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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Imaging elliptically polarized infrared near-fields on nanoparticles by strong-field dissociation of functional surface groups

Abstract We investigate the strong-field ion emission from the surface of isolated silica nanoparticles aerosolized from an alcoholic solution, and demonstrate the applicability of the recently reported near-field imaging at 720 nm [Rupp et al., Nat. Comm., 10(1):4655, 2019] to longer wavelength (2 $$\mu $$ μ m) and polarizations with arbitrary ellipticity. Based on the experimental observations, we discuss the validity of a previously introduced semi-classical model, which is based on near-field driven charge generation by a Monte-Carlo approach and classical propagation. We furthermore clarify the role of the solvent in the surface composition of the nanoparticles in the interaction region. We find that upon injection of the nanoparticles into the vacuum, the alcoholic solvent evaporates on millisecond time scales, and that the generated ions originate predominantly from covalent bonds with the silica surface rather than from physisorbed solvent molecules. These findings have important implications for the development of future theoretical models of the strong-field ion emission from silica nanoparticles, and the application of near-field imaging and reaction dynamics of functional groups on isolated nanoparticles. Graphical abstract

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

A new process-based and scale-aware desert dust emission scheme for global climate models – Part I: Description and evaluation against inverse modeling emissions

Desert dust accounts for most of the atmosphere's aerosol burden by mass and produces numerous important impacts on the Earth system. However, current global climate models (GCMs) and land-surface models (LSMs) struggle to accurately represent key dust emission processes, in part because of inadequate representations of soil particle sizes that affect the dust emission threshold, surface roughness elements that absorb wind momentum, and boundary-layer characteristics that control wind fluctuations. Furthermore, because dust emission is driven by small-scale (~ 1 km or smaller) processes, simulating the global cycle of desert dust in GCMs with coarse horizontal resolutions (~ 100 km) presents a fundamental challenge. This representation problem is exacerbated by dust emission fluxes scaling nonlinearly with wind speed above a threshold wind speed that is sensitive to land-surface characteristics. Here, we address these fundamental problems underlying the simulation of dust emissions in GCMs and LSMs by developing improved descriptions of (1) the effect of soil texture on the dust emission threshold, (2) the effects of nonerodible roughness elements (both rocks and green vegetation) on the surface wind stress, and (3) the effects of boundary-layer turbulence on driving intermittent dust emissions. We then use the resulting revised dust emission parameterization to simulate global dust emissions in a standalone model forced by reanalysis meteorology and land-surface fields. We further propose (4) a simple methodology to rescale lower-resolution dust emission simulations to match the spatial variability of higher-resolution emission simulations in GCMs. The resulting dust emission simulation shows substantially improved agreement against regional dust emissions observationally constrained by inverse modeling. We thus find that our revised dust emission parameterization can substantially improve dust emission simulations in GCMs and LSMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Doppler Lidar Motion-Correction Wind Profiles (DLMCPROF-WIND) Value-Added Product Report

Wind speed and direction, together with pressure, temperature, and relative humidity, are the most fundamental atmospheric state parameters. Accurate measurement of these parameters is crucial for numerical weather prediction. Vertically resolved wind measurements in the atmospheric boundary layer are particularly important for modeling pollutant and aerosol transport. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility currently operates several scanning coherent Doppler lidar (DL) systems that provide accurate height-resolved measurements of wind speed and direction. These instruments operate in the near infrared (IR;1.5 microns) and provide range-resolved measurements of radial velocity, attenuated aerosol backscatter, and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The systems are operated using a fixed scan schedule consisting of plan position indicator (PPI) or Doppler Beam-Swing (DBS) scans. PPI scans are performed by scanning the beam in azimuth while maintaining a fixed elevation angle, and DBS scans are similar but typically also include a vertical beam. Radial velocity data from these scans are processed to yield profiles of wind speed direction. For stationary ground-based deployments, the Doppler Lidar Horizontal Wind Profiles (DLPROF-WIND) Value-Added-Product (VAP) provides height- and time-resolved measurements of the winds (Newsom and Krishnamurthy 2022). For operation on a moving platform, modifications to the existing DLPROF-WIND VAP are required to compensate for the effects of the platform motion. This report describes a parallel VAP, DLMCPROF-WIND, that was developed for computing motion-compensated wind profiles from ARM Doppler lidar data acquired during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) campaign, when the lidar was deployed on the German icebreaker Polarstern.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Zeteotech, LLC TRGR Project Final Report

