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69 records · Page 3

Electronic structure prediction of medium and high entropy alloys across composition space

We propose machine learning (ML) models to predict the electron density — the fundamental unknown of a material’s ground state — across the composition space of concentrated alloys. From this, other physical properties can be inferred, enabling accelerated exploration. A significant challenge is that the number of descriptors and sampled compositions required for accurate prediction grows rapidly with species. To address this, we employ Bayesian Active Learning (AL), which minimizes training data requirements by leveraging uncertainty quantification capabilities of Bayesian Neural Networks. Compared to the strategic tessellation of the composition space, Bayesian-AL reduces the number of training data points by a factor of 2.5 for ternary (SiGeSn) and 1.7 for quaternary (CrFeCoNi) systems. We also introduce easy-to-optimize, body-attached-frame descriptors, which respect physical symmetries while keeping descriptor-vector size nearly constant as alloy complexity increases. Our ML models demonstrate high accuracy and generalizability in predicting both electron density and energy across composition space.

materials science

Stellar Population Properties in the Stellar Streams around SPRC047

Abstract We have investigated the properties (e.g., age, metallicity) of the stellar populations of a ringlike tidal stellar stream (or streams) around the edge-on galaxy SPRC047 (z= 0.031) using spectral energy distribution (SED) fits to integrated broadband aperture flux densities. We used visual images in six different bands and Spitzer/IRAC 3.6μm data. We have attempted to derive best-fit stellar population parameters (metallicity, age) in three noncontiguous segments of the stream. Due to the very low surface brightness of the stream, we have performed a deconvolution with a Richardson–Lucy–type algorithm of the low spatial resolution 3.6μm IRAC image, thereby reducing the effect of the point-spread function aliasedemissionfrom the bright edge-on central galaxy at the locations of our three stream segments. Our SED fits that used several different star formation (SF) history priors, from an exponentially decaying SF burst to continuous SF, indicate that the age–metallicity–dust degeneracy is not resolved, most likely because of inadequate wavelength coverage and low signal-to-noise ratios of the low surface brightness features. We also discuss how future deep visual–near-infrared observations, combined with absolute flux calibration uncertainties at or below the 1% level, complemented by equally well absolute flux-calibrated observations in ultraviolet and mid-infrared bands, would improve the accuracy of broadband SED fitting results for low surface brightness targets, such as stellar streams around nearby galaxies that are not resolved into stars.

Astronomy & Astrophysics

DEPRECATED AI-Batt-OS (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models - Open Source) [SWR 21-17]

DEPRECATED. This repository was archived by the owner on Jun 30, 2026. It is now read-only. Open source implementation of some of the methods utilized by AI-Batt, a battery lifetime modeling and analysis toolkit provided by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). This software demonstrates the use of bi-level optimization and symbolic regression techniques to semi-autonomously identify algebraic models predicting the capacity fade of lithium-ion batteries during calendar aging. Modeling the degradation of batteries is a complex task, due to the difficulty in separating the time-dependent and time-independent factors impacting cell level degradation, across multiple data series with different numbers of measurements and/or data quality. Bi-level optimization enables model parameters to be optimized to either the entire data set or to individual data series, allowing statistical disambiguation of global behaviors (data series independent) and local behaviors (data series dependent). Symbolic regression is used to automatically search for optimal low-dimesional models predicting the variation of locally optimized parameters versus time-independent experimental variables from millions of possible models, resulting in a more accurate and repeatable model identification process than is possible by a manual search. The provided tools also implement cross-validation and bootstrap resampling schemes, empowering statistical model comparison/selection and quantification of model uncertainties. An example script replicates the results from the manuscript "Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning", submitted to ECS. All code is written in MATLAB. Requires the Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox. Contact Dr. Paul Gasper at Paul.Gasper@nlr.gov for any questions.

