Increasing plant water stress and decreasing summer streamflow in response to a warmer and wetter climate in seasonally snow-covered forests
Not provided.
Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “vegetation water stress”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Ecosystem-Level Energy and Water Budgets Are Resilient to Canopy Mortality in Sparse Semiarid Biomes
Climate-driven woody vegetation mortality is a defining feature of semiarid biomes that drives fundamental changes in ecosystem structure. However, the observed impacts of woody mortality on ecosystem-scale energy and water budgets and the responses of surviving vegetation are highly variable among studies in water-limited environments. A previous girdling manipulation experiment in a piñon-juniper woodland suggested that although ecosystem-scale evapotranspiration was not altered by large-scale piñon mortality, soil water content decreased and the surviving juniper experienced greater water stress than juniper in an undisturbed woodland. Here we experimentally explored to what extent mortality-induced changes in energy balance components can explain these results. We compared energy fluxes measured above two adjacent piñon-juniper woodlands where piñon girdling was implemented at one site and the other subsequently experienced large-scale natural piñon mortality. We found that the mortality-induced decrease in canopy area was not sufficient to alter surface reflectance, roughness, and partitioning between energy budget components at both sites. A radiative transfer model estimated that because of the sparse premortality canopy, surface reflectance is more sensitive to a large increase in understory leaf area than further loss of crown area. Increased water stress in the remaining juniper following both mortality events can be explained by an increase in radiation on the ground that promoted higher soil temperature and evaporation. We found similar responses of ecosystem and tree-level functions to both girdling and natural mortality. This suggests that girdling is an appropriate approach to explore the impact of tree mortality on ecosystem structure, function, and energy balance.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
High-shade dryland agrivoltaic conditions enhanced carbon uptake and water-use efficiency in zucchini ( Cucurbita pepo )
Introduction: The increasing global demand for food and energy is intensifying land-use competition. Agrivoltaic systems are a multifunctional land-use approach that vertically integrates the production of agricultural crops and solar power on the same land area. Most food crops are adapted to full-sun conditions, and the physiological responses of these crops to the novel microclimate under solar panels remain poorly understood. We hypothesized that the microclimate beneath the high-density photovoltaic system would influence carbon uptake, water use, and yield outcomes of zucchini summer squash.Methods: We conducted a field experiment in a hot, semi-arid climate on zucchini (Cucurbita pepo). Plants were grown under an agrivoltaic system with a 75% ground cover ratio (GCR) and in a full-sun control plot, each with two irrigation regimes (100 and 50%). We measured leaf-level photosynthesis, microclimate variables, and fruit yield at plant maturity and throughout the growing season.Results: The agrivoltaic array reduced photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) by ~79%, resulting in a cooler (−1.1 °C), more humid environment with higher soil moisture. These microclimatic conditions enhanced midday photosynthesis and daily cumulative carbon uptake. However, fruit yield was consistently lower under the panels, indicating a shift in carbon allocation toward vegetative growth. Photosynthesis was primarily driven by PAR across treatments, while soil moisture significantly influenced photosynthesis only in the control plots, suggesting water limitation was alleviated under the panels.Discussion: These findings highlight a trade-off between improved physiological performance and reduced yield under high-density agrivoltaics. While the system buffered heat and drought stress and improved overall plant function, excessive shade reduced reproductive output. Optimizing panel density or selecting crops cultivated for non-fruit yields will be essential for balancing food production and energy generation in dryland agrivoltaic settings.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Asymmetric response of Amazon forest water and energy fluxes to wet and dry hydrological extremes reveals onset of a local drought-induced tipping point