Reliable detection of aerosolized pathogens is difficult due to need to distinguish between the benign bioaerosols such as dander and pollen and the thousands of pathogens capable of infecting people. Accurate identification of airborne pathogens of concern in the past has required the collection of aerosol samples in a filter, periodic collection of the samples, and processing and identification in the laboratory. This process is labor intensive and expensive. Additionally, this method necessarily has a time to detection window of hours to days depending on the collection frequency. Biological pathogens have an incubation period before the onset of symptoms and severe health effects and/or mortality, people will typically be exposed to them without realizing it. This has resulted in a detect to treat strategy for protection against bio releases. While prophylactic measures can still be effective over these time scales, reducing the time to detection will significantly improve the effectiveness of these measures and subsequently reduce the consequences of a release. Various attempts to reduce the time to detection and identification have been plagued by highly undesirable false-positives which degrade confidence in the system. Zeteotech, LLC has developed a mass spectrometer based bioaerosol sensing system which is capable of autonomously identifying airborne pathogens of concern and alert authorities within minutes instead of hours to days. They have deployed these instruments to protect high-risk facilities by alerting authorities of public health events and intentional bioterrorism events in near real time. This makes it possible to more accurately identify the time and location of the release and minimize the number of people that are exposed through prompt quarantining of affected areas.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of environmental backgrounds on atmospheric monitoring of nuclear explosions

Radionuclide monitoring for nuclear explosions includes measuring radioactive aerosol and noble gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) has made such measurements for decades, revealing much about how atmospheric radioactivity impacts the sensitivity of the network. For example, civilian emissions of radioiodine make a substantial regional impact, but a minor global impact, while civilian radioxenon emissions create major regional and complex global impacts. This example statement is strongly influenced by the minimum signal level anticipated to be interesting. The original design of the IMS anticipated relatively large signal levels, and the accomplished IMS network substantially meets or exceeds the sensitivity needed to detect those signal levels. Much lower signal levels can be motivated, which could require reconsideration of station sensitivity. Using measured and simulated background concentrations, various possible desired signal levels, and an innovative anomaly threshold, maps of sensitivity and a station ranking are developed for current and future stations. These provide a strong motivation for additional experimentation to learn about sources and the potential plusses of new technology.

Eslinger, Paul W.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenging and Improving the Simulation of Mid-Level Mixed-Phase Clouds Over the High-Latitude Southern Ocean

Climate models exhibit major radiative biases over the Southern Ocean owing to a poor representation of mixed-phase clouds. In this study, we used the remote-sensing dataset from the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) campaign to assess the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to reproduce frontal clouds off Antarctica. It focuses on the modeling of thin mid-level supercooled liquid water layers which precipitate ice. The standard version of WRF produces almost fully glaciated clouds and cannot reproduce cloud top turbulence. Our work demonstrates the importance of adapting the ice nucleation parameterization to the pristine austral atmosphere to reproduce the supercooled liquid layers. Once simulated, droplets significantly impact the cloud radiative effect by increasing downwelling longwave fluxes and decreasing downwelling shortwave fluxes at the surface. The net radiative effect is a warming of snow and ice covered surfaces and a cooling of the ocean. Despite improvements in our simulations, the local turbulent circulation related to cloud-top radiative cooling is not properly reproduced, advocating for the need to develop a parameterization for top-down convection to capture the turbulence-microphysics interplay at cloud top.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intercomparison of Three Continuous Monitoring Systems on Operating Oil and Gas Sites

We compare continuous monitoring systems (CMS) from three different vendors on six operating oil and gas sites in the Appalachian Basin using several months of data. We highlight similarities and differences between the three CMS solutions when deployed in the field and compare their output to concurrent top-down aerial measurements and to site-level bottom-up inventories. Furthermore, we compare vendor-provided emission rate estimates to estimates from an open-source quantification algorithm applied to the raw CMS concentration data. This experimental setup allows us to separate the effect of the sensor platform (i.e., sensor type and arrangement) from the quantification algorithm. We find that 1) localization and quantification estimates rarely agree between the three CMS solutions on short time scales (i.e., 30 min), but temporally aggregated emission rate distributions are similar between solutions, 2) differences in emission rate distributions are generally driven by the quantification algorithm, rather than the sensor platform, 3) agreement between CMS and aerial rate estimates varies by CMS solution but is close to parity when CMS estimates are averaged across solutions, and 4) similar sites with similar bottom-up inventories do not necessarily have similar emission characteristics. These results have important implications for developing measurement-informed inventories and for incorporating CMS-inferred emission characteristics into emission mitigation efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental investigation of the effect of pore size distribution on nano-particle capture efficiency within ceramic particulate filters

