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DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Informing Cybersecurity Decisions With the Value-at-Risk Framework

Security at every site is critical to making hydropower a strong contributor to the country's grid, but with ongoing development and expanding capabilities, the diversity of the existing hydropower fleet makes across-the-board investment decisions difficult. The threat of cyberattacks naturally increases as the interconnection of Information Technology and Operational Technology networks broadens. Hydropower plants require custom analyses that are specific to the unique challenges and characteristics of any given facility. Facilities, however, often do not have the necessary resources for managers to make informed decisions on investments based on assessed capabilities and risks.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing the Level of Inter-Sectoral Policy Integration for Governance in the Water–Energy Nexus: A Comparative Study of Los Angeles and Beijing

As concerns around water scarcity and energy security increase, so too has interest in the connections between these resources, through a concept called the water–energy nexus. Efforts to improve the integration of water and energy management and to understand their cross-sector relevance are growing. In particular, this paper develops a better empirical understanding on the extent to which governance settings hinder and/or enable policy coherence between the water and energy sectors through a comparative analysis of two case studies, namely, Los Angeles County, California, the United States, and the city of Beijing, China. This paper examines the extent to which the institutional context enables policy coordination within (vertically) and between (horizontally) the water and energy sectors in Beijing and Los Angeles. To do so, we propose a framework for analyzing policy integration for the water energy nexus based on environmental policy integration (EPI). The results highlight the multiple and flexible approaches of EPI in nexus governance, not least with regards to horizontal and vertical policy integration, but also in terms of explicit (i.e., intended) and implicit (i.e., unintended) coordination. The level of nexus-focused policy integration is highly dependent on the motivation at the local context and the criteria to evaluate policy success in each sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nondestructive Evaluation of Concrete within Nuclear Applications

Structural defects that develop over the lifetime of nuclear power plants (NPPs) could threaten the safety and security of the concrete infrastructure. Developing a reliable nondestructive evaluation (NDE) method to evaluate the damage in NPPs and their associated structures will greatly improve the long-term operation and safety of NPPs. The purpose of the US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability program is to develop technologies and other solutions that can improve the reliability, sustain the safety, and extend the operating lifetimes of NPPs beyond 60 years. This report describes the progress made toward growing NDE capabilities for NPPs. It also documents expanded collaborations with the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and future opportunities to collaborate with industry partners (i.e., vendors and utilities) and university partners. These collaborations will continue to stand as a framework to provide value to stakeholders by reducing uncertainties and potential delayed maintenance costs in NPPs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fully Homomorphic Encryption

This code implements a Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) system, enabling secure computation on encrypted data without requiring decryption. It supports encryption, decryption, and homomorphic operations like matrix multiplication and addition. This code is adaptable for integrating FHE into linear-time invariant (LTI) systems, including digital control and filtering. With proper configuration from subject matter expertise, encrypted system parameters and signals can be manipulated to perform tasks like state updates, output calculations, and convolution in the encrypted domain. By preserving the structure of LTI systems while ensuring privacy, the framework facilitates secure applications in areas such as autonomous systems, signal processing, and industrial automation. The code initializes the encryption system using parameters provided in the env dictionary. These parameters include the ciphertext modulus, key dimension, plaintext fixed-point scaling factor, and noise bound. During initialization, a secret key is generated, which is essential for encrypting and decrypting data securely. The modular design allows users to tailor these parameters to specific use cases or security requirements. The code implements multiple cryptographic schemes. The learning with errors (LWE) encryption method encodes cleartext message to their plaintext fixed-point representation then encrypted into ciphertext space with additive noise. This noise ensures the security of the scheme, relying on the computational hardness of the LWE problem. The code also includes the Gentry-Sahai-Waters (GSW) scheme based off the LWE problem. Homomorphic matrix multiplication is performed between the LWE and GSW to encrypted data. This is achieved using a decomposition function on the LWE ciphertext during the multiplication operation. For higher-dimensional data, the code includes a method to encrypt entire matrices (GSWMat) using GSW encryption. These encrypted matrices can then be used for homomorphic matrix multiplications (MatMult). The decryption function uses the secret key to recover the original plaintext, removing the added noise and scaling that was originally applied during encryption.

