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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Climate and air pollution impacts of generating biopower from forest management residues in California

California faces crisis conditions on its forested landscapes. A century of aggressive logging and fire suppression in combination with conditions exacerbated by climate change have created an ongoing ecological, economic, and public health emergency. Between commercial harvests on California’s working forestlands and the increasing number of acres the state treats each year for fire risk reduction and carbon sequestration, California forests generate millions of tons of woody residues annually—residues that are typically left or burned in the field. State policymakers have turned to biomass electricity generation as a key market for woody biomass in the hope that it can support sustainable forest management activities while also providing low-carbon renewable electricity. However, open questions surrounding the climate and air pollution performance of electricity generation from woody biomass have made it difficult to determine how best to manage the risks and opportunities posed by forest residues. The California Biomass Residue Emissions Characterization (C-BREC) model offers a spatially-explicit life cycle assessment framework to rigorously and transparently establish the climate and air pollution impacts of biopower from forest residues in California under current conditions. The C-BREC model characterizes the variable emissions from different biomass supply chains as well as the counterfactual emissions from prescribed burn, wildfire, and decay avoided by residue mobilization. We find that the life cycle ‘carbon footprint’ of biopower from woody residues generated by recent forest treatments in California ranges widely—from comparable with solar photovoltaic on the low end to comparable with natural gas on the high end. This variation stems largely from the heterogeneity in the fire and decay conditions these residues would encounter if left in the field, with utilization of residue that would otherwise have been burned in place offering the best climate and air quality performance. California’s energy and forest management policies should account for this variation to ensure desired climate benefits are achieved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire

Reliable projections of wildfire and associated socioeconomic risks are crucial for the development of efficient and effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. The lack of or limited observational constraints for modeling outputs impairs the credibility of wildfire projections. Here, we present a machine learning framework to constrain the future fire carbon emissions simulated by 13 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), using historical, observed joint states of fire-relevant variables. During the twenty-first century, the observation-constrained ensemble indicates a weaker increase in global fire carbon emissions but higher increase in global wildfire exposure in population, gross domestic production, and agricultural area, compared with the default ensemble. Such elevated socioeconomic risks are primarily caused by the compound regional enhancement of future wildfire activity and socioeconomic development in the western and central African countries, necessitating an emergent strategic preparedness to wildfires in these countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The good, the bad, and the future: Systematic review identifies best use of biomass to meet air quality and climate policies in California

Abstract California has large and diverse biomass resources and provides a pertinent example of how biomass use is changing and needs to change, in the face of climate mitigation policies. As in other areas of the world, California needs to optimize its use of biomass and waste to meet environmental and socioeconomic objectives. We used a systematic review to assess biomass use pathways in California and the associated impacts on climate and air quality. Biomass uses included the production of renewable fuels, electricity, biochar, compost, and other marketable products. For those biomass use pathways recently developed, information is available on the effects—usually beneficial—on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and there is some, but less, published information on the effects on criteria pollutants. Our review identifies 34 biomass use pathways with beneficial impacts on either GHG or pollutant emissions, or both—the “good.” These included combustion of forest biomass for power and conversion of livestock‐associated biomass to biogas by anaerobic digestion. The review identified 13 biomass use pathways with adverse impacts on GHG emissions, criteria pollutant emissions, or both—the “bad.” Wildfires are an example of one out of eight pathways which were found to be bad for both climate and air quality, while only two biomass use pathways reduced GHG emissions relative to an identified counterfactual but had adverse air quality impacts. Issues of high interest for the “future” included land management to reduce fire risk, future policies for the dairy industries, and full life‐cycle analysis of biomass production and use.

Agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2023

Incorporating an Interactive Fire Plume-Rise Model in the DOE's Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1 (E3SMv1) and Examining Aerosol Radiative Effect

The vertical distribution of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) is important in regulating their impacts on weather and climate. The plume-rise process affects the injection height of BBA and interacts with the air parcel lifting and cloud processes. However, these processes are not represented in most global climate models. In this study, we replaced the fixed vertical profiles of monthly BBA emissions in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) with an interactive fire plume-rise model. The vertical distribution of BBA emissions was calculated as a function of ambient thermodynamic conditions from the host E3SMv1, with distributions of fire sizes and sensible heat fluxes derived from the observations. The maximum fire radiative power (FRP) technique was used to determine the fire size. Scaling-FRP technique is used to calculate the wildfire heat release. Daily BBA emission, superimposed with a fire diurnal cycle retrieved from the satellite observation, was included in model simulations. The model shows improved agreement with satellite retrievals and in situ measurement during the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Wildfire Experiment for Cloud chemistry, Aerosol absorption, and Nitrogen campaign. The model-observation comparison demonstrates the importance of the plume-rise model and fire diurnal cycle assumption in determining the BBA fields. We also find that E3SMv1 with new features produces a larger carbonaceous aerosol burden, leading to 0.13 W m –2 warming at the top of atmosphere compared to the default E3SMv1. This highlights the importance of accurately representing the BBA injection height and indicates a no-linear nature in the BBA-induced radiative effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Rapid evolution of aerosol particles and their optical properties downwind of wildfires in the western US

Abstract. During the first phase of the Biomass Burn Operational Project (BBOP) field campaign, conducted in the Pacific Northwest, the DOE G-1 aircraft was used to follow the time evolution of wildfire smoke from near the point of emission to locations 2–3.5 h downwind. In nine flights we made repeated transects of wildfire plumes at varying downwind distances and could thereby follow the plume's time evolution. On average there was little change in dilution-normalized aerosol mass concentration as a function of downwind distance. This consistency hides a dynamic system in which primary aerosol particles are evaporating and secondary ones condensing. Organic aerosol is oxidized as a result. On all transects more than 90 % of aerosol is organic. In freshly emitted smoke aerosol, NH4+ is approximately equivalent to NO3. After 2 h of daytime aging, NH4+ increased and is approximately equivalent to the sum of Cl, SO42, and NO3. Particle size increased with downwind distance, causing particles to be more efficient scatters. Averaged over nine flights, mass scattering efficiency (MSE) increased in ∼ 2 h by 56 % and doubled in one flight. Mechanisms for redistributing mass from small to large particles are discussed. Coagulation is effective at moving aerosol from the Aitken to accumulation modes but yields only a minor increase in MSE. As absorption remained nearly constant with age, the time evolution of single scatter albedo was controlled by age-dependent scattering. Near-fire aerosol had a single scatter albedo (SSA) of 0.8–0.9. After 1 to 2 h of aging SSAs were typically 0.9 and greater. Assuming global-average surface and atmospheric conditions, the observed age dependence in SSA would change the direct radiative effect of a wildfire plume from near zero near the fire to a cooling effect downwind.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Influence of Anomalous Biomass Emissions on ENSO in CESM2

Abstract The influence of biomass burning (BB) aerosols arising from wildfires and agricultural fires on the transient coupled evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is explored in Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). For both El Niño and La Niña, two 20-member ensembles are generated from initial states that are predisposed to evolve into ENSO events. For each ENSO phase, one ensemble is forced with the observed BB emissions during satellite-era ENSO events while the other is forced with a climatological annual cycle, with the responses to anomalous BB emissions estimated from interensemble differences. It is found that the regional responses to anomalous BB emissions occur mainly during boreal fall, which is also the time of the climatological seasonal maximum in emissions. Transient responses are identified in precipitation, clouds, and radiation in both the tropics and extratropics. At the onset of El Niño, these include increased precipitation in the northern branch of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and an enhancement of cloud albedo and amount across the Maritime Continent and eastern subtropical Pacific Ocean. Additional responses are identified through the course of El Niño and successive La Niña events, the net effect of which is to strengthen sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean during El Niño and warm the tropical Pacific Ocean during La Niña. These responses improve the simulation of ENSO power, diversity, and asymmetry in CESM2. Significance Statement Biomass burning emissions from both wildfires and agricultural fires during ENSO act as a climate feedback, as they are both driven by fire weather anomalies tied to ENSO and influence clouds, radiation, and precipitation on a global scale. While the largest biomass burning (BB) emissions emanate mainly from Indonesia, other regions also exhibit systematic responses. When simulated in CESM2, the emissions collectively impact the flows of energy across the tropical Pacific Ocean in a spatially and temporally complex fashion, with the net effect of improving CESM2’s simulation of ENSO events.

