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At least 55 records · Page 3

The Remarkable 2003-2004 Winter and Other Recent Warm Winters in the Arctic Stratosphere Since the Late 1990s

The 2003-2004 Arctic winter was remarkable in the 40-year record of meteorological analyses. A major warming beginning in early January 2004 led to nearly two months of vortex disruption with high-latitude easterlies in the middle to lower stratosphere. The upper stratospheric vortex broke up in late December, but began to recover by early January, and in February and March was the strongest since regular observations began in 1979. The lower stratospheric vortex broke up in late January. Comparison with two previous years, 1984-1985 and 1986-1987, with prolonged mid-winter warming periods shows unique characteristics of the 2003-2004 warming period: The length of the vortex disruption, the strong and rapid recovery in the upper stratosphere, and the slow progression of the warming from upper to lower stratosphere. January 2004 zonal mean winds in the middle and lower stratosphere were over two standard deviations below average. Examination of past variability shows that the recent frequency of major stratospheric warmings (seven in the past six years) is unprecedented. Lower stratospheric temperatures were unusually high during six of the past seven years, with five having much lower than usual potential for PSC formation and ozone loss (nearly none in 1998-1999, 2001-2002 and 2003-2004, and very little in 1997-1998 and 2000-2001). Middle and upper stratospheric temperatures, however, were unusually low during and after February. The pattern of five of the last seven years with very low PSC potential would be expected to occur randomly once every approximately 850 years. This cluster of warm winters, immediately following a period of unusually cold winters, may have important implications for possible changes in interannual variability and for determination and attribution of trends in stratospheric temperatures and ozone.

Manney, Gloria L.↗

The Remarkable 2003--2004 Winter and Other Recent Warm Winters in the Arctic Stratosphere Since the Late 1990s

The 2003-2004 Arctic winter was remarkable in the approximately 50-year record of meteorological analyses. A major warming beginning in early January 2004 led to nearly 2 months of vortex disruption with high-latitude easterlies in the middle to lower stratosphere. The upper stratospheric vortex broke up in late December, but began to recover by early January, and in February and March was the strongest since regular observations began in 1979. The lower stratospheric vortex broke up in late January. Comparison with 2 previous years, 1984-1985 and 1986-1987, with prolonged midwinter warming periods shows unique characteristics of the 2003-2004 warming period: The length of the vortex disruption, the strong and rapid recovery in the upper stratosphere, and the slow progression of the warming from upper to lower stratosphere. January 2004 zonal mean winds in the middle and lower stratosphere were over 2 standard deviations below average. Examination of past variability shows that the recent frequency of major stratospheric warmings (7 in the past 6 years) is unprecedented. Lower stratospheric temperatures were unusually high during 6 of the past 7 years, with 5 having much lower than usual potential for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation and ozone loss (nearly none in 1998-1999, 2001-2002, and 2003-2004, and very little in 1997-1998 and 2000-2001). Middle and upper stratospheric temperatures, however, were unusually low during and after February. The pattern of 5 of the last 7 years with very low PSC potential would be expected to occur randomly once every 850 years. This cluster of warm winters, immediately following a period of unusually cold winters, may have important implications for possible changes in interannual variability and for determination and attribution of trends in stratospheric temperatures and ozone.

ozone↗

Response of Global Lightning Activity Observed by the TRMM/LIS During Warm and Cold ENSO Phases

This paper investigates the response of global lightning activity to the transition from the warm (January February March-JFM 1998) to the cold (JFM 1999) ENSO phase. The nine-year global lightning climatology for these months from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) provides the observational baseline. Flash rate density is computed on a 5.0x5.0 degree lat/lon grid within the LIS coverage area (between approx.37.5 N and S) for each three month period. The flash rate density anomalies from this climatology are examined for these months in 1998 and 1999. The observed lightning anomalies spatially match the documented general circulation features that accompany the warm and cold ENSO events. During the warm ENSO phase the dominant positive lightning anomalies are located mostly over the Western Hemisphere and more specifically over Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Northern Mid-Atlantic. We further investigate specifically the Northern Mid-Atlantic related anomaly features since these show strong relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Furthermore these observed anomaly patterns show strong spatial agreement with anomalous upper level (200 mb) cold core cyclonic circulations. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies during the warm ENSO phase also affect the lightning activity, but this is mostly observed near coastal environments. Over the open tropical oceans, there is climatologically less lightning and the anomalies are less pronounced. Warm ENSO related anomalies over the Eastern Hemisphere are most prominent over the South China coast. The transition to the cold ENSO phase illustrates the detected lightning anomalies to be more pronounced over East and West Pacific. A comparison of total global lightning between warm and cold ENSO phase reveals no significant difference, although prominent regional anomalies are located over mostly oceanic environments. All three tropical "chimneys" (Maritime Continent, Central Africa, and Amazon Basin) do not show any particular response to this transition.

