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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Assessing Bare-Ice Albedo Simulated By MAR Over the Greenland Ice Sheet (2000–2021) and Implications for Meltwater Production Estimates

Surface mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has accelerated over the past decades, mainly due to enhanced surface melting and liquid water runoff in response to atmospheric warming. A large portion of runoff from the GrIS originates from exposure of the darker bare ice in the ablation zone when the overlying snow melts, where surface albedo plays a critical role in modulating the energy available for melting. In this regard, it is imperative to understand the processes governing albedo variability to accurately project future mass loss from the GrIS. Bare-ice albedo is spatially and temporally variable and contingent on non-linear feedbacks and the presence of light-absorbing constituents. An assessment of models aiming at simulating albedo variability and associated impacts on meltwater production is crucial for improving our understanding of the processes governing these feedbacks and, in turn, surface mass loss from Greenland. Here, we report the results of a comparison of the bare-ice extent and albedo simulated by the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) with satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the GrIS below 70∘ N. Our findings suggest that MAR overestimates bare-ice albedo by 22.8 % on average in this area during the 2000–2021 period with respect to the estimates obtained from MODIS. Using an energy balance model to parameterize meltwater production, we find this bare-ice albedo bias can lead to an underestimation of total meltwater production from the bare-ice zone below 70∘ N of 42.8 % during the summers of 2000–2021.

albedo↗

Curvilinear projection developments

Gradient projection is a powerful algorithm for minimization of a function subject to constraints. Constraint nonlinearities hamper projection computations. The constraints must then be restored before another projection cycle. The restoration steps taken in the process of following nonlinear constraint surfaces can be used as a guide to the construction of a curve which more nearly follows the constraints than does the straight line in the projected gradient direction. This scheme, termed 'curvilinear projection', was explored in earlier research. The study presently reported carries out some computational experiments using a related version of the technique. Some other details of projection computations which turn out to be practically important are taken up: rules for updating the variable metric in projection when early termination of the one-dimensional search on constraint violation occurs, and active-constraint logic for screening inequalities that makes use of the Kuhn-Tucker necessary conditions.

Kelley, H. J.↗

Method of Conjugate Radii for Solving Linear and Nonlinear Systems

This paper describes a method to solve a system of N linear equations in N steps. A quadratic form is developed involving the sum of the squares of the residuals of the equations. Equating the quadratic form to a constant yields a surface which is an ellipsoid. For different constants, a family of similar ellipsoids can be generated. Starting at an arbitrary point an orthogonal basis is constructed and the center of the family of similar ellipsoids is found in this basis by a sequence of projections. The coordinates of the center in this basis are the solution of linear system of equations. A quadratic form in N variables requires N projections. That is, the current method is an exact method. It is shown that the sequence of projections is equivalent to a special case of the Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization process. The current method enjoys an advantage not shared by the classic Method of Conjugate Gradients. The current method can be extended to nonlinear systems without modification. For nonlinear equations the Method of Conjugate Gradients has to be augmented with a line-search procedure. Results for linear and nonlinear problems are presented.

Nachtsheim, Philip R.↗

Interannual Variability of Boreal Summer Rainfall in the Equatorial Atlantic

Tropical Atlantic rainfall patterns and variation during boreal summer [June-July-August (JJA)] are quantified by means of a 28-year (1979-2006) monthly precipitation dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Rainfall variability during boreal spring [March-April-May (MAM)] is also examined for comparison in that the most intense interannual variability is usually observed during this season. Comparable variabilities in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) strength and the basin-mean rainfall are found during both seasons. Interannual variations in the ITCZ's latitudinal location during JJA however are generally negligible, in contrasting to intense year-to-year fluctuations during MAM. Sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations along the equatorial region (usually called the Atlantic Nino events) and in the tropical north Atlantic (TNA) are shown to be the two major local factors modulating the tropical Atlantic climate during both seasons. During MAM, both SST modes tend to contribute to the formation of an evident interhemispheric SST gradient, thus inducing anomalous shifting of the ITCZ and then forcing a dipolar structure of rainfall anomalies across the equator primarily in the western basin. During JJA the impacts however are primarily on the ITCZ strength likely due to negligible changes in the ITCZ latitudinal location. The Atlantic Nino reaches its peak in JJA, while much weaker SST anomalies appear north of the equator in JJA than in MAM, showing decaying of the interhemispheric SST mode. SST anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific (the El Nino events) have a strong impact on tropical Atlantic including both the tropical north Atlantic and the equatorial-southern Atlantic. However, anomalous warming in the tropical north Atlantic following positive SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific disappears during JJA because of seasonal changes in the large-scale circulation cutting off the ENSO influence passing through the mid-latitudes. Hence the anomalies associated with the tropical Pacific during JJA are forced through an anomalous Walker circulation primarily working on the western basin, and likely a lagged oceanic response in the equatorial region.