Fasullo, John T. [National Center for Atmospheric ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Low-intensity frequent fires in coniferous forests transform soil organic matter in ways that may offset ecosystem carbon losses

The impact of shifting disturbance regimes on soil carbon (C) storage is a key uncertainty in global change research. Wildfires in coniferous forests are becoming more frequent in many regions, potentially causing large C emissions. Repeated low-intensity prescribed fires can mitigate wildfire severity, but repeated combustion may decrease soil C unless compensatory responses stabilize soil organic matter. Here, we tested how 30 years of decadal prescribed burning affected C and nitrogen (N) in plants, detritus, and soils in coniferous forests in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA. Tree basal area and litter stocks were resilient to fire, but fire reduced forest floor C by 77% (-36.4 Mg C/ha). In mineral soils, fire reduced C that was free from minerals by 41% (-4.4 Mg C/ha) but not C associated with minerals, and only in depths ≤ 5 cm. Fire also transformed the properties of remaining mineral soil organic matter by increasing the proportion of C in a pyrogenic form (from 3.2% to 7.5%) and associated with minerals (from 46% to 58%), suggesting the remaining soil C is more resistant to decomposition. Laboratory assays illustrated that fire reduced microbial CO2 respiration rates by 55% and the activity of eight extracellular enzymes that degrade cellulosic and aromatic compounds by 40–66%. Lower decomposition was correlated with lower inorganic N (-49%), especially ammonium, suggesting N availability is coupled with decomposition. The relative increase in forms of soil organic matter that are resistant to decay or stabilized onto mineral surfaces, and the associated decline in decomposition suggest that low-intensity fires may promote mineral soil C storage in pools with long mean residence times in coniferous forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Diel cycle impacts on the chemical and light absorption properties of organic carbon aerosol from wildfires in the western United States

Abstract. Organic aerosol (OA) emissions from biomass burning have been the subject of intense research in recent years, involving a combination of field campaigns and laboratory studies. These efforts have aimed at improving our limited understanding of the diverse processes and pathways involved in the atmospheric processing and evolution of OA properties, culminating in their accurate parameterizations in climate and chemical transport models. To bring closure between laboratory and field studies, wildfire plumes in the western United States were sampled and characterized for their chemical and optical properties during the ground-based segment of the 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign. Using a custom-developed multiwavelength integrated photoacoustic-nephelometer spectrometer in conjunction with a suite of instruments, including an oxidation flow reactor equipped to generate hydroxyl (OH⚫) or nitrate (NO3⚫) radicals to mimic daytime or nighttime oxidative aging processes, we investigated the effects of multiple equivalent hours of OH⚫ or NO3⚫ exposure on the chemical composition and mass absorption cross-sections (MAC(λ)) at 488 and 561 nm of OA emitted from wildfires in Arizona and Oregon. We found that OH⚫ exposure induced a slight initial increase in absorption corresponding to short timescales; however, at longer timescales, the wavelength-dependent MAC(λ) decreased by a factor of 0.72 ± 0.08, consistent with previous laboratory studies and reports of photobleaching. On the other hand, NO3⚫ exposure increased MAC(λ) by a factor of up to 1.69 ± 0.38. We also noted some sensitivity of aerosol aging to different fire conditions between Arizona and Oregon. The MAC(λ) enhancement following NO3⚫ exposure was found to correlate with an enhancement in CHO1N and CHOgt1N ion families measured by an Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Present‐Day Anthropogenic Total Iron Emissions Using Model and Observations

Abstract Iron emissions from human activities, such as oil combustion and smelting, affect the Earth's climate and marine ecosystems. These emissions are difficult to quantify accurately due to a lack of observations, particularly in remote ocean regions. In this study, we used long‐term, near‐source observations in areas with a dominance of anthropogenic iron emissions in various parts of the world to better estimate the total amount of anthropogenic iron emissions. We also used a statistical source apportionment method to identify the anthropogenic components and their sub‐sources from bulk aerosol observations in the United States. We find that the estimates of anthropogenic iron emissions are within a factor of 3 in most regions compared to previous inventory estimates. Under‐ or overestimation varied by region and depended on the number of sites, interannual variability, and the statistical filter choice. Smelting‐related iron emissions are overestimated by a factor of 1.5 in East Asia compared to previous estimates. More long‐term iron observations and the consideration of the influence of dust and wildfires could help reduce the uncertainty in anthropogenic iron emissions estimates.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) Emissions: Laboratory Measurement of Aerosol and Trace Gas from Combustion of Manufactured Building Materials

Wildfires are increasing in intensity and more often threatening the wildland urban interface (WUI) where buildings and homes coexist with the natural environment. WUI emissions have not been as well-studied as emissions from vegetation. Thus, there is a need to quantify the emissions of building materials used in home construction under flaming and smoldering conditions to study their impacts to human health, visibility, air quality, and climate. Here, in a controlled laboratory setting, we quantify emissions of aerosols and trace gases including formaldehyde, particulate matter, and black carbon. We focus on the combustion of traditional single-source wood-based construction fuels. Our results indicate that, similar to natural fuels, the aerosol optical properties were more related to combustion conditions than the fuel type. Overall, we observed significant variability in the gas and particle emissions. Consistent trends include high formaldehyde (HCHO) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions for smoldering conditions and higher carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), and black carbon for flaming conditions. Finally, these observations highlight the need to better characterize emissions for materials in the built environment to assess large-scale climate and human health impacts of fires at the WUI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of Changes to the Atmospheric Soluble Iron Deposition Flux on Ocean Biogeochemical Cycles in the Anthropocene

Abstract Iron can be a growth‐limiting nutrient for phytoplankton, modifying rates of net primary production, nitrogen fixation, and carbon export ‐ highlighting the importance of new iron inputs from the atmosphere. The bioavailable iron fraction depends on the emission source and the dissolution during transport. The impacts of anthropogenic combustion and land use change on emissions from industrial, domestic, shipping, desert, and wildfire sources suggest that Northern Hemisphere soluble iron deposition has likely been enhanced between 2% and 68% over the Industrial Era. If policy and climate follow the intermediate Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 trajectory, then results suggest that Southern Ocean (>30°S) soluble iron deposition would be enhanced between 63% and 95% by 2100. Marine net primary productivity and carbon export within the open ocean are most sensitive to changes in soluble iron deposition in the Southern Hemisphere; this is predominantly driven by fire rather than dust iron sources. Changes in iron deposition cause large perturbations to the marine nitrogen cycle, up to 70% increase in denitrification and 15% increase in nitrogen fixation, but only modestly impacts the carbon cycle and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (1–3 ppm). Regionally, primary productivity increases due to increased iron deposition are often compensated by offsetting decreases downstream corresponding to equivalent changes in the rate of phytoplankton macronutrient uptake, particularly in the equatorial Pacific. These effects are weaker in the Southern Ocean, suggesting that changes in iron deposition in this region dominates the global carbon cycle and climate response.

Hamilton, Douglas S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the Atmospheric Mn Cycle and Its Impact on Terrestrial Biogeochemistry