The effect of the pore size distribution on size-resolved filtration efficiency was investigated for two ceramic particulate filters using particulate matter (PM) generated by a spark-ignition direct-injection engine fueled with gasoline. The cordierite filter tested had a porosity of 43%, a median pore diameter (d_50) of 12 µm, and a wide pore size distribution with a lognormal standard deviation (s’) of 0.3. The aluminum titanate filter had very similar porosity, d_50, and thickness, but significantly narrower pore size distribution (s’ = 0.1). The testing of two filters under identical experimental conditions enabled the impact of the pore size distribution on filtration performance to be evaluated. Filtration experiments were performed focusing on just the filter wall, starting from a clean filter until the transition to cake filtration (filtration efficiency > 99%). Time-resolved particle size distribution measurements were used to evaluate the progression of filtration performance and estimate trapped mass within the filter. The aluminum titanate filter, with a narrow pore size distribution, exhibited significantly better diffusion capture efficiency. The negative impact of higher flow velocity on diffusion capture efficiency was more pronounced for a narrower pore size distribution. Flow distributions measured using capillary-flow porometry were used to develop a cylindrical pore flow model to understand the impact of the differences in pore size distribution on observed trends in diffusion capture efficiency within a clean filter. The model helps demonstrate how large pores on the high end of a wider pore size distribution can carry a large fraction of the flow, with less efficient capture of small particles by diffusion. The experimental results and data demonstrate that the bubble point diameter and width of the pore size distribution significantly influence diffusion capture efficiencies for filters with very similar median pore diameter, porosity, and thickness.

aerosol filtration, Aftertreatment, ceramic exhaus↗
DOE OSTI2022

MAVS mediates a protective immune response in the brain to Rift Valley fever virus

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a highly pathogenic mosquito-borne virus capable of causing hepatitis, encephalitis, blindness, hemorrhagic syndrome, and death in humans and livestock. Upon aerosol infection with RVFV, the brain is a major site of viral replication and tissue damage, yet pathogenesis in this organ has been understudied. Here, we investigated the immune response in the brain of RVFV infected mice. In response to infection, microglia initiated robust transcriptional upregulation of antiviral immune genes, as well as increased levels of activation markers and cytokine secretion that is dependent on mitochondrial antiviral-signaling protein (MAVS) and independent of toll-like receptors 3 and 7. In vivo , Mavs -/- mice displayed enhanced susceptibility to RVFV as determined by increased brain viral burden and higher mortality. Single-cell RNA sequence analysis identified defects in type I interferon and interferon responsive gene expression within microglia in Mavs -/- mice, as well as dysregulated lymphocyte infiltration. The results of this study provide a crucial step towards understanding the precise molecular mechanisms by which RVFV infection is controlled in the brain and will help inform the development of vaccines and antiviral therapies that are effective in preventing encephalitis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep-learning-derived planetary boundary layer height from conventional meteorological measurements

Abstract. The planetary boundary layer (PBL) height (PBLH) is an important parameter for various meteorological and climate studies. This study presents a multi-structure deep neural network (DNN) model, which can estimate PBLH by integrating the morning temperature profiles and surface meteorological observations. The DNN model is developed by leveraging a rich dataset of PBLH derived from long-standing radiosonde records augmented with high-resolution micro-pulse lidar and Doppler lidar observations. We access the performance of the DNN with an ensemble of 10 members, each featuring distinct hidden-layer structures, which collectively yield a robust 27-year PBLH dataset over the southern Great Plains from 1994 to 2020. The influence of various meteorological factors on PBLH is rigorously analyzed through the importance test. Moreover, the DNN model's accuracy is evaluated against radiosonde observations and juxtaposed with conventional remote sensing methodologies, including Doppler lidar, ceilometer, Raman lidar, and micro-pulse lidar. The DNN model exhibits reliable performance across diverse conditions and demonstrates lower biases relative to remote sensing methods. In addition, the DNN model, originally trained over a plain region, demonstrates remarkable adaptability when applied to the heterogeneous terrains and climates encountered during the GoAmazon (Green Ocean Amazon; tropical rainforest) and CACTI (Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions; middle-latitude mountain) campaigns. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of deep learning models in estimating PBLH, enhancing our understanding of boundary layer processes with implications for improving the representation of PBL in weather forecasting and climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diurnal evolution of non-precipitating marine stratocumuli in a large-eddy simulation ensemble

