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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Composition Quantification of SiGeSn Alloys Through Time-of-Flight Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry: Calibration Methodologies and Validation With Atom Probe Tomography

Time-of-Flight Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) is a powerful technique for elemental compositional analysis and depth profiling of materials. However, it encounters the problem of matrix effects that hinder its application. In this work, we introduce a pioneering ToF-SIMS calibration method tailored for SixGeySnz ternary alloys. SixGe1-x and Ge1-zSnz binary alloys with known compositions are used as calibration reference samples. Through a systematic SIMS quantification study of SiGe and GeSn binary alloys, we unveil a linear correlation between secondary ion intensity ratio and composition ratio for both SiGe and GeSn binary alloys, effectively mitigating the matrix effects. Extracted relative sensitivity factor (RSF) value from SixGe1-x (0.07 < x < 0.83) and Ge1-zSnz (0.066 < z < 0.183) binary alloys are subsequently applied to those of SixGeySnz (0.011 < x < 0.113, 0.863 < y < 0.935 and 0.023 < z < 0.103) ternary alloys for elemental compositions quantification. These values are cross-checked by Atom Probe Tomography (APT) analysis, an indication of the great accuracy and reliability of as-developed ToF-SIMS calibration process. Furthermore, the proposed method and its reference sample selection strategy in this work provide a low-cost as well as simple-to-follow calibration route for SiGeSn composition analysis, thus driving the development of next-generation multifunctional SiGeSn-related semiconductor devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance Index Assessment for the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative

We report on 250 PV systems throughout the United States, comprising 157 MWdc of system capacity and more than 10,000 monthly performance index (PI) values. Loss factors were isolated including first-year start-up issues, snowfall, soiling and inverter downtime. Inverter availability was found to contribute significant system energy loss during the first six months of operation, with an average of 8% loss occurring during this period, and 2.3% on average thereafter. Other start-up issues beyond inverter downtime, such as partial string outage, contributed additional underperformance in the first year of operation across the fleet. Winter performance was also found to be below summer performance on average, likely due to snowfall. A relationship was found between monthly snowfall accumulation in centimeters and monthly under-performance, indicating a 6%-40% loss in months with measured snowfall, depending on climate. After correcting for availability, snow and startup loss, over 90% of systems were performing within 10% of monthly expectation based on satellite resource data and PVWatts production estimates.

loss factors↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Leasing Areas for Humboldt and Morro Bay Wind Energy Areas, California

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is providing scientific and technical services to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) under an interagency agreement. The purpose of this report is to provide technical assistance in delineating potential lease areas from the California wind energy areas (WEAs) that can be competitively auctioned to wind energy developers. Each wind energy area is presumed to be technically and economically feasible for wind energy development based on the economic cost study performed by NREL in 2020. The subsequent analysis summarized in this report is intended to help BOEM maximize efficient offshore wind energy resource use and ensure fair return to the Government for use of the lease areas, by making recommendations for viable ways to divide the WEAs into auctionable commercial lease areas of approximately equal value. We considered several factors that affect the value of lease areas for wind energy development, including mean wind speeds, water depth, seafloor gradient, seismicity, hard substrate, and access to infrastructure. The largest impact to generating capacity came from the choice of mooring technology and the resulting setback from the lease area boundaries. Based on our setback assumptions, the generating capacity for a wind plant using catenary moorings could be nearly 30% less than with vertical moorings in Humboldt, or approximately 20% less in Morro Bay. The likely range of generating capacity is 1.5 to 3 GW in Humboldt and 3 to 5 GW in Morro Bay.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental determination of critical resolved shear stress for strain-induced phase transformation

The current investigation reports the first attempt to measure the critical resolved shear stress to initiates strain-induced phase transformation in a three-dimensional polycrystalline aggregate using high-energy diffraction microscopy (HEDM). In situ tensile testing was performed on a Fe38.5Mn20Co20Cr15Si5Cu1.5 metastable alloy exhibiting transformation-induced plasticity (TRIP). Grains with a higher propensity for strain-induced phase transformation were tracked using HEDM. A sharp drop in grain specific stress, coinciding with the appearance of a new ε-hcp grain oriented relative to the parent γ-fcc phase, was taken as evidence of grain-specific stress required to trigger phase transformation. The highest resolved shear stress on the potential transformation systems was identified as the critical resolved shear stress (CRSS) for strain-induced phase transformation. For the studied metastable alloy, CRSS for transformation was determined to be 86±3 MPa which was very close to theoretical CRSS value determined using Schmid factor (89±12 MPa) compared to the value determined using Taylor factor (62±7 MPa).

