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At least 55 records · Page 3

The use of soil moisture and Standardized Evaporative Stress Ratio (SESR) anomalies for increased lead time of the development flash drought and heat waves

Drought and rapid intensification of drought (i.e., flash drought) can have significant impacts on the natural environment and the economy, particularly when coupled with a period(s) of extreme heat (Otkin et al., 2018). The development and/or intensification of drought falls squarely in the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) time frame, which dictates that drought development, intensification, and propagation could be an output of a subseasonal or seasonal forecast. Current S2S forecasts have poor skill for forecasting the development of extreme drought and heat waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Study on the Shock Wave Propagation Rule of a Gas Explosion in a Gas Compartment

Combined with the k-ε turbulence model of general application, a refined finite element model of a utility tunnel’s gas compartment filled with the methane/air mixture is developed. A series of analyses are made by using the powerful industry-leading computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software flame acceleration simulator (FLACS) to study the shock wave propagation rule in the gas compartment. The longitudinal and transversal distribution laws of the explosion shock wave are gained taking into consideration the spatial characteristics of the gas compartment. The influences of a few parameters, such as initial conditions and section size of the gas compartment, on the shock wave propagation rule are further discussed. The basic procedure for predicting the peak pressure of the blast wave is provided by considering the initial conditions and the gas compartment, and the corresponding injury effect of the explosion wave on the living beings is assessed. The investigation demonstrates that the peak pressure by the coupled effect between the initial conditions is significantly influenced, especially at the upper and lower gas explosion limits. The peak pressure increases gradually as the width or height increases, and both basically meet the linear relation. The proposed method can forecast the peak pressure of the explosion shock wave in the gas compartment accurately. According to the peak pressure longitudinal and transversal distributions of the blast wave, the peak pressure is far greater than the killing pressure threshold in the underground and closed space; consequently, it is not safe for the living beings in the gas compartment.

Lin, Shu-Chao↗

Forecasting Tropical Annual Maximum Wet-Bulb Temperatures Months in Advance From the Current State of ENSO

Humid heatwaves, characterized by high temperature and humidity combinations, challenge tropical societies. Extreme wet-bulb temperatures (TW) over tropical land are coupled to the warmest sea surface temperatures by atmospheric convection and wave dynamics. Here, we harness this coupling for seasonal forecasts of the annual maximum of daily maximum TW (TW max ). We develop a multiple linear regression model that explains 80% of variance in tropical mean TW max and significant regional TW max variances. The model considers warming trends and El Niño and Southern Oscillation indices. Looking ahead, the strong-to-very-strong El Niño at the end of 2023, with an Oceanic Niño Index of ~2.0, suggests a 2024 tropical land mean TW max of 26.2°C (25.9–26.4°C), and a 68% chance (24%–94%) of breaking existing records. This method also predicts regional TW max in specific areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Subseasonal Forecasting and MJO Teleconnections in Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models

