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DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Biomass Yields of Advanced Switchgrass Cultivars for Bioenergy and Ecosystem Services Using Machine Learning

The production of advanced perennial bioenergy crops within marginal areas of the agricultural landscape is gaining interest due to its potential to sustainably produce feedstocks for biofuels and bioproducts while also improving the sustainability and resilience of commodity crop production. However, predicting the biomass yields of this production system is challenging because marginal areas are often relatively small and spread around agricultural fields and are typically associated with various abiotic conditions that limit crop production. Machine learning (ML) offers a viable solution as a biomass yield prediction tool because it is suited to predicting relationships with complex functional associations. The objectives of this study were to (1) evaluate the accuracy of commonly applied ML algorithms in agricultural applications for predicting the biomass yields of advanced switchgrass cultivars for bioenergy and ecosystem services and (2) determine the most important biomass yield predictors. Datasets on biomass yield, weather, land marginality, soil properties, and agronomic management were generated from three field study sites in two U.S. Midwest states (Illinois and Iowa) over three growing seasons. The ML algorithms evaluated in the study included random forests (RFs), gradient boosting machines (GBMs), artificial neural networks (ANNs), K-neighbors regressor (KNR), AdaBoost regressor (ABR), and partial least squares regression (PLSR). Coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the tested algorithms. Results showed that the ensemble methods, RF (R 2 = 0.86, MAE = 0.62 Mg/ha), GBM (R 2 = 0.88, MAE = 0.57 Mg/ha), and GBM (R 2 = 0.78, MAE = 0.66 Mg/ha), were the most accurate in predicting biomass yields of the Independence, Liberty, and Shawnee switchgrass cultivars, respectively. This is in agreement with similar studies that apply ML to multi-feature problems where traditional statistical methods are less applicable and datasets used were considered to be relatively small for ANNs. Consistent with previous studies on switchgrass, the most important predictors of biomass yield included average annual temperature, average growing season temperature, sum of the growing season precipitation, field slope, and elevation. This study helps pave the way for applying ML as a management tool for alternative bioenergy landscapes where understanding agronomic and environmental performance of a multifunctional cropping system seasonally and interannually at the sub-field scale is critical.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2010

An Investigation of Widespread Ozone Damage to the Soybean Crop in the Upper Midwest Determined From Ground-Based and Satellite Measurements

Elevated concentrations of ground-level ozone (O3) are frequently measured over farmland regions in many parts of the world. While numerous experimental studies show that O3 can significantly decrease crop productivity, independent verifications of yield losses at current ambient O3 concentrations in rural locations are sparse. In this study, soybean crop yield data during a 5-year period over the Midwest of the United States were combined with ground and satellite O3 measurements to provide evidence that yield losses on the order of 10% could be estimated through the use of a multiple linear regression model. Yield loss trends based on both conventional ground-based instrumentation and satellite-derived tropospheric O3 measurements were statistically significant and were consistent with results obtained from open-top chamber experiments and an open-air experimental facility (SoyFACE, Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment) in central Illinois. Our analysis suggests that such losses are a relatively new phenomenon due to the increase in background tropospheric O3 levels over recent decades. Extrapolation of these findings supports previous studies that estimate the global economic loss to the farming community of more than $10 billion annually.

Fishman, Jack↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impoverishing Roots Will Improve Wheat Yield and Profitability Through Increased Water and Nitrogen Use Efficiencies

We report that more than a 60% increase in crop production is required by the 2050's to feed a growing world population. Understanding how plant functional traits and field management affect crop yields has the potential to improve agricultural productivity, minimize economic and environmental losses, and maximize food security. We explored the influence of winter wheat root characteristics and management on winter wheat growth, yield, and profit using a mechanistic and well-tested ecosystem and crop model, ecosys. We applied and further tested ecosys at an agricultural farm growing winter wheat in Ardmore, Oklahoma, United States. The model accurately predicted observed shoot carbon (R 2 = 0.95), soil moisture (R 2 = 0.67), soil temperature (R 2 = 0.91), and yield (percent error = 17%). Numerical optimization experiments were conducted to explore potential improvements of winter wheat yield and profit by modifying root characteristics, including root radius and root:shoot carbon transfer conductance, and fertilizer inputs. Our results show the potential for simultaneously improving winter wheat yields and profits. The optimum conditions were found to be in the range of root radius between 0.1 and 0.3 mm, carbon transfer conductance between 0.004 and 0.01 h -1 , and the currently applied fertilizer rate of 112 kg ha -1 . Under these conditions, improvements in yields and profits of up to approximately 25% and 110%, respectively, were modeled compared to those under baseline root traits. These improvements were achieved by impoverishing root structures, thereby increasing nutrient allocation to grains. Our results also demonstrate and motivate model structures that integrate the complex network of plant physiology, soil nutrient biogeochemistry, hydrology, and management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Managing Plant Microbiomes for Sustainable Biofuel Production