Lois, Roberts [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Id↗
DOE OSTI2020

Groundwater Monitoring Report, U.S. Department of Energy Y-12 National Security Complex, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

This report contains the groundwater and surface water monitoring data obtained during calendar year (CY) 2019 at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) on the DOE Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The monitoring data were obtained from wells, springs, and surface water sampling locations in three hydrogeologic regimes at Y-12. The Bear Creek Hydrogeologic Regime (Bear Creek Regime) encompasses a section of Bear Creek Valley (BCV) between the west end of Y-12 and the west end of the Bear Creek Watershed (directions are in reference to the Y-12 grid system, shown as Plant North. The Upper East Fork Poplar Creek Hydrogeologic Regime (East Fork Regime) encompasses the Y-12 industrial facilities and support structures in BCV. The Chestnut Ridge Hydrogeologic Regime (Chestnut Ridge Regime) encompasses a section of Chestnut Ridge directly south of Y-12. Background information in Section 2 of this report outlines the hydrogeologic framework for groundwater and surface water quality monitoring at Y-12 and includes an overview of the groundwater contamination in each hydrogeologic regime. Section 3 provides details regarding the groundwater and surface water sampling and analysis activities implemented under the Y-12 GWPP, including sampling locations and frequency, sample collection and handling, field measurements and laboratory analytes, quality assurance (QA)/quality control (QC) sampling, data management, and data quality assessment (DQA). However, the equivalent QA/QC or DQA information for the groundwater and surface water data associated with the monitoring programs implemented by UCOR are not included in this report and instead are deferred to referenced programmatic plans and reports issued by OREM and UCOR. Section 4 of this report presents a summary evaluation of the CY 2019 monitoring data with regard to the respective objectives of surveillance monitoring and exit pathway/perimeter monitoring. The evaluation is based primarily on the analytical results for the following principal groundwater contaminants at Y-12: nitrate, uranium, gross alpha activity, gross beta activity, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Section 5 summarizes the most significant findings with respect to the principal contaminants along with recommendations for any proposed changes to the ongoing groundwater and surface water quality monitoring performed under the Y-12 GWPP. Technical reports and plans cited in the narrative sections of the report are listed in Section 6. Narrative sections of this report reference several appendices. Figures (maps and diagrams) and data tables (excluding data summary tables incorporated in the narrative sections) are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. Appendix C contains construction details for each well sampled during CY 2019 by either the Y-12 GWPP or UCOR, along with schematic diagrams for wells equipped with Westbay™ multiport sampling equipment or Barcad® pump systems. Appendix D supports the background summary discussion in Section 2 and provides more detailed information about the hydrogeologic framework for groundwater and surface water monitoring at Y-12, including the primary sources of groundwater contamination in each hydrogeologic regime. Results for all field measurements and laboratory analyses obtained by the Y-12 GWPP and UCOR are presented in Appendix E, which also includes the sample numbers for the QA/QC samples associated with groundwater and surface water monitoring performed by the Y-12 GWPP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Land use for bioenergy: Synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development goals

Bioenergy aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to meeting global climate change mitigation targets. Nevertheless, several sustainability concerns are associated with bioenergy, especially related to the impacts of using land for dedicated energy crop production. Cultivating energy crops can result in synergies or trade-offs between GHG emission reductions and other sustainability effects depending on context-specific conditions. Using the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework, the main synergies and trade-offs associated with land use for dedicated energy crop production were identified. Furthermore, the context-specific conditions (i.e., biomass feedstock, previous land use, climate, soil type and agricultural management) which affect those synergies and trade-offs were also identified. The most recent literature was reviewed and a pairwise comparison between GHG emission reduction (SDG 13) and other SDGs was carried out. A total of 427 observations were classified as either synergy (170), trade-off (176), or no effect (81). Most synergies with environmentally-related SDGs, such as water quality and biodiversity conservation, were observed when perennial crops were produced on arable land, pasture or marginal land in the ‘cool temperate moist’ climate zone and ‘high activity clay’ soils. Most trade-offs were related to food security and water availability. Previous land use and feedstock type are more impactful in determining synergies and trade-offs than climatic zone and soil type. This study highlights the importance of considering context-specific conditions in evaluating synergies and trade-offs and their relevance for developing appropriate policies and practices to meet worldwide demand for bioenergy in a sustainable manner.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phenomenon Identification and Ranking Table Development for Future Application Figure-of-Merit Studies on Thermal Energy Storage Integrations with Light Water Reactors

