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DOE OSTI2021

Project developer options to enhance the value of solar electricity as solar and storage penetrations increase

Increasing the penetration of photovoltaics (PV) reduces the marginal grid value of PV electricity. The declining grid value of PV with higher penetration could limit the technology's economic attractiveness and future demand. Various strategies have been proposed for preserving this value. Using a consistent framework, we analyze the net value (accounting for both cost and grid value) of more than ten strategies in the United States. Here, grid value is estimated from coincident wholesale power market prices and PV generation using observed historical prices or modeled future prices with up to 30% PV penetration. We find that established and emerging strategies designed to shift the timing of standalone PV generation at the expense of total generation—including orienting monofacial PV modules west or bifacial modules vertically—result in minor net-value benefits or penalties. Adding energy storage to such systems magnifies the net-value loss, because configurations that change the timing of PV production become redundant when the energy-shifting capabilities of storage are added. The largest net-value gains come from strategies that maximize generation (solar tracking plus oversized PV arrays) in conjunction with storage, especially at high PV penetrations. PV systems are long-lived assets. Our results suggest that efforts to promote generation-maximizing strategies today may yield increasing net-value benefits as PV and storage deployments continue to accelerate in the United States over the coming decades.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

One-bond 13 C– 13 C spin-coupling constants in saccharides: a comparison of experimental and calculated values by density functional theory using solid-state 13 C NMR and X-ray crystallography

Methyl aldohexopyranosides were 13 C-labeled at contiguous carbons, crystallized, and studied by single-crystal X-ray crystallography and solid-state 13 C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to examine the degree to which density functional theory (DFT) can calculate one-bond 13C–13C spin-coupling constants ( 1 J CC ) in saccharides with sufficient accuracy to permit their use in MA'AT analysis, a newly-reported hybrid DFT/NMR method that provides probability distributions of molecular torsion angles in solution (Zhang et al., J. Phys. Chem. B, 2017, 121, 3042–3058; Meredith et al., J. Chem. Inf. Model., 2022, 62, 3135–3141). Experimental 1 J CC values in crystalline samples of the doubly 13 C-labeled compounds were measured by solid-state 13 C NMR and compared to those calculated from five different DFT models: (1) 1 J CC values calculated from single structures identical to those observed in crystalline samples by X-ray crystallography (all atom refinement); (2) 1 J CC values calculated from the single structures in (1) but after Hirshfeld atom refinement (HAR); (3) 1 J CC values calculated from the single structures in (1) after DFT-optimization of hydrogen atoms only; and (4 and 5) 1 J CC values calculated in rotamers of torsion angle θ 2 (C1–C2–O2–O2H) or ω(C4–C5–C6–O6) from which either specific or generalized parameterized equations were obtained and used to calculate 1 J CC values in the specific θ 2 or ω rotamers observed in crystalline samples. Good qualitative agreement was observed between calculated 1 J CC values and those measured by solid-state 13 C NMR regardless of the DFT model, but in no cases were calculated 1 J CC values quantitative, differing (over-estimated) on average by 4–5% from experimental values. These findings, and those reported recently from solution NMR studies (Tetrault et al., J. Phys. Chem. B 2022, 126, 9506–9515), indicate that improvements in DFT calculations are needed before calculated 1 J CC values can be used directly as reliable constraints in MA'AT analyses of saccharides in solution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

DeepDist: real-value inter-residue distance prediction with deep residual convolutional network

