladding-specific heat capacity, transient pulse width, and film boiling heat transfer were the dominant thermal factors impacting the safety figures of merit at energy depositions.

Critical Heat Flux (CHF)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Carbon Tetrachloride Degradation Results for 200-ZP-1 Operable Unit

Carbon tetrachloride (CT) contamination in the 200-ZP-1 Operable Unit (OU) at the Hanford Site originated from large-volume discharges to the subsurface during plutonium production operations between 1955 and 1973. Contamination migrated through more than 70 meters of unsaturated sediment to reach the underlying unconfined aquifer, where it persists as a large and complex groundwater plume. The 200-ZP-1 OU Record of Decision (ROD) requires that groundwater CT concentrations be reduced to 3.4 µg/L within 125 years. Current groundwater modeling projections estimate that the existing pump-and-treat, even when combined with monitored natural attenuation (specifically hydrolysis), will not achieve this target within the designated timeframe. A fundamental contributor to this shortfall is the extremely slow rate of CT hydrolysis under Hanford aquifer conditions, which has been estimated to have a half-life of 630 years. If faster-acting biotic and abiotic degradation processes are operating within the aquifer, their contribution to CT mass reduction could have a meaningful impact. However, site-specific measurements of these processes and their rates have not previously been performed. This report documents the results of a two-phase laboratory investigation designed to characterize and quantify the capacity of site-specific 200-ZP-1 OU sediments and groundwater to support natural attenuation of CT through biotic and abiotic pathways. In this context, degradation capacity is defined as the intrinsic potential of the subsurface matrix to transform CT under optimized, controlled conditions. System capacity is evaluated in two ways: (1) as rate-limited capacity, which establishes the maximum kinetic velocity of CT transformation and is measured using half-lives and first order rate constants; and (2) as mass limited capacity, which defines the total contaminant mass the batch experimental system can degrade before reactants are exhausted, representing the maximum amount of contaminant the microbial community and reactive mineral phases can transform under the experimental conditions.

abiotic degradation↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Multiscale Approach to Simulate Non‐Isothermal Multiphase Flow in Deformable Porous Materials

Coupled thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical processes in porous materials play important roles in several energy and environmental technologies. The Darcy-Brinkman-Biot (DBB) framework has proven effective in modeling multiphase fluid flow in deformable porous solids across both pore and Darcy scales, including in systems where fractures coexist with a porous matrix. In this study, we extend the DBB framework, originally designed for isothermal conditions, to address non-isothermal problems by incorporating an energy conservation equation. The resulting solver, hybridBiotThermalInterFoam, enables simulations of coupled multiphase fluid flow, heat transfer, and solid deformation in hybrid-scale systems containing both solid-free regions and ductile porous domains. The new solver is validated through comparisons with analytical solutions and, also, against established heat transfer solvers chtMultiRegionFoam and compressibleInterFoam. Further, a series of 2D and 3D case studies, including two-phase heat transfer in solid-free, static, or deformable porous media, highlights the solver's capacity to simulate complex flow dynamics and heat transport in systems involving high mobility ratios, viscous fingering, and fracture propagation. Our results establish the feasibility of incorporating thermal effects in simulations of a wide variety of energy geotechnics and environmental applications, including enhanced hydrocarbon recovery, soil remediation, and enhanced geothermal energy systems.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Multiphysics Code Coupling for Cladding Surface Thermocouples During Two-Phase Heat Transfer from Nuclear Fuel

Transient testing of nuclear fuel involves the evaluation of fuel performance under off-normal and accident conditions and is essential for proving design performance. Instrumentation included in such experiments commonly includes thermocouples attached to the outer surface of the cladding to provide temperature measurements throughout the transient. However, the presence of thermocouples on the cladding surface can alter the local heat transfer characteristics with the surrounding coolant. These localized effects can influence the temperature of the nearby cladding surface and introduce uncertainties in interpreting the thermocouple data. Understanding the impact of thermocouples attached to the outer surface of the cladding is crucial for accurate data interpretation as well as its effect on the thermomechanical behavior of the cladding. This paper presents a novel methodology for simulating the impact of outer cladding thermocouples during transient testing of nuclear fuels. The simulation framework leverages the thermal-hydraulic capabilities of RELAP5-3D coupled to the BISON fuel performance code through the RELAPCouplingApp interface. The methodology is compared against Accident Tolerant Fuel Reactivity Initiated Accident-1-E experiment performed at Idaho National Laboratory. The results reveal approximately 100°C difference between thermocouple-altered temperature and virgin cladding surface. The model overpredicts surface rewet time due to conservative correlations.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Non-dimensional performance and safety parameters for heat pipes

The use of heat pipes in safety-critical systems such as nuclear microreactors dictates the development of generalized, practical, scalable performance and safety parameters. Traditional dimensional metrics, while informative, lack the universality required for comparative analysis across varying designs and operating regimes. Here, this work introduces a comprehensive set of non-dimensional parameters to characterize heat pipe performance and safety, including capillary performance, effective thermal conductivity, response time, exergetic efficiency, allowable temperature gradients, allowable rate of temperature change, priming coefficients, and factor of safety. A reference heat pipe design representative of microreactor applications was analyzed via the developed parameters using both traditional analytical models and Sockeye simulations under transient and steady-state conditions. Sodium, potassium, and water were evaluated as working fluids to demonstrate the applicability of the framework across a broad temperature range. The proposed non-dimensional parameters effectively captured key thermal-hydraulic behaviors and safety concerns, as was demonstrated via Sockeye simulations. This framework supports the development of design optimization strategies, operational protocols, and safety assurance practices for advanced reactor systems and other high-reliability applications.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Theoretical analysis of a refrigerant injection-enhanced air source heat pump with thermal energy storage for extended cold-climate and defrosting operations