Abstract In recent years, machine‐learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data have rivaled physics‐based forecast models in terms of performance skill for global weather forecasting. With increased rollout stability, the question of how these models perform for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S, week 3–8) forecasting has emerged. In this study we run a large set of subseasonal hindcasts over 2004–2023 to evaluate two ML weather forecast models at the S2S time scale, SFNO‐HENS (Nvidia, fully ML) and NeuralGCM (Google Research, hybrid). Corresponding hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a baseline for comparison to a physics‐based model. Because our focus is on predicting moisture transport over the Western United States between October and March, we evaluate the models' prediction skill for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated teleconnections in the North Pacific. We find that both ML models are competitive with the ECWMF model, with comparable skill in predicting the North Pacific large‐scale circulation and the MJO at week 3 and beyond. Even though overall the mid‐latitude subseasonal prediction skill remains low, the ML models exhibit interesting behavior such as a realistic propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent and realistic teleconnections. A SFNO‐HENS sensitivity experiment with altered initial conditions in the tropics demonstrates the stability of the model, and it illustrates the capability of ML models to represent important physical processes of the atmosphere at the S2S time scale. Plain Language Summary Predicting weather patterns and precipitation a few weeks in advance (subseasonal time scale) is of great interest for stakeholders such as water managers in the Southwest United States (US), where arid conditions prevail. Subseasonal forecasts from traditional weather forecast models exhibit low skill in the region, limiting their applicability. Here we examine whether the recent breakthrough in weather forecasting made with machine learning/artificial intelligence models can translate to improved subseasonal forecasts. Recently‐developed machine learning models exhibit comparable skill to a state‐of‐the‐art physics‐based model for predicting weather patterns in the North Pacific/North America region, and associated moisture transport. The same applies to their skill in predicting the tropical pattern, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and its important remote perturbations over the midlatitude East Pacific and Southwest US. Additionally, a perturbation experiment carried out with one of the machine learning models illustrates their ability to not only predict the evolution of atmospheric fields, but also to learn and represent physical processes such as tropics‐extratropics Rossby wave propagation. Key Points Two machine learning weather forecast models exhibit state‐of‐the‐art prediction skill at the subseasonal time scale in the Pacific sector The models equal ECWMF in terms of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill, and they accurately predict the MJO propagation and associated teleconnections The two machine‐learning models represent key physical processes for subseasonal prediction, despite being trained for weather forecasting

Peings, Yannick↗

Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

Developing a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change and climate variability, especially the prediction/projection of climate futures with useful temporal and geographical resolution and quantified uncertainties, and using that knowledge to inform adaptation planning and action will become crucially important in the coming years. Generating such policy-relevant knowledge may be particularly important for developing countries such as India. It is with this backdrop that, in this paper, we analyze future heat waves in India by using observations and a large number of model simulations of historical, + 1.5 °C, and + 2.0 °C warmer worlds. In both the future scenarios, there is an increased probability of heat waves during June and July when the Indian monsoon is in full swing and humidity is high, which makes the heat events even more of a health risk. While the highest temperatures in heat waves may not increase much in future climates, the duration and areal extent of the heat waves will most likely increase, leading to the emergence of new heat wave-prone zones in India. The results indicate that the joint frequencies of the longest duration and large area events could be nearly threefold greater in the + 1.5 °C and fivefold greater in the + 2.0 °C future scenarios compared to historical simulations. Thus, overall, the study indicates a substantial increase in the risk of heat events that typically elicit warnings from forecasters. The likely widespread and persistent nature of heat wave events in the future, as revealed by this study, will require planning and adaptation measures beyond the short-term disaster planning frameworks currently in place. Exploring what these measures might look like is beyond the scope of this study, but it underlines the importance of developing climate knowledge with high temporal and geographical resolution capable of informing adaptation policy and planning.

+1.5 °C and +2.0 °C↗

A High-resolution Regional Wave Resource Characterization For The U.S. West Coast