Jain, Roopam↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prognostic analysis of high-flow nasal cannula therapy and non-invasive ventilation in mild to moderate hypoxemia patients and construction of a machine learning model for 48-h intubation prediction—a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC database

Background This study aims to investigate the clinical outcome between high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) and non-invasive ventilation (NIV) therapy in mild to moderate hypoxemic patients on the first ICU day and to develop a predictive model of 48-h intubation. Methods The study included adult patients from the MIMIC III and IV databases who first initiated HFNC or NIV therapy due to mild to moderate hypoxemia (100 < PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300). The 48-h and 30-day intubation rates were compared using cross-sectional and survival analysis. Nine machine learning and six ensemble algorithms were deployed to construct the 48-h intubation predictive models, of which the optimal model was determined by its prediction accuracy. The top 10 risk and protective factors were identified using the Shapley interpretation algorithm. Result A total of 123,042 patients were screened, of which, 673 were from the MIMIC IV database for ventilation therapy comparison (HFNC n = 363, NIV n = 310) and 48-h intubation predictive model construction (training dataset n = 471, internal validation set n = 202) and 408 were from the MIMIC III database for external validation. The NIV group had a lower intubation rate (23.1% vs. 16.1%, p = 0.001), ICU 28-day mortality (18.5% vs. 11.6%, p = 0.014), and in-hospital mortality (19.6% vs. 11.9%, p = 0.007) compared to the HFNC group. Survival analysis showed that the total and 48-h intubation rates were not significantly different. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model (internal and external validation set AUROC 0.878, 0.726) had the best predictive accuracy performance. The model Shapley algorithm showed Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), acute physiology scores (APSIII), the minimum and maximum lactate value as risk factors for early failure and age, the maximum PaCO 2 and PH value, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), the minimum PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and PaO 2 value as protective factors. Conclusion NIV was associated with lower intubation rate and ICU 28-day and in-hospital mortality. Further survival analysis reinforced that the effect of NIV on the intubation rate might partly be attributed to the other impact factors. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model may assist clinicians in making clinical decisions, and early organ function support to improve patients’ SOFA, APSIII, GCS, PaCO 2 , PaO 2 , PH, PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and lactate values can reduce the early failure rate and improve patient prognosis.

Fu, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonlinear control of the minimum safety factor in tokamaks by optimal allocation of spatially moving electron cyclotron current drive

The minimum value of the safety factor profile is related to the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability of the plasma confined in a tokamak. Therefore, active control of the minimum safety factor may mitigate MHD instabilities that can degrade or even terminate plasma confinement. Typically, in most tokamak scenarios, the minimum safety factor evolves spatially with time, i.e., the location at which the safety factor achieves the minimum value changes with time. In addition to the inherent nonlinearities in the minimum safety factor evolution, its spatial variation makes the control design challenging. In particular, complexity in control design may arise from the need for time-dependent nonlinear models that account for spatial variation of the minimum safety factor. Furthermore, the minimum safety factor may drift to locations where the actuator authority is low. The problem of minimum safety factor control with target location tracking and moving electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) is addressed in this work. A nonlinear time-dependent model that incorporates the spatial variation of the minimum safety factor is presented. A nonlinear controller based on optimal feedback linearization is developed to track a target minimum safety factor. The proposed controller treats the ECCD position as a controllable variable. In other words, the controller prescribes the ECCD position (in addition to the non-inductive powers) in real time based on an optimal criterion that is defined a priori. This work also presents the steps necessary to integrate the minimum safety factor controller with a total energy controller to achieve multiple control objectives simultaneously. In conclusion, the proposed integrated control algorithm is tested using nonlinear simulations in the Control Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM) for a DIII-D tokamak scenario.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Signature of nodal topology in nonlinear quantum transport across junctions in Weyl and multi-Weyl semimetals

