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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting Multi-Wave Epidemics Through Bayesian Inference

We present a simple, near-real-time Bayesian method to infer and forecast a multiwave outbreak, and demonstrate it on the COVID-19 pandemic. The approach uses timely epidemiological data that has been widely available for COVID-19. It provides short-term forecasts of the outbreak’s evolution, which can then be used for medical resource planning. The method postulates one- and multiwave infection models, which are convolved with the incubation-period distribution to yield competing disease models. The disease models’ parameters are estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and information-theoretic criteria are used to select between them for use in forecasting. The method is demonstrated on two- and three-wave COVID-19 outbreaks in California, New Mexico and Florida, as observed during Summer-Winter 2020. We find that the method is robust to noise, provides useful forecasts (along with uncertainty bounds) and that it reliably detected when the initial single-wave COVID-19 outbreaks transformed into successive surges as containment efforts in these states failed by the end of Spring 2020.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hawai‘i National Marine Renewable Energy Center (HINMREC)

The Hawaii National Marine Renewable Energy Center (HINMREC) was established to facilitate the commercialization of wave energy converter (WEC) devices, and to accelerate development and testing of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) technologies. Housed at the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute (HNEI) of the University of Hawaii (UH), this program started with execution of the contract between the US Department of Energy (DOE) and UH in March 2009, and activities ran through the end of the project in September 2019. The DOE tasked HINMREC with facilitating and accelerating the build-out of the Navy’s Wave Energy Test Site (WETS), the nation’s first grid-connected open water wave energy conversion test facility, located off Marine Corps Base Hawaii (MCBH) in Kaneohe, on the island of Oahu. WETS was expanded from an existing test berth at 30m water depth to include test berths at 60m and 80m water depths. In recognition of the high costs associated with at-sea testing and evaluation of WEC devices, it was deemed imperative that HINMREC seek ways to reduce costs to developers by providing key research support to these early-stage technologies. WETS and HINMREC’s support allowed development of wave energy technology by providing a testing infrastructure that allows technology developers to test, demonstrate and evaluate their WEC devices, and generate data in order to advance WEC designs toward commercial readiness. HINMREC’s roles have included support in the establishment of the full site, including of wave resource characterization and site survey, followed by the essential roles of independent WEC device power performance assessment and environmental monitoring in support of deployed pre-commercial WECs. This DOE-funded work transitioned effectively to continue Navy-funded tasks for OTEC development, and activities at WETS, now under Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC) funding. A secondary objective in the establishment of HINMREC was to assist the private sector in moving OTEC systems beyond proof-of-concept to pre-commercialization, primarily focused on system and component engineering, and local and global investigations into the potential environmental impacts of OTEC systems. HINMREC was tasked with maintaining high-resolution models of ocean thermal resources and the potential sustainable power output of OTEC systems. Ongoing tests begun previously under Navy funding at the OTEC Heat Exchangers (HXs) Test Facility at the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority (NELHA), in Kona on Hawaii Island, have been continued to identify cost-effective aluminum alloys for use in OTEC systems operating in the corrosive marine environment.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays (ALFA)/Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) for Marine Energy (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The objective of the Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays (ALFA) project was to reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of Marine and Hydrokinetic (MHK) energy by leveraging research, development, and testing capabilities at Oregon State University, University of Washington, and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. ALFA is a project within the Pacific Marine Energy Center (PMEC; formerly NNMREC), a multi-institution entity with a diverse funding base that focuses on research and development for marine renewables. The ALFA project aimed to accelerate the development of next-generation arrays of wave energy conversion (WEC) and tidal energy conversion (TEC) devices through a suite of field-focused R&D activities spanning a broad range of strategic opportunity areas identified in the Funding Opportunity Announcement: • Device and/or array operation and maintenance (O&M) logistics development; • High-fidelity resource characterization and/or modeling technique development and validation; • Array-specific component technology development (e.g. moorings and foundations, transmission, and other offshore grid components); • Array performance testing and evaluation; and • Novel cost-effective environmental monitoring techniques and instrumentation testing and evaluation. The objective of the Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) was to accelerate the development of next-generation marine energy conversion systems. The LCP aimed to achieve these project objectives in collaboration with the national laboratories by: • Developing concept generation and assessment tools; • Improving access to existing testing resources; • Validating collision risk models between fish and turbines; and • Advancing analysis and simulation capabilities for wave-WEC interactions and PTO analysis in nonlinear ocean waves. The ALFA portion of the project was comprised of six overarching technical tasks: • Task 1: Debris Modeling, Detection and Mitigation; • Task 2: Autonomous Monitoring & Intervention; • Task 3: Resource Characterization for Extreme Conditions; • Task 4: Robust Models for Design of Offshore Anchoring and Mooring Systems; • Task 5: Performance Enhancement for Marine Energy Converter (MEC) Arrays; and • Task 6: Evaluating Sampling Techniques for MHK Biological Monitoring. The LCP was divided into four overarching technical tasks: • Task 7: Project Management and Reporting • Task 8: Novel Design and Assessment Methodologies for Wave Energy Converter Design (Wave- SPARC) • Task 9: Testing Access for Commercial Marine Renewable Energy Technology Developers • Task 10: Quantifying Collision Risk for Fish and Turbines • Task 11: Nonlinear Ocean Waves and PTO Control Strategy Each ALFA/LCP task listed above functioned as a separate and discreet project. A final Technical Report was written for each individual task and these reports were uploaded to OSTI, after receiving DOE approval. The following document is a compilation of each of these final, approved reports arranged as individual chapters.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2018

