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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Using Satellites to Investigate the Sensitivity of Longwave Downward Radiation to Water Vapor at High Elevations

Many studies suggest that high-elevation regions may be among the most sensitive to future climate change. However, in situ observations in these often remote locations are too sparse to determine the feedbacks responsible for enhanced warming rates. One of these feedbacks is associated with the sensitivity of longwave downward radiation (LDR) to changes in water vapor, with the sensitivity being particularly large in many high-elevation regions where the average water vapor is often low. We show that satellite retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) can be used to expand the current ground-based observational database and that the monthly averaged clear-sky satellite estimates of humidity and LDR are in good agreement with the well-instrumented Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies ground-based site in the southwestern Colorado Rocky Mountains. The relationship between MODIS-retrieved precipitable water vapor and surface specific humidity across the contiguous United States was found to be similar to that previously found for the Alps. More important, we show that satellites capture the nonlinear relationship between LDR and water vapor and confirm that LDR is especially sensitive to changes in water vapor at high elevations in several midlatitude mountain ranges. Because the global population depends on adequate fresh water, much of which has its source in high mountains, it is critically important to understand how climate will change there. We demonstrate that satellites can be used to investigate these feedbacks in high-elevation regions where the coverage of surface-based observations is insufficient to do so.

Naud, Catherine M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Anomalous carbonate precipitates: is the Precambrian the key to the Permian?

Late Permian reefs of the Capitan complex, west Texas; the Magnesian Limestone, England; Chuenmuping reef, south China; and elsewhere contain anomalously large volumes of aragonite and calcite marine cements and sea-floor crusts, as well as abundant microbial precipitates. These components strongly influenced reef growth and may have been responsible for the construction of rigid, open reefal frames in which bryozoans and sponges became encrusted and structurally reinforced. In some cases, such as the upper biostrome of the Magnesian Limestone, precipitated microbialites and inorganic crusts were the primary constituents of the reef core. These microbial and inorganic reefs do not have modern marine counterparts; on the contrary, their textures and genesis are best understood through comparison with the older rock record, particularly that of the early Precambrian. Early Precambrian reefal facies are interpreted to have formed in a stratified ocean with anoxic deep waters enriched in carbonate alkalinity. Upwelling mixed deep and surface waters, resulting in massive seafloor precipitation of aragonite and calcite. During Mesoproterozoic and early Neoproterozoic time, the ocean became more fully oxidized, and seafloor carbonate precipitation was significantly reduced. However, during the late Neoproterozoic, sizeable volumes of deep ocean water once again became anoxic for protracted intervals; the distinctive "cap carbonates" found above Neoproterozoic tillites attest to renewed upwelling of anoxic bottom water enriched in carbonate alkalinity and 12C. Anomalous late Permian seafloor precipitates are interpreted as the product, at least in part, of similar processes. Massive carbonate precipitation was favored by: 1) reduced shelf space for carbonate precipitation, 2) increased flux of Ca to the oceans during increased continental erosion, 3) deep basinal anoxia that generated upwelling waters with elevated alkalinities, and 4) further evolution of ocean water in the restricted Delaware, Zechstein, and other basins. Temporal coincidence of these processes resulted in surface seawater that was greatly supersaturated by Phanerozoic standards and whose only precedents occurred in Precambrian oceans.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2003

Interactions of Water Vapor with Oxides at Elevated Temperatures

Many volatile metal hydroxides form by reaction of the corresponding metal oxide with water vapor. These reactions are important in a number of high temperature corrosion processes. Experimental methods for studying the thermodynamics of metal hydroxides include: gas leak Knudsen cell mass spectrometry, free jet sampling mass spectrometry, transpiration and hydrogen-oxygen flame studies. The available experimental information is reviewed and the most stable metal hydroxide species are correlated with position in the periodic table. Current studies in our laboratory on the Si-O-H system are discussed.