We investigate quantum transport through a rectangular potential barrier in Weyl semimetals (WSMs) and multi-Weyl semimetals (MSMs), within the framework of Landauer-Büttiker formalism. Here, our study uncovers the role of nodal topology imprinted in the electric current and the shot noise. We find that, in contrast to the finite odd-order conductance and noise power, the even-order contributions vanish at the nodes. Additionally, depending on the topological charge ($J$), the linear conductance ($G_1$) scales with the Fermi energy ($E_F$) as $G^{E_F>U}_{1}$ $∝$ $E^{2/J}_{F}$, $U$ being the barrier height. We demonstrate that the $E_F$ dependence of the second-order conductance and shot noise power could quite remarkably distinguish an MSM from a WSM depending on the band topology, and may induce several smoking gun experiments in nanostructures made out of WSMs and MSMs. Analyzing shot noise and Fano factor, we show that the transport across the rectangular barrier follows the sub-Poissonian statistics. Interestingly, we obtain universal values of Fano factor at the nodes unique to their topological charges. The universality for a fixed $J$, however, indicates that only a fixed number of open channels participate in the transport through evanescent waves at the nodes. The proposed results can serve as a potential diagnostic tool to identify different topological systems in experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolution of Superconducting-Transition Temperature with Superfluid Density and Conductivity in Pressurized Cuprate Superconductors

What factors fundamentally determine the value of superconducting transition temperature T c in high temperature superconductors has been the subject of intense debate. Following the establishment of an empirical law known as Homes' law, there is a growing consensus in the community that the T c value of the cuprate superconductors is closely linked to the superfluid density (ρ s ) of its ground state and the conductivity (σ) of its normal state. However, all the data supporting this empirical law (ρ s = AσT c ) have been obtained from the ambient-pressure superconductors. In this study, we present the first high-pressure results about the connection of the quantities of ρ s and σ with T c , through the studies on the Bi 1.74 Pb 0.38 Sr 1.88 CuO 6+δ and Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8+δ , in which the value of their high-pressure resistivity (ρ = 1/σ) is achieved by adopting our newly established method, while the quantity of ρs is extracted using Homes' law. In conclusion, we highlight that the T c values are strongly linked to the joint response factors of magnetic field and electric field, i.e., ρ s and σ, respectively, implying that the physics determining T c is governed by the intrinsic electromagnetic fields of the system.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal surface-tension isotropy in the Rothman-Keller color-gradient lattice Boltzmann method for multiphase flow

The Rothman-Keller color-gradient (CG) lattice Boltzmann method is a popular method to simulate two-phase flow because of its ability to deal with fluids with large viscosity contrasts and a wide range of interfacial tensions. Here, two fluids are labeled red and blue, and the gradient in the color difference is used to compute the effect of interfacial tension. It is well known that finite-difference errors in the color-gradient calculation lead to anisotropy of interfacial tension and errors such as spurious currents. Here, we investigate the accuracy of the CG calculation for interfaces between fluids with several radii of curvature and find that the standard CG calculations lead to significant inaccuracy. Specifically, we observe significant anisotropy of the color gradient of order 7% for high curvature of an interface such as when a pinchout occurs. We derive a second order accurate color gradient and find that the diagonal nearest neighbors can be weighted differently than in the usual color-gradient calculation such that anisotropy is minimized to a fraction of a percent. The optimal weights that minimize anisotropy for the smallest radius of curvature interface are found to be w = (0.298, 0.284, 0.275) for diagonal nearest neighbors for the cases of the interface smoothing parameter β = (0.5, 0.7, 0.99), somewhat higher than the w = 0.25 value derived by Leclaire et al. [Leclaire, Reggio, and Trepanier, Computers and Fluids 48, 98 (2011)] based on obtaining isotropic errors to second order. We find that use of these optimal w values yields over a factor of 10 decrease in anisotropy and over a factor of 30 decrease in mean anisotropy relative to using the standard w = 1 value. And we find a factor of about 2 decrease in the anisotropic error and up to factor 15 decrease in mean anisotropic error relative to the choice of w = 0.25 for small radius of curvature interfaces. The improved CG calculations will allow the method to be more reliably applied to studies of phenomenology and pore scale processes such as viscous and capillary fingering, and droplet formation where surface-tension isotropy of narrow fingers and small droplets plays a crucial role in correctly capturing phenomenology. We present an example illustrating how different phenomena can be captured using the improved color-gradient method. Namely, we present simulations of a wetting fluid invading a fluid filled pipe where the viscosity ratio of fluids is unity in which droplets form at the transition to fingering using the improved CG calculations that are not captured using the standard CG calculations. We present an explanation of why this is so which relates to anisotropy of the surface tension, which inhibits the pinchouts needed to form droplets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advances in secondary ion mass spectrometry for N-doped niobium