There are no standard prioritization criteria for evaluating thermal energy storage (TES) options for use in integrated energy systems. A framework for proposing, analyzing, and presenting energy storage integration with power producers and users is presented along with a specific figure-of-merit (FOM) study based in this framework. This basis for evaluating storage technologies can provide a structure for the energy industry to analyze and prioritize energy storage in different applications and environments. The phenomena identification and ranking table (PIRT) presents a series of design questions specific to energy storage applications. The FOM study, built in this PIRT framework based on a nuclear-renewable hybrid energy system using TES to produce power and provide process energy for a secondary user, successfully identified specific technologies to use based on the project requirements. Expanding the library of projects using this framework will expand the deployable options for energy storage and increase its potential for energy security.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Downscaled hyper-resolution (400 m) gridded datasets of daily precipitation and temperature (2008–2019) for the East–Taylor subbasin (western United States)

Abstract. High-resolution gridded datasets of meteorological variables are needed in order to resolve fine-scale hydrological gradients in complex mountainous terrain. Across the United States, the highest available spatial resolution of gridded datasets of daily meteorological records is approximately 800 m. This work presents gridded datasets of daily precipitation and mean temperature for the East–Taylor subbasin (in the western United States) covering a 12-year period (2008–2019) at a high spatial resolution (400 m). The datasets are generated using a downscaling framework that uses data-driven models to learn relationships between climate variables and topography. We observe that downscaled datasets of precipitation and mean temperature exhibit smoother spatial gradients (while preserving the spatial variability) when compared to their coarser counterparts. Additionally, we also observe that when downscaled datasets are upscaled to the original resolution (800 m), the mean residual error is almost zero, ensuring no bias when compared with the original data. Furthermore, the downscaled datasets are observed to be linearly related to elevation, which is consistent with the methodology underlying the original 800 m product. Finally, we validate the spatial patterns exhibited by downscaled datasets via an example use case that models lidar-derived estimates of snowpack. The presented dataset constitutes a valuable resource to resolve fine-scale hydrological gradients in the mountainous terrain of the East–Taylor subbasin, which is an important study area in the context of water security for the southwestern United States and Mexico. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.15485/1822259 (Mital et al., 2021).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the impact of measured and projected climate and management systems on agricultural fields: Surface runoff, soil moisture, and soil erosion

Abstract As global climate change poses a challenge to crop production, it is imperative to prioritize effective adaptation of agricultural systems based on a scientific understanding of likely impacts. In this study, we applied an integrated watershed modeling framework to examine the impacts of projected climate on runoff, soil moisture, and soil erosion under different management systems in Central Oklahoma. The proposed model uses measured climate data and three downscaled ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) at the water resources and erosion watershed to understand the impact of climate change and various climate conditions under three management systems: (1) continuous winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) under conventional tillage (WW‐CT; baseline system), (2) continuous winter wheat under no‐till (WW‐NT), and (3) cool and warm season forage cover crop mixes under no‐till (CC‐NT). The study indicates that the occurrence of agricultural drought is projected to increase while erosion rates will remain unchanged under the WW‐CT. In contrast, climate simulations imposed on the WW‐NT and CC‐NT systems significantly reduce runoff and sediment while preserving soil moisture levels. Especially, implementing the CC‐NT system can bolster food security and foster sustainable farming practices in Central Oklahoma in the face of a changing climate.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods and system for siting advanced nuclear reactors and evaluating energy policy concerns

There is a growing sociopolitical desire to develop cleaner energy sources in the United States and maintain energy security. Regardless of politics, many coal-fired electric plants have already been shut down and many utilities are vowing to retire their current coal-fired assets within the next two decades. Replacement power assets require consideration of appropriate siting. A geographic information system (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis approach is useful to assist utility and energy companies, as well as policymakers, to evaluate potential areas for siting new plants in the contiguous United States. A GIS-based framework is simply a database of location information that allows for mapping, querying, modeling, and analyzing data based on location. The spatial output can be structured to be visual, allowing for easier analysis of location data. The need to site additional power assets, including renewable resources and clean power sources, such as nuclear, led to the development of the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion (OR-SAGE) tool discussed in this paper. The tool takes inputs such as population growth, water availability, environmental indicators, and tectonic and geological hazards to provide an in-depth visual analysis for siting options. Energy companies and other stakeholders can use OR-SAGE to procure feedback quickly and effectively on land suitability based on technology specific inputs. Policymakers can use OR-SAGE to analyze the impacts of future energy technology decisions, while balancing competing resource use. Overall, this paper discusses the recent use of OR-SAGE for these purposes and plans for future development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Port Hope Areas Initiative's Port Granby Project: The Decontamination of Site Equipment from a Low Level Waste Facility - 20330