Gu, Guojun↗

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 17: The relationship between seven variables and the use of US government technical reports by US aerospace engineers and scientists

A study was undertaken to investigate the relationship between the use of U.S. government technical reports by U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists and seven selected sociometric variables. Data were collected by means of a self-administered mail survey which was distributed to a randomly drawn sample of American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) members. Two research questions concerning the use of conference meeting papers, journal articles, in-house technical reports, and U.S. government technical reports were investigated. Relevance, technical quality, and accessibility were found to be more important determinants of the overall extent to which U.S. government technical reports and three other information products were used by U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗

Monitoring Physiological Variables with Membrane Probes

This project has demonstrated the possibility of using membrane probes in rodents to monitor physiological variables for extended periods of time. The utility of these probes in physiological studies of microgravity has been demonstrated. The feasibility of developing on-line sensors has also been demonstrated and allows for the possibility of developing real-time automated monitoring systems which can be used in ground-base physiological research as well as in research and medical monitoring in space. In addition to space applications these techniques can be extended to medical monitoring in critical care situations on earth as well as facilitating research in many human and animal diseases.

Janle, Elsa M.↗

Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP

The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge gained to support adaptation and mitigation decisions that require regional or global perspectives within the context of facilitating transformations to enable sustainable development, despite inevitable climate shifts and disruptions. ISIMIP uses community-agreed sets of scenarios with standardized climate variables and socioeconomic projections as inputs for projecting future risks and associated uncertainties, within and across sectors. The results are consistent multi-model assessments of sectoral risks and opportunities that enable studies that integrate across sectors, providing support for implementation of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Regional-scale risk models↗

VTOL as it applies to resource development in the Canadian north

It is pointed out that, for many of the natural resource development projects planned in Canada between now and the end of the century, it may be necessary for the work force to commute to the site by air. Examples of successful operations, including those involving VTOL, are given. A computer program developed for determining the least expensive type of aircraft for commuting to remote projects is described. It is noted that the program can select both fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft types for a specific project, employing such variables as the size and shift schedules of the work force and the commuting distance. Capital and operating costs of existing and proposed aircraft types, as well as groundside infrastructure operations and maintenance costs, are compared for competing aircraft.

Lightfoot, R. N.↗

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. In its simplest form we decompose the error into a part attributable to phase errors and a remainder. The phase error is represented in the same fashion as a velocity field and is required to vary slowly and smoothly with position. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has two important applications, which we term the assessment application and the objective analysis application. For the assessment application, our approach results in new objective measures of forecast skill which are more in line with subjective measures of forecast skill and which are useful in validating models and diagnosing their shortcomings. With regard to the objective analysis application, meteorological analysis schemes balance forecast error and observational error to obtain an optimal analysis. Presently, representations of the error covariance matrix used to measure the forecast error are severely limited. For the objective analysis application our approach will improve analyses by providing a more realistic measure of the forecast error. We expect, a priori, that our approach should greatly improve the utility of remotely sensed data which have relatively high horizontal resolution, but which are indirectly related to the conventional atmospheric variables. In this project, we are initially focusing on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. Since the forecasts are generated by the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system with and without ERS 1 scatterometer data, these preliminary studies serve several purposes. They (1) provide a testbed for the use of the distortion representation of forecast errors, (2) act as one means of validating the GEOS data assimilation system and (3) help to describe the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer data.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗

Synthesis and Assimilation Systems - Essential Adjuncts to the Observing System

Assimilation systems synthesize diverse in-situ and satellite data streams into full four-dimensional state estimates by combining the strengths of each data set and also of the model. The resulting analysis provides an integrated view of the information in the various observations as well as derived estimates of unobserved quantities. Assimilation systems are particularly important for the ocean where subsurface observations, even today, are sparse and intermittent compared with the scales needed to represent ocean variability and where satellites only sense the surface. Increasingly, models and assimilation systems are being used to provide information about the current observing system and to help in the design plans for new observations. Whether it is as a user of observations or a contributor to evaluation of the observing system, ocean synthesis and assimilation systems are now an integral part of the global ocean observing and information system. Major advances have been made over the last decade under the auspices of WCRP's Climate Variability and Predictability Project (CLIVAR) and the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE). In addition to advances in the assimilation systems, there have been major developments in the observing system, with satellite altimetry, the tropical moored buoy arrays in the Pacific and Atlantic, and more recently Argo. These developments have led to significant advances in our understanding and prediction of ocean variations at both mesoscale and climate scales. Many challenges remain. Some of these challenges lie in the observations themselves, some in the assimilation systems that, even in the more recent era of unprecedented observations from satellite altimetry and Argo, provide different views of climate variations. Yet there are many examples of successful applications from ocean assimilation products. Use of these systems for assessing the observing system helps identify the strengths of each observation type, and indicates that none of the current observations is redundant. Indeed, the indication is that the ocean remains under-sampled and that further improvements in the observing system are needed for both climate monitoring and prediction. Future developments will be increasingly towards consistent analyses across components of the Earth system using, e.g., coupled atmosphere-ocean models.

Rienecker, Michele M.↗

Applications of VIC for Climate Land Cover Change Imapacts

Study focuses on the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), the LMB is an economically and ecologically important region: (1) One of the largest exporters of rice and fish products, (2) Within top three most biodiverse river basins in the world. Natural climate variability plays an important role in water supply within the region: (1) Short-term climate variability (ENSO, MJO), (2) Long-term climate variability (climate change). Projections of climate change show there will be a decrease in water availability world wide which has implications for food security and ecology. Additional studies show there may be socioeconomic turmoil due to water wars and food security in developing regions such as the Mekong Basin. Southeast Asia has experienced major changes in land use and land cover from 1980 – 2000. Major economic reforms resulting in shift from subsistence farming to market-based agricultural production. Changes in land cover continue to occur which have an important role within the land surface aspect of hydrology.

remote sensing↗

AgMIP Regional Activities in a Global Framework: The Brazil Experience

Climate variability and change are projected to increate the frequency of extreme high-temperature events, floods, and droughts, which can lead to subsequent changes in soil moister in many locations (Alexandrov and Hoogenboom, 2000). In Brazil, observations reveal a tendency for increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events particularly in south Brazil (Alexander et al., 2006; Carvalho et al., 2014; Groissman et al., 2005), as well as projections for increasing extremes in both maximum and minimum temperatures and high spatial variability for rainfall under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios (Marengo et al., 2009).

climate change↗

Past and Future Drought in Mongolia

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.

drought projection↗

Biological-Physical Coupling in the Gulf of Maine: Satellite and Model Studies of Phytoplankton Variability

The goals of this project were to acquire, process, QC, archive and analyze SeaWiFS chlorophyll fields over the Gulf of Maine and Scotia Shelf region. The focus of the analysis effort was to calculate and quantify seasonality and interannual. variability of SeaWiFS-measured phytoplankton biomass in the study area and compare these to physical forcing and hydrography. An additional focus within this effort was on regional differences within the heterogeneous biophysical regions of the Gulf of Maine / Scotia Shelf. Overall goals were approached through the combined use of SeaWiFS and AVHRR data and the development of a coupled biology-physical numerical model.

Thomas, Andrew C.↗

Projected technological requirements for remote sensing of terrain variables

Contributions of remote sensing to hydrogeomorphology and terrain analysis are reviewed in order to identify characteristics that should receive support in system and sensor configuration planning. Fluvial morphological studies, peak discharge modeling, and hydrogeomorphic floodplain mapping using large scale (1:12,000) to small scale (1:750,000) orbital photography are discussed as well as quantitative assessment of terrain variables for specific applications.

Hutchinson, C. F.↗

The Development of a New Model of Solar EUV Irradiance Variability

The goal of this research project is the development of a new model of solar EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) irradiance variability. The model is based on combining differential emission measure distributions derived from spatially and spectrally resolved observations of active regions, coronal holes, and the quiet Sun with full-disk solar images. An initial version of this model was developed with earlier funding from NASA. The new version of the model developed with this research grant will incorporate observations from SoHO as well as updated compilations of atomic data. These improvements will make the model calculations much more accurate.

Warren, Harry↗