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Automated Generation of Weather and Climate Analysis Products

In this project, we automated the production of wind roses for SRS meteorological towers. Graphics were generated for every 4-hour period of the day, for each of the 4 heights of instruments, for every half of each month. A 10-year climatological period consisted of measurements at 15-minute intervals. We used the years 2014-2024 as the wind instruments on the tower were upgraded to sonic anemometers in early 2014. We then compared these wind roses to those from a previous study done in 20031 to analyze the differences and similarities in the winds. The wind roses are used to understand environmental transport conditions at SRS2 .

Chiswell, Steven R.↗

Evaluating the Grid Impact of Oregon Offshore Wind [Slides]

This analysis used high-resolution offshore wind data and a detailed production cost model (PCM) of the Western Interconnection to explore the value and operational impact of integrating offshore wind along Oregon's coastline. Leveraging local technical stakeholder expertise and input, we determined a set of scenarios to explore. These scenarios vary both offshore wind capacities and the Western Interconnection generation and transmission infrastructure. From the scenario modeling and analysis, we identified the following key findings. In addition, we simulated a subset of the scenarios for a range of historical weather years (2007-2013), to understand the robustness of our findings to different weather conditions. Trans-coastal transmission constraints and congestion are the key drivers to the curtailment of Oregon offshore wind. Once power can be delivered into the Willamette Valley, there are few system constraints that lead to a significant curtailment of offshore wind off the coast of Oregon. Approximately 2.6 GW of installed offshore wind capacity can be integrated into Oregon's power system without major upgrades to trans-coastal transmission while avoiding significant curtailment. The system value provided by offshore wind ranges between $\$65$ /MWh and $\$85$ /MWh across the various scenarios considered. Offshore wind heavily influences the flow of the cross Cascade transmission. Across all scenarios, we found a robust relationship of approximately 500-550 MW decrease in the hourly flow of the cross Cascade transmission for every 1,000 MW of hourly offshore wind generation. However, we also found there was not a strong relationship between the highest cross-Cascade transmission flow hours and high offshore wind generation, limiting the extent to which offshore wind can be considered a non-wires alternative to cross cascade transmission. Depending on the meteorological year, 880-1,580 MW and 1,650-3,100 MW can be counted on to serve coastal loads with 2.6 GW and 5 GW of offshore wind capacity, respectively. Offshore wind allows for more optimal daily and hourly scheduling of hydropower, while still complying with various technical and regulatory constraints on the water resource. Oregon offshore wind has the potential to contribute to the evening net load peak in California (i.e., mitigate duck curve challenges), however transmission congestion between California and Oregon limits this contribution. Co-located storage at the point of interconnection for offshore wind reduces curtailment when trans-coastal transmission is not upgraded, providing a non-wires alternative to increase offshore wind capacity beyond 2.6 GW.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Challenges and Opportunities for Basic Efficiency Measures in Low-Income Homes: A Southeast Alaska Case Study

Juneau, Alaska, is the state's capital city and aims to reach 80% renewable energy for the space heating and transportation sectors by 2045. This goal highlights a need to electrify both sectors to take advantage of the inexpensive hydropower available from the local electric utility, Alaska Electric Light and Power. To that end, researchers examined the feasibility of deploying storm windows via a case study of installing storm windows in two local low-income homes. Newer models of storm windows provide an extra layer of insulation over existing windows while preserving operability and views. They can also improve comfort and reduce noise. In addition to conducting pre- and post-installation air leakage tests, energy monitoring, and occupant interviews, researchers worked with the regional housing authority and a local builder to install the storm windows and replace inoperable windows in the two houses in 2021. The team encountered several challenges, including a lack of egress windows, energy data from a wide variety of heating systems, extremely leaky homes, and installation issues, such as windows that were not square. These results point to several barriers to the widespread deployment of window upgrades in the area and open the door to opportunities to design deployment programs that improve safety and efficiency.

cold climate↗

Utilizing GEOPHIRES-X Beyond Electricity

The GEOPHIRES tool is a techno-economic simulator for evaluating the thermal performance and cost-competitiveness of geothermal plants for electricity, heating, and/or cooling. The tool combines reservoir, wellbore, and surface plant cost and performance models to estimate overall techno-economic metrics such as net present value or levelized cost of electricity, heating, or cooling. We recently upgraded the tool to an object-oriented Python framework, presented in an accompanying paper. As part of the upgrade, we enhanced the capability to simulate the performance of geothermal plants for heating and cooling, which is the topic of this paper. Specifically, we (1) integrated absorption chillers to investigate the performance of utilizing geothermal heat for cooling, (2) integrated a heat pump module to boost the geothermal temperature and thermal output, (3) integrated a district heating module to estimate heating demand for a district based on local weather data, and simulated heat supply with geothermal energy and peaking boilers, and (4) integrated GEOPHIRES as an engine in the dGeo simulator to perform a geospatial analysis of geothermal district heating feasibility across a large region (e.g., a state or the entire United States) utilizing resource and thermal demand maps. This paper presents background information and case studies for several of these heating and cooling end-use options in GEOPHIRES.

absorption chiller↗

Net-zero Microgrid Program Report: Microrred de la Montaña Feasibility Study (Executive Summary Extended)

This feasibility study provides the technical and economic rationale for the Microrred de la Montaña as a viable solution for supplying reliable and resilient electricity to an underserved region in Puerto Rico – a region that is the first to be disconnected from the grid and the last to be restored, enduring months long outages. It begins the process of the development of the microgrid through conceptual design, engineering, detailed electrical design, implementation, and operation. The Microrred de la Montaña is organized under the governance of the Cooperativa Hidroeléctrica de la Montaña (Cooperativa) which has legal status as a cooperative and power provider under the laws of Puerto Rico. The members are the municipalities of Adjuntas, Jayuya, Lares and Utuado with a combined population of 90,000. These municipalities are in central Puerto Rico – a mountainous region that is extremely vulnerable to weather events and excessive, long-duration power outages and are among the poorest and most disadvantaged regions in Puerto Rico. Funding from external sources is necessary to acquire the resources for a resilient power delivery system. Regulatory support is necessary to establish operational relationships with the incumbent power providers. The Microrred de la Montaña is envisioned as a resilient microgrid that manages distributed energy resources – local solar, storage, and hydroelectricity over an upgraded distribution network within the boundaries of four municipalities. This feasibility study provides the results of an extensive techno-economic analysis to form a sound basis for decision-making by community leaders, their constituents, funding and investment agencies, and regulators to realize the benefits that are achievable by fully implementing the design and planning recommended for the Microrred de la Montaña.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 6: Universal Access to Safe and Comfortable Home Temperatures

The LA100 Equity Strategies project integrates community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. This chapter focuses on housing weatherization and cooling technologies as means to increase access to safe and comfortable home temperatures. Lack of cooling access and use can have severe health impacts on building occupants during heat waves. Specifically, NREL developed and used a residential building stock model to simulate the energy use of 50,000 dwellings representing the diversity of housing types, appliances, climate zones, and household incomes across Los Angeles. We compared a baseline scenario with seven upgrade scenarios. Five scenarios cooled the entire household and featured cooling systems at varying efficiency levels with various improvements to the envelope, roof, and shading, and two scenarios cooled a single room in a household with no prior cooling using either a room air-conditioning or a heat pump system. For each scenario, we evaluated impacts on utility bills, payback periods, and changes in energy burdens, as well as ability to achieve safe and comfortable temperatures. We also examined the effects of building types (multifamily vs. single-family) on indoor air temperatures. Based on the results of modeling, analysis, and community guidance, we identified six short-term and two long-term strategies for improving access to building envelope upgrades and cooling strategies that could save lives and maintain safe home temperatures for Los Angeles' low-income households during heat waves. Research was guided by input from the community engagement process, and associated equity strategies are presented in alignment with that guidance.

air conditioning↗

Automated Generation of Weather and Climate Analysis Products

Wind roses are an important part to site operations as they depict the wind speed and direction percentage over a time period. In this project, I automated the production of wind roses for SRS meteorological towers. I developed a script to sequence through the dataset by period and create a wind rose for each of those period sets. Graphics were generated for every 4-hour period of the day, for each of the 4 heights of the instruments, for every half of each month. A 10-year climatological period consisted of wind speed and directions measurements at 15-minute intervals. We used the years 2014-2024 as the wind instruments on the tower were upgraded to sonic anemometers in early 2014. I then compared these wind roses to those from a previous study done in 2003 to analyze the differences and similarities in the wind patterns. The wind roses are also used to understand environmental transport conditions at SRS. When comparing the different heights of the anemometers to the 2003 report, there is a similarity in the fact that the direction is relatively the same across the levels, with the wind speeds increasing as you get higher in the air. When comparing the season of our graphs against the 2003 report, we noticed that the winter and summer months appear to have very similar wind directions. However, in the spring we noticed that there were more southerly winds compared to the 2003 report which had more westerly winds. Finally, in the fall months, we noticed that there was a higher percentage of northeasterly winds, while the 2003 report showed more southeasterly winds. We can use these summaries to estimate the directional dependence of dose that the surrounding areas receive throughout the year according to time of day.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Guest Editorial: Planning and operation of resilient distribution system for integrated multi-energy

Resilience is the ability of power systems to prepare for and adapt to low-probability, high-impact incidents and withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions. With the ageing of electricity distribution infrastructure and increasing threats of weather-related incidents and natural disasters, the need to effectively enhance the resilience of the electricity distribution system has become urgent and has attracted worldwide attention. Although there are an increasing number of publications related to enhancing resilience strategies, resilience is an emerging concept in power systems. Existing practices are mostly focused on deploying distributed energy resources (DERs) and microgrids, hardening the existing infrastructures and building redundant capacities. However, from a broader perspective, resilience enhancement of power distribution system is a systematic engineering, involving long-term system planning and upgrading (e.g., deployment of smart grid technologies and intelligent switches), short-term proactive scheduling, real-time robust and resilient control of DERs, and post-event restoration and recovery strategies. Based on this point, this Special Issue in IET Energy System Integration focuses on soliciting the most recent and original technologies, scheduling and control strategies for improving the resilience of power distribution system. Eight papers are presented in this Special Issue, covering various aspects related to resilience enhancement of power distribution system, including fault-tolerant frequency measurement, robust scheduling of integrated electricity and district heating systems, robust control of DERs, efficient methods for safety verification as well as novel graph theory-based approach to restore the distribution systems after multiple simultaneous faults. A brief introduction of these 8 papers is provided below.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Decision-Dependent Uncertainty-Aware Distribution System Planning Under Wildfire Risk

The interaction between power systems and wildfires can be dangerous and costly. Distribution grids can be liable for the outbreak of wildfires during extreme weather. In wildfire-prone areas, investment planning should consider the impact of operational actions on wildfire-related uncertainties affecting line failure likelihood. Here, in this case, endogenous-based uncertainty modeling should comprise the backbone of the investment planning model viz-a-viz the inability of standard exogenous-based uncertainty modeling. Therefore, we propose a decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) aware methodology to optimize investment portfolios for distribution systems, considering that high power-flow levels in high-threat areas can ignite wildfires and increase line failure probability. The methodology identifies the best combination of upgrades (new lines, hardening existing lines, and placing switching devices). Methodologically, we propose a two-stage distributionally robust planning optimization problem with DDU that considers the distribution system's multiperiod operation. The first stage determines optimal switching actions and line investments, and the second stage evaluates the worst-case expected operational cost under a DDU framework designed to account for the endogenous impact of power-flow levels and hardening investment decisions in the line failure probabilities. An iterative method is tailored to handle the problem and numerical experiments demonstrate a more prepared grid to deal with wildfire risk.

Power systems investment planning↗

Household Energy Burden in Lawrence, Massachusetts [Slides]

The City of Lawrence consists of 18 census tracts, of those, 9 census tracts have an average energy burden (the percent of income spent on energy bills) of 6% or greater. The Lawrence Stakeholders Coalition's (LSC) main goal is to "Reduce energy burden and create well-paying local jobs and businesses by increasing the distribution and use of sustainable technologies such as heat pumps, community and rooftop solar, and weatherization." As part of that goal, the LSC is interested in understanding Lawrence's pathway to electrification, specifically through the building sector. This technical assistance aims to assist the LSC's electrification and energy burden reduction planning by: 1) Identifying the most energy-burdened households by owner-occupied and renter-occupied housing status; 2) Identifying and quantifying the characteristics of the most energy-burdened housing units by housing type, age, and heating fuel type; 3) Identifying the tenure and housing types of the most energy-burdened and prevalent households for subsequent ResStock analysis of cost-effective efficiency upgrades.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Multifamily Building Stock Modeling: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-17-00701

U.S. multifamily buildings house 35 million households, consuming 4 quads of source energy and spending $48 billion on utility bills every year. Almost all of these households live in urban areas, where cities are taking the lead on setting aggressive energy goals. Cities currently do not have the data and tools necessary to identify and target opportunities to save energy in their building stock. Building on the open-source, OpenStudio-based ResStock platform, this project will extend the publicly-available ResStock modeling capabilities to the multifamily sector, enabling Radiant Labs, and others, to partner with cities to market and strategically deploy cost-effective, energy efficiency (EE) upgrades directly to high-priority households. Radiant Labs has been successful in using ResStock's single-family capabilities to provide value to the City of Boulder, Colorado. However, lack of multifamily capabilities in ResStock is a roadblock for Radiant Labs working with New York City, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., and other cities that have expressed significant interest in working with them. In addition, other cities, companies, and utilities can use these open-source capabilities to grow their EE portfolios, thereby multiplying the impact of this project. This work also enables national-scale analysis of EE potential in multifamily buildings, which is of strong interest to a variety of stakeholders, including the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis (EPSA), DOE Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP), U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), and the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Data Management for Digital Twin Implementation: Enhancing Existing SCADA Architecture for INL's CITRC Test Distribution System

The United States power grid will continue to experience stress from aging infrastructure, extreme weather, and increasing loads. In order to strengthen resiliency, researchers need to run tests and simulations that model real-life infrastructure. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is creating a digital twin of its Critical Infrastructure Test Range Complex (CITRC). CITRC is an at-scale grid testbed which can be configured in utility-realistic distribution scenarios for a variety of tests, such as advanced grid protection and control. A digital twin of this infrastructure would support in-depth tests/simulations without risking physical consequences, before trialing devices under test at-scale. This project focuses on the data acquisition part of constructing a digital twin. It investigates the Supervisory Data Acquisition and Control (SCADA) system of CITRC and explores ways to utilize this system for the twin. Future “ideal” at-scale implementations such as upgraded equipment, modern communication protocols, and automation applications are also explored.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Repowering: The Other Side of the Reliability Coin

Extreme weather, cracked backsheets, severe PID, poorly built modules, and installation flaws - all can compromise a solar plant's health and force repowering long before end of life. With more than 70% of U.S. PV capacity less than seven years old, the fleet is young, but its rapid expansion has introduced new materials and system designs that are still being tested under real-world conditions. As a result, reliability - not economics - is what most often drives repowering decisions. Repowering is frequently assumed to be an economically motivated choice, but our work shows that reliability concerns are the real trigger. Drawing from industry interviews, case studies, and modeling, we highlight the physical, electrical, and policy barriers owners face when deciding whether to repair, repower, or decommission. At the same time, repowering can create opportunities: renewed interconnection periods, improved energy yields, and strategic upgrades to extend system value. We present a quantitative framework using NLR's System Advisor Model (SAM) and PV in Circular Economy (PV ICE) tool to evaluate trade-offs across financial, material, and energy impacts. These findings provide practical guidance for navigating the realities of repowering today and underscore the critical role of reliability in shaping the future performance and sustainability of the PV fleet.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Transportation Fuel Resiliency: Case Study of Tampa Bay

Here, this case study presents findings from an analysis of the emergency preparation and response for Hurricane Irma, the most recent hurricane impacting the Tampa Bay region. The Tampa Bay region, in particular, is considered one of the most vulnerable areas in the United States to hurricanes and severe tropical weather. A particular vulnerability stems from how all petroleum fuel comes to the area by marine transport through Port Tampa Bay, which can be (and has been in the past) impacted by hurricanes and tropical storms. The case study discussed in this paper covers previous fuel challenges, vulnerabilities, and lessons learned by key Tampa Bay public agency fleets during the past 10 years (mainly as a result of the most recent 2017 Hurricane Irma) to explore ways to improve the area’s resilience to natural disasters. Some of the strategies for fuel-supply resiliency include maintaining emergency fuel supply, prioritizing fuel use, strategically placing the assets around the region to help with recovery, investing in backup generators (including generators powered by alternative fuels), planning for redundancies in fuel supply networks, developing more efficient communication procedures between public fleets, hurricane preparedness-planning, and upgrading street drainage systems to reduce the threat of local flooding.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

SYMBA: An end-to-end VLBI synthetic data generation pipeline

Realistic synthetic observations of theoretical source models are essential for our understanding of real observational data. In using synthetic data, one can verify the extent to which source parameters can be recovered and evaluate how various data corruption effects can be calibrated. These studies are the most important when proposing observations of new sources, in the characterization of the capabilities of new or upgraded instruments, and when verifying model-based theoretical predictions in a direct comparison with observational data. We present the SYnthetic Measurement creator for long Baseline Arrays (SYMBA), a novel synthetic data generation pipeline for Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations. SYMBA takes into account several realistic atmospheric, instrumental, and calibration effects. Here, we used SYMBA to create synthetic observations for the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), a millimetre VLBI array, which has recently captured the first image of a black hole shadow. After testing SYMBA with simple source and corruption models, we study the importance of including all corruption and calibration effects, compared to the addition of thermal noise only. Using synthetic data based on two example general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD) model images of M 87, we performed case studies to assess the image quality that can be obtained with the current and future EHT array for different weather conditions. Our synthetic observations show that the effects of atmospheric and instrumental corruptions on the measured visibilities are significant. Despite these effects, we demonstrate how the overall structure of our GRMHD source models can be recovered robustly with the EHT2017 array after performing calibration steps, which include fringe fitting, a priori amplitude and network calibration, and self-calibration. With the planned addition of new stations to the EHT array in the coming years, images could be reconstructed with higher angular resolution and dynamic range. In our case study, these improvements allowed for a distinction between a thermal and a non-thermal GRMHD model based on salient features in reconstructed images.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Hydroclimate-coupled framework for assessing power system resilience under summer drought and climate change

Extreme drought, exacerbated by climate change, increasingly threatens power system resilience, and a systematic assessment of such impacts is challenging due to the unpredictability of drought and their associated modeling complexity. Here, to address the challenge, this research develops a hydroclimate-coupled power system resilience assessment framework that enables systematic modeling of drought and climate change impacts on generation, transmission, and demand sectors. Applying the framework to the 2025 Eastern U.S. power grid — comprising 6,055 at-risk generators — under climate-induced summer drought scenarios (including SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) from 2023 to 2100, the study finds that climate-induced droughts could jeopardize the power system’s reliability to a greater extent than historical events, potentially leading to widespread load shedding. More specifically, the study reveals that under the twenty-one representative drought scenarios, the loss of load expectation (LOLE) of the grid could range from 34.77 to 91.48 days per summer. The simulations indicate that implementing resilience enhancement strategies is crucial to ensure reliable system operation, which encompasses initiatives such as demand response, upgrading open cooling systems, and transmission expansion. In all, these findings underscore the urgent need for proactive planning and investment in resilient U.S. power systems to mitigate the impacts of extreme drought events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaluating Diesel/Biofuel Blends Using Artificial Neural Networks and Linear/Nonlinear Equations

Abstract The use of biomass-derived additives in diesel fuel mixtures has the potential to increase the fuel’s efficiency, decrease the formation of particulate matter during its combustion, and retain the fuel’s behavior in cold weather. To this end, identifying compounds that enable these behaviors is paramount. The present work utilizes a series of linear and non-linear equations in series with artificial neural networks to predict the cetane number, yield sooting index, kinematic viscosity, cloud point, and lower heating value of multi-component blends. Property values of pure components are predicted using artificial neural networks trained with existing experimental data, and these predictions and their expected errors are propagated through linear and non-linear equations to obtain property predictions for multi-component blends. Individual component property prediction errors, defined by blind prediction median absolute error, are 4.91 units, 7.84 units, 0.06 cSt, 4.00 °C, and 0.55 MJ/kg for cetane number, yield sooting index, kinematic viscosity, cloud point, and lower heating value respectively. On average, property predictions for blends are shown to be accurate to within 6% of the blends’ experimental values. Further, a multitude of compounds expected to be produced from catalytically upgrading products of fast pyrolysis are evaluated with respect to their behavior in diesel fuel blends.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Foundations of an Electric Mobility Strategy for the City of Mexicali

The Foundations of an Electric Mobility Strategy for the city of Mexicali aligns with numerous energy, environmental, and transport plans and will help Mexicali meet multiple related goals. Mexicali’s energy mix, with 28% renewables, already enables plugin electric vehicles (PEVs) to reduce the mass of greenhouse gases (GHGs) per km driven 2/3 below that of their conventional counterparts. This GHG benefit will increase should Mexicali take steps to further increase their share of renewables in their electricity supply. Beyond increasing renewables, Mexicali could possibly deploy PEVs so that electric load is added in the right location (depending on further analysis of substations and feeders) and at the right time (between 21:00 and 11:00) in order to minimize grid upgrade costs. There are a handful of charge timing control mechanisms –at various stages of development– that Mexicali could implement. Transport electrification can facilitate mass transit by powering buses, trains, and small vehicles that get people from their homes or work to the transit stations and vice versa. Mexicali could utilize fleets as early PEV adopters in order to gain acceptance and add electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). Recommended prioritization of different types of fleets are suggested in this report: transit buses, school buses, airport ground support equipment (GSE), refuse trucks, taxis, shuttle buses, campus vehicles, delivery trucks, utility trucks, and finally semitrailers. There are a handful of policy options that Mexicali could use to incentivize fleets to purchase PEVs, including mandates, economic incentives, energy performance contracts, waivers to access restrictions, electricity discounts, and EVSE requirements in building codes. Mexicali’s taxi fleet was an early adopter of PEVs and had experienced some challenges—mostly related to the insufficient range of the taxis due to hot weather. In this report, we strategize ways to extend the range of the current electric taxis, including ways to make charging more convenient to the drivers, and more suggestions for appropriate vehicles to purchase in the future. This report also includes the groundwork of geotracking Mexicali’s taxi fleet so that more detailed recommendations can be made in the future. Once fleets have increased PEV acceptance and EVSE installations, the market will be ready to expand to private vehicle owners. In order to do this, more EVSE needs to be installed in the right locations. This mobility strategy lays out general local areas where EVSE could be well utilized, based on traffic patterns, land use, and demographic data. Mexicali could approach businesses within these areas that would likely make suitable hosts, based on how well they can profit from the additional business that EVSE would bring. Mexicali could then adopt a series of purchase incentives (including sales tax waivers or access to high-occupancy vehicles [HOV] lanes) that would encourage private vehicle owners to purchase PEVs. Purchase incentives run the risk of creating equity issues, which can be countered by promoting electrification in mass transit, creating more HOV lanes that have PEV exemptions, and installing EVSEs in underserved communities. Private PEV ownership will require a set of experts that Mexicali can help train, including PEV repair technicians, EVSE installation electricians, and first responders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