Gasper, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL

Constraints on Nuclear Symmetry Energy Parameters

A review is made of constraints on the nuclear symmetry energy parameters arising from nuclear binding energy measurements, theoretical chiral effective field predictions of neutron matter properties, the unitary gas conjecture, and measurements of neutron skin thicknesses and dipole polarizabilities. While most studies have been confined to the parameters 𝑆 𝑉 and L, the important roles played by, and constraints on 𝐾 sym , or, equivalently, the neutron matter incompressibility 𝐾 𝑁 , are discussed. Strong correlations among 𝑆 𝑉 ,𝐿, and 𝐾 𝑁 are found from both nuclear binding energies and neutron matter theory. However, these correlations somewhat differ in the two cases, and those from neutron matter theory have smaller uncertainties. To 68% confidence, it is found from neutron matter theory that 𝑆 𝑉 = 32.0 ± 1.1 MeV, 𝐿 = 51.9 ± 7.9 MeV and 𝐾 𝑁 = 152.2 ± 38.1 MeV. Theoretical predictions for neutron skin thickness and dipole polarizability measurements of the neutron-rich nuclei 48 Ca, 120 Sn, and 208 Pb are compared to recent experimental measurements, most notably the CREX and PREX neutron skin experiments from Jefferson Laboratory. By themselves, PREX I+II measurements of 208 Pb and CREX measurement of 48 Ca suggest 𝐿 = 121 ± 47 MeV and 𝐿 = −5 ± 40 MeV, respectively, to 68% confidence. However, we show that nuclear interactions optimally satisfying both measurements imply 𝐿 = 53 ± 13 MeV, nearly the range suggested by either nuclear mass measurements or neutron matter theory, and is also consistent with nuclear dipole polarizability measurements. This small parameter range implies 𝑅 1.4 = 11.6 ± 1.0 km and Λ 1.4 = 228$^{+148}_{−90}$, which are consistent with NICER X-ray and LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave observations of neutron stars.

neutron skins

Conditional diffusion machine-learning framework for mapping valence electron distribution from convergent beam electron diffraction

Quantitative convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) enables determination of aspherical valence electron distributions through refinement of low-order structure factors, which are highly sensitive to chemical bonding and charge density variations. However, conventional quantitative CBED (QCBED) requires solving a highly nonlinear inverse problem with many coupled parameters, and computationally intensive dynamical diffraction calculations, making it time-consuming and difficult to apply to complex systems. More broadly, reconstructing charge density and orbital electron distribution from diffraction data has long been a central challenge in both x-ray and electron crystallography. Here, in this study, we introduce an artificial-intelligence (AI)-based framework that replaces traditional refinement with a data-driven inverse solver. Using a large synthetic CBED dataset generated by Bloch-wave simulations, we train a conditional diffusion model to directly infer crystal structural parameters and multipole density formalism parameters, and hence valence electron distributions, from CBED patterns alone. By learning from forward simulations across realistic parameter space, the model effectively solves the inverse problem. Compared with direct regression approaches, the diffusion-based framework provides posterior parameter distributions for rigorous uncertainty quantification while preserving quantitative fidelity and reducing analysis time by orders of magnitude. By eliminating the need for external single-crystal x-ray diffraction data and complex nonlinear refinement, this approach enables practical, high-throughput, and in situ quantitative CBED, enabling real-time mapping of valence electron distributions and their correlation with functional responses in quantum and energy materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND

Vanishing dynamic strength measured in a transient high-pressure phase of tin

This work reports two independent experimental estimations of the dynamic strength of the body-centered tetragonal (bct) 𝛾 phase of tin, which occurs at pressures above about 9 GPa and transforms promptly back to the ambient 𝛽 phase upon pressure release. Measuring strength in such a transient high-pressure phase is challenging. One measurement used free-surface Richtmyer-Meshkov instabilities generated with gas gun impact. Another set of measurements used ramp-release loading in a pulsed-power facility. Strength estimations came from comparison to simulations using a comprehensive multiphase modeling framework that includes equation of state, shear moduli, and strength separately for each phase, and treats mixed-phase regions. Both experimental methods found the 𝛾-phase strength to be very low, within experimental uncertainty of zero. The existing literature on other materials, by contrast, almost universally reports higher strength in transient high-pressure phases compared with ambient phases. Recent Molecular-Dynamics simulations on tin in the literature showed almost zero deviatoric strength during a deformation-induced bct → bct transformation in which one of the 𝛾-phase 𝑎 axes “flips” to the 𝑐 axis. This reorientation currently provides the most plausible explanation for the low observed strength in 𝛾-phase tin.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

