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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Risk in an Uncertain Future: The Evolution of Resource Adequacy

As our power grids transition toward a decarbonized energy mix, ensuring reliability and provision of grid services remains paramount. The power system has always been heavily influenced by the weather - extreme temperatures determine the timing of peak demand, winter cold snaps can limit natural gas supply, gas turbine reliability and output are affected by ambient conditions, and hydro output varies seasonally and annually. However, as the grid increasingly relies on variable renewable energy (VRE), like wind and solar, the attention to reliability and weather conditions is increasingly important. The implications of changing reliability are large. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) rolling blackouts from earlier this year impacted millions of people across the state and could be seen from space (Figure 1).

hydraulic turbines↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analyzing at-scale distribution grid response to extreme temperatures

Threats against power grids continue to increase, as extreme weather conditions and natural disasters (extreme events) become more frequent. Hence, there is a need for the simulation and modeling of power grids to reflect realistic conditions during extreme events conditions, especially distribution systems. Herein, this paper presents a modeling and simulation platform for electric distribution grids which can estimate overall power demand during extreme weather conditions. The presented platform's efficacy is shown by demonstrating estimation of electrical demand for 1) Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) during winter storm Uri in 2021, and 2) alternative hypothetical scenarios of integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), weatherization, and load electrification. In comparing to the actual demand served by ERCOT during the winter storm Uri of 2021, the proposed platform estimates approximately 34 GW of peak capacity deficit. These numbers are consistent with state-of-the-art prediction results published in the literature. For the case of the future electrification of heating loads, peak capacity of 78 GW (124% increase) is estimated, which would be reduced to 47 GW (38% increase) with the adoption of efficient heating appliances and improved thermal insulation. Integrating distributed solar PV and storage into the grid causes improvement in the local energy utilization and hence reduces the potential unmet energy by 31% and 40%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Weather Analysis for Xcel Energy's 2030 Colorado Preferred Plan

The Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo), a subsidiary of Xcel Energy (Xcel), plans to meet its target of an 80% reduction in CO 2 emissions over 2005 levels by 2030 through its Preferred Plan1,2 that includes increasing the wind and solar energy on its system, reducing coal, and adjusting the operation and dispatch of new and existing thermal generation. The objective of our analysis reported here is to identify how the PSCo generation and transmission of its Preferred Plan might operate in the face of specific weather events. We investigate weather events that currently cause stress to PSCo’s system, such as winter storms and extreme heat. In addition, we explore how the future system responds to scenarios that may be considered normal weather conditions today, but that have a large impact on wind and solar generation potential.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Winter Storm Elliott: Energy Emergency Alert Lessons Learned

Power blackouts in the United States in 2022 highlighted the need for better communication and planning among power grid stakeholders. This need was further demonstrated at a 2021 workshop held by the Grid Reliability Initiative Utilizing Data Standardization (GRIDS) Project. The GRIDS Project was established to understand and address the gaps in communication between the transmission and distribution operators. With the ongoing energy transition including electrification, distributed energy resource penetration, and so on, this project aims for improved energy emergency communications at the transmission-distribution interface. In 2022, Winter Storm Elliott affected 60% of the United States population (Weather Underground 2022), resulting in rolling blackouts in many areas of the eastern United States (Knoxville Utilities Board [KUB] 2023). Information presented here is based on the GRIDS workshop findings and subsequent research and interviews with stakeholders. After a brief summary of the effects of Winter Storm Elliott, this report covers the standard energy emergency communications processes currently in use, how the storm affected power management operations for the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and its local utility companies, and related experiences in other states. The report concludes with lessons learned and recommendations for improvements and a path forward.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wintertime extreme warming events in the high Arctic: characteristics, drivers, trends, and the role of atmospheric rivers

Abstract. An extreme warming event near the North Pole, with 2 m temperature rising above 0 °C, was observed in late December 2015. This specific event has been attributed to cyclones and their associated moisture intrusions. However, little is known about the characteristics and drivers of similar events in the historical record. Here, using data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis, version 5 (ERA5), we study these winter extreme warming events with 2 m temperature over a grid point above 0 °C over the high Arctic (poleward of 80° N) that occurred during 1980–2021. In ERA5, such wintertime extreme warming events can only be found over the Atlantic sector. They occur rarely over many grid points, with a total absence during some winters. Furthermore, even when occurring, they tend to be short-lived, with the majority of the events lasting for less than a day. By examining their surface energy budget, we found that these events transition with increasing latitude from a regime dominated by turbulent heat flux into the one dominated by downward longwave radiation. Positive sea level pressure anomalies which resemble blocking over northern Eurasia are identified as a key ingredient in driving these events, as they can effectively deflect the eastward propagating cyclones poleward, leading to intense moisture and heat intrusions into the high Arctic. Using an atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm, the roles of ARs in contributing to the occurrence of these extreme warming events defined at the grid-point scale are explicitly quantified. The importance of ARs in inducing these events increases with latitude. Poleward of about 83° N, 100 % of these events occurred under AR conditions, corroborating that ARs were essential in contributing to the occurrence of these events. Over the past 4 decades, both the frequency, duration, and magnitude of these events have been increasing significantly. As the Arctic continues to warm, these events are likely to increase in both frequency, duration, and magnitude, with great implications for the local sea ice, hydrological cycle, and ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Scenario Extreme Weather Simulator

The Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator (MEWS) takes existing historical weather data and inserts trends and extreme events such as heat waves, hurricanes, extreme precipitation, or winter storms. The code includes functionality for projecting increasing frequency and duration of such events over a large range of statistically sampled realizations of the future. These weather files can then be used in building energy simulations through the Energy Plus software created by DOE. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525 SAND2021-8658 O

Villa, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolving winter atmospheric teleconnection patterns and their potential triggers across western North America

Abstract We present a comprehensive analysis diagnosing the primary factors driving the observed changes in major atmospheric teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere winter, including the Pacific North American pattern (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and North American winter dipole (NAWD), with particular focus on their roles in shaping anomalous weather across North America. Our investigation reveals a consistent influence of the NAWD over seven decades, contrasting with fluctuating impacts from PNA and minor impacts from NAO. In particular, an emergent negative correlation between the NAWD and PNA, signaling a shifted phase of teleconnection patterns, is identified. Such a relationship change is traced to enhanced upper-level ridges across western North America, reflecting a reinforced winter stationary wave. Through attribution analysis, we identify greenhouse gas emissions as a probable driver for the northward drift of the Asia-Pacific jet core, which, aided by orographic lifting over the Alaskan Range, subsequently amplifies the winter stationary wave across western North America. This work emphasizes the pronounced effect of human-induced global warming on the structure and teleconnection of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere winter, providing vital perspectives on the dynamics of current climate trends.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Surface temperature comparison of the Arctic winter MOSAiC observations, ERA5 reanalysis, and MODIS satellite retrieval

Atmospheric model systems, such as those used for weather forecast and reanalysis production, often have significant and systematic errors in their representation of the Arctic surface energy budget and its components. The newly available observation data of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (2019/2020) enable a range of model analyses and validation in order to advance our understanding of potential model deficiencies. In the present study, we analyze deficiencies in the surface radiative energy budget over Arctic sea ice in the ERA5 global atmospheric reanalysis by comparing against the winter MOSAiC campaign data, as well as, a pan-Arctic level-2 MODIS ice surface temperature remote sensing product. We find that ERA5 can simulate the timing of radiatively clear periods, though it is not able to distinguish the two observed radiative Arctic winter states, radiatively clear and opaquely cloudy, in the distribution of the net surface radiative budget. The ERA5 surface temperature over Arctic sea ice has a conditional error with a positive bias in radiatively clear conditions and a negative bias in opaquely cloudy conditions. The mean surface temperature error is 4°C for radiatively clear situations at MOSAiC and up to 15°C in some parts of the Arctic. The spatial variability of the surface temperature, given by 4 observation sites at MOSAiC, is not captured by ERA5 due to its spatial resolution but represented in the level-2 satellite product. The sensitivity analysis of possible error sources, using satellite products of snow depth and sea ice thickness, shows that the positive surface temperature errors during radiatively clear events are, to a large extent, caused by insufficient sea ice thickness and snow depth representation in the reanalysis system. A positive bias characterizes regions with ice thickness greater than 1.5 m, while the negative bias for thinner ice is partly compensated by the effect of snow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Envelope-driven comfort risk in residential demand response

Residential demand response (DR) is a valuable resource for grid reliability, but remains challenging because the highly heterogeneous residential building stock leads to widely varying and hard-to-predict load and comfort responses during DR events. Although prior research has estimated the technical potential of DR-capable technologies for achieving energy demand savings, little is known about how they affect thermal comfort. In particular, it remains unclear how indoor thermal conditions due to DR depend on the thermal envelope characteristics of the housing stock. To address this gap, this study provides a systematic, location-specific assessment of indoor thermal performance during DR-events across the US housing stock using both typical DR weather data and detailed building metadata. We evaluate how envelope characteristics influence indoor temperatures during realistic simulated summer and winter DR events across 37 US locations, applying both temperature threshold and rate of temperature change criteria to estimate region-level probabilities of discomfort. Additionally, we show the impact of distinct weather patterns that intensify or abate thermal stress on comfort outcomes. Results show a near-universal overheating risk in summer DR events, where comfort outcomes are strongly influenced by rapid risk of comfort violations. In contrast, overall winter DR discomfort risk is lower, risk escalation is more gradual and shows greater sensitivity to event duration. These findings offer a data-driven quantification of comfort risk across diverse climates and building envelopes, demonstrating the need for region-specific DR scheduling and discomfort mitigation strategies tailored to local weather patterns and the performance of existing residential buildings.