Jacobson, Nathan↗
NASA NTRS2011

Characterization of Terrestrial Water Dynamics in the Congo Basin Using GRACE and Satellite Radar Altimetry

The Congo Basin is the world's third largest in size (approx.3.7 million sq km), and second only to the Amazon River in discharge (approx.40,200 cu m/s annual average). However, the hydrological dynamics of seasonally flooded wetlands and floodplains remains poorly quantified. Here, we separate the Congo wetland into four 3deg 3deg regions, and use remote sensing measurements (i.e., GRACE, satellite radar altimeter, GPCP, JERS-1, SRTM, and MODIS) to estimate the amounts of water filling and draining from the Congo wetland, and to determine the source of the water. We find that the amount of water annually filling and draining the Congo wetlands is 111 cu km, which is about one-third the size of the water volumes found on the mainstem Amazon floodplain. Based on amplitude comparisons among the water volume changes and timing comparisons among their fluxes, we conclude that the local upland runoff is the main source of the Congo wetland water, not the fluvial process of river-floodplain water exchange as in the Amazon. Our hydraulic analysis using altimeter measurements also supports our conclusion by demonstrating that water surface elevations in the wetlands are consistently higher than the adjacent river water levels. Our research highlights differences in the hydrology and hydrodynamics between the Congo wetland and the mainstem Amazon floodplain.

Lee, Hyongki↗
NASA NTRS2011

Characterization of Terrestrial Water Dynamics in the Congo Basin Using GRACE and Satellite Radar Altimetry

The Congo Basin is the world's third largest in size (approximately 3.7 million km^2), and second only to the Amazon River in discharge (approximately 40,200 cms annual average). However, the hydrological dynamics of seasonally flooded wetlands and floodplains remains poorly quantified. Here, we separate the Congo wetland into four 3 degree x 3 degree regions, and use remote sensing measurements (i.e., GRACE, satellite radar altimeter, GPCP, JERS-1, SRTM, and MODIS) to estimate the amounts of water filling and draining from the Congo wetland, and to determine the source of the water. We find that the amount of water annually filling and draining the Congo wetlands is 111 km^3, which is about one-third the size of the water volumes found on the mainstem Amazon floodplain. Based on amplitude comparisons among the water volume changes and timing comparisons among their fluxes, we conclude that the local upland runoff is the main source of the Congo wetland water, not the fluvial process of river-floodplain water exchange as in the Amazon. Our hydraulic analysis using altimeter measurements also supports our conclusion by demonstrating that water surface elevations in the wetlands are consistently higher than the adjacent river water levels. Our research also highlights differences in the hydrology and hydrodynamics between the Congo wetland and the mainstem Amazon floodplain.

Lee, Lyongki↗
NASA NTRS2021

NASA’s MODIS/VIIRS Global Water Reservoir Product Suite from Moderate Resolution Remote Sensing Data

Global reservoir information can not only benefit local water management but can also improve our understanding of the hydrological cycle. This information includes water area, elevation, and storage; evaporation rate and volume values; and other characteristics. However, operational wall-to-wall reservoir storage and evaporation monitoring information is lacking on a global scale. Here we introduce NASA’s new MODIS/VIIRS Global Water Reservoir product suite based on moderate resolution remote sensing data—the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). This product consists of 8-day (MxD28C2 and VNP28C2) and monthly (MxD28C3 and VNP28C3) measurements for 164 large reservoirs (MxD stands for the product from both Terra (MOD) or Aqua (MYD) satellites). The 8-day product provides area, elevation, and storage values, which were generated by first extracting water areas from surface reflectance data and then applying the area estimations to the pre-established Area–Elevation (A–E) relationships. These values were then further aggregated to monthly, with the evaporation rate and volume information added. The evaporation rate and volume values were calculated after the Lake Temperature and Evaporation Model (LTEM) using MODIS/VIIRS land surface temperature product and meteorological data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Validation results show that the 250 m area classifications from MODIS agree well with the high-resolution classifications from Landsat (R^(2) = 0.99). Validation of elevation and storage products for twelve Indian reservoirs show good agreement in terms of R^(2) values (0.71–0.96 for elevation, and 0.79–0.96 for storage) and normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE) values (5.08–19.34% for elevation, and 6.39–18.77% for storage). The evaporation rate results for two reservoirs (Lake Nasser and Lake Mead) agree well with in situ measurements (R^(2) values of 0.61 and 0.66, and NRMSE values of 16.25% and 21.76%). Furthermore, preliminary results from the VIIRS reservoir product have shown good consistency with the MODIS based product, confirming the continuity of this 20-year product suite. This new global water reservoir product suite can provide valuable information with regard to water-sources-related studies, applications, management, and hydrological modeling and change analysis such as drought monitoring.