Abstract The role of manganese (Mn) in ecosystem carbon (C) biogeochemical cycling is gaining increasing attention. While soil Mn is mainly derived from bedrock, atmospheric deposition could be a major source of Mn to surface soils, with implications for soil C cycling. However, quantification of the atmospheric Mn cycle, which comprises emissions from natural (desert dust, sea salts, volcanoes, primary biogenic particles, and wildfires) and anthropogenic sources (e.g., industrialization and land‐use change due to agriculture), transport, and deposition, remains uncertain. Here, we use compiled emission data sets for each identified source to model and quantify the atmospheric Mn cycle by combining an atmospheric model and in situ atmospheric concentration measurements. We estimated global emissions of atmospheric Mn in aerosols (<10 μm in aerodynamic diameter) to be 1,400 Gg Mn year −1 . Approximately 31% of the emissions come from anthropogenic sources. Deposition of the anthropogenic Mn shortened Mn “pseudo” turnover times in 1‐m‐thick surface soils (ranging from 1,000 to over 10,000,000 years) by 1–2 orders of magnitude in industrialized regions. Such anthropogenic Mn inputs boosted the Mn‐to‐N ratio of the atmospheric deposition in non‐desert dominated regions (between 5 × 10 −5 and 0.02) across industrialized areas, but that was still lower than soil Mn‐to‐N ratio by 1–3 orders of magnitude. Correlation analysis revealed a negative relationship between Mn deposition and topsoil C density across temperate and (sub)tropical forests, consisting with atmospheric Mn deposition enhancing carbon respiration as seen in in situ biogeochemical studies.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Informed Multi‐Scale Approach Applied to the British Columbia Fires of Late Summer 2017

Abstract Pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb) clouds have a complex origin dependent on fire dynamics and meteorological conditions. When a pyrocumulonimbus cloud develops and is maintained over a period of time, it can inject significant aerosol into the troposphere and lower stratosphere, resulting in a longer‐term (months to years) occurrence of aerosol in the stratosphere. In this work, we investigate the British Columbia wildfires on 12–13 August 2017 using a multi‐scale simulation framework. We use the output of a physics‐based wildfire model (FIRETEC) with parameterized energy, particle, and gas emissions to drive the upper atmospheric aerosol mass injection within a regional cloud resolving model (HIGRAD). We demonstrate that vertical motions produced by latent heat release of the condensation of ice and cloud particles within the PyroCbs induce another 5 km of lifting of the simulated aerosol plume. Primary black carbon and organic aerosols (OAs) alone may not be enough to explain the observed aerosol burden, thus we show that secondary OA produced via condensation of gases by the fires, ash, and possibly dust can enhance lofted aerosol mass. A simulation with all emission mechanisms active, driven by the observed fuel load and environmental conditions, reasonably reproduces an aerosol profile inferred from observational data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS)

To achieve the ambitious net-zero emission goal by 2050, it is vital to explore practical approaches for removing carbon dioxide from the air. One promising method is Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS). BiCRS combines the natural ability of plants to convert carbon dioxide into biomass with human engineering to store the biomass, or derived products (char), belowground where it won't decompose. By securely storing these materials underground, we can trap the carbon dioxide absorbed by the plants during their growth, thus aiding in carbon removal from the atmosphere. BiCRS not only addresses carbon emissions but also has co-benefits such as wildfire risk reduction by utilizing forest residues. It is essential to establish best practices to ensure accurate measurements of net carbon dioxide removed by BiCRS for policymakers, businesses and communities. Presently, there is a lack of consistent methods for calculating these removals, considering variables like plant type, storage conditions, and conditions for converting the biomass to other products for storage like char. This project develops guidelines for monitoring and reporting BiCRS activities, offering a dependable framework for measuring carbon dioxide removal, enabling adoption of transparent BiCRS approaches for making significant contributions to reducing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

biomass carbon removal and storage↗
DOE OSTI2021

Changes in fire weather climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

Abstract The 2015 Paris Agreement led to a number of studies that assessed the impact of the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C increases in global temperature over preindustrial levels. However, those assessments have not actively investigated the impact of these levels of warming on fire weather. In view of a recent series of high-profile wildfire events worldwide, we access fire weather sensitivity based on a set of multi-model large ensemble climate simulations for these low-emission scenarios. The results indicate that the half degree difference between these two thresholds may lead to a significantly increased hazard of wildfire in certain parts of the world, particularly the Amazon, African savanna and Mediterranean. Although further experiments focused on human land use are needed to depict future fire activity, considering that rising temperatures are the most influential factor in augmenting the danger of fire weather, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would alleviate some risk in these parts of the world.