Abstract Background Driven by deep learning, inter-residue contact/distance prediction has been significantly improved and substantially enhanced ab initio protein structure prediction. Currently, most of the distance prediction methods classify inter-residue distances into multiple distance intervals instead of directly predicting real-value distances. The output of the former has to be converted into real-value distances to be used in tertiary structure prediction. Results To explore the potentials of predicting real-value inter-residue distances, we develop a multi-task deep learning distance predictor (DeepDist) based on new residual convolutional network architectures to simultaneously predict real-value inter-residue distances and classify them into multiple distance intervals. Tested on 43 CASP13 hard domains, DeepDist achieves comparable performance in real-value distance prediction and multi-class distance prediction. The average mean square error (MSE) of DeepDist’s real-value distance prediction is 0.896 Å 2 when filtering out the predicted distance ≥ 16 Å, which is lower than 1.003 Å 2 of DeepDist’s multi-class distance prediction. When distance predictions are converted into contact predictions at 8 Å threshold (the standard threshold in the field), the precision of top L/5 and L/2 contact predictions of DeepDist’s multi-class distance prediction is 79.3% and 66.1%, respectively, higher than 78.6% and 64.5% of its real-value distance prediction and the best results in the CASP13 experiment. Conclusions DeepDist can predict inter-residue distances well and improve binary contact prediction over the existing state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, the predicted real-value distances can be directly used to reconstruct protein tertiary structures better than multi-class distance predictions due to the lower MSE. Finally, we demonstrate that predicting the real-value distance map and multi-class distance map at the same time performs better than predicting real-value distances alone.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Low-Temperature Plasma Treatment for Enhanced Recovery of Highly Valued Critical REEs from Coal (Final Report)

The principle objective of this project was to develop a novel process flowsheet using low-temperature plasma treatment (LTP) integrated with conventional hydrometallurgical processes to recover rare earth elements (REEs), especially highly valued REEs (i.e. scandium and critical REEs), from coal and coal byproducts. LTP treatment was used to pretreat the solid feed material prior to leaching in an effort to improve the leaching characteristics of the REEs and potentially reduce acid consumption. Initially, a detailed experimental program was performed on a laboratory LTP furnace to identify a set of process parameter values to be used for assessing the enhanced leaching performance achieved on four specific gravity fractions of West Kentucky No. 13 and Fire Clay coarse coal refuse materials. High-temperature oxidation (HTO)) was also evaluated as a means for improving REE leachability on the same fractions of both coal sources. The lixiviants used to assess leachability improvements included: i) untreated water, ii) 0.1 M ammonium sulfate solution and iii) 1.2 M sulfuric acid solution at a temperature of 75°C. The laboratory data was used to develop multiple process flow sheets using HTO only to produce a rare earth oxide mix concentrate or utilizing both LTP and HTO treatment processes to generate a high purity heavy REO mix concentrate and a light REO mix concentrate. A techno-economic analysis was performed on each circuit. Low-temperature plasma oxidation was found to enhance REE leaching characteristics for all specific gravity (SG) fractions of the West Kentucky No. 13 coarse refuse material. The leaching recovery improvement was preferentially achieved for the heavy REEs with higher values obtained when treating the lower density fraction material. For example, the leaching recovery for the heavy REEs in the untreated 1.6 SG Float fraction material was 8% in a 0.1 M ammonium sulfate solution. After LTP treatment for 32 hours, heavy REE recovery increased to 33%. The corresponding recovery value for the light REEs was 10%. These findings indicate a strong affinity of the heavy REEs with the organic material, which is the component being reduced in content during the LTP treatment. Scanning electron micrographs showed the development of a honeycomb structure with increased LTP treatment with higher surface area as