Results for “uncertainty qualification” — Page 3

NASA NTRS2015

AST Launch Vehicle Acoustics

The liftoff phase induces acoustic loading over a broad frequency range for a launch vehicle. These external acoustic environments are then used in the prediction of internal vibration responses of the vehicle and components which result in the qualification levels. Thus, predicting these liftoff acoustic (LOA) environments is critical to the design requirements of any launch vehicle. If there is a significant amount of uncertainty in the predictions or if acoustic mitigation options must be implemented, a subscale acoustic test is a feasible pre-launch test option to verify the LOA environments. The NASA Space Launch System (SLS) program initiated the Scale Model Acoustic Test (SMAT) to verify the predicted SLS LOA environments and to determine the acoustic reduction with an above deck water sound suppression system. The SMAT was conducted at Marshall Space Flight Center and the test article included a 5% scale SLS vehicle model, tower and Mobile Launcher. Acoustic and pressure data were measured by approximately 250 instruments. The SMAT liftoff acoustic results are presented, findings are discussed and a comparison is shown to the Ares I Scale Model Acoustic Test (ASMAT) results.

Houston, Janice↗

NASA NTRS2015

SLS Scale Model Acoustic Test Liftoff Results and Comparisons

The liftoff phase induces acoustic loading over a broad frequency range for a launch vehicle. These external acoustic environments are then used in the prediction of internal vibration responses of the vehicle and components which result in the qualification levels. Thus, predicting these liftoff acoustic (LOA) environments is critical to the design requirements of any launch vehicle. If there is a significant amount of uncertainty in the predictions or if acoustic mitigation options must be implemented, a subscale acoustic test is a feasible design phase test option to verify the LOA environments. The NASA Space Launch System (SLS) program initiated the Scale Model Acoustic Test (SMAT) to verify the predicted SLS LOA environments.

Houston, Janice↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Unstructured Mesh Adaptation for Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes/Large Eddy Simulation

Mesh adaptation methods for the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations are rapidly maturing and beginning to impact the design of aerospace vehicles. RANS turbulence modeling improvements have slowed and may stagnate. Wall-modeled large eddy simulation (LES) and hybrid RANS/LES (HRLES) may provide an improved modeling capability but require specialized expertise to construct appropriate meshes and are considered be too ex-pensive for routine practical use. The realization of the CFD Vision 2030 Study includes improving geometry linkage, mesh generation/adaptation, and turbulence modeling/resolving methods for automated management of errors and uncertainties of physics-based, predictive modeling that can set the stage for ensuring a vehicle is in compliance with a regulation or specification (i.e., certification or qualification by analysis). An exploration of mesh adaptation for HRLES is performed to document synergies and challenges between mesh adaptation and HRLES. Vortex breakdown over a delta wing is examined to show the improvement of HRLES over RANS turbulence modeling approaches. A high lift configuration is shown to demonstrate complex geometry capability. Research and development opportunities are identified to advocate for continuing investments that may allow HRLES to enter routine practical use as a tool for aerospace vehicle analysis and design.

Michael A Park↗

NASA NTRS2016

Source Data Applicability Impacts on Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Fault Tree Models

Launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using both heritage and new hardware. Design modifications to the heritage hardware to fit new functional system requirements can impact the applicability of heritage reliability data. Risk estimates for newly designed systems must be developed from generic data sources such as commercially available reliability databases using reliability prediction methodologies, such as those addressed in MIL-HDBK-217F. Failure estimates must be converted from the generic environment to the specific operating environment of the system where it is used. In addition, some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Characterizing data applicability under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This paper will demonstrate a data-source applicability classification method for assigning uncertainty to a target vehicle based on the source and operating environment of the originating data. The source applicability is determined using heuristic guidelines while translation of operating environments is accomplished by applying statistical methods to MIL-HDK-217F tables. The paper will provide a case study example by translating Ground Benign (GB) and Ground Mobile (GM) to the Airborne Uninhabited Fighter (AUF) environment for three electronic components often found in space launch vehicle control systems. The classification method will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need to for more applicable data to reduce uncertainty.

Al Hassan, Mohammad↗

NASA NTRS2016

Source Data Impacts on Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Fault Tree Models

Launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using both heritage and new hardware. Design modifications to the heritage hardware to fit new functional system requirements can impact the applicability of heritage reliability data. Risk estimates for newly designed systems must be developed from generic data sources such as commercially available reliability databases using reliability prediction methodologies, such as those addressed in MIL-HDBK-217F. Failure estimates must be converted from the generic environment to the specific operating environment of the system in which it is used. In addition, some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Characterizing data applicability under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This paper will demonstrate a data-source applicability classification method for suggesting epistemic component uncertainty to a target vehicle based on the source and operating environment of the originating data. The source applicability is determined using heuristic guidelines while translation of operating environments is accomplished by applying statistical methods to MIL-HDK-217F tables. The paper will provide one example for assigning environmental factors uncertainty when translating between operating environments for the microelectronic part-type components. The heuristic guidelines will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need for more applicable data to reduce model uncertainty.