Yao Li↗
NASA NTRS1990

Elevator deflections on the icing process

The effect of elevator deflection of the horizontal stabilizer for certain icing parameters is investigated. Elevator deflection can severely change the lower and upper leading-edge impingement limits, and ice can accrete on the elevator itself. Also, elevator deflection had practically no effect on the maximum local collection efficiency. It is shown that for severe icing conditions (large water droplets), elevator deflections that increase the projected height of the airfoil can significantly increase the total collection efficiency of the airfoil.

Britton, Randall K.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Effects of Water on the Density and Elevation of Tesserae on Venus

While the current conditions on Venus are inhospitable, with surface temperatures of ~ 470 °C, pressures of 92 bars, and a CO 2 dominated atmosphere, early Venus may have had a more temperate climate with water on the surface. Water is not only crucial to understanding the habitability potential of Venus, but also has major implications for the tectonic regime and thermal evolution of a planet. Tesserae are believed to be the oldest exposed features on the surface of Venus and may have formed during a period with higher water content. Some of this water might have been preserved as hydrous minerals in the Venusian subsurface. The presence of these minerals has an effect on the density profiles and isostatic behaviour of the tesserae and therefore requires a more detailed investigation. Here we will present results of phase equilibria and isostasy modelling on a range of Tesserae-analogue rock compositions with varying water content and along a range of potential thermal gradients. We compare our results to anhydrous models performed previously under similar thermal regime to constrain the conditions (rock composition, thermal gradient, and water content) needed for tesserae stability.

A R Baker↗
NASA NTRS1992

Sources of nitric oxide and nitrous oxide following wetting of dry soil

A study is presented which is aimed at distinguishing among autotrophic nitrification, denitrification, and abiological processes as sources of NO and N2O production following wetting of dry soil. To distinguish among these processes, combinations of treatments in laboratory incubations of soil were used which included varying soil water content, autoclaving, C2H2 inhibition, and NO2(-) addition. Biological sources of NO and N2O commenced within minutes of wetting dry soil. Acetylene inhibition revealed that emissions of NO were dependent on nitrification, although a combination of NO2(-) production by nitrifiers and abiological reduction of NO2(-) to NO is also possible. NO emissions exceeded N2O emissions, and nitrification was the dominant source of both gases when soil water was below field capacity. It is concluded that NO emissions appear to be more important when good soil aeration favors nitrification, whereas N2O emissions appear more important when elevated soil water favors denitrification.

Davidson, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2026

Remote Sensing-Driven Hydrodynamic Modeling in Data-Scarce Regions: Integrating ICESat-2, Sentinel-2, SWOT and Re-analysis Models for Coastal Monitoring

