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At least 55 records · Page 3

Efficient Clustering of Software Vulnerabilities using Self Organizing Map (SOM)

The common vulnerabilities and exposures (CVE) database was created with a mission to ``identify, define, and catalog publicly disclosed cybersecurity vulnerabilities''. This rich body of information can be used to enable rapid and efficient response to secure and defend cyber operations and protect critical cyber infrastructure. The main goal of this paper is to develop a visual analytics tool to enable deep analysis of CVEs using unsupervised clustering techniques. We enhance our analysis by first mapping CVEs to hierarchical-classes in Common Weakness Enumeration (CWE) using information in the National Vulnerability Database (NVD). Both the mapping and the numerical representation of CVEs are enabled by V2W-BERT, which uses natural language processing of the extensive information in NVD to generate a large tabular database of 137,226 CVE entries from 1999 to 2020, where each CVE is represented by a vector of 768 numerical features. The vectorized data is processed by Self-Organizing Maps (SOM), which is an unsupervised machine learning technique for dimensionality reduction, visual representation and clustering. Using a Torus map of 6417 units, we achieve ~10-fold data compression of ~140k CVEs using SOM. The trained map is further clustered using standard K-means clustering into 138 clusters of CVEs. We conducted a brief investigation of the rich mapping of CVEs to best-matching-units to K-means clusters, as well as CVEs to CWEs. For example, this novel mapping provided insight into the role of CWE-59 and CWE-264 in several CVEs that is otherwise hard to explore in the original data. We conclude that our this novel approach will not only enable deep analysis of the complex relationships between CVEs and CWEs, but also a mechanism to quickly respond to and design mitigation actions for rapidly evolving vulnerabilities that have not been mapped to existing CWEs.

Panchal, Khyati↗

Grid Utility Asset Vulnerability Assessment (GUAVA) Software Tool

Increasing demand and changes in generation portfolios is pushing power grid to operate towards the limit. However, due to lack of analytical tools for understanding various scales of impact on grid, it is becoming more vulnerable to wide scale power outages and blackouts. A vulnerable grid operating at its limit can be easily disrupted by asset failures caused by devastating hurricanes which has been known to damage transmission and distribution lines along its track. In this direction, researchers have focused on determining these assets by conducting Monte Carlo simulations of hurricanes with uncertainties and collected a large set of simulation data. To determine the infrastructure updates necessary for mitigating wide scale impact of hurricanes on the grid, we propose a software tool named “Grid Utility Asset Vulnerability Analysis” (GUAVA) framework. GUAVA presents a novel data-driven probabilistic analytical approach to (1) post-process hurricane failure scenarios, (2) identify/rank assets that are most vulnerable and critical to failing and are associated with highest impact/risk, and (3) to inform system upgrade decisions & prioritization. Based on the observed results and employed data-driven methodology, it is expected GUAVA can be adapted to provide power system planners with a recommendation engine for making informed decisions to improve resilience of grid.

Mahapatra, Kaveri↗

V-INT: Automated Vulnerability Intelligence and Risk Assessment

The project team, including the University of Arkansas (UA) as the lead, the University of Arkansas at Little Rock (UALR), Network Perception (NP), and Bastazo, has successfully researched, developed, and demonstrated the V-INT toolset, and also integrated it into the commercial products of NP (i.e., NP-View) and Bastazo (i.e., Spartan). The end product is a cybersecurity software tool for energy utilities that can automatically assess the risks of software vulnerabilities in an organization’s assets considering the organization’s firewall policies. It allows security operators to identify the small portion of vulnerabilities that poses true threats to their system (i.e., those that are not protected by firewall policies) and prioritize the mitigation of these vulnerabilities to minimize risks. It also allows security operators to identify the vulnerability-induced attack paths under their organization’s firewall policy, providing effective decision supports for mitigating potential attacks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mini Report: LLMs for Vulnerability Repair in Code

Software vulnerability repair is a notoriously difficult task that is both time consuming and labor intensive. While research into this area has a long history, the recent successes of large language models (LLMs) across many tasks have also spurred efforts to leverage LLM capabilities for automated software vulnerability repair. Currently, there are limitations in the capabilities of LLMs to fix bugs and insufficiently addressed problems in the evaluations of these studies may cause performance to not transfer when they are used in practice. Additionally, most research in the area treats finding and fixing bugs as separate concerns - how to best combine all the subtasks involved in removing vulnerabilities from code remains an open question. In this report, we summarize our findings and opinions on the current state of the art in LLM-assisted code vulnerability repair, highlighting current unresolved problems in the field as well as potential applications and future research.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Vulnerability

The discussion of vulnerability begins with a description of some of the electrical characteristics of fibers before definiting how vulnerability calculations are done. The vulnerability results secured to date are presented. The discussion touches on post exposure vulnerability. After a description of some shock hazard work now underway, the discussion leads into a description of the planned effort and some preliminary conclusions are presented.