Sub-Seasonal Forecasting of the Stratospheric Wave Events, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, and Their Influence on the Troposphere

Stratospheric wave events and major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are well captured in high-resolution global forecasts out to 10 days. Tropospheric influences of SSW include statistically significant shifts in the storm tracks and associated surface temperature and precipitation pattern changes. Since these events can in turn influence the troposphere on time scales of 30-60 days the ability to predict these events and the subsequent long-term response on time scales beyond 10 days is of interest. Here we examine the prediction of stratospheric wave events and their evolution using the NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) system. This is a recently released subseasonal to seasonal forecast system, GEOS-S2S version 2.1. Compared to GMAO's previous system, the new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 1/2 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model of the cryosphere, includes additional interactive aerosol model components, and the ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Results are based on a comprehensive series of hindcasts starting from the year 2000. They show that while the S2S system is not as accurate at 10 days in forecasting major SSW events as the NASA GMAO Forward Processing system, it can usefully predict stratospheric anomalies out to 20 days and the subsequent stratospheric/tropospheric evolution beyond 30 days.

Coy, L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Forecasting Weather with a Wave of the Hand

Building upon its successful collaboration with NASA, Cybernet introduced GestureStorm(TradeMark), a weather map management system that utilizes both body tracking and gesture recognition technology for televised weather reports. The GestureStorm software interface enables meteorologists to control the computerized visual effects on weather maps using hand gestures and body movements. Prior to this, meteorologists prepared scripted on-air reports to coincide with the timing of graphics on the computerized maps. They knew when and where weather and Doppler radar maps would appear on the monitor, but could not react in real time. Cybernet s new product frees forecasters from a script, enabling them to directly interact with the weather picture in real time, significantly reducing the preparation time for the broadcast. With this technology, meteorologists control the pace of the visuals and can incorporate spontaneous close-ups with simple hand movements. In cases of severe weather, meteorologists strive to report new information as quickly as possible. GestureStorm gives forecasters an edge as they track late-breaking storms. The reduced preparation and real-time interaction shave critical minutes from the time required to broadcast severe weather warnings.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Simons Observatory: forecasted constraints on primordial gravitational waves with the expanded array of Small Aperture Telescopes