Understanding the effects of intensification of Amazon basin hydrological cycling—manifest as increasingly frequent floods and droughts—on water and energy cycles of tropical forests is essential to meeting the challenge of predicting ecosystem responses to climate change, including forest “tipping points”. Here, we investigated the impacts of hydrological extremes on forest function using 12+ years of observations (between 2001–2020) of water and energy fluxes from eddy covariance, along with associated ecological dynamics from biometry, at the Tapajós National Forest. Measurements encompass the strong 2015–2016 El Niño drought and La Niña 2008–2009 wet events. We found that the forest responded strongly to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Drought reduced water availability for evapotranspiration ( ET ) leading to large increases in sensible heat fluxes ( H ). Partitioning ET by an approach that assumes transpiration ( T ) is proportional to photosynthesis, we found that water stress-induced reductions in canopy conductance ( G s ) drove T declines partly compensated by higher evaporation ( E ). By contrast, the abnormally wet La Niña period gave higher T and lower E , with little change in seasonal ET . Both El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events resulted in changes in forest structure, manifested as lower wet-season leaf area index. However, only during El Niño 2015–2016, we observed a breakdown in the strong meteorological control of transpiration fluxes (via energy availability and atmospheric demand) because of slowing vegetation functions (via shutdown of G s and significant leaf shedding). Drought-reduced T and G s , higher H and E , amplified by feedbacks with higher temperatures and vapor pressure deficits, signaled that forest function had crossed a threshold, from which it recovered slowly, with delay, post-drought. In conclusion, identifying such tipping point onsets (beyond which future irreversible processes may occur) at local scale is crucial for predicting basin-scale threshold-crossing changes in forest energy and water cycling, leading to slow-down in forest function, potentially resulting in Amazon forests shifting into alternate degraded states.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Divergent species-specific impacts of whole ecosystem warming and elevated CO 2 on vegetation water relations in an ombrotrophic peatland
Boreal peatland forests have relatively low species diversity and thus impacts of climate change on one or more dominant species could shift ecosystem function. Despite abundant soil water availability, shallowly rooted vascular plants within peatlands may not be able to meet foliar demand for water under drought or heat events that increase vapor pressure deficits while reducing near surface water availability, although concurrent increases in atmospheric CO 2 could buffer resultant hydraulic stress. We assessed plant water relations of co-occurring shrub (primarily Rhododendron groenlandicum and Chamaedaphne calyculata) and tree (Picea mariana and Larix laricina) species prior to, and in response to whole ecosystem warming (0 to +9°C) and elevated CO 2 using 12.8-m diameter open-top enclosures installed within an ombrotrophic bog. Water relations (water potential [Ψ], turgor loss point, foliar and root hydraulic conductivity) were assessed prior to treatment initiation, then Ψ and peak sap flow (trees only) assessed after 1 or 2 years of treatments. Under the higher temperature treatments, L. laricina Ψ exceeded its turgor loss point, increased its peak sap flow, and was not able to recover Ψ overnight. In contrast, P. mariana operated below its turgor loss point and maintained constant Ψ and sap flow across warming treatments. Similarly, C. calyculata Ψ stress increased with temperature while R. groenlandicum Ψ remained at pretreatment levels. The more anisohydric behavior of L. laricina and C. calyculata may provide greater net C uptake with warming, while the more conservative P. mariana and R. groenlandicum maintained greater hydraulic safety. These latter species also responded to elevated CO 2 by reduced Ψ stress, which may also help limit hydraulic failure during periods of extreme drought or heat in the future. Along with Sphagnum moss, the species-specific responses of peatland vascular communities to drier or hotter conditions will shape boreal peatland composition and function in the future.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Studying drought-induced forest mortality using high spatiotemporal resolution evapotranspiration data from thermal satellite imaging
Drought can have pervasive and wide-spread impacts to forest health, as evidenced in several severe events occurring over the recent decades. Extensive forest die-off due to drought can impair the ecological functioning of forests, impacting habitat, water yield and quality from forested lands, and altering forest fire dynamics and intensity. Satellite remote sensing provides an effective means for detecting and monitoring spatial patterns of forest mortality over large areas, exploiting free and open long-term image archives available at a range in spatial and temporal resolutions. While remotely sensed surface reflectances and vegetation indices have been widely used to study optical response of forest canopies to drought events, retrievals of evapotranspiration (ET) derived from thermal satellite imagery – particularly at resolutions approaching crown scale - can provide insights into cumulative tree stresses that can incite disease and trigger mortality. In this study, we applied a multi-sensor satellite data fusion approach to estimate daily 30-m resolution ET and an associated Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) to study drought-induced mortality in a temperate forest at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site, located in the central United States. The study covered the period from 2010 to 2014, including an exceptional drought year of 2012. Modeled ET agreed well with eddy