The 10 September 2025 M w 4.1 Earthquake in Northeastern Utah, United States: An Archetypal Continental Mantle Event

The 10 September 2025 M w 4.1 earthquake in northeastern Utah, United States, had a focal depth 68 km beneath sea level, which is ∼20–25 km greater than estimates of local crustal thickness, making it a rare example of a continental mantle earthquake (CME). The focal depth is well resolved from arrival-time inversion (nearest station ∼13 km away) and moment tensor inversion of regional waveforms. Similar to other CMEs in the Intermountain West, there were no obvious aftershocks or foreshocks, and the waveforms were enriched in high-frequency energy. Spectral modeling gives a stress drop of ∼80 MPa and a radiation efficiency of ∼0.08, albeit with large uncertainties. The high stress drop and low radiation efficiency are consistent with a dissipative source process such as thermal runaway. Also similar to previous Intermountain West CMEs, the event occurred along the boundary of the Archean Wyoming craton, where pressure–temperature conditions favor ductile deformation. We hypothesize that edge-driven or regional-scale mantle convection produces increased strain rates near the craton boundary that make either conventional brittle failure or thermal runaway feasible at relatively high pressure–temperature conditions. High conductivity inferred around the edge of the craton may suggest that fluids also contribute to CME occurrence.

Koper, Keith D. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

A Python Tool for Aqueous Plutonium Nitrate Density Law Input Preprocessing in MCNP6

Here, this work develops a predictive density tool in Python, named Plutonium Nitrate Solutions (PuNS), to reduce bias and uncertainty in nuclear criticality safety calculations for plutonium nitrate systems. The Pitzer method and an empirical method were implemented into the PuNS tool to generate atom densities for use in MCNP6 material cards. These material cards are directly prepared into an MCNP6 input text file and are calculated based on customizable user inputs of plutonium content, nitric acid content, temperature, and plutonium isotope weight percentages. The PuNS tool is validated and verified against the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook experiments and is observed to predict densities within a root mean square error of 0.89% for the Pitzer method and 1.82% for the empirical method. These errors in density lead to up to 1569 pcm difference in MCNP6 calculated k eff for the Pitzer method and up to a 1751 pcm difference for the empirical method when compared to experimental benchmarks. Simultaneous work is also being performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory and the University of New Mexico to create a similar tool for plutonium chloride solutions, named Plutonium Chloride Solution, which aims to provide the accreditation of the chlorine absorption. These capabilities will not only provide more accurate models but also facilitate an improved understanding of solution systems and a potential relaxation in the conservatism of current aqueous plutonium processing criticality safety limits.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA

Conceptual design study of neutron detectors for safeguards measurement of an irradiated pebble

Nuclear material control and accounting (MC&A) of pebble-bed reactors (PBRs) is challenging because a PBR utilizes hundreds of thousands of identical, unmarked pebbles that are continuously recirculated through the core. To develop tools that enable the implementation of international safeguards, especially in the context of MC&A of spent pebbles, we designed and simulated three neutron detection concepts to determine fissile content in individual pebbles: a differential die-away (DDA) detector, a californium interrogation prompt neutron (CIPN) detector, and a passive neutron albedo reactivity (PNAR) detector using Monte Carlo calculations. Burnup calculations were performed on the spent pebbles from the PBMR-400 classic PBR. The varying neutron and gamma source terms, and isotopic compositions in the spent pebbles calculated at various burnup levels were used in the neutron detector models. DDA was found to be sensitive to the number of passes a pebble has had through the core and to the fissile content contained in a spent pebble. Optimization in the DDA design further increased the neutron count rates and thus reduced counting uncertainty. Meanwhile, passive neutron counting using the same detector body could distinguish pebbles with different numbers of passes, but its response was dominated by neutron-emitting actinides and was not sensitive to fissile content. On the other hand, the PNAR technique was not viable for a single pebble but performed reasonably for a 27-pebble array, which suggested potential use for verification measurements of containers filled with 27 or more spent pebbles.