Accurate secondary ion mass spectroscopy measurement of nitrogen in niobium relies on the use of closely equivalent standards, made by ion implantation, to convert nitrogen signal intensity to nitrogen content by determination of relative sensitivity factors (RSFs). Accurate RSF values for ppm-range nitrogen contents are increasingly critical, as more precision is sought in processes for next-generation superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) accelerator cavities. Furthermore, factors influencing RSF value measurements were investigated with the aim of reliably attaining better than 10% accuracy in nitrogen concentrations at various depths into the bulk. This has been accomplished for materials typical of SRF cavities at the cost of increased attention to all aspects.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Macroscopic weavable fibers of carbon nanotubes with giant thermoelectric power factor

Low-dimensional materials have recently attracted much interest as thermoelectric materials because of their charge carrier confinement leading to thermoelectric performance enhancement. Carbon nanotubes are promising candidates because of their one-dimensionality in addition to their unique advantages such as flexibility and light weight. However, preserving the large power factor of individual carbon nanotubes in macroscopic assemblies has been challenging, primarily due to poor sample morphology and a lack of proper Fermi energy tuning. Here, we report an ultrahigh value of power factor (14± 5 mW m -1 K -2 ) for macroscopic weavable fibers of aligned carbon nanotubes with ultrahigh electrical and thermal conductivity. The observed giant power factor originates from the ultrahigh electrical conductivity achieved through excellent sample morphology, combined with an enhanced Seebeck coefficient through Fermi energy tuning. We fabricate a textile thermoelectric generator based on these carbon nanotube fibers, which demonstrates high thermoelectric performance, weavability, and scalability. The giant power factor we observe make these fibers strong candidates for the emerging field of thermoelectric active cooling, which requires a large thermoelectric power factor and a large thermal conductivity at the same time.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing XRISM Cluster Velocity Dispersions with Predictions from Cosmological Simulations: Are Feedback Models Too Ejective?

The dynamics of the intracluster medium (ICM), the hot plasma that fills galaxy clusters, are shaped by gravity-driven cluster mergers and feedback from supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in the cluster cores. XRISM measurements of ICM velocities in several clusters offer insights into these processes. We compare XRISM measurements for nine galaxy clusters (Virgo, Perseus, Centaurus, Hydra-A, PKS 0745–19, A2029, Coma, A2319, and Ophiuchus) with predictions from three state-of-the-art cosmological simulation suites, TNG-Cluster, the Three Hundred Project GADGET-X, and GIZMO-SIMBA, that employ different models of feedback. In cool cores, XRISM reveals systematically lower velocity dispersions than the simulations predict, with all 10 measurements below the median simulated values by a factor of 1.5–1.7 on average and all falling within the bottom 10% of the predicted distributions. The observed kinetic-to-total pressure ratio is also lower, with a median value of 2.2%, compared to the predicted 5.0%–6.5% for the three simulations. Outside the cool cores and in non-cool-core (NCC) clusters, simulations show better agreement with XRISM measurements, except for the outskirts of the relaxed, cool-core cluster A2029, which exhibits an exceptionally low kinetic pressure support (<1%), with none of the simulated systems in either of the three suites reaching such low levels. The NCC Coma and A2319 exhibit dispersions at the lower end but within the simulated spread. Our comparison suggests that the three numerical models may overestimate the kinetic effects of SMBH feedback in cluster cores. Additional XRISM observations of NCC clusters will clarify if there is a systematic tension in the gravity-dominated regime as well.

