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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

MFNets: Multifidelity data-driven networks for Bayesian learning and prediction

This paper presents a multifidelity uncertainty quantification framework called MFNets. We seek to address three existing challenges that arise when experimental and simulation data from different sources are used to enhance statistical estimation and prediction with quantified uncertainty. Specifically, we demonstrate that MFNets can (1) fuse heterogeneous data sources arising from simulations with different parameterizations, e.g simulation models with different uncertain parameters or data sets collected under different environmental conditions; (2) encode known relationships among data sources to reduce data requirements; and (3) improve the robustness of existing multi-fidelity approaches to corrupted data. MFNets construct a network of latent variables (LVs) to facilitate the fusion of data from an ensemble of sources of varying credibility and cost. These LVs are posited as explanatory variables that provide the source of correlation in the observed data. Furthermore, MFNets provide a way to encode prior physical knowledge to enable efficient estimation of statistics and/or construction of surrogates via conditional independence relations on the LVs. We highlight the utility of our framework with a number of theoretical results which assess the quality of the posterior mean as a frequentist estimator and compare it to standard sampling approaches that use single fidelity, multilevel, and control variate Monte Carlo estimators. We also use the proposed framework to derive the Monte Carlo-based control variate estimator entirely from the use of Bayes rule and linear-Gaussian models -- to our knowledge the first such derivation. Finally, we demonstrate the ability to work with different uncertain parameters across different models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Structurally flexible cloud microphysics, observationally constrained at all scales via ML-accelerated Bayesian inference

We discuss the challenge of developing observationally informed parameterizations of microphysics for use at a hierarchy of modeling scales. Our proposed approach is applicable to any domain that suffers from a two-fold parameterization problem, where physical processes are not resolved at the model scale (the first problem), and those processes are uncertain at any scale (the second problem). For such problems, a physical approach facilitates modeling across scales, as well as systematic observational inference accelerated by machine learning (ML) surrogate models, and quantification of physical uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploration of multifidelity UQ sampling strategies for computer network applications.

Network modeling is a powerful tool to enable rapid analysis of complex systems that can be challenging to study directly using physical testing. Here, two approaches are considered: emulation and simulation. The former runs real software on virtualized hardware, while the latter mimics the behavior of network components and their interactions in software. Although emulation provides an accurate representation of physical networks, this approach alone cannot guarantee the characterization of the system under realistic operative conditions. Operative conditions for physical networks are often characterized by intrinsic variability (payload size, packet latency, etc.) or a lack of precise knowledge regarding the network configuration (bandwidth, delays, etc.); therefore uncertainty quantification (UQ) strategies should be also employed. UQ strategies require multiple evaluations of the system with a number of evaluation instances that roughly increases with the problem dimensionality, i.e., the number of uncertain parameters. It follows that a typical UQ workflow for network modeling based on emulation can easily become unattainable due to its prohibitive computational cost. In this paper, a multifidelity sampling approach is discussed and applied to network modeling problems. The main idea is to optimally fuse information coming from simulations, which are a low-fidelity version of the emulation problem of interest, in order to decrease the estimator variance. By reducing the estimator variance in a sampling approach it is usually possible to obtain more reliable statistics and therefore a more reliable system characterization. Several network problems of increasing difficulty are presented. For each of them, the performance of the multifidelity estimator is compared with respect to the single fidelity counterpart, namely, Monte Carlo sampling. For all the test problems studied in this work, the multifidelity estimator demonstrated an increased efficiency with respect to MC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational Fluid Dynamics-Based Modeling of Methane Flows Around Oil and Gas Equipment

Recent studies estimate that emissions from oil and gas production facilities contribute between 20 and 50% of the total methane ( CH 4 ) emitted in the US; therefore, quantifying and reducing these emissions are crucial for achieving climate goals. Methane quantification depends on both measuring methane concentrations and converting them to emissions through a modeling framework. Currently, simple atmospheric dispersion models are primarily used to quantify emissions and concentrations, but these estimates are highly uncertain when quantifying emissions from complex aerodynamic sources, such as oil and gas facilities. This investigation used a CFD modeling approach, which can account for aerodynamic complexity but has hitherto not been used to model methane concentrations downwind of a methane release of a known rate, and compared it against in situ measurements. High-time-resolution (1 Hz) methane concentration and meteorological data were measured during experiments conducted at the METEC on 21 March and 11 July 2024. The METEC site configuration, measured wind data, and controlled emission rates were used as input for the CONVERGE CFD model to model downwind CH 4 concentration. The modeling was carried out between 20 and 70 m, from two different points of release in two separate controlled-release experiments, one from a separator and another from a wellhead. In these experiments, we found that the CFD model could predict the CH 4 concentrations downwind of the release to a good degree. The model was evaluated on multiple metrics to assess its performance in estimating methane concentrations at typical fence line distances (∼30 m). These results help us to understand external flows and the ability of CFD models to predict downwind concentrations in aerodynamically complex environments.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the Atmospheric Mn Cycle and Its Impact on Terrestrial Biogeochemistry