The development of environmentally sustainable, economical, and reliable sources of energy is one of the great challenges of the 21st century. Large-scale cultivation of cellulosic feedstock crops (henceforth, bioenergy crops) is considered one of the most promising renewable sources for liquid transportation fuels. However, the mandate to develop a viable cellulosic bioenergy industry is accompanied by an equally urgent mandate to deliver not only cheap reliable biomass but also ecosystem benefits, including efficient use of water, nitrogen, and phosphorous; restored soil health; and net negative carbon emissions. Thus, sustainable bioenergy crop production may involve new agricultural practices or feedstocks and should be reliable, cost effective, and minimal input, without displacing crops currently grown for food production on fertile land. In this editorial perspective for the Phytobiomes Journal Focus Issue on Phytobiomes of Bioenergy Crops and Agroecosystems, we consider the microbiomes associated with bioenergy crops, the effects beneficial microbes have on their hosts, and potential ecosystem impacts of these interactions. We also address outstanding questions, major advances, and emerging biotechnological strategies to design and manipulate bioenergy crop microbiomes. This approach could simultaneously increase crop yields and provide important ecosystem services for a sustainable energy future.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Switchgrass Microbiome: A Review of Structure, Function, and Taxonomic Distribution

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has been championed as a promising bioenergy crop due to its high productivity across a wide environmental range. The switchgrass microbiome—including bacteria, archaea, fungi, and other microbiota inhabiting soil and plant tissues—can influence plant function substantially. We conducted a review of the literature investigating switchgrass microbiome structure, key functional roles, and taxa isolated from field-grown plants. Although site conditions and plant compartment (i.e., location within shoots, roots, or root-influenced soil) appear to be the strongest drivers of switchgrass microbiome structure, the microbiome is also shaped by climate, season, and host genotype. Studies comparing across plant species show that the switchgrass microbiome is more similar to the microbiomes of other perennial plants than to the microbiomes of annual plants. Members of the switchgrass microbiome confer several benefits to their host. Most notably, mycorrhizal fungi can increase plant biomass many-fold, associative nitrogen-fixing bacteria can provide a substantial portion of the plant’s nitrogen demand, and fungal endophytes can improve plant tolerance to drought. Although the fungi and bacteria cultured from switchgrass represent only a portion of the microbiome, these serve as a valuable resource for researchers interested in investigating functional outcomes of the switchgrass microbiome. We highlight areas where additional research is necessary for a more comprehensive understanding of switchgrass microbiome structure, function, and potential to enhance sustainable bioenergy production. Key gaps include the role of understudied organisms (e.g., viruses, microeukaryotes, and nonmycorrhizal fungi), multitrophic relationships, mechanisms underpinning switchgrass–microbiome interactions, and field-scale validation of experimental findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Climate Change Impacts on Rice Farming Systems in Northwestern Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has achieved tremendous progress since 1950 in crop production and food availability. Yields grew at an impressive rate until leveling off in the mid-eighties. Sri Lanka's population is anticipated to grow in the coming decades, creating an ever-greater demand for food security on the household, sub-district, regional, and national scales.The agricultural sector in Sri Lanka is vulnerable to climate shocks. An unusual succession of droughts and floods from 2008 to 2014 has led to both booms and busts in agricultural production, which were reflected in food prices. In both instances, the majority of farmers and consumers were adversely affected.At present the rice-farming systems are under stress due to inadequate returns for the farmers and difficulty in coping with shocks due to climate, pests, and diseases, and prices for produce. There are government price-support mechanisms, fertilizer-subsidy schemes, and crop insurance schemes, but the levels of the supports are modest and often do not effectively reach the farmers.

agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2021

Microbial communities for valorizing biomass using the carboxylate platform to produce volatile fatty acids: A review