This study investigates a conceptual refrigerant injection-enhanced air source heat pump with integrated thermal energy storage (ITES-ASHP) that combines two-phase flash tank injection with phase change material (PCM) thermal energy storage (TES) to extend cold-climate operation and maintain indoor heating during defrost. A steady-state, mode-based thermodynamic cycle model is developed to evaluate heating and defrosting modes with and without refrigerant injection and TES integration over an outdoor temperature range of 8 to −25 °C. The framework is applied to refrigerants R-290, R-454B, R-410 A, and R-32. A parametric study is conducted for an 18-kW system rated for an outdoor temperature of 8 °C, with the compressor frequency scheduled to 150 Hz. The optimal PCM phase-change temperature is identified as 20 °C for R-290, R-454B, and R-410 A, and 15 °C for R-32. At the design condition of −25 °C outdoor temperature, the proposed concept achieves a combined COP of 2.22 for R-290, corresponding to a 60% increase relative to the theoretical single-stage baseline for combined heating and defrosting operation. Safety screening based on compressor discharge temperature (≤ 120 °C) and injection quality (≥ 0.65), together with performance evaluation, indicates that R-290 is the most suitable candidate, followed by R-410 A and R-454B. Under the assumptions and constraints used here, R-32 is found to be less suitable due to excessive discharge temperatures and a higher risk of wet compression.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Determining the extent of potential fugitive fluid migration from geologic carbon storage in hydrocarbon-bearing reservoirs: Insights from one-dimensional numerical modeling

Numerical modeling of Geologic Carbon Sequestration in permeable reservoirs initially containing hydrocarbons is conducted using the multi-phase, multi-component thermohydrologic simulator TOGA (TOUGH Oil, Gas, Aqueous; TOUGH stands for Transport Of Unsaturated Groundwater and Heat), to determine how phase and composition of the original fluids influence the extent of the zone where upward fugitive fluid migration could potentially occur, denoted R f . The area within R f comprises regions of substantially elevated pressure and free-phase CO 2 saturation, where a breach in reservoir sealing capacity would lead to upward fugitive fluid migration. The model examines the conditions within the storage reservoir that could lead to fugitive flow, but does not model the fugitive flow itself. A one-dimensional radial model of the storage reservoir is used, and three initial phase conditions are considered: single-phase aqueous, two-phase gas-aqueous, and three-phase oil-gas-aqueous. Components that may be present are H 2 O, CO 2 , CH 4 , C 4 H 10 , and C 10 H 22 . The most important factors controlling Rf are (1) the initial gas-phase saturation within the reservoir, and (2) the lateral extent of multi-phase initial conditions, particularly CO 2 . The composition of liquid and gas phases has a secondary effect. The impact of reservoir depth, thickness, injection rate, and hydrologic properties are also briefly examined, with thickness (or equivalently injection rate) having the biggest effect. These results can help to understand important trends in potential response of CO 2 -EOR fields being considered for dedicated CO 2 storage.

CO₂ plume migration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Three and Two Phase Rotating Field Inductive Couplers for Wireless Power Transfer with One Phase per Layer Windings

Multiphase inductive wireless charging coils have been proposed recently to improve coupler surface power density, reduce component stress and size, and provide near-constant power delivery to charge mobile electric systems. Several aspects for the fundamental characterization of multiphase coils are explored up to six phases including approximate mutual inductance with size and turn variation, induced voltage, and output power estimation. The relative component stress and size of passive components for resonant operation are compared between the multiphase variants. A combination of an experimentally validated 3D electromagnetic finite element analysis (FEA) and power electronic co-simulations are used to validate the estimated quantities approximated with a mixture of analytical equations and an artificial neural network model for mutual inductance. A novel three-phase transmitter, two-phase receiver coil pair is also proposed for electric vehicle charging to reduce the number of connections and compensation complexity on the vehicle-side with improved power output compared to a two-phase configuration.

Lewis, Donovin D. [University of Kentucky]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Switchgrass ( Panicum Virgatum ) and Miscanthus ( Miscanthus × Giganteus ) Long-Term Yield Patterns Reveal Consistent Productivity Declines

Perennial grasses like switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) and miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus ) are expected to supply a substantial amount of the United States bioeconomy's feedstock demand. However, uncertainties around their long-term yields challenge the viability of their potential and limit their wider adoption. To resolve their long-term yield patterns, we analyzed over 200 plantings of switchgrass and miscanthus across Michigan and Wisconsin, USA, measured over 5–15 years. We found a consistent two-phase long-term yield dynamic; during a yield-building phase , peak yields occurred within 4–5 years after planting, followed by a yield-decline phase in which switchgrass and miscanthus lost 30%–47% and 14%–40% of peak yields, respectively. Among the potential drivers of this dynamic and the yield decline, we found that weather conditions had little impact, as the variation across years was not large enough to drive the observed yield differences. Added nitrogen increased peak yields by 10%–20% and attenuated the yield decline by 20%–50%. However, since fertilized stands still showed a yield decline, other factors became limiting as stands aged. This conserved long-term yield dynamic has direct implications on management. A farm-to-gate economic analysis suggests replanting switchgrass and miscanthus 5 and 9 years following their peak yields maximizes profit over a 30-year time horizon. Results call for further management and breeding strategies to mitigate the yield-decline phase, and for reparameterization of global bioenergy models with carbon capture and storage, which may overestimate yields and the economic and environmental benefits of crops grown for bioenergy feedstocks.

bioenergy↗