Abstract The role of manganese (Mn) in ecosystem carbon (C) biogeochemical cycling is gaining increasing attention. While soil Mn is mainly derived from bedrock, atmospheric deposition could be a major source of Mn to surface soils, with implications for soil C cycling. However, quantification of the atmospheric Mn cycle, which comprises emissions from natural (desert dust, sea salts, volcanoes, primary biogenic particles, and wildfires) and anthropogenic sources (e.g., industrialization and land‐use change due to agriculture), transport, and deposition, remains uncertain. Here, we use compiled emission data sets for each identified source to model and quantify the atmospheric Mn cycle by combining an atmospheric model and in situ atmospheric concentration measurements. We estimated global emissions of atmospheric Mn in aerosols (<10 μm in aerodynamic diameter) to be 1,400 Gg Mn year −1 . Approximately 31% of the emissions come from anthropogenic sources. Deposition of the anthropogenic Mn shortened Mn “pseudo” turnover times in 1‐m‐thick surface soils (ranging from 1,000 to over 10,000,000 years) by 1–2 orders of magnitude in industrialized regions. Such anthropogenic Mn inputs boosted the Mn‐to‐N ratio of the atmospheric deposition in non‐desert dominated regions (between 5 × 10 −5 and 0.02) across industrialized areas, but that was still lower than soil Mn‐to‐N ratio by 1–3 orders of magnitude. Correlation analysis revealed a negative relationship between Mn deposition and topsoil C density across temperate and (sub)tropical forests, consisting with atmospheric Mn deposition enhancing carbon respiration as seen in in situ biogeochemical studies.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Generalized Copula-Polynomial Chaos Expansion for Probabilistic Power Flow Considering Nonlinear Correlations of PV Injections

This paper develops a generalized Copula-polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) framework for power system probabilistic power flow that can handle both linear and nonlinear correlations of uncertain power injections, such as wind and PVs. A data-driven Copula statistical model is used to capture the correlations of uncertain power injections. This allows us to resort to the Rosenblatt transformation to transform correlated variables into independent ones while preserving the dependence structure. This paves the way of leveraging the PCE for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification of power flow results, i.e., achieving the probabilistic distributions of power flows. Simulations carried out on the IEEE 57-bus system show that the proposed framework can get much more accurate results than other alternatives with different linear and nonlinear power injection correlations.

copula↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Quantification of Capacitor Switching Transient Location using Machine Learning

Identification of capacitor switching transient location provides valuable insight into the state of the associated equipment. Machine learning (ML) models, and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in particular, have demonstrated remarkable performance in signal location. However, ML models are data driven whose predictions are affected by noise in data and may also suffer from large extrapolation errors when applied to new conditions. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is necessary to ensure model trustworthiness and avoid overconfident predictions in extrapolation. Here, in this work, we propose a novel UQ method, called PI3NN, to quantify prediction uncertainty of ML models and integrate the method with CNNs for transient source location. PI3NN calculates Prediction Intervals by training 3 Neural Networks and uses root-finding methods to determine the interval precisely. Additionally, PI3NN can identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data in a nonstationary condition to avoid overconfident prediction. Results indicate that with PI3NN, transient signals are not only correctly identified, but when said signals are subject to corruptions characteristic of an actual power monitoring system (e.g. non-ideal sensors), the model recognizes when it is uncertain about its predictions, effectively letting the user know when to accept or discard the results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

MITgcm-AD v2: Open source tangent linear and adjoint modeling framework for the oceans and atmosphere enabled by the Automatic Differentiation tool Tapenade