The carboxylate platform employs a diverse microbial consortium of anaerobes in which the methanogens are inhibited. Nearly all biomass components are digested to a mixture of C1-C8 monocarboxylic acids and their corresponding salts. The methane-arrested anaerobic digestion proceeds readily without needing to sterilize biomass or equipment. It accepts a wide range of feedstocks (e.g., agricultural residues, municipal solid waste, sewage sludge, animal manure, food waste, algae, and energy crops), and produces high product yields. This review highlights several important aspects of the platform, including its thermodynamic underpinnings, influences of inoculum source and operating conditions on product formation, and downstream chemical processes that convert the carboxylates to hydrocarbon fuels and oxygenated chemicals. Furthermore, this review further establishes the carboxylate platform as a viable and economical route to industrial biomass utilization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Single-cell visualization and quantification of trace metals in Chlamydomonas lysosome-related organelles

Significance Transition metals are of crucial importance for primary productivity; their scarcity limits crop yield in agriculture and carbon sequestration on a global scale. Copper (Cu), iron (Fe), and manganese (Mn) are among the most important trace elements that enable the redox chemistry in oxygenic photosynthesis. The single-celled, eukaryotic green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii is a choice experimental system for studying trace metal homeostasis in the context of phototrophy, offering all the advantages of a classical microbial system with a well-characterized photosystem and trace metal metabolism machinery of relevance to plants. This project identifies and differentiates different trace metal storage sites in Chlamydomonas and uncovers the dynamics of trace metal storage and mobilization in situations of fluctuating resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Time‐series multi‐omics analysis of micronutrient stress in Sorghum bicolor reveals iron and zinc crosstalk and regulatory network conservation

Micronutrient stress impacts growth, biomass production, and grain yield in crops. Multi-omics studies are valuable resources in identifying genes for functional studies and trait improvement, such as accumulation of Fe or Zn under deficient or excess conditions for bioenergy or grain agriculture. We conducted transcriptomics and ionomics analyses on Sorghum bicolor BTx623, grown under Fe and Zn limited and excess conditions over a 21-day period. To identify early and late transcriptional response in roots and leaves, 180 RNAseq libraries were sequenced for differential expression and co-expression network analyses. Fe and Zn accumulation was measured using ICP-MS at each time point, and a fluorometer was used to estimate chlorophyll content in leaves. Among the four treatments, Fe limitation and Zn excess resulted in the largest phenotypic effects and transcriptional response in roots and leaves. Several of the reduction (Strategy I) and chelation (Strategy II) strategy genes that improve bioavailability of Fe and Zn in plant roots often used by non-grass and grass species, respectively, were differentially expressed. Gene regulatory network (GRN) analysis of roots revealed enrichment of genes from Fe limiting and Zn excess which strongly connect to homologues of SbFIT, SbPYE, and SbBTS as hub genes. The GRN for leaf responses showed homologues of SbPYE and SbBTS as hubs connecting genes for chloroplast biosynthesis, Fe-S cluster assembly, photosynthesis, and ROS scavenging. Expression analyses suggest sorghum uses Strategy II genes for Fe and Zn uptake, as expected, but can also utilize Strategy I genes, which may be advantageous in variable moisture environments. We found strong overlap between Fe and Zn responsive GRNs, indicative of micronutrient crosstalk. We also found conservation of root and leaf GRNs, and known homologous genes suggest strong constraints on homeostasis networks in plants. These data will provide a resource for functional genetics to enhance micronutrient transport in sorghum, and opportunities to conduct further comparative GRN analysis across diverse crops species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1981

Selection of the Australian indicator region

Each Australian state was examined for the availability of LANDSAT data, area, yield, and production characteristics, statistics, crop calendars, and other ancillary data. Agrophysical conditions that could influence labeling and classification accuracies were identified in connection with the highest producing states as determined from available Australian crop statistics. Based primarily on these production statistics, Western Australia and New South Wales were selected as the wheat indicator region for Australia. The general characteristics of wheat in the indicator region, with potential problems anticipated for proportion estimation are considered. The varieties of wheat, the diseases and pests common to New South Wales, and the wheat growing regions of both states are examined.

Reed, C. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The limits of crop productivity: validating theoretical estimates and determining the factors that limit crop yields in optimal environments

Plant scientists have sought to maximize the yield of food crops since the beginning of agriculture. There are numerous reports of record food and biomass yields (per unit area) in all major crop plants, but many of the record yield reports are in error because they exceed the maximal theoretical rates of the component processes. In this article, we review the component processes that govern yield limits and describe how each process can be individually measured. This procedure has helped us validate theoretical estimates and determine what factors limit yields in optimal environments.