Al Hassan, Mohammad↗

DOE OSTI2024

TRUST Sensors in Environments: Thermocouples (SE-TC) Report Release FY24

The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainty in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) project is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to the development, on-target assessment, and qualification of current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are critical to the current and future stockpile. This work uses and provides feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

TRUST Sensors in Environments: Fiber Optic Displacement (SE-FOD)

The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainty in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) project is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to the development, on-target assessment, and qualification of current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are critical to the current and future stockpile. Under the TRUST work package, engineers use and provide feedback on analysis tools and experimental results and create databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2011

Proposed Framework for Determining Added Mass of Orion Drogue Parachutes

The Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) project is executing a program to qualify a parachute system for a next generation human spacecraft. Part of the qualification process involves predicting parachute riser tension during system descent with flight simulations. Human rating the CPAS hardware requires a high degree of confidence in the simulation models used to predict parachute loads. However, uncertainty exists in the heritage added mass models used for loads predictions due to a lack of supporting documentation and data. Even though CPAS anchors flight simulation loads predictions to flight tests, extrapolation of these models outside the test regime carries the risk of producing non-bounding loads. A set of equations based on empirically derived functions of skirt radius is recommended as the simplest and most viable method to test and derive an enhanced added mass model for an inflating parachute. This will increase confidence in the capability to predict parachute loads. The selected equations are based on those published in A Simplified Dynamic Model of Parachute Inflation by Dean Wolf. An Ames 80x120 wind tunnel test campaign is recommended to acquire the reefing line tension and canopy photogrammetric data needed to quantify the terms in the Wolf equations and reduce uncertainties in parachute loads predictions. Once the campaign is completed, the Wolf equations can be used to predict loads in a typical CPAS Drogue Flight test. Comprehensive descriptions of added mass test techniques from the Apollo Era to the current CPAS project are included for reference.

Fraire, Usbaldo, Jr.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High Temperature Material Property Data and Challenges to Thermal Process Model Predictions and In-Situ/Ex-Situ Measurements for Metallic Additive Manufacturing

Understanding and predicting performance properties of parts produced by metallic additive manufacturing has improved significantly over the past decade; however, difficult to measure material properties and process outcomes continue to be challenges. The qualification or certification of aerospace parts require extensive measures to quantify variable part properties in order to buy down the risk of component failure. The variability, inherent to the additive manufacturing, process adds unwanted uncertainty in the production of load critical structural components. Process modeling has proven valuable in providing predictions and context for understanding outcomes of the additive manufacturing process; however, these physically informed process models require material properties at temperatures that are difficult to measure and rarely available. Further, calibrating or validating such models is difficult because the process itself is challenging to measure. This talk will explore some of the challenges resulting from difficult to acquire input data by relating thermal process model predictions to in-situ and ex-situ optical microscopy measurements.

Process Model↗

NASA NTRS2006

Postoptimality Analysis in the Selection of Technology Portfolios

This slide presentation reviews a process of postoptimally analysing the selection of technology portfolios. The rationale for the analysis stems from the need for consistent, transparent and auditable decision making processes and tools. The methodology is used to assure that project investments are selected through an optimization of net mission value. The main intent of the analysis is to gauge the degree of confidence in the optimal solution and to provide the decision maker with an array of viable selection alternatives which take into account input uncertainties and possibly satisfy non-technical constraints. A few examples of the analysis are reviewed. The goal of the postoptimality study is to enhance and improve the decision-making process by providing additional qualifications and substitutes to the optimal solution.

prioritization↗

NASA NTRS2019

Sketch-To-Solution: An Exploration of Viscous CFD with Automatic Grids

Numerical simulation of the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations has become a critical tool for the design of aerospace vehicles. However, the issues that affect the grid convergence of three dimensional RANS solutions are not completely understood, as documented in the AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop series. Grid adaption methods have the potential for increasing the automation and discretization error control of RANS solutions to impact the aerospace design and certification process. The realization of the CFD Vision 2030 Study includes automated management of errors and uncertainties of physics-based, predictive modeling that can set the stage for ensuring a vehicle is in compliance with a regulation or specification by using analysis without demonstration in flight test (i.e., certification or qualification by analysis). For example, the Cart3D inviscid analysis package has automated Cartesian cut-cell gridding with output-based error control. Fueled by recent advances in the fields of anisotropic grid adaptation, error estimation, and geometry modeling, a similar work flow is explored for viscous CFD simulations; where a CFD application engineer provides geometry, boundary conditions, and flow parameters, and the sketch-to-solution process yields a CFD simulation through automatic, error-based, grid adaptation.