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) is widely used by the climate science community to simulate planetary atmosphere and ocean circulations. A defining feature of the MITgcm is that it has been developed to be compatible with an algorithmic differentiation (AD) tool, TAF, enabling the generation of tangent-linear and adjoint models. These provide gradient information which enables dynamics-based sensitivity and attribution studies, state and parameter estimation, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Importantly, gradient information is essential for computing comprehensive sensitivities and performing efficient large-scale data assimilation, ensuring that observations collected from satellites and in-situ measuring instruments can be effectively used to optimize a large uncertain control space. As a result, the MITgcm forms the dynamical core of a key data assimilation product employed by the physical oceanography research community: Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) state estimate. Although MITgcm and ECCO are used extensively within the research community, the AD tool TAF is proprietary and hence inaccessible to a large proportion of these users. The new version 2 (MITgcm-AD v2) framework introduced here is based on the source-to-source AD tool Tapenade, which has recently been open-sourced. Another feature of Tapenade is that it stores required variables by default (instead of recomputing them) which simplifies the implementation of efficient, AD-compatible code. The framework has been integrated with the MITgcm model’s main branch and is now freely available.

Adjoints↗
DOE OSTI2019

Probabilistic reliability assessment and case studies for predicted energy savings in residential buildings

This study aims to (1) investigate the key influential parameters (KIPs) in estimating the uncertainty of energy savings using a residential building energy simulation model and (2) perform uncertainty quantification for energy savings for several different scenarios. The proposed methodology was successfully applied to the calculation of uncertainties associated with residential energy retrofits using two test houses designed for pre- and post-retrofit cases. Uncertainties were determined using basic parameters that might be supplied to an energy model and then reevaluated based on an audit of the KIPs identified, resulting in substantially reduced uncertainty. Of four different scenarios, the most uncertain scenario estimated the annual energy savings from the retrofit would be between 18% and 51% at a 95% confidence level, and the least uncertain scenario estimated the annual savings would be between 26% and 40% at a 95% confidence level. The actual measured annual savings from the two test houses was 28%, which shows an agreement with the uncertainty analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment for intermodal freight transportation

Intermodal freight optimization models support cost-effective, low-emission, and timely goods movement by coordinating trucks, rail, and barges. These models determine optimal flows, routing, and modal switches while respecting infrastructure and operational constraints. However, their real-world utility is often undermined by pervasive uncertainties-such as fluctuating transportation costs and emissions, variable terminal capacities, and uncertain freight demand-that distort key performance outcomes, including total system cost, carbon footprint, and transit time reliability. This study presents a structured framework for quantifying uncertainty in intermodal freight transportation (IFT) optimization. The framework evaluates how input uncertainty affects system performance and reliability, a critical need for ensuring that model-based decisions remain robust under real-world variability, especially amid volatile fuel prices, shifting demand, and growing disruptions. It integrates three complementary methods: (1) Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis to identify influential parameters affecting cost, emissions, and transit time, (2) Monte Carlo-based capacity perturbation analysis to assess robustness under probabilistic facility disruptions, and (3) Monte Carlo filtering with Bayesian inference to detect threshold-based performance vulnerabilities. The results highlight diesel truck unit cost as the dominant driver of variability. To improve system resilience, planners should prioritize uncertainty in fuel-related parameters when designing intermodal strategies.

Intermodal freight transportation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cyber risk assessment and investment optimization using game theory and ML-based anomaly detection and mitigation for wide-area control in smart grids