Chronis, Themis G.↗

Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming

This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.

infrared↗

On-Orbit Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Star Tracker Warm Pixel Analysis

This paper describes the process of identification and analysis of warm pixels in two autonomous star trackers on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. A brief description of the mission orbit and attitude regimes is discussed and pertinent star tracker hardware specifications are given. Warm pixels are defined and the Quality Index parameter is introduced, which can be explained qualitatively as a manifestation of a possible warm pixel event. A description of the algorithm used to identify warm pixel candidates is given. Finally, analysis of dumps of on-orbit star tracker charge coupled devices (CCD) images is presented and an operational plan going forward is discussed. SDO, launched on February 11, 2010, is operated from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). SDO is in a geosynchronous orbit with a 28.5 inclination. The nominal mission attitude points the spacecraft X-axis at the Sun, with the spacecraft Z-axis roughly aligned with the Solar North Pole. The spacecraft Y-axis completes the triad. In attitude, SDO moves approximately 0.04 per hour, mostly about the spacecraft Z-axis. The SDO star trackers, manufactured by Galileo Avionica, project the images of stars in their 16.4deg x 16.4deg fields-of-view onto CCD detectors consisting of 512 x 512 pixels. The trackers autonomously identify the star patterns and provide an attitude estimate. Each unit is able to track up to 9 stars. Additionally, each tracker calculates a parameter called the Quality Index, which is a measure of the quality of the attitude solution. Each pixel in the CCD measures the intensity of light and a warns pixel is defined as having a measurement consistently and significantly higher than the mean background intensity level. A warns pixel should also have lower intensity than a pixel containing a star image and will not move across the field of view as the attitude changes (as would a dim star image). It should be noted that the maximum error introduced in the star tracker attitude solution during suspected warm pixel corruptions is within the specified 36 attitude error budget requirement of [35, 70, 70] arcseconds. Thus, the star trackers provided attitude accuracy within the specification for SDO. The star tracker images are intentionally defocused so each star image is detected in more than one CCD pixel. The position of each star is calculated as an intensity-weighted average of the illuminated pixels. The exact method of finding the positions is proprietary to the tracker manufacturer. When a warm pixel happens to be in the vicinity of a star, it can corrupt the calculation of the position of that particular star, thereby corrupting the estimate of the attitude.

Felikson, Denis↗

Efficacy of Wrist/Palm Warming as an EVA Countermeasure to Maintain Finger Comfort in Cold Conditions During EVA

This study explored the effectiveness of local wrist/palm warming as a potential countermeasure for providing finger comfort during extended duration EVA. Methods: Six subjects (5 males and 1 female) were evaluated in a sagitally divided liquid cooling/warming garment (LCWG) with modified liquid cooling/warming (LCW) gloves in three different experimental conditions. Condition 1: Stage 1- no LCWG; chamber adaptation with LCW glove inlet water temperature 33 C; Stage 2-LCW glove inlet water temperature cooled to 8 C; Stage 3-LCW glove inlet water temperature warmed to 45 C; Condition 2: Stage1-LCWG and LCW glove inlet water temperature 33 C; Stage 2-LCWG inlet temperature cooled to 31 C, LCW gloves, 8 C; Stage 3-LCWG inlet water temperature remains at 31 C, LCW glove inlet water temperature warmed to 45 C; Condition 3: Stage l -LCWG and LCW gloves 33 C; Stage 2-LCWG inlet water temperature cooled to 28 C, LCW gloves, 8 C; Stage 3-LCWG remains at 28 C, LCW glove water temperature warmed to 45 C. Results: Wrist/palm area warming significantly increased finger temperature (Tfing) and blood perfusion in Stage 3 compared to Stage 2. The LCW gloves were most effective in increasing Stage 3 Tfing in Condition 1; and in increasing blood perfusion in Conditions 1 and 2 compared to Condition 3. Ratings of subjective perception of heat in the hand and overall body heat were higher at Stage 3 than Stage 2, with no significant differences across Conditions. Conclusions: Local wrist/palm warming was effective in increasing blood circulation to the distal extremities, suggesting the potential usefulness of this technique for increasing astronaut thermal comfort during EVA while decreasing power requirements. The LCW gloves were effective in heating the highly cooled fingers when the overall body was in a mild heat deficit.