CIPN

The impact of aerosol mixing state on immersion freezing: insights from classical nucleation theory and particle-resolved simulations

Immersion freezing, initiated by ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in supercooled aqueous droplets, plays an important role in the formation of ice crystals within clouds. The efficiency of immersion freezing depends strongly on INP composition and, crucially, on the mixing state – how chemical species are distributed across the particle population. Here, we quantify the impact of aerosol mixing state on immersion freezing using a combined theoretical and particle-resolved modeling approach. We derive analytical expressions for the frozen fraction of internally and externally mixed INP populations based on classical nucleation theory, showing that the frozen fraction is sensitive to whether ice-active species are present in all particles or only in a subset of the population. We introduce a multi-species immersion freezing scheme into the particle-resolved model PartMC, using the water activity-based immersion freezing model (ABIFM) to compute freezing probabilities for mixed-composition particles. To improve computational efficiency, we implement a Binned Tau-Leaping algorithm and demonstrate an order-of-magnitude speedup with minimal accuracy loss. Simulations reproduce the analytical trends in limiting cases and extend the analysis to more general aerosol populations, where mixing state continues to exert a substantial control on frozen fraction. Sensitivity analyses across particle size, species type, and cooling condition reveal that the mixing state effect is most pronounced when small amounts of highly efficient INPs are mixed with less efficient materials. These findings underscore the need to represent aerosol mixing state explicitly in models of heterogeneous ice nucleation to reduce uncertainty in cloud-phase partitioning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Thermal property characterization of phase change materials in building applications: A systematic review of fundamentals, recent progress, and future directions

Phase change materials (PCMs) can reduce building peak loads and enable demand-responsive thermal energy storage (TES), but their deployment depends on reliable measurement and interpretation of thermal properties across laboratory, intermediate, and application scales. Here, this review systematically examines characterization methods, testing protocols, and recent advances for neat PCMs and PCM composites, emphasizing thermal conductivity, enthalpy-related properties (phase change temperature, latent heat, specific heat), and cycling stability. For thermal conductivity, we compare steady-state and transient techniques and note limitations when phase transition and contact resistance affect measurements. For enthalpy–temperature characterization, we discuss differential scanning calorimetry together with intermediate- and bulk-scale methods, including T-history, heat flow meter testing, and three-layer calorimetry (3LC), to generate application-relevant enthalpy–temperature profiles. Cycling stability is organized into four experimental families: thermoelectric–air, fully thermoelectric, water-bath, and in situ chamber approaches, with attention to separating reversible supercooling from true degradation such as phase segregation. We highlight emerging noncontact diagnostics, including infrared thermography and embedded sensing, for spatially resolved validation and multiscale interpretation. Finally, we review the growing use of AI and machine learning for property prediction, inverse characterization from experimental signals, and real-time state estimation in building-integrated TES. Key needs include harmonized protocols, interlaboratory benchmarking, uncertainty reporting, and metadata-rich datasets to accelerate reproducible PCM qualification for grid-flexible buildings.