The electric power grid is increasingly becoming susceptible to cyber attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in the smart grid control, information, and physical layers. Successful cyber attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the social and economic well-being of any nation all over the globe. It has, thus, become imperative to secure the smart grid against such adversarial actions to ensure stable, secure, and reliable operation of the grid. The existing research and industry practices prove to be inadequate in terms of providing pragmatic and effective defense methodologies and measures for long-term cybersecurity planning and real-time cybersecurity for grid operation. For example, existing works lack models that incorporate uncertain behavior of cyber-attackers and pragmatic defense measures for cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity investment optimization which often provide unreliable and strictly qualitative solutions to these problems. At the same time, with the growing number of cyber incidents in the grid, there still exists a need to develop attack-resilient algorithms for wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) applications like the wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for Flexible AC Transmissions Systems (FACTS) that lack in scalable and feasible solutions from the cybersecurity perspective. This dissertation proposes novel models and methodologies for: (1) Cybersecurity planning, and (2) Cybersecurity for system operation. The cybersecurity planning is achieved through cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity resource investment optimization for long-term cybersecurity of the grid using game theory and attack-defense trees. Cybersecurity for system operation consists of development of cyber anomaly detection and mitigation algorithms for flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controller-based wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) using machine learning (ML), and software defined networking-based moving target defense network routing for achieving real-time cyber-physical security for grid operations. This is followed by hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) implementation and evaluation of these attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies showcasing their feasibility in a close to real-world environment. For cybersecurity planning, a novel approach involving a combination of game theory and attack defense trees (ADT) for optimal cybersecurity resource allocation in the smart grid is proposed. This methodology involves modeling of the cyber-physical smart grid substations as ADTs, defining attacker costs, defense costs, and attack probabilities for attack access points. Using game theoretical formulation, optimal defense strategies for the defender of the system to invest cybersecurity resources in the grid are obtained. Additionally, a game-theoretic framework is developed for quantitative cyber-physical risk assessment of the grid under a dynamically changing cyber threat space and uncertain behavior of cyber attackers which is further used to optimize investments in the smart grid's cybersecurity resources. The attacker, defender, and the smart grid system are modeled while incorporating attacker-stochasticity and federal guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity. This allows quantification of threat, vulnerabilities, and attack impact of the grid for quantitative risk assessment. The defender's budget to invest in the security resources in the grid is optimized based on the strategies leading to minimum system risk. The evaluation of the proposed solutions highlight the feasibility for practical implementation of these methodologies and algorithms in the smart grid, while taking the federal requirements and guidelines for smart grid security into consideration. For achieving cybersecurity for system operation, attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies are developed specifically for FACTS-based WAVCS. Anomaly detection and mitigation in the WAVCS are achieved using algorithms based on machine learning which involves offline training and testing of ML models with CPS datasets incorporating physics-based features that allow accurate distinction between system faults and cyber attacks. For attack prevention, a methodology based on software defined network (SDN)-based moving target defense (MTD) network routing is proposed that enables prevention of Denial of Service (DoS) type attacks on the smart grid communication system. Subsequently, these methodologies and algorithms are implemented and evaluated on an HIL testbed that allows for real-time attack prevention, detection, and mitigation of emulated cyber attacks on the WAVCS in a close to real-world environment. The results show highly accurate and efficient performance of the implemented algorithms and methodologies with the smart grid system operating within the NERC's system operation limits even in the presence of DoS and data integrity cyber attacks. This work opens up future research opportunities in other directions such as (1) Expanding cybersecurity planning methodologies to real-time cyber contingency analysis with different game formulations; and (2) Applying the cybersecurity for system operation algorithms to broader categories of wide-area control applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity uncertainty quantification with models based on dissimilar parameters

Multifidelity uncertainty quantification (MF UQ) sampling approaches have been shown to significantly reduce the variance of statistical estimators while preserving the bias of the highest-fidelity model, provided that the low-fidelity models are well correlated. However, maintaining a high level of correlation can be challenging, especially when models depend on different input uncertain parameters, which drastically reduces the correlation. Existing MF UQ approaches do not adequately address this issue. In this work, we propose a new sampling strategy that exploits a shared space to improve the correlation among models with dissimilar parameterization. We achieve this by transforming the original coordinates onto an auxiliary manifold using the adaptive basis (AB) method (Tipireddy and Ghanem, 2014). The AB method has two main benefits: (1) it provides an effective tool to identify the low-dimensional manifold on which each model can be represented, and (2) it enables easy transformation of polynomial chaos representations from high- to low-dimensional spaces. This latter feature is used to identify a shared manifold among models without requiring additional evaluations. Here we present two algorithmic flavors of the new estimator to cover different analysis scenarios, including those with legacy and non-legacy high-fidelity (HF) data. We provide numerical results for analytical examples, a direct field acoustic test, and a finite element model of a nuclear fuel assembly. For all examples, we compare the proposed strategy against both single-fidelity and MF estimators based on the original model parameterization.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

An Efficient Bayesian Method for Advancing the Application of Deep Learning in Earth Science

Despite their wide and successful applications, deep learning (DL) models are prone to overfitting for small training datasets, produce a poor predictive performance for uncertain data, and provide point estimations without any indication of the accuracy and credibility. These limitations of the deterministic DL models hinder their effective application in Earth system science where the labelled data are sparse, noisy and incomplete with large uncertainty and where the predictive uncertainty quantification is needed for scientific understanding and policy decision making. Integration of Bayesian inference into DL models adds an estimate of uncertainty and regularization in the predictions. However, traditional Bayesian methods are computationally unaffordable and inflexible for high-dimensional problems, which limits their application to DL systems that typically have millions of model parameters. In this effort, we propose an efficient and general-purpose Bayesian inference method to advance DL model optimization and uncertainty quantification, so as to facilitate the adoption of DL in Earth sciences. In a demonstration, we integrate the proposed Bayesian method with a feedforward neural network (NN) to build a fast-to-evaluate surrogate of the complex Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model for efficient modeling. The formulated Bayesian NN, using a small number of training data, produces an accurate prediction with high credibility, whereas with the same small training size, the deterministic NN cannot yield a reasonable estimation and does not provide confidence information. The proposed Bayesian method is computationally efficient and flexible, capable of integration with diverse network variants such as convolutional NNs and recurrent NNs to advance the application of DL in Earth sciences.