Taback, I.↗

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

Malin, Jane T.↗

Disturbance Distance: Quantifying Forests' Vulnerability to Disturbance Under Current and Future Conditions

Disturbances, both natural and anthropogenic, are critical determinants of forest structure, function, and distribution. The vulnerability of forests to potential changes in disturbance rates remains largely unknown. Here, we developed a framework for quantifying and mapping the vulnerability of forests to changes in disturbance rates. By comparing recent estimates of observed forest disturbance rates over a sample of contiguous US forests to modeled rates of disturbance resulting in forest loss, a novel index of vulnerability, Disturbance Distance, was produced. Sample results indicate that 20% of current US forestland could be lost if disturbance rates were to double, with southwestern forests showing highest vulnerability. Under a future climate scenario, the majority of US forests showed capabilities of withstanding higher rates of disturbance then under the current climate scenario, which may buffer some impacts of intensified forest disturbance.

Dolan, Katelyn A.↗

Utilizing Airborne and Space-Based Remote Sensing Imagery to Implement the Unvegetated-Vegetated Ratio to Assess Salt Marsh Vulnerability in South Carolina

Among the most productive ecosystems on earth, salt marshes provide crucial ecosystem services including water filtration, shoreline protection, storm surge buffering, and flood mitigation. Marshes are largely dependent on their sediment budget which can significantly vary across a region and can be used to determine the life span of the marsh. Upstream land use change near Charleston, South Carolina, along with rising sea levels, are expected to alter sediment budgets and threaten marsh stability and long-term health. The unvegetated-vegetated ratio (UVVR), developed by researchers at USGS, is a scalable and efficient method to assess vulnerability. The NASA DEVELOP National Program collaborated with the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, and the United States Geological Survey Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center to apply the UVVR method within Google Earth Engine. Marsh vulnerability was analyzed using UVVR derived from clustering and manual interpretation of National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) high-resolution aerial imagery. NAIP derived UVVR was aggregated to Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) resolution and projection. A Random Forest Regression between Landsat derived data and UVVR was modeled to estimate a potential relationship. The estimation of this relationship was used to produce temporal change analysis maps of salt marsh vulnerability back to 1984. The NAIP imagery processed through Google Earth Engine allowed us to make detailed UVVR maps for 2009, 2015, 2017, and 2019 for decision making within South Carolina. Google Earth Engine scripting provided a novel approach to UVVR methodology that will allow decision makers to input new marsh regions and easily calculate marsh vulnerability without external data downloading. These results were used to understand what areas of the marsh need most resource allocation in the future.

NASA DEVELOP↗

Guatemala and Panama Urban Development: Evaluating the Effects of Urban Expansion on Social and Environmental Vulnerability in Guatemala and Panama

Central America is experiencing rapid and unregulated urban expansion, which is contributing to an increase in socioeconomic and environmental risks including inequities in infrastructure and housing accessibility, biodiversity loss, vulnerability to natural disasters, and negative health outcomes. NASA DEVELOP, in partnership with NASA SERVIR, Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA), Secretariat of Central American Social Integration (SISCA), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), and Centro de Coordinación para la Prevención de los Desastres en América Central y República Dominicana (CEPRENEDAC), examined changes in urban extent, characterized roofing material type, and analyzed vulnerability within urban areas in two Central American cities, Guatemala City and Panama City. The team used land cover imagery from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Landsat 9 OLI-2 to map urban extent, and surface reflectance data from Maxar Worldview to identify roofing material types. Socioeconomic and environmental data were used to assess vulnerability. Results depict how the two cities have expanded from 2000 to present day and highlight areas of greatest vulnerability within each urban area. The supervised classification of roofing materials performed well but could be improved with a few enhancements. Findings can help partner organizations improve monitoring of urbanization and inform their planning and decision-making while prioritizing disaster prevention, public health, and environmental integrity. Additionally, these case studies can be used to inform future, similar work elsewhere in Central America to aid in understanding urbanization and its associated challenges.

