Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Evaluation of multitemporal data enchancements for the identification of winter wheat fields
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There are no author-identified significant results in this report.
There are no author-identified significant results in this report.
There are no author-identified significant results in this report.
The Robertson phenology was used to provide growth stage information to a wheat stress indicator mode. A stress indicator model demands two acurate predictions from a crop calendar: date of spring growth initiation; and crop calendar stage at growth initiation. Several approaches for restarting the Robertson phenology model at spring growth initiation were studied. Although best results were obtained with a solar thermal unit method, an alternate approach which indicates soil temperature as the controlling parameter for spring growth initiation was selected and tested. The modified model (Doraiswamy-Thompson) is compared to LACIE-Robertson model predictions.
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The author has identified the following significant results. The estimates of developmental stage dates from the LACIE adjustable crop calendar (ACC) winter wheat model was somewhat more accurate than the historical crop calendar after jointing. The ACC winter wheat model was not so accurate for the Texas Panhandle as it was for the other areas of the USPG-7 because dry soil conditions delayed fall planting in the Panhandle. Since the LACIE ACC winter wheat model does not contain a moisture term and it was started with historical planting dates, lengthy delays in planting mean that the ACC model will probably be started early and will estimate the developmental growth stages to occur too early in the season. The LACIE ACC spring wheat model was also started early in most areas because of late planting due to fields wet from melting snow and rain. The starter model used to estimate spring planting dates was not accurate under these wet soil conditions and tended to predict the developmental stages to occur earlier than the dates observed in the fields.
A test site for the study of winter wheat development and collection of ERTS data was established in September of 1973. The test site is a 10 mile square area located 12.5 miles west of Amarillo, Texas on Interstate Hwy. 40, in Randall and Potter counties. The center of the area is the Southwestern Great Plains Research Center at Bushland, Texas. Within the test area all wheat fields were identified by ground truth and designated irrigated or dryland. The fields in the test area other than wheat were identified as to pasture or the crop that was grown. A ground truth area of hard red winter wheat was established west of Hale Center, Texas. Maps showing the location of winter wheat fields in excess of 40 acres in size within a 10 mile radius were supplied NASA. Satellite data was collected for this test site (ERTS-1).
Electrical scanning microwave radiometer brightness temperature, meteorological data, climatological data, and winter wheat crop information were used to estimate that soil moisture content in the Great Plains region. Results over the predominant winter wheat areas indicate that the best potential to infer soil moisture occurs during fall and spring. These periods encompass the growth stages when soil moisture is most important to winter wheat yield. Other significant results are reported.
It appears that the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment over the Great Plains, can with a reasonable expectation, be a satisfactory component of a 90/90 production estimator. The area estimator produced more accurate area estimates for the total winter wheat region than for the mixed spring and winter wheat region of the northern Great Plains. The accuracy does appear to degrade somewhat in regions of marginal agriculture where there are small fields and abundant confusion crops. However, it would appear that these regions tend also to be marginal with respect to wheat production and thus increased area estimation errors do not greatly influence the overall production estimation accuracy in the United States. The loss of segments resulting from cloud cover appears to be a random phenomenon that introduces no significant bias into the estimates. This loss does increase the variance of the estimates.
Of the three candidate approaches to adjustment of the crop calendar to account for year-to-year weather differences, the Robertson triquadratic unit, a function of a nonlinear function of maximum and minimum temperature and day length, best described the rate of phenological development of wheat. The adjustable crop calendar (ACC) as implemented for LACIE is used to calculate the daily increment of development through six physiological stages of growth. Topics covered include dormancy modeling, the spring restart model, spring wheat starter model, winter starter model, winter wheat starter model, inclusion of the moisture variable, and display of crop stage estimation results. Assessment of the ACC accuracy over the period of LACIE operation indicates that the adjustable crop calendars used provided more accurate information than would have been available using historical norms. The models performed best under the conditions from which they were derived (Canadian spring wheat) and most poorly for the dwarf varieties and Southern Hemisphere applications.