Son, Rackhun (ORCID:000000023366495X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life-cycle carbon footprint and total production potential of cross-laminated timber from California’s wildland-urban interface

The frequency, scale, and severity of wildfires are steadily increasing in the Western United States. Sustainable forest management practices through forest thinning could reduce the impact of wildfires and provide lumber for wood-based, long-lived, and low-carbon building materials. This study explores the potential for harvesting biomass in California (CA) to mitigate wildfire risk and provide multi-decade carbon storage in the form of cross-laminated timber (CLT) for use in buildings. First, we assessed biomass resource availability, finding that the total live hardwood and live softwood available in the wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) across CA sums to 14.1 million metric tons (MMT) and 34.9 MMT, respectively, which contains the equivalent of 90 MMT of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Then, we conducted a life cycle assessment of CLT considering softwood and hardwood sources to provide insights into emissions and energy demand associated with utilization of the wood removed for wildfire risk management. We found that the net life cycle carbon footprint of live hardwood and softwood when including biogenic carbon storage/emissions is 414 and 317 kg CO2e/m3 CLT, respectively. To incorporate the timing of these emissions and uptake, we have also conducted a cradle-to-grave time-dependent global warming potential (GWP) analysis. The time-adjusted GWP for live hardwood and live softwood is −227 and −104 kg CO2e/m3 CLT, respectively. In terms of total CLT production potential, 0.03 and 0.005 million m3 CLT can be sourced from live softwood and hardwood, respectively, in WUI on gentle slopes in CA. The resulting insights and approaches from this study are broadly applicable to other forested regions and WUIs across the US and the world, and provide a holistic approach to use forest thinning as a wildfire mitigation strategy in combination with a novel approach for life cycle assessment of building materials with a limited dataset.

Bose, Baishakhi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projections of wildfire risk and activities under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios

Wildfires are important ecosystem processes that have a significant impact on terrestrial vegetation, environment, and climate. This study investigates how future wildfire risk and activities could change under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios relative to pre-industrial levels using a modified McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDIn) and the CLM4.5-BGC land surface model. Sixteen Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 were employed to supply the variables of climate change under low, middle, and high greenhouse emission scenarios in the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios. The ensemble means from the FFDIn and results from the CLM4.5-BGC with multiple forcings show that the dry areas in the southwestern US, Brazilian Highlands, and Arabian islands are projected to face higher wildfire risk with larger burned areas and more carbon emissions under a warmer climate. The Congo Basin and part of the Amazon could have a lower wildfire risk with smaller burned areas and less carbon emissions. The absolute changes in the projected FFDIn are small, although large increases are observed in boreal areas, particularly in the winter and spring. Burned area and carbon emissions are projected to increase in general in the boreal area but decrease in northeastern Asia. Compared to the 1.5 °C scenario, the wildfire risk and burned area levels are projected to increase under the 2.0 °C scenario except in the western Amazon. However, fire carbon emissions are projected to decrease more in tropical areas under the 2.0 °C scenario. The different change directions in eastern North America and eastern China produced by the FFDIn and CLM4.5-BGC suggest the potential effect of non-meteorological elements on fire activities.

1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming↗
DOE OSTI2023

Final Technical Report: Impact of Wildfires on Solar Generation, Reserves, and Energy Prices

This study quantifies the potential impacts of wildfires on the California grid, specifically the impacts under three different wildfire scenarios: a "no wildfire" scenario and two wildfire-specific scenarios, "2020 wildfire" and "enhanced wildfire" (with both wildfire scenarios assuming spatial distribution of the wildfire location the same as the 2020 fires). The study combines each scenario with two solar energy infrastructures: one corresponding to the current solar installation and the other to future (midcentury) solar installation. The analysis is conducted using state-of-the-science modeling tools: primarily WRF-Chem for atmospheric modeling with chemistry to account for impacts of wildfires on solar radiation and PLEXOS for electricity market simulations. The analysis suggests that wildfires can significantly attenuate solar radiation at both short downwind distances as well as far from the emissions sources. Although the study is limited in scope, and the analysis studies only a few of the many factors that can affect photovoltaic generation and electricity markets, it indicates that wildfire smoke is an important factor that needs to be carefully considered and analyzed in planning the future grid.

electricity market↗