Koscheyev, Victor S.↗

Warming Experiments Underpredict Plant Phenological Responses to Climate Change

Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

phenology↗

Warm Absorber Diagnostics of AGN Dynamics

Warm absorbers and related phenomena are some of the observable manifestations of outflows or winds from active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Warm absorbers are common in low-luminosity AGNs. They have been extensively studied observationally and are well described by simple phenomenological models. However, major open questions remain. What is the driving mechanism? What is the density and geometrical distribution? How much associated fully ionized gas is there? What is the relation to the quasi-relativistic "ultrafast outflows"? In this paper we present synthetic spectra for the observable properties of warm absorber flows and associated quantities. We use ab initio dynamical models, i.e., solutions of the equations of motion for gas in finite difference form. The models employ various plausible assumptions for the origin of the warm absorber gas and the physical mechanisms affecting its motion. The synthetic spectra are presented as an observational test of these models. In this way we explore various scenarios for warm absorber dynamics. We show that observed spectra place certain requirements on the geometrical distribution of the warm absorber gas, and that not all dynamical scenarios are equally successful at producing spectra similar to what is observed.

Kallman, Timothy R.↗

Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5°C Warming

Climate change may have major influences on surface runoff, which would consequently result in important implications for terrestrial ecosystems and human well‐being. At global scale there is limited understanding of these issues with respect to the warming targets stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Here we use a well‐established hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity [VIC]) forced with a representative ensemble of latest climate projections from four global circulation models (GCMs) to estimate potential future changes in runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR), as well as changes in extreme runoff and their impacts on population, and overall gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide. Results suggest that annual runoff generally would have larger increases, while annual TEWR generally would have larger decreases under the 2.0°C warming scenario as opposed to 1.5°C warming scenario. Global mean warming of 2°C versus 1.5°C would lead to more distinct spatial patterns in runoff change, with a general shift of the runoff distribution towards more extreme low runoff in Mexico, western United States, Western Europe, southeastern China, West Siberian Plain and more extreme high runoff in Alaska, northern Canada, and large parts of Asia. More people and GDP would be exposed to extreme low runoff decrease, extreme high runoff increase, extreme low runoff decrease as well as extreme high runoff increase under a higher warming scenario. This study differentiates hydrological impacts between the two warming scenarios and illustrates higher runoff, lower TEWR, larger potential drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and GDP under 2°C than 1.5°C.

Paris Agreement↗

Lapse-Rate Feeback: The Key to Reconciling TOA and Surface Attributions of Surface Warming