confirmed from BET measurements. Higher surface area promotes improved leaching efficiency due to enhance chemical interactions. When using 1.2 M sulfuric acid, the LTP treatment was found to provide a heavy REE recovery increase from 23% to 53% for the 1.6 SG Float fraction which corresponded to an ash content increase from around 20% to 35%. However, LTP treatment provided no improvement in leaching characteristic for the 2.2 SG sink material in the acid solution, which was likely due to the low organic content. The LTP treatment of the Fire Clay SG fractions provided no improvement in REE leaching characteristic, which may be due to the association with REE minerals such as monazite and REE-associated mineral matter such as clays. High temperature oxidation using temperatures in the range of 600-750OC was found to significantly enhance the leaching characteristics of both the light and heavy REEs for all density fractions in both coarse coal refuse materials. Generally, the increase in light REE recovery for the West Kentucky material was from 15% for the untreated material to 90% for the HTO treated material at 600°C. Recovery values dropped significantly when using temperatures below 600°C and above 750°C. The impact of the excessive temperatures was most likely a result of sintering. For the heavy REEs, HTO significantly improved recovery in the lighter SG fractions, which may be due to an affinity with the organic content. Only limited heavy REE recovery improvement was obtained for the denser SG fractions. Another benefit of HTO is the conversion of calcium-based minerals to a very soluble calcium oxide, which is removable using a mild acid solution, and the conversion of Fe minerals to relatively insoluble minerals such as hematite and magnetite. The pregnant leaching solution produced from the leaching of all SG fractions obtained from both coal sources was treated using two stages of solvent extraction procedurally modeling a rougher-cleaner circuit followed by oxalic acid precipitation. Rare earth oxide products having a purity greater than 97% was produced from nearly all of the SG fractions. A novel process flowsheet was developed based on the selective leaching of heavy REEs that was made possible through LTP treatment of West Kentucky No. 13 coarse refuse followed by salt leaching. In the flowsheet, coal refuse material is ground to a top size of 1mm and then treated by LTP. The treated material is mixed into a 0.1 M ammonium sulfate solution and then filtered to produce a heavy REE enriched pregnant leach solution. The heavy REEs are concentrated by two stages of selective precipitation to produce a heavy REE mix oxalate and then roasted to obtain a heavy REO mix concentrate. The solid residues remaining after salt leaching is dried and then subjected to HTO treatment followed by concentration using selective precipitation and roasting to produce a light REO mix concentrate. An alternative circuit was developed using HTO treatment only to treat 100% of the coarse refuse material followed by selective precipitation and roasting to generate a high purity REO mix product. A techno-economic analysis performed for the treatment of West Kentucky No. 13 and Fire Clay coarse refuse based on a hypothetical 500-tph plant revealed that the net present value for all scenarios was significantly negative. Primary reasons include: i) a substantial decrease in the basket value of the final product relative to the feed and ii) high chemical costs relative to the amount of product generated. The basket value reduction was primarily due to little to no scandium recovery due to poor leaching characteristics when using low acid concentrations as necessitated by the low feed grades. Operating costs were primarily influenced by the chemical costs relative to the kilograms of concentrate produced and feed grade. For the Fire Clay coarse refuse material, the total operating cost was estimated to be $354 per kg of REO produced which was higher than the basket value of the REO product ($276/kg). Approximately 37% of the total cost was the sulfuric acid used during the leaching process. A comparative analysis performed to assess the economic viability of using low-temperature plasma furnaces found that market value enhancement for the generation of both heavy REO and light REO concentrates will be needed in addition to significant technology advancements to reduce the cost of plasma furnaces.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data compression system using base values and methods thereof