The Port Hope Area Initiative (PHAI) is the Government of Canada's response to the community recommended solutions for the remediation and safe, long-term management of historic low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) that was the result of uranium and radium processing operations in the Municipality of Port Hope, Ontario from the 1930's to the 1980's. The Eldorado refinery, on the shores of Lake Ontario, began refining radium-226 from pitchblende ore, later transitioning to the refining of uranium ore. Process residues were deposited at the Welcome Waste Management Facility in Port Hope until the mid-1950's switching to the Port Granby Waste Management Facility (PGWMF), which continued to accept waste until the late 1980's. The Port Granby Project involves the construction of a new, secure long-term waste management facility (LTWMF) and supporting infrastructure, and the excavation and relocation of approximately 1,200,000 m{sup 3} of historic low-level radioactive waste and marginally contaminated soil from the PGWMF to the newly constructed LTWMF. Since the project's inception in 2016, the bulk of the material has since been moved to the final long term storage cell. This has taken over 500,000 person-hours and a large amount of one site heavy equipment to accomplish including excavators, bulldozers, rock trucks, baker tanks and vacuum trucks. While many of the pieces of heavy equipment and water management equipment has further work to do on site, several of the sites larger items have already undergone the decontamination process prior to release from the site. This process has posed a serious challenge as the waste has a caustic nature to it and over the last few years it has had time to work its way into the metallic structures and framework of the equipment. Coupled with the tight work spaces and in some cases confined work areas there have been many issues that needed to be addressed to successfully reach a state where items can be free released to the unrestricted limits of the sites license. This ongoing process has led to a more refined decontamination program at the Port Granby Facility and has had a rather high success rate considering the length of time the equipment has been exposed to the waste materials on site. This paper discusses the varied challenges of decontamination faced at a low-level radioactive waste facility with a focus on the following aspects: - Challenges faced regarding different equipment types and the solutions implemented by Wood to address these challenges; - An examination of various decontamination methods employed throughout the project; and - Lessons learned over three years of remediation work and how they impact the decontamination process. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Contribution of Tibetan Plateau ecosystems to local and remote precipitation through moisture recycling

The ecosystems of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) provide multiple important ecosystem services that benefit both local populations and those beyond, such as through climate regulation services on precipitation for East Asia and China. However, the precipitation regulation service of the TP ecosystems for supplying moisture and maintaining precipitation is yet to be evaluated. In this study, we used the moisture recycling framework and a moisture tracking model to quantify the precipitation regulation services of TP ecosystems for their contribution to precipitation. We found TP ecosystems contributed substantially to local and downwind precipitation, with a declined contribution from 221 mm/year for the TP and neighboring areas, to <10 mm/year for eastern China and other surrounding countries. Among ecosystem types, grassland contributed most to precipitation, followed by barren and snow lands, forests, and shrublands. In terms of seasonality, precipitation contribution from TP ecosystems was greater in summer months than in non-summer months for western China, while the opposite was true for eastern China – though the magnitude was much smaller. Over the past two decades, the significant evapotranspiration increases in TP translated to a widespread increase in precipitation contribution for TP and downwind beneficiary regions from 2000 to 2020. Our study provides a quantitative way to understand the precipitation regulation services of TP ecosystems through moisture recycling, substantiating their key role to safeguard precipitation and the water cycle for downwind regions– effectively acting as an ecological security shelter that could be perceived by the public.