We present updated forecasts for the scientific performance of the degree-scale (0.5 deg FWHM at 93 GHz), deep-field survey to be conducted by the Simons Observatory (SO). By 2027, the SO Small Aperture Telescope (SAT) complement will be doubled from three to six telescopes, including a doubling of the detector count in the 93 GHz and 145 GHz channels to 48,160 detectors. Combined with a planned extension of the survey duration to 2035, this expansion will significantly enhance SO's search for a B-mode signal in the polarisation of the cosmic microwave background, a potential signature of gravitational waves produced in the very early Universe. Assuming a 1/f noise model with knee multipole ℓ knee = 50 and a moderately complex model for Galactic foregrounds, we forecast a 1σ (or 68% confidence level) constraint on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r of σ r = 1.2 × 10 -3 , assuming no primordial B-modes are present. This forecast assumes that 70% of the B-mode lensing signal can ultimately be removed using high resolution observations from the SO Large Aperture Telescope (LAT) and overlapping large-scale structure surveys. For more optimistic assumptions regarding foregrounds and noise, and assuming the same level of delensing, this forecast constraint improves to σ r = 7 × 10 -4 . These forecasts represent a major improvement in SO's constraining power, being a factor of around 2.5 times better than what could be achieved with the originally planned campaign, which assumed the existing three SATs would conduct a five-year survey.

CMBR experiments↗
DOE OSTI2022

CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves

CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5σ, or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gravitational waves and galaxies cross-correlations: a forecast on GW biases for future detectors

ABSTRACT Gravitational waves (GWs) have rapidly become important cosmological probes since their first detection in 2015. As the number of detected events continues to rise, upcoming instruments like Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE) will observe millions of compact binary mergers. These detections, coupled with galaxy surveys by instruments such as the Dark Spectroscopic Energy Instrument (DESI), Euclid, and the Vera Rubin Observatory, will provide unique information on the large-scale structure of the universe by cross-correlating GWs with the distribution of galaxies hosting them. In this paper, we focus on how cross-correlations constrain the clustering bias of GWs emitted by the coalescence of binary black holes (BBHs). This parameter links BBHs to the underlying dark matter distribution, hence informing us how they populate galaxies. Using a multitracer approach, we forecast the precision of these measurements under different survey combinations. Our results indicate that current GW detectors will have limited precision, with measurement errors as high as $\displaystyle \sim 50~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. However, third-generation detectors like ET, when cross-correlated with Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) data, can improve clustering bias measurements to within 2.5 per cent. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these cross-correlations can enable a per cent-level measurement of the magnification lensing effect on GWs. Despite this, there is a degeneracy between magnification and evolution biases, which hinders the precision of both. This degeneracy is most effectively addressed by assuming knowledge of one bias or targeting an optimal redshift range of $\displaystyle 1 \lt z \lt 2.5$. Our analysis opens new avenues for studying the distribution of BBHs and testing the nature of gravity through large-scale structure.

Zazzera, Stefano (ORCID:0000000158979221)↗
NASA NTRS2005

Modern Radar Techniques for Geophysical Applications: Two Examples

The last decade of the evolution of radar was heavily influenced by the rapid increase in the information processing capabilities. Advances in solid state radio HF devices, digital technology, computing architectures and software offered the designers to develop very efficient radars. In designing modern radars the emphasis goes towards the simplification of the system hardware, reduction of overall power, which is compensated by coding and real time signal processing techniques. Radars are commonly employed in geophysical radio soundings like probing the ionosphere; stratosphere-mesosphere measurement, weather forecast, GPR and radio-glaciology etc. In the laboratorio di Geofisica Ambientale of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Rome, Italy, we developed two pulse compression radars. The first is a HF radar called AIS-INGV; Advanced Ionospheric Sounder designed both for the purpose of research and for routine service of the HF radio wave propagation forecast. The second is a VHF radar called GLACIORADAR, which will be substituting the high power envelope radar used by the Italian Glaciological group. This will be employed in studying the sub glacial structures of Antarctica, giving information about layering, the bed rock and sub glacial lakes if present. These are low power radars, which heavily rely on advanced hardware and powerful real time signal processing. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Arokiasamy, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Sensitivity of Low Tropospheric Arctic Temperatures to Assimilation of AIRS Cloud-Cleared Radiances: Impact on Mid-Latitude Waves