Abstract. We explore the cloud system evolution of non-precipitating marine stratocumuli with a focus on the impacts of the diurnal cycle and free-tropospheric (FT) humidity based on an ensemble of 244 large-eddy simulations generated by perturbing initial thermodynamic profiles and aerosol conditions. Cases are categorized based on their degree of decoupling and the cloud liquid water path (LWPc, based on model columns with cloud optical depths greater than one). A budget analysis method is proposed to analyze the evolution of cloud water in both coupled and decoupled boundary layers. More coupled clouds start with a relatively low LWPc and cloud fraction (fc) but experience the least decrease in LWPc and fc during the daytime. More decoupled clouds undergo greater daytime reduction in LWPc and fc, especially those with higher LWPc at sunrise because they suffer from faster weakening of net radiative cooling. During the nighttime, a positive correlation between FT humidity and the LWPc emerges, consistent with higher FT humidity reducing both radiative cooling and the humidity jump, both of which reduce entrainment and increase LWPc. The LWPc is more likely to decrease during the nighttime for a larger LWPc and greater inversion base height (zi), conditions under which entrainment dominates as turbulence develops. In the morning, the rate of the LWPc reduction depends on the LWPc at sunrise, zi, and the degree of decoupling, with distinct contributions from subsidence and radiation.

Chen, Yao-Sheng (ORCID:0000000208354132)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Beyond PCA: Additional Dimension Reduction Techniques to Consider in the Development of Climate Fingerprints

Abstract Dimension reduction techniques are an essential part of the climate analyst’s toolkit. Due to the enormous scale of climate data, dimension reduction methods are used to identify major patterns of variability within climate dynamics, to create compelling and informative visualizations, and to quantify major named modes such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Principal components analysis (PCA), also known as the method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), is the most commonly used form of dimension reduction, characterized by a remarkable confluence of attractive mathematical, statistical, and computational properties. Despite its ubiquity, PCA suffers from several difficulties relevant to climate science: high computational burden with large datasets, decreased statistical accuracy in high dimensions, and difficulties comparing across multiple datasets. In this paper, we introduce several variants of PCA that are likely to be of use in climate sciences and address these problems. Specifically, we introduce non-negative , sparse , and tensor PCA and demonstrate how each approach provides superior pattern recognition in climate data. We also discuss approaches to comparing PCA-family results within and across datasets in a domain-relevant manner. We demonstrate these approaches through an analysis of several runs of the E3SM climate model from 1991 to 1995, focusing on the simulated response to the Mt. Pinatubo eruption; our findings are consistent with a recently identified stratospheric warming fingerprint associated with this type of stratospheric aerosol injection.

Weylandt, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2024

Project Title: Adaptive Vertical Grid Enhancement for E3SM (Final Technical Report)