Lu, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward reducing uncertainty quantification costs in DEM models of particulate flow: Testing simple, sensitivity-based, forward uncertainty propagation techniques

The performance of two conceptually-simple uncertainty quantification techniques are tested against the rigorous nested-loop sampling technique of Roy and Oberkampf (Comput Methods Appl Mech Eng, 200: 2131–2144, 2011) (herein called full-sampling) using two very small-scale DEM-based models of particulate flow (one gas-solid flow and one granular flow). The first simplified forward uncertainty propagation technique, reduced-sampling, uses a sensitivity analysis to eliminate uncertain inputs that have little impact on the model output prior to nested-loop sampling. The second technique, boundary-sampling, uses a sensitivity analysis to inform the selection of two bounding cases for each key model output. In conclusion, the uncertainties in the model outputs obtained via the reduced- and boundary-sampling methods agree well with those from full-sampling for both the gas-solid and granular flow models while yielding computational savings of 65–75% (reduced sampling) and 94–97% (boundary sampling).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate and Timely Forecasts of Geologic Carbon Storage using Machine Learning Methods

Carbon capture and storage is one strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. One approach to storing the captured CO2 is to inject it into deep saline aquifers. However, dynamics of the injected CO2 plume is uncertain and the potential for leakage back to the atmosphere must be assessed. Thus, accurate and timely forecasts of CO2 storage via real-time measurements integration becomes very crucial. This study proposes a learning-based, inverse-free prediction method that can accurately and rapidly forecast CO2 movement and distribution with uncertainty quantification based on limited simulation and observation data. The machine learning techniques include dimension reduction, multivariate data analysis, and Bayesian learning. The outcome is expected to provide CO2 storage site operators with an effective tool for real-time decision making.

Lu, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale-Informed Modeling of High Temperature Component Response with Uncertainty Quantification

This report summarizes a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, and Los Alamos National Laboratory to develop and deploy constitutive models targeted at predicting the life of Grade 91 alloy components subjected to high temperature environments typical of those that structural components in advanced nuclear reactors would experience. Two distinct, but complementary constitutive modeling approaches have been taken here. The first employs a phenomenological viscoplastic model for which parameters have been calibrated based on experimental data for a wide range of Grade 91 alloy that has undergone a variety of processing. A Bayesian approach was used to derive distributions of uncertain parameters for this model based on this data set. The second approach is a reduced order model suitable for engineering-scale analysis that is based on the results of a large set of mesoscale simulations. Mesoscale models allow for the microstructure and composition of a particular alloy to be directly taken into account in the computation of the viscoplastic response, but are computationally expensive, which makes it impractical to directly call those models for the material constitutive response in an engineering-scale simulation. The reduced-order representation of the response of the underlying model used here allows for an engineering-scale model to take into account the characteristics of the underlying microstructure, while only incurring a reasonable computational expense. Both of these approaches have different strengths, and are applicable for different parts of the design/analysis process. The phenomenological models can be readily parameterized based on a set of experimental data for a given class of materials and used for scoping calculations. Once a specific material is chosen and adequately characterized, the reduced order models can accurately predict the response of that specific alloy, and because the models are based on predictive models of the underlying microstructure, they can be used to more confidently predict the response under conditions in regions where there is limited experimental data. Both of these models have been integrated in the Grizzly code, which is used here to perform proof-of-concept uncertainty quantification analyses of a simple component under prototypical conditions. The built- in stochastic analysis capabilities in the MOOSE framework that Grizzly is built on are used here to run large sets of simulations for this uncertainty quantification analysis. As would be expected, because the reduced order models are developed for a much more tightly defined alloy, they predict tighter distributions of the time to failure than the phenomenological models, which are calibrated to a broader set of data. Also important is that these simulations demonstrate that a reduced order modeling approach can be successfully deployed to propagate uncertainties from the material scale to practical engineering-scale component simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