flux measurements from the MOFLUX tower, with average monthly relative errors of 15%. Plot-scale ESI, describing temporal anomalies in the ratio of actual-to-reference ET, was used as an index of relative forest health to investigate relationships between forest mortality and drought severity. ESI showed good agreement with observed predawn leaf water potential, especially during the drought year. Furthermore, plot-scale ESI was also correlated with the subsequent year's tree mortality, suggesting the importance of considering the forest health condition prior to drought when studying drought-induced forest impacts. This study demonstrates the utility of multi-year ET remote sensing data at the stand or plot scale as an indicator of forest health and as a predictor of future mortality due to drought.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Global maximum carboxylation rate trait scaling in the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model 1901-2012
This data package contains model output data and climate input data associated with the New Phytologist publication: Walker, A.P., Quaife, T., van Bodegom, P.M., De Kauwe, M.G., Keenan, T.F., Joiner, J., Lomas, M.R., MacBean, N., Xu, C., Yang, X., Woodward, F.I., 2017. The impact of alternative trait-scaling hypotheses for the maximum photosynthetic carboxylation rate (Vcmax) on global gross primary production. New Phytologist 215, 1370–1386. https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.14623. This dataset contains maximum carboxylation rate at 25 ºC (Vcmax,25), Gross Primary Production (GPP), Net Biome Production (NBP), vegetation carbon, and soil carbon data from Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM) for multiple trait-scaling methods for scaling Vcmax,25 across Earth, and alternative instantaneous temperature scaling functions. Vcmax,25 values are mean top-leaf values taken during the growing seasons, which were defined as periods during which leaf area index (LAI) was greater than one. Vcmax,25 values were reported prior to scaling of Vcmax by water-stress or leaf-age. The attached metadata file (SDGVM_vcmax_dataset.docx) describes the methods used and explains the organization of data within the included .zip file. This metadata file is also included in PDF format.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A Modified Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) for the Eastern USA and Canada, Evaluated With Comparison to Atmospheric Observations and Other Biospheric Models
Atmospheric CO 2 measurements from a dense surface network can help to evaluate terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) with two key benefits. First, gridded CO 2 flux estimates can be evaluated over regional scales, not possible using flux tower observations at discrete locations for model evaluation. Second, TBM ability to explain atmospheric CO 2 fluctuations due to the biosphere can be directly tested, an important objective for anthropogenic emissions monitoring using atmospheric observations. Here, we customize the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) for an eastern North American domain with strong biological activity upwind of urban areas. Parameters are optimized using flux tower observations from a historical database with sites in (and near) the domain. In addition, the respiration model (originally a linear function of temperature) is modified to account for impacts of changing foliage, non-linear temperature, and water stress. Flux estimates from VPRM, the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model and the Simple Biosphere Model v4 (SiB4), are convolved with footprints from atmospheric transport models for evaluation with CO 2 observations at 21 towers in the domain, with roughly half of the towers used here for the first time. Results show that the new respiration model in VPRM helps to correct a growing season sink bias in the atmosphere associated with underestimated summertime respiration using the original model with annual parameters. The new VPRM also better explains fine-scale atmospheric CO 2 variability compared to other TBMs, due to higher resolution diagnostic phenology, the new respiration model, domain-specific parameters, and high-quality input data sets.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Bark beetle impacts on forest evapotranspiration and its partitioning
Insect outbreaks affect forest structure and function and represent a major category of forest disturbance globally. However, the resulting impacts on evapotranspiration (ET), and especially hydrological partitioning between the abiotic (evaporation) and biotic (transpiration) components of total ET, are not well constrained. As a result, we combined remote sensing, eddy covariance, and hydrological modeling approaches to determine the effects of bark beetle outbreak on ET and its partitioning at multiple scales throughout the Southern Rocky Mountain Ecoregion (SRME), USA. At the eddy covariance measurement scale, 85 % of the forest was affected by beetles, and water year ET as a fraction of precipitation (P) decreased by 30 % relative to a control site, with 31 % greater reductions in growing season transpiration relative to total ET. At the ecoregion scale, satellite remote sensing masked to areas of >80 % tree mortality showed corresponding