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At least 55 records · Page 3

Estimation of the electromagnetic bias from retracked TOPEX data

We examine the electromagnetic (EM) bias by using retracked TOPEX altimeter data. In contrast to previous studies, we use a parameterization of the EM bias which does not make stringent assumptions about the form of the correction or its global behavior. We find that the most effective single parameter correction uses the altimeter-estimated wind speed but that other parameterizations, using a wave age related parameter of significant wave height, may also significantly reduce the repeat pass variance. The different corrections are compared, and their improvement of the TOPEX height variance is quantified.

Rodriguez, Ernesto↗

Earth Science Deep Learning: Applications and Lessons Learned

Deep Learning: A subfield of machine learning; Algorithms inspired by function of the brain; Scales with amount of training data; Powerful tool without the need for feature engineering; Suitable for Earth Science applications. Deep Learning for Earth science at MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center): Phenomena identification; Hurricane intensity (wind speed) estimation; Severe storm (hailstorm) detection; Transverse bands detection; Entity extraction for knowledge graph creation; Ephemeral water detection.

Labeled Data↗

Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Wind Speed Retrievals and Assessment Using Dropsondes

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an experimental C-band passive microwave radiometer designed to map the horizontal structure of surface wind speed fields in hurricanes. New data processing and customized retrieval approaches were developed after the 2015 Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment, which featured flights over Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, Marty, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Erika. These new approaches produced maps of surface wind speed that looked more realistic than those from previous campaigns. Dropsondes from the High Definition Sounding System (HDSS) that was flown with HIRAD on a WB-57 high altitude aircraft in TCI were used to assess the quality of the HIRAD wind speed retrievals. The root mean square difference between HIRAD-retrieved surface wind speeds and dropsonde-estimated surface wind speeds was 6.0 meters per second. The largest differences between HIRAD and dropsonde winds were from data points where storm motion during dropsonde descent compromised the validity of the comparisons. Accounting for this and for uncertainty in the dropsonde measurements themselves, we estimate the root mean square error for the HIRAD retrievals as around 4.7 meters per second. Prior to the 2015 TCI experiment, HIRAD had previously flown on the WB-57 for missions across Hurricanes Gonzalo (2014), Earl (2010), and Karl (2010). Configuration of the instrument was not identical to the 2015 flights, but the methods devised after the 2015 flights may be applied to that previous data in an attempt to improve retrievals from those cases.

wind retrieval↗

Estimates of oceanic surface wind speed and direction using orthogonal beam scatterometer measurements and comparison of recent sea scattering theories

The wind direction properties of radar backscatter from the sea were empirically modelled using a cosine Fourier series through the 4th harmonic in wind direction (referenced to upwind). A comparison with 1975 JONSWAP (Joint North Sea Wave Project) scatterometer data, at incidence angles of 40 and 65, indicates that effects to third and fourth harmonics are negligible. Another important result is that the Fourier coefficients through the second harmonic are related to wind speed by a power law expression. A technique is also proposed to estimate the wind speed and direction over the ocean from two orthogonal scattering measurements. A comparison between two different types of sea scatter theories, one type presented by the work of Wright and the other by that of Chan and Fung, was made with recent scatterometer measurements. It demonstrates that a complete scattering model must include some provisions for the anisotropic characteristics of the sea scatter, and use a sea spectrum which depends upon wind speed.

Moore, R. K.↗

Venera-11 and Venera 12: Preliminary estimates for the wind speed and turbulence in the atmosphere of Venus

The methods and results of measurements for wind speed and atmospheric turbulence in the clouds of Venus are described, and compared with earlier results. The distribution of wind speed obtained from the data of Venera 12 is in good conformity with the data of the preceding Venera and Pioneer probes, indicating the existence of a constant and powerful zonal movement of the troposphere.

Kerzhanovich, V. V.↗

The effects of the variations in sea surface temperature and atmospheric stability in the estimation of average wind speed by SEASAT-SASS

The average wind speeds from the scatterometer (SASS) on the ocean observing satellite SEASAT are found to be generally higher than the average wind speeds from ship reports. In this study, two factors, sea surface temperature and atmospheric stability, are identified which affect microwave scatter and, therefore, wave development. The problem of relating satellite observations to a fictitious quantity, such as the neutral wind, that has to be derived from in situ observations with models is examined. The study also demonstrates the dependence of SASS winds on sea surface temperature at low wind speeds, possibly due to temperature-dependent factors, such as water viscosity, which affect wave development.