Li, Yan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and game theory for cyber security risk analysis in nuclear power plants

Nuclear Power Plants and energy systems have become more prone to cyber-attacks with their digitalization and the increased use of smart equipment. Hence, it is important to quantify the risk associated with cyber-attacks in such systems. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment which involves studying the evolution of a system due to random events and operator and attacker actions during a cyber-attack by employing a physics-based model of the system is a suitable framework to quantify cybersecurity risk in nuclear power plants. In addition to the plant dynamics, it is also important to model the strategies of the attackers and plant operators for an effective cybersecurity risk assessment. Game theory provides a set of necessary tools to model such strategic interactions. In this research, a framework that integrates dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with game theory for cybersecurity risk analysis in nuclear power plants is presented. The mathematical formulation is derived based on the theory of continuous event trees. We propose a game theory based action model, that utilizes physics-based rewards to define the strategies of attackers and operators at every decision epoch. As a case study, the risk associated with cyber-attacks on the digital components in the secondary side of a pressurized water reactor is studied using a reduced order model. A set of attacker actions and a set of operator actions are defined for the system. The operator and attacker interactions were modelled using simultaneous game, their action policies were computed using the concept of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium and the evolution of the system was studied.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Risk assessment of wellbore leakage during underground hydrogen storage

The expansion of renewable energy sources would require large-scale energy storage options to overcome the intermittent nature of these sources. Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs offers a scalable and practical energy storage solution. These reservoirs are chosen for their availability and large capacity, but the unique properties of hydrogen raise concerns about potential leakage pathways, particularly through wellbores. In this study, we develop and apply, for the first time, reduced-order models (ROMs) specifically designed for efficient leakage risk prediction in UHS systems operating in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. Using 3,000 high-fidelity simulation scenarios, we examine the influence of 11 key parameters, including reservoir and aquifer depths, wellbore permeability and porosity, initial saturations of water, oil and gas fractions (hydrogen, light, intermediate, and heavy hydrocarbons), reservoir pressure multiplier, and the aquifer-to-reservoir volume ratio, to simulate leakage behavior over a 1,000-year timescale. We train ROMs using a two-step classification-regression approach, achieving R 2 values exceeding 99 % across all targets. These ROMs effectively capture the leakage evolution and identify critical controls of leakage, guiding the design of mitigation strategies. Results indicate that gas leakage occurs in about 27 % of scenarios as early as five years post-operation, reaching volumes of up to 106 ft3. Oil leakage is less frequent (~17 %) and typically begins decades later. Our findings also show that hydrogen often migrates first, owing to its smaller molecular size and higher buoyancy, followed by heavier hydrocarbons. Over time, these heavier components contribute significantly to the total leaked volume, reinforcing the need for targeted monitoring and remediation strategies. Our analysis highlights that deeper storage reservoirs, shallower aquifers, and low-permeability wellbores significantly reduce leakage risks. In conclusion, this work offers a robust framework for risk-informed UHS deployment, supporting energy security through reliable large-scale hydrogen storage while safeguarding environmental integrity.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Facets of hydro power and future trends in a Nordic Context

Hydropower technologies bolster high penetration of variable renewable energies (VREs) in the net zero emissions scenarios. Nevertheless, there are various challenges to meeting the ambitious goal, such as stability, reliability, resiliency, security, lack of reactive power, voltage support and inertia, large-scale storage deployment and coordination, interconnectedness, demand-side response, higher thermal cycles with increased start/stops, and inadequate Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for system-wise VRE integration and profitability. This survey conducts a bottom-up analysis to unveil the opportunities to utilize hydropower facilities and disentangle the nested problem for intertwining design features, control algorithms, operation, optimization approaches, incentives, services, and market mechanisms using a three-pillar framework perspective: grid owners, power producers, and machine designers. The survey identified emerging trends in real-time and capacity markets, flexible power systems, and enhanced grid capabilities, including advanced voltage support and updated grid codes. These developments present significant opportunities for hydropower, such as achieving super-flexibility through hybridization, expanded reactive power capabilities, and advanced operational modes like a synchronous condenser and power adequator functionalities. These opportunities require novel design philosophies — including new winding, stator, and rotor configurations, optimized ventilation, and active cooling systems — to enhance performance under stressed grid and climate conditions. Finally, integrating climate and energy models for multi-basin optimization with finer spatial and temporal granularity enhances the planning accuracy for water management of hydropower while addressing environmental challenges. The review delivers helpful prospective suggestions and tools that would serve researchers, power engineers, and stakeholders in making decisions about hydropower technologies and services in 2050 and beyond.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Risk Analysis of Various Design Architectures for High Safety-significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems of Nuclear Power Plants during Accident Scenarios