ET/P reductions of 9–15 % that occurred 6–8 years post-disturbance, and indicated that the majority of the total reduction occurred during the growing season; the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model showed an associated 9–18 % increase in the ecoregion runoff ratio. Long-term (16–18 year) ET and vegetation mortality datasets extend the length of previously published analyses and allowed for clear characterization of the forest recovery period. During that time, transpiration recovery outpaced total ET recovery, which was lagged in part due to persistently reduced winter sublimation, and there was associated evidence of increasing late summer vegetation moisture stress. Overall, comparison of three independent methods and two partitioning approaches demonstrated a net negative impact of bark beetles on ET, and a relatively greater negative impact on transpiration, following bark beetle outbreak in the SRME.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Reduced ecosystem resilience quantifies fine-scale heterogeneity in tropical forest mortality responses to drought
Sensitivity of forest mortality to drought in carbon-dense tropical forests remains fraught with uncertainty, while extreme droughts are predicted to be more frequent and intense. Here, in this study, the potential of temporal autocorrelation of high-frequency variability in Landsat Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), an indicator of ecosystem resilience, to predict spatial and temporal variations of forest biomass mortality is evaluated against in situ census observations for 64 site-year combinations in Costa Rican tropical dry forests during the 2015 ENSO drought. Temporal autocorrelation, within the optimal moving window of 24 months, demonstrated robust predictive power for in situ mortality (leave-one- out cross-validation R 2 = 0.54), which allows for estimates of annual biomass mortality patterns at 30 m resolution. Subsequent spatial analysis showed substantial fine-scale heterogeneity of forest mortality patterns, largely driven by drought intensity and ecosystem properties related to plant water use such as forest deciduousness and topography. Highly deciduous forest patches demonstrated much lower mortality sensitivity to drought stress than less deciduous forest patches after elevation was controlled. Our results highlight the potential of high-resolution remote sensing to “fingerprint” forest mortality and the significant role of ecosystem heterogeneity in forest biomass resistance to drought.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Data from: "Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions"
This archive contains data files that were used to draw conclusions in “Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions”, by Moyes et al., 2015. All field research was completed in common garden plots set up as part of the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA.There are two main data file formats in this archive: comma-separated values (.csv), and Microsoft Excel (.xls and .xlsx). .xlsx files can be read using Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets, and .csv files can be read using any simple text editor program, such as TextEdit (Mac) and Notepad (Windows). This .pdf data user’s guide can be read using Adobe Acrobat Reader, or any other compatible software. Seedling photographs and their corresponding leaf area-processed images are available in .jpg/.JPG image format, and can be opened using Preview (Mac) and Photos (Windows). To provide additional spatial context, two types of geospatial files are also published in this data package: ESRI shapefiles (.shp) and .kml files. Shapefiles are compatible with any GIS software able to read the file type (such as QGIS or ESRI’s ArcGIS suite), and .kml files can be opened with Google Earth or Google Maps. Figures 3 and 4 in the publication contain data from Moyes et al. 2013. This publication is cited in the References section in this archive, and data files can be accessed via the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment project portal on ESS-DIVE. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict.- We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine (Pinus flexilis) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season.- Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15–30% (c. 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions.- Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions drive terrestrial carbon-water trade-offs
Soil moisture is coupled with vegetation and atmosphere, influencing global cycling of water, carbon, and energy. However, it remains unclear how soil moisture-atmosphere interactions affect land-atmosphere carbon and water exchanges simultaneously. Using Earth system model experiments, we show widespread carbon-water trade-offs between net ecosystem production and precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration driven by soil moisture dynamics. Soil moisture positively controls net ecosystem production and negatively affects precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration, through direct soil water stress and indirect soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks. While soil moisture variability magnifies the interannual variability of net ecosystem production, it moderates that of precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration over land. These opposing effects lead to a pronounced carbon-water trade-off, which originates from the interplay between carbon acquisition through photosynthesis and water extraction through evapotranspiration. This trade-off is projected to intensify in a warming and drying future, as soil moisture increasingly regulates carbon and water exchanges, posing a serious challenge to sustaining both terrestrial carbon sink and water supply.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Earlier snowmelt may lead to late season declines in plant productivity and carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra ecosystems
Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO 2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO 2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO 2 later in the season.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Carbon Isotope Composition and the NDVI as Phenotyping Approaches for Drought Adaptation in Durum Wheat: Beyond Trait Selection
High-throughput phenotyping platforms provide valuable opportunities to investigate biomass and drought-adaptive traits. We explored the capacity of traits associated with drought adaptation such as aerial measurements of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and carbon isotope composition (δ13C) determined at the leaf level to predict genetic variation in biomass. A panel of 248 elite durum wheat accessions was grown at the Maricopa Phenotyping platform (US) under well-watered conditions until anthesis, and then irrigation was stopped and plot biomass was harvested about three weeks later. Globally, the δ13C values increased from the first to the second sampling date, in keeping with the imposition of progressive water stress. Additionally, δ13C was negatively correlated with final biomass, and the correlation increased at the second sampling, suggesting that accessions with lower water-use efficiency maintained better water status and, thus, performed better. Flowering time affected NDVI predictions of biomass, revealing the importance of developmental stage when measuring the NDVI and the effect that phenology has on its accuracy when monitoring genotypic adaptation to specific environments. The results indicate that in addition to choosing the optimal phenotypic traits, the time at which they are assessed, and avoiding a wide genotypic range in phenology is crucial.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Detecting Coastal Wetland Degradation by Combining Remote Sensing and Hydrologic Modeling
Sea-level rise and climate change stresses pose increasing threats to coastal wetlands that are vital to wildlife habitats, carbon sequestration, water supply, and other ecosystem services with global significance. However, existing studies are limited in individual sites, and large-scale mapping of coastal wetland degradation patterns over a long period is rare. Our study developed a new framework to detect spatial and temporal patterns of coastal wetland degradation by analyzing fine-scale, long-term remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. Then, this framework was tested to track the degradation of coastal wetlands at the Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge (ARNWR) in North Carolina, United States, during the period from 1995 to 2019. We identified six types of coastal wetland degradation in the study area. Most of the detected degradation was located within 2 km from the shoreline and occurred in the past five years. Further, we used a state-of-the-art coastal hydrologic model, PIHM-Wetland, to investigate key hydrologic processes/variables that control the coastal wetland degradation. The temporal and spatial distributions of simulated coastal flooding and saltwater intrusion confirmed the location and timing of wetland degradation detected by remote sensing. The combined method also quantified the possible critical thresholds of water tables for wetland degradation. The remote sensing–hydrologic model integrated scheme proposed in this study provides a new tool for detecting and understanding coastal wetland degradation mechanisms. Our study approach can also be extended to other coastal wetland regions to understand how climate change and sea-level rise impact wetland transformations.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Data from: "Growth strategies and threshold responses to water deficit modulate effects of warming on tree seedlings from forest to alpine"