In some embodiments, a memory controller in a processor includes a base value cache, a compressor, and a metadata cache. The compressor is coupled to the base value cache and the metadata cache. The compressor compresses a data block using at least a base value and delta values. The compressor determines whether the size of the data block exceeds a data block threshold value. Based on the determination of whether the size of the compressed data block generated by the compressor exceeds the data block threshold value, the memory controller transfers only a set of the compressed delta values to memory for storage. A decompressor located in the lower level cache of the processor decompresses the compressed data block using the base value stored in the base value cache, metadata stored in the metadata cache and the delta values stored in memory.

Seyedzadehdelcheh, SeyedMohammad↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data compression system using base values and methods thereof

Seyedzadehdelcheh, Seyed Mohammad↗

DOE OSTI2020

A review of coal heating value correlations with application to coal char, tar, and other fuels

Accurately measuring a fuel’s heating value is one of the first steps in the classification of a new fuel. Heating values are widely used in coal combustion research and are becoming more useful in other fuel types as well. Many different empirical correlations to predict heating values based on primary organic (CHONS) elemental composition are found in the literature, many of which were originally created to predict heating values of parent coal, and some of which have been extended for biomass. However, no correlations exist for heating values of coal chars and tars. Thirteen literature heating value correlations (10 model forms with 13 unique sets of coefficients) were evaluated for their predictive accuracy of a wide variety of fuel types, including 353 coals. This comparative analysis showed that the predictive capabilities of many of these literature models are very similar for coal-based fuels, with good correlation of coal char heating values. Correlation of coal tar heating values was hampered by the lack of heating value data. The choice of which model to use becomes more important for biomass fuels as well as for more unique fuel types like propellants and explosives, municipal solid waste, etc. Finally, the best model forms for each fuel type are suggested based on several statistical measures of fit.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2020

A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles

The added value of using regional climate models (RCMs) to downscale data from general circulation models (GCMs) has often been questioned and researched. Although several studies have used different methods to identify (and in some cases quantify) the added value, there is still a need to find a general metric that quantifies the added value of any variable. This paper builds on past studies to propose a new metric of added value in the simulation of present-day climate which measures the difference in the probability density functions (PDFs) at each grid-cell between a model and an observation source, and then compares the results of the RCM and GCM in order to spatially compute the added value index. The same method is also adapted to quantify the climate change downscaling signal in a way that is consistent with the present-day metric. These new metrics are tested on the daily precipitation output from the EURO-CORDEX and CORDEX-CORE projection ensembles and reveal an overall positive added value of RCMs, especially at the tail-end of the distribution. Higher added value is obtained in areas of complex topography and coast-lines, as well as in tropical regions. Areas with large added value in present-day climate are consistent with areas of significant climate change downscaling signal in the RCP 8.5 far future simulations, and when the analysis is repeated at a low-resolution. The use of different resolution observations shows that the added value tends to decrease when models are compared to low-resolution observation datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Empirical Indicators of Transmission Value in the Southeast United States

Concurrent differences in energy price between different parts of the electric grid are a key indicator of the value of additional transmission. In areas without a wholesale electricity market, such as the Southeast, an alternative indicator to price is the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) system lambda data. This economic metric represents the minimized marginal production costs of thermal generators, including fuel and other variable operation and maintenance expenses. Balancing Authorities report a single system lambda for their entire balancing area. Most Southeastern lambdas exhibit sufficient price variation to support a transmission valuation analysis, although incomplete accounting of congestion costs or scarcity rents during peak load hours may underestimate the true value of transmission capacity. With transmission value defined as the annual average hourly absolute price difference between two regions and FERC’s system lambda data used as a price proxy, we find the following results in the Southeast region during 2012-2023 (reported in $\$2024$/MWh): Intra‐regional findings: Annual averages historically span $\$2$–$\$28$/MWh and average $\$12$/MWh in SERTP and span $\$4$–$\$19$/MWh and average $\$9$/MWh in FRCC, disregarding transmission value driven by anomalous data. The ranges of transmission value reported here are large, spanning an order of magnitude in some cases. Much of this variation is driven by year-to-year changes, with 2022 having a particularly high intra-regional transmission value due to elevated natural gas prices. Inter‐regional corridors: Annual average transmission values across three broader regions range from $\$6$ to $\$28$/MWh with a long-term average of $\$11$/MWh. Much of the transmission value is concentrated in a small portion of hours. Across all regions, severe weather—particularly polar vortex events in January 2018, February 2021, and December 2022—drives the largest price spreads. Seasonal patterns also emerge, with summer afternoons and fall mornings contributing consistently to transmission value, as for example between MISO and SOCO in 2023.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Spectroscopic Techniques for Determining the Peroxide Value of 19 Classes of Naturally Aged, Plant-Based Edible Oils