NASA Program CELSS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Monitoring Crop Yield in USA Using a Satellite-Based Climate-Variability Impact Index

A quantitative index is applied to monitor crop growth and predict agricultural yield in continental USA. The Climate-Variability Impact Index (CVII), defined as the monthly contribution to overall anomalies in growth during a given year, is derived from 1-km MODIS Leaf Area Index. The growing-season integrated CVII can provide an estimate of the fractional change in overall growth during a given year. In turn these estimates can provide fine-scale and aggregated information on yield for various crops. Trained from historical records of crop production, a statistical model is used to produce crop yield during the growing season based upon the strong positive relationship between crop yield and the CVII. By examining the model prediction as a function of time, it is possible to determine when the in-season predictive capability plateaus and which months provide the greatest predictive capacity.

Zhang, Ping↗

NASA NTRS2012

Climate Change and Food Security: The View from Space

Global satellite data provides information on land use, rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation vigor and crop yields. Process-based products allows transformation of these data into information that can be used to assess impact of weather on commodity prices and local economic health. Trends and impact of climate change

Brown, Molly E.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Hybrid phenology matching model for robust crop phenological retrieval

Crop phenology regulates seasonal agroecosystem carbon, water, and energy exchanges, and is a key component in empirical and process-based crop models for simulating biogeochemical cycles of farmlands, assessing gross and net primary production, and forecasting the crop yield. The advances in phenology matching models provide a feasible means to monitor crop phenological progress using remote sensing observations, with a priori information of reference shapes and reference phenological transition dates. Yet the underlying geometrical scaling assumption of models, together with the challenge in defining phenological references, hinders the applicability of phenology matching in crop phenological studies. The objective of this study is to develop a novel hybrid phenology matching model to robustly retrieve a diverse spectrum of crop phenological stages using satellite time series. The devised hybrid model leverages the complementary strengths of phenometric extraction methods and phenology matching models. It relaxes the geometrical scaling assumption and can characterize key phenological stages of crop cycles, ranging from farming practice-relevant stages (e.g., planted and harvested) to crop development stages (e.g., emerged and mature). To systematically evaluate the influence of phenological references on phenology matching, four representative phenological reference scenarios under varying levels of phenological calibrations in terms of time and space are further designed with publicly accessible phenological information. The results indicate that the hybrid phenology matching model can achieve high accuracies for estimating corn and soybean phenological growth stages in Illinois, particularly with the year- and region-adjusted phenological reference (R-squared higher than 0.9 and RMSE less than 5 days for most phenological stages). The inter-annual and regional phenological patterns characterized by the hybrid model correspond well with those in the crop progress reports (CPRs) from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Compared to the benchmark phenology matching model, the hybrid model is more robust to the decreasing levels of phenological reference calibrations, and is particularly advantageous in retrieving crop early phenological stages (e.g., planted and emerged stages) when the phenological reference information is limited. This innovative hybrid phenology matching model, together with CPR-enabled phenological reference calibrations, holds 3 considerable promise in revealing spatio-temporal patterns of crop phenology over extended geographical regions.

Phenology↗

NASA NTRS2018

Global Patterns of Crop Yield Stability Under Additional Nutrient and Water Inputs

Agricultural production must increase to feed a growing and wealthier population, as well as to satisfy increasing demands for biomaterials and biomass-based energy. At the same time, deforestation and land-use change need to be minimized in order to preserve biodiversity and maintain carbon stores in vegetation and soils. Consequently, agricultural land use needs to be intensified in order to increase food production per unit area of land. Here we use simulations of AgMIP's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 to assess implications of input-driven intensification (water, nutrients) on crop yield and yield stability, which is an important aspect in food security. We find region- and crop-specific responses for the simulated period 1980+/-2009 with broadly increasing yield variability under additional nitrogen inputs and stabilizing yields under additional water inputs (irrigation), reflecting current patterns of water and nutrient limitation. The different models of the GGCMI ensemble show similar response patterns, but model differences warrant further research on management assumptions, such as variety selection and soil management, and inputs as well as on model implementation of different soil and plant processes, such as on heat stress, and parameters. Higher variability in crop productivity under higher fertilizer input will require adequate buffer mechanisms in trade and distribution/storage networks to avoid food price volatility.