Crop stress measured using thermal infrared emission is evaluated with the stress-degree-day (SDD) concept. Throughout the season, the accumulation of SDD during the reproductive stage of growth is inversely related to yield. This relationship is shown for durum wheat, hard red winter wheat, barley, grain sorghum and soybeans. It is noted that SDD can be used to schedule irrigations for maximizing yields and for applying remotely sensed data to management of water resources. An airborne flight with a thermal-IR scanner was used to examine the variability in temperature that may exist from one field to another and to determine realistic within-field temperature variations. It was found that the airborne and the ground-based data agreed very well and that there was less variability in the fields that were completely covered with crops than those of bare soil.
Data previously compiled on the year to year variability of spectral profile crop growth parameters for spring and winter wheat in Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Dakotas were used with a profile model to develop graphs illustrating spectral profile crop growth curves for a number of years and a number of spring and winter wheat segments. These curves show the apparent variability in spectral profiles for wheat from one year to another within the same segment and from one segment to another within the same year.
Ground truth, aircraft, and satellite data were examined in order to: (1) assess the capability for determining wheat and pasture canopy temperatures in a dryland farming region from HCMM data; (2) assess the capability for determining soil moisture from HCMM data in dryland crops (winter wheat) from adjacent range lands; and (3) determine the relationship of HCMM-derived soil moisture and canopy temperature values with the condition of winter wheat and dryland farming areas during the principal growth stages. The IR data were screened to include areas having greater than 60% pasture and surface temperatures were recalculated using the atmospheric correction factor calculated by the modified RADTRA model, and the July 29, 1978 IR data were analyzed. Screening the IR data improved the relationship for July 24/July 13 and October 7/August 31 temperature/API relationship. However the coefficient of determination was not improved in the July 29/July 13 relationship.
Large-area relations between satellite spectral data and end-of-season crop yield were investigated. Green Index Number (GIN) values from Landsat MSS data of sample segments throughout the U.S. Great Plains winter wheat belt in 1978 were correlated to county USDA-SRS reported yields. A linear relation between GIN and yield appeared to exist up to GIN values of 40 or 50, covering cases of severe to moderate stress. In a test on 1978 Texas winter wheat at the county level, GIN values for sample segments in the counties were used in conjunction with an agronomic-meteorological yield model. The combined fit explained significantly more of the observed yield variation at the county level than the agromet model alone.
Groundwater extraction in the United States (US) is unsustainable, making it essential to understand the impacts of limited water use on irrigated agriculture. To improve this understanding, we integrated a gridded crop model with satellite observations, recharge estimates, and water survey data to assess the effects of sustainable groundwater withdrawals on US irrigated agricultural production. The gridded crop model agrees with satellite-based estimates of evapotranspiration (R2 = 0.68), as well as survey data from the United States Department of Agriculture (R2 = 0.82–0.94 for county-level production and 0.37–0.54 for county-level yield). Using the optimistic assumption that groundwater extraction equals effective aquifer recharge rate, we find that sustainable groundwater use decreases US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat by 20%, 6%, and 25%, respectively. Using a more conservative assumption of groundwater availability, US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat decreases by 45%, 37%, and 36%, respectively. The wide range of simulated losses is driven by considerable uncertainty in surface water and groundwater interactions, as well as accounting for the many aspects of sustainability. Our results demonstrate the vulnerability of US irrigated agriculture to unsustainable groundwater pumping, highlighting the difficulty of expanding or even maintaining irrigated food production in the face of climate change, population growth, and shifting dietary demands. These findings are based on reducing pumping by fallowing irrigated farmland; however, alternate pumping reduction strategies or technological advances in crop genetics and irrigation could produce different results.
This report describes the results of a study involving the use of computer-aided analysis techniques applied to Landsat MSS data for identification and area estimation of winter wheat in Kansas and corn and soybeans in Indiana. Key elements of the approach included use of aerial photography for classifier training, stratification of Landsat data and extension of training statistics to areas without training data, and classification of a systematic sample of pixels from each county. Major results and conclusions are: (1) Landsat data was adequate for accurate identification and area estimation of winter wheat in Kansas, but corn and soybean estimates for Indiana were less accurate; (2) computer-aided analysis techniques can be effectively used to extract crop identification information from Landsat MSS data, and (3) systematic sampling of entire counties made possible by computer classification methods resulted in very precise area estimates at county as well as district and state levels.