The peroxide value of edible oils is a measure of the degree of oxidation, which directly relates to the freshness of the oil sample. Several studies previously reported in the literature have paired various spectroscopic techniques with multivariate analyses to rapidly determine peroxide values using field portable and process instrumentation; those efforts presented “best-case scenarios” with oils from narrowly defined training and test sets. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the use of near- and mid-infrared absorption and Raman scattering spectroscopies on oil samples from different oil classes, including seasonal and vendor variations, to determine which measurement technique or combination thereof is best for predicting peroxide values. Following peroxide value assays of each oil class using an established titration-based method, global and global-subset calibration models were constructed from spectroscopic data collected on the 19 oil classes used in this study. Spectra from each optical technique were used to create partial least squares regression calibration models to predict the peroxide value of unknown oil samples. A global peroxide value model based on near-infrared (8 mm optical path length) oil measurements produced the lowest RMSEP (4.9), followed by 24 mm optical path length near infrared (5.1), Raman (6.9) and 50 µm optical path length mid-infrared (7.3). However, it was determined that the Raman RMSEP resulted from chance correlations. Global peroxide value models based on low-level fusion of the NIR (8 and 24 mm optical path length) data and all infrared data produced the same RMSEP of 5.1. Global subset models, based on any of the spectroscopies and olive oil training sets from any class (pure, extra light, extra virgin), all failed to extrapolate to the non-olive oils. However, the near-infrared global subset model built on extra virgin olive oil could extrapolate to test samples from other olive oil classes. This work demonstrates the difficulty of developing a truly global method for determining peroxide value of oils.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uplifting winds: The surprisingly positive community-wide impact of wind energy installations on property values

A primary concern of stakeholders when considering a new wind project is the potential negative effects wind turbines may have on home values. Yet, what has been surprisingly overlooked in the literature and general discourse around wind energy is that the well-researched positive economic development and fiscal and amenity benefits of wind energy (e.g., increased tax base, tax revenue, better public services and employment gains) might positively affect jurisdiction-wide housing values. With a focus on school districts in the United States, we compare home values in school districts with wind energy installations, before and after a wind energy installation becomes operational, to home values in other school districts located in the same county but without a wind energy installation to provide some of the first causal evidence on the relationship between wind energy projects and district-wide property values. We find that wind projects lead to economically meaningful increases in district-wide housing values of approximately 3 %, when those values are compared to similar homes located in school districts in same-county without wind energy. The effect is strongly correlated with wind project size. The mechanisms, our research suggests, are likely related to relatively large increases in school district per-pupil revenues and expenditures, which are also correlated with wind project size. We suggest other possible mechanisms for the increased values as well.

Attitudes↗

DOE OSTI2024

Seismic monitoring of EGS fracture stimulations at Utah FORGE (Part 1): Time-lapse variations of b-values and Shear-wave Splitting Rates of induced microearthquakes

Characterizing geologic formations near geothermal wells is crucial for efficient extraction of subsurface geothermal energy resources. To monitor effective fracture stimulation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), we analyze a catalog of induced microearthquakes to characterize seismicity induced by Phase 2C fracture stimulations of the Utah FORGE project and derive the b-values for 424 induced microearthquakes in three stages of fracture stimulation. Here, we find the time-lapse variations of these b-values. We apply eigenvector rotation and waveform correlation to 3C geophone data to separate fast S 1 and slow S 2 waves, determine their directions, measure their lag time, and calculate the S-wave splitting rate (SSR) for six induced microearthquakes in Stage 1 and 21 in Stage 3. Both SSR values and b-values increase with time. The increase in these values may be related to heavily fractured zones created by fracture stimulations during Stage 2 injections. Large and highly variable SSR values in Stage 3 may reflect heterogeneities in the fracture zones. Time-lapse variations of SSR values and b-values may be one of the most useful approaches to monitoring and characterizing the effectiveness and efficiency of various types of fracture stimulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Variations in pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic target values across MICs and their potential impact on determination of susceptibility test interpretive criteria