AI

Preliminary Plan to Inform Testing of a Heat Exchanger Test Article

This report presents a preliminary plan to guide the qualification testing of advanced heat exchanger (HX) components for nuclear-to-industrial heat transfer applications. The objective is to establish a defensible, physics-based methodology that integrates computational modeling, targeted experimentation, and in-service inspection considerations to demonstrate component performance and reliability under representative reactor conditions. The analysis identifies Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) systems as reference configurations in terms of temperature, pressure, and chemical environment. Within these operating envelopes, dominant degradation mechanisms— including creep–fatigue interaction, flow-induced vibration, corrosion, and diffusion-bond deterioration—were evaluated to define test requirements. A comprehensive computationalexperimental framework is proposed to support life prediction and qualification activities. The framework couples high-fidelity structural-mechanics, thermal-hydraulic, and fluid-structure interaction models with accelerated degradation testing to produce a traceable linkage between microstructural evolution, mechanical performance, and remaining useful life (RUL). The approach adheres to established Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) standards (ASME V&V 10/20; NUREG-2152) and incorporates a digital-twin architecture for continuous model refinement through data assimilation. The plan further outlines testing methodologies, including pre-test analyses, test-loop design parameters, and sensor placement strategies that maximize information yield while maintaining mechanistic fidelity. Complementary sections describe in-service inspection (ISI), on-line monitoring (OLM), and structural-health-monitoring (SHM) techniques applicable to compact HX geometries typical of advanced reactors. Collectively, these activities establish the technical foundation for demonstrating 40-60-year equivalent service life of advanced heat exchangers in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Reactor and Integrated Energy Systems programs. The forthcoming phase will execute the defined pre-test analyses, initiate hardware fabrication, and implement the integrated testing campaign to validate the proposed qualification methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

SILICON CARBIDE THERMOMETRY USING RAMAN SPECTROSCOPY ON IRRADIATED TRISO PARTICLES

Silicon carbide (SiC) passive thermometry has emerged as a promising post-irradiation examination (PIE) technique for estimating irradiation temperature near the end of irradiation. While dilatometry techniques have been traditionally used to analyze prismatic samples after irradiation, Raman spectroscopy has recently been shown to provide comparable results by analyzing Raman-active phonon modes. In this work, Raman spectroscopy has been applied to the SiC layer of cross-sectioned irradiation tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles from the AGR-5/6/7 experiment to evaluate the feasibility of particle-scale passive thermometry. Two-dimensional Raman mapping was used to measure the position of the SiC longitudinal optical (LO) phonon, which was then converted to an apparent irradiation temperature using a previously established empirical correlation. Particles from AGR-5/6/7 Compacts 2-2-1 and 5-1-3 were selected as their calculated time-averaged, volume-averaged (TAVA) temperatures (828°C and 706°C, respectively) fall within the range of the sensitivity of the experimental approach. The use of SiC thermometry was anticipated to confirm or highlight potential deviations from calculated end-of-life TAVA temperature across compacts. Four particles from Compact 2-2-1 and two particles from Compact 5-1-3 were selected based on 110mAg inventory (either some measurable activity or below the minimum detection limit) which is commonly used as an indicator of in-pile temperature variation of particles within the same compact. Across every particle selected it was determined that the average LO peak position was located around 968 cm-1 to 969 cm-1. Using the previously determined empirical correlation, this corresponds to an irradiation temperature around 950°C to 966°C, which does not align with the reported TAVA temperature values. This discrepancy in apparent irradiation temperatures likely reflects a combination of uncertainties in the calculated particle temperatures and differences in irradiation history between the present specimens and those used to establish the empirical Raman calibration such as neutron flux (damage rate) and SiC microstructure (as fabricated and irradiated).

Vawdrey, Josh [ORNL]

The Role of Nuclear Data Sensitivities in Prompt α-Eigenvalue Predictions of Delayed Critical Benchmarks