This data package contains data that were used to support conclusions drawn in “Growth strategies and threshold responses to water deficit modulate effects of warming on tree seedlings from forest to alpine”, by Lazarus, Castanha et al. 2017. Data were collected at field sites within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA, and at the U.S. Geological Survey laboratory located in Boise, Idaho. This archive contains comma-separated-values (.csv) files, as well as the same files in Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) format, which can be opened by either Microsoft Excel, R, or any simple text editor program. There are two types of geospatial data files: .kml and ESRI shapefiles (.shp). The kml files contain placemarks, which can be opened by Google Earth, or Google Maps. The ESRI shapefiles can be opened by any geographic information system application that can read shapefiles, including ESRI's entire ArcGIS suite, and QGIS. We asked whether and how tree species differences in response to water deficit relates to their establishment along the gradient from forest to alpine. To do this, we compared growth and moisture stress responses in first-year seedlings of three species planted in common gardens subject to a factorial of heating and watering treatments below, at, and above tree line. This combination of an elevation gradient alongside warming and watering treatments enabled us to observe species differences in seedling responses to a broad set of climatic conditions.Entire seedlings were harvested at c. 3- and again at 9 weeks of age following germination/emergence in the experimental plots, and we then measured dry mass (DM) of above and belowground parts, root length, root mass fraction (RMF), relative growth rates (RGRs) from seed to 3 weeks and from 3 to 9 weeks, turgor-loss point (TLP), and photosynthetic WUE (as δ13C). Also included in this dataset (but not described in the manuscript) are measures of specific leaf area (SLA) and other variables generated by pressure-volume curves (saturated water content, osmotic potential at full turgor, elastic modulus).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A coupled hydrologic-agroeconomic modeling framework to evaluate adaptive irrigation strategies under groundwater withdrawal restrictions
Growing groundwater scarcity requires integrated tools to capture interactions among hydrology, agricultural production, markets, and land use. This study presents an iterative modeling framework that couples hydrologic, crop-yield, and economic models to capture two-way feedback among water availability, agricultural production, and market responses under groundwater constraints. The primary goal of this paper is to describe the methodological development of the coupled framework and demonstrate the significance of iterative model interaction. Applied to the western United States, we evaluated adaptive responses to restricting groundwater use beyond recharge levels, represented through changes in irrigation management and expansion or shrinkage of crop markets through land reallocation. Results demonstrate that the iterative coupling converges to stable equilibrium responses within 10 iterations. At equilibrium, deficit irrigation emerges as the dominant adaptation strategy in California, with irrigation levels stabilizing at approximately 70% of full irrigation demand, while Arizona and New Mexico experience stronger yield sensitivities. Early iterations produce commodity price increases of up to 10% for fruit and vegetable crops; however, these responses moderate as land allocation and production patterns adjust across regions. Deficit irrigation and spatial reallocation of irrigated land partially offset production losses, with variability observed across different states: California maintains yields primarily via deficit irrigation, whereas Arizona and New Mexico will rely mainly on reducing irrigated area to absorb the shock. By capturing feedback between biophysical and economic processes, this approach highlights how irrigation strategies and land-use decisions evolve under water stress and provides a transferable platform for evaluating water management policies.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Tracking Seasonal and Interannual Variability in Photosynthetic Downregulation in Response to Water Stress at a Temperate Deciduous Forest
Abstract The understanding and modeling of photosynthetic dynamics affected by climate variability can be highly uncertain. In this paper, we examined a well‐characterized eddy covariance site in a drought‐prone temperate deciduous broadleaf forest combining tower measurements and satellite observations. We find that an increase in spring temperature usually leads to enhanced spring gross primary production (GPP), but a GPP reduction in late growing season due to water limitation. We evaluated how well a coupled fluorescence‐photosynthesis model (SCOPE) and satellite data sets track the interannual and seasonal variations of tower GPP from 2007 to 2016. In SCOPE, a simple stress factor scaling of Vcmax as a linear function of observed predawn leaf water potential ( ψ pd ) shows a good agreement between modeled and measured interannual variations in both GPP and solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment‐2 (GOME‐2). The modeled and satellite‐observed changes in SIF yield are ~30% smaller than corresponding changes in light use efficiency (LUE) under severe stress, for which a common linear SIF to GPP scaling would underestimate the stress reduction in GPP. Overall, GOME‐2 SIF tracks interannual tower GPP variations better than satellite vegetations indices (VIs) representing canopy “greenness.” However, it is still challenging to attribute observed SIF variations unequivocally to greenness or physiological changes due to large GOME‐2 footprint. Higher‐resolution SIF data sets (e.g., TROPOMI) already show the potential to well capture the downregulation of late‐season GPP and could pave the way to better disentangle canopy structural and physiological changes in the future.
He, Liyin↗