In this work, it is shown that the prediction of individual mid-latitude waves in a global forecast framework is sensitive to the initialization over the Arctic and may benefit from the assimilation of cloud-cleared radiances (CCRs) from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), particularly in partially cloudy regions with active dynamics. This study shows that the assimilation of AIRS CCRs over the Arctic Ocean, providing more information than clear-sky radiances from areas affected by broken low-level stratus clouds, produces slightly cooler low-level temperatures and lower mid-tropospheric height through hydrostatic adjustment. In areas that are data void, as observed by clear-sky radiances, and dynamically active, the assimilation of CCRs provides valuable information that can improve the representation of individual baroclinic waves and their subsequent forecasts. The modifications induced by the assimilation of AIRS CCRs over the Arctic Ocean slightly modifies the geopotential height gradients between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes, leading to potential improvements in the forecast of individual baroclinic waves as is shown through a case study. The observing system experiment (OSE) is performed with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation and forecast system during boreal autumn 2014. AIRS CCRs are thinned to approximately one quarter the density of operationally assimilated AIRS radiances, consistent with their higher information content. Global, 6-hourly analyses are produced from 1 September to 10 November 2014 and 7-day forecasts are initialized at 0000 UTC daily. Since the CCR methodology is widely applicable, these findings are also relevant to other infrared sensors.

Cloud-clearing↗
NASA NTRS1983

Predictability of planetary waves - Interhemispheric differences and the effects of stationary forcing

An attempt is made to determine the way in which errors appear in the ultralong waves of numerical weather prediction models, as well as the means by which such errors may be alleviated. Such efforts to improve the numerical forecasting of planetary waves derive their importance from the fact that energetic large scale phenomena are the basis for prospective improvements in extended range forecasting. A simple, linear, quasi-geostrophic and barotropic model is presently used in real data forecast simulations to explore, in an idealized context, several effects that may clarify discrepancies betweeen predictability theory and the performance of current numerical weather prediction models. Attention is given to the degree to which discrepancies may be accounted for by linear theory.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Lightning-Generated Whistler Waves Observed by Probes On The Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System Satellite at Low Latitudes

Direct evidence is presented for a causal relationship between lightning and strong electric field transients inside equatorial ionospheric density depletions. In fact, these whistler mode plasma waves may be the dominant electric field signal within such depletions. Optical lightning data from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite and global lightning location information from the World Wide Lightning Location Network are presented as independent verification that these electric field transients are caused by lightning. The electric field instrument on C/NOFS routinely measures lightning ]related electric field wave packets or sferics, associated with simultaneous measurements of optical flashes at all altitudes encountered by the satellite (401.867 km). Lightning ]generated whistler waves have abundant access to the topside ionosphere, even close to the magnetic equator.

Holzworth, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Probability of US Heat Waves Affected by a Subseasonal Planetary Wave Pattern

Heat waves are thought to result from subseasonal atmospheric variability. Atmospheric phenomena driven by tropical convection, such as the Asian monsoon, have been considered potential sources of predictability on subseasonal timescales. Mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics have been considered too chaotic to allow significant prediction skill of lead times beyond the typical 10-day range of weather forecasts. Here we use a 12,000-year integration of an atmospheric general circulation model to identify a pattern of subseasonal atmospheric variability that can help improve forecast skill for heat waves in the United States. We find that heat waves tend to be preceded by 15-20 days by a pattern of anomalous atmospheric planetary waves with a wavenumber of 5. This circulation pattern can arise as a result of internal atmospheric dynamics and is not necessarily linked to tropical heating.We conclude that some mid-latitude circulation anomalies that increase the probability of heat waves are predictable beyond the typical weather forecast range.

Mid-Latitude Circulation↗