Alpha (α) eigenvalues, which describe the logarithmic time derivative of the neutron population in a multiplying system, are integral to time-dependent behavior and diagnostic applications. However, uncertainties in the evaluated nuclear data can significantly impact the accuracy of transport simulations for such quantities. This work explores the use of machine learning models to predict two key outputs, α-eigenvalues and keff bias, using input features derived from α-eigenvalue sensitivities to nuclear data. The criticality safety benchmark models used in this study come from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments. Three models, random forest, XGBoost, and NGBoost, are trained on both energy-resolved and energy-summed α sensitivities. For the α-eigenvalue bias prediction, NGBoost achieved the highest R 2 (0.9476) using energy-resolved features, while XGBoost performed best using summed sensitivities. In contrast, when predicting the keff bias, all the models showed moderate predictive capability (best R 2 ≈ 0.72), as the mapping from the static α-sensitivities to the static keff bias was less direct. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was used to interpret the model predictions. Across both prediction tasks, the features associated with neutron capture [H-1 (n, γ)], uranium scattering reactions (such as 235 U elastic/inelastic), and actinide capture/fission reactions (such as 239 Pu and 234 U) were consistently identified as the most impactful. This highlights the key role of specific nuclear reactions and energy ranges in shaping both time-dependent and steady-state criticality behavior. These results demonstrated that α-sensitivities, despite being computed for time-dependent metrics, can provide valuable insights for predicting both α-eigenvalues and the keff bias. Moreover, machine learning models offer a promising pathway for uncovering important nuclear data dependencies and guiding future data evaluation efforts.

Nuclear data

Robustness of pairwise kinematic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect to optical-cluster-selection bias

The pairwise kinematic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect measures both the pairwise motion between galaxy groups and clusters and the amount of gas within them, providing a tracer for cosmic growth. To interpret the cosmological information in the kSZ measurements, it is crucial to understand the optical-cluster-selection bias on the kSZ observables. Line-of-sight structures that contribute to both the optical observable (e.g., richness) and the cosmological signal can induce a correlation between these two quantities at a fixed cluster mass. The selection bias arising from this correlation is a key systematic effect for cosmological analyses. For cosmological observables such as cluster abundance and weak lensing, controlling this selection bias may help explain the tension between the DES-Y1 results and the Planck constraints. In order to test for a kSZ effect equivalent of such a bias, we adopted an alternative mock richness based on galaxy counts within cylindrical volumes along the line of sight. We applied the cylindrical count method to hydrodynamical simulations across a wide range of galaxy-selection criteria, assigning richness consistent with DES-Y1 to the mock clusters. When comparing optically selected clusters to mass-selected halos, we find no significant bias on pairwise kSZ signals, pairwise velocities, or optical depth within our uncertainty limits of approximately 16, 10, and 8%, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Impact of Limited Degree of Freedom Drag Coefficients on a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Simulation

The worldwide effort to design and commission floating offshore wind turbines (FOWT) is motivating the need for reliable numerical models that adequately represent their physical behavior under realistic sea states. However, properly representing the hydrodynamic quadratic damping for FOWT remains uncertain, because of its dependency on the choice of drag coefficients (dimensionless or not). It is hypothesized that the limited degree of freedom (DoF) drag coefficient formulation that uses only translational drag coefficients causes mischaracterization of the rotational DoF drag, leading to underestimation of FOWT global loads, such as tower base fore-aft shear. To address these hydrodynamic modeling uncertainties, different quadratic drag models implemented in the open-source mid-fidelity simulation tool, OpenFAST, were investigated and compared with the experimental data from the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5) project. The tower base fore-aft shear and up-wave mooring line tension were compared under an irregular wave loading condition to demonstrate the effects of the different damping models. Two types of hydrodynamic quadratic drag formulations were considered: (1) member-based dimensionless drag coefficients applied only at the translational DoF (namely limited-DoF drag model) and (2) quadratic drag matrix model (in dimensional form). Based on the results, the former consistently underestimated the 95th percentile peak loads and spectral responses when compared to the OC5 experimental data. In contrast, the drag matrix models reduced errors in estimates of the tower base shear peak load by 7–10% compared to the limited-DoF drag model. The underestimation in the tower base fore-aft shear was thus inferred be related to mischaracterization of the rotational pitch drag and the heave motion/drag by the limited-DoF model.

17 WIND ENERGY

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE