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At least 55 records · Page 3

Predicting Airspace Capacity Impacts Using the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation

Convective weather is currently the largest contributor to air traffic delays in the United States. In order to make effective traffic flow management decisions to mitigate these delays, weather forecasts must be made as early and as accurately as possible. A forecast product that could be used to mitigate convective weather impacts is the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation. This product provides forecasts of cloud water content and convective top heights at 0- to 8-hour look-ahead times. The objective of this study was to examine a method of predicting the impact of convective weather on air traffic sector capacities using these forecasts. Polygons representing forecast convective weather were overlaid at multiple flight levels on a sector map to calculate the fraction of each sector covered by weather. The fractional volume coverage was used as the primary metric to determine convection s impact on sectors. Results reveal that the forecasts can be used to predict the probability and magnitude of weather impacts on sector capacity up to eight hours in advance.

Russell, Carl↗

Investigating Space Weather Events Impacting the Spitzer Space Telescope

Our understanding of the dynamical process in the space environment has increased dramatically. A relatively new field of study called "Space Weather" has emerged in the last few decades. Fundamental to the study of space weather is an understanding of how space weather events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections impact spacecraft in varying orbits and distances around the Sun. Specialized space weather satellite monitoring systems operated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) allow scientists to predict space weather events affecting critical systems on and orbiting the Earth. However, the Spitzer Space Telescope is in an orbit far outside the areas covered by those space weather monitoring systems. This poses a challenge for the Spitzer's Mission Operations Team in determining whether space weather events affect Spitzer.

solar flare↗

Assimilation of Polar Orbiting Space-Based Data and Its Impact on Weather Prediction

This portion of the Data Assimilation and Numerical Weather Prediction Benefits presentation will describe: the need for remotely sensed data, the types of observations that have been made and will be available, how satellite data have been and are being assimilated, the impact of the data on weather analysis and prediction in both the U.S and abroad and the potential impact of new observing systems on NWP. Specific observing systems that will be discussed include: satellite temperature and moisture soundings/radiances (TOVS, ATOVS, AIRS/AMSU), satellite surface winds from both passive and active microwave atmospheric motion winds (from MODIS or MISR) precipitation measurements clouds and land surface measurements (e.g. from MODIS) lidar wind profiles.

Atlas, Robert M.↗

Case studies of NOAA 6/TIROS N data impact on numerical weather forecasts

The impact of satellite temperatures from systems which predate the launching of the third generation of vertical sounding instruments aboard TIROS N (13 Oct 1978) and NOAA 6 (27 June 1979) is reported. The first evaluation of soundings from TIROS N found that oceanic, cloudy retrievals over NH mid latitudes show a cold bias in winter. It is confirmed for both satellite systems using a larger data base. It is shown that RMS differences between retrievals and colocated radiosonde observations within the swath 30-60N during the 1979-80 winter were generally 2-3K in clear air and higher for cloudy columns. A positive impact of TIROS N temperatures on the analysis of synoptic weather systems is shown. Analyses prepared from only satellite temperatures seemed to give a better definition to weather systems' thermal structure than that provided by corresponding NMC analyses without satellite data. The results of a set of 14 numerical forecast experiments performed with the PE model of the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) are summarized; these were designed to test the impact of TIROS N and NOAA 6 temperatures within the IMS analysis and forecast cycle. The satellite data coverage over the NH, the mean area/period S1 and RMS verification scores and the spatial distribution of SAT versus NO SAT forecast differences are discussed and it is concluded that positive forecast impact occurs over ocean areas where the extra data improve the specification which is otherwise available from conventional observations. The forecast impact for three cases from the same set of experiments was examined and it is found that satellite temperatures, observed over the Atlantic Ocean contribute to better forecasts over Iceland and central Europe although a worse result was verified over Spain. It is also shown that the better scores of a forecast based also on satellite data and verified over North America actually represent a mixed impact on the forecast synoptic patterns. A superior 48 hr 500 mb forecast over the western US due to the better initial specification afforded by satellite observed temperatures over the North Pacific Ocean is shown.

Druyan, L. M.↗

Estimates of Future Numerical Weather Prediction Impacts from Hyperspectral Sounders

The United States’ satellite programs are currently in the process of evaluating the future of satellite observations of the Earth’s atmosphere, both as an individual nation and within the context of international partnerships. In an effort to better understand the impacts of various alternatives, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework has been utilized to evaluate several configurations of the international hyperspectral infrared sounder constellation from the perspective of global numerical weather prediction (NWP). This was done with an emphasis on the proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) Sounder (GXS), planned to launch in the mid-2030s, and similar planned missions from international partners. GXS, in addition to contributions from EUMETSAT and JMA, will form a global ring of geostationary sounders consistent with the WMO’s 2040 vision. In addition to a novel geostationary IR sounder program, considerations extend to the future of the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) sounder program with the upcoming demise of several existing instruments and plans for future missions ongoing. The GMAO OSSE framework has examined the potential roles of GEO and LEO sounders in weather prediction improvement. Overall, the inclusion of both GEO sounders in a global ring and LEO sounders produces the most beneficial observation impact and the most accurate global weather forecasts as evaluated using several metrics, including hurricanes and the FSOI.

Erica Mcgrath-Spangler↗

Monitoring Intense Thunderstorms in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region

SERVIR Goal: Use NASA EOS (Earth Observing System) assets to build early warning capabilities and facilitate timely disaster response for high impact weather events in the HKH (Hindu-Kush Himalayan) region. Objectives: 1. High Impact Weather Assessment Toolkit(HIWAT) for the HKH region; 2. Jointly develop HIWAT capabilities/training with ICIMOD (International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development); 3. Demonstrate capability in end-user environment; 4. Transition HIWAT to ICIMOD.

thunderstorms↗

Verification of the Convection-Allowing Ensemble System over the Hindu Kush Himalaya Region During the 2018 and 2019 Pre-Monsoon Severe Thunderstorm Seasons

Some of the most intense thunderstorms on the planet occur in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region of South-Central Asia. NASA/SERVIR Applied Sciences Team competitive project to develop capacity of severe thunderstorm monitoring and forecasting tool for HKH. Project Goal: Use [NASA] modeling and remote-sensing assets to build early warning capabilities and facilitate timely disaster response for high impact weather events in the HKH region. Specific objectives: 1. Prototype and transition High-Impact Weather Assessment Toolkit (HIWAT) 2. Jointly develop HIWAT capabilities & training with SERVIR’s hub in Kathmandu, Nepal: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) 3. Demonstrate capacity in end-user environment 4. Transition HIWAT system to ICIMOD for future maintenance.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Impact of Weather and Flight Condition on Secondary Booms

The objective of this study is to determine the occurrence and acoustic characteristics of secondary booms from HSCT aircraft for varying weather and flight conditions. Temperature and wind conditions allowing secondary booms will be determined. The ground location and acoustic impact of secondary booms for an HSCT aircraft will be estimated.

Poling, Hugh W.↗

Recommending Low-Cost Compact Space Environment and Space Weather Effects Sensor Suites for NASA Missions

As miniaturized spacecraft (e.g., cubesats and smallsats) and instrumentation become an increasingly indispensable part of space exploration and scientific investigations, it is important to understand their potential susceptibility to space weather impacts resulting from the sometimes volatile space environment. There are a multitude of complexities involved in how space environment interacts with different space hardware/electronics. Measurements of such impacts, however, have been lacking. Therefore, we recommend developing and/or procuring low-cost, low-power consumption, and compact sensor suites (mainly for space weather and impact purposes) and flying them on all future NASA (and, more generally, U.S) missions in order to measure and quantify space weather impacts, in addition to the main instrumentation.

Yihua Zheng↗

Monitoring Extreme Weather in the Hindu Kush Himalaya Region

Why is monitoring extreme weather events important? The HKH (Hindu Kush Himalaya region experiences many extreme weather events, such as thunderstorms, especially during monsoon season. These events can cause economic hardship and loss of life. Monitoring Extreme Weather in the HKH Region is a service in development through SERVIR-Hindu Kush Himalaya that aims to develop a customized numerical weather prediction toolkit to assess these high impact events in this relatively data-sparse region. The High Impact Weather Assessment Toolkit (HIWAT) consists of an ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)model, threat assessments based on the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) missions, and impact assessments based on Landsat and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. In spring 2019, we began validation of forecasted precipitation using station data in Bangladesh and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed with Station data (CHIRPS).

Remote Sensing↗

The Rate of Dielectric Breakdown Weathering of Lunar Regolith in Permanently Shadowed Regions

Large solar energetic particle events may cause dielectric breakdown in the upper 1 mm of regolith in permanently shadowed regions (PSRs). We estimate how the resulting breakdown weathering compares to meteoroid impact weathering. Although the SEP event rates measured by the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) are too low for breakdown to have significantly affected the regolith over the duration of the LRO mission, regolith gardened by meteoroid impacts has been exposed to SEPs for approx.10(exp 6 yr. Therefore, we estimate that breakdown weathering's production rate of vapor and melt in the coldest PSRs is up to 1.8−3. 5 ×10(exp −7) kg/sq m/yr, which is comparable to that produced by meteoroid impacts. Thus, in PSRs, up to 10-25% of the regolith may have been melted or vaporized by dielectric breakdown. Breakdown weathering could also be consistent with observations of the increased porosity ("fairy castles") of PSR regolith. We also show that it is con- ceivable that breakdown-weathered material is present in Apollo soil samples. Consequently, breakdown weathering could be an important process within PSRs, and it warrants further investigation.

Meteoroid↗

Coupling Advanced Modeling and Visualization to Improve High-Impact Tropical Weather Prediction

To meet the goals of extreme weather event warning, this approach couples a modeling and visualization system that integrates existing NASA technologies and improves the modeling system's parallel scalability to take advantage of petascale supercomputers. It also streamlines the data flow for fast processing and 3D visualizations, and develops visualization modules to fuse NASA satellite data.

Shen, Bo-Wen↗

Data Assimilation of SMAP Observations and the Impact on Weather Forecasts and Heat Stress

SPoRT produces real-time LIS soil moisture products for situational awareness and local numerical weather prediction over CONUS, Mesoamerica, and East Africa Currently interact/collaborate with operational partners on evaluation of soil moisture products Drought/fire Extreme heat Convective initiation Flood and water borne diseases Initial efforts to assimilate L2 soil moisture observations from SMOS (as a precursor for SMAP) have been successful Active/passive blended product from SMAP will be assimilated similarly and higher spatial resolution should improve on local-scale processes

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

Laboratory Evaluation of Dynamic Routing of Air Traffic in an En Route Arrival Metering Environment

Arrival air traffic operations in the presence of convective weather are subject to uncertainty in aircraft routing and subsequently in flight trajectory predictability. Current management of arrival operations in weather-impacted airspace results in significant flight delay and suspension of arrival metering operations. The Dynamic Routing for Arrivals in Weather (DRAW) concept provides flight route amendment advisories to Traffic Management Coordinators to mitigate the impacts of convective weather on arrival operations. DRAW provides both weather conflict and schedule information for proposed route amendments, allowing air traffic managers to simultaneously evaluate weather avoidance routing and potential schedule and delay impacts. Subject matter experts consisting of retired Traffic Management Coordinators and retired Sector Controllers with arrival metering experience participated in a simulation study of Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center arrival operations. Data were collected for Traffic Management Coordinator and Sector Controller participants over three weeks of simulation activities in October, 2017. Traffic Management Coordinators reported acceptable workload levels, a positive impact on their ability to manage arrival traffic while using DRAW, and initiated weather mitigation reroutes earlier while using DRAW. Sector Controllers also reported acceptable workload levels while using DRAW.

Air Traffic Management↗

Laboratory Evaluation of Dynamic Routing of Air Traffic in an En Route Arrival Metering Environment

Arrival air traffic operations in the presence of convective weather are subject to uncertainty in aircraft routing and subsequently in flight trajectory predictability. Current management of arrival operations in weather-impacted airspace results in significant flight delay and suspension of arrival metering operations. The Dynamic Routing for Arrivals in Weather (DRAW) concept provides flight route amendment advisories to Traffic Management Coordinators to mitigate the impacts of convective weather on arrival operations. DRAW provides both weather conflict and schedule information for proposed route amendments, allowing air traffic managers to simultaneously evaluate weather avoidance routing and potential schedule and delay impacts. Subject matter experts consisting of retired Traffic Management Coordinators and retired Sector Controllers with arrival metering experience participated in a simulation study of Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center arrival operations. Data were collected for Traffic Management Coordinator and Sector Controller participants over three weeks of simulation activities in October, 2017. Traffic Management Coordinators reported acceptable workload levels, a positive impact on their ability to manage arrival traffic while using DRAW, and initiated weather mitigation reroutes earlier while using DRAW. Sector Controllers also reported acceptable workload levels while using DRAW.

Air Traffic Management↗