Kleb, William L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Plan to Inform Testing of a Heat Exchanger Test Article

This report presents a preliminary plan to guide the qualification testing of advanced heat exchanger (HX) components for nuclear-to-industrial heat transfer applications. The objective is to establish a defensible, physics-based methodology that integrates computational modeling, targeted experimentation, and in-service inspection considerations to demonstrate component performance and reliability under representative reactor conditions. The analysis identifies Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) systems as reference configurations in terms of temperature, pressure, and chemical environment. Within these operating envelopes, dominant degradation mechanisms— including creep–fatigue interaction, flow-induced vibration, corrosion, and diffusion-bond deterioration—were evaluated to define test requirements. A comprehensive computationalexperimental framework is proposed to support life prediction and qualification activities. The framework couples high-fidelity structural-mechanics, thermal-hydraulic, and fluid-structure interaction models with accelerated degradation testing to produce a traceable linkage between microstructural evolution, mechanical performance, and remaining useful life (RUL). The approach adheres to established Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) standards (ASME V&V 10/20; NUREG-2152) and incorporates a digital-twin architecture for continuous model refinement through data assimilation. The plan further outlines testing methodologies, including pre-test analyses, test-loop design parameters, and sensor placement strategies that maximize information yield while maintaining mechanistic fidelity. Complementary sections describe in-service inspection (ISI), on-line monitoring (OLM), and structural-health-monitoring (SHM) techniques applicable to compact HX geometries typical of advanced reactors. Collectively, these activities establish the technical foundation for demonstrating 40-60-year equivalent service life of advanced heat exchangers in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Reactor and Integrated Energy Systems programs. The forthcoming phase will execute the defined pre-test analyses, initiate hardware fabrication, and implement the integrated testing campaign to validate the proposed qualification methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

TRUST Contact Thermal Conductance (TRUST-CTC) Report: FY24

The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) project is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are critical to the current and future stockpile. Staff development will include cross-discipline collaboration to provide engineers with experience in both numerical simulations and experimental methods. This work uses and provides feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development. TRUST currently includes five testbeds and their associated engineering analysis baseline models (EABMs): 1. contact thermal conductivity, (CTC) 2. nonlinear dynamics, (ND) 3. sensors in environments for accelerometers, (SEA) 4. sensors in environments for fiber optic displacement gages, and (SEFOD) 5. sensors in environments for thermocouples (SETC). The TRUST project uses single-feature testbeds to quantify uncertainties in specific models and experiments and to identify capability development needs that can help to reduce these uncertainties. Each testbed is designed, configured, and tested in collaboration with groups with design and experimental capability: E-14 and MPA-CINT. The complementary simulations are conducted using W-13 analysis tools and stored in model repositories with plans for incremental progress toward EABM requirements. W-13 extends and exercises the testbed simulations in collaboration with experimentalists for uncertainty quantification of current and future materials, geometries, and environments. Additionally, TRUST is intended to provide engineers in W-13 and E-14 with experience in both numerical simulations and experimental methods through cross-discipline collaborations. Following the introduction to the TRUST project, the remainder of this report focuses on experimental and analytical efforts conducted in Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 relevant to the TRUST Contact Thermal Conductance (CTC) testbed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Identifying high-impact and high-uncertainty parameters in MiniFuel model predictions

The MiniFuel irradiation platform at Oak Ridge National Laboratory's High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a flexible, high-throughput separate effects test capability. Finite element thermal models are relied upon to design MiniFuel experiments and to achieve experimental objectives. Recent reports show good agreement in the model prediction of target fuel temperatures, but as the capability of the experiments is extended to higher temperatures, the uncertainty in the model predictions must be quantified. To that end, high-impact, high-uncertainty parameters that contribute the most uncertainty to the model are identified. The uncertainty quantification was accomplished through a series of screening and sensitivity analyses. The first analysis utilizes the method of Morris to perform a computationally efficient preliminary screening that considers uncertainty in a large number of the model inputs. The most important parameters identified in the Morris screening study were then considered in a Sobol sensitivity analysis that more robustly ranks and quantifies the uncertainty associated with each parameter. From these analyses, it was determined that thermal contact conductance between components is the parameter that contributes the highest uncertainty. The estimated uncertainty of the MiniFuel model fuel temperature predictions is ±80 °C in the removable beryllium and ±40 °C in the vertical experiment facilities. In conclusion, the framework established by the series of sensitivity analyses presented herein could easily be adapted to fit the needs of accelerated fuel qualification processes.