Jennifer Ruiz↗

Evaluating the Effects of Urban Expansion on Social and Environmental Vulnerability in Guatemala and Panama

Central America is one of the fastest urbanizing regions in the world, with the urban population expected to double by 2050. This growth is driving multiple societal issues, including infrastructure inequities, lack of accessible housing, and environmental degradation. This project partnered with NASA SERVIR, Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), and Centro de Coordinación para la Prevención de los Desastres en América Central y República Dominicana (CEPRENEDAC) to examine changes in urban extent and vulnerability in Guatemala City, Guatemala and Panama City, Panama. The team identified urban extent using Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Landsat 9 OLI-2 within Google Earth Engine’s LandTrendr algorithm. Next, they assessed urban vulnerability between formal and informal settlements by classifying different types of roof material using high-resolution Maxar Worldview 2 and 3 imagery and comparing it to socioeconomic and environmental risks. While both cities have expanded outward and become denser since 2000, Guatemala City has grown at a faster rate. The most vulnerable communities of both cities were located in the northwestern regions. These case studies can be used to inform similar methodologies in other Central American cities and help leaders identify the most vulnerable communities within their areas.

Aaron Whittemore↗

Kentucky Disasters: Multi-Hazard Approach to Mapping Flood Susceptibility and Vulnerability in Kentucky

Flooding is the most common and costly natural disaster in Kentucky, with major flood events in 2022 and 2023 highlighting the need for flood risk assessment. In partnership with the National Weather Service Jackson and Paducah Forecast Offices and the Kentucky Climate Center, we mapped flood risk in Kentucky using a multi-hazard approach that considered two dimensions of risk: flood susceptibility based on a weighted combination of seven physical factors and flood vulnerability based on 13 socioeconomic and infrastructure factors. We additionally analyzed NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) observations of surface soil moisture to explore the utility of SMAP observations for future analysis of flood risk. By analyzing flood susceptibility, we found that with equal rainfall, western Kentucky generally displays a higher propensity to flood than eastern Kentucky. In contrast, our flood vulnerability analysis indicated that more vulnerable areas were generally concentrated in the eastern part of the state. Through a combined perspective, our flood risk analysis identified much of the state as having moderate degrees of flood susceptibility and vulnerability. Our parallel analysis of antecedent soil moisture found that SMAP soil moisture levels were variable in the months leading up to each flood event but were drier than normal in the month prior to the 2023 event, as shown by negative soil moisture anomalies. These results were limited by challenges with weighting input parameters and a lack of validation but overall demonstrate the feasibility of using GIS and Earth observations for mapping flood risk and soil moisture.

analytic hierarchy process↗

Mapping heat vulnerability in cities: A tale of two california cities

Extreme heat is a major cause of weather-related deaths in the United States. To address this, a heat vulnerability index (HVI) is crucial for assessing heat risk and identifying vulnerable urban areas and populations, supporting city planning and emergency response. Current HVI studies often use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on environmental, socioeconomic, and medical data to aggregate vulnerability indicators into a single index. However, these fixed aggregation weights struggle to adapt to different use cases, which may require varying focuses. Moreover, existing tools primarily consider outdoor heat exposure, providing an incomplete picture of actual exposure, as people spend most of their time indoors. Our research introduces an HVI web mapping tool that addresses these gaps in the literature by: (1) allowing flexible weights to adapt to different use cases, and (2) uniquely integrating both outdoor and indoor heat exposure by considering building characteristics for a more comprehensive risk assessment. We demonstrated this tool in two California cities with contrasting climates: Fresno (inland, arid, hot summers) and Oakland (temperate coastal). This HVI mapping tool provides essential decision support for policymakers and stakeholders in both short-term heat mitigation and long-term urban planning for building interventions and infrastructure development.