Hydrodynamic models in coastal and estuarine systems are typically constrained by sparse bathymetry, boundary, and validation data, especially in regions where field campaigns are costly or impractical. Here we develop and test a fully satellite-driven framework for hydrodynamic modeling in South Africa’s Langebaan Lagoon without using any local in situ measurements. Bathymetry is derived by training multispectral Sentinel-2 reflectance against ICESat-2 ATL24 photon-derived depths using an XGBoost model optimized with Bayesian search. The final satellite-derived bathymetry reproduces independent ATL24 points with RMSE = 0.45 m and R 2 = 0.97. This bathymetry was used in a depth-averaged Delft3D Flexible Mesh model driven at the open boundary by TPXO tidal harmonics and by ERA5 winds. We validate modeled water surface elevation against 16 SWOT low-rate (250 m, unsmoothed) passes in 2023. SWOT–model comparisons yield an overall RMSE of 0.11 m and R 2 = 0.61, with typical point differences <0.10 m (∼7% of the 1.5 m tidal range), and showed consistent spatial gradients in water level from the offshore boundary, through Saldanha Bay, and into the lagoon. At the offshore boundary, TPXO and SWOT sea surface heights agree closely (R 2 = 0.86). A simple phase adjustment of ∼26,min between TPXO and SWOT lowers the RMSE from 0.18,m to 0.11,m, showing that phase offset accounts for some of the discrepancy, with additional errors likely linked to non-tidal signals. Our results demonstrate that combining passive optical, photon-counting LiDAR, radar interferometry, and global tidal/atmospheric models enables robust, transferrable hydrodynamic modeling in data-scarce coastal systems, offering a cost-effective pathway for monitoring.

ICESat-2↗
NASA NTRS1985

Field and airborne spectral characterization of suspected damage in red spruce (picea rubens) from Vermont

The utilization of remote sensing to monitor forest damage due to acid deposition is investigated. Spectral and water measurements and aircraft radiance data of red spruce and balsam fir, collected in Camels Hump Mountain and Ripton, Vermont between August 13-20, 1984, are analyzed to evaluate the damage levels of the trees. Variations in reflectance features and canopy moisture content are studied. It is observed that damage correlates with elevation (greater damage at higher elevations); xylem water column tension is greater at higher damage sites; and a 'blue shift' is indicated in the spectral data at high damage sites.

Rock, B. N.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Mechanical Testing of PMCs under Simulated Rapid Heat-Up Propulsion Environments: In-Plane Compressive Behavior - II

Carbon fiber thermoset polymer matrix composites (PMC) with high temperature polyimide based in-situ polymerized monomer reactant (PMR) resin has been used for some time in applications which can see temperatures up to 550 F. Currently, graphite fiber PMR based composites are used in several aircraft engine components including the outer bypass duct for the GE F-404, exit flaps for the P&W F-100-229, and the core cowl for the GE/Snecma CF6-80A3. Newer formulations, including PMR-II-50 are being investigated as potential weight reduction replacements of various metallic components in next generation high performance propulsion rocket engines that can see temperatures which exceed 550 F. Extensive FEM thermal modeling indicates that these components are exposed to rapid heat-up rates (up to -200 F/sec) and to a maximum temperature of around 600 F. Even though the predicted maximum part temperatures were within the capability of PW-II-50, the rapid heat-up causes significant through-thickness thermal gradients in the composite part and even more unstable states when combined with moisture. Designing composite parts for such extreme service environments will require accurate measurement of intrinsic and transient mechanical properties and the hygrothermal performance of these materials under more realistic use conditions. The mechanical properties of polymers degrade when exposed to elevated temperatures even in the absence of gaseous oxygen. Accurate mechanical characterization of the material is necessary in order to reduce system weight while providing sufficient factors of safety. Historically, the testing of PMCs at elevated temperatures has been plagued by the antagonism between two factors. First, moisture has been shown to profoundly affect the mechanical response of these materials at temperatures above their glass transition temperature while concurrently lowering the material's Tg. Moisture phenomena is due to one or a combination of three effects, i.e., plastization of polymeric material by water, the internal pressure generated by the volatilization of water at elevated temperatures, and hydrolytic chemical decomposition. However, moisture is lost from the material at increasing rates as temperature increases. Second, because PMCs are good thermal insulators, when they are externally heated at even mild rates large thermal gradients can develop within the material. At temperatures where a material property changes rapidly with temperature the presence of a large thermal gradient is unacceptable for intrinsic property characterization purposes. Therefore, long hold times are required to establish isothermal conditions. However, in the service environments high-heating-rates, high temperatures, high-loading rates are simultaneous present along with residual moisture. In order to capture the effects of moisture on the material, holding at- temperature until isothermal conditions are reached is unacceptable particularly in materials with small physical dimensions. Thus, the effects due to moisture on the composite's mechanical characteristics, ie., their so-called analog response, may be instructive. One approach employed in this program was rapid heat-up (approx. 200 F/sec.) and loading of both dry and wet in-plane compressive specimens to examine the effects of moisture on this resin dominated mechanical property of the material.