galaxy clusters↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Review of Value of Solar Studies In Theory and In Practice

This brief summarizes a collection of state- and utility-commissioned value-of-solar (VoS) studies and related literature, with a focus on who commissioned the study, which value and cost categories were discussed and/or quantified, and the methods used. Our objective is to compile information on prior VoS studies to inform state regulators and other stakeholders that may pursue related studies or integrate findings into rate design. The brief is organized into three parts: 1) an introduction to distributed solar photovoltaic (DPV) compensation; 2) a review of theoretical research on VoS; and 3) a review of VoS studies. The vast majority of VoS studies have served an informational role of quantifying the net benefits of PV. Three studies were commissioned in states or utility service territories that subsequently implemented VoS tariffs in California, New York, and Austin, Texas. When applied as a tariff, VoS aims to compensate PV output as efficiently as possible by doing so at rates that reflect the marginal benefits and costs of PV through value and cost categories that may vary temporally and/or geographically. This could lead to higher compensation in locations and times where more PV output is more valuable and consequently drive adoption in those locations to provide more societal benefits. Value and cost factors can be broadly grouped into five categories: generation, transmission, distribution, other utility, and other social categories. Those conducting VoS studies must weigh various tradeoffs when deciding which categories to include and quantify. Tradeoffs include prioritizing values based on their magnitude of value or cost impact, as well as taking into account the feasibility of data collection and accurate quantification. Values of higher magnitude and estimation feasibility are quantified in the majority of studies, including the earliest of studies conducted in the 2000s and 2010s. Additionally, some values of higher magnitude but low feasibility in the earliest of studies have become quantifiable in recent years. There are some values with low average system-wide levels but very high magnitude in specific locations or hours. The value magnitude in some cases can be tied to DPV penetration with low value in areas with little congestion and/or low penetration and vice versa. In these cases, values that are easier to quantify are often incorporated, while those that are more difficult are often addressed via a placeholder value. The placeholder value is paired with a discussion around data needs and methods to improve future estimates, as well as a conversation about when these value categories may increase in magnitude and necessitate more rigorous quantification. This brief summarizes findings from two meta-analyses of VoS studies that took place between 2005 and 2018, as well as findings from four additional studies published from 2018 to 2023. Table ES-1 summarizes the various value and cost categories included in each respective study and whether they were quantified, discussed, or omitted. Values such as avoided energy, capacity, transmission capacity, line losses, and avoided environmental costs are quantified in every study. Some categories were deemed harder to quantify and less impactful at the time of the study, so they were discussed but not quantified (e.g., ancillary services). Other categories, including many at the distribution level, were very locationally and/or temporally specific and dependent on high DPV penetration. These were sometimes quantified and at other times discussed. Notably, when it came to utility costs, integration costs were discussed in all cases, though they were deemed to have a small impact. Other utility costs were omitted for the most part; however, the utility-commissioned study (by NorthWestern Energy in Montana) included both lost utility revenue and programmatic/administrative cost categories. While there are some similarities across studies, each had fairly unique methods that are detailed in the body of this brief.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comprehensive review of 2 β decay half-lives

Here, the double-beta (2 β )-decay is the rarest nuclear physics process, and its experimental half-lives (T 1/2 ) exceed the age of the Universe from nine to fourteen orders of magnitude. Double-beta decay was observed, and its half-life was measured in 14 parent nuclei using direct, radiochemical, and geochemical methods. The decay observables are analyzed using the Evaluated Nuclear Structure Data File (ENSDF) procedures, and the recommended T 1/2 were deduced. Using the calculated values of phase factors, the effective nuclear matrix elements were extracted and compared with available data. Thousands of theoretical and experimental works have been dedicated to these topics in the last 85 years, and we present two data sets of recommended values to encapsulate the results.