BES↗

The role of height–driven constraints and compensations on tree vulnerability to drought

Frequent observations of higher mortality in larger trees than in smaller ones during droughts have sparked an increasing interest in size–dependent drought–induced mortality. However, the underlying physiological mechanisms are not well understood, with height–associated hydraulic constraints often being implied as the potential mechanism driving increased drought vulnerability. Here we performed a quantitative synthesis on how key traits that drive plant water and carbon economy change with tree height within species and assessed the implications that the different constraints and compensations may have on the interacting mechanisms (hydraulic failure, carbon starvation and/or biotic–agent attacks) affecting tree vulnerability to drought. While xylem tension increases with tree height, taller trees present a range of structural and functional adjustments, including more efficient water use and transport and greater water uptake and storage capacity, that mitigate the path–length–associated drop in water potential. These adaptations allow taller trees to withstand episodic water stress. Conclusive evidence for height–dependent increased vulnerability to hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, and their coupling to defence mechanisms and pest and pathogen dynamics, is still lacking. Further research is needed, particularly at the intraspecific level, to ascertain the specific conditions and thresholds above which height hinders tree survival under drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Identifying spatiotemporal patterns in opioid vulnerability: investigating the links between disability, prescription opioids and opioid-related mortality

Background: The opioid crisis remains one of the most daunting and complex public health problems in the United States. This study investigates the national epidemic by analyzing vulnerability profiles of three key factors: opioid-related mortality rates, opioid prescription dispensing rates, and disability rank ordered rates. Methods: This study utilizes county level data, spanning the years 2014 through 2020, on the rates of opioid-related mortality, opioid prescription dispensing, and disability. To successfully estimate and predict trends in these opioid-related factors, we augment the Kalman Filter with a novel spatial component. To define opioid vulnerability profiles, we create heat maps of our filter’s predicted rates across the nation’s counties and identify the hotspots. In this context, hotspots are defined on a year-by-year basis as counties with rates in the top 5% nationally. Results: Our spatial Kalman filter demonstrates strong predictive performance. From 2014 to 2018, these predictions highlight consistent spatiotemporal patterns across all three factors, with Appalachia distinguished as the nation’s most vulnerable region. Starting in 2019 however, the dispensing rate profiles undergo a dramatic and chaotic shift. Conclusions: The initial primary drivers of opioid abuse in the Appalachian region were likely prescription opioids; however, it now appears that abuse is sustained by illegal drugs. Additionally, we find that the disabled subpopulation may be more at risk of opioid-related mortality than the general population. Public health initiatives must extend beyond controlling prescription practices to address the transition to and impact of illicit drug use.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Vulnerabilities in Satellite Communications Underscore Threat to Critical Infrastructure

INL analysts assess critical infrastructure sectors leveraging satellite communications (SATCOM) are likely inadvertently increasing the attack surface caused by inherent vulnerabilities in equipment and communications pathways. A lack of ownership regarding security in SATCOM ecosystems creates pervasive information security risk, and the obfuscation of patching responsibility means the mitigation of publicly and privately disclosed vulnerabilities is difficult to track. With these factors in consideration, INL analysts assess the number of attacks against SATCOM is likely to increase in the next decade as threat actors exploit these vulnerabilities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Social Vulnerability and Beacon Hill Resilience Hub Network [Slides]

Improving community resilience to climate change impacts is a core goal of the Beacon Hill stakeholder task force. Developing a network of resilience hubs in the community is a strategy the task force is pursuing to build this resilience. This technical assistance aims to assist the task force in their resilience hub network planning by: identifying hazards that the resilience hubs may address; providing background information on social vulnerability and climate impacts; identifying populations in Beacon Hill who are at risk to disproportionate climate impacts due to social isolation and physical vulnerability characteristics (e.g., lack of transportation or internet); and identifying the potential role of resilience hubs that align with best practices for reducing social vulnerability to climate impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Blueprint: Coordinated Vulnerability Disclosure (CVD) Adoption for Information Sharing and Analysis Center (ISAC)-Like Groups

The electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) industry is an incredibly diverse set of participants (EVSE manufacturers, charge network operators (CNOs), original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), etc.), and with the potential for an Information Sharing and Analysis Centers (ISAC) or ISAC-like group, it requires a series of guidance for doing a multiparty coordinated vulnerability disclosure (CVD) such that a group like this could be successful. This blueprint provides a template and guidance to stakeholders in the EVSE industry for conducting a multiparty CVD. It also formalizes what multiparty CVD could look like in an ISAC-like group with multiple entities as well as vulnerability coordinators by specifically calling out who in the ISAC-like group may be involved, and which industry members it may apply to. This blueprint leverages tools such as Vultron, VINCE, etc. along with open resources such as the Software Engineering Institutes guide for coordinated vulnerability disclosure, for the stakeholder in the EVSE industry to start up a CVD program of their own.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation: Chapter - 5

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work plan, and has been the subject of ongoing work by AgMIP since its creation.

agriculture↗