The impact of climate feedbacks on surface warming is conventionally evaluated using a decomposition of the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) energy budget. Alternatively, the climate feedback analysis can also be carried out using the surface energy budget. However, the two perspectives do not provide the same interpretation of process contributions to surface warming, particularly when executing a spatial analysis. The TOA energy budget is equal to the sum of the surface and atmospheric energy budgets. Using the CMIP5 RCP 8.5 model projections, we show that the major discrepancies between the surface and TOA climate feedback attributions of surface warming are due to non-negligible changes in the atmospheric energy budget that differ from their counterparts at the surface. Individual radiative and non-radiative processes cause vertically non-uniform energy flux perturbations, in response to an external forcing, that naturally lead to a vertically non-uniform temperature change. The TOA lapse-rate feedback is the manifestation of these multiple processes that produce a vertically non-uniform warming response such that it accounts for the asymmetry between the changes in the atmospheric and surface energy budgets. Using the climate feedback-response analysis method, we can decompose the lapse-rate feedback into contributions by individual processes. The negative lapse-rate feedback in the tropics is due to greater moist convection and condensational heating along with ocean heat storage. On the other hand, the positive lapse-rate feedback in polar regions is primarily due to the surface albedo and water vapor feedbacks. Combining the process contributions that are hidden within the lapse-rate feedback with their respective direct impacts on the TOA energy budget allows for a very consistent picture of process contributions to surface warming and its inter-model spread as that given by the surface energy budget approach. With the modified approach, both perspectives indicate water vapor feedback is the largest contributor in the tropics, while surface albedo feedback is the greatest contributor in polar regions. Dynamics and ocean heat storage are the main suppressors of surface warming, except over Antarctica. Both perspectives show there is large inter-model uncertainty in the contributions of water vapor, clouds, albedo, and dynamics plus ocean heat storage.

Sergio A Sejas↗

Evaluation of Arctic Warming in Mid-Pliocene Climate Simulations

Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90∘ N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 ∘C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 ∘C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to −10.4×106 km2, with a MMM anomaly of −5.6×106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions (≤1×106 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.

Palaeoclimate simulations↗

Volcanic Stratospheric Injections up to 160 Tg(S) Yield a Eurasian Winter Warming Indistinguishable from Internal Variability

Early observational and modeling work suggested that low-latitude volcanic eruptions, comparable to the one of Pinatubo in 1991 or Krakatau in 1883, cause substantial surface warming over the northern continents at mid-latitudes in winter. The proposed mechanism consists of the formation of an anomalously strong Equator-to-pole temperature gradient in the stratosphere due to the presence of volcanic aerosols in the tropics, which are accompanied by an acceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex, which then shifts the Northern Annular Mode into a positive phase, resulting in warming surface temperatures over Eurasia. However, a large body of research in the past decade has shown that, for eruptions such as Pinatubo or Krakatau, no such warming is seen in simulations with more recent climate models which, in general, have much finer vertical and horizontal resolution than the early ones, and which have separated the forced response from the internal variability by using large ensembles of integrations. Since the proposed physical mechanism is sound, it is then possible that eruptions comparable to those of Pinatubo or Krakatau are simply too weak, but even larger ones might indeed be capable of causing Eurasian surface warming in winter. In this study, we explore this possibility using a state-of-the-art, stratosphere-resolving climate model, forced with prescribed aerosols from the Easy Volcanic Aerosol protocol. We consider eruptions with stratospheric sulfur injections of 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, and 160 Tg(S). With 20-member ensembles, we find that with injections of 20 Tg(S) or more – roughly twice the amplitude of the Pinatubo and Krakatau eruptions – our model simulates a winter surface warming over Eurasia, which is statistically significant with a t test given our 20-member ensembles. However, the forced volcanic signal on Eurasian winter surface temperatures is very small, barely exceeding the 1σ range of internal variability for the 160 Tg(S) injection case, and much smaller for smaller eruptions. Most importantly, the number of eruptions needed to establish statistical significance is considerably larger than the number of eruptions known to have occurred in the past 2000 years.

Volcanic eruptions↗

Major and minor stratospheric warmings and their interactions on the troposphere

The evolution of the kinetic and thermal energy associated with the major and minor stratospheric warmings in the winters of 1975-76 and 1976-77 is investigated on the basis of NMC gridded analysis of meteorological data and then related to changes in the stratosphere and troposphere. It is found that the predominant ultra-long waves in the stratosphere oscillated at periods of 10-20 days, while in the troposphere the predominant long waves oscillated at periods of 8 to 12 days and were almost out-of-phase for the major warming. The kinetic energy of the zonal mean flow in the stratosphere for the minor warming is shown to be much greater than that for the major warming, indicating the dependence of the major warming occurrence on the kinetic energy magnitude of the zonal mean flow relative to that of the meridional convergence of the poleward flux of sensible heat.