Stokes, Eric H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Comparison of the Sensitivity of Surface Downward Longwave Radiation to Changes in Water Vapor at Two High Elevation Sites

Among the potential reasons for enhanced warming rates in many high elevation regions is the nonlinear relationship between surface downward longwave radiation (DLR) and specific humidity (q). In this study we use ground-based observations at two neighboring high elevation sites in Southwestern Colorado that have different local topography and are 1.3 kilometers apart horizontally and 348 meters vertically. We examine the spatial consistency of the sensitivities (partial derivatives) of DLR with respect to changes in q, and the sensitivities are obtained from the Jacobian matrix of a neural network analysis. Although the relationship between DLR and q is the same at both sites, the sensitivities are higher when q is smaller, which occurs more frequently at the higher elevation site. There is a distinct hourly distribution in the sensitivities at both sites especially for high sensitivity cases, although the range is greater at the lower elevation site. The hourly distribution of the sensitivities relates to that of q. Under clear skies during daytime, q is similar between the two sites, however under cloudy skies or at night, it is not. This means that the DLR-q sensitivities are similar at the two sites during daytime but not at night, and care must be exercised when using data from one site to infer the impact of water vapor feedbacks at another site, particularly at night. Our analysis suggests that care should be exercised when using the lapse rate adjustment to infill high frequency data in a complex topographical region, particularly when one of the stations is subject to cold air pooling as found here.

elevation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Harmonized Sentinel-1 SAR Global River Geometry and Inundation Database

Satellite-based observations on river geometries are sporadic in time, space, or both. Most satellite-based surface water maps, river widths, water surface elevations (WSE), slopes, and bathymetry are asynchronized in time and space. The current configuration of satellites such as Sentinel-6 measured the WSE but is missing the river width, slopes, and depths. To advance hydrological sciences research, there is a need to produce a harmonized time series of river geometry data of non-SWOT satellites in partnership with the upcoming SWOT mission. The SWOT satellite will measure river width, height, and slope but missing river depth measurements in space and time. Further, none of these current satellites measure the WSE, river width, and slopes synchronously. In this work, we use the Sentinel-1 SAR satellite data archive from 2015 to the present to create a global river width and surface water database at the reach scale. A modified version of the Sentinel SAR surface water classification algorithm from ASF is used to quantify the surface water extent on the stream approximately every six days (at the equator) at 10m spatial resolution globally. This 10m water mask is fed into a workflow to quantify the river widths, surface water inundations, slopes, and synthetic bathymetry in SWORD (SWOT River Database) stream networks. A Satellite HAND is used to address the cloud obscured surface water observations using a trained machine learning algorithm. We use WSE derived from the Global Water Monitor from NASA GSFC, Hydroweb from LEGOS, and ICESat-2 to harmonize the WSE observation. And Landsat-8/9 and Sentinel-2 water observations to fill the gaps in the Sentinel-1 SAR database. We use Congo River Basin as a test case where we have more than 500 radar altimetry-based WSE, continuous series of Sentinel-1, ICESat-2, Landsat-8/9, and Sentinel-2 observations. A Congo River hydrologic model is used to generate the streamflow discharge. The satellite observed river reaches are assimilated with the stream flows computed by the routing models. And the downstream reaches in the river network without satellite observations get optimized for discharge/river geometry at each observation cycle. Our final product is a harmonized river geometry dataset (reach's water extent, WSE, slope, synthetic bathymetry) for Congo Basin's SWORD reaches.