Fuel, Irradiation↗

NASA NTRS1973

Balloon launched Viking decelerator test program

Four BLDT flights were conducted during the summer of 1972. The purpose of these tests was to qualify the Viking parachute system behind the full-scale Viking entry vehicle over the maximum range of entry conditions anticipated in the Viking '75 soft landing on Mars. A summary of the test series is presented. Test conditions ranged from a Mach number of 2.0 to 0.5 and dynamic pressure from 11.7 to 4.4 psf. This range of conditions covers the uncertainty in entry conditions at Mars due to atmospheric and entry performance uncertainties. Emphasis is placed on parachute performance and simulated Mars entry vehicle motions as influenced by the parachute performance. Conclusions are presented regarding the ability of the parachute to perform within the operational parameters required for a successful soft Martian landing. A list of references which covers all reports in the qualification test program is included.

Moog, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Completion of the Long Duration Wear Test of the NASA HERMeS Hall Thruster

The NASA Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) 12.5-kW Hall thruster has been the subject of extensive technology maturation by NASA GRC and JPL in preparation for development into a flight propulsion system. As part of this effort, a series of wear tests have been conducted to identify erosion phenomena and the accompanying failure modes as well as to validate service-life models for magnetically-shielded thrusters. This work presents a summary of the results obtained during the Long Duration Wear Test (LDWT), which was the third in this wear test series. The LDWT accumulated approximately 3,570 hours of operation and had the overall goal to identify and correct design or facility issues prior to the flight qualification campaign. Thruster performance, stability, and plume properties were invariant throughout the duration of the LDWT and consistent with measurements acquired during previous HERMeS performance and wear characterizations. Average erosion rates of a carbon-carbon composite pole cover were found to match those measured with graphite to within the empirical uncertainty while the previously observed time-dependence of pole cover erosion rates was linked to changes in pole cover roughness. Azimuthal variations in keeper wear rate were observed including deposition on one of the azimuthal-facing sides of the keeper mask. This strongly suggests the presence of an azimuthal component in the process driving keeper erosion.

Frieman, Jason D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Completion of the Long Duration Wear Test of the NASA HERMeS Hall Thruster

The NASA Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) 12.5-kW Hall thruster has been the subject of extensive technology maturation by NASA GRC and JPL in preparation for development into a flight propulsion system. As part of this effort, a series of wear tests have been conducted to identify erosion phenomena and the accompanying failure modes as well as to validate service-life models for magnetically-shielded thrusters. This work presents a summary of the results obtained during the Long Duration Wear Test (LDWT), which was the third in this wear test series. The LDWT accumulated approximately 3,570 hours of operation and had the overall goal to identify and correct design or facility issues prior to the flight qualification campaign. Thruster performance, stability, and plume properties were invariant throughout the duration of the LDWT and consistent with measurements acquired during previous HERMeS performance and wear characterizations. Average erosion rates of a carbon-carbon composite pole cover were found to match those measured with graphite to within the empirical uncertainty while the previously observed time-dependence of pole cover erosion rates was linked to changes in pole cover roughness. Azimuthal variations in keeper wear rate were observed including deposition on one of the azimuthal-facing sides of the keeper mask. This strongly suggests the presence of an azimuthal component in the process driving keeper erosion.

Frieman, Jason D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Completion of the Long Duration Wear Test of the NASA HERMeS Hall Thruster

The NASA Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) 12.5-kW Hall thruster has been the subject of extensive technology maturation by NASA GRC and JPL in preparation for development into a flight propulsion system. As part of this effort, a series of wear tests have been conducted to identify erosion phenomena and the accompanying failure modes as well as to validate service-life models for magnetically-shielded thrusters. This work presents a summary of the results obtained during the Long Duration Wear Test (LDWT), which was the third in this wear test series. The LDWT accumulated approximately 3,570 hours of operation and had the overall goal to identify and correct design or facility issues prior to the flight qualification campaign. Thruster performance, stability, and plume properties were invariant throughout the duration of the LDWT and consistent with measurements acquired during previous HERMeS performance and wear characterizations. Average erosion rates of a carbon-carbon composite pole cover were found to match those measured with graphite to within the empirical uncertainty while the previously observed time-dependence of pole cover erosion rates was linked to changes in pole cover roughness. Azimuthal variations in keeper wear rate were observed including deposition on one of the azimuthal-facing sides of the keeper mask. This strongly suggests the presence of an azimuthal component in the process driving keeper erosion.

Jason David Frieman↗