2β-decay↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comprehensive Review of 2$β$ Decay Half-Lives

The double-beta (2β)-decay is the rarest nuclear physics process, and its experimental half-lives (T 1/2 ) exceed the age of the Universe from nine to fourteen orders of magnitude. Double-beta decay was observed, and its half-life was measured in 14 parent nuclei using direct, radiochemical, and geochemical methods. The decay observables are analyzed using the Evaluated Nuclear Structure Data File (ENSDF) procedures, and the recommended T 1/2 were deduced. Using the calculated values of phase factors, the effective nuclear matrix elements were extracted and compared with available data. Thousands of theoretical and experimental works have been dedicated to these topics in the last 85 years, and we present two data sets of recommended values to encapsulate the results.

2β-decay↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the muon anomalous precession frequency at the Muon g − 2 Experiment at Fermilab

The anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, $a_\mu = \frac{g-2}{2}$ is the fractional deviation of the muon $g$-factor from the value of 2. It emerges as the cumulative effect of the virtual particles participating in the muon interaction with a magnetic field via quantum loop corrections. Its value encodes all the possible interactions between the virtual particles and, for this reason, represents an important test of the Standard Model (SM). In particular, any deviation from the SM theoretical evaluation could be due to new physics contributions. The new Muon $g-2$ (E989) Experiment at Fermilab is currently operating to repeat and improve the previous E821 experiment at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), aiming to reduce the experimental error by a factor of 4 to the final accuracy of 140 parts per billion (ppb). On April 7th, 2021, the E989 collaboration published the first result based on the first year of data taking (Run-1), measuring $a_\mu = 0.001~165~920~40(54)$ with a precision of 460 ppb. The measured value is consistent with the BNL measurement and strengthens the long-standing tension with the data-driven SM prediction to a combined discrepancy of 4.2$\sigma$. On the theory side, however, new efforts involving lattice-QCD techniques are starting to question the current consensus on the theoretical prediction, demanding new improvements on both the experimental and theoretical sides. The E989 collaboration is now finalizing the analysis of Run-2 and Run-3 data and a new publication is expected in the first half of 2023 with a combined statistical uncertainty of 200 ppb. The anomalous magnetic moment $a_\mu$ is measured as the ratio between the muon spin anomalous precession frequency, $\omega_a$, and the average magnetic field experienced by the muons as they circulate in the storage ring. This thesis presents a precession frequency analysis of the Run-1 data and an evaluation of the related systematic uncertainties. A new positron reconstruction developed for the analysis of the subsequent data-taking periods, aiming to reduce some of the major systematic uncertainties of the $\omega_a$ measurement, is presented. The author's involvement in the production of the Run-2/5 data and in the precise calibration of the detectors is discussed. Finally, the complete Run-1 $a_\mu$ result is presented.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical Significance Testing for Mixed Priors: A Combined Bayesian and Frequentist Analysis

In many hypothesis testing applications, we have mixed priors, with well-motivated informative priors for some parameters but not for others. The Bayesian methodology uses the Bayes factor and is helpful for the informative priors, as it incorporates Occam’s razor via the multiplicity or trials factor in the look-elsewhere effect. However, if the prior is not known completely, the frequentist hypothesis test via the false-positive rate is a better approach, as it is less sensitive to the prior choice. We argue that when only partial prior information is available, it is best to combine the two methodologies by using the Bayes factor as a test statistic in the frequentist analysis. We show that the standard frequentist maximum likelihood-ratio test statistic corresponds to the Bayes factor with a non-informative Jeffrey’s prior. We also show that mixed priors increase the statistical power in frequentist analyses over the maximum likelihood test statistic. We develop an analytic formalism that does not require expensive simulations and generalize Wilks’ theorem beyond its usual regime of validity. In specific limits, the formalism reproduces existing expressions, such as the p-value of linear models and periodograms. We apply the formalism to an example of exoplanet transits, where multiplicity can be more than 10 7 . We show that our analytic expressions reproduce the $p$-values derived from numerical simulations. We offer an interpretation of our formalism based on the statistical mechanics. We introduce the counting of states in a continuous parameter space using the uncertainty volume as the quantum of the state. We show that both the $p$-value and Bayes factor can be expressed as an energy versus entropy competition.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