Demand response↗
DOE OSTI2025

Application of PRIM for understanding patterns in carbon dioxide model-observation differences

Reducing uncertainties in regional carbon balances requires a better understanding of CO 2 transport in synoptic weather systems. Here, we apply the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM), a data-mining method to identify high-density regions for a target-class within an input parameter space, to airborne observations of potential temperature, wind speed, water vapor mixing ratio, and CO 2 dry mol fraction gathered during the Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT)-America Summer 2016 and Winter 2017 campaigns. ACT observations were targeted at expert-designated cases of fair weather and near-frontal warm and cold sector air at atmospheric boundary-layer, lower-, and higher free tropospheric levels (ABL, LFT, and HFT, respectively). We investigate atmospheric characteristics of these pre-defined cases and associated CO 2 model-observation-differences in the mesoscale WRF-Chem model. PRIM results separate winter- and summertime observations as well as observations from ABL, LFT, and HFT with enrichment factors of 4.0–20.5 inside the PRIM box compared to the entire dataset but cannot distinguish between near-frontal warm and cold sector observations in the higher free troposphere. Analyzing of the parameter space constrained by PRIM, we find that large magnitude model observation differences preferentially associated with times when atmospheric conditions are less typical. This association suggests that PRIM could provide a useful tool for isolating atmospheric conditions with large-magnitude and non-Gaussian CO 2 -residuals for targeted transport model evaluation and to potentially improve inversion results during synoptically active periods.

Gerken, Tobias [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg,↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast—Part 2: Circulation, Boundary Layer, and Clouds

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land-ocean-atmosphere system that experiences a wide range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2-part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosol, gas, and wet deposition. Seasonal changes in the circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multi-layer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite-based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold-air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration along the coast in winter, and minima in summer, suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol-cloud interactions. The performance of four climate models are assessed against satellite cloud retrievals. The models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extra-tropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanisms of Projected Changes in Thunderstorm Downburst Environments Across the United States

Responses of downdraft convective available potential energy (DCAPE) to global warming were investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) under a high‐emission scenario through the year 2100. DCAPE is projected to increase by 5%–12% on average in most areas, independently of wind shear. A diagnostic of downdraft buoyancy is introduced to understand the mechanisms of DCAPE responses. Much of the increase in mean DCAPE is temperature‐driven, with additional contributions from changes in relative humidity and downdraft origin heights. However, extreme values increase at much faster rates than can be explained by local warming. In winter, the latitude of significant DCAPE and CAPE shifts poleward by more than 5° due to larger changes in downburst environments within midlatitude cyclones. The projected increase in cold‐season extremes indicates an interaction between weather events and warming trends that increases the potential for downbursts and straight‐line winds in winter.

Williams, Ian N. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bio-fuel effects and seasonal fuel property variations related to abnormal combustion occurrences observed in the field

Since 2015, the automotive industry has regularly observed sharp increases in customer complaints of poor driveability and increased warranty claims during the months of September and October. These persistent seasonal complaint increases have been tracked to occur from increased abnormal combustion events that coincide with the seasonal transition from summer to winter fuel volatility, beginning on September 15th annually. The Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) of gasoline during this seasonal transition has been found to be the primary property attributed to this annual issue. It’s hypothesized that an increase in volatile butanes and pentanes from advanced petroleum recovery techniques and hydrofracking production has hastened the transition from summer to winter fuel volatility in the marketplace, rather than the gradual increase of the RVP over time as historically intended. At worst, mid-winter fuel, with an RVP ranging from 12 to 16 psi, depending on location in the U.S., enters the market while ambient temperatures can still be above average for the winter season. This combination of high volatility fuel with unseasonably warm weather will increase fuel system flash boiling, injector spray cavitation, and spray collapse inside the engine’s combustion chamber, ultimately linking fuel property variations to abnormal engine combustion processes. This CRADA program will investigate these known knowledge gaps by coupling with two national laboratories, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to employ both unique tools and expertise throughout the industry to provide the insight, knowledge, and data critical to understand the observed interactions. Overall findings of this work are that fuel wall retention increased SPI proportionally, and fuels with an increased distillation (i.e. energy fraction) above the wall temperature increased fuel retention. Likewise fuels with increased enthalpy of vaporization (HoV) increased fuel retention proportional to the temperature reduction from the HoV (~13K reduction in this work). Thus, fuel with increased HoV and increased fuel distillation above the linear temperature also exhibited increased SPI rates. Fuel with high RVP did exhibit increased fuel spray collapse form spray imaging measurements, but in SPI testing the high volatility of these fuels at the tested conditions did not necessarily increase SPI rates despite exhibiting increased spray collapse in injector imaging and increased spray-wall impingement measured in fired engine testing. It was also found that spray imaging showed collapse was possible at throttled conditions, but this was not relevant to high boost pressures relevant to SPI conditions, however, under transient load and or speed encountered in real-world operation fuel spray collapse could affect fuel retention and real-world SPI that were not probed in the automated high load test sequence of this work.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hygrothermal simulation of exterior retrofits in a cold climate