During the first phase of the project (2018/05-2021/05), we proved the hypothesis that, without tuning, high vertical resolution improves the representation of unresolved, parameterized low altitude clouds such as stratocumulus clouds in global climate models. We evaluated the effectiveness of the newly developed computational framework, Framework for Improvement by Vertical Enhancement (FIVE) by implementing it into E3SM. FIVE aims to improve representation of the target cloud, low level cloud for this project, with use of a locally high vertical resolution for computation of selected processes. FIVE was assessed via direct comparison among E3SM, E3SM-FIVE, and satellite data as well as a newly developed ensemble artificial neural network methodology. We demonstrated that E3SM-FIVE remarkably improves marine stratocumulus representation. To advance the FIVE methodology, we took a first step toward the adaptive vertical grid in the FIVE method by modifying the E3SM single column model. For future application of FIVE to the global storm resolving model with a few km horizontal grid resolution, we developed the vertical-meridional two-dimensional (2D) Hadley circulation model, which allows one to run simulations with much higher vertical resolution and significantly longer duration than current three-dimensional global storm resolving model. During the second phase of the project (2021/05-2023/11; period for this technical report), we sought a way to appropriately transform FIVE to a regionalized version of FIVE, which allows one to select locations with/without FIVE. In parallel, we demonstrated that E3SM-FIVE with a 25-km mesh significantly reduced the bias associated with coastal stratocumulus. Furthermore, we showed that the same improvement was able to be obtained with the use of both the Regional Refined Model (RRM) targeted to one of the stratocumulus regions with 25-km resolution and FIVE. We explored a new implementation strategy of FIVE with our 2D Hadley circulation model. In parallel we applied the 2D Hadley circulation model to study the double intertropical convergence zone bias with storm resolving model resolution and aerosol-cloud interactions within the Hadley circulation with near large eddy simulation resolution. Last, we have been investigating Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds with large eddy simulations in order to improve their representation in global models. During the course of the entire project, 6 journal articles were published, and 3 manuscripts are currently in preparation. We gave a total of 30 presentations at various domestic and international conferences. In addition we gave 6 seminar talks at universities and a national laboratory. E3SM- FIVE is available as a branch of E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constraining the particle-scale diversity of black carbon light absorption using a unified framework

Abstract. Atmospheric black carbon (BC), the strongest absorber of visible solar radiation in the atmosphere, manifests across a wide spectrum of morphologies and compositional heterogeneity. Phenomenologically, the distribution of BC among diverse particles of varied composition gives rise to enhancement of its light absorption capabilities by over twofold in comparison to that of nascent or unmixed homogeneous BC. This situation has challenged the modeling community to consider the full complexity and diversity of BC on a per-particle basis for accurate estimation of its light absorption. The conventionally adopted core–shell approximation, although computationally inexpensive, is inadequate not only in estimating but also capturing absorption trends for ambient BC. Here we develop a unified framework that encompasses the complex diversity in BC morphology and composition using a single metric, the phase shift parameter (ρBC), which quantifies how much phase shift the incoming light waves encounter across a particle compared to that in its absence. We systematically investigate variations in ρBC across the multi-space distribution of BC morphology, mixing state, mass, and composition as reported by field and laboratory observations. We find that ρBC>1 leads to decreased absorption by BC, which explains the weaker absorption enhancements observed in certain regional BC compared to laboratory results of similar mixing state. We formulate universal scaling laws centered on ρBC and provide physics-based insights regarding core–shell approximation overestimating BC light absorption. We conclude by packaging our framework in an open-source Python application to facilitate community-level use in future BC-related research. The package has two main functionalities. The first functionality is for forward problems, wherein experimentally measured BC mixing state and assumed BC morphology are input, and the aerosol absorption properties are output. The second functionality is for inverse problems, wherein experimentally measured BC mixing state and absorption are input, and the morphology of BC is returned. Further, if absorption is measured at multiple wavelengths, the package facilitates the estimation of the imaginary refractive index of coating materials by combining the forward and inverse procedures. Our framework thus provides a computationally inexpensive source for calculation of absorption by BC and can be used to constrain light absorption throughout the atmospheric lifetime of BC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building a machine learning surrogate model for wildfire activities within a global Earth system model

Abstract. Wildfire is an important ecosystem process, influencing land biogeophysical and biogeochemical dynamics and atmospheric composition. Fire-driven loss of vegetation cover, for example, directly modifies the surface energy budget as a consequence of changing albedo, surface roughness, and partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes. Carbon dioxide and methane emitted by fires contribute to a positive atmospheric forcing, whereas emissions of carbonaceous aerosols may contribute to surface cooling. Process-based modeling of wildfires in Earth system land models is challenging due to limited understanding of human, climate, and ecosystem controls on fire counts, fire size, and burned area. Integration of mechanistic wildfire models within Earth system models requires careful parameter calibration, which is computationally expensive and subject to equifinality. To explore alternative approaches, we present a deep neural network (DNN) scheme that surrogates the process-based wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) interface. The DNN wildfire model accurately simulates observed burned area with over 90 % higher accuracy with a large reduction in parameterization time compared with the current process-based wildfire model. The surrogate wildfire model successfully captured the observed monthly regional burned area during validation period 2011 to 2015 (coefficient of determination, R2=0.93). Since the DNN wildfire model has the same input and output requirements as the E3SM process-based wildfire model, our results demonstrate the applicability of machine learning for high accuracy and efficient large-scale land model development and predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Establishing Isotopic Measurement Capabilities using Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy for the Molten Salt Reactor Campaign