Liu, W. T.↗

A baseline for ensemble-based, time-resolved inflow reconstruction for a single turbine using large-eddy simulations and latent diffusion models

We are interested in reconstructing winds flowing through a turbine on a second-by-second basis over a 10 min window. Previously, we developed a machine learning algorithm that takes in a snapshot of wind speed measurements and generates ensembles of three-dimensional wind field estimates. Here, we use these estimates as initial conditions in large-eddy simulations and reconstruct atmospheric and turbine response dynamic quantities in a synthetic field campaign. In doing so, we establish a baseline for model validation that future time-aware data assimilation techniques will be compared to. In turbine-free case studies, ground truth wind speeds consistently fall within our estimated wind speed distribution for the first 100 s after the simulation start. In simulations with turbines, the wind estimates show a small bias of 0.10 m s 1 and good correlation of 0.80 during the first 100 s. During this window, our estimates of the Blade 1 bending moment and generator power typically span the ground truth, with the estimate of the former performing better overall. In summary, this approach shows promise as a stand-alone technique for reconstructing real-world inflow and turbine dynamics in 1-2 min windows and as a foundation for future time-aware data assimilation techniques.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Mesoscale damage patterns of Hurricane Frederic in relation to enhanced SMS imagery

An F-scale analysis of Hurricane Frederic (September 12 and 13, 1979) was performed in order to determine the structural damage patterns attributed to the storm. Enhanced SMS imagery revealed patterns of mesoscale features as well as features related to the shielding effects of trees and the grouping effect of structures. The scatter in estimating the damage scale was + or - 1 F-scale. It is shown that discrepancies in recorded wind speed and the estimated wind-speed from the F-scale are the result of different damage mechanisms of hurricane and tornado winds. Radar echoes revealed that the structure of Hurricane Frederic changed from an axisymmetric center to an instantaneous center of rotation. Finally, it is suggested that major hurricane wind and water damage be investigated in greater detail by aerial photography, damage vector mapping, and ground surveys.

Fujita, T. T.↗

ROWS estimates of wave height, wind speed, and directional wave spectra for SIR-B underflights off Chile, October 11 and 12, 1984

An account is given of the successful operation of the Goddard Ku-band Radar Ocean Wave Spectrometer (ROWS) on four out of five of the NASA Wallops' P-3 underflights of the Shuttle Imaging Radar-B (SIR-B) off the coast of southern Chile during the period of October 7-12, 1984. ROWS provided surface wind speed, wave height, and directional wave height spectrum estimates from the instrument's nadir altimeter mode and off-nadir spectrometer mode. ROWS estimates of the directional spectra of 300-400-m wavelength swell-dominated 3-5 m seas on October 11 and 12 are presented and compared to SCR (Surface Contour Radar), SIR-B, and Navy GSOWM spectra. Good agreement is found with SCR height spectra for the 12th (when the SCR was operable). Also, surprisingly good agreement is found between ROWS slope spectra and SIR-B image spectra for both the 11th and 12th for both swell and local wind-sea components. ROWS altimeter mode estimates of maximum winds of about 10 m/s on the 11th and 12th are seen to be consistent with the ROWS spectrometer mode observed local wind-sea peak frequencies of about 0.12-0.14 Hz.

Jackson, F. C.↗

Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble

To accurately plan and manage wind power plants, not only does the time-varying wind resource at the site of interest need to be assessed but also the uncertainty connected to this estimate. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the mesoscale represent a valuable way to characterize the wind resource offshore, given the challenges connected with measuring hub-height wind speed. The boundary condition and parametric uncertainty associated with modeled wind speed is often estimated by running a model ensemble. However, creating an NWP ensemble of long-term wind resource data over a large region represents a computational challenge. Here, we propose two approaches to temporally extrapolate wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty using a more convenient setup in which a mesoscale ensemble is run over a short-term period (1 year), and only a single model covers the desired long-term period (20 year). We quantify hub-height wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty from the short-term model ensemble as its normalized across-ensemble standard deviation. Then, we develop and apply a gradient-boosting model and an analog ensemble approach to temporally extrapolate such uncertainty to the full 20-year period, for which only a single model run is available. As a test case, we consider offshore wind resource characterization in the California Outer Continental Shelf. Both of the proposed approaches provide accurate estimates of the long-term wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty across the region (R 2 >0.75), with the gradient-boosting model slightly outperforming the analog ensemble in terms of bias and centered root-mean-square error. At the three offshore wind energy lease areas in the region, we find a long-term median hourly uncertainty between 10 % and 14 % of the mean hub-height wind speed values. Finally, we assess the physical variability in the uncertainty estimates. In general, we find that the wind speed uncertainty increases closer to land. Also, neutral conditions have smaller uncertainty than the stable and unstable cases, and the modeled wind speed in winter has less boundary condition and parametric sensitivity than summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Monitoring with AMSU-A: Estimation of Maximum Sustained Wind Speeds