This work presents results from moisture modeling as part of a project undertaken by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and its research partners, the University of Minnesota, and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The research goal is to identify exterior wall retrofit systems for cold climates that are low cost, energy efficient, and do not result in moisture durability problems. A base case wall was identified representing a typical wood frame construction, circa 1950. Retrofit options were selected based on input from industry, academia, and published work and seven options were constructed and installed at the University of Minnesota’s cold weather exposure facility in Cloquet, MN. Measurements were carried out during winter months and the data was used for model validation. Hygrothermal simulations were then carried out using WUFI (Version 6.4) in accordance with standard ANSI/ASRHAE 160-2016, Criteria for Moisture-Control Design Analysis in Buildings. Simulations were run out to three years and results show that the exterior retrofits improve thermal performance and do not negatively impact moisture durability of the existing wall.

Aldykiewicz Jr, Antonio↗
DOE OSTI2020

Crop Modeling Application to Improve Irrigation Efficiency in Year-Round Vegetable Production in the Texas Winter Garden Region

Given a rising demand for quality assurance, rather than solely yield, supplemental irrigation plays an important role to ensure the viability and profitability of vegetable crops from unpredictable changes in weather. However, under drought conditions, agricultural irrigation is often given low priority for water allocation. This reduced water availability for agriculture calls for techniques with greater irrigation efficiency, that do not compromise crop quality and yield, and that provide economic benefit for producers. This study developed vegetable growing models for eight different vegetable crops (bush bean, green bean, cabbage, peppermint, spearmint, yellow straight neck squash, zucchini, and bell pepper) based on data from several years of field research. The ALMANAC model accurately simulated yields and water use efficiency (WUE) of all eight vegetables. The developed vegetable models were used to evaluate the effects of various irrigation regimes on vegetable growth and production in several locations in the Winter Garden Region of Texas, under variable weather conditions. Based on our simulation results from 960 scenarios, optimal irrigation amounts that produce high yield as well as reasonable economic profit to producers were determined for each vegetable crop. Overall, yields for all vegetables increased as irrigation amounts increased. However, irrigation amounts did not have a sustainable impact on vegetable yield at high irrigation treatments, and the WUEs of most vegetables were not significantly different among various irrigation regimes. When vegetable yields were compared with water cost, the rate decreased as irrigation amounts increased. Thus, producers will not receive economic benefits when vegetable irrigation water demand is too high.

Kim, Sumin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning Forecasts of Rare Stratospheric Transitions from Short Simulations

Abstract Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other winter, the boreal stratospheric polar vortex rapidly breaks down, shifting midlatitude surface weather patterns for months. We focus on two key quantities of interest: the probability of an SSW occurring, and the expected lead time if it does occur, as functions of initial condition. These optimal forecasts concretely measure the event’s progress. Direct numerical simulation can estimate them in principle but is prohibitively expensive in practice: each rare event requires a long integration to observe, and the cost of each integration grows with model complexity. We describe an alternative approach using integrations that are short compared to the time scale of the warming event. We compute the probability and lead time efficiently by solving equations involving the transition operator, which encodes all information about the dynamics. We relate these optimal forecasts to a small number of interpretable physical variables, suggesting optimal measurements for forecasting. We illustrate the methodology on a prototype SSW model developed by Holton and Mass and modified by stochastic forcing. While highly idealized, this model captures the essential nonlinear dynamics of SSWs and exhibits the key forecasting challenge: the dramatic separation in time scales between a single event and the return time between successive events. Our methodology is designed to fully exploit high-dimensional data from models and observations, and has the potential to identify detailed predictors of many complex rare events in meteorology.

Finkel, Justin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Muon Flux Variance from Severe Atmospheric Conditions

We analyze data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the QuarkNet Research Group at Fermilab to study the variance in muon flux due to extreme weather conditions. We considered three high-intensity storms for each season: winter, spring, and summer. The most significant observation was during winter, with a ~125% increase in muon flux corresponding to a temperature drop of ~20K. Additionally, we are developing CosmicWatch muon detectors to be used in tests for the MMBC/MAMBA Bubble Chamber. A pair of these detectors will be employed to trigger on muons, providing extremely precise and inexpensive tracking granularity in the form of a muon telescope.

Aamir, Yusuf↗