This report documents the plus-up activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) risk assessment project. In FY 2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. An integrated risk assessment technology for the DI&C systems was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate, risk-informed capability to quantitatively and accurately estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for the high safety-significant safety-related (HSSSR) DI&C systems, (2) support and supplement existing advanced risk-informed DI&C design guides by providing quantitative risk information and evidence, (3) offer a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems to support system design decisions and diversity and redundancy applications, (4) assure the long-term safety and reliability of HSSSR DI&C systems, and (5) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals and deal with the expensive licensing justifications from regulatory insights, the LWRS-developed framework instructs nuclear vendors and utilities on how to effectively lower the costs associated with digital compliance and speed industry advances by: (1) defining an integrated risk-informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade, including hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying systematic and risk-informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify corresponding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the component level, system level, and plant level, and (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks, thus to support the development, licensing, and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies on nuclear power plant (NPPs). Adding diversity within system or components is the main means to eliminate and mitigate CCFs, but diversity also increases plant complexity and errors and may not address all sources of systematic failures. How to optimize the diversity and redundancy applications for the safety-critical DI&C systems remains a challenge. To deal with the technical issues in addressing potential software CCFs in HSSSR DI&C systems of NPPs and supporting relevant design optimization, the framework provides: ? An integrated best-estimate, risk-informed capability to address new technical digital issues quantitatively, accurately, and efficiently in plan modernization progress, such as software CCFs in HSSSR DI&C systems of NPPs ? A common and a modularized platform for DI&C designers, software developers, cybersecurity analysts, and plant engineers to efficiently predict and prevent risk in the early design stage of DI&C systems ? Technical bases and risk-informed insights to assist U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and industry to address and fulfill the risk-informed alternatives for evaluation of CCFs in HSSSR DI&C systems of NPPs ? An integrated risk-informed tool that offers a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems to support system design decisions in diversity and redundancy applications. The plus-up research and development efforts of this project in FY 2022 are focused on methodology improvement of software CCF modeling and estimation, prevention analysis, importance analysis and risk analysis of various design architectures of HSSSR DI&C systems. This work greatly enhances the capability of the LWRS-developed framework for the risk assessment and design optimization of safety-critical DI&C systems. It should be noted that all the analyses are performed for the demonstration of the LWRS-developed framework, not for the evaluation of relevant systems. Results are obtained based on very limited design information and testing data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the Known Unknown: Including Marine Sources of Greenhouse Gases in Climate Modeling

Researchers have recently estimated that Arctic submarine permafrost currently traps 60 billion tons of methane and contains 560 billion tons of organic carbon in seafloor sediments and soil, a giant pool of carbon with potentially large feedbacks on the climate system. Unlike terrestrial permafrost, the submarine permafrost system has remained a “known unknown” because of the difficulty in acquiring samples and measurements. Consequently, this potentially large carbon stock never yet considered in global climate models or policy discussions, represents a real wildcard in our understanding of Earth’s climate. This report summarizes our group’s effort at developing a numerical modeling framework designed to produce a first-of-its-kind estimate of Arctic methane gas releases from the marine sediments to the water column, and potentially to the atmosphere, where positive climate feedback may occur. Newly developed modeling capability supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories now gives us the ability to probabilistically map gas distribution and quantity in the seabed by using a hybrid approach of geospatial machine learning, and predictive numerical thermodynamic ensemble modeling. The novelty in this approach is its ability to produce maps of useful data in regions that are only sparsely sampled, a common challenge in the Arctic, and a major obstacle to progress in the past. By applying this model to the circum-Arctic continental shelves and integrating the flux of free gas from in situ methanogenesis and dissociating gas hydrates from the sediment column under climate forcing, we can provide the most reliable estimate of a spatially and temporally varying source term for greenhouse gas flux that can be used by global oceanographic circulation and Earth system models (such as DOE’s E3SM). The result will allow us to finally tackle the wildcard of the submarine permafrost carbon system, and better inform us about the severity of future national security threats that sustained climate change poses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