The first Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit temperature sounder (AMSU-A) was launched on the NOAA-15 satellite on 13 May 1998. The AMSU-A's higher spatial and radiometric resolutions provide more useful information on the strength of the middle and upper tropospheric warm cores associated with tropical cyclones than have previous microwave temperature sounders. The gradient wind relationship suggests that the temperature gradient near the core of tropical cyclones increases nonlinearly with wind speed. We recast the gradient wind equation to include AMSU-A derived variables. Stepwise regression is used to determine which of these variables is most closely related to maximum sustained winds (V(sub max)). The satellite variables investigated include the radially averaged gradients at two spatial resolutions of AMSU-A channels 1 through 10 T(sub b) data (delta(sub r)T(sub b)), the squares of these gradients, a channel 15 based scattering index (SI-89), and area averaged T(sub b). Calculations of Tb and delta(sub r)T(sub b) from mesoscale model simulations of Andrew reveal the effects of the AMSU spatial sampling on the cyclone warm core presentation. Stepwise regression of 66 AMSU-A terms against National Hurricane Center (NHC) V(sub max) estimates from the 1998 and 1999 Atlantic hurricane season confirms the existence of a nonlinear relationship between wind speed and radially averaged temperature gradients near the cyclone warm core. Of six regression terms, four are dominated by temperature information, and two are interpreted as correcting for hydrometeor contamination. Jackknifed regressions were performed to estimate the algorithm performance on independent data. For the 82 cases that had in situ measurements of V(sub max), the average error standard deviation was 4.7 m/s. For 108 cases without in situ wind data, the average error standard deviation was 7.5 m/s. Operational considerations, including the detection of weak cyclones and false alarm reduction are also discussed.

Spencer, Roy↗

Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Monitoring with AMSU-A: Estimation of Maximum Sustained Wind Speeds

The first Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit temperature sounder (AMSU-A) was launched on the NOAA-15 satellite on 13 May 1998. The AMSU-A's higher spatial and radiometric resolutions provide more useful information on the strength of the middle- and upper-tropospheric warm cores associated with tropical cyclones than have previous microwave temperature sounders. The gradient wind relationship suggests that the temperature gradient near the core of tropical cyclones increases nonlinearly with wind speed. The gradient wind equation is recast to include AMSU-A-derived variables, Stepwise regression is used to determine which of these variables is most closely related to maximum sustained winds (V(sub max)). The satellite variables investigated include the radially averaged gradients at two spatial resolutions of AMSU-A channels 1-10 T(sub b) data (delta(sub r)T(sub B)), the squares of these gradients, a channel-15-based scattering index (SI(sub 89)), and area-averaged T(sub B). Calculations of T(sub B) and delta(sub r)T(sub B) from mesoscale model simulations of Andrew reveal the effects of the AMSU spatial sampling on the cyclone warm core presentation. Stepwise regression of 66 AMSU-A terms against National Hurricane Center V(sub max) estimates from the 1998 and 1999 Atlantic hurricane season confirms the existence of a nonlinear relationship between wind speed and radially averaged temperature gradients near the cyclone warm core. Of six regression terms, four are dominated by temperature information, and two are interpreted as correcting for hydrometeor contamination. Jackknifed regressions were performed to estimate the algorithm performance on independent data. For the 82 cases that had in situ measurements of V(sub max), the average error standard deviation was 4.7 m/s. For 108 cases without in situ wind data, the average error standard deviation was 7.5 m/s Operational considerations, including the detection of weak cyclones and false alarm reduction, are also discussed.

Spencer, Roy W.↗

Solar Wind Speed Structure in the Inner Corona at 3-12 Ro

Estimates of solar wind speed obtained by Armstrong et al. [1986] based on 1983 VLA multiple-station intensity scintillation measurements inside 12 R(sub o) have been correlated with the electron density structure observed in white-light coronagraph measurements. The observed large- scale and apparently systematic speed variations are found to depend primarily on changes in heliographic latitude and longitude, which leads to the first results on large-scale speed structure in the acceleration region of the solar wind. Over an equatorial hole, solar wind speed is relatively steady, with peak-to-peak variations of 50 km/s and an average of 230 km/s. In contrast, the near-Sun flow speed across the streamer belt shows regular large-scale variations in the range of 100-300 km/s. Based on four groups of data, the gradient is 36 km/s per degree in heliocentric coordinates (corresponding to a rise of 260 km/s over a spatial distance on the Sun of two arcmin) with a standard deviation of 2.4 km/s per degree. The lowest speeds most likely coincide with the stalks of coronal streamers observed in white-light measurements. The detection of significant wind shear over the streamer belt is consistent with in situ and scintillation measurements showing that the density spectrum has a power-law form characteristic of fully developed turbulence over a much broader range of scales than in neighboring regions.