Abstract Background An antibacterial drug’s susceptibility test interpretive criteria (STIC) are determined by integrating clinical, microbiological and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) data. PTA analysis plays a pivotal or supportive role in STIC determination and is heavily dependent on the PK-PD target values determined from animal PK-PD studies. Therefore, variations in PK-PD target values may impact STIC determination. Factors contributing to variation in the PK-PD target values include the number of and MICs for bacterial isolates used in animal PK-PD studies. Objectives To analyse the relationship between PK-PD target values and MICs, describe the variations in PK-PD target values of isolates and evaluate whether the proposed/target STICs were within the ranges of the MICs for isolates used in animal PK-PD studies. Methods A database was compiled for this research by screening animal PK-PD study reports submitted to the FDA from 10 new drug applications (NDAs). Results A relationship evaluation between PK-PD target values and MICs for tested isolates for seven drugs (that used AUC/MIC ratio as the PK-PD index) showed that, generally, the AUC/MIC values decreased with an increase in MIC. These target values were highly variable, with the percentage coefficient of variation ranging between 1% and 132% for isolates having the same MIC. For 16/27 (59%) drug/bacteria combinations from all 10 drugs, the proposed/target STICs were higher than the highest MIC for bacteria isolates evaluated, while 6/27 (22.5%) were lower. Conclusions This research suggests that careful considerations related to selection of bacterial isolates for animal PK-PD studies could strengthen the STIC determination process.

Waack, Ursula↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effective Missing Value Imputation Methods for Building Monitoring Data

To understand behaviors of natural and man-made events, such as energy consumption of buildings, which accounts for 40% of energy uses in the US, we deploy automated monitoring devices to record periodic observations. However, such experimental and observation data often contains problems and irregularities that have to be cleaned up before analyses. Due to various conditions affecting sensor operations, the communication channels, recording steps, or the recording media, the recorded data might have missing values, errors, or anomalous values. An effective way to clean up these problems is to replace these missing values, errors and anomalous values with expected values, a process generally known as imputation. In this work, we survey commonly used missing value imputation techniques and compare their performance on a set of building monitoring data. To compare the different types of sensor measurements with widely varying characteristics, we use normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) as the key metric for the effectiveness of the imputation methods. We additionally consider periodicity and run time when considering comparing methods. Through extensive testing, we find that for small gap sizes, up to 8 consecutive missing values, linear interpolation performs the best; for larger gaps stretching up to 48 consecutive missing values, K-nearest neighbors provides the most accurate imputations; for even larger gaps, more computational intensive methods, such as matrix factorization, achieve the smallest NRMSE. Additionally, we observe that these computationally intensive algorithms not only provide accurate imputations for large gaps, but are also more robust across all types of sensors.

Cho, B↗

DOE OSTI2022

Influence of Hybridization on the Capacity Value of PV and Battery Resources

Utility-scale systems that combine solar photovoltaic and battery (PV+battery) technologies are growing in popularity on the U.S. bulk power system. The business case for PV+battery systems depends on both their ability to reduce costs and their ability to generate value synergies associated with the provision of energy, capacity, and ancillary services. Capacity value can constitute a significant portion of the value PV+battery hybrids provide to the grid (e.g., through avoided or deferred capacity) and receive through revenues. Throughout this report, we define capacity value as the monetary value of a plant's contribution towards the planning reserve margin, which ultimately depends on market rules and structures. PV+battery hybrids do not always fit into current market structures because of the interactions between the PV and battery components. Unique considerations for the capacity value of PV+battery hybrids include the disparate nature of participation models for PV and battery technologies in existing market rules and the potential influence of a shared interconnection capacity; limitations imposed by a shared inverter; limited ability to charge the battery in advance of capacity events if charging must be sourced from the coupled PV; and challenges or uncertainties associated with co-optimizing the operations of the PV and battery components. Grid operators are currently considering how market structures can be modified to optimally determine the capacity value provided by PV+battery systems, and the rules of how they are integrated into markets are still being written. As with any resource, poorly designed rules could increase the cost of energy and reduce system reliability, while well-designed rules could allow markets to receive the full benefits hybrid systems can offer without overcompensating them for the services they provide. Well-designed rules for PV+battery systems must consider the unique aspects listed above, while leveraging the commonalities with existing resource types. In this report, we summarize the technical capability and market rules that influence the capacity value of PV+battery systems. We further discuss the potential tradeoffs between computational complexity and accuracy for the various ways in which grid operators can credit PV+battery systems for capacity. Finally, we describe markets for capacity, survey current wholesale market rules applying to PV+battery systems, and provide a snapshot of the current regulatory landscape for PV+battery systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Empirical Estimates of Transmission Value using Locational Marginal Prices [Slides]