Koermer, J. P.↗

An investigation of resonant waves in a numerical model of an observed sudden stratospheric warming

A global quasi-linear time-dependent model that is able to represent the interaction of a single planetary Rossby wave with the zonal flow is used to investigate several questions concerning the role of resonance in the major stratospheric warming of February 1979. Special attention is given to the examination of the degree of dependence of the warming development on the phase speed of the wave and the initial mean flow. The results indicate that the preconditioning occurred early in the month, just after the minor sudden warming around February 5-7, and that a fairly broad range of eastward traveling phase speeds was capable of generating a warming. The model sensitivity tests indicate that the warming simulation has a weak dependence on the frequency of wave forcing and on the day used for initializing the basic state.

Smith, Anne K.↗

Mixing processes following the final stratospheric warming

An investigation is made of the dynamics responsible for the mixing and dissolution of the polar vortex during the final stratospheric warmings. The dynamics and transport during a Northern Hemisphere final stratospheric warming are simulated via a GCM and an associated offline N2O transport model. The results are compared with those obtained from LIMS data for the final warming of 1979, with emphasis on the potential vorticity evolution in the two datasets, the modeled N2O evolution, and the observed O3 evolution. Following each warming, the remnants of the originally intact vortex are found to gradually homogenize with the atmosphere at large. Two processes leading to this homogenization are identified following the final warmings, namely, the potential vorticity field becomes decorrelated from that of the chemical tracer, and the vortex remnants begin to tilt dramatically in a vertical direction.

Hess, Peter G.↗

Observations of an arc-shaped cloud band over an oceanographic warm eddy

Observations on January 7 and 8, 1991, of an arc-shaped cloud band outlining an area in the eastern Mediterranean within a warm ocean eddy were made using the NOAA-11 AVHRR. Clouds formed at the edge of the warm eddy's internal boundary layer as the wind traveled at right angles from the colder Aegean water toward the warm eddy. No clouds formed on the southern side of the warm eddy where sea surface temperatures were warmer and where the winds may not have flowed at right angles toward the warm eddy. An upper limit of 24 h was determined for the length of time the arc-shaped cloud stayed over the eddy.

Burnett, William H.↗

Preconditioning for stratospheric sudden warmings - Sensitivity studies with a numerical model

Results are presented of numerical experiments performed to determine what constitutes preconditioning for stratospheric sudden warmings. A number of 20-d runs were performed with a 3D primitive equation model. Runs varied in that they had different (zonally symmetric) initial fields and different lower boundary planetary wave fields, both based on NMC data for particular days. Initial and boundary data were used from the two minor and the sole major sudden warmings of January-February 1979 and some minor and the sole major sudden warmings of January-February 1989. To isolate the properties of the initial conditions from preconditioned cases and those with no warming, hybrid initial fields were created by combining data from two different days, one preconditioned and the other not. Runs with the hybrid initial conditions indicate that it is the lower stratospheric winds that are important in characterizing a preconditioned flow. It is suggested that it would be possible for a preconditioned state to exist for at least a short time without a warming occurring.

Smith, Anne K.↗

Satellite observations of upper-layer variabilities in the western Pacific warm pool

The variabilities of the upper layer of the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) were observed using satellite infrared data from 1982 to 1991 and altimeter data from November 1986 to September 1989. The warm pool was defined as the area where the sea surface temperatures are above 28 C. The eastern boundary oscillation, the centroid movement, and the upper-layer volume variation of the WPWP were intensively studied. Spectral analysis revealed that the eastern boundary oscillation of the WPWP was related to the El Nino event and the annual cycle. The centroid of the WPWP traced an ellipselike trajectory during a year and moved counterclockwise in most years. However, in 1982 and 1986, the years of the onset of El Nino events, the movements were clockwise. The upper-layer volume of the WPWP was divided latitudinally into three sections. The annual cycles in the northern (from 3 deg to 30 deg N) and southern (from 3 deg to 30 deg S) sections were dominant. No annual cycle was found in the equatorial section (from 3 deg S to 3 deg N), but the volume of warm water in the equatorial Pacific increased during the 1986/87 El Nino event. The equatorial section was further divided into the eastern and western sectors along 165 deg W. During the 1986/87 El Nino event, the volume of warm water increased in the eastern sector, but the variation was smaller in the western sector than that in the eastern sector. During the 1988 La Nina event, the warm water volumes decreased in both sectors.

Ho, Chung-Ru↗