Woo, Richard↗

Wind speed and aerosol optical thickness estimates from aircraft observations of sea glitter

A method is proposed whereby the optical characteristics of the bright glitter pattern of the sunlight reflected from water are used to determine wind speed and aerosol optical thickness in the troposphere. Radiances observed from an aircraft are used to derive the aerosol optical thickness and the surface wind speed. A scanning radiometer is used to measure the radiances in several spectral channels within 45 deg of the nadir and in a plane transverse to the aircraft motion. The observations are taken under nearly cloudless sky conditions over the Pacific Ocean (long. 130.4 deg, lat. 42.3 deg), and the aircraft height is 150 m above water with a 292-deg heading. It is shown that the derived wind speed depends strongly on the width of the glitter pattern, and that the width of the computed radiance pattern at the 150-m aircraft height diverges from the measured value, indicating overestimated wind speed.

Ahmad, Z.↗

A Comparison of Pre‐Construction and Operational Wake Loss Estimates for Land‐Based Wind Plants

The overall bias between pre‐construction energy yield assessment (EYA) estimates of wind plant energy production and the achieved operational production is improving in the wind industry, but uncertainty remains high for individual wind plants. Wake effects within wind plants are one of the largest sources of energy loss considered in the EYA process, and previous work shows wake loss estimates to be a major source of disagreement among wind energy consultants who perform EYAs. To better understand the accuracy of wake loss predictions, we compare overall operational wake loss estimates based on supervisory control and data acquisition data to pre‐construction estimates provided by six wind energy consultants for five land‐based wind plants in North America. By augmenting existing approaches for quantifying operational wake losses, we estimate wake losses during the period of record for which operational data are available as well as the expected long‐term wake losses, based on historical reanalysis weather data, to which the EYA estimates are compared. To account for power variations at different turbine locations caused by terrain‐induced wind resource heterogeneity, we correct the operational wake loss estimates using predicted freestream wind speed variations from the Wind Systems Engineering Reynolds‐averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) tool. We identify long‐term corrected operational wake losses between 1.9% and 6.4% for the five plants, with a mean loss of 4%. For the project deemed most acceptable for operational wake loss assessment, which is located in the simplest terrain and isolated from neighboring plants, the mean EYA wake loss estimate is within 0.7 percentage points of the operational value of 6.4%. For most of the remaining plants, results suggest that wake losses are generally overpredicted by 2.6–6.3 percentage points. However, operational wake losses may be underestimated for many of these projects because of spatial wind resource variations not captured by the RANS model, external wake effects that are unaccounted for in the estimation process, and wind plant blockage effects. To better understand factors that contribute to the observed wake losses, we investigate operational wake losses as a function of wind direction and wind speed. As expected, wake losses are generally concentrated near wind directions that are aligned with rows of closely spaced turbines and at below‐rated wind speeds; however, for some projects, the energy produced by the wind plant exceeds the estimated potential energy of the plant without wake interactions for certain wind directions and wind speeds, suggesting inaccurate assumptions in the wake loss estimation method for those plants. Lastly, we compare predicted and operational wake losses for individual wind turbines, finding that even when overall wake losses are predicted accurately, large uncertainty exists at the turbine level.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

What can surface wind observations tell us about interannual variation in wind energy output?

The past decade of wind power growth was supported by capacity factor improvements and associated cost reductions. But are higher capacity factors a technology success story or, as suggested by recent research, has the influence of technology been overstated by ignoring positive surface wind speed trends? The answer could influence estimates of wind energy's cost and even future deployment rates. We find that US surface wind speed observations imply a 2.6% improvement in capacity factors from 2010 to 2019. Yet newer vintages of wind plants have recorded capacity factors that are ~25% larger than plants built close to 2010. It follows that technological factors and improved site quality, not higher wind speeds, drove most of the improvement in capacity factors. Additionally, we match hundreds of meteorological stations to nearby (< 25 km) wind plants and compare annual estimated generation, based on a function of surface wind speed observations, to annual recorded generation. Researchers rely on this publicly available surface data because measurements co-located with wind plants are generally considered proprietary. Our analysis addresses a research gap: interannual variation in observed surface wind speeds is rarely compared to observed data at wind plant locations and turbine heights. We find that despite its common use for this purpose, generation estimates based on publicly available surface observational data provide a poor proxy for interannual variability in recorded wind generation. These findings suggest that caution is generally needed when researchers use surface wind speed measurements to investigate long-term wind energy trends.

17 WIND ENERGY↗