Maize↗

DOE OSTI2021

Towards a dynamic photosynthesis model to guide yield improvement in C4 crops

Summary The most productive C4 food and biofuel crops, such as Saccharum officinarum (sugarcane), Sorghum bicolor (sorghum) and Zea mays (maize), all use NADP‐ME‐type C4 photosynthesis. Despite high productivities, these crops fall well short of the theoretical maximum solar conversion efficiency of 6%. Understanding the basis of these inefficiencies is key for bioengineering and breeding strategies to increase the sustainable productivity of these major C4 crops. Photosynthesis is studied predominantly at steady state in saturating light. In field stands of these crops light is continually changing, and often with rapid fluctuations. Although light may change in a second, the adjustment of photosynthesis may take many minutes, leading to inefficiencies. We measured the rates of CO 2 uptake and stomatal conductance of maize, sorghum and sugarcane under fluctuating light regimes. The gas exchange results were combined with a new dynamic photosynthesis model to infer the limiting factors under non‐steady‐state conditions. The dynamic photosynthesis model was developed from an existing C4 metabolic model for maize and extended to include: (i) post‐translational regulation of key photosynthetic enzymes and their temperature responses; (ii) dynamic stomatal conductance; and (iii) leaf energy balance. Testing the model outputs against measured rates of leaf CO 2 uptake and stomatal conductance in the three C4 crops indicated that Rubisco activase, the pyruvate phosphate dikinase regulatory protein and stomatal conductance are the major limitations to the efficiency of NADP‐ME‐type C4 photosynthesis during dark‐to‐high light transitions. We propose that the level of influence of these limiting factors make them targets for bioengineering the improved photosynthetic efficiency of these key crops.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Sustained Food Production in the Veggie Vegetable Production System

Since 2014, the Veggie vegetable production system on the International Space Station has intermittently supplied astronaut crews with fresh produce. To assess the potential for continuous crop production in Veggie and develop a baseline for future space crop production systems, a 120-day study was conducted to determine methodology for inputs, optimal yield, food safety standards, and crew involvement. ‘Amara’ mustard and ‘Red Russian’ kale were grown as initial crops, followed by ‘Extra Dwarf’ pakchoi and shungiku as final crops. Previous grow-outs in Veggie have included harvests at 28-35 days after initiation. In this study, a 56-day grow-out with multiple harvests from the same plants was compared to the conventional, single harvest Veggie schedule. Unlike previous Veggie studies which grew all plants simultaneously, this test staggered initiation and harvest, aiming for consistent and increased production. Plant pillows were initiated in pairs weekly and positioned to reduce shading. Completed pillows were immediately replaced with fresh ones. The multi-harvest scheme used fewer pillows, totaling 46% less pillow mass than the single harvest method. Yield varied by crop and harvest scheme, when compared as fresh edible biomass production across 56-day time increments. ‘Red Russian’ kale yielded similarly across harvest schemes. In the multiple-harvest schedule, ‘Amara’ mustard and shungiku yielded 23% to 25% higher, respectively, while ‘Extra Dwarf’ pakchoi had 43% lower yield. Microbial analysis of the plants indicated no culturable human pathogens. Microbial load of a given plant appeared to depend more on system age than plant age; across harvest methods, aerobic plate counts from final crops were higher than those of initial crops. This project also considered the complexity of crew involvement in a continuous production scenario. New crew procedures that periodically remove plant material from the Veggie root mat would be needed under continuous production to prevent potential pathogens and unpleasant odors. This study supports future space crop production scenarios and was funded by NASA’s Human Research Program.

Jess M Bunchek↗

NASA NTRS2016

Regional Disparities in the Beneficial Effects of Rising CO2 Emissions on Crop Water Productivity

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce crop water use. However, there is high uncertainty about the global implications of these effects for future crop production and agricultural water requirements under climate change. Here we combine results from networks of field experiments and global crop models to present a spatially explicit global perspective on crop water productivity (CWP, the ratio of crop yield to evapotranspiration) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean under elevated carbon dioxide and associated climate change projected for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We find carbon dioxide effects increase global CWP by 10[0;47]%-27[7;37]% (median[interquartile range] across the model ensemble) by the 2080s depending on crop types, with particularly large increases in arid regions (by up to 48[25;56]% for rain fed wheat). If realized in the fields, the effects of elevated carbon dioxide could considerably mitigate global yield losses whilst reducing agricultural consumptive water use (4-17%). We identify regional disparities driven by differences in growing conditions across agro-ecosystems that could have implications for increasing food production without compromising water security. Finally, our results demonstrate the need to expand field experiments and encourage greater consistency in modeling the effects of rising carbon dioxide across crop and hydrological modeling communities.

Deryng, Delphine↗