Proof-of-principle H isotope ratios of aqueous aerosol systems and liquid droplets on filter paper have been measured using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) with root mean square error of prediction values down to 1.9%. Molten salt reactors (MSRs) will consist of a complex chemical and radiological system consistently producing new fission products as the reactor operates. Some of these fission products and/or their daughter species will leave the salt in the reactor off-gas. Monitoring the composition of the off-gas, as well as the salt itself, is important for monitoring reactor performance, including burnup, corrosion, and the concentration of impurities. Tritium is of concern for MSRs because it will be produced from the irradiation of key salt constituents, including Li and Be. LIBS offers an avenue for in situ salt and off-gas monitoring by firing a laser onto or into the sample stream to generate a plasma. The plasma light can be monitored to measure an elemental fingerprint of the sample. Extending this analysis to include isotopic ratios offers a critical expansion of the in situ monitoring capabilities being developed. This study demonstrates the expansion of Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s LIBS capabilities to monitor isotopes and shows how simple calibrations may provide rapid semiquantitative models.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wet-radome attenuation in ARM cloud radars and its utilization in radar calibration using disdrometer measurements

Abstract. A relative calibration technique has been developed for the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Ka-band ARM Zenith Radars (KAZRs). This method uses the signal attenuation caused by water on the radome to estimate reflectivity factor (Ze) offsets. The wet-radome attenuation (WRA) is assumed to follow a log-linear relationship with rainfall rate during light and moderate rain, as measured by a collocated surface disdrometer. The technique has an uncertainty of approximately 3 dB, due to factors such as disdrometer measurement error, rain variability between radar and disdrometer sample volumes, and the fitting function's uncertainty for the WRA behavior. A practical advantage of this WRA-based approach to shorter-wavelength radar monitoring is that, while it requires a reference disdrometer, it proves feasible for a wider range of collocated disdrometer measurements compared to traditional direct disdrometer comparison at the onset of light rain. This technique thus offers a cost-effective monitoring tool for remote or long-term radar deployments. This calibration technique was applied during the ARM Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) from October 2021 through September 2022. The estimated Ze offsets were compared against traditional radar calibration and monitoring methods using available datasets from this campaign. Results show that the WRA-based offsets align closely with mean offsets found between cloud radars and from direct disdrometer comparison near the onset of rain, while also reflecting similar offset and campaign-long trends when compared to collocated, independently calibrated radar wind profilers. Nevertheless, overall, the KAZR Ze offsets estimated during TRACER remained stable at approximately 2 dB lower than the disdrometer estimates from the campaign start until the end of June 2022; afterward, the offsets increased to around 7 dB by the campaign's end. This increase is linked to a drop of about 1 dB in transmitter power toward the end of the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis

Abstract. In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales that could have been potentially predicted with accurate and timely estimates of the associated stratospheric aerosol loads. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosols on the climate experienced during the years that followed those eruptions through the use of decadal predictions. The interest of conducting this exercise with climate predictions is that, thanks to the initialisation, they start from the observed climate conditions at the time of the eruptions, which helps to disentangle the climatic changes due to the initial conditions and internal variability from the volcanic forcing. The protocol consists of repeating the retrospective predictions that are initialised just before the last three major volcanic eruptions but without the inclusion of their volcanic forcing, which are then compared with the baseline predictions to disentangle the simulated volcanic effects upon climate. We present the results from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal prediction systems. These systems show strong agreement in predicting the well-known post-volcanic radiative effects following the three eruptions, which induce a long-lasting cooling in the ocean. Furthermore, the multi-model multi-eruption composite is consistent with previous work reporting an acceleration of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex and the development of El Niño conditions the first year after the eruption, followed by a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the subsequent years. Our analysis reveals that all these dynamical responses are both model- and eruption-dependent. A novel aspect of this study is that we also assess whether the volcanic forcing improves the realism of the predictions. Comparing the predicted surface temperature anomalies in the two sets of hindcasts (with and without volcanic forcing) with observations we show that, overall, including the volcanic forcing results in better predictions. The volcanic forcing is found to be particularly relevant for reproducing the observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic Ocean following the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo.

Bilbao, Roberto (ORCID:0000000307294980)↗