Objectives/Scope: Wave resource characterization is a critical step for wave energy converter deployment in the coastal ocean and relies on long-term, high-resolution wave datasets. This study presents a detailed modeling study of the wave resource along the U.S. West Coast (Washington, Oregon, and California), a coastal region that was identified with high wave energy potential in earlier studies. Methods, Procedures, Process: The wave hindcast covers a 32-year period from 1979 to 2010 and is based on a multi-resolution, unstructured-grid SWAN model framework. Model configuration closely follows and meets the requirements recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Specification (IEC TS) for wave energy resource assessment and characterization (Class 2 - feasibility study). The model domain covers the entire U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the West Coast and has a spatial resolution varying from ~300 m in the nearshore region (20 km from the shoreline) to ~2500 m within the EEZ and ~5000 m at the open boundary, which extends beyond the EEZ. The model was forced by hourly 2-D wave spectra produced by a two-way nested WaveWatch III model, which covers the global ocean domain and the broader U.S. West Coast region domain with spatial resolutions of 0.5 degree and 10 arc-minutes, respectively. Both wave models are forced by hourly, 0.5-degree wind forcing obtained from NCEP’s Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) product. Results, Observations, Conclusions: The standard model output for the SWAN model includes 3-hourly output for the six IEC wave resource parameters (e.g., omnidirectional wave power) at each grid point and hourly 2-D spectra at more than 50 NDBC buoys. Extensive model validation was achieved by comparing the six model-predicted IEC parameters with those derived from field observations at representative NDBC buoys. The error statistics indicated the model’s satisfactory performance. Further analyses were conducted to systematically evaluate the temporal and spatial distributions of wave energy potential and wave climate along the U.S. West Coast. Results suggest that Washington and Oregon coasts have similar nearshore wave resource, which is significantly higher than resources in Southern California. Strong seasonal variations are also observed, e.g., high wave energy tends to occur in the winter months. In summary, this study produced the first high-resolution, comprehensive dataset on wave energy distribution along the U.S. West Coast. Novel/Additive Information: The results are being used by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to update the MHK Atlas, which was originally derived from NOAA’s 4-arc-minute WaveWatch III model output. In addition, the monthly averaged wave energy climatology dataset can be readily shared to support a variety of research and application efforts within the EEZ of the U.S. West Coast.

Wang, Taiping↗

Snowmass 2021 Cosmic Frontier White Paper: Cosmology with Millimeter-Wave Line Intensity Mapping

Next-generation tests of fundamental physics and cosmology using large scale structure require measurements over large volumes of the Universe, including high redshifts inaccessible to present-day surveys. Line intensity mapping, an emerging technique that detects the integrated emission of atomic and molecular lines without resolving sources, can efficiently map cosmic structure over a wide range of redshifts. Observations at millimeter wavelengths detect far-IR emission lines such as CO/[CII], and take advantage of observational and analysis techniques developed by CMB experiments. These measurements can provide constraints with unprecedented precision on the physics of inflation, neutrino masses, light relativistic species, dark energy and modified gravity, and dark matter, among many other science goals. In this white paper we forecast the sensitivity requirements for future ground-based mm-wave intensity mapping experiments to enable transformational cosmological constraints. We outline a staged experimental program to steadily improve sensitivity, and describe the necessary investments in developing detector technology and analysis techniques.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Wave and Offshore Wind Resource in the U.S. Pacific Ocean Minor Outlying Islands

Coastal environments such as islands have unique opportunities for renewable energy resources. This work explores the wave and offshore wind energy potential for the U.S. Pacific Ocean Minor Outlying Islands, including Baker Island, Howland Island, Jarvis Island, Johnston Atoll, Kingman Reef, Palmyra Atoll, and Wake Island. A numerical wave model based on WAVEWATCH III and SWAN (both are NWS / NOAA models) was developed, validated, and executed to generate a 32-year hindcast dataset suitable for resource characterization for each island. A complementary offshore wind resource characterization is provided for the same time period based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). Each island has five netcdf files: 1. wave_[island]_annual_J_map.nc: the data used to generate the map of annual averaged omnidirectional wave power (J [kW/m]) 2. wave_[island]_100m_IEC: six IEC parameters at 100m isobath from 1979/01/01 to 2020/12/31, output hourly 3. wave_[island]_5km_IEC: six IEC parameters at 5km from the shoreline 1979/01/01 to 2020/12/31, output hourly 4. wind_island_100mASL_windspeed_timeseries.nc: wind speed timeseries from ERA5 at 100 m above sea level within a 60 km radius of the island (m/s) 1979/01/01 to 2010/12/31, output hourly 5. wind_island_100mASL_winddirection_timeseries.nc: wind direction timeseries from ERA5 at 100 m above sea level within a 60 km radius of the island (degrees) 1979/01/01 to 2010/12/31, output hourly

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Ocean Energy: Markets - Currency - Impact. Dimension of & Choices in the Technology Development Space: Preprint