Chandana Gangodagamage↗
NASA NTRS1998

Field Micrometeorological Measurements, Process-Level Studies and Modeling of Methane and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes in a Boreal Wetland Ecosystem

The main instrumentation platform consisted of eddy correlation sensors mounted on a scaffold tower at a height of 4.2 m above the peat surface. The sensors were attached to a boom assembly which could be rotated into the prevailing winds. The boom assembly was mounted on a movable sled which, when extended, allowed sensors to be up to 2 m away from the scaffolding structure to minimize flow distortion. When retracted, the sensors could easily be installed, serviced or rotated. An electronic level with linear actuators allowed the sensors to be remotely levelled once the sled was extended. Two instrument arrays were installed. A primary (fast-response) array consisted of a three-dimensional sonic anemometer, a methane sensor (tunable diode laser spectrometer), a carbon dioxide/water vapor sensor, a fine wire thermocouple and a backup one-dimensional sonic anemometer. The secondary array consisted of a one-dimensional sonic anemometer, a fine wire thermocouple and a Krypton hygrometer. Descriptions of these sensors may be found in other reports (e.g., Verma; Suyker and Verma). Slow-response sensors provided supporting measurements including mean air temperature and humidity, mean horizontal windspeed and direction, incoming and reflected solar radiation, net radiation, incoming and reflected photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), soil heat flux, peat temperature, water-table elevation and precipitation. A data acquisition system (consisting of an IBM compatible microcomputer, amplifiers and a 16 bit analog-to-digital converter), housed in a small trailer, was used to record the fast response signals. These signals were low-pass filtered (using 8-pole Butterworth active filters with a 12.5 Hz cutoff frequency) and sampled at 25 Hz. Slow-response signals were sampled every 5 s using a network of CR21X (Campbell Scientific, Inc., Logan Utah) data loggers installed in the fen. All signals were averaged over 30-minute periods (runs).

Verma, S. B.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Evaluation of the Harmful Algal Bloom Mapping System (HABMapS) and Bulletin

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) Mapping System and Bulletin provide a Web-based geographic information system (GIS) and an e-mail alert system that allow the detection, monitoring, and tracking of HABs in the Gulf of Mexico. NASA Earth Science data that potentially support HABMapS/Bulletin requirements include ocean color, sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, wind fields, precipitation, water surface elevation, and ocean currents. Modeling contributions include ocean circulation, wave/currents, along-shore current regimes, and chlorophyll modeling (coupled to imagery). The most immediately useful NASA contributions appear to be the 1-km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) chlorophyll and SST products and the (presently used) SeaWinds wind vector data. MODIS pigment concentration and SST data are sufficiently mature to replace imagery currently used in NOAA HAB applications. The large file size of MODIS data is an impediment to NOAA use and modified processing schemes would aid in NOAA adoption of these products for operational HAB forecasting.

Hall, Callie↗
NASA NTRS2007

Maintenance of Ecosystem Nitrogen Limitation by Ephemeral Forest Disturbance: An Assessment using MODIS, Hyperion, and Landsat ETM+

Ephemeral disturbances, such as non-lethal insect defoliations and crown damage from meteorological events, can significantly affect the delivery of ecosystem services by helping maintain nitrogen (N) limitation in temperate forest ecosystems. However, the impacts of these disturbances are difficult to observe across the broad-scales at which they affect ecosystem function. Using remotely sensed measures and field data, we find support for the hypothesis that ephemeral disturbances help maintain landscape-wide ecosystem N limitation. Specifically, a phenology-based defoliation index derived from daily MODIS satellite imagery predicts three ecosystem responses from oak-dominated forested watersheds: elevated stream water N export (R(exp 2) = 0.48), decreased foliar N (R(exp 2) = 0.69, assessed with Hyperion imagery), and reduced vegetation growth vigor (R(exp 2) = 0.49, assessed with Landsat ETM+ imagery). The results indicate that ephemeral disturbances and other forest stressors may sustain N limitation by reducing the ability of trees to compete for--and retain--soil available N.

McNeil, Brenden E.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

sea level↗