This study focuses on one potential benefit of transmission infrastructure—congestion relief. It explores historical grid conditions from 2012 through the first half of 2022, and evaluates the marginal value of transmission in facilitating trade within and across regional boundaries by calculating differences in observed nodal wholesale power prices. The study finds that wholesale power prices exhibit stark geographic differences that, in many cases, are stable over time. Many regional and interregional transmission links have significant potential economic value from reducing congestion and expanding opportunities for trade. In fact, many links have hourly average pricing differences in 2021 that exceeded $\$15$/MWh—equivalent to $130 million per year for a 1000 MW link. The value of transmission is correlated with overall energy prices and varies by region and year. Critically, extreme conditions and high-value periods play an outsized role in the value of transmission, with 50% of transmission’s congestion value coming from only 5% of hours. Transmission planners run the risk of understating the benefits of regional and interregional transmission if extreme conditions and high-value periods are not adequately considered. These periods are natural features of actual market operations. As such, the study highlights the need for planners to more-comprehensively assess the value of transmission under both normal and extreme conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cataloging and Quantifying Value Streams from Non-Powered Dam Conversion

Hydropower is a key resource in the United States’ renewable energy transition; however, only 3% of existing dams in the United States currently generate electricity. While many non-powered dams (NPDs) have the potential for energy generation, hydropower addition to these dams has been slow. This is likely due, in part, to perceptions that hydropower development has prohibitively long payback periods, especially in comparison to other renewable energy resources that have shorter development processes. On the other hand, powering some NPDs may unlock new value streams in addition to the value obtained from selling generated energy. There is a need to understand and quantify a wider range of additional value streams to help increase the feasibility of such hydropower projects. In this work, we catalog indirect value streams and difficult-to-quantify direct value streams from NPD retrofitting, specifying which stakeholders are affected, and what kind of impacts (positive or negative) might occur. We identify appropriate quantification methodologies for these indirect value streams and describe the best practices around their implementation for NPD site-level analysis. We also demonstrate the quantification of a few indirect value streams for a selected NPD site, allowing for easier integration of these value streams into future studies by providing basis and background for quantifying these elements.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Value and Representing Competitiveness of Electricity System Technologies in Economic Models

Evaluating competition between electricity technologies is challenging because it depends on both their costs and their values. While technology costs can typically be estimated from projections of the cost components - capital, fuel, and O&M - estimating a technology's value is more complex due to its dependence on its contributions to multiple different grid services, each with prices that can vary substantially over space and time. In this work, using an electricity model of the contiguous United States, we develop relationships between relative value and share of total generation for major electricity generation technologies which, when paired with projections of technology costs, can be used to estimate technology competitiveness. We identify significant differences in the relationship between relative value and generation share for variable renewable energy (VRE) and non-VRE sources, but we demonstrate that all technologies require consideration of their dynamic values (in addition to cost) when evaluating competitiveness. In addition, we demonstrate that relative value of a technology is substantially impacted by not only its own generation share but also other aspects of the system state, in particular the mix of other technologies present in the system. Finally, we use the developed relative value relationships in combination with projections of future technology costs in a coarse resolution model that competes technologies based on a comprehensive competitiveness metric: profitability-adjusted LCOE (PLCOE). We show that this simple representation of technology competition approximately recovers the generation mix from a detailed model, which is not possible using LCOE alone. Such an approach can be used to improve the representation of technology competition in coarse-resolution models such as integrated assessment models, for which simplified metrics are often needed.

electricity model↗