This paper presents considerations of the employment of ocean wave energy to support different energy demand side applications. The key aspect in these considerations is the wave energy supported achievable positive impact and associated tangible contribution in service of common societal good and of the natural commons. The level of impact that can be delivered is dependent on both, the level of contribution of the supported energy use application, and the compatibility and unique suitability of the wave energy resource and its characteristics with the needs of the application. Thus, a variety of ocean wave energy markets, the key value indicators or "currency' in which these markets trade the value delivered and the achievable positive impact, are reflected upon. Ocean wave energy supported acquisition of high quality ocean system data across a wide spectrum of system properties is identified as a highly impactful application enabling and/or improving a comprehensive range of impactful ocean system activities. The technology development process towards these markets and desired impacts requires relevant technology development progress guidance and metrics. Going beyond technology readiness levels and technology performance levels, the notion of further technology development progress scales towards high impact and high contribution are proposed. These scales and the associated technology properties can be regarded as additional technology development dimensions to span-up the technology development space in which desired system capability and functional requirement choices and subsequent ideation, innovation, research and technology development decisions can and are to be made.

data market↗

Real-Time Bayesian Inference at Extreme Scale: A Digital Twin for Tsunami Early Warning Applied to the Cascadia Subduction Zone

We present a Bayesian inversion-based digital twin that employs acoustic pressure data from seafloor sensors, along with 3D coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion in real time and forecast tsunami propagation toward coastlines for early warning with quantified uncertainties. Our target is the Cascadia subduction zone, with one billion parameters. Computing the posterior mean alone would require 50 years on a 512 GPU machine. Instead, exploiting the shift invariance of the parameter-to-observable map and devising novel parallel algorithms, we induce a fast offline–online decomposition. The offline component requires just one adjoint wave propagation per sensor; using MFEM, we scale this part of the computation to the full El Capitan system (43,520 GPUs) with 92% weak parallel efficiency. Moreover, given real-time data, the online component exactly solves the Bayesian inverse and forecasting problems in 0.2 seconds on a modest GPU system, a ten-billion-fold speedup.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning for Idaho National Laboratory

Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) mission is to discover, demonstrate, and secure innovative nuclear energy solutions, other clean energy options, and critical infrastructure. This INL’s Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan (VARP) was developed to enable and sustain that mission while ensuring the viability of operations considering expected climate change impacts. The VARP was developed according to the narrative requirements from the “Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning Guidance, Version 1.2” document issued in February 2022. A prescribed process was used to identify mission-critical systems and components, determine historical and expected climate impacts, and develop resilient solutions. Experts from across INL, including operations staff, researchers, and climate scientists supplied input to the process. Analyses of climate modeling sources revealed that under scenarios of higher and lower greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5), INL anticipates an increase in climate hazards, including drought, heat waves, wildfire, and precipitation. Increased frequency and duration of climatic hazards forecasts high impacts on certain mission-critical asset and infrastructure types. Utilizing the VARP Risk Assessment Tool, projected high climate hazard impacts across multiple asset and infrastructure types at the INL include energy generation and distribution systems, Site buildings, specialized or mission-critical equipment, and transportation and fleet infrastructure. Some of these mission-critical asset and infrastructure types maintain high adaptive capacity to climatic changes; however, others may need additional adaptive capacity to withstand increased frequency and duration of climate hazards. INL identified close to 300 resilient solutions that were consolidated into 11 solution categories to be tracked in the Department of Energy Sustainability Dashboard. The identified solutions are a starting point for future project development and analysis. These data are intended to inform decision makers on climate issues and potential solutions across INL and associated communities. The VARP is not intended to be a budget tool or project decision document on its own, but rather one of many tools used by decision makers to establish resilient priorities. This initial document provides the framework and foundation to resilient solutions. In the coming years, each solution needs to be fully developed, costed, and prioritized based on mission-critical risk and funding priorities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Attention Network Forecasts Time-to-Failure in Laboratory Shear Experiments

Rocks under stress deform by creep mechanisms that include formation and slip on small-scale internal cracks. Intragranular cracks and slip along grain contacts release energy as elastic waves termed acoustic emissions (AE). AEs are thought to contain predictive information that can be used for fault failure forecasting. Here, we present a method using unsupervised classification and an attention network to forecast labquakes using AE waveform features. Our data were generated in a laboratory setting using a biaxial shearing device with granular fault gouge intended to mimic the conditions of tectonic faults. Here, we analyzed the temporal evolution of AEs generated throughout several hundred laboratory earthquake cycles. We used a Conscience Self-Organizing Map (CSOM) to perform topologically ordered vector quantization based on waveform properties. The resulting map was used to interactively cluster AEs. We examined the clusters over time to identify those with predictive ability. Finally, we used a variety of LSTM and attention-based networks to test the predictive power of the AE clusters. By tracking cumulative waveform features over the seismic cycle, the network is able to forecast the time-to-failure (TTF) of lab earthquakes. Our results show that analyzing the data to isolate predictive signals and using a more sophisticated network architecture are key to robustly forecasting labquakes. In the future, this method could be applied on tectonic faults to monitor earthquakes and augment early warning systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Importance of Convective Stage on Out-of-Cloud Convectively Induced Turbulence from High-Resolution Simulations

Turbulence (clear-air, mountain wave, convectively induced) is an aviation hazard that is a challenge to forecast due to the coarse resolution ultilized in operational weather models. Turbulence indices are commonly used to aid pilots in avoiding turbulence, but these indices have been designed and calibrated for midlatitude clear-air turbulence prediction (e.g., the Ellrod index). A significant limitation with current convectively induced turbulence (CIT) prediction is the lack of storm stage dependency. In this study, six high-resolution simulations of tropical oceanic and midlatitude continental convection are performed to characterize the turbulent environment near various convective types during the developing and mature stages. Second-order structure functions, a diagnostic commonly used to identify turbulence in turbulence prediction systems, are used to characterize the probability of turbulence for various convective types. Turbulence likelihood was found to be independent of region (i.e., tropical vs midlatitude) but dependent on convective stage. The probability of turbulence increased near developing convection for the majority of cases. Additional analysis of static stability and vertical wind shear, indicators of turbulence potential, showed that the convective environment near developing convection was more favorable for turbulence production than mature convection. Near developing convection, static stability decreased and vertical wind shear increased. Vertical wind shear near mature and developing convection was found to be weakly correlated to turbulence intensity in both the tropics and the midlatitudes. Finally, this study emphasizes the need for turbulence avoidance guidelines for the aviation community that are dependent on convective stage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Convectively Inhibitive Qualities of Heat Waves in the Southeast and their Enhancement of Rainfall Events

INTRODUCTION Started from a simple question from initial anecdotal observations: • On June 14th, 2022, in the midst of a string of hot days, there was a particularly intense rain event that occurred. • There looks to be some synoptic influence, but the storms showed major convective growth in a short period of time. • I began to wonder: What is it about these sustained heat events that contribute to occasional explosive convection? SULI Intern Joe Gott conducted analyses on “zerohour” HRRR gridded products for June 2022, using a qualitatively defined “heat wave” 10-day period compared to the rest of the month. • Found that through the various regions of Savannah River Site (SRS) and the broader Central Savannah River Area (CSRA), there seemed to be greater stabilization in the nocturnal boundary layer, and destabilization in the daytime boundary layer. • Results are consistent with Huang et al. (2023), who found similar nocturnal stabilization in Melbourne using aircraft soundings. • I wondered if there is a connection between heat wave rainfall events and the “Convective Inhibition” phenomenon seen in severe weather forecasting. • A “cap” is seen in the morning, trapping moisture near the ground until a mid-day mechanism (dryline) allows spontaneous convection.

Wermter, Joseph [Savannah River National Laborator↗

On the influence of ENSO complexity on Pan-Pacific coastal wave extremes

Significance This study demonstrates how the main wave regimes in the Pacific, in particular related to tropical and extratropical storm activity, are activated by different El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections patterns. By combining these robust relationships with the latest theoretical advances in ENSO research, a mathematical model of wave energy modulation is derived. It allows a better representation of wave extremes over a range of time scales wider than previously possible with the previous baseline understanding of ENSO’s influence on coastal impacts. This paves the way for unprecedented seasonal to monthly forecasts of coastal hazards around the densely populated Pacific basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts, processes and projections of the quasi-biennial oscillation

In the tropical stratosphere, deep layers of eastward and westward winds encircle the globe and descend regularly from the upper stratosphere to the tropical tropopause. With a complete cycle typically lasting almost 2.5 years, this quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is arguably the most predictable mode of atmospheric variability that is not linked to the changing seasons. Here, the QBO affects climate phenomena outside the tropical stratosphere, including ozone transport, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and its high predictability could enable better forecasts of these phenomena if models can accurately represent the coupling processes. Climate and forecasting models are increasingly able to simulate stratospheric oscillations resembling the QBO, but exhibit common systematic errors such as weak amplitude in the lowermost tropical stratosphere. Uncertainties about the waves that force the oscillation, particularly the momentum fluxes from small-scale gravity waves excited by deep convection, make its simulation challenging. Improved representation of the processes governing the QBO is expected to lead to better forecasts of the oscillation and its impacts, increased understanding of unusual events such as the two QBO disruptions observed since 2016, and more reliable future projections of QBO behaviour under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observations of extreme wave runup events on the US Pacific Northwest coast

Extreme, tsunami-like wave runup events in the absence of earthquakes or landslides have been attributed to trapped waves over shallow bathymetry, long waves created by atmospheric disturbances, and long waves generated by abrupt breaking. These runup events are associated with inland excursions of hundreds of meters and periods of minutes. While the theory of radiation stress implies that nearshore energy transfer from the carrier waves to the infragravity waves can also lead to very large runup, there have not been observations of runup events induced by this process with magnitudes and periods comparable to the other three mechanisms. This work presents observations of several runup events in the US Pacific Northwest that are comparable to extreme runup events related to the other three mechanisms. It also discusses possible generation mechanisms and shows that energy transfer from carrier waves to bound infragravity waves is a plausible generation mechanism. In addition, a method to predict and forecast extreme runup events with similar characteristics is presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Simons Observatory: science goals and forecasts for the enhanced Large Aperture Telescope

We describe updated scientific goals for the wide-field, millimeter-wave survey that will be produced by the Simons Observatory (SO). Significant upgrades to the 6-meter SO Large Aperture Telescope (LAT) are expected to be complete by 2028, and will include a doubled mapping speed with 30,000 new detectors and an automated data reduction pipeline. In addition, a new photovoltaic array will supply most of the observatory's power. The LAT survey will cover about 60% of the sky at a regular observing cadence, with five times the angular resolution and ten times the map depth of the Planck satellite. The science goals are to: (1) determine the physical conditions in the early universe and constrain the existence of new light particles; (2) measure the integrated distribution of mass, electron pressure, and electron momentum in the late-time universe, and, in combination with optical surveys, determine the neutrino mass and the effects of dark energy via tomographic measurements of the growth of structure at redshifts z ≲ 3; (3) measure the distribution of electron density and pressure around galaxy groups and clusters, and calibrate the effects of energy input from galaxy formation on the surrounding environment; (4) produce a sample of more than 30,000 galaxy clusters, and more than 100,000 extragalactic millimeter sources, including regularly sampled AGN light-curves, to study these sources and their emission physics; (5) measure the polarized emission from magnetically aligned dust grains in our Galaxy, to study the properties of dust and the role of magnetic fields in star formation; (6) constrain asteroid regoliths, search for Trans-Neptunian Objects, and either detect or eliminate large portions of the phase space in the search for Planet 9; and (7) provide a powerful new window into the transient universe on time scales of minutes to years, concurrent